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🧵 1/7 The real bottleneck in frontier research isn’t information. It’s judgment: what do you trust when the evidence is incomplete, conflicting, and expensive to validate? Recently, Apodex-FutureFlow ( Apodex )—driven by their open 35B model as its backbone—ranked #1 on the FutureX prediction leaderboard for 3 of the... show more

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Haaland finished his World Cup with seven goals. Messi and Mbappé are now level on eight, with one match left each. So I asked Apodex Apodex a simple question with a not-so-simple answer: who wins the Golden Boot? It first gave Messi a 65% chance, Mbappé 25%, and the field 10%. But the useful part wasn’t the pick. It was what happened when I challenged the reasoning. I asked Apodex to audit its own forecast. It found that the first analysis had underweighted the difficulty of Messi’s final, while not fully translating the more open—but rotation-sensitive—third-place match into Mbappé’s chances. The result: Messi fell from 65% to 61%, while Mbappé rose from 25% to 29%. I then made it remove every claim that couldn’t be traced to reliable sources. Using only five verified inputs—goals, assists, minutes played, FIFA’s tiebreak rules, and the remaining fixtures—it settled at: Messi: 60% Mbappé: 30% Others: 10% The core logic is surprisingly clean: both have eight goals, but Messi leads 4–3 in assists. If they finish level on goals and that assist gap remains, Messi wins. Mbappé’s clearest route is to outscore him. That’s what made this test interesting. Apodex didn’t pretend to know the future—it exposed the evidence, the uncertainty, and the exact reason its confidence changed. This evidence-driven approach has also been validated by Apodex’s recent performance on the FutureX forecasting benchmark. Timestamped on July 16. I’ll come back after the final and check the result. This is a probability forecast based on current evidence, not betting advice. Try it:

Haaland finished his World Cup with seven goals. Messi and Mbappé are now level on eight, with one match left each. So I asked Apodex Apodex a simple question with a not-so-simple answer: who wins the Golden Boot? It first gave Messi a 65% chance, Mbappé 25%, and the field 10%. But the useful part wasn’t the pick. It was what happened when I challenged the reasoning. I asked Apodex to audit its own forecast. It found that the first analysis had underweighted the difficulty of Messi’s final, while not fully translating the more open—but rotation-sensitive—third-place match into Mbappé’s chances. The result: Messi fell from 65% to 61%, while Mbappé rose from 25% to 29%. I then made it remove every claim that couldn’t be traced to reliable sources. Using only five verified inputs—goals, assists, minutes played, FIFA’s tiebreak rules, and the remaining fixtures—it settled at: Messi: 60% Mbappé: 30% Others: 10% The core logic is surprisingly clean: both have eight goals, but Messi leads 4–3 in assists. If they finish level on goals and that assist gap remains, Messi wins. Mbappé’s clearest route is to outscore him. That’s what made this test interesting. Apodex didn’t pretend to know the future—it exposed the evidence, the uncertainty, and the exact reason its confidence changed. This evidence-driven approach has also been validated by Apodex’s recent performance on the FutureX forecasting benchmark. Timestamped on July 16. I’ll come back after the final and check the result. This is a probability forecast based on current evidence, not betting advice. Try it:

Ashlyn He

55,580 Aufrufe • vor 8 Tagen

1/5🧵 The University of Florida FLORIDA is hiring a new dean for its College of Liberal Arts, where 25% OF ALL UF STUDENTS are enrolled. 4 Finalists. ALL radical DEI progressives. Watch the intro video and see what was said in their interviews in the 🧵👇. Personnel IS Policy.

1/5🧵 The University of Florida FLORIDA is hiring a new dean for its College of Liberal Arts, where 25% OF ALL UF STUDENTS are enrolled. 4 Finalists. ALL radical DEI progressives. Watch the intro video and see what was said in their interviews in the 🧵👇. Personnel IS Policy.

CommiesOnCampus

45,921 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

📊 After ranking #1, how do model ranks evolve over time? We analyzed how every top performer since mid-2023, when OpenAI’s GPT‑4 was at the top of the leaderboard. As of today, leaders seem to stay at the #1 spot for only 35 days on average. The leading model typically drops out of the top 5 within 5 months, and out of the top 10 within 7 months. Previous leaders have fallen substantially, with o1 now at #56 and Claude 3 Opus at #139 as progress moves faster and faster. We’ll see what 2026 brings.

📊 After ranking #1, how do model ranks evolve over time? We analyzed how every top performer since mid-2023, when OpenAI’s GPT‑4 was at the top of the leaderboard. As of today, leaders seem to stay at the #1 spot for only 35 days on average. The leading model typically drops out of the top 5 within 5 months, and out of the top 10 within 7 months. Previous leaders have fallen substantially, with o1 now at #56 and Claude 3 Opus at #139 as progress moves faster and faster. We’ll see what 2026 brings.

Arena.ai

55,526 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

SOARING HIGHER: Purdue Engineering is now the No. 2 ranked public engineering college in the country. With three specialties in the Top 5 and eight in the Top 10, our 2026 research and graduate engineering performance builds on this triple crown of national distinctions: -No. 1 producer of engineering graduates -No. 1 engineering college for market demand -No. 1 ranked online engineering master’s degrees in all 5 specialties ranked by U.S. News & World Report More: #VictoryLap #VictoriesAndHeroes

SOARING HIGHER: Purdue Engineering is now the No. 2 ranked public engineering college in the country. With three specialties in the Top 5 and eight in the Top 10, our 2026 research and graduate engineering performance builds on this triple crown of national distinctions: -No. 1 producer of engineering graduates -No. 1 engineering college for market demand -No. 1 ranked online engineering master’s degrees in all 5 specialties ranked by U.S. News & World Report More: #VictoryLap #VictoriesAndHeroes

Purdue Engineering

12,871 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

auto-research is starting to gain traction as a very viable paradigm for creating useful research discovery. now, that paradigm is still in its infancy and the infrastructure to hold all that trail of context as the agents blaze through experiments isn't well defined (to say the least). on that topic, I had the chance to chat with my boys francesco and giulio from paradigma about what underlying infra is needed to make this paradigm work. the paradigma's paradigm, which involves copious amount of DAGs, make this auto-research paradigm a paradigmatic case of essential infrastructure. here's the full video in full: - 0:00 - what is missing from auto-research? - 2:02 - giulio and francesco ai journey - 8:10 - research infra is the bottleneck? - 10:18 - paradigma vision of autonomous research - 13:17 - “important discovery per joules” - 17:15 - why is DAG the unit of research for auto-research? - 20:40 - is paradigma trying to replace the research publication? - 24:50 - how does knowledge is shared between experiments in the DAG? - 27:34 - what is even auto-research lol? - 33:53 - the value of the human mind in this auto-research future. - 37:00 - how do you reconcile hallucination in this auto-research paradigm? - 41:33 - the adoption of auto-research across varied fields? - 47:30 - ✨ introduction to the auto-research infrastructure. ✨ - 56:55 - where is the code? - 59:10 - full IDE next? - 1:03:20 - the place of the human in this DAG / code quality? manual node? token spent? - 1:16:02 - who’s the user for auto-research? - 1:18:13 - how to validate bad DAG? - 1:20:18 - ✨ auto-research agent results ✨ - 1:22:53 - ✨ how a big research DAG looks like? ✨ - 1:25:10 - how to get the canonical DAG for the final result? - 1:27:50 - the auto-research DAG being the new pre-print? - 1:30:05 - what’s next for paradigma and the auto-research infra? - 1:35:00 - what are they excited about research wise? enjoyyyyy my guys 🌹

auto-research is starting to gain traction as a very viable paradigm for creating useful research discovery. now, that paradigm is still in its infancy and the infrastructure to hold all that trail of context as the agents blaze through experiments isn't well defined (to say the least). on that topic, I had the chance to chat with my boys francesco and giulio from paradigma about what underlying infra is needed to make this paradigm work. the paradigma's paradigm, which involves copious amount of DAGs, make this auto-research paradigm a paradigmatic case of essential infrastructure. here's the full video in full: - 0:00 - what is missing from auto-research? - 2:02 - giulio and francesco ai journey - 8:10 - research infra is the bottleneck? - 10:18 - paradigma vision of autonomous research - 13:17 - “important discovery per joules” - 17:15 - why is DAG the unit of research for auto-research? - 20:40 - is paradigma trying to replace the research publication? - 24:50 - how does knowledge is shared between experiments in the DAG? - 27:34 - what is even auto-research lol? - 33:53 - the value of the human mind in this auto-research future. - 37:00 - how do you reconcile hallucination in this auto-research paradigm? - 41:33 - the adoption of auto-research across varied fields? - 47:30 - ✨ introduction to the auto-research infrastructure. ✨ - 56:55 - where is the code? - 59:10 - full IDE next? - 1:03:20 - the place of the human in this DAG / code quality? manual node? token spent? - 1:16:02 - who’s the user for auto-research? - 1:18:13 - how to validate bad DAG? - 1:20:18 - ✨ auto-research agent results ✨ - 1:22:53 - ✨ how a big research DAG looks like? ✨ - 1:25:10 - how to get the canonical DAG for the final result? - 1:27:50 - the auto-research DAG being the new pre-print? - 1:30:05 - what’s next for paradigma and the auto-research infra? - 1:35:00 - what are they excited about research wise? enjoyyyyy my guys 🌹

Yacine Mahdid

12,091 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

OML is a failed project. They introduced a leaderboard, but as I’ve said before, it’s full of manipulation and unfair changes. They already modified the rules once, and now I have solid proof of their games. Look at this person ranked #2 on the leaderboard they haven’t even interacted or engaged with the project, yet they’re sitting in the top spots. How do you explain that? I hope people stop wasting their time and effort on such a failed project. OML #OML #lettertomama

OML is a failed project. They introduced a leaderboard, but as I’ve said before, it’s full of manipulation and unfair changes. They already modified the rules once, and now I have solid proof of their games. Look at this person ranked #2 on the leaderboard they haven’t even interacted or engaged with the project, yet they’re sitting in the top spots. How do you explain that? I hope people stop wasting their time and effort on such a failed project. OML #OML #lettertomama

Saviola57

16,784 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

RFK Jr. gave a calm, straightforward answer to a mom on Dr. Phil. When asked what he’d tell a new mom about vaccines, he said: Do your own research. You research the stroller. You research the food. You should research the medicine too. It’s your responsibility as a parent in a democracy. This one hit me. In an era where trust in institutions is low and information feels overwhelming, his point feels grounded, parents ultimately carry the weight of these decisions. Whether you’re pro-vaccine, cautious, or somewhere in between, encouraging informed consent and personal responsibility is something we should all be able to agree on. Blind trust or blind rejection both carry risks. What’s your take? Do you think parents should do deep independent research on vaccines, or is it better to mostly trust the standard medical guidance?

RFK Jr. gave a calm, straightforward answer to a mom on Dr. Phil. When asked what he’d tell a new mom about vaccines, he said: Do your own research. You research the stroller. You research the food. You should research the medicine too. It’s your responsibility as a parent in a democracy. This one hit me. In an era where trust in institutions is low and information feels overwhelming, his point feels grounded, parents ultimately carry the weight of these decisions. Whether you’re pro-vaccine, cautious, or somewhere in between, encouraging informed consent and personal responsibility is something we should all be able to agree on. Blind trust or blind rejection both carry risks. What’s your take? Do you think parents should do deep independent research on vaccines, or is it better to mostly trust the standard medical guidance?

Camus

54,769 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

»Do you take us for fools? Do you think you can just completely remove the disguise and we won’t notice?« #COP28 is going to be a disaster. And the whole COP process is in the hammerlock of the fossil fuel industry. Al Gore exposes all their plans in a brilliant way! 👏 🧵 1/7

»Do you take us for fools? Do you think you can just completely remove the disguise and we won’t notice?« #COP28 is going to be a disaster. And the whole COP process is in the hammerlock of the fossil fuel industry. Al Gore exposes all their plans in a brilliant way! 👏 🧵 1/7

Michael Flammer #KlimaVor8

273,553 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

What if Cardano became the backbone of global agriculture? The 5am earth proposal could bring: 2M+ monthly active users 7–10M monthly transactions Up to $1.2B in ecosystem contribution All driven by real farmers, real commodities, and real agriculture workflows on Cardano. This is what mainstream adoption looks like.

What if Cardano became the backbone of global agriculture? The 5am earth proposal could bring: 2M+ monthly active users 7–10M monthly transactions Up to $1.2B in ecosystem contribution All driven by real farmers, real commodities, and real agriculture workflows on Cardano. This is what mainstream adoption looks like.

PALM Economy

13,663 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

[#JinxChefandMyFridge] 250720 🐹I kicked off the concert in Goyang, and we're heading to Japan, then the U.S., London, and the Netherlands. 🤵ARMYs around the world must be waiting for you. Jin’s nickname is Worldwide Handsome And there’s objective research to back it up: 👑Ranked #1 for the most naturally beautiful face with artistic golden proportions 👑Ranked #1 for the most mathematically perfect face in the world 👑Ranked #1 Chosen by plastic surgeons as the most scientifically flawless face 👑Ranked #1 Selected by Czech doll artisans as the most handsome face 🤵Overwhelming No.1 in the Handsome Category. 👨‍🍳Let’s add one more! Ranked #1 handsome face on Chef & My Fridge choose! 🤵Hands up, everyone! 🤵It’s unanimous! Included objective research too — Chosen unanimously by the Chef & My Fridge chefs as the #1 sculpture-like face! 🐹Thank you very much! 🤵I'm curious what it's like to live a life with the nickname "Worldwide Handsome." #JIN #방탄소년단진 #냉장고를부탁해 방탄소년단 JTBC LOVE

[#JinxChefandMyFridge] 250720 🐹I kicked off the concert in Goyang, and we're heading to Japan, then the U.S., London, and the Netherlands. 🤵ARMYs around the world must be waiting for you. Jin’s nickname is Worldwide Handsome And there’s objective research to back it up: 👑Ranked #1 for the most naturally beautiful face with artistic golden proportions 👑Ranked #1 for the most mathematically perfect face in the world 👑Ranked #1 Chosen by plastic surgeons as the most scientifically flawless face 👑Ranked #1 Selected by Czech doll artisans as the most handsome face 🤵Overwhelming No.1 in the Handsome Category. 👨‍🍳Let’s add one more! Ranked #1 handsome face on Chef & My Fridge choose! 🤵Hands up, everyone! 🤵It’s unanimous! Included objective research too — Chosen unanimously by the Chef & My Fridge chefs as the #1 sculpture-like face! 🐹Thank you very much! 🤵I'm curious what it's like to live a life with the nickname "Worldwide Handsome." #JIN #방탄소년단진 #냉장고를부탁해 방탄소년단 JTBC LOVE

star_jin

33,804 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

SIGNS OF THE SECOND COMING OF CHRIST. (This event is 7 years after the Rapture of the Church) 1. THE PEACE ACCORD WITH ISRAEL 2. THE RAPTURE OF THE CHURCH 3. THE INVASION OF ISRAEL 4. THE GREAT TRIBULATION The first two that would take place almost immediately after each other; the peace accord with Israel and the Rapture of the Church. 1 Thessalonians 5:3-4 AMP [3] While they are saying, “Peace and safety [all is well and secure!]” then [in a moment unforeseen] destruction will come upon them suddenly like labor pains on a woman with child, and they will absolutely not escape [for there will be no way to escape the judgment of the Lord]. [4] But you, believers, [all you who believe in Christ as Savior and acknowledge Him as God’s Son] are not in spiritual darkness [nor held by its power], that the day [of judgment] would overtake you [by surprise] like a thief; We may, or may not be here when the peace accord is signed, (as it may not take effect immediately after it is signed), but we would be gone before it takes effect; the 7 year period of promised peace by the antichrist. 1 Corinthians 15 :52 NLT [52] It will happen in a moment, in the blink of an eye, when the last trumpet is blown. For when the trumpet sounds, those who have died will be raised to live forever. And we who are living will also be transformed. Be #RaptureReady #RaptureModeActivated #FirstFlightGang

SIGNS OF THE SECOND COMING OF CHRIST. (This event is 7 years after the Rapture of the Church) 1. THE PEACE ACCORD WITH ISRAEL 2. THE RAPTURE OF THE CHURCH 3. THE INVASION OF ISRAEL 4. THE GREAT TRIBULATION The first two that would take place almost immediately after each other; the peace accord with Israel and the Rapture of the Church. 1 Thessalonians 5:3-4 AMP [3] While they are saying, “Peace and safety [all is well and secure!]” then [in a moment unforeseen] destruction will come upon them suddenly like labor pains on a woman with child, and they will absolutely not escape [for there will be no way to escape the judgment of the Lord]. [4] But you, believers, [all you who believe in Christ as Savior and acknowledge Him as God’s Son] are not in spiritual darkness [nor held by its power], that the day [of judgment] would overtake you [by surprise] like a thief; We may, or may not be here when the peace accord is signed, (as it may not take effect immediately after it is signed), but we would be gone before it takes effect; the 7 year period of promised peace by the antichrist. 1 Corinthians 15 :52 NLT [52] It will happen in a moment, in the blink of an eye, when the last trumpet is blown. For when the trumpet sounds, those who have died will be raised to live forever. And we who are living will also be transformed. Be #RaptureReady #RaptureModeActivated #FirstFlightGang

SeyiB

12,146 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

OFFICIAL: SUNDERGAT GUIDE: 1. Build the Blundergat 2. Survive a few rounds in the Future (unsure if there's certain number of rounds or if its random) 3. Eventually, a zombie in a fire tornado will spawn somewhere on the map. Going up to it will make it fall. -The zombie will begin getting "drained" by other nearby zombies. It is recommended you do this step when there are 1-2 zombies left in the round. 4. Bring the zombie to the workbench and kill it with the Blundergat. 5. Repeat three more times (total of four). 6. Interact with the bench in the past and put the Blundergat in 7. Go to the future and pick it up

OFFICIAL: SUNDERGAT GUIDE: 1. Build the Blundergat 2. Survive a few rounds in the Future (unsure if there's certain number of rounds or if its random) 3. Eventually, a zombie in a fire tornado will spawn somewhere on the map. Going up to it will make it fall. -The zombie will begin getting "drained" by other nearby zombies. It is recommended you do this step when there are 1-2 zombies left in the round. 4. Bring the zombie to the workbench and kill it with the Blundergat. 5. Repeat three more times (total of four). 6. Interact with the bench in the past and put the Blundergat in 7. Go to the future and pick it up

COD: Zombies News

85,372 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

1/ Systems of record are the backbone of so many businesses–especially when they store valuable customer and prospect data (Salesforce does $35B a year in top line!). But AI is flipping the sales cycle on its head, redefining what it means to sell. CRMs and other sales tools can now have much more context, and context is what human beings use to make decisions. Joe Schmidt IV and I break down what this means for the future of sales and software.

1/ Systems of record are the backbone of so many businesses–especially when they store valuable customer and prospect data (Salesforce does $35B a year in top line!). But AI is flipping the sales cycle on its head, redefining what it means to sell. CRMs and other sales tools can now have much more context, and context is what human beings use to make decisions. Joe Schmidt IV and I break down what this means for the future of sales and software.

Marc Andrusko

116,855 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

1/ Tencent releases HY World 1.5 (WorldPlay), an open-source real-time world model with 24fps A streaming video diffusion model that enables real-time, interactive world modeling with long-term geometric consistency In direct comparison to Genie 3, it's technically inferior, and there's no information on how long the consistency will last. However, Tencent has released a significant world model as open source for the first time, making it available to everyone. A few more examples, a thread 🧵

1/ Tencent releases HY World 1.5 (WorldPlay), an open-source real-time world model with 24fps A streaming video diffusion model that enables real-time, interactive world modeling with long-term geometric consistency In direct comparison to Genie 3, it's technically inferior, and there's no information on how long the consistency will last. However, Tencent has released a significant world model as open source for the first time, making it available to everyone. A few more examples, a thread 🧵

Chubby♨️

37,776 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

🚨🍌Big Reveal: who was "Nano Banana?" The anonymous model, “nano-banana,” that caught the world's attention with its ability to follow complex instructions, preserve character identity, and maintain contextual details was: Gemini-2.5-Flash-Image-Preview by Google DeepMind 🍌✨ - Now ranked #1 on the Image Edit Arena - Also ranked #1 for Text-to-Image In two weeks, “nano-banana” has driven over 5 million votes to the Image Edit Arena. With 2.5M+ votes for this model, it is the highest number of votes any model has received, with the largest Elo score lead (171) in Arena history. Congrats to the Google DeepMind team on this incredible milestone in image edit and generation. 👏

🚨🍌Big Reveal: who was "Nano Banana?" The anonymous model, “nano-banana,” that caught the world's attention with its ability to follow complex instructions, preserve character identity, and maintain contextual details was: Gemini-2.5-Flash-Image-Preview by Google DeepMind 🍌✨ - Now ranked #1 on the Image Edit Arena - Also ranked #1 for Text-to-Image In two weeks, “nano-banana” has driven over 5 million votes to the Image Edit Arena. With 2.5M+ votes for this model, it is the highest number of votes any model has received, with the largest Elo score lead (171) in Arena history. Congrats to the Google DeepMind team on this incredible milestone in image edit and generation. 👏

Arena.ai

106,535 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Absolutely cinema market. Polysights just flagged 42 fresh "Yes" bets vs. only 1 on "No" in the last two days. The paradox? Almost every "Top Trader" on the leaderboard is stacking "No." Meanwhile, a wave of brand-new wallets is aggressively frontrunning a Jan 31 exit. Its the "Experts" vs. the "Shadows." One side is about to get liquidated. Are you with the leaderboard or the "insiders"? Market:

AshenSoul

90,161 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

As a 36 year old born and raised Canadian, I learnt 3 things about living in a Canadian winter today. 1. Do not trust a snowbank. Even when you drove through larger ones that were all powder with ease. No two snowbanks are the same. 2. When everyone else is staying at home and you’re pretty much the only person on the roads - it’s a sign you should stay home. 3. Tesla Model 3 is nice to have on hand to help get your Model Y out of a snow bank. Easy peasy. It’s time to buy a winter home in the south 😂

As a 36 year old born and raised Canadian, I learnt 3 things about living in a Canadian winter today. 1. Do not trust a snowbank. Even when you drove through larger ones that were all powder with ease. No two snowbanks are the same. 2. When everyone else is staying at home and you’re pretty much the only person on the roads - it’s a sign you should stay home. 3. Tesla Model 3 is nice to have on hand to help get your Model Y out of a snow bank. Easy peasy. It’s time to buy a winter home in the south 😂

Eric @ Drive Protected ™

1,031,584 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

ROCKS' TURNS 50 TODAY 🤘 On May 3, 1976, Aerosmith released their fourth studio album, ‘Rocks’. Rocks was ranked #176 on Rolling Stone's list of the 500 Greatest Albums of All Time. The album shipped platinum upon its release and has since gone quadruple platinum. Tracking: 1. “Back in the Saddle” 2. “Last Child” 3. “Rats in the Cellar” 4. “Combination” 5. “Sick as a Dog” 6. “Nobody’s Fault” 7. “Get the Lead Out” 8. “Lick and a Promise” 9. “Home Tonight”

ROCKS' TURNS 50 TODAY 🤘 On May 3, 1976, Aerosmith released their fourth studio album, ‘Rocks’. Rocks was ranked #176 on Rolling Stone's list of the 500 Greatest Albums of All Time. The album shipped platinum upon its release and has since gone quadruple platinum. Tracking: 1. “Back in the Saddle” 2. “Last Child” 3. “Rats in the Cellar” 4. “Combination” 5. “Sick as a Dog” 6. “Nobody’s Fault” 7. “Get the Lead Out” 8. “Lick and a Promise” 9. “Home Tonight”

Aerosmith

39,379 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten