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🇸🇦🇾🇪 Saudi Arabia built its east-west energy system for one nightmare scenario: Hormuz gets shut. Move the oil across the country to Yanbu and ship it through the Red Sea instead. Malcolm Nance argues the Houthis may have now broken that backup plan too. His assessment is that the Houthi advance through Mocha, Dahbub and onto Perim Island has given them physical control over the narrowest part of Bab el-Mandeb, where shipping passes close enough to shore that even relatively simple weapons become dangerous. And the collapse was startlingly fast. Nance says Saudi-backed forces that were supposed to number roughly 40,000 in the sector may in reality have had only a few thousand troops, with many positions abandoned as the Houthis advanced. “They dropped their stuff and they ran for their life.” The Houthis then seized weapons, bases, islands and the coastline leading directly to the strait. That leaves Riyadh with an ugly equation. Hormuz is constrained by Iran. The east-west pipeline has been attacked. And now the Red Sea outlet is threatened by a Houthi force that Nance believes Saudi Arabia cannot dislodge with airstrikes alone. “The Bab el-Mandab door has slammed shut.” Nance calls this an existential moment for Saudi Arabia. Either Riyadh accepts that the Houthis now control the chokepoint and cuts a deal, or it commits to a real ground war in Yemen, something the Saudis tried before with fairly miserable results. For decades, Saudi Arabia’s security model rested on one assumption: If things got bad enough, America would step in. This time, Trump said no. That may be the most important development of all. Malcolm Nance

Mario Nawfal

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