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37-yard FG is good by Centennial’s Kenneth Junger. Mater Dei 22, Centennial 17. HALFTIME. Despite no Husan Longstreet and being down 15-0 early, the Huskies are hanging around.

10,566 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren •via X (Twitter)

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Ending 2025 Take On The U.S. Economy…And An Apology From The Bottom Of My Heart For My Realistic Yet Pessimistic Takes On The State Of The Economy…. As 2025 ends, the U.S. economy still looks solid at the surface. Stocks are higher. GDP prints are strong. Unemployment remains low by historical standards. But once you step back and connect households, labor, credit, and real world activity, the picture becomes more fragile. This isn’t an economy in freefall. But it is one being carried by a shrinking set of supports while pressure builds underneath. Growth and Markets: Real Numbers, Narrow Support Real GDP grew at a 4.3% annualized pace in Q3, the strongest in two years, driven mainly by consumer spending (+3.5%) and exports (+8.8%). On paper, that looks like acceleration. The issue is what kind of spending is doing the work. Roughly 70% of GDP is consumption, and an increasing share reflects non discretionary or imputed costs, not confidence. Healthcare alone accounts for 17% of PCE, running near $3.6T annualized. That lifts GDP, but it says more about rising mandatory expenses than broad consumer strength. Markets told a different story. The S&P 500 gained 17–19%, the Nasdaq 21%, and the Dow 11%, powered by AI optimism and expectations of easier Fed policy. Asset prices moved ahead. Household reality did not. Labor and Sentiment: Cooling Is Becoming Visible The labor market is no longer tightening. Unemployment rose to 4.6% in November, up from 4.1% in January, with just 64,000 jobs added. Underemployment (U-6) climbed to 8.7%. Layoffs reached 1.17 million through November, up 54% year over year, concentrated in tech, healthcare, and industrials. Consumer sentiment reflects that shift. The University of Michigan index ended December at 52.9, nearly 30% lower YoY, while the Conference Board index fell to 89.1, its fifth straight monthly decline. Household Stress Is Broadening Debt pressure is spreading across categories… • Credit card delinquencies: 12.4%, exceeding 20% in lower income areas • Auto loans: 5.02%, a 15 year high • Student loans: 9.4%, rising sharply after repayment resumed • Mortgages: 3.76%, with FHA near 10.8% Bankruptcies are rising alongside it. Filings are up 8–10% YoY, with 717 large corporate cases, the highest since 2010. Individual filings rose 8%, with roughly 41,000 in November alone. CRE, Trade, and the Physical Economy Commercial real estate remains a pressure point. Office vacancy rates sit near 19%, well above long term norms. Industrial vacancies have edged higher, while retail remains comparatively tight. Trade policy added another layer of strain in 2025. Average tariffs moved above 15%, including 50% on steel and aluminum and 35% on Canadian goods complicating supply chains. Trucking: A Quiet Signal Freight continues to confirm the slowdown in goods demand. Truck tonnage rose just 0.2% in November, but remains down nearly 7% YoY. Spot rates are lower, and load postings are down 15–22%, pointing to soft volumes and ongoing capacity adjustment. Overall The U.S. economy is increasingly unbalanced. Growth is being padded by non discretionary spending, markets are running ahead of household fundamentals, labor is cooling, and credit stress is spreading. This is the late cycle phase where momentum fades quietly, long before the data forces a name onto it.

EndGame Macro

33,011 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

GPT image+Seedance 2.0 Video Prompt — 15 Seconds | 8 Scenes | 9:16 Create a cute, hyper-detailed claymation stop-motion video showing the step-by-step creation of a miniature traditional Phinisi sailing ship from colorful modeling clay. Keep the visual style consistent with the reference image: handcrafted clay texture, miniature diorama, bright tropical ocean, soft cinematic lighting, colorful and satisfying visuals. Scene 1 — 0:00–0:02 Top-down close-up of colorful clay pieces, wooden-style clay tools, tiny ropes and miniature ship accessories arranged neatly on a crafting table. A pair of small clay hands begins preparing the materials. Slow camera push-in. Scene 2 — 0:02–0:04 Close-up of hands shaping the brown clay into the curved wooden hull of the miniature Phinisi ship. Show fingerprints and realistic clay texture. Smooth stop-motion movements. Scene 3 — 0:04–0:06 The hull becomes more detailed as tiny windows, railings, decorative patterns and wooden planks are carefully added. Camera slowly rotates around the model. Scene 4 — 0:06–0:08 Two tall masts are placed precisely onto the ship. Tiny ropes and rigging appear piece by piece. Close-up macro shot emphasizing the craftsmanship. Scene 5 — 0:08–0:10 Cream-colored clay sails unfold and attach to the masts. The complete miniature ship begins to take shape. Camera changes to a low cinematic angle. Scene 6 — 0:10–0:12 Tiny cabin, deck details, windows, ropes and accessories are added. The camera moves smoothly along the side of the ship, revealing the intricate handcrafted details. Scene 7 — 0:12–0:14 The finished Phinisi ship is placed on a miniature turquoise ocean made from textured clay. Small waves move around the hull while the ship gently rocks. Scene 8 — 0:14–0:15 Wide cinematic final shot: the completed miniature Phinisi sailing peacefully across the bright blue clay ocean under a sunny tropical sky, with small clouds, palm trees and colorful scenery in the background. The ship gently moves with the waves. Style: premium clay animation, stop-motion, handcrafted miniature, pastel clay texture, ultra-detailed, colorful, cinematic lighting, macro photography, shallow depth of field, smooth camera movement, satisfying transformations, realistic miniature scale. Audio: soft clay-working sounds, gentle tapping and sculpting sounds, subtle ocean waves, light tropical ambience and soft cheerful background music. Negative Prompt: blurry details, distorted ship, extra masts, deformed hands, flickering, inconsistent objects, realistic human proportions, text overlays, watermark, logo, sudden camera movement, low-quality textures. Seedance 2.0

Soaima

13,089 Aufrufe • vor 11 Tagen

The problems in Russia’s oil and gas sector are already becoming systemic. Russia is refining less oil, transporting it at a higher cost, facing problems with export infrastructure, and already losing oil and gas revenues. Let’s take a look at what exactly is happening inside Russia. First, the Russian authorities themselves are no longer treating the shortage as a short-term disruption. A complete ban on diesel exports was introduced in early July, and it is quite likely to be extended through the end of the year. Gasoline exports are banned until January 31, 2027, and jet fuel exports until the end of November. Russia has also started importing additional petroleum products from Asia and Belarus. Second, Russia is physically refining less and less oil. According to Kpler, Russian refineries processed around 3.8 million barrels per day in July - the lowest level in more than two decades. EA Analytics estimates the figure even lower, at approximately 3.6 million barrels per day. For comparison, the normal level for this period in 2020-2025 was 5.3-5.6 million barrels per day. Third, Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries are continuing. A cycle has effectively formed: strike - repairs - partial recovery - another strike. Following the August 21 attack, the Perm Oil Refinery, with an annual capacity of 13.1 million tonnes, was completely shut down. Since August 2025, at least 25 Russian oil refineries have been targeted. Fourth, the diesel shortage is making the economy more expensive - increasing the cost of harvesting, reducing the resilience of Russia’s logistics system, and consequently affecting prices overall. Fifth, even the oil Russia manages to produce is becoming more difficult and expensive to export. In the first half of August, exports from western ports amounted to around 2.3 million barrels per day instead of the planned 2.7 million. Novorossiysk was particularly affected: shipments fell to around 400,000 barrels per day, compared with 800,000-1 million in June-July. Previously, problems at refineries could be partially offset by increasing crude oil exports. But when refineries, ports, terminals and tankers are all being targeted simultaneously, this becomes much harder. Exports have not collapsed, but they have become more expensive and less predictable. The same applies to petroleum products: in July, seaborne exports of fuel oil and vacuum gasoil fell by around 12%, to 2.4 million tonnes. The situation with gas is structurally worse. The Power of Siberia pipeline has already nearly reached its contractual ceiling - around 38.8 billion cubic meters per year. Power of Siberia 2 is primarily constrained by price: China wants gas at a significantly lower price than Russia is willing to sell it for. LNG faces even more problems: the EU has already begun phasing out imports, while redirecting supplies to Asia means longer and more expensive logistics. China is increasing its purchases of Russian gas, but it has not replaced Europe and will not replace it quickly. The most serious problem is the budget. In the first half of the year, Russia’s oil and gas revenues fell by 22.7% year-on-year, and by 16.8% over the first seven months. By January-April alone, the federal budget deficit had reached 5.88 trillion rubles, exceeding the planned deficit for the entire year. On top of this come the costs of refinery repairs, air defense, fuel imports, alternative routes, freight and insurance. Despite all these losses, we can see that Russian oil and gas revenues have not yet collapsed, although adaptation is becoming increasingly expensive. For now, the Kremlin is being helped by the crisis around the Strait of Hormuz, which is keeping oil prices high. At the same time, Russia’s ability to refine and export this oil is deteriorating. So far, high prices are offsetting these losses. If the situation around Hormuz stabilizes and Brent prices fall, the current logistical and fuel problems could become much more serious for Russia.

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🔥🚨BREAKING: It has been confirmed that this document accusing Catturd and other conservatives of being paid by TPUSA to attack Candace Owens is 100% fake. The creators listed have denied the claims are demanding proof be shown, there are also big creators claiming they were offered payments. As of now 0 of them have provided proof of these claims outside of a tweet with no image, no data, no citations. The truth is, people view Erika Kirk as a grieving widow and Candace Owens is investigating a widow whose husband was loved by everyone that is fed up with Owens. Not all backlash is paid for, this was manipulation to discredit anyone that has a problem and that in itself is evil. We have a massive responsibility with these brands, it sickens me to witness misinformation being sent out to discredit people with valid questions. If she is allowed to question and criticize the wife of a man we all watched get assassinated without being accused of being paid to do so despite her monetizing each episode it would be delusional and disingenuous to claim anyone that questions and criticizes her is compromised. Don’t fall victim to the information war, the same people that think the know what is going on thought they knew what was happening in 2020, when they acted like the election wasn’t stolen, the same people that say you’re owned by Israel spent the last decade getting paid millions by them when it was convenient and acceptable and even helped destroy people who called it out. DON’T BELIEVE THESE EVIL PEOPLE, they are leaves in the wind blowing each direction until they hit the ground. Also why didn’t anyone request for reviews of the meta data from this word document or the original email @? Or even the name of the person who organized it, maybe they also should be asking what was the posting window for this campaign? And last but not least, why does this extremely important campaign not have the amount per post/impression listed? EVERY campaign has this.

Dom Lucre | Breaker of Narratives

720,839 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

Created with seedance 2.0 on Pollo AI A breathtakingly beautiful 20-year-old Indonesian woman with fair warm Indonesian skin, elegant facial features, expressive dark brown eyes, and long dark hair styled in soft vintage waves tied with a cream ribbon. She wears a timeless 1960s-inspired vintage outfit consisting of a cream puff-sleeve blouse tucked into a high-waisted beige pleated midi skirt, a slim brown leather belt, vintage leather loafers, and a small woven handbag. The featured vehicle is a beautifully restored cream-colored Toyota Corolla KE20 with chrome bumpers, round headlights, polished hubcaps, and immaculate classic details. Location: A peaceful Indonesian suburban neighborhood on a bright Sunday morning in 2026. Quiet residential streets, leafy trees, flowering gardens, modest tiled-roof houses, parked scooters, overhead utility cables, and warm morning sunlight. Camera Style: Authentic early-2000s DV camcorder footage recorded casually by a friend. Heavy handheld shake, delayed reframing, autofocus hunting, lens breathing, faded colors, low contrast, digital noise, compression artifacts, exposure pumping, imperfect framing, absolutely no stabilization, no cinematic grading. English subtitles appear naturally at the bottom of the screen whenever the character speaks. Simple white font with a thin black outline, perfectly synchronized, no spelling mistakes. 0:00–0:02 She walks out of her house carrying a bucket, sponge, and microfiber towel. She smiles warmly toward the camera while saying: "Good morning!" English subtitle: "Good morning!" The autofocus briefly struggles before locking onto her face. 0:02–0:04 She sprays thick white foam across the vintage car using a foam sprayer. Sunlight sparkles on the chrome trim. 0:04–0:06 She gently washes the hood using a large yellow sponge with slow circular movements, smiling as she brushes a loose strand of hair behind her ear. 0:06–0:08 She rinses the entire car with clean water. Foam slowly slides down the bodywork while water droplets shimmer beautifully in the morning light. 0:08–0:10 She carefully dries the car using a microfiber towel while saying: "It's almost done!" English subtitle: "It's almost done!" 0:10–0:12 She opens the driver's door, wipes the steering wheel and dashboard, then laughs softly as the camera briefly loses focus. 0:12–0:14 Standing beside the freshly cleaned vintage car, she admires the glossy paint, gently rests one hand on the roof, turns toward the camera and proudly says: "Looks brand new!" English subtitle: "Looks brand new!" 0:14–0:15 She sits behind the wheel with the window open, waves happily toward the camera and says: "See you next time!" English subtitle: "See you next time!" She smiles naturally as the recording abruptly cuts to black mid-motion, exactly like someone switched off the DV camcorder. Audio is strictly natural. Morning birds, gentle breeze, running water, sponge rubbing paint, water dripping onto concrete, distant neighborhood conversations, occasional motorcycles, leaves rustling, footsteps, car door opening and closing. No music. No soundtrack. No cinematic sound effects. Only authentic environmental audio.

Anissa

19,233 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Seednace 2 mini on OpenArt Prompt Seedance 2.0, 15 seconds, 16:9. Main subject from @ image1 — lock her completely. Face, skin tone, body, outfit, everything stays identical the whole way through. She's wearing a grey faded sleeveless crop top, loose high-waist light blue jeans, black canvas sneakers, black cord necklace, black wavy hair in a messy side-swept ponytail with bangs. Korean woman, early-2000s feel. The whole thing is shot in a quiet Korean residential neighborhood — narrow concrete alleys, low-rise houses with small terraces, a front yard with a clothesline, potted plants, parked bicycles and motorcycles, big trees, and overhead cables everywhere. No shops, no vendors, nothing commercial. Just a real neighborhood. Camera treatment is the whole point. This needs to look like someone's friend grabbed a DV camcorder and just started recording — no plan, no setup, no nothing. Heavy handheld shake, constant reframing, subject drifting toward the edges, autofocus hunting, lens breathing, exposure pumping. The image itself should look faded, low contrast, slightly washed out, with that digital noise and compression feel that early-2000s home video had. No stabilization. No modern grading. This aesthetic is non-negotiable. She starts sitting on a concrete sidewalk fixing her ponytail, arms raised, genuine smile, wind catching her hair — camera barely holding focus. Then the camera follows her into a narrow alley where she crouches down and feeds a stray cat that comes right up to her. After that she's in her front yard hanging laundry on the clothesline, morning breeze moving everything, camera swaying and hunting. Mid-section she's on the front terrace with a coffee cup, just sitting quietly, looking out at the street — loose drifting shot from the side. Then a right-side close shot where she raises her arm, waves warmly toward someone off-frame and says "Annyeong" — camera catches it a beat late. Final shot is a slow tracking walk down the street, coffee cup in hand, she notices the lens, turns slightly and gives a real quiet smile — then the recording just cuts to black mid-motion like the camcorder got switched off. Audio is strictly natural. Morning birds, light breeze, distant motorcycle sounds, faint neighborhood chatter, cat, coffee cup, footsteps on concrete, leaves. No music, no sound design, nothing added.

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