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70% gross margin. 10% gross margin. Same sector, same growth rate, completely different business. Most investors still value companies off a revenue multiple. That habit quietly breaks the moment you leave classic SaaS. Michael B. Gilroy , co-founder of Marathon Management Partners, $400 million across software and fintech. "In... fintech, we only use gross profit multiples, because I can be looking at a business that's 70% gross profit or 10%," he told me. "It doesn't mean the 10% gross profit business is any worse, but it does mean they're different. So taking a revenue multiple there makes zero sense." Revenue multiples work when gross margin is roughly constant across a sector, the whole premise behind classic SaaS comps. Fintech blew that assumption up years ago, with margins ranging from negative to 80% depending on the model. Gilroy now applies the same lens to AI software, where the spread is just as wide and most people are still pricing it off top line revenue. The multiple you are using might be pricing the wrong company entirely.show more

David Weisburd 🚀

23,024 subscribers

25,559 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Фото профиля Fred Pope

Fred Pope3 месяцев назад

@MBGilroy 70% or 10% GM doesn’t matter if the cash conversion is trash. Cash flow tells everything. Everything else is noise.

Фото профиля David Weisburd 🚀

David Weisburd 🚀3 месяцев назад

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AI Bull vs Bear #1: 60-70% gross margins on AI inference. Gavin Baker Gavin Baker of Atreides ran the math on BG2 Pod: inference revenue exits 2026 above $200B, and he calls $300B a low estimate for 2027. Ed Zitron's Ed Zitron bear case says costs scale with revenue, so the curve never bends. Baker's number says the unit economics already work at the inference layer. The catch: that is gross margin, not the whole P&L. It does not answer OpenAI's $21B operating loss. Where the bull margin math meets Zitron's receipts:

AI Bull vs Bear #1: 60-70% gross margins on AI inference. Gavin Baker Gavin Baker of Atreides ran the math on BG2 Pod: inference revenue exits 2026 above $200B, and he calls $300B a low estimate for 2027. Ed Zitron's Ed Zitron bear case says costs scale with revenue, so the curve never bends. Baker's number says the unit economics already work at the inference layer. The catch: that is gross margin, not the whole P&L. It does not answer OpenAI's $21B operating loss. Where the bull margin math meets Zitron's receipts:

Podcast Alpha

15,261 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

If you have $46 million to spare, your best investment may be buying a cargo ship. It might sound like the world's most boring business plan until you do the math on making $11 per ton when a 100,000-ton ship hauls 78,000 tons per voyage. Two trips a month gross $1.7 million in revenue while each trip sets you back $450K in fuel, crew and maintenance costs. That leaves you with $800K and a profit margin of 47%. To put that in context, Cartier's operating margin is only 32%. Source: Youtube Shorts

If you have $46 million to spare, your best investment may be buying a cargo ship. It might sound like the world's most boring business plan until you do the math on making $11 per ton when a 100,000-ton ship hauls 78,000 tons per voyage. Two trips a month gross $1.7 million in revenue while each trip sets you back $450K in fuel, crew and maintenance costs. That leaves you with $800K and a profit margin of 47%. To put that in context, Cartier's operating margin is only 32%. Source: Youtube Shorts

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688,016 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

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There’s a special kind of frustration that only founders understand. You’re working harder than ever. The business is bigger than ever. And somehow… you’re not making more money. That’s not a motivation problem. There can be a lot of reasons for this, and in today's podcast, I spoke to Nick Anderson about the origin of his: gross margins. Margin erosion is quiet. It hides inside: • Pricing decisions • Compensation structures • Delivery inefficiencies • Shiny-object initiatives • Vendor creep In Nick's case, he inherited a model that was broken... margins too tight so that scaling the business would make their problems worse, not better. In our episode with Nick, we unpack: Fixing gross margin at OneAccord. The fallout. The hard decisions. And the operating discipline required to build a more profitable second version of the company. If you’re a $1M+ revenue service business and growth feels hard and less profitable than it should… This one’s for you. Subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts: YouTube: Apple Podcasts: Spotify:

Kurtis Hanni

12,285 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

Alex Hormozi says you can turn $1,000 into $30,000 in gross profit in 24 hours "You put a thousand dollars in the S&P and you get 10%, so you're at $1,100 at the end of the year" "In a business you can put $1,000 into paid ads and make $30,000 in gross profit in 24 hours, that's how somebody can go from zero to a billionaire in 4 years"

Alex Hormozi says you can turn $1,000 into $30,000 in gross profit in 24 hours "You put a thousand dollars in the S&P and you get 10%, so you're at $1,100 at the end of the year" "In a business you can put $1,000 into paid ads and make $30,000 in gross profit in 24 hours, that's how somebody can go from zero to a billionaire in 4 years"

Yonan

939,406 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

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Avalanche Foundation 🔺

13,111 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

$SNDK is capping its own margins, and the market is reading it as the top. It is the most bullish thing in the print. (Save this) Gross margin ran from 51% to 84.6% over 3 quarters, and now Q1 guidance sits between 83-85%. On the surface, that looks like the classic warning sign. Every memory cycle ended with strong pricing pulling in CapEx until oversupply crushed margins. My view is that this plateau has a completely different cause. Gavin Baker explains it in the video below. Memory companies are trading short-term upside for long-term agreements, where customers prepay and both a floor and a ceiling are set on prices. Basically, SanDisk gave up the top of the price spike in exchange for guaranteed demand years out. Less/no cyclicality! My view is that a business with contracted revenue, a protected floor and volumes climbing deserves to trade like infrastructure, not like a commodity producer. = higher multiples for memory!

$SNDK is capping its own margins, and the market is reading it as the top. It is the most bullish thing in the print. (Save this) Gross margin ran from 51% to 84.6% over 3 quarters, and now Q1 guidance sits between 83-85%. On the surface, that looks like the classic warning sign. Every memory cycle ended with strong pricing pulling in CapEx until oversupply crushed margins. My view is that this plateau has a completely different cause. Gavin Baker explains it in the video below. Memory companies are trading short-term upside for long-term agreements, where customers prepay and both a floor and a ceiling are set on prices. Basically, SanDisk gave up the top of the price spike in exchange for guaranteed demand years out. Less/no cyclicality! My view is that a business with contracted revenue, a protected floor and volumes climbing deserves to trade like infrastructure, not like a commodity producer. = higher multiples for memory!

Vincent

57,065 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

.Talia Goldberg explains the concept of 'supernovas' in the AI industry. "The supernovas are out-of-nowhere growth stories that are mind-blowing. AI companies are accelerating and compressing growth into a very short period of time." "On average, the top cloud companies took about 6-7 years to get to about $100 million ARR." "In this cohort, the top percentile is getting to $100 million ARR in about one and a half years, and the top decile in about four years. There are some trade-offs like gross margins. Many of these companies have negative gross margins. Not all revenue is created equal, but nevertheless, the adoption is astounding."

.Talia Goldberg explains the concept of 'supernovas' in the AI industry. "The supernovas are out-of-nowhere growth stories that are mind-blowing. AI companies are accelerating and compressing growth into a very short period of time." "On average, the top cloud companies took about 6-7 years to get to about $100 million ARR." "In this cohort, the top percentile is getting to $100 million ARR in about one and a half years, and the top decile in about four years. There are some trade-offs like gross margins. Many of these companies have negative gross margins. Not all revenue is created equal, but nevertheless, the adoption is astounding."

TBPN

409,181 просмотров • 1 год назад

Morgan Stanley just raised their 2027 AI capex forecast to $1.1 trillion and that number still doesn't include SpaceX or a lot of the other AI companies (Save this). When you factor those in, the real 2027 figure is probably closer to $1.5 trillion and AI lab inference revenue combined is tracking toward $300 billion in 2027. On its surface that ratio sounds alarming, spending $1.5 trillion in capex to generate $300 billion in revenue. But the framing collapses the moment you examine two things the bears consistently ignore, gross margins and the revenue trajectory. Gross margins on inference revenue are running at 60 to 70 percent. That means the $300 billion in inference revenue generates $180 to $210 billion in gross profit and that number compounds rapidly as utilization scales on infrastructure that is already built and paid for. The Capex is not being deployed against today's revenue but rather being deployed against a revenue trajectory that has shown no signs of decelerating. To understand how aggressive that trajectory actually is, consider that Morgan Stanley's $1.1 trillion hyperscaler forecast is nearly double what analysts projected for the same year just twelve months ago And they described the demand as inelastic, meaning it is not slowing down regardless of rising costs, tighter financing conditions or geopolitical risk. The AI industry ended 2025 tracking well over $200 billion in combined inference revenue and the growth rate since then has continued to accelerate rather than flatten. Anthropic alone scaled from negligible revenue to a $30 billion annualized run rate in approximately 18 months while OpenAI is tracking toward $280 billion in annual revenue by 2030 from $13 billion in 2025. There is also a structural reality in the capex number that the bears never account for. Roughly 35 percent of total AI spending goes toward training, building the next model generation which is not revenue-generating in the current period. That means only about 65 percent of the $1.5 trillion in capex is actually deployed against the inference infrastructure that earns revenue today. When you apply the 60 to 70 percent gross margin to the revenue that sits on top of that 65 percent figure, the economics look substantially better than the headline capex to revenue ratio implies. Every CEO who has been closest to this buildout has consistently underestimated it and Jensen Huang projected $1 trillion in AI capex two years ago and was called delusional. Dario Amodei said in early 2026 that AI revenues would reach the low hundreds of billions by 2028 and trillions before 2030 and given where Anthropic's own revenue trajectory is today, he is likely revising those numbers upward. The pattern here is consistent, every time someone models the revenue ceiling, the actual number breaks through it faster than expected. Come join Milk Road Pro for our full breakdown, the real unit economics of the AI inference buildout, how the capex to revenue ratio evolves over the next three years, and our entire AI thesis! Link below!

Morgan Stanley just raised their 2027 AI capex forecast to $1.1 trillion and that number still doesn't include SpaceX or a lot of the other AI companies (Save this). When you factor those in, the real 2027 figure is probably closer to $1.5 trillion and AI lab inference revenue combined is tracking toward $300 billion in 2027. On its surface that ratio sounds alarming, spending $1.5 trillion in capex to generate $300 billion in revenue. But the framing collapses the moment you examine two things the bears consistently ignore, gross margins and the revenue trajectory. Gross margins on inference revenue are running at 60 to 70 percent. That means the $300 billion in inference revenue generates $180 to $210 billion in gross profit and that number compounds rapidly as utilization scales on infrastructure that is already built and paid for. The Capex is not being deployed against today's revenue but rather being deployed against a revenue trajectory that has shown no signs of decelerating. To understand how aggressive that trajectory actually is, consider that Morgan Stanley's $1.1 trillion hyperscaler forecast is nearly double what analysts projected for the same year just twelve months ago And they described the demand as inelastic, meaning it is not slowing down regardless of rising costs, tighter financing conditions or geopolitical risk. The AI industry ended 2025 tracking well over $200 billion in combined inference revenue and the growth rate since then has continued to accelerate rather than flatten. Anthropic alone scaled from negligible revenue to a $30 billion annualized run rate in approximately 18 months while OpenAI is tracking toward $280 billion in annual revenue by 2030 from $13 billion in 2025. There is also a structural reality in the capex number that the bears never account for. Roughly 35 percent of total AI spending goes toward training, building the next model generation which is not revenue-generating in the current period. That means only about 65 percent of the $1.5 trillion in capex is actually deployed against the inference infrastructure that earns revenue today. When you apply the 60 to 70 percent gross margin to the revenue that sits on top of that 65 percent figure, the economics look substantially better than the headline capex to revenue ratio implies. Every CEO who has been closest to this buildout has consistently underestimated it and Jensen Huang projected $1 trillion in AI capex two years ago and was called delusional. Dario Amodei said in early 2026 that AI revenues would reach the low hundreds of billions by 2028 and trillions before 2030 and given where Anthropic's own revenue trajectory is today, he is likely revising those numbers upward. The pattern here is consistent, every time someone models the revenue ceiling, the actual number breaks through it faster than expected. Come join Milk Road Pro for our full breakdown, the real unit economics of the AI inference buildout, how the capex to revenue ratio evolves over the next three years, and our entire AI thesis! Link below!

Milk Road AI

21,141 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

CHRIS HOHN HAS GENERATED RETURNS THAT MOST HEDGE FUND MANAGERS WOULD KILL FOR He just explained the one trait Warren Buffett taught him to look for in every investment. It's the difference between a good business and a great one: "Most companies don't have pricing power. They can only price if they're lucky, at inflation. But there is a special group of super companies that can price above inflation. And that's, as Buffett taught, the test of whether you have the moat." Then he ran the math. If a company can price just 1% above inflation with a 20% profit margin, profit grows 5% faster than revenue every year. Compound that over a decade and the gap is enormous. His final point: "People don't go into it or analyze it because there are so few companies that have it."

CHRIS HOHN HAS GENERATED RETURNS THAT MOST HEDGE FUND MANAGERS WOULD KILL FOR He just explained the one trait Warren Buffett taught him to look for in every investment. It's the difference between a good business and a great one: "Most companies don't have pricing power. They can only price if they're lucky, at inflation. But there is a special group of super companies that can price above inflation. And that's, as Buffett taught, the test of whether you have the moat." Then he ran the math. If a company can price just 1% above inflation with a 20% profit margin, profit grows 5% faster than revenue every year. Compound that over a decade and the gap is enormous. His final point: "People don't go into it or analyze it because there are so few companies that have it."

WOLF

22,497 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

The refining margin just told on the oil market. The standard model says a refiner turns three barrels of crude into two of gasoline and one of diesel. Run today's numbers and the implied gross margin blows past a hundred and eighty dollars across that barrel set. That is not efficiency. That is a warning. Crude collapsed fast. Finished fuel did not follow at the same speed. The two markets are recovering from the same shock at completely different paces, and the spread between them is the proof. Watch the spread, not the headline price of oil. The spread is telling you where the actual imbalance is sitting.

The refining margin just told on the oil market. The standard model says a refiner turns three barrels of crude into two of gasoline and one of diesel. Run today's numbers and the implied gross margin blows past a hundred and eighty dollars across that barrel set. That is not efficiency. That is a warning. Crude collapsed fast. Finished fuel did not follow at the same speed. The two markets are recovering from the same shock at completely different paces, and the spread between them is the proof. Watch the spread, not the headline price of oil. The spread is telling you where the actual imbalance is sitting.

Jeffrey P. Snider

22,579 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Every VC in the market is now reading the same customer call transcripts. That is not an edge. That is a commodity. The moment diligence becomes something you read instead of something you do in person, it stops being diligence. Michael B. Gilroy , co-founder of Marathon Management Partners, which runs $400 million across software and fintech. "If all my competitors are reading the same transcript, who cares? What am I going to learn from that that's differentiated from the market?" he told me. "You will know if I'm lying, if my eyes are darting around the room, the classic touching your nose." AI gave every investor the same call notes. It did not give anyone an edge, because an edge that everyone has is not an edge. The firms still doing customer back channels, still getting on Zoom, still watching a founder's eyes when they answer a hard question, are the ones who will actually know something the market does not. The humans who stayed in the room are about to get paid for it.

Every VC in the market is now reading the same customer call transcripts. That is not an edge. That is a commodity. The moment diligence becomes something you read instead of something you do in person, it stops being diligence. Michael B. Gilroy , co-founder of Marathon Management Partners, which runs $400 million across software and fintech. "If all my competitors are reading the same transcript, who cares? What am I going to learn from that that's differentiated from the market?" he told me. "You will know if I'm lying, if my eyes are darting around the room, the classic touching your nose." AI gave every investor the same call notes. It did not give anyone an edge, because an edge that everyone has is not an edge. The firms still doing customer back channels, still getting on Zoom, still watching a founder's eyes when they answer a hard question, are the ones who will actually know something the market does not. The humans who stayed in the room are about to get paid for it.

David Weisburd 🚀

10,599 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Perplexity CEO Aravind Srinivas: "One thing that Perplexity has is, every revenue we make, unlike certain other [wrapper] companies, every revenue Perplexity makes has positive gross margins." "Because we route through multiple different models, we're very efficient in terms of how we spend on the tokens... we have all this advantage with RAG and orchestration and search. We don't actually need to blow up the [context]." "Every single penny we make, we make profits on that. But the overall company is still yet to be profitable."

Perplexity CEO Aravind Srinivas: "One thing that Perplexity has is, every revenue we make, unlike certain other [wrapper] companies, every revenue Perplexity makes has positive gross margins." "Because we route through multiple different models, we're very efficient in terms of how we spend on the tokens... we have all this advantage with RAG and orchestration and search. We don't actually need to blow up the [context]." "Every single penny we make, we make profits on that. But the overall company is still yet to be profitable."

Wall St Engine

365,015 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

"Margins still matter. Many fast-growing AI businesses have lower gross margins because of compute and inference costs, but the winners will be those with a credible path to improving profitability over time. In today's AI market, hypergrowth can justify lower margins, but only if there's a believable route to 60–70% gross margins." mmurph How should investor today be assessing and thinking about gross margin for AI first businesses @ceoclickhouse Nikesh Arora Lin Qiao Matan Grinberg

"Margins still matter. Many fast-growing AI businesses have lower gross margins because of compute and inference costs, but the winners will be those with a credible path to improving profitability over time. In today's AI market, hypergrowth can justify lower margins, but only if there's a believable route to 60–70% gross margins." mmurph How should investor today be assessing and thinking about gross margin for AI first businesses @ceoclickhouse Nikesh Arora Lin Qiao Matan Grinberg

Harry Stebbings

18,942 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

$SONY CEO just laid out why the stock will rip to new all time highs. Most investors think that a memory shortage is a negative for $SONY. But really $SONY got crazy lucky that there is already 90M+ PS5s in the world ready to aggressively monetize GTA 6 for a decade or two. 70% of their gaming revenue is non hardware revenue. This is a high margin software company that will get its platform multiple soon, much higher than 17x fwd. "It is lucky, you know, we are in the latter half of the lifetime cycle of a PS console. That means that we do not need to aggressively sell the console today. W're focusing on recurring revenue from the current, you know, the user base".

$SONY CEO just laid out why the stock will rip to new all time highs. Most investors think that a memory shortage is a negative for $SONY. But really $SONY got crazy lucky that there is already 90M+ PS5s in the world ready to aggressively monetize GTA 6 for a decade or two. 70% of their gaming revenue is non hardware revenue. This is a high margin software company that will get its platform multiple soon, much higher than 17x fwd. "It is lucky, you know, we are in the latter half of the lifetime cycle of a PS console. That means that we do not need to aggressively sell the console today. W're focusing on recurring revenue from the current, you know, the user base".

Michael Sikand

40,636 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Nitin’s video was refreshingly specific — ₹900 cr operational profit, 13% margin, clear on depreciation. The chart validates it: EBITDA margin ~17%, payback ~10 months, gross profit per sqft ~₹20k. Numbers first, narratives later — that’s how it should be.

Nitin’s video was refreshingly specific — ₹900 cr operational profit, 13% margin, clear on depreciation. The chart validates it: EBITDA margin ~17%, payback ~10 months, gross profit per sqft ~₹20k. Numbers first, narratives later — that’s how it should be.

CA Chirag Chauhan

119,494 просмотров • 1 год назад

The AI market rally in 2026 has one anchor. It's private. Brad Gerstner Gerstner holds Anthropic equity with non-public financial access. His claim: without Anthropic's 2026 revenue delivery, the market would be down 10-15% right now. Not NVIDIA. Not OpenAI launches. Anthropic's profit path. High gross margins and a path to positive FCF in Q2 2026 triggered the market's ascent out of a deep correction. One private company validated that AI revenue was real and profitable. The anchor is private. The companies depending on it are public. If Anthropic's next revenue update disappoints, every AI-correlated position loses its primary justification. Source: TBPN (TBPN) -

The AI market rally in 2026 has one anchor. It's private. Brad Gerstner Gerstner holds Anthropic equity with non-public financial access. His claim: without Anthropic's 2026 revenue delivery, the market would be down 10-15% right now. Not NVIDIA. Not OpenAI launches. Anthropic's profit path. High gross margins and a path to positive FCF in Q2 2026 triggered the market's ascent out of a deep correction. One private company validated that AI revenue was real and profitable. The anchor is private. The companies depending on it are public. If Anthropic's next revenue update disappoints, every AI-correlated position loses its primary justification. Source: TBPN (TBPN) -

Podcast Alpha

28,399 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

I built this CEO dashboard for my client. And it changed how they run their entire business. 1/ Before this dashboard, they were making decisions in the dark. Revenue, profit, and marketing spend scattered across spreadsheets and platforms. - No single source of truth. - No real-time profit and loss visibility. - No way to see which channels were actually driving growth. 2/ Here’s what this dashboard delivers: Executive Overview: → $102K total revenue tracked live → $79.8K gross profit and 78% gross margin calculated automatically → 15% contribution margin, updated in real time → $5,880 revenue this week, always visible Profit & Loss Clarity: → Visual breakdown of revenue, COGS, transaction costs, and marketing spend → Instantly see contribution margin and where profit is made (or lost) Revenue & COGS by Type: → Instantly compare new vs. returning revenue and costs → Know exactly what’s driving growth and what’s eating margin Marketing Spend by Channel: → Compare Meta vs. Google spend → See which channel is delivering the best ROI Revenue vs. Marketing Spend Trends: → Visualize how every marketing dollar translates to revenue over time Conversion & Order Insights: → Track sessions, orders, conversion rates, AOV, MER, CPA, and more live Dark mode or light mode? → This dashboard looks stunning with these two options. No more squinting at numbers. Details are always crystal clear. 3/ The transformation was instant: Before: → Hours spent pulling numbers from different platforms → Guessing at profit and loss → No clarity on which channel was working After: → 10 minutes daily reviewing live insights → Real-time, data-driven decisions → Confident budget allocation and growth planning 4/ The business impact: → Faster decisions → Smarter optimizations → A client who finally feels in control of their numbers This isn’t just a dashboard. This is executive intelligence. Every metric tells a story. Every trend reveals an opportunity. Every insight drives profit. Want a dashboard that makes your business look (and run) like a million bucks? I build custom dashboards & AI automation systems that give you real-time clarity and control. - Real-time data - Predictive insights - Automated reporting - Intelligent alerts Ready to stop guessing? Like + Comment "CEO DASHBOARD" and I’ll DM you a free resource to help you track the top 5 metrics every CEO should monitor.

I built this CEO dashboard for my client. And it changed how they run their entire business. 1/ Before this dashboard, they were making decisions in the dark. Revenue, profit, and marketing spend scattered across spreadsheets and platforms. - No single source of truth. - No real-time profit and loss visibility. - No way to see which channels were actually driving growth. 2/ Here’s what this dashboard delivers: Executive Overview: → $102K total revenue tracked live → $79.8K gross profit and 78% gross margin calculated automatically → 15% contribution margin, updated in real time → $5,880 revenue this week, always visible Profit & Loss Clarity: → Visual breakdown of revenue, COGS, transaction costs, and marketing spend → Instantly see contribution margin and where profit is made (or lost) Revenue & COGS by Type: → Instantly compare new vs. returning revenue and costs → Know exactly what’s driving growth and what’s eating margin Marketing Spend by Channel: → Compare Meta vs. Google spend → See which channel is delivering the best ROI Revenue vs. Marketing Spend Trends: → Visualize how every marketing dollar translates to revenue over time Conversion & Order Insights: → Track sessions, orders, conversion rates, AOV, MER, CPA, and more live Dark mode or light mode? → This dashboard looks stunning with these two options. No more squinting at numbers. Details are always crystal clear. 3/ The transformation was instant: Before: → Hours spent pulling numbers from different platforms → Guessing at profit and loss → No clarity on which channel was working After: → 10 minutes daily reviewing live insights → Real-time, data-driven decisions → Confident budget allocation and growth planning 4/ The business impact: → Faster decisions → Smarter optimizations → A client who finally feels in control of their numbers This isn’t just a dashboard. This is executive intelligence. Every metric tells a story. Every trend reveals an opportunity. Every insight drives profit. Want a dashboard that makes your business look (and run) like a million bucks? I build custom dashboards & AI automation systems that give you real-time clarity and control. - Real-time data - Predictive insights - Automated reporting - Intelligent alerts Ready to stop guessing? Like + Comment "CEO DASHBOARD" and I’ll DM you a free resource to help you track the top 5 metrics every CEO should monitor.

Lian Lim | Dashboard & AI Automation Expert

116,069 просмотров • 1 год назад

Cathie Wood says ARK underwrites every name to a market multiple of 18-19x EBITDA in year five, and is stricter on valuation than most with a longer horizon "And our working assumption is that premium multiple is going to decay. It's going to compress during the next five years toward a market multiple." "And in fact, most of our analysis, the market's multiple has gone up. Most of our analysis is at 18, 19x EBITDA in the fifth year, even if we don't believe it's going to get there. We want to be conservative." "So our analysts and portfolio managers have to believe that the revenue growth and margin expansion these companies are going to enjoy over the next five years is going to overwhelm that compression in multiples." "So many people think, you know, we'll buy any technology company, no matter what. We probably are stricter in terms of valuation, but have a longer-term time horizon than most."

Cathie Wood says ARK underwrites every name to a market multiple of 18-19x EBITDA in year five, and is stricter on valuation than most with a longer horizon "And our working assumption is that premium multiple is going to decay. It's going to compress during the next five years toward a market multiple." "And in fact, most of our analysis, the market's multiple has gone up. Most of our analysis is at 18, 19x EBITDA in the fifth year, even if we don't believe it's going to get there. We want to be conservative." "So our analysts and portfolio managers have to believe that the revenue growth and margin expansion these companies are going to enjoy over the next five years is going to overwhelm that compression in multiples." "So many people think, you know, we'll buy any technology company, no matter what. We probably are stricter in terms of valuation, but have a longer-term time horizon than most."

Fireside Alpha

22,498 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Cathie Wood in new interview on $TSLA and SpaceX IPO: "The market is shifting its focus to the robotaxi opportunity. We're moving from 15% gross margins in autos, to more of a SaaS model where robotaxis recurring revenue model, those margins are in the 70s and 80s; On the Optimus robot side, it will be 200,000 times more difficult to get working correctly relative to a robotaxi. Nonetheless, they're starting to make waves." On SpaceX: "We wouldn't be surprised to see it become the first trillion dollar company (IPO), especially now that there's a new opportunity: datacenters in space. We're starting to do the modeling work on that now."

Cathie Wood in new interview on $TSLA and SpaceX IPO: "The market is shifting its focus to the robotaxi opportunity. We're moving from 15% gross margins in autos, to more of a SaaS model where robotaxis recurring revenue model, those margins are in the 70s and 80s; On the Optimus robot side, it will be 200,000 times more difficult to get working correctly relative to a robotaxi. Nonetheless, they're starting to make waves." On SpaceX: "We wouldn't be surprised to see it become the first trillion dollar company (IPO), especially now that there's a new opportunity: datacenters in space. We're starting to do the modeling work on that now."

Sawyer Merritt

275,387 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад