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80% probabilities. +2R 🔥 ORB15 strikes again. Most traders enter 9:30 NY open completely blind. Intelligent Balance Probability Map [Herman] already showed where the odds were leaning during the 9:30–9:45 ORB15 window. Not predictions. Statistical imbalance. Wait for confirmation - 1min iFVG Execute in the more probable direction. Let... show more

Herman Trading

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20,852 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat •via X (Twitter)

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84% BEARISH BIAS - New York ORB15 $NQ Not after the move. BEFORE IT Today’s ORB15 (9:30–9:45 NY time) on NQ showed a massive bearish imbalance: 84% probability to the downside. So the plan was simple: wait for confirmation → iFVG entry → execute. Result? 2R This is why probabilities change everything. Most traders enter New York Session guessing direction. I enter already knowing where the odds are leaning. Trade with probabilities. Not predictions. #NQ #ICT

84% BEARISH BIAS - New York ORB15 $NQ Not after the move. BEFORE IT Today’s ORB15 (9:30–9:45 NY time) on NQ showed a massive bearish imbalance: 84% probability to the downside. So the plan was simple: wait for confirmation → iFVG entry → execute. Result? 2R This is why probabilities change everything. Most traders enter New York Session guessing direction. I enter already knowing where the odds are leaning. Trade with probabilities. Not predictions. #NQ #ICT

Herman Trading

18,138 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

I posted the target BEFORE price got there. 75.8%+ probability. At 8:10am NY time I posted the exact New York bias from my indicators: LOWER prices towards London low. 20 minutes later? Price traded directly into it. This is why trading with probabilities changes everything. When you already know where the odds are leaning BEFORE execution… decision-making becomes completely different. Trade with probabilities. Not predictions. Would you trade differently if you already knew where the odds were leaning before New York open? #NQ #ICT #Trading

I posted the target BEFORE price got there. 75.8%+ probability. At 8:10am NY time I posted the exact New York bias from my indicators: LOWER prices towards London low. 20 minutes later? Price traded directly into it. This is why trading with probabilities changes everything. When you already know where the odds are leaning BEFORE execution… decision-making becomes completely different. Trade with probabilities. Not predictions. Would you trade differently if you already knew where the odds were leaning before New York open? #NQ #ICT #Trading

Herman Trading

12,530 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

90% of traders would FAIL this trade before it even started. Why? Because they entered without knowing where the odds were leaning. Meanwhile I had: • 70%+ probabilities • statistical bias • liquidity target already mapped So while retail was guessing… I was waiting for confirmation INTO the more probable side. That’s the difference between random trading… and engineered trading. The scary part? Once you start trading with probabilities… you realize how blind normal trading actually is. Trade with probabilities. Not predictions. Would you take a trade if you knew there was a 75%+ chance price hits one side first? #NQ #ICT

90% of traders would FAIL this trade before it even started. Why? Because they entered without knowing where the odds were leaning. Meanwhile I had: • 70%+ probabilities • statistical bias • liquidity target already mapped So while retail was guessing… I was waiting for confirmation INTO the more probable side. That’s the difference between random trading… and engineered trading. The scary part? Once you start trading with probabilities… you realize how blind normal trading actually is. Trade with probabilities. Not predictions. Would you take a trade if you knew there was a 75%+ chance price hits one side first? #NQ #ICT

Herman Trading

11,796 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Every week I backtest the previous week’s ORB15 9:30–9:45. Not to predict with emotion. Not to cherry-pick winners. But to prove one rule: Trade ONLY toward the more probable side. Last week: Monday: delivered, but no valid trade Tuesday: delivered +2R Wednesday: delivered +2R Thursday: delivered +2R Friday: delivered +2R The entries were not complicated. iFVG. CISD. Basic ICT confirmation. The edge was not in the entry. The edge was knowing which direction NOT to trade. Direction first. Confirmation second. Execution third. How many more weekly backtests before traders stop calling probability “luck”?

Every week I backtest the previous week’s ORB15 9:30–9:45. Not to predict with emotion. Not to cherry-pick winners. But to prove one rule: Trade ONLY toward the more probable side. Last week: Monday: delivered, but no valid trade Tuesday: delivered +2R Wednesday: delivered +2R Thursday: delivered +2R Friday: delivered +2R The entries were not complicated. iFVG. CISD. Basic ICT confirmation. The edge was not in the entry. The edge was knowing which direction NOT to trade. Direction first. Confirmation second. Execution third. How many more weekly backtests before traders stop calling probability “luck”?

Herman Trading

41,232 Aufrufe • vor 8 Tagen

Most traders still think the edge is the entry. It’s not. Today both probability models aligned with the same objective BEFORE price even got there. London Probability Map: 73.5% probability to sweep the LOW first. Price delivered exactly there. New York Probability Map: 72.8% probability to sweep the LOW first. Another textbook A+ setup. Another delivery. Trade entry in both cases? Basic ICT iFVG execution in the direction of the more probable side. That’s the part most traders miss. The iFVG is not the edge. The probabilities are. When you already know where price is statistically more likely to go first… execution becomes calmer, cleaner and far less emotional. Would your trading change if you started every session already knowing where the odds were leaning first? #NQ #ICT

Most traders still think the edge is the entry. It’s not. Today both probability models aligned with the same objective BEFORE price even got there. London Probability Map: 73.5% probability to sweep the LOW first. Price delivered exactly there. New York Probability Map: 72.8% probability to sweep the LOW first. Another textbook A+ setup. Another delivery. Trade entry in both cases? Basic ICT iFVG execution in the direction of the more probable side. That’s the part most traders miss. The iFVG is not the edge. The probabilities are. When you already know where price is statistically more likely to go first… execution becomes calmer, cleaner and far less emotional. Would your trading change if you started every session already knowing where the odds were leaning first? #NQ #ICT

Herman Trading

14,145 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

This is what a textbook A+ setup on NQ looks like. The direction was already defined before the trade appeared. Today, the London Probability Map showed a 73.5% probability for the more probable LOW. So I was not interested in longs - SHORTS ONLY. I only needed one clean SHORT confirmation: • Sweep of liquidity • Bearish iFVG • Entry aligned with the statistically more probable direction That is it. Historical data and probabilities define the direction. Price action gives the entry. Trade entry + directional edge = A+ setup. The attached video shows the full London session execution step by step. How much simpler would your trading become if you stopped guessing the direction first?

This is what a textbook A+ setup on NQ looks like. The direction was already defined before the trade appeared. Today, the London Probability Map showed a 73.5% probability for the more probable LOW. So I was not interested in longs - SHORTS ONLY. I only needed one clean SHORT confirmation: • Sweep of liquidity • Bearish iFVG • Entry aligned with the statistically more probable direction That is it. Historical data and probabilities define the direction. Price action gives the entry. Trade entry + directional edge = A+ setup. The attached video shows the full London session execution step by step. How much simpler would your trading become if you stopped guessing the direction first?

Herman Trading

17,352 Aufrufe • vor 25 Tagen

Today’s NQ ORB15 range (9:30–9:45) showed an 82% probability for LONGS. Price pushed directly into the level highlighted by the Intelligent Balance Probability Map… …and immediately reversed. No continuation. No extended move. But the level was respected almost perfectly. That matters. The job of the indicator is not to predict every tick after the target is reached. Its job is to identify the statistically more probable side and highlight the level the market is most likely to seek. Today, it did exactly that. Price reached the mapped level, reacted instantly, and showed that the market clearly “saw” it. Direction first. Target second. Execution only when the setup is there.

Today’s NQ ORB15 range (9:30–9:45) showed an 82% probability for LONGS. Price pushed directly into the level highlighted by the Intelligent Balance Probability Map… …and immediately reversed. No continuation. No extended move. But the level was respected almost perfectly. That matters. The job of the indicator is not to predict every tick after the target is reached. Its job is to identify the statistically more probable side and highlight the level the market is most likely to seek. Today, it did exactly that. Price reached the mapped level, reacted instantly, and showed that the market clearly “saw” it. Direction first. Target second. Execution only when the setup is there.

Herman Trading

18,517 Aufrufe • vor 18 Tagen

LONG or SHORT? Because right now… the odds are screaming one direction. 8:00am New York Session. Both indicators agree: • New York Probability Map • Intelligent Balance 75.8%+ probability of sweeping London’s Low first. So while most traders are about to randomly click buy or sell… I already know which side has the statistical advantage. That doesn’t guarantee the trade. But it changes the entire way you approach execution. Trading becomes calmer. Cleaner. More intentional. Because when probabilities align BEFORE New York opens… you stop guessing. You start trading with odds on your side. So be honest: Are you longing into 75.8% downside probability… or trading with the statistics?

LONG or SHORT? Because right now… the odds are screaming one direction. 8:00am New York Session. Both indicators agree: • New York Probability Map • Intelligent Balance 75.8%+ probability of sweeping London’s Low first. So while most traders are about to randomly click buy or sell… I already know which side has the statistical advantage. That doesn’t guarantee the trade. But it changes the entire way you approach execution. Trading becomes calmer. Cleaner. More intentional. Because when probabilities align BEFORE New York opens… you stop guessing. You start trading with odds on your side. So be honest: Are you longing into 75.8% downside probability… or trading with the statistics?

Herman Trading

17,870 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Yesterday, I MECHANICALLY backtested a simple London Session model: → iFVG trade entry → Only towards the more probable side → Fixed 2R target Today, we test the exact same concept on the NY Initial Balance 9:30–10:30 ET. Entire week. Monday to Friday. No cherry-picking. The rules stay simple: → Intelligent Balance identifies the more probable side → I ignore every setup in the opposite direction → I wait for an iFVG towards probability → Mechanical entry → Fixed 2R target No complicated execution model. No predicting every candle. No forcing trades. Just one simple question: Can a basic iFVG entry perform better when every trade is aligned with the statistically more probable side? Full Initial Balance weekly backtest in the video. Would you trade this model mechanically?

Yesterday, I MECHANICALLY backtested a simple London Session model: → iFVG trade entry → Only towards the more probable side → Fixed 2R target Today, we test the exact same concept on the NY Initial Balance 9:30–10:30 ET. Entire week. Monday to Friday. No cherry-picking. The rules stay simple: → Intelligent Balance identifies the more probable side → I ignore every setup in the opposite direction → I wait for an iFVG towards probability → Mechanical entry → Fixed 2R target No complicated execution model. No predicting every candle. No forcing trades. Just one simple question: Can a basic iFVG entry perform better when every trade is aligned with the statistically more probable side? Full Initial Balance weekly backtest in the video. Would you trade this model mechanically?

Herman Trading

29,822 Aufrufe • vor 16 Tagen

Most traders make trading too complicated. My mechanical approach is simple: -Wait for Intelligent Balance. -Identify the more probable side. -Trade ONLY in that direction. -Use iFVG as execution. Target fixed R. No setup toward the bias = no trade. Today’s New York session was a perfect example. Intelligent Balance showed 70% for SHORTS. That means I was NOT interested in longs. I did not need to predict every candle. I did not need to catch the top. I did not need to trade both directions. My job was simple: Wait for price to show bearish confirmation toward the more probable side. Once the iFVG appeared in the short direction, that became the mechanical entry. Bias came from Intelligent Balance. Execution came from iFVG. Risk handled the rest. This is why direction matters more than entry. A basic ICT concept becomes much easier when you already know which side you are allowed to trade. Would your trading improve if you stopped asking “long or short?” every 5 minutes and only traded toward the higher probability side?

Most traders make trading too complicated. My mechanical approach is simple: -Wait for Intelligent Balance. -Identify the more probable side. -Trade ONLY in that direction. -Use iFVG as execution. Target fixed R. No setup toward the bias = no trade. Today’s New York session was a perfect example. Intelligent Balance showed 70% for SHORTS. That means I was NOT interested in longs. I did not need to predict every candle. I did not need to catch the top. I did not need to trade both directions. My job was simple: Wait for price to show bearish confirmation toward the more probable side. Once the iFVG appeared in the short direction, that became the mechanical entry. Bias came from Intelligent Balance. Execution came from iFVG. Risk handled the rest. This is why direction matters more than entry. A basic ICT concept becomes much easier when you already know which side you are allowed to trade. Would your trading improve if you stopped asking “long or short?” every 5 minutes and only traded toward the higher probability side?

Herman Trading

34,472 Aufrufe • vor 12 Tagen

Most traders guess and hope Most traders lose. What if you KNEW the odds before you entered: 76% it plays out Vs 24% reversal? Millions of data points, real-time probabilities, live on your chart. That’s Spitfire Merlin. The edge that completely changes everything. Join now

Most traders guess and hope Most traders lose. What if you KNEW the odds before you entered: 76% it plays out Vs 24% reversal? Millions of data points, real-time probabilities, live on your chart. That’s Spitfire Merlin. The edge that completely changes everything. Join now

Spitfire Traders

12,235 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

LIVE TRADE: NQ showed a 77% probability to sweep London’s High first today. Did we reach it? I don’t know. I already secured profits. Because most traders misunderstand what “more probable” actually means. A 77% probability does NOT mean: “Hold TP blindly until London High.” It means: my entire bias and trade direction is ONLY aligned with the statistically stronger side. That changes everything. I am not randomly longing and shorting inside noise. I am trading WITH the side that historically has the advantage. The target is optional. The directional edge is the real weapon. Would your trading improve if you stopped fighting the statistically stronger side? #NQ #ICT

LIVE TRADE: NQ showed a 77% probability to sweep London’s High first today. Did we reach it? I don’t know. I already secured profits. Because most traders misunderstand what “more probable” actually means. A 77% probability does NOT mean: “Hold TP blindly until London High.” It means: my entire bias and trade direction is ONLY aligned with the statistically stronger side. That changes everything. I am not randomly longing and shorting inside noise. I am trading WITH the side that historically has the advantage. The target is optional. The directional edge is the real weapon. Would your trading improve if you stopped fighting the statistically stronger side? #NQ #ICT

Herman Trading

14,779 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

London Session today, both of my probability tools aligned: • Probability Map: 76.5% LONGS • Intelligent Balance: 72% LONGS That immediately simplified the entire session. I was not interested in predicting every candle. I was not looking for shorts. I was looking for one thing only: BULLISH signatures toward the statistically more probable side. Any bullish iFVG? Any FVG supporting continuation? Any willingness from price to expand higher? The moment price started confirming the bias, I was joining in. This is how I approach day trading: Probability gives me the direction. Price action gives me the entry. Entries do not need to be complicated when you already know which side of the market deserves your attention. Would your trading improve if you stopped trying to trade both directions?

London Session today, both of my probability tools aligned: • Probability Map: 76.5% LONGS • Intelligent Balance: 72% LONGS That immediately simplified the entire session. I was not interested in predicting every candle. I was not looking for shorts. I was looking for one thing only: BULLISH signatures toward the statistically more probable side. Any bullish iFVG? Any FVG supporting continuation? Any willingness from price to expand higher? The moment price started confirming the bias, I was joining in. This is how I approach day trading: Probability gives me the direction. Price action gives me the entry. Entries do not need to be complicated when you already know which side of the market deserves your attention. Would your trading improve if you stopped trying to trade both directions?

Herman Trading

14,624 Aufrufe • vor 20 Tagen

A+ NQ setup has exactly three parts. 1. Statistical bias: Probability Map shows 75%+ to one side. Not an opinion. Backtested across 10 years of NQ session data. That number narrows the playing field before price moves an inch. 2. The sweep: Liquidity is resting in the opposite direction. When price grabs it, that is not a fake-out. That is the fuel for the real move. You were expecting it. You were watching for it. 3. The entry model: After the sweep, the structure confirms. iFVG / CISD. A defined ICT concept with clear invalidation. Not a hope, not a gut feel. A model with a precise entry and a reason to be there. Probability tells you where. The sweep tells you when. The entry model tells you how. Remove any one of the three and you do not have an edge. You have a trade. How many of these boxes do you tick before you pull the trigger?

A+ NQ setup has exactly three parts. 1. Statistical bias: Probability Map shows 75%+ to one side. Not an opinion. Backtested across 10 years of NQ session data. That number narrows the playing field before price moves an inch. 2. The sweep: Liquidity is resting in the opposite direction. When price grabs it, that is not a fake-out. That is the fuel for the real move. You were expecting it. You were watching for it. 3. The entry model: After the sweep, the structure confirms. iFVG / CISD. A defined ICT concept with clear invalidation. Not a hope, not a gut feel. A model with a precise entry and a reason to be there. Probability tells you where. The sweep tells you when. The entry model tells you how. Remove any one of the three and you do not have an edge. You have a trade. How many of these boxes do you tick before you pull the trigger?

Herman Trading

20,079 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

ICT explains how to pair up the midnight open, 8:30 and 9:30 open price

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My trading rule is simple: ALWAYS trade toward the more probable side. Not sometimes. Not when I feel like it. Not only when the setup looks perfect. Always. That is why I use Intelligent Balance. The indicator tells me which side is more probable. If it shows LONGS, I only look for longs. If it shows SHORTS, I only look for shorts. A clean setup against the more probable side? Ignored. A perfect iFVG against the more probable side? Ignored. CISD against the more probable side? Ignored. Because my job is not to trade every setup. My job is to wait for price to give me an entry toward the side with higher probability. The indicator gives me the side. Price action gives me the entry. Discipline keeps me out of the wrong trades. ALWAYS toward the more probable side. That one rule removes most of the noise. Would you still take a “perfect” setup against the more probable side?

My trading rule is simple: ALWAYS trade toward the more probable side. Not sometimes. Not when I feel like it. Not only when the setup looks perfect. Always. That is why I use Intelligent Balance. The indicator tells me which side is more probable. If it shows LONGS, I only look for longs. If it shows SHORTS, I only look for shorts. A clean setup against the more probable side? Ignored. A perfect iFVG against the more probable side? Ignored. CISD against the more probable side? Ignored. Because my job is not to trade every setup. My job is to wait for price to give me an entry toward the side with higher probability. The indicator gives me the side. Price action gives me the entry. Discipline keeps me out of the wrong trades. ALWAYS toward the more probable side. That one rule removes most of the noise. Would you still take a “perfect” setup against the more probable side?

Herman Trading

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80% of Most traders are asleep when the real setup forms. The 5AM window is where CRT quietly builds the day’s opportunity. In this 10-minute lecture, you’ll see: 5AM CRT Model: High Probability CRT Model (with ICT concepts) You’ll learn: • Why the 5AM candle is critical to the day’s range • How CRT defines the true high/low from this window • Where ICT concepts align with the setup • The confirmation that signals expansion • The mistake traders make before New York opens This isn’t a random time. It’s a repeatable window where structure is formed. If you trade CRT and ICT this model will change how you frame the morning. 🎥 10-minute in-depth breakdown attached. More CRT MODEL to be posted so be patient and wait for the remaining and chose the best that suits you.

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