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90+2'๐†๐Ž๐€๐‹! | Uganda pulls one back โ€” comeback hopes alive! Tunisia ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ณ3โ€“1 ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฌUganda #UBCAFCON25 #TotalEnergiesAFCON2025 #TECNOAI #TECNOAFCON2025

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Now that weโ€™ve all had a few days to process the hype surrounding the proposed 650,000 bbl/d refinery in East Africa ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ช ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฌ ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฟ, letโ€™s take a long, hard look in the mirror. [1] Funding Gap: Where will Kenya ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ช, Uganda ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฌ, and Tanzania ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ฟ raise the ~ $20 billion needed to build this facility when they already spend more on debt servicing than on healthcare or education? Just as critical - can they raise that capital, cheaply? [2] Diplomacy Deficit: Relations between these three countries are prickly on most days. Can nations that block agricultural imports, incinerate day-old chicks and limit the reach of each otherโ€™s airlines really cooperate on a project of this magnitude? [3] Successor Risk: With potential changes in government in Kenya ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ช (2027) and Uganda ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฌ (2031), will the successors of William Ruto and Yoweri Museveni prioritize regional interests over national ones? โ€œWhen Aliko Dangote built his refinery in Nigeria, he was essentially dealing with one country,โ€ says Wangari Kebuchi, Founder & MD at Expertise Global . Given the clashing interests involved here, she warns that โ€œdiscussions are going to be much more intense than what was faced in Nigeria.โ€ What trade-offs are East African policymakers willing to accept? Do they have the policy discipline to execute this without wasting billions in taxpayer dollars, as they have in other, smaller infrastructure projects?

Ramah Nyang

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