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“A bitcoin treasury company has access to leverage, perpetual preferred equity that has no margins, not callable, that is not as accessible to you as a fund, and so that carry trade itself can outperform bitcoin itself over the long run,” Strive CEO Matt Cole says.

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“We’re the only Bitcoin treasury company with 100% of our amplification through perpetual preferred equity.” In his conversation with Remy Blaire, Matt Cole breaks down why Strive structure eliminates margin-call risk, avoids forced liquidation, and allows the company to ride out any volatility as it builds long-term value through Bitcoin exposure.

“We’re the only Bitcoin treasury company with 100% of our amplification through perpetual preferred equity.” In his conversation with Remy Blaire, Matt Cole breaks down why Strive structure eliminates margin-call risk, avoids forced liquidation, and allows the company to ride out any volatility as it builds long-term value through Bitcoin exposure.

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"One of our strongest held beliefs is that they're never going to stop printing money, that the debt crisis will not be fixed." Matt Cole Strive CEO Notes: • Strive manages $2B AUM across 13 ETFs • Matt's net worth in Bitcoin since 2016-2017 • 50% drawdowns expected as normal volatility • Preferred equity structure allows riding to $1 🎧 Check out the latest episode of Blockspace Podcast: Why Most Bitcoin Treasury Companies Are Struggling — and the One That's Getting It Right’ in partnership with Blockspace!

"One of our strongest held beliefs is that they're never going to stop printing money, that the debt crisis will not be fixed." Matt Cole Strive CEO Notes: • Strive manages $2B AUM across 13 ETFs • Matt's net worth in Bitcoin since 2016-2017 • 50% drawdowns expected as normal volatility • Preferred equity structure allows riding to $1 🎧 Check out the latest episode of Blockspace Podcast: Why Most Bitcoin Treasury Companies Are Struggling — and the One That's Getting It Right’ in partnership with Blockspace!

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WHY I AM BUYING STRIVE (ASST) In this video, I walk through my full investment thesis on Strive (ASST), a Bitcoin treasury company with one of the cleanest and most interesting capital structures in the market today. This is not a hype video. This is a long-duration, balance-sheet-driven compounding thesis. I break down: Why ASST’s lack of debt matters more than people realize How SATA (perpetual preferred equity) creates Bitcoin amplification without liquidation risk Why maintaining ~31% amplification dramatically changes long-term outcomes What happens to the common stock under 20%, 25%, and 30% Bitcoin CAGR scenarios How Bitcoin per share compounds quietly over time due to the structure itself What dilution, PIPE overhang, and ATMs actually mean in practice Under conservative assumptions, even the lowest modeled Bitcoin growth scenario produces extreme asymmetry over long time horizons. Higher CAGR scenarios push the equity into territory most investors psychologically struggle to model. No multiple expansion assumed. No debt leverage assumed. No heroic assumptions required. This video is about understanding how time, compounding, and capital structure interact, and why that combination can produce non-linear outcomes if Bitcoin continues to succeed. This is not financial advice. This is how I’m thinking about risk, asymmetry, and survival over the next 10 to 20 years:

WHY I AM BUYING STRIVE (ASST) In this video, I walk through my full investment thesis on Strive (ASST), a Bitcoin treasury company with one of the cleanest and most interesting capital structures in the market today. This is not a hype video. This is a long-duration, balance-sheet-driven compounding thesis. I break down: Why ASST’s lack of debt matters more than people realize How SATA (perpetual preferred equity) creates Bitcoin amplification without liquidation risk Why maintaining ~31% amplification dramatically changes long-term outcomes What happens to the common stock under 20%, 25%, and 30% Bitcoin CAGR scenarios How Bitcoin per share compounds quietly over time due to the structure itself What dilution, PIPE overhang, and ATMs actually mean in practice Under conservative assumptions, even the lowest modeled Bitcoin growth scenario produces extreme asymmetry over long time horizons. Higher CAGR scenarios push the equity into territory most investors psychologically struggle to model. No multiple expansion assumed. No debt leverage assumed. No heroic assumptions required. This video is about understanding how time, compounding, and capital structure interact, and why that combination can produce non-linear outcomes if Bitcoin continues to succeed. This is not financial advice. This is how I’m thinking about risk, asymmetry, and survival over the next 10 to 20 years:

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“There was never any talk of the risk.” Peter Schiff is just lying at this point. The risk of $STRC was always obvious: it is preferred equity issued by a Bitcoin Treasury Company. Saylor said it clearly: if Bitcoin goes down long term or forever, that is the risk. And what are we seeing now? Bitcoin under pressure. Liquidity rotated into AI and IPOs. Maximum fear. STRC down. That is not some hidden scandal. That is risk premium repricing. Strategy does not magically control STRC’s market price. They can adjust the dividend rate, but the market prices the risk of Bitcoin and Strategy’s ability to keep paying dividends. And when Bitcoin starts going up again, what do you think happens? The same risk premium reprices in the other direction. If you buy preferred equity in a Bitcoin company, you are making one core assumption: Bitcoin goes up over the long term. That was never hidden.

“There was never any talk of the risk.” Peter Schiff is just lying at this point. The risk of $STRC was always obvious: it is preferred equity issued by a Bitcoin Treasury Company. Saylor said it clearly: if Bitcoin goes down long term or forever, that is the risk. And what are we seeing now? Bitcoin under pressure. Liquidity rotated into AI and IPOs. Maximum fear. STRC down. That is not some hidden scandal. That is risk premium repricing. Strategy does not magically control STRC’s market price. They can adjust the dividend rate, but the market prices the risk of Bitcoin and Strategy’s ability to keep paying dividends. And when Bitcoin starts going up again, what do you think happens? The same risk premium reprices in the other direction. If you buy preferred equity in a Bitcoin company, you are making one core assumption: Bitcoin goes up over the long term. That was never hidden.

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Strive CEO Matt Cole believes AI will cause over 50% turnover in the S&P 500 over the next 10-15 years. The S&P 500 of the future will likely include many Bitcoin Treasury Companies that today are using intelligent leverage and accretive dilution to grow war chests of Bitcoin to be in leading positions for the future.

Strive CEO Matt Cole believes AI will cause over 50% turnover in the S&P 500 over the next 10-15 years. The S&P 500 of the future will likely include many Bitcoin Treasury Companies that today are using intelligent leverage and accretive dilution to grow war chests of Bitcoin to be in leading positions for the future.

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Making Sense Of Bitcoin Treasury Companies If you've been following me on X you’ll know that I have recently been floating a lot of my updated thoughts on the Bitcoin Treasury space. Here I have synthesised all of my ideas and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can find the link in the comments. If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to do is acknowledge an important fact which is that Strategy, as a Bitcoin Treasury Company, is an anomaly. What do I mean by that? Strategy’s success has been defined by a number of unique factors and circumstances, most of which cannot be replicated again by other Bitcoin Treasury Companies. Specifically, there are 6 things that stand out to me. 1. Before adopting Bitcoin, Strategy was a billion dollar company with an operating business that was generating roughly $50M in cash a year. 2. Until the introduction of the ETF's in January 2024, Strategy was the only way for the average investor to gain passive exposure to Bitcoin. 3. Until this year, Strategy was the only way for the average investor to gain leveraged exposure to Bitcoin. 4. Strategy was issuing multiple, billion dollar, zero coupon, unsecured convertible notes at +50% conversion premiums. 5. Strategy has Michael Saylor, who, you don’t need me to tell you, is in a league of his own. 6. For many reasons, including those I’ve just mentioned, Strategy has benefitted disproportionately from the broader sentiment around Bitcoin. In other words, for the best part of 4 years, Strategy had zero competition for either capital or attention. As a result, it became a magnet for capital from anyone who wanted exposure to Bitcoin and it attracted inflows that were beyond what fundamentals alone would maybe justify. Therefore, using Strategy as a blueprint for the performance that you can expect from other Bitcoin Treasury Companies is a bad idea. Using Strategy as a blueprint for how to operate a Bitcoin Treasury Company is a good idea. Now let’s break down what’s unfolded over the last 6 months or so. Between May and June of this year, when we witnessed a flood of new Bitcoin Treasury Companies, we entered what I refer to as the frenzy phase. The frenzy phase was driven almost entirely by sentiment. By sentiment I simply mean emotion. Since then, as sentiment has slowly faded, the market has increasingly priced Bitcoin Treasury Companies based more on fundamentals. By fundamentals I simply mean facts. So where as sentiment is driven by emotion and hype, fundamentals are driven by facts and reason. The problem is that when you price Bitcoin Treasury Companies on fundamentals, you realise that many of them are almost entirely dependent on sentiment in order to expand mNAV so they can raise capital via the common stock ATM to buy Bitcoin and generate Bitcoin Yield. However, for me, raising capital via the common stock ATM and recycling it into Bitcoin is not genuine value creation — it’s value transfer. That’s not to say you shouldn’t leverage the ATM as and when necessary — you should. However, if your business model as a Bitcoin Treasury Company no longer works when “sentiment is low” then you have neither a business model nor a business. You’re the equivalent of a meme stock except with Bitcoin on your balance sheet. On that basis, companies shouldn’t expect to trade at a premium if the common stock ATM is the only way they raise capital. I’m not saying they won’t trade at a premium — I’m saying that companies shouldn’t expect to. Now, between July and now, we’ve obviously seen mNAVs compress substantially and so the frenzy phase is over which means that the days of automatically being granted generous mNAV multiples is also over. So now we are in the maturity phase. The maturity phase is going to be defined by being able to offer a differentiated value proposition and having a sustainable business model that can generate Bitcoin Yield in any environment independent of sentiment. In other words, they can generate Bitcoin Yield when trading at or below 1 mNAV. So essentially now, Bitcoin Treasury Companies have to work for their mNAV multiples — as it should be. Following the maturity phase will be the consolidation phase where capital, Bitcoin and ultimately market share will converge towards a small number of Bitcoin Treasury Companies that will dominate the entire industry. I should clarify that I am referring predominantly to pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Companies — companies who are valued based solely on their Bitcoin strategy. Now, with everything that I’ve said, how should you evaluate Bitcoin Treasury Companies? Hopefully over the next few weeks I’m going to string together a video with my valuation framework. In the meantime, a basic test is that I use is this: How much Bitcoin Yield can the company generate over X period of time — you decide what that period of time is — if it traded at 1x mNAV over that entire period? If the answer is 0, then they are probably entirely dependent on raising capital via the common stock ATM which means they likely don’t deserve a premium. If the answer is >0, then they are probably innovating through the use of other instruments — like converts and preferred products — which means they likely do deserve a premium and so whatever number you come up with should be used as the base for your valuation. Now, don’t be fooled. The Bitcoin Treasury Company space is, not entirely, but to a large degree, a zero-sum game. Every Dollar raised by one Bitcoin Treasury Company is at the expense of every other Bitcoin Treasury Company. Every Bitcoin purchased by one Bitcoin Treasury Company is at the expense of every other Bitcoin Treasury Company. It’s only because we are early that everyone is incentivised to essentially hold hands and cheer each other on. However, make no mistake, everyone involved is tacitly well aware that they are all competing for the same finite amount of capital and the same fixed amount of Bitcoin. Thus, the reality is that, by definition, not every Bitcoin Treasury Company is going to succeed. So choose your horses and jockeys wisely. As a side note, with the amount of Bitcoin Treasury Companies now desperately chasing and competing for the same capital from institutions, who do you think has the leverage; the Bitcoin Treasury Companies or the institutions? I’ll let you decide. Before I close, I want to leave you guys with this. There is a small subset of people invested in Bitcoin Treasury Companies who are desperately clinging on to their bags because they believe “sentiment will return.” These people are completely missing the point. My friends, if your investing philosophy is based on sentiment, you are simply not going to last. You want to base your decisions, as far as possible, on fundamentals. As investors, you either adapt and update your mental models based on how things are and not how you want them to be — or you get left behind. With that in mind: Never get caught up in tribalism. Never get attached to your beliefs. Always think critically. Always think independently. Always seek Truth.

Making Sense Of Bitcoin Treasury Companies If you've been following me on X you’ll know that I have recently been floating a lot of my updated thoughts on the Bitcoin Treasury space. Here I have synthesised all of my ideas and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can find the link in the comments. If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to do is acknowledge an important fact which is that Strategy, as a Bitcoin Treasury Company, is an anomaly. What do I mean by that? Strategy’s success has been defined by a number of unique factors and circumstances, most of which cannot be replicated again by other Bitcoin Treasury Companies. Specifically, there are 6 things that stand out to me. 1. Before adopting Bitcoin, Strategy was a billion dollar company with an operating business that was generating roughly $50M in cash a year. 2. Until the introduction of the ETF's in January 2024, Strategy was the only way for the average investor to gain passive exposure to Bitcoin. 3. Until this year, Strategy was the only way for the average investor to gain leveraged exposure to Bitcoin. 4. Strategy was issuing multiple, billion dollar, zero coupon, unsecured convertible notes at +50% conversion premiums. 5. Strategy has Michael Saylor, who, you don’t need me to tell you, is in a league of his own. 6. For many reasons, including those I’ve just mentioned, Strategy has benefitted disproportionately from the broader sentiment around Bitcoin. In other words, for the best part of 4 years, Strategy had zero competition for either capital or attention. As a result, it became a magnet for capital from anyone who wanted exposure to Bitcoin and it attracted inflows that were beyond what fundamentals alone would maybe justify. Therefore, using Strategy as a blueprint for the performance that you can expect from other Bitcoin Treasury Companies is a bad idea. Using Strategy as a blueprint for how to operate a Bitcoin Treasury Company is a good idea. Now let’s break down what’s unfolded over the last 6 months or so. Between May and June of this year, when we witnessed a flood of new Bitcoin Treasury Companies, we entered what I refer to as the frenzy phase. The frenzy phase was driven almost entirely by sentiment. By sentiment I simply mean emotion. Since then, as sentiment has slowly faded, the market has increasingly priced Bitcoin Treasury Companies based more on fundamentals. By fundamentals I simply mean facts. So where as sentiment is driven by emotion and hype, fundamentals are driven by facts and reason. The problem is that when you price Bitcoin Treasury Companies on fundamentals, you realise that many of them are almost entirely dependent on sentiment in order to expand mNAV so they can raise capital via the common stock ATM to buy Bitcoin and generate Bitcoin Yield. However, for me, raising capital via the common stock ATM and recycling it into Bitcoin is not genuine value creation — it’s value transfer. That’s not to say you shouldn’t leverage the ATM as and when necessary — you should. However, if your business model as a Bitcoin Treasury Company no longer works when “sentiment is low” then you have neither a business model nor a business. You’re the equivalent of a meme stock except with Bitcoin on your balance sheet. On that basis, companies shouldn’t expect to trade at a premium if the common stock ATM is the only way they raise capital. I’m not saying they won’t trade at a premium — I’m saying that companies shouldn’t expect to. Now, between July and now, we’ve obviously seen mNAVs compress substantially and so the frenzy phase is over which means that the days of automatically being granted generous mNAV multiples is also over. So now we are in the maturity phase. The maturity phase is going to be defined by being able to offer a differentiated value proposition and having a sustainable business model that can generate Bitcoin Yield in any environment independent of sentiment. In other words, they can generate Bitcoin Yield when trading at or below 1 mNAV. So essentially now, Bitcoin Treasury Companies have to work for their mNAV multiples — as it should be. Following the maturity phase will be the consolidation phase where capital, Bitcoin and ultimately market share will converge towards a small number of Bitcoin Treasury Companies that will dominate the entire industry. I should clarify that I am referring predominantly to pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Companies — companies who are valued based solely on their Bitcoin strategy. Now, with everything that I’ve said, how should you evaluate Bitcoin Treasury Companies? Hopefully over the next few weeks I’m going to string together a video with my valuation framework. In the meantime, a basic test is that I use is this: How much Bitcoin Yield can the company generate over X period of time — you decide what that period of time is — if it traded at 1x mNAV over that entire period? If the answer is 0, then they are probably entirely dependent on raising capital via the common stock ATM which means they likely don’t deserve a premium. If the answer is >0, then they are probably innovating through the use of other instruments — like converts and preferred products — which means they likely do deserve a premium and so whatever number you come up with should be used as the base for your valuation. Now, don’t be fooled. The Bitcoin Treasury Company space is, not entirely, but to a large degree, a zero-sum game. Every Dollar raised by one Bitcoin Treasury Company is at the expense of every other Bitcoin Treasury Company. Every Bitcoin purchased by one Bitcoin Treasury Company is at the expense of every other Bitcoin Treasury Company. It’s only because we are early that everyone is incentivised to essentially hold hands and cheer each other on. However, make no mistake, everyone involved is tacitly well aware that they are all competing for the same finite amount of capital and the same fixed amount of Bitcoin. Thus, the reality is that, by definition, not every Bitcoin Treasury Company is going to succeed. So choose your horses and jockeys wisely. As a side note, with the amount of Bitcoin Treasury Companies now desperately chasing and competing for the same capital from institutions, who do you think has the leverage; the Bitcoin Treasury Companies or the institutions? I’ll let you decide. Before I close, I want to leave you guys with this. There is a small subset of people invested in Bitcoin Treasury Companies who are desperately clinging on to their bags because they believe “sentiment will return.” These people are completely missing the point. My friends, if your investing philosophy is based on sentiment, you are simply not going to last. You want to base your decisions, as far as possible, on fundamentals. As investors, you either adapt and update your mental models based on how things are and not how you want them to be — or you get left behind. With that in mind: Never get caught up in tribalism. Never get attached to your beliefs. Always think critically. Always think independently. Always seek Truth.

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🔥STRIVE ACQUIRES SEMLER - THE NEW ERA OF BITCOIN TREASURY COMPANIES🔥 Strive ($ASST) just swallowed Semler Scientific ($SMLR) using freshly minted shares as bait, walked away with a mountain of cheap Bitcoin, and left Wall Street clutching its pearls. Watch as the deal math unpacks itself, showing how you can turn equity dilution into a BITCOIN HOARDING SPREE. This is the acquisition arbitrage era, where NAV gaps get strip-mined, diagnostics labs morph into coin vaults, and every undervalued treasury company feels the cold breath of an all-stock predator.

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"The road to hell is paved with carry. People believe it's safe, get greedy, and try to add to that yield with leverage. It works until it doesn't" "Matt Cole, the CEO of Strive, said this was basically the worst day in the history of digital credit" "He said it's a leverage liquidation event, not a credit event"

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MICHAEL SAYLOR: NEVER SELL YOUR BITCOIN IS ADVICE FOR PLEBS, NOT FOR STRATEGY. “I GOT VERY VERY FAMOUS FOR SAYING YOU DO NOT SELL YOUR BITCOIN TO THE PLEBS… THAT IS NOT THE WAY YOU WOULD RUN A BITCOIN FINANCE COMPANY”

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Sam Callahan (Sam Callahan) director of strategy and research at OranjeBTC says that now is the time to be buying Bitcoin. “Now's the time you wanna start to add leverage. If you have a constructive view on Bitcoin long term, it's not when Bitcoin's at all time highs, right? So this is the time to acquire Bitcoin.” #CHAINREACTION

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The real story with Strategy isn't a margin call, it's that buying Bitcoin is now only one of the many things it has to manage "Strategy is not facing an automatic Bitcoin margin call or the imminent liquidation of its treasury. The significance is much subtler. Even the company that created the model has entered a new and more complicated phase" "Strategy is no longer simply raising dollars to buy Bitcoin. It's issuing common and preferred securities, holding billions of dollars, paying dividends, servicing debt, managing liquidity, considering repurchases" "And selling Bitcoin when management believes that is less damaging than issuing more securities. That may be entirely rational"

The real story with Strategy isn't a margin call, it's that buying Bitcoin is now only one of the many things it has to manage "Strategy is not facing an automatic Bitcoin margin call or the imminent liquidation of its treasury. The significance is much subtler. Even the company that created the model has entered a new and more complicated phase" "Strategy is no longer simply raising dollars to buy Bitcoin. It's issuing common and preferred securities, holding billions of dollars, paying dividends, servicing debt, managing liquidity, considering repurchases" "And selling Bitcoin when management believes that is less damaging than issuing more securities. That may be entirely rational"

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Welcome back to The Hurdle Rate. Episode 45: Preferred Equity Demand The crew is back to discuss preferred equity and potential systemic risk to Bitcoin, the Strive + Semler M&A transaction being the first in Bitcoin treasuries, the IBIT Bitcoin covered call ETF, gold and silver price action, what Japan is saying to the world right now, and Bitcoin in an action-packed 2026. Here's the latest with Tim Kotzman, Matt Cole, Jeff Walton and Ben Werkman 0:30 - Welcome Back to The Hurdle Rate 1:10 - Does the Preferred Equity Present a Systemic Risk to Bitcoin? 22:12 - Strive + Semler: The First M&A Transaction in Bitcoin Treasuries 34:00 - IBIT Bitcoin Covered Call ETF 42:21 - Gold & Silver Price Action 48:00 - What is Japan Saying to the World Right Now? 59:24 - Bitcoin in an Action-Packed 2026

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🇷🇺🇮🇷 Putin says Russia has no evidence that Iran is seeking to develop nuclear weapons. He offered to store the uranium and positioned itself as the country that can resolve what Washington has spent months treating as an existential threat.

🇷🇺🇮🇷 Putin says Russia has no evidence that Iran is seeking to develop nuclear weapons. He offered to store the uranium and positioned itself as the country that can resolve what Washington has spent months treating as an existential threat.

Mario Nawfal

88,142 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Chris Millas

36,835 görüntüleme • 11 ay önce

JUST IN: BlackRock CEO says, “There are a number of sovereign funds that are buying” their #Bitcoin ETF incrementally. “You own it over years. This is not a trade.”

JUST IN: BlackRock CEO says, “There are a number of sovereign funds that are buying” their #Bitcoin ETF incrementally. “You own it over years. This is not a trade.”

Bitcoin Magazine

108,096 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce