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A Chinese Weltmeister brand EV started fire by itself while parked. Another Chinese E-HS3 brand EV started fire on the road. Now these are daily even hourly incidents in China. Those Chinese-built dangerous EVs are trying their best to come to North America market.

36,447 views • 2 years ago •via X (Twitter)

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Just finished a one-week trip to China. I've now "survived" all the major (~20) L2 self-driving and robotaxi vehicles in both the US and China. Some thoughts & observations: ▶️L2 self-driving I tested major brands like $Huawei, $Li, $NIO, $Xpeng, and $Xiaomi. Overall, they exceeded my expectations. The rides were not overly cautious and handled complex situations (yes, road conditions in China are very challenging!) quite well. Nothing compares to $Tsla's approach. I see imitation learning/end-to-end as the only effective approach for self-driving. While Chinese peers perform well on main roads, they struggle on frontage roads due to reliance on high-precision maps and rule-based methods (e.g. cars stopped in the middle of the road where there was no clear white lining). Chinese EVs' self-driving capabilities are far ahead of those from US and EU brands. I doubt any Chinese players can profit from L2 self-driving, not because it’s not useful, but because it’s hard to differentiate, and price wars dominate the market in China. Chinese consumers and regulators seem much more receptive to self-driving. Even with a 5/10 self-driving capability, cars are practically *hands-free(!)* Insurance-wise, for L3+ cars, OEMs bear responsibility for incidents, so OEMs avoid labeling cars as L3+. ▶️Robotaxi I tested major brands like $Didi, and $Bidu. I'd rate equal to $Waymo, and it's ahead of other peers. However, the same issue applies here: user experience is nearly perfect (in Yizhuang, Beijing), but expansion is the real question. Chinese robotaxi companies are very sophisticated. While the rest of the world focuses on technology, Chinese peers treat it as a product, considering unit economics, operations, mass production, etc. Interestingly, most companies expressed a preference NOT to operate fleets themselves. They aim to be asset-light and let fleet managers handle operations. Policy Support: China has a very clear approval process, driven by data (autonomous driving distance, fully driverless distance, intervention rate, passenger ratings, etc.). ▶️Chinese EVs In major cities like Beijing or Shanghai, EV adoption (green license plates vs. gas cars with blue license plates) seems to be 40%+. If 40% of cars on the road are EVs, then EV penetration (defined as the % of new car sales) must already be over 50%. In shopping malls, the ground floor is filled with EV showrooms—easily 10+ brands, many of which are unfamiliar Chinese brands. It appears almost too easy to make an electric car, which is a stark contrast to the US. $Xiaomi, for example, can achieve a 10% gross profit margin in its first year of operation, compared to $RIVN's -45%. Additionally, $Xiaomi cars are priced at 30% of $RIVN's price. It's fascinating to see how China transitioned from "couldn't make their own gas cars at all (only JVs)" to "dominating EVs globally." The government deserves credit for setting the direction and executing effectively. China now controls the entire supply chain, with $CATL holding 40% of the global market share. 🔹How did it happen? The success of the industry Incentives were set just right: the government provided incentives early on to make EVs and gas cars have comparable MSRPs, allowing consumers to choose based on functionality. This approach differs from how the IRA offers incentives... Perfectly competitive market: $TSLA was brought in, and competition was welcomed, unlike the US, which has a 100% import tax on Chinese EVs. Strategic regulations: License plate restrictions were used effectively; for example, taxis and minivans are required to be EVs. 🔹The challenges Despite the success, the industry faces challenges with low-margin companies and struggling stocks. The intense competition shows no sign of ending. Well-funded global OEMs and Chinese state-owned car companies continue to subsidize, leading to new EV brands emerging annually. The natural tendency in China is to race to the bottom. I think this ties back to China's history as the "world’s factory," where manufacturers price products at "cost plus" versus the US and developing countries, which price based on "affordability/value creation." 🔹The wow EV feature >Software features that surprised me the most: - Everything in the car can be voice-controlled. Not just simple tasks like playing music; users can adjust the height of the steering wheel and set the temperature easily. - Self-parking, which $Tsla has yet to release to all FSD users, is already a table stake in China (I'd rate the quality as 10/10). >Other fun hardware features: - Mini fridges in the car - Infotainment systems - IoT: remote access the car/home via cellphone - all connected together - Heads-up displays - UV-protected glass roofs: $Xiaomi took $Tsla's design, but the glass roof of the $Xiaomi car is made of double layers with silver, blocking 99.9% of UV and infrared rays...as a result, heat is no longer a problem inside the car

Freda Duan

399,004 views • 2 years ago