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A Fields Medalist walked into a UCLA hall and explained prime numbers to people with no mathematics background. Almost nobody watches it. Terence Tao won the Fields Medal, mathematics' highest honour, then a MacArthur Fellowship less than a month later. He was UCLA's first professor to take the Fields....

50,111 Aufrufe • vor 20 Tagen •via X (Twitter)

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Terence Tao, UCLA professor and the most decorated mathematician alive: "Funds pay $750K to combine weak signals into one real edge. I proved the thing that makes it work and makes it dangerous: in any long enough sequence, hidden structure is unavoidable. it always accumulates. the whole job is telling the real structure from the noise that only looks like it." this free lecture is the most decorated mathematician alive on the exact problem sitting underneath every factor model, and it costs nothing. at the board it's simple. Tao's lifelong theme is the line between structure and randomness. The Erdős discrepancy problem asks a deceptively simple thing: can you write an endless string of plus-ones and minus-ones that stays perfectly balanced forever? Tao proved you cannot. No matter how cleverly you try, imbalance, hidden structure, is forced to accumulate as the sequence grows. There is no such thing as a long stream of pure, structureless noise. That's the whole idea, minus the jargon. Which is exactly why a multi-factor model can work, and exactly why it can kill you. Stack enough weak signals and real structure will appear, because at scale structure is unavoidable. But so will fake structure, patterns that exist only because the data is long enough to force them. Same point as the post above: finding structure is guaranteed. Knowing which structure is an edge is the rare and expensive part. the mathematics is free and public. what nobody can sell you is the judgment to tell the structure the market will pay you for from the structure that exists only because you looked hard enough. That judgment is the alpha, and it takes years to build.

Rossst.03

213,468 Aufrufe • vor 23 Tagen

OpenAI just spent $2,000 to solve 10 problems that have beaten the world's best mathematicians for DECADES. Nobody outside the company is allowed to run the machine that did it. On Saturday OpenAI published a 249-page report and gave its next model family a name: Astra. An internal version of it produced new results on 10 open problems in mathematics and theoretical computer science, and mathematicians had made no real progress on any of them for at least 10 years. On most of them, far longer than that. Here is what it solved: It built the first explicit example of a non-sofic group. Mikhail Gromov raised that question in 1999 and nobody answered it for 27 years. It disproved Connes's rigidity conjecture, a problem in von Neumann algebras that had stood for decades. It proved Ehrhart's volume conjecture. It resolved three problems from Paul Erdos's catalogue, including number 183 on multicolor Ramsey numbers. It produced the first improvement to the general upper bound on high-dimensional sphere packing since 1978. And it proved a new hardness result for the closest vector problem, which sits directly underneath lattice cryptography. That is the math the world is betting on to protect its data once quantum computers arrive. The successful runs cost roughly $2,000 in tokens. Now here is what almost nobody has picked up on... OpenAI did not just publish claims. Every argument shipped with a Lean certificate, which is a machine-checkable proof that any mathematician can verify without trusting OpenAI at all. That is a real change. In May the same model family disproved the Erdos unit distance conjecture and the world had to take a Fields Medalist's word for it. Tim Gowers said he would recommend that proof for the Annals of Mathematics without hesitation. This time the proofs check themselves. But look at what is still unverifiable: Any mathematician can now check those proofs line by line. Not one of them can look at the model that wrote them. Astra has no release date and nobody outside OpenAI has run it. The company announced its next major model family with a claim instead of a demo, and the only evidence anyone gets is the output. So OpenAI made an unfalsifiable claim about a machine look like a falsifiable claim about mathematics. The Information reported this week that OpenAI demoed Astra to US policymakers and regulators in Washington. This is the same month the administration is weighing a new watchdog to vet frontier AI models, reporting to the SEC. 10 proofs nobody believed a machine could produce is a very good thing to carry into that room. And keep in mind, the same model family doing this mathematics is the family that kept escaping its own testing environment. OpenAI models found zero-day vulnerabilities nobody knew existed, broke out of a sealed research sandbox, and reached another company's live systems. Both of those facts come from OpenAI's own announcements, published three weeks apart. Finding a proof no human could construct and finding a hole no human had noticed are the same ability aimed at different targets. Mathematicians are already asking for independent verification, and plenty of people online are calling the whole thing hype. Thomas Bloom, who runs the Erdos problems site, called the 10 results big news and said they matter more than the May result did. Lean will settle the mathematics within weeks. But nothing will settle what else a machine this capable is being pointed at, because nobody outside one company is allowed to look.

Ricardo

43,436 Aufrufe • vor 13 Tagen

Persi Diaconis, Stanford mathematician and former professional magician: "I spent fifty years proving one thing: almost nothing is as random as it looks. The 50.75% that built Renaissance wasn't luck. It was a tiny crack in the randomness, found and repeated a million times." this free lecture holds the exact idea the thread above is built on. and the man giving it isn't a trader. he's a stanford professor and former professional magician who spent his career on one question: where does real randomness end, and where does a hidden edge begin. here is his life's finding. a coin, a shuffle, a market, all look random, yet each hides a faint, measurable bias. on its own that bias is nothing, indistinguishable from luck. repeat it enough times and it stops being luck and becomes a law. that faint crack, found and repeated, is the whole distance between a 50.75% win rate and a hundred billion dollars. none of this is new or hidden. diaconis has taught it for decades, the math runs back to 1713, and the lecture is free. i mapped the full system in my article, expected value, kelly, and this. same point the thread makes: the edge was sitting in plain sight. here is the part the gurus skip. a faint edge only pays if you survive long enough to reach it, and that takes correct sizing and the patience to trust it through thousands of losing-looking trades. most quit while it still looks like randomness. the math is free. the nerve to hold it is the edge.

Rossst.03

230,514 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat