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A GOOGLE ENGINEER STOOD UP AT A C++ CONFERENCE AND TOLD THE ROOM THAT THE DATA STRUCTURE YOU REACH FOR BY REFLEX -- THE LINKED LIST -- IS ALMOST ALWAYS THE WRONG ANSWER. NOT SLOWER BY A LITTLE. SLOWER BY SO MUCH THAT USING IT IS QUIETLY THROWING AWAY...

55,761 次观看 • 1 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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The creator of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) put a number on the AI build that should stop every infra investor cold. A cluster of a million GPUs runs at roughly 10-20% utilization (Save this). Kim Jung-ho spent thirty years building what feeds the GPU, and his claim is that the GPU is barely working. Here is what is actually happening. Every time a model generates output, the data has to be read out of memory, computed, and written back. The read and the write swallow almost the entire cycle. While that data moves, the GPU does nothing. It sits there, fully powered, fully paid for, waiting. By Kim's estimate the memory is doing only about 30 percent of the work it needs to do. The processor idles the rest. So a million installed GPUs run at 10 to 20 percent. You are not compute constrained. You are memory constrained, and the expensive part is standing around. Adding more GPUs does not fix this. It gives you more processors starving for the same data. Here is the part that decides the next decade. Memory can grow. When a cell cannot shrink any further, you stack it into a high-rise, layer on layer. A GPU cannot be stacked. It runs too hot and needs a cooler bolted to its back, so the one move that rescues memory is closed to the processor. The thing that can keep stacking compounds. The thing that cannot plateaus. The marginal dollar in an AI build now buys more by fixing the memory path than by bolting on another idle GPU. Which is why the companies that control memory bandwidth and supply are not suppliers to the AI trade. They are the AI trade.

Fireside Alpha

38,370 次观看 • 2 个月前

Terence Tao, UCLA professor and the most decorated mathematician alive: "Funds pay $750K to combine weak signals into one real edge. I proved the thing that makes it work and makes it dangerous: in any long enough sequence, hidden structure is unavoidable. it always accumulates. the whole job is telling the real structure from the noise that only looks like it." this free lecture is the most decorated mathematician alive on the exact problem sitting underneath every factor model, and it costs nothing. at the board it's simple. Tao's lifelong theme is the line between structure and randomness. The Erdős discrepancy problem asks a deceptively simple thing: can you write an endless string of plus-ones and minus-ones that stays perfectly balanced forever? Tao proved you cannot. No matter how cleverly you try, imbalance, hidden structure, is forced to accumulate as the sequence grows. There is no such thing as a long stream of pure, structureless noise. That's the whole idea, minus the jargon. Which is exactly why a multi-factor model can work, and exactly why it can kill you. Stack enough weak signals and real structure will appear, because at scale structure is unavoidable. But so will fake structure, patterns that exist only because the data is long enough to force them. Same point as the post above: finding structure is guaranteed. Knowing which structure is an edge is the rare and expensive part. the mathematics is free and public. what nobody can sell you is the judgment to tell the structure the market will pay you for from the structure that exists only because you looked hard enough. That judgment is the alpha, and it takes years to build.

Rossst.03

213,931 次观看 • 1 个月前

Jensen Huang just made the case that the smartest person in the room is now the most replaceable person on earth. Huang: “The definition of smart is somebody who’s intelligent, solve problems, technical. But I find that that’s a commodity. And we’re about to prove that artificial intelligence is able to handle that part easiest.” The skill you built your entire identity around was the first thing the machine replicated. Not the hardest part. The easiest. Huang: “People who are able to see around corners are truly, truly smart. And their value is incredible. To be able to preempt problems before they show up, just because you feel the vibe.” Huang: “That vibe came from a combination of data, analysis, first principle, life experience, wisdom, sensing other people.” The vibe is not intuition. It is decades of failed bets, human friction, and first-principles thinking compressed into a single read no model can replicate. You cannot prompt your way to it. You earn it by surviving things that had no instructions. Huang: “I think long term the definition of smart is someone who sits at that intersection of being technically astute, but human empathy and having the ability to infer the unspoken, around the corners, the unknowables.” Every institution you ever passed through graded you on the one thing the machine now does for free. The thing they never tested you on is the only thing that still matters. Huang: “And that person might actually score horribly on the SAT.” The SAT did not measure intelligence. It measured obedience to structure. The future does not reward what you can solve inside a framework someone handed you. It rewards what you can see when no framework exists. The machine did not replace human intelligence. It revealed that what we spent a century calling intelligence was never intelligence at all. The people who memorized the answers are about to work for the people who sensed the questions before anyone thought to ask.

Dustin

123,807 次观看 • 1 个月前

Elon Musk just put a number on the flaw at the center of Nvidia’s empire. Wall Street has not done the math yet. Nvidia’s Blackwell is the most sought-after silicon on Earth. Every AI lab wants it. Every sovereign nation is bidding for it. Blackwell runs every model, for every company, in every data center on the planet. That universality built the empire. It is also the fracture point. Musk: “We believe the AI5 chip will be about a third of the power of an Nvidia Blackwell for roughly comparable performance. And much less than 10% of the cost.” One-third the power. Comparable performance. Less than ten percent of the cost. Musk: “This is a chip that is very much optimized for the Tesla AI software stack. It’s not meant to be a general purpose chip.” Nvidia builds silicon that serves a million different customers. Every transistor spent on universal compatibility is a transistor not dedicated to one task. Tesla is building silicon for exactly one customer. Itself. When you strip away every function you will never call, you do not get a lesser chip. You get a weapon. Here is what the market refuses to see. Data centers drink unlimited power from the grid. Robots run on batteries. Musk: “In order to have a functional robot, you have to have a great AI chip. And it needs to be an inexpensive chip and it needs to be very power efficient.” You cannot put a Blackwell inside a walking machine. It would drain the battery before it crossed the room. The entire AI revolution lives inside air-conditioned buildings bolted to the electrical grid. Musk is not competing for that market. He is engineering the silicon that survives outside of it. One-third the power is not a spec sheet footnote. It is the physics threshold that severs intelligence from the wall socket. Without that number, every robot on Earth stays tethered. With it, the algorithm walks. Less than ten percent of the cost is not a pricing strategy. It is the line where a machine brain stops being a capital expenditure and becomes a commodity component. When the chip inside a humanoid costs less than the motors in its legs, you do not manufacture hundreds of robots. You manufacture millions. Wall Street is valuing the AI revolution by who dominates the data center. Musk is building the only silicon designed to leave one. Nvidia built the brain of the cloud. Musk is building the brain of the physical world. No one has priced that in yet.

Dustin

160,633 次观看 • 4 个月前

Larry Ellison just told every software engineer on Earth their job description is dead. Not evolving. Dead. Ellison: “The code that Oracle is writing, Oracle isn’t writing. Our AI models are writing.” This is not a startup demo. This is one of the largest infrastructure monopolies on the planet telling you it already replaced the people who built it. For fifty years, building software meant translating human intent into machine instructions. Line by line. Bug by bug. Sprint by sprint. That entire layer is gone. Ellison: “We don’t write the procedure. We declare our intent.” That sentence just made the entire engineering labor market flinch. The procedure was the job. The procedure was the paycheck. The procedure was what made a developer valuable. And now the machine does it without being asked twice. Ellison: “We just tell the model what we want the program to do, and then the AI comes up with a step-by-step process to actually do it.” You are no longer paid to build. You are paid to think. And most organizations have no idea how to evaluate that. The companies still hiring armies of developers to grind through codebases are paying salaries the machine already made worthless. Not in years. In seconds. When a company worth hundreds of billions hands the keyboard to the machine and tells you the output is better, the debate is not winding down. The debate is over. The enterprise that wins this decade does not write the best code. It removes the human from the process entirely and runs on intent alone. The programmers who survive are the ones who realize the craft is no longer typing. It is architecture. It is judgment. It is knowing what to build and why. Everything else now belongs to the machine. And the machine does not negotiate severance.

Dustin

536,121 次观看 • 5 个月前

You already know the story of the bullet holes on the planes. You have heard it a dozen times. And you are still making the exact mistake it warns about, probably today. The man behind it was Abraham Wald, 1943. You know how it goes. Bombers came home covered in bullet holes, wings and fuselage riddled, engines almost clean. The officers said armor the holes. Wald said armor everywhere else. Because the data was only the planes that came back. The ones hit in the engines never returned to be counted. The clean spots on the survivors were the deadly spots on the dead. That part you remember. Here is the part you skip. You repeat this story, then you open a list of the best investments of the last ten years, and every name on it is a plane that made it home. The winners survived. The ones that blew up are not on the list. They never come back to be counted. You know the bias by name and you buy the survivors anyway. Every track record you are shown was selected for coming home. The failures are silent, and the silence is not empty. It is the whole answer. Your eyes read the bullet holes as danger. The real danger is always the plane that is not on the chart. Wald saw it with pen and paper because he counted what was missing instead of what was in front of him. That is the entire skill. Not knowing the story. Doing what it tells you, which almost nobody does. The idea is free. It has been famous for 80 years. Most people still armor the bullet holes with their own money.

Zyron

71,727 次观看 • 1 个月前