A hill I will die on is this that statcast is never right. They said this homerun went 404. The wall is 368. Theres what 18 levels of bleachers at like 5 feet each and the ball hits the scoreboard. In what world is that 404

No. It's 440. Not 404.

440 still doesn't feel right

sure it does. For an oppo HR? it's hard for anyone to do more than that.

@Stemack Here’s what blows me away. That’s 70 feet over the wall. That means if the wall was the plate, that ball would’ve only barely cleared the mound…if that makes sense (60 feet plate to mound, then another ten feet).

@mike_petriello @Stemack I always think about this. I think they undersell some of these bombs by dozens of feet.

@originalGCL @Stemack Funny how people always think they should be longer, but never shorter

You believe there is 5ft between each row of bleachers? Lmao

It’s so dumb 110% right on this one

Bro its bothered me for years

When the launch angle is that high, a lot of the ball’s velocity is going upward instead of carrying it forward. It looks like it should travel farther because it went to the moon, but at nearly 40° LA, you’re sacrificing some horizontal distance for that height. He absolutely crushed it, but the energy just leaked into the vertical direction.

A 413ft fly ball caught in front of a wall 409ft away. The math ain't mathin.

too high, too high

Aisles take up less than 3 ft per row and there are about 13 rows before the stadium overhang which would be about... 404 feet

More context on this statcast reading…

"I don't understand it and I will make no effort to understand it"

okay once again: because statcast treats batted balls like Pocket Tanks. just exit velocity and launch angle. it does NOT include batted ball spin, which actually creates lift and adds distance (if it has proper backspin). just wait til nerds realize batted ball spin matters

I thought it was 450+ when he hit it can't imagine it only would have traveled 7 more feet on the way down

Have you ever been to a ball park? 5 feet for each row? Are you fucking high right now?

The ground distance from the plate to the front of the scoreboard is ~405 feet. Considering the ball is on a significant downward trajectory by the time it hits the scoreboard, assuming another 35 feet if the scoreboard wasn’t there seems pretty reasonable.

It’s calculated on its presumed landing location at ground level

I mean, who cares? It’s a home run. That’s all that matters.

It was corrected to 440 feet, which is close. The wild thing is… 440 oppo!

Reality, lol. There is not 5 feet in between rows of seats. Not even close. More like 2.

5 feet each????

said the same thing about a murakami HR back in april (the one that went over the batter’s eye against the A’s). terribly inaccurate technology

440, not 404. It had a steep 39 degree launch angle which easily explains why it looks so impressive. We got to see it fly almost the entire 440 ft, it would not have gained much additional distance had it been allowed to fall to ground level unobstructed.

460-480

It was 440. They updated it.

From the wall to the scoreboard is only about 45-55 feet, so 440 seem pretty accurate.

5 feet estimate is too high

I’m with you bro. Mind you 400 is straightaway center field. No way that 404

It's not 5 feet for each row

I did google earth and it’s 405 to the scoreboard. I’ll assume that’s accurate but it’s a measurement from space down to the foot so take it for what it is.

I can't find a video clip of this. But this Park is 408 to CF. : ??? @swbrailriders

Not perfect by any means but i agree. Its closer to the 450-470 range and…. Opposite field 🤯

It's probably closer to 3.5-4ft per row. And at 18rows * 4ft/row +368ft =440ft Ta-da!

Yeah statcast just uses launch angle and exit velocity to project distance. As an Astros fan I’ve seen plenty of Yordan HRs that say they only went 384 that clearly were 600 ft

Wind was blowing out to left that day. Perhaps statcast’s equation only considers exit velocity and launch angle and does not consider any weather conditions that could alter the ball’s trajectory.

Stat cast is absolutely trash.

I said the same thing ur 100% right they are never accurate

I'm putting it At 468. That ball was clearing 100 ft past the fence!