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A Kenyan politician specializing in foreign relations and security put it bluntly: “It is #Ethiopia that stands accused of irredentism.” He added that Addis Ababa now finds itself increasingly isolated — with virtually every major actor, from the #US and #SaudiArabia to #China, the #ArabLeague, and multiple #African states...

54,482 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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🚨#Breaking: Djibouti Offers Ethiopia Full Control of Port in Bid to Counter Somaliland Djibouti's Foreign Minister, Mahmoud Ali Youssef ( Mahmoud Ali youssouf ), has proposed granting Ethiopia 100% control of the port of Tajourah, along with a new corridor leading to the port, as a solution to Ethiopia's lack of sea access. In an interview with the BBC, Youssef stated that the proposal, which includes a newly constructed corridor connecting the port to the Ethiopian border, aims to resolve Ethiopia's longstanding issue of accessing the sea. He indicated that President Ismail Oma Geela will discuss the proposal with leaders from Somalia and Ethiopia during the upcoming China-Africa summit next week. The proposal comes amidst heightened tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia over the recent agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland, which Somalia vehemently opposes. Djibouti, meanwhile, is engaged in an economic war with Somaliland, aiming to hinder its economic growth and international recognition. Youssef believes this proposal could create a win-win situation for all parties involved. However, the proposal is primarily aimed at strengthening Djibouti's economic dominance over Ethiopia, while simultaneously bolstering Somalia's claims to Somaliland and hindering its recognition. The potential impact of this proposal on Somaliland's economic growth and its pursuit of international recognition remains a key concern. In both cases, whether an agreement is reached between Ethiopia and #Somaliland or between #Djibouti and #Ethiopia for access to the sea, Ethiopia may achieve its goals, leaving Somaliland in opposition to both Somalia and Djibouti.

Mariam Robly | مريم روبلى

24,961 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

The upcoming weeks could be a period that requires close attention in terms of the geopolitical direction of East Africa. The overall picture in Addis Ababa indicates that the region is passing through a critical threshold. We are in Addis Ababa as part of President Erdoğan’s visit to Ethiopia. 1. This year marks the 100th anniversary of Ethiopia–Türkiye relations. Türkiye’s first embassy in Sub-Saharan Africa was opened in Addis Ababa in 1926. The main theme of the visit, consistent with this historical continuity, is a “Permanent Partnership.” 2. Ethiopia occupies an extremely sensitive position within the conflict-prone and competitive environment of the Horn of Africa. The leadership seeks to consolidate its position on issues it considers vital. At the same time, it tends to turn any emerging opportunity into a strategic gain. 3. However, growing demographic pressure, economic challenges, the fatigue of internal conflict, and other domestic vulnerabilities-combined with the structural disadvantages of being a landlocked country-are pushing Addis Ababa toward alternative strategic options. 4. In this context, the strategy of “access to the sea” is seen as a form of strategic relief-both for managing internal pressures and deepening regional influence. Creating economic breathing space, reducing logistical dependence, and increasing strategic maneuverability are the core motivations behind this approach. 5. This places Ethiopia in a difficult equation: it must produce policy within a competitive-and at times confrontational-regional environment where its ambitions may clash with the sovereignty sensitivities of its neighbors. The search for maritime access therefore stands out as an issue that could easily harden the region’s fragile balance. 6. Its closer alignment with the UAE in the Sudan civil war reflects the cumulative pressures of multiple security and economic challenges. Recent developments suggest that Ethiopia may seek a more active and visible role in the Sudan file in the near term. 7. At the same time, military movements along the Eritrean border carry risks that could trigger a new confrontation. For Ethiopia, the Eritrea issue is directly linked to its most critical maritime option. Access to the sea through Assab remains central to its strategic thinking. Historical grievances and current security concerns are deeply intertwined in this file. 8. Another critical relationship is with Egypt. The core issue here is the Nile Basin and water security. While the GERD dam represents energy production, development, and strategic leverage for Ethiopia, it is perceived by Egypt as a high-risk scenario. What began as a technical water management issue has evolved into a geopolitical matter directly tied to regional power balances. 9. When regional dynamics and the engagement of external actors are considered together, it becomes clear that Ethiopia is navigating a multilayered but high-risk foreign policy landscape-one that affects fault lines across North Africa, the Middle East, the Gulf, and the Horn of Africa. 10. Within this broader tension environment, Türkiye-Ethiopia relations remain in a positive trajectory. Despite differences in certain areas, the potential for deeper cooperation is high. Today, both leaders delivered strong messages in this direction. 11. President Erdoğan’s visit comes at a time when regional conflict dynamics are becoming increasingly visible. Ankara is seeking to develop a balancing approach aimed at preventing potential conflicts and lowering rising regional tensions. Given that Türkiye has both direct and indirect interests tied to the nature of its relationship with Ethiopia, the process is being managed with careful strategic consideration. 12. From arrival to departure, President Erdoğan was warmly received in Addis Ababa. The key areas of focus included economic cooperation, defense industry partnerships, and critical regional issues. Murat Yeşiltaş SETA

Tunç Demirtaş

14,114 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten