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a quant at Two Sigma told me something at a bar i can't stop thinking about "retail looks at price. we look at the autocorrelation of price changes - completely different signal" i asked him to explain it like i was 12 he drew on a napkin: if today's...

149,183 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat •via X (Twitter)

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a quant at a prop firm showed me a 5x5 grid on a napkin said: > this is our entire edge. we don't predict price. we predict which box the market is in and where that box historically leads i didn't understand it for weeks. then it clicked never looked at a chart the same way since grid is called a Markov Chain transition matrix. the math is from 1906, it's in every probability textbook on earth and hedge funds use it because it asks a completely different question than retail traders ever ask retail: will this go up or down quant: what state is this market in, and where does this state typically go every market lives in one of maybe 5-6 states at any given moment tight range, volatility compression, trending with momentum, post-spike reversal, pre-breakout coil not random labels - clusters you identify from actual data using volatility, volume, and momentum readings stacked together once you have the states, you build the matrix: P(state 2 -> state 4) = 73% P(state 4 -> state 1) = 61% P(state 1 -> state 3) = 68% each cell is a historical probability. now when the market is in state 2, you're not guessing you're betting on 73% historical completion. you size it with Kelly. you take the trade when the math says to, not when it feels right i built this on BTC using 2 years of 4-hour data. identified 5 states one i labeled "volatility compression below 20-day mean for 6+ consecutive candles" transitioned to a directional move above 1.8 ATR in 71% of cases average reward/risk on those trades: 5.4 that's not prediction. that's reading a probability table the market keeps filling in for you every single day the part that should bother you: the data to build this is free. the framework is in any quant textbook python to implement it is maybe 200 lines what Renaissance Technologies has that you don't isn't secret data or proprietary signals it's this framework applied to higher-resolution data with more sophisticated state definitions you're not missing information you're asking the wrong question every single time you open a chart

Livsun

187,776 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

7 years of trading options. Lost over $30,000. Blown accounts I can't even count. There was a point I seriously considered quitting forever. I was making less than $ 30k at my 9-5. Struggling financially. Struggling mentally. Trading was supposed to be the way out. Instead it became the thing that was destroying me. I remember one point, it was 2am. I was staring at my brokerage screen after blowing $500 on a revenge trade. Kept refreshing hoping the number would change. It never did. Too embarrassed to tell anyone. Dodging family questions. Starting to wonder if maybe I just wasn't smart enough. Maybe these traders on social media had something I didn't. I tried everything. Every YouTube strategy. Every Discord. Spent thousands on courses. Scalping. Swing trading. Signals. Indicators. All of it. Every time - further in the hole. Then one January morning. Down $4,000 year to date. Sat on the edge of my bed, head in my hands. Told myself I was done. And then I realized something. I had been treating trading like gambling. Forcing trades. Oversizing. Chasing. Revenge trading. I scrapped everything. Started over with tiny positions and a checklist . One rule: if a trade doesn't meet every condition, I don't take it. Doesn't matter how good it looks. The edge was being boringly selective, not finding a better setup. That's when everything changed. 7 years later. I'm consistently profitable. I still have a full-time job (a better one now). The centerpiece of that checklist is something most retail traders have never heard of. It's called GEX - Gamma Exposure. Every time you buy an options contract, someone has to be on the other side of that trade. That someone is almost always a market maker - firms like Citadel, SIG, Wolverine. They don't want directional risk. They just want to collect the spread. So the moment they sell you that contract, they immediately go into the market and hedge their position by buying or selling the underlying shares. That hedging is not optional. They have to do it. Continuously. All day long. As price moves. At certain price levels there is a massive concentration of forced buying or forced selling from those dealers. Price reacts to those levels because dealers are mechanically obligated to transact there. That's a GEX level. Not a line you drew on a chart. Not a pattern you spotted. A level backed by real institutional positioning data. I pull the GEX map every single morning using ITMatrix HQ before I open a single chart. It shows me exactly where the major levels are, what kind of environment I'm trading in, and where the clean air is between levels. So instead of guessing where price might react - I know where it has to. Because it almost always behaves the exact same way! But GEX is only one piece of it. The checklist has four components total. And all four have to be green before I place a single trade. Miss one - I wait. That's what makes it an A+ setup. I used it to turn $1,000 into $21,000, and I consistently collect around 5k every month from trading alone! If all this sounds complicated, watch the video below. The checklist is FREE btw - I recently turned it into a web app find it in the comments below ↓

Nick Ireland

20,376 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat