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A QUANT SPENT YEARS AND A PHD BUILDING A STRATEGY THAT LOSES MORE THAN HALF ITS TRADES AND STILL PRINTS The secret is one line. w(t) = Rmax/(J·σ_risk) · (Σ sⱼ) · [1 + η·Σ 𝟙(c ≥ nₖ)] It sizes every bet by current risk, and that last bracket...

53,012 次观看 • 14 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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Elon Musk gave the entire entertainment industry its expiration date, and he is the one building the thing that kills it. Musk: “My guess is that we see the first compelling half hour, pure AI show next year.” Next year. A complete show generated entirely by AI. No writers. No actors. No cameras. No sets. No crew. No studio. Just a prompt and enough compute to render a reality that never physically existed. And shows are the easy part. Musk: “I say probably we’re maybe three years away from AI does the whole video game.” A show plays the same way every time. A game has to generate a living world that reacts to every decision in real time across every single frame. That is a fundamentally harder class of problem. And Musk put three years on it. Right now a single AAA title takes seven years and half a billion dollars across thousands of engineers and artists just to ship it. Musk is describing a world where one person types a paragraph and gets something comparable. The entire value proposition of a multi-billion dollar industry lives inside that gap. And it closes in thirty-six months. But the prediction is not the story. The person making it is. This is not an analyst speculating from the sidelines. This is the man building the largest AI compute clusters on the planet. The man who built xAI from zero in under two years. The man stacking hundreds of thousands of GPUs into facilities designed to do exactly what he is describing. When Musk says three years, he is not guessing about what someone else might eventually ship. He is reading you a delivery date off his own roadmap. Every media company on Earth is valued on a single assumption. That quality content is expensive and difficult to produce at scale. That one assumption is the structural foundation underneath every studio, every network, and every publisher in existence. Musk is dismantling it with raw compute. The studios still parading thousand-person production teams are not demonstrating strength. They are advertising the exact cost structure that one person with a prompt and a GPU allocation is about to make irrelevant. And it does not stop at entertainment. If AI can generate an interactive world that responds to human input in real time, it can generate anything. Advertising. Architecture. Training simulations. Product design. Every industry built on humans manually constructing visual experiences frame by frame is sitting on the same countdown Musk just read out loud. Now zoom out. Because this is not just an industry story. For the entire history of human civilization, the distance between imagining a world and actually creating one required thousands of people, millions of hours, and billions of dollars. That distance built Hollywood. That distance built the gaming industry. That distance made content scarce and studios powerful. Musk is collapsing that distance to zero. When the gap between imagining something and it existing disappears, every business model built on the difficulty of creation disappears with it. That is not disruption. That is a full inversion of how human beings create. Musk did not make a casual prediction on that podcast. He told you what he is building. He told you the timeline. And he told you which industries do not survive it. The entertainment industry is still debating whether this future is real. Musk is not part of that debate. He is building. And he just told you the delivery date.

Dustin

21,842 次观看 • 17 天前

I built a custom TradingView indicator with Claude Code & Fable 5. It's called the Storm Gauge and is built off a real quant trading strategy. I open-sourced the full code on GitHub. Free to install, free to fork, yours to improve. Here's how to install a quant indicator on your TradingView chart: What it actually is The Storm Gauge is a live implementation of the GARCH model, a Nobel Prize-winning volatility framework that real quant desks run daily. It forecasts how "violent" tomorrow's market could be by combining three inputs: an asset's baseline volatility, yesterday's shock, and where volatility was already sitting before that shock happened. It doesn't predict market direction. Instead, it measures risk, in real time, on your actual chart. How to install it Method 1. Plugin command Open the GitHub repo: Find the installation section, copy the command, and paste it into Claude Code. It runs the plugin install automatically. Method 2. Manual config Open garchmethod.md in the repo, copy the entire file, and paste it into Claude Code. It fetches the skill files directly and verifies the strategy for you. (you only need one method; I'm just showing both) Getting it onto your TradingView chart Inside the repo, there's a Pine Script folder. Open it, copy the entire file. Go into TradingView's Pine Editor, paste it in, hit Enter, and refresh. That's it. The Storm Gauge now runs live on your chart as a real number. Once it's installed, just talk to it: → "What's the volatility forecast on Bitcoin?" → "Explain what the current volatility forecast means on $BTC and how it should impact my position sizing" → "Help me size my S&P500 position according to current market volatility" Does it actually work? I backtested the same EMA cross strategy two ways across 15 years of BTC data. Same entries, same exits. → Fixed position sizing: $17,957 final equity → Storm Gauge (GARCH) sizing: $21,205 final equity Fewer drawdowns, less risk, better result. Full breakdown of the entire build process in my recent article - pinned on my profile.

Miles Deutscher

55,704 次观看 • 9 天前

The largest theft in history has already happened. The people behind it just cannot open what they stole yet. Right now, intelligence agencies and criminal groups are quietly copying the world's encrypted data, bank records, medical files, state secrets, private messages, and storing every byte untouched. They cannot read any of it. They are collecting it anyway, because they know the key is about to be invented. The strategy has a name, harvest now, decrypt later, and in 2026 it stopped being theory. Washington declared this the Year of Quantum Security in January, backed by the FBI, the NSA, and NIST. Canada ordered every federal agency to file a migration plan by April. Europe set its deadline for December. Governments do not impose operational deadlines on a someday problem. They do it when the clock is already running. Here is what moved the clock. Every password, every transfer, every secret on Earth is protected by one assumption, that a certain math problem is too hard to solve. Quantum computers solve exactly that problem. For years the machine that could do it looked decades away. Then in late 2025 Google's Willow chip cracked the hardest part of building one, and in March 2026 Google's own researchers estimated that breaking the encryption behind Bitcoin might take fewer than 500,000 qubits, down from 20 million, and could run in minutes. The day this becomes real has a name, Q-Day, and the latest estimates place it between 2030 and 2033. Now make it concrete. Roughly 6.5 million Bitcoin, about a third of every coin that will ever exist, worth close to 500 billion dollars, sit in addresses that have already exposed the very key a quantum computer needs. That includes the coins of Satoshi, the anonymous creator. On Q-Day they become, in the researchers' own word, trivially stealable. It would not look like a crash or a whale selling. It would look like half a trillion dollars of the most secure money ever built simply walking out the door. The asset designed to trust no one and no institution turns out to rest on a single unverified bet, that one math problem stays hard forever. This is what sits beneath the entire digital world. A bank balance, a Bitcoin, a classified cable, all of it is real only because of a proof you supposedly cannot forge. Quantum breaks the proof. Everything we call secure is true only until someone finally checks, and for the first time the check is visible on the horizon. You cannot know whether your data has already been copied. You cannot know the exact day the key arrives. The trust holding up the digital age is a clock counting down to a zero no one can see. The honest counter matters. No machine on Earth can break this encryption today, and serious cryptographers still argue the real threat is a decade or more away. The timeline is far from certain. Quantum-safe codes already exist, the migration has started, and Bitcoin can move its coins to safety before Q-Day if it acts in time. The danger is not that everything breaks tomorrow. It is that anything which must stay secret into the 2030s, a state secret, an identity, a private key, is being stolen today and is already on the clock. The breach is not coming. It is already here, sitting in storage, perfectly encrypted, waiting for a machine that does not exist yet to read it out loud. Research and opinion, not investment advice.

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

185,238 次观看 • 1 个月前

Is Michael Saylor about to get a margin call? No. And the reason is more interesting than the rumor, because what he built instead may be harder to escape than one. A margin call needs a lender who can seize collateral when the price drops. Strategy has none. Its $6.7 billion in debt is convertible notes, the largest tranche due in 2029, with no loan-to-value trigger and no clause that lets anyone take a coin because Bitcoin fell. Saylor learned that in 2022, when he did have a collateralized loan and sweated a liquidation price, then rebuilt the structure so it could never happen again. On the literal question he is right, and the people calling for his liquidation this week do not understand what they see. But killing the fast death created a slow one almost nobody is pricing. To fund his buying, Saylor issued a mountain of perpetual preferred stock that pays a fixed dividend forever, near 11.5 percent, no matter where Bitcoin trades. That annual bill quadrupled from about $300 million in January to roughly $1.2 billion now, while the cash reserve that pays it fell 38 percent this year to near $1.4 billion, after the company spent $1.5 billion in May retiring debt. Put those two numbers together and you get the figure that actually matters, and it is not a Bitcoin price. It is a countdown. Dividend coverage, the time the cash can keep paying that bill, has collapsed from more than seven years in early 2026 to between ten and fourteen months, depending on whose math you use. Months, not years. The market is already pricing it, just not where the rumor is looking. That preferred stock is engineered to sit at $100. Last week it cracked to $82.50, a record 17.5 percent below par. That discount is investors quietly clocking the strain while the timeline screams about a margin call that cannot happen. There is a clean way out, and it is the one door the structure was built to keep shut. Restoring a safe two years of coverage takes about $2.8 billion, roughly double what Strategy holds, and the fastest path there is to sell Bitcoin. But selling crystallizes a $10.6 billion loss, breaks the never-sell promise that gives the stock its premium, and bleeds the very asset the machine exists to hoard. The exit and the wound are the same cut. He already brushed it, selling 32 coins on June 1 to cover a payment. Thirty-two against more than 847,000 is a rounding error in size and an earthquake in meaning, because the company that swore it would never sell, sold, to pay a dividend. And there is a second trigger almost no one has read, buried in the fine print. If Saylor ever simply skips a preferred payment to save cash, the missed amount compounds, the senior layer can ratchet its rate higher, a senior miss freezes payments to every junior layer beneath it, and after enough missed quarters those preferred holders can start taking board seats. No one seizes a coin. But control begins migrating to the people he owes. The clock does not just run down. It hands away the keys at the end. So the honest verdict is the one neither side is shouting. There is no margin call and no imminent bankruptcy. The structure protects him exactly as designed. What it cannot protect him from is a fixed bill that grows while the cash shrinks, where every exit deepens the hole. Sell Bitcoin and break the story. Issue stock into a price near its lowest since 2024 and punish your holders. Skip the dividend and start losing the company by the boardroom. Saylor did not escape the margin call. He traded a cliff for a clock. A cliff takes you in an afternoon and a stranger pulls the trigger. This clock takes months, and at the end the trigger is pulled by the only two forces he swore would never touch it, his own hand, or the people he owes. The rumor asks whether someone is about to call his loan. The real question is how many months he can keep paying before he has to sell the dream, dilute the believers, or hand over the board to keep the lights on.

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

58,542 次观看 • 1 个月前

this is worth more than most five figure courses 16 claude agents audit an entire repo at once, a second fleet re-checks every finding on fresh context, and the whole thing runs off one diagram instead of a prompt i ran it against my own code and got back 11 endpoints where i never checked who was logged in, 3 of which the verifier threw out before they ever reached me this is Graph Engineering, the layer above prompting, and it runs on the agent you already pay for: - write your plan out, then ask one question at every "and then": does the next step actually read what the previous one produced - the seams that fail that question were never dependencies, so those jobs run at the same time - the arrows that survive are your real edges, and the longest chain of them is your floor that no number of agents shortens - want it faster, cut a false edge instead of adding a worker - fan the independent work out, one agent per item, no shared state between them - send every finding to a separate agent on fresh context, because a model recognises its own writing 73.5% of the time and grades it kinder once it does - make that verifier check a real signal like a passing test, never the worker's own word that it finished - shard the fleet across worktrees so parallel workers stop overwriting each other, one rule frozen into every worker: never git stash, never git reset - merge only what came back verified, into one report instead of twenty open chats the catch is the ceiling. at 95% independent work 16 agents return 9.14x rather than the 16 you would guess, and even 256 only reach 18.6x, because the merge and the verify stay serial however wide you fan coordination itself is free plain code and every agent underneath it is billed, so start at twenty files and widen once it works bookmark this, the whole method with all six ready-to-run graphs is written out in the article ↓

Argona

154,880 次观看 • 6 天前

China's central bank has now bought gold for 19 months straight, the largest official buyer on earth. And this week, as gold broke 4,000 dollars, China's biggest banks moved to push ordinary Chinese out of leveraged gold trading, with at least one warning it will liquidate any position not closed by month-end. Both are true at once, and together they explain what this crash really is. Start with what is being banned, because the words matter. ICBC and a string of other banks are shutting down retail trading in what the Chinese themselves call paper gold, the margined, leveraged contracts where you bet on the price without ever owning a bar. Some banks lifted the margin requirement to 140 percent to choke the leverage off before closing the products outright. Physical gold, meanwhile, stays wide open. Coins, bars, savings plans, ETFs, all fine. It is only the paper, the leverage, the casino, that is being shut, the last step in a five-year retreat that the crash just finished. Officially this is about protecting small investors, and that part is real. The same kind of leverage wiped out a wave of Chinese retail in a 2020 commodity blowup. But set the ban beside what the state is doing and something larger comes into view. While its citizens are pushed out of the paper, the People's Bank of China has spent those same 19 months buying the physical metal, more than two thousand three hundred tonnes of it now, accumulating straight through a 28 percent crash that scared everyone else out. Beijing is not trading gold. It is hoarding it. That is the strategy in one frame. China looked at the two things both called gold, the paper bet and the physical bar, and made a choice no Western government would make. It is taking the metal for the state and closing the casino for everyone else. The reason sits in a single date. 2022, when Russia's reserves were frozen with a keystroke. That taught every country outside the Western system one lesson: dollars in an account can be switched off, gold in your own vault cannot. So China is building its monetary independence out of the one asset nobody can freeze, and it does not want that foundation in the hands of leveraged traders who panic-sell in a crash, or priced by a paper market it does not control. Watch this month and the two worlds split in real time. Western investors were forced out of their gold by margin calls and a rate scare. China's central bank bought that exact dip with both hands. One side treats gold as a trade. The other treats it as the floor under a currency. The West is selling paper gold and calling it a crash. China is buying physical gold and calling it a foundation. In ten years, only one of them will look like it understood what gold was for. The metal is already moving to that side.

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

326,755 次观看 • 1 个月前

JUST IN: Bank of America just told its clients to take profits. About 70% of its bear-market signals are flashing, a level it typically reaches only near market tops. Weeks earlier, BofA's own fund manager survey showed the largest one-month jump into stocks ever recorded, with cash down to 3.9%, under the 4% line the bank treats as a sell signal. Read those together. Investors made their biggest dash into equities in the survey's history at almost the exact moment BofA's own indicators say the top is near. But the number that should actually stop you is buried in the note, and almost nobody is quoting it. The companies driving this entire rally, the AI hyperscalers, are on track to spend nearly 100% of their operating cash flow on capex by year-end. In 2023 that figure was 40%. Sit with that. Big tech used to throw off cash and hand it back through buybacks, which lifted the stocks. Now it is pouring almost every dollar it generates into chips and data centers. BofA notes buybacks have slowed and cash conversion has flat-lined. The engine of the rally is consuming the fuel that powered the stocks. It is the same $725 billion build that companies are now blaming for layoffs. The whole market is priced on one bet, and that bet has grown large enough to eat the cash that used to support the share prices. This is not a crash call. BofA's year-end target is 7,100, about 4% below today, and the median outcome after this cash signal since 2011 has been a 1% dip, not a collapse. The posts screaming sell everything are wrong. The real message is quieter. You are being paid less and less to stay, while the engine runs hotter and hotter.

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

17,235 次观看 • 1 个月前

Jeff Bezos just told you exactly how to price AI. Nobody listened. Bezos: “AI is real and it is going to change every industry. In fact it’s a very unusual technology in that regard in that it’s a horizontal enabling layer.” Horizontal enabling layer. Three words that reprice the entire technology sector. The iPhone was a vertical. One product. One new market. Electricity was a horizontal. One substrate that rewired every market on Earth. Wall Street is pricing AI like it is the next iPhone. Bezos is telling you it is the next electrical grid. Right now, thousands of companies are trying to sell AI as a product. A feature. A tool. A subscription tier. Every single one of them will be priced to zero. You do not sell a horizontal layer. You do not compete with it. You build on top of it or you disappear beneath it. For a century, entire industries survived on one thing. Complexity. The friction of navigating law, medicine, logistics, finance. That was the moat. If you could not memorize the maze, you could not compete. A horizontal layer does not navigate the maze. It dissolves the walls. Electricity did not compete with the candle industry. It erased the need for one. The most dangerous part of a horizontal shift is how quiet it is. It moves underneath the economy. The surface looks normal. Revenue still holds. Every day you operate on the old substrate, you accumulate a debt you cannot see and cannot repay. The internet repriced distribution. AI is repricing cognition itself. When intelligence becomes a utility that runs through the walls of every company on Earth, the premium on human expertise does not erode. It evaporates. This is not a disruption. Disruptions replace products. This replaces the ground you are standing on.

Dustin

540,824 次观看 • 3 个月前

The world just paid $2 trillion for a rocket company that lost $4.9 billion last year. And the rockets are not why it lost the money. They are the only part making any. SpaceX went public Friday, the largest IPO in history. Up 19%, a $2 trillion valuation, Elon Musk the first trillionaire. Then you open the filing. Three businesses sit inside it. Starlink, the satellites, brought in $11.4 billion, 61% of all revenue, and $4.4 billion in profit. It is the only piece that earns a dollar. The rockets that land themselves run a small loss reinvesting in Starship. And the AI arm, Grok plus the app once called Twitter, folded in this February, lost $6.4 billion in a single year on $12.7 billion of spending. Read that again. The satellites pay for everything. The AI loses more than the satellites make. And the AI is the part the market fell in love with. It gets bolder. The prospectus claims a total market of $28.5 trillion, the largest any company has ever put in a filing. Larger than the GDP of the United States. That is the number underwriting a $2 trillion price tag built on a division bleeding $6 billion a year. Now the structure. About 4% of the company trades. That sliver sets the price for all of it. Musk is locked up for 366 days and holds roughly 80% of the votes. The public bought a company they cannot steer, priced on the one segment losing the most. This is the whole year in one ticker. The profit is satellites. The story is AI. The market bought the story. The rockets were never the risk. The risk is a $2 trillion price resting on the one bet that has yet to make a cent.

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

721,741 次观看 • 1 个月前

The first time people see this place, they assume it is AI-generated. It is not. This wonder is real and it has stood in the sea for thirteen hundred years... It is called Mont Saint-Michel, a small island off the coast of Normandy, where a medieval abbey rises in tiers of stone straight out of the sea, climbing to a single golden spire nearly a hundred metres above the water. There is nothing around it. It stands alone in a vast bay, and the effect is so strange that the eye struggles to accept it: a whole city of stone, floating between the water and the sky. What makes it stranger still is that the sea around it disappears. Mont Saint-Michel sits in a bay with the highest tides in continental Europe. Twice a day the ocean retreats for kilometres, leaving the abbey stranded on a desert of wet sand, and twice a day it floods back in and turns the rock into an island again. The same place is, within hours, surrounded by ocean and surrounded by emptiness. For more than a thousand years, this rhythm has never once stopped. Victor Hugo, who loved it, described it perfectly in 1884: “Mont-Saint-Michel is to France what the Great Pyramid is to Egypt.” I started this newsletter because our past is extraordinary, and fewer and fewer people are showing us how to truly see it. Every week I try to. If that is something you would like to be part of, you can join at the link below, and if you'd like to support my work, a paid subscription is what makes it possible: Thanks for reading.

James Lucas

327,054 次观看 • 1 个月前