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A quantitative fund founded by pro poker players quietly controls an $800,000,000,000 options empire Susquehanna (SIG) handles 20% of the US options market. They treat trading like a solved math equation, using pure probability to extract the house edge Are you the casino calculating probabilities, or the gambler hoping... show more

ludoonchart

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131,573 次观看 • 3 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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A single algorithmic firm quietly trades $50,000,000,000 every single day Hudson River Trading (HRT) controls 10% of the ENTIRE US stock market. They don’t draw trendlines. They use pure math like Hidden Markov Models to decode invisible regimes from noise If 10% of the market is controlled by pure math, what is your actual edge? Drop your thoughts in the comments Bookmark & watch HRT's Head of AI explain how their algorithms dominate the market below. Then read the quoted thread to see the exact math they use

A single algorithmic firm quietly trades $50,000,000,000 every single day Hudson River Trading (HRT) controls 10% of the ENTIRE US stock market. They don’t draw trendlines. They use pure math like Hidden Markov Models to decode invisible regimes from noise If 10% of the market is controlled by pure math, what is your actual edge? Drop your thoughts in the comments Bookmark & watch HRT's Head of AI explain how their algorithms dominate the market below. Then read the quoted thread to see the exact math they use

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MUST-WATCH: Why SIG Dominated Options Trading — Explained by an 8-Year Insider Kris Abdelmessih (Kris) spent 8 years trading energy derivatives at SIG, then ran options businesses at Parallax & Prime before founding Moontower —one of the world's most popular newsletters on options & volatility trading. "SIG understood there was an abnormal amount of edge in the market. They came from gambling—sports betting, poker—where edge was tiny. A bookie makes 5% margins. But trading a $2.5 call spread for $2.20 when it's worth $2.50? That's a ridiculous amount of edge compared to gambling, with the same risk distribution." We cover: - Why SIG was called "the evil empire" & how they crushed competitors by trading massive size for tighter spreads - The exact structure of prop shop deals: 50/50 splits, escrow accounts, how you get to 60% then 70% payouts - Why markets look efficient from most vantage points & how trading is ultimately about labor—getting your vantage point close enough that it stops looking random - The tyranny of beta: why the best operator in a melting ice cube business will lose to a mediocre performer in a great market - How to escape the "striver" trap & tune out status optimization (hint: find what you got obsessed with before college applications mattered) - Teaching his 12-year-old options market making & involving his 9-year-old in building a trading card game—scattered cards on the bedroom floor that'll become a finished product Thanks to Kris for the masterclass. Highlights: 02:05 How Kris first recognized real trading edge 04:01 How early market structure created easy edge 05:27 Why improvement in trading comes from hindsight 07:08 The core SIG frameworks that shaped his edge 09:37 Why uncovering edge requires labor and precision 11:02 How informed order flow forces trader humility 12:53 What truly differentiated SIG from competitors 13:23 How SIG built a world-class education pipeline 16:30 How SIG captured edge by refusing to hedge 18:11 How centralized risk controlled exposure and variance 19:09 How SIG used size and spreads to dominate markets 23:20 What Kris learned working with Jason McCarthy 25:40 Why elite traders share extreme competitiveness 26:06 How top performers operate across domains and PM roles 28:22 How Kris transitioned from SIG to prop trading 31:56 What shifting into senior roles taught him about trading 33:46 How Kris built training and feedback systems for traders 35:00 How the backer model works inside prop shops 38:41 How escrow capital protects traders from tail events 41:03 How natural gas options trading changed with regime shifts 42:13 How Kris applies trading edge concepts to life decisions 45:46 Why personal alignment beats chasing status in trading 47:13 How status games distort decision-making for young traders 52:23 Why striver behavior is actually risk management 56:27 How Kris teaches opportunity cost through parenting 1:01:28 How exposing kids to decisions builds intuition 1:04:46 How Kris teaches EV using homemade trading games 1:08:05 How iteration and feedback loops shape real learning

MUST-WATCH: Why SIG Dominated Options Trading — Explained by an 8-Year Insider Kris Abdelmessih (Kris) spent 8 years trading energy derivatives at SIG, then ran options businesses at Parallax & Prime before founding Moontower —one of the world's most popular newsletters on options & volatility trading. "SIG understood there was an abnormal amount of edge in the market. They came from gambling—sports betting, poker—where edge was tiny. A bookie makes 5% margins. But trading a $2.5 call spread for $2.20 when it's worth $2.50? That's a ridiculous amount of edge compared to gambling, with the same risk distribution." We cover: - Why SIG was called "the evil empire" & how they crushed competitors by trading massive size for tighter spreads - The exact structure of prop shop deals: 50/50 splits, escrow accounts, how you get to 60% then 70% payouts - Why markets look efficient from most vantage points & how trading is ultimately about labor—getting your vantage point close enough that it stops looking random - The tyranny of beta: why the best operator in a melting ice cube business will lose to a mediocre performer in a great market - How to escape the "striver" trap & tune out status optimization (hint: find what you got obsessed with before college applications mattered) - Teaching his 12-year-old options market making & involving his 9-year-old in building a trading card game—scattered cards on the bedroom floor that'll become a finished product Thanks to Kris for the masterclass. Highlights: 02:05 How Kris first recognized real trading edge 04:01 How early market structure created easy edge 05:27 Why improvement in trading comes from hindsight 07:08 The core SIG frameworks that shaped his edge 09:37 Why uncovering edge requires labor and precision 11:02 How informed order flow forces trader humility 12:53 What truly differentiated SIG from competitors 13:23 How SIG built a world-class education pipeline 16:30 How SIG captured edge by refusing to hedge 18:11 How centralized risk controlled exposure and variance 19:09 How SIG used size and spreads to dominate markets 23:20 What Kris learned working with Jason McCarthy 25:40 Why elite traders share extreme competitiveness 26:06 How top performers operate across domains and PM roles 28:22 How Kris transitioned from SIG to prop trading 31:56 What shifting into senior roles taught him about trading 33:46 How Kris built training and feedback systems for traders 35:00 How the backer model works inside prop shops 38:41 How escrow capital protects traders from tail events 41:03 How natural gas options trading changed with regime shifts 42:13 How Kris applies trading edge concepts to life decisions 45:46 Why personal alignment beats chasing status in trading 47:13 How status games distort decision-making for young traders 52:23 Why striver behavior is actually risk management 56:27 How Kris teaches opportunity cost through parenting 1:01:28 How exposing kids to decisions builds intuition 1:04:46 How Kris teaches EV using homemade trading games 1:08:05 How iteration and feedback loops shape real learning

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233,306 次观看 • 6 个月前

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229,396 次观看 • 3 个月前

Inside Susquehanna International Group with Todd Simkin Todd Simkin led trader education & development at SIG, one of the most elite prop trading firms on the planet, for decades. He's now Head of Insurance at River's Edge, Susquehanna's managing general underwriter. We cover: - Why SIG trains traders with poker before they touch a market - The one trait great traders have that can't be taught - How SIG's flat org structure (3 titles, total) creates true meritocracy - Why the flop in poker maps directly to the top of the order book - SIG's expansion into sports trading, private equity, venture & reinsurance - How River's Edge prices NIL deals, Eagles Super Bowl promos & catastrophe risk - SIG's 25-year bet on prediction markets — & their relationship with Kalshi - Why titles are cheap & what SIG rewards instead Highlights: 00:00 Intro 01:01 What makes a great quant trader 02:26 How Susquehanna trains decision-making under uncertainty 03:05 Susquehanna interview philosophy: process, updating, communication 03:41 Teaching derivatives, options pricing, and risk from scratch 04:21 Using games to model trading concepts 05:11 Poker as a controlled model of asymmetric information 05:41 Internal Susquehanna trading games and mock trading structure 06:51 How mock trading reveals signal vs. noise 11:30 What traits can’t be trained 16:19 How Susquehanna screens for untrainable traits in interviews 20:41 Why internship performance is noisy 24:41 How pods work inside Susquehanna 26:11 Titles are meaningless at Susquehanna 34:01 Building SEG RE and expanding insurance capacity 43:31 25-year internal belief in prediction markets at Susquehanna 55:01 Closing remarks

Inside Susquehanna International Group with Todd Simkin Todd Simkin led trader education & development at SIG, one of the most elite prop trading firms on the planet, for decades. He's now Head of Insurance at River's Edge, Susquehanna's managing general underwriter. We cover: - Why SIG trains traders with poker before they touch a market - The one trait great traders have that can't be taught - How SIG's flat org structure (3 titles, total) creates true meritocracy - Why the flop in poker maps directly to the top of the order book - SIG's expansion into sports trading, private equity, venture & reinsurance - How River's Edge prices NIL deals, Eagles Super Bowl promos & catastrophe risk - SIG's 25-year bet on prediction markets — & their relationship with Kalshi - Why titles are cheap & what SIG rewards instead Highlights: 00:00 Intro 01:01 What makes a great quant trader 02:26 How Susquehanna trains decision-making under uncertainty 03:05 Susquehanna interview philosophy: process, updating, communication 03:41 Teaching derivatives, options pricing, and risk from scratch 04:21 Using games to model trading concepts 05:11 Poker as a controlled model of asymmetric information 05:41 Internal Susquehanna trading games and mock trading structure 06:51 How mock trading reveals signal vs. noise 11:30 What traits can’t be trained 16:19 How Susquehanna screens for untrainable traits in interviews 20:41 Why internship performance is noisy 24:41 How pods work inside Susquehanna 26:11 Titles are meaningless at Susquehanna 34:01 Building SEG RE and expanding insurance capacity 43:31 25-year internal belief in prediction markets at Susquehanna 55:01 Closing remarks

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34,855 次观看 • 5 个月前

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28,977 次观看 • 2 年前

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382,262 次观看 • 2 个月前

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875,882 次观看 • 3 个月前

Jane Street pays $750k/ year for quants who can answer how to use Stochastic Process and Markov Chains in quant trading. MIT professor gives you the same insights quants get paid $70K/month for in a 1-hour lecture on probabilities Bookmark & watch today. Then read the post below.

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30,050 次观看 • 3 个月前