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A quantitative fund founded by pro poker players quietly controls an $800,000,000,000 options empire Susquehanna (SIG) handles 20% of the US options market. They treat trading like a solved math equation, using pure probability to extract the house edge Are you the casino calculating probabilities, or the gambler hoping... show more

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131,573 views • 3 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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A single algorithmic firm quietly trades $50,000,000,000 every single day Hudson River Trading (HRT) controls 10% of the ENTIRE US stock market. They don’t draw trendlines. They use pure math like Hidden Markov Models to decode invisible regimes from noise If 10% of the market is controlled by pure math, what is your actual edge? Drop your thoughts in the comments Bookmark & watch HRT's Head of AI explain how their algorithms dominate the market below. Then read the quoted thread to see the exact math they use

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MUST-WATCH: Why SIG Dominated Options Trading — Explained by an 8-Year Insider Kris Abdelmessih (Kris) spent 8 years trading energy derivatives at SIG, then ran options businesses at Parallax & Prime before founding Moontower —one of the world's most popular newsletters on options & volatility trading. "SIG understood there was an abnormal amount of edge in the market. They came from gambling—sports betting, poker—where edge was tiny. A bookie makes 5% margins. But trading a $2.5 call spread for $2.20 when it's worth $2.50? That's a ridiculous amount of edge compared to gambling, with the same risk distribution." We cover: - Why SIG was called "the evil empire" & how they crushed competitors by trading massive size for tighter spreads - The exact structure of prop shop deals: 50/50 splits, escrow accounts, how you get to 60% then 70% payouts - Why markets look efficient from most vantage points & how trading is ultimately about labor—getting your vantage point close enough that it stops looking random - The tyranny of beta: why the best operator in a melting ice cube business will lose to a mediocre performer in a great market - How to escape the "striver" trap & tune out status optimization (hint: find what you got obsessed with before college applications mattered) - Teaching his 12-year-old options market making & involving his 9-year-old in building a trading card game—scattered cards on the bedroom floor that'll become a finished product Thanks to Kris for the masterclass. Highlights: 02:05 How Kris first recognized real trading edge 04:01 How early market structure created easy edge 05:27 Why improvement in trading comes from hindsight 07:08 The core SIG frameworks that shaped his edge 09:37 Why uncovering edge requires labor and precision 11:02 How informed order flow forces trader humility 12:53 What truly differentiated SIG from competitors 13:23 How SIG built a world-class education pipeline 16:30 How SIG captured edge by refusing to hedge 18:11 How centralized risk controlled exposure and variance 19:09 How SIG used size and spreads to dominate markets 23:20 What Kris learned working with Jason McCarthy 25:40 Why elite traders share extreme competitiveness 26:06 How top performers operate across domains and PM roles 28:22 How Kris transitioned from SIG to prop trading 31:56 What shifting into senior roles taught him about trading 33:46 How Kris built training and feedback systems for traders 35:00 How the backer model works inside prop shops 38:41 How escrow capital protects traders from tail events 41:03 How natural gas options trading changed with regime shifts 42:13 How Kris applies trading edge concepts to life decisions 45:46 Why personal alignment beats chasing status in trading 47:13 How status games distort decision-making for young traders 52:23 Why striver behavior is actually risk management 56:27 How Kris teaches opportunity cost through parenting 1:01:28 How exposing kids to decisions builds intuition 1:04:46 How Kris teaches EV using homemade trading games 1:08:05 How iteration and feedback loops shape real learning

MUST-WATCH: Why SIG Dominated Options Trading — Explained by an 8-Year Insider Kris Abdelmessih (Kris) spent 8 years trading energy derivatives at SIG, then ran options businesses at Parallax & Prime before founding Moontower —one of the world's most popular newsletters on options & volatility trading. "SIG understood there was an abnormal amount of edge in the market. They came from gambling—sports betting, poker—where edge was tiny. A bookie makes 5% margins. But trading a $2.5 call spread for $2.20 when it's worth $2.50? That's a ridiculous amount of edge compared to gambling, with the same risk distribution." We cover: - Why SIG was called "the evil empire" & how they crushed competitors by trading massive size for tighter spreads - The exact structure of prop shop deals: 50/50 splits, escrow accounts, how you get to 60% then 70% payouts - Why markets look efficient from most vantage points & how trading is ultimately about labor—getting your vantage point close enough that it stops looking random - The tyranny of beta: why the best operator in a melting ice cube business will lose to a mediocre performer in a great market - How to escape the "striver" trap & tune out status optimization (hint: find what you got obsessed with before college applications mattered) - Teaching his 12-year-old options market making & involving his 9-year-old in building a trading card game—scattered cards on the bedroom floor that'll become a finished product Thanks to Kris for the masterclass. Highlights: 02:05 How Kris first recognized real trading edge 04:01 How early market structure created easy edge 05:27 Why improvement in trading comes from hindsight 07:08 The core SIG frameworks that shaped his edge 09:37 Why uncovering edge requires labor and precision 11:02 How informed order flow forces trader humility 12:53 What truly differentiated SIG from competitors 13:23 How SIG built a world-class education pipeline 16:30 How SIG captured edge by refusing to hedge 18:11 How centralized risk controlled exposure and variance 19:09 How SIG used size and spreads to dominate markets 23:20 What Kris learned working with Jason McCarthy 25:40 Why elite traders share extreme competitiveness 26:06 How top performers operate across domains and PM roles 28:22 How Kris transitioned from SIG to prop trading 31:56 What shifting into senior roles taught him about trading 33:46 How Kris built training and feedback systems for traders 35:00 How the backer model works inside prop shops 38:41 How escrow capital protects traders from tail events 41:03 How natural gas options trading changed with regime shifts 42:13 How Kris applies trading edge concepts to life decisions 45:46 Why personal alignment beats chasing status in trading 47:13 How status games distort decision-making for young traders 52:23 Why striver behavior is actually risk management 56:27 How Kris teaches opportunity cost through parenting 1:01:28 How exposing kids to decisions builds intuition 1:04:46 How Kris teaches EV using homemade trading games 1:08:05 How iteration and feedback loops shape real learning

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233,306 views • 6 months ago

This CNBC debate nearly destroyed a live broadcast over one question: is the US heading for a debt crisis? one host said "that's a lie - that's an outright lie." the other told him to take it back Bookmark & Watch it. Then read the post below - how Ray Dalio built the world's largest hedge fund ↓

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Inside Susquehanna International Group with Todd Simkin Todd Simkin led trader education & development at SIG, one of the most elite prop trading firms on the planet, for decades. He's now Head of Insurance at River's Edge, Susquehanna's managing general underwriter. We cover: - Why SIG trains traders with poker before they touch a market - The one trait great traders have that can't be taught - How SIG's flat org structure (3 titles, total) creates true meritocracy - Why the flop in poker maps directly to the top of the order book - SIG's expansion into sports trading, private equity, venture & reinsurance - How River's Edge prices NIL deals, Eagles Super Bowl promos & catastrophe risk - SIG's 25-year bet on prediction markets — & their relationship with Kalshi - Why titles are cheap & what SIG rewards instead Highlights: 00:00 Intro 01:01 What makes a great quant trader 02:26 How Susquehanna trains decision-making under uncertainty 03:05 Susquehanna interview philosophy: process, updating, communication 03:41 Teaching derivatives, options pricing, and risk from scratch 04:21 Using games to model trading concepts 05:11 Poker as a controlled model of asymmetric information 05:41 Internal Susquehanna trading games and mock trading structure 06:51 How mock trading reveals signal vs. noise 11:30 What traits can’t be trained 16:19 How Susquehanna screens for untrainable traits in interviews 20:41 Why internship performance is noisy 24:41 How pods work inside Susquehanna 26:11 Titles are meaningless at Susquehanna 34:01 Building SEG RE and expanding insurance capacity 43:31 25-year internal belief in prediction markets at Susquehanna 55:01 Closing remarks

Inside Susquehanna International Group with Todd Simkin Todd Simkin led trader education & development at SIG, one of the most elite prop trading firms on the planet, for decades. He's now Head of Insurance at River's Edge, Susquehanna's managing general underwriter. We cover: - Why SIG trains traders with poker before they touch a market - The one trait great traders have that can't be taught - How SIG's flat org structure (3 titles, total) creates true meritocracy - Why the flop in poker maps directly to the top of the order book - SIG's expansion into sports trading, private equity, venture & reinsurance - How River's Edge prices NIL deals, Eagles Super Bowl promos & catastrophe risk - SIG's 25-year bet on prediction markets — & their relationship with Kalshi - Why titles are cheap & what SIG rewards instead Highlights: 00:00 Intro 01:01 What makes a great quant trader 02:26 How Susquehanna trains decision-making under uncertainty 03:05 Susquehanna interview philosophy: process, updating, communication 03:41 Teaching derivatives, options pricing, and risk from scratch 04:21 Using games to model trading concepts 05:11 Poker as a controlled model of asymmetric information 05:41 Internal Susquehanna trading games and mock trading structure 06:51 How mock trading reveals signal vs. noise 11:30 What traits can’t be trained 16:19 How Susquehanna screens for untrainable traits in interviews 20:41 Why internship performance is noisy 24:41 How pods work inside Susquehanna 26:11 Titles are meaningless at Susquehanna 34:01 Building SEG RE and expanding insurance capacity 43:31 25-year internal belief in prediction markets at Susquehanna 55:01 Closing remarks

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Alex Karp on the trap of listening to analysts: "almost everybody else has outsourced value assessment to experts. but i can't think of any expert class that's been right about anything substantive in the last 20 years." most people just want to be told what to do. they sit on their hands. they wait for an upgrade or a newsletter to tell them it is safe to buy if you need someone else to validate your entry, you are exit liquidity analysts do not predict the market. they just look at a chart after a huge green candle and write a report explaining why it happened Karp built his company by ignoring the standard playbook. he knows how this works. you wait for wall street to give you permission, and the trade is already over stop asking for a safe setup. look at the actual numbers. hit the button before it hits the news bookmark and watch the interview below

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🏆 Ladies Event Seat Giveaway! 🏆 🎉 Ladies, this is your chance to win a $1000 seat to the prestigious Ladies Bracelet Event! 🎉 I’ve partnered with ACR Poker ACR Poker to offer one lucky winner an opportunity to join me in this incredible event. Are you ready to showcase your skills and compete with the best? Here’s how to enter: 1.Follow me and ACR Poker on Instagram/Twitter (whichever platform you’re using). 2. Like this post. 3.Share this post to your story (tag both of us!). 4.Comment below with a picture of your best poker moment! It could be a winning hand, your favorite poker setup, or even a poker face selfie. 🃏 Bonus Entry: Tag a poker-loving friend who would love to see you win! Deadline: The winner will be announced next Wednesday June 12th. Get creative, show your poker spirit, and you could be joining me at the Ladies Event, courtesy of ACR! Good luck! 🍀 #PokerLadies #ACR

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MIT Professor just revealed the exact mathematical framework behind quant trading and zero-sum edge. 80-minutes. free. By Ian Bell. here's what they cover: • how von Neumann proved moving first isn't a disadvantage in zero-sum games • Nash equilibrium vs. security strategies (minimax & maximin algebra) • why chess has an exact objective outcome (1, -1, or 0) • von Neumann poker model - proving bluffing as pure math Bookmark & watch today. Then read the article below.

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They laughed at him on CNBC for two years straight, then everything he said came true "it's going to be a devastating recession. Not just a few quarters." the market lost $10 trillion, Lehman collapsed, millions lost their homes... Bookmark & Watch it. Then read the post below how the CEO of Citadel started with $265K and turned it into $90 billion ↓

They laughed at him on CNBC for two years straight, then everything he said came true "it's going to be a devastating recession. Not just a few quarters." the market lost $10 trillion, Lehman collapsed, millions lost their homes... Bookmark & Watch it. Then read the post below how the CEO of Citadel started with $265K and turned it into $90 billion ↓

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Ken Griffin just explained exactly why you keep losing money when asked how Citadel made the biggest profit in wall street history during the 2022 crash - he exposed the cold truth: "in 2022 the market crashed 20% and regular investors got wiped out - we didn't panic, we just ran the math and walked away with $16 billion in pure profit" "people sit at home drawing lines on charts hoping to guess the next big trend - we spend $1 billion a year on computers that execute 7 million trades a day" "we don't care if a company is good or bad - we execute 20% of all us volume every single day just scooping up the pennies that retail traders drop out of fear" Griffin didn't build a $60 billion empire by predicting the future. He built it by exploiting the fear and greed of regular people with cold, ruthless speed bookmark and watch him break down the reality of the game

Ken Griffin just explained exactly why you keep losing money when asked how Citadel made the biggest profit in wall street history during the 2022 crash - he exposed the cold truth: "in 2022 the market crashed 20% and regular investors got wiped out - we didn't panic, we just ran the math and walked away with $16 billion in pure profit" "people sit at home drawing lines on charts hoping to guess the next big trend - we spend $1 billion a year on computers that execute 7 million trades a day" "we don't care if a company is good or bad - we execute 20% of all us volume every single day just scooping up the pennies that retail traders drop out of fear" Griffin didn't build a $60 billion empire by predicting the future. He built it by exploiting the fear and greed of regular people with cold, ruthless speed bookmark and watch him break down the reality of the game

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382,262 views • 2 months ago

He took 50% of all profits and still returned 30% a year to his clients, the FBI wiretapped Wall Street for the first time ever to find out how you will hear secretly recorded calls, watch FBI agents track traders from their homes to the subway, and see how one fund made $275 million on a single insider tip Bookmark & Watch it. Then read the post below ↓

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Сarm1ne

875,882 views • 3 months ago

Jane Street pays $750k/ year for quants who can answer how to use Stochastic Process and Markov Chains in quant trading. MIT professor gives you the same insights quants get paid $70K/month for in a 1-hour lecture on probabilities Bookmark & watch today. Then read the post below.

Jane Street pays $750k/ year for quants who can answer how to use Stochastic Process and Markov Chains in quant trading. MIT professor gives you the same insights quants get paid $70K/month for in a 1-hour lecture on probabilities Bookmark & watch today. Then read the post below.

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30,050 views • 3 months ago