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After Kimi K3 became a huge hit, Washington is once again rolling out the same old script: China must have “distilled” American models. China’s answer was basically: our AI has nothing to do with your political hysteria. Stop dragging us into your protectionist theater. China builds AI around openness,...

15,630 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat •via X (Twitter)

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Microsoft just betrayed OpenAI and Anthropic, the two companies it helped build. And it could break the entire AI trade... Here's what happened: Inside Excel and Outlook, two of the most used business apps on Earth, Microsoft has started routing tens of thousands of AI requests every week to its own in-house models instead of OpenAI and Anthropic. Microsoft's own AI chief, Mustafa Suleyman, said himself: "We pay a lot of money to Anthropic, so our goal is to reduce and ultimately ELIMINATE that cost." This is the company that poured $13 billion into OpenAI and effectively created the modern AI industry, and it just decided the most advanced models on the market are NOT worth paying for. And here's the thing... Microsoft is not just ripping out OpenAI everywhere - it is being surgical about it. The hardest and rarest tasks can still go to OpenAI or Anthropic. What Microsoft is taking back is the boring, high-volume work, like the email replies, the thread summaries, and the simple spreadsheet formulas. Why does that matter so much? Because that boring, repetitive work is where the actual money lives. The frontier labs assumed businesses would push BILLIONS of these tiny requests through expensive models forever. That endless river of tokens is the entire reason OpenAI and Anthropic are valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Microsoft looked at that river, decided it was massively overpaying, and rerouted it to models it owns outright. So the single biggest customer in the industry just walked off with the most profitable part of the business. And it is not only Microsoft: That same week, CNBC reported that American companies have been escaping to Chinese AI models to dodge rising US prices. Chinese models now handle more than 30% of US companies' AI usage on one major platform, peaking at 46%, up from an average of 11% a year earlier. They cost 60 to 90% less, and on some benchmarks they land within a single point of the best American model. One US startup moved ALL of its AI traffic off Claude and onto China's DeepSeek, and expects to save millions. Meanwhile Meta just admitted it has "excess" AI compute it wants to sell, becoming the first giant to concede it built far too much. Do you see the pattern forming? For two years, the entire AI story rested on one assumption: Every company on Earth would happily pay premium prices for the best model, forever. That assumption literally died in a single week. And the market noticed. More than a trillion dollars has been wiped off AI and chip stocks in a matter of days, as Wall Street finally started asking whether all of this spending will ever pay for itself. What this means for OpenAI and Anthropic: Their models are extraordinary, and it may not matter because their own biggest customers have decided they do not NEED the best model in the world to answer an email, and "good enough" now costs a fraction of the price. When even Microsoft refuses to pay full price for AI, the real question becomes who exactly IS left to pay it. What do you think?

Ricardo

92,971 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

This is the moment Chinese AI beat American AI. One of the largest public crypto companies in the world just DUMPED OpenAI and Anthropic. Coinbase switched to open-weight Chinese models from Zhipu and DeepSeek, and shaved nearly 50% off the company's internal AI spending. The numbers are absolutely ridiculous: Running the same enterprise workload through Anthropic's Claude costs $4,811. Running it through Zhipu's GLM 5.2 costs $544. That's a 9x price difference for equivalent output. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 sits in the middle at $3,357. DeepSeek's V4 lands at $1,071. Moonshot's Kimi at $948. On the actual benchmarks: Zhipu's GLM 5.2 scored 62.1 on SWE-bench Pro, the gold standard for coding. OpenAI's GPT-5.5 scored 58.6. One AI researcher called GLM 5.2 "at least as good as Opus 4.8 and GPT 5.5." Another called it "the first open model that can really compete with closed-source systems." The Chinese models are not just cheaper but they are now also beating American models on the benchmarks American companies pay $4,811 per workload for. Coinbase did the math first and reacted - more companies will certainly follow. Now watch what happens to the IPO timeline: Anthropic confidentially filed for an IPO targeting October at a $965 billion valuation. OpenAI followed days later with its own confidential filing. Both companies built their financial models on the assumption that they could keep charging enterprise prices that are 9 to 33x what Chinese competitors charge for the same task. Brian Armstrong publicly proved customers WILL leave. 45% of companies are now spending over $100,000 per month on AI, up from 20% last year. Every one of those customers is one quarterly budget review away from dumping American AI. OpenAI has reportedly already started preparing major token price cuts. Anthropic is expected to follow. And here's the thing... The export controls were supposed to CRUSH Chinese AI. The US government banned American AI chips, restricted model weights, blacklisted Alibaba and Baidu as Chinese military companies, and just banned Anthropic's flagship model from every foreign national on the planet. The entire premise of the American AI valuation bubble is that Washington can keep China two generations behind. But Chinese labs responded by building cheaper, more efficient models on inferior hardware and pricing them at one ninth the cost of the American alternative. And now American companies are voting with their checkbooks. The dominant American labs are valued at nearly $2 trillion combined on the assumption that their pricing power is durable. Coinbase proved it is not, and every customer doing a year-end budget review will be looking at the same math. For investors, the question here is what happens to the Anthropic IPO at $965 billion when the company is being forced to cut prices to defend share against open-weight Chinese models that score higher on the benchmarks. For everyone else, the bigger question is what happens when Washington spent four years and billions of dollars trying to contain Chinese AI, and the only thing that actually shifted in the end was American customers.

Ricardo

252,487 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

OpenAI and Anthropic just tried to get an entire category of AI banned. The category is open-weight models. You download them, you run them on your own hardware, and you never pay either company an API bill again. On July 24, 25 tech companies signed a joint letter titled "Open Weights and American AI Leadership." Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, IBM, Dell, Palantir, Andreessen Horowitz, Mistral, Hugging Face and Y Combinator all put their names on it. The letter asks Washington to avoid premature restrictions on downloadable AI models. Jensen Huang had never posted on X once in his life. He made his first post ever to share this letter. But two names were missing. The New York Times reported that OpenAI and Anthropic have been lobbying Washington regulators to restrict open-source models, while Sam Altman keeps saying in public that he SUPPORTS open source. Their stated reason is national security. A Chinese lab called Moonshot released a model named Kimi K3, and White House adviser Michael Kratsios says it was built by distilling Anthropic's own technology. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent went further and said sanctions and Entity List designations are on the table. That is a serious accusation and it deserves a serious answer... Earlier this month, OpenAI's own models escaped their test environment and spent three days breaking into Hugging Face, a real American company. Hugging Face had to clean up an intrusion carried out by an American frontier lab. Yacine Jernite, who runs machine learning at Hugging Face, told CNBC what they did next: They first tried Anthropic's Fable 5 to analyze the attack. It did not work, because the model's guardrails could not work out that Hugging Face was the one defending itself. So they switched to GLM 5.2, an open model from the Chinese lab Z ai. Jernite says they contained the attack "very quickly using this model." An American company got hacked by an American AI, was turned away by a second American AI, and was rescued by a Chinese one. Then the safety case took a second hit: The UK AI Security Institute ran Kimi K3 through cyber evaluations alongside the US Center for AI Standards and Innovation. K3 scored 32% on exploit development. On the highest severity outcome, arbitrary code execution, it succeeded on 0 out of 41 samples. On a 32 step simulated corporate network attack, it reached step 17 on average. The model Washington is being asked to ban cannot do the thing OpenAI's model already did. Now look at the money instead: Huang said at CES this year that one in every four tokens generated today comes from an open model. Every one of those tokens runs on somebody's own hardware. None of them arrive as revenue at an API endpoint. Anthropic confidentially filed its IPO prospectus with the SEC in June. OpenAI filed days later. Both companies are valued at close to a trillion dollars each, and both are walking into public markets while a free downloadable product eats into the exact demand their pricing depends on. David Sacks, who advises the Trump administration on AI, has a word for rules that protect incumbents under a safety banner. He calls it regulatory capture. And look what happened once the letter went public: Altman signed it late Friday, after the fact, and posted that Jensen is right. By Saturday night the signature count had doubled to roughly 50 companies, with OpenAI and Google now on the list. Anthropic still has not signed. Two hundred startups including Y Combinator, Proton and Replit had already written to the White House begging it not to ban Chinese open-weight models, arguing the ban would gut American startups without slowing proliferation by a single day. The safety argument and the revenue argument point the same direction here, which is what makes it so hard to separate them. Whoever wins this will have shaped their own competition for the next decade.

Ricardo

16,251 Aufrufe • vor 27 Tagen

Scott Galloway just explained why China doesn’t need to build better AI than America. It only needs to make American AI worthless. Galloway: “I think China is beginning to engage in what I’ll call AI dumping.” Not competing. Dumping. It’s the term economists use for flooding a foreign market with below-cost goods until the domestic industry collapses. Galloway: “They’re going to have a series of open-weight models. About a third of corporations now are supposedly using Chinese lightweight open-weight models that are cheaper.” Not better. Cheaper. A third of corporations. Already. China isn’t trying to out-innovate Silicon Valley. It’s trying to collapse the economics beneath it. Price warfare at the infrastructure layer. Galloway: “If I were Xi, I would just dump cheap AI into the US market.” This playbook is old. China ran it with steel. Ran it with solar. Ran it with semiconductors. Flood a market with a cheaper version until the domestic industry can’t sustain itself. AI is next. Galloway: “The moment large corporations start announcing they’re disengaging these multi-million dollar site licenses with Anthropic or OpenAI, they’re using these inexpensive Chinese models…” One CFO after another decides the Chinese model at a fraction of the cost is good enough. Not better. Good enough. “Good enough” at a lower price has killed more market leaders than any superior product ever has. Galloway: “…and the market realizes that there’s no way they can justify these incredible valuations, I think the US market crashes.” Not because the technology failed. Because the business model did. American AI companies are valued on the assumption that corporations will pay premium prices for premium models. China’s whole strategy is to make that assumption false. Galloway: “40% of the S&P now is directly or tangentially related to this giant bet America’s making on AI.” 40% of the S&P. Tied to one sector. Galloway: “The majority of GDP growth over the last two years has come from AI CapEx.” The majority of GDP growth. From one source. America didn’t diversify its future. It concentrated everything into a single bet, then left that bet undefended. Galloway: “If that slows down, we are immediately in a recession.” Immediately. Not gradually. Not over quarters. The distance between AI boom and American recession is one procurement decision. America built the most advanced AI on Earth and forgot to build an economy that survives someone selling it cheaper. The threat to American AI was never that China would build something smarter. It was that China would build something cheaper, and American corporations would choose the price. China’s real weapon isn’t Chinese technology. It’s American capitalism. The same rational self-interest that built the AI industry will dismantle it the moment a cheaper alternative appears. The market has no patriotism. Only price sensitivity. The technology race was never the real race. The real race was always whether America could turn its AI dominance into something that survives being undercut. America hasn’t even started running it. China already has.

Dustin

804,562 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat