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27,587 просмотров • 11 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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1:34:15

🎙️ Episode 10 of [trading places] featuring Rick Baker from Blackbird Ventures is out now. This week on trading places, hosts Dave McClure and Aman Verjee cover the latest tech news, including OpenAI's path to a trillion-dollar IPO, Big Tech's massive AI spending spree, and Tether's $500 billion valuation. Plus, we sit down with Rick Baker, Managing Partner at Blackbird Venture Capital, to discuss the incredible Canva story, secondary transactions, and building Australia's venture ecosystem from the ground up. 📰 THIS WEEK'S NEWS 🤖 OpenAI's IPO Plans -Potential $1 trillion IPO target -Microsoft ownership restructure (49% → 27%) -California AG blesses for-profit transition -Sam Altman hints at revenue north of $100B 💰 Big Tech AI Spending -Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta spending $125B/quarter on AI infrastructure -Meta raises $30B in corporate bonds -Oracle raises $38B for data center expansion -Power constraints emerging as key bottleneck 📈 Secondary Market Consolidation -Morgan Stanley acquires EquityZen -Goldman Sachs acquired Industry Ventures -Signals expansion of secondary market opportunities 🚀 IPO & Funding News -Navan's challenging IPO (down 20% on day one) -Mer raises $350M Series C at $10B valuation (5x step-up) -Securitize going public via SPAC at $1.2B valuation 🪙 Stablecoin Market - considering $500B valuation round -Coinbase 🛡️ reportedly pursuing $2B acquisition of BVNK -Stablecoin revenue growing 300M+ per quarter 🎙️ FEATURED GUEST: RICK BAKER, MANAGING PARTNER @ BLACKBIRD VENTURES The Canva Story -Rick shares the incredible journey of Blackbird's investment in Canva—from a $250K seed investment to a company now valued at $40B. -GP-Led Secondary Transactions -Rick walks through Blackbird's 2019 secondary sale: -Sold ~$120M (1/3 of Fund I) at 93% of NAV -Returned 3.5x to LPs while maintaining 9.5x exposure -Used Lazard to run a competitive process -StepStone + Australian super fund won the bid Managing Concentration Risk -Owned 15% of Canva at peak, now ~11% -Balance between maximizing returns and managing risk -LP perspectives range from "sell everything" to "hold forever" -Strategic sales during primary rounds to unlock growth capital Australian VC Ecosystem -Superannuation system: 12% of salary mandated into pension funds -$4T AUD pool of long-term capital -Reset after GFC: Blackbird, Square Peg, Airtree, Main Sequence -Circle of life: Atlassian/Canva alumni starting next wave 💎 VALUATION CORNER: TETHER @ $500 BILLION -Deep Dive on Tether -Aman analyzes whether the world's largest stablecoin issuer is worth a $500B valuation: -$13B+ in annual profit (2x BlackRock's profitability) -75% market share vs. Circle's 20% -36x P/E ratio vs. Circle at 240x -Medium transparency, aggressive reserve policy -Regulatory uncertainty in U.S. market 0:00 - Intro 01:12 -[ tech & vc news ] 01:21 - OpenAI Restructuring | $1T IPO? 08:24 - Big Tech Hyperscalers' Earnings and $125 Billion in Quarterly AI Spending 10:47 - Why This AI Boom is Different 15:58 - Morgan Stanley Acquires EquityZen 17:39 - Navan's Public Offering Performance 21:05 - Mercor Raises at a $10 Billion Valuation 22:23 - Securitize Going Public via SPAC ($1.25B) 24:37 - Tether's $500B Valuation Rumor 28:05 - [ interview: blackbird vc / rick baker ] 28:49 - Rick Baker's Background and Founding the MLC Venture Program 35:56 - The Canva Story 45:06 - The Australian Venture Capital Market 01:07:44 - How the Secondary Market Solves the Liquidity Problem 01:15:48 - [ valuation corner: tether] 01:13:30 - Tether's Aggressive vs. $CIRC’s Conservative Reserve Policy 01:16:32 - Calculating Tether's Valuation Based on P/E 01:24:00 - The Regulatory Uncertainty for Stablecoins 01:31:30 - Final Thoughts on Tether's $500B Valuation & Stablecoin Market DISCLAIMER: This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing discussed should be construed as investment advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with qualified professionals before making investment decisions.

trading places

11,519 просмотров • 10 месяцев назад

$AMD $MSFT Partnership is MASSIVE in 2026 🚀 If you were excited about my thread on $AMD $AMZN AWS long time partnership, you will be even more excited about what Microsoft gonna do with 2026 AMD EPYC "Venice". Historical Context: The relationship between AMD and Microsoft began in the early 2000s, with Microsoft initially focusing on Intel's x86 architecture for its Windows operating system and server products. However, AMD's entry into the server market with its Opteron processors in 2003 marked the beginning of a competitive dynamic that eventually led to collaboration. The partnership intensified with the launch of 3rd Generation EPYC "Milan" in 2021, powering Azure's N2D and C2D VM families. By 2025, Microsoft had integrated 5th Generation EPYC "Turin" into new compute-optimized instances, reflecting a strategic shift towards AMD for cost and performance benefits. This "Secret Weapon" breakthrough will mark another inflection point for AMD Microsoft Azure relationship, will probably be more aggressive than EPYC "Milan" moment in 2021. We can call it EPYC "Venice" moment 2026" 1. Technical performance of AMD EPYC "Venice" (2026) AMD's 6th Gen EPYC "Venice" processors, slated for 2026, introduce New Chiplet design breakthrough. a revolutionary chiplet interconnect fabric that redefines server scalability for AI. This isn't just faster silicon; it's a paradigm shift for Microsoft Azure , enabling hyper-efficient, rack-scale AI inference that slashes costs and latency while boosting throughput. ~Up to 256 Zen 6 cores, a 70% performance increase over "Turin," optimized for AI and HPC. ~Memory and Bandwidth: 1.6 TB/s per socket, doubling "Turin's" capability, with support for MR-DIMM/MCR-DIMM. ~Efficiency: 1,500-1,700W power draw, a 50% reduction, aligning with Microsoft's sustainability initiatives. ~Interconnect: PCIe 6.0 and a new chiplet fabric for rack-scale AI, reducing latency and enhancing scalability. 2. Why $MSFT will adopt $AMD YPYC Share to 50%+ in 2026. AMD EPYC Share: ~30-35% of Azure's x86 CPU-based business while Intel Xeon share is 65% Microsoft's Azure has been progressively integrating AMD EPYC, with "Venice" expected to expand this footprint: A. Dominance of AI Inference Workloads ~AI inference constitutes 80% of AI workloads in cloud environments, with latency-sensitive applications like chatbots, recommendation engines, and fraud detection requiring sub-second response times. ~"Venice's" 35x inference performance uplift directly addresses these requirements, outperforming Intel's offerings and custom Arm solutions in multi-threaded scenarios. B. Cost Efficiency and Operational Savings ~Azure's 2025 capex of $118B is under pressure to deliver returns. "Venice" can reduce operational expenses by $20-30B annually due to its power efficiency and performance gains, improving Azure's margins to 35-40%. ~The cost per inference operation is significantly lower with "Venice," estimated at 24-31% less than Intel-based alternatives, enhancing Azure's competitiveness against AWS and GCP. C. Scalability for Enterprise AI: ~"Venice" supports rack-scale AI deployments, enabling Azure to scale AI services for enterprise customers. For example, a 1,000-node cluster can process 700,000+ tokens per second, crucial for large-scale AI applications like personalized marketing and predictive analytics. ~This scalability is particularly important as Azure aims to capture the $100B+ AI opportunity by 2026, as stated by Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella. D. Reduction of Nvidia Dependency ~While Nvidia ( $NVDA) dominates AI accelerators, AMD's integrated EPYC-GPU solutions (MI450 with "Venice") offer a balanced approach, reducing Azure's reliance on Nvidia's high-cost GPUs. ~"Venice" enables hybrid inference models, where CPU-based inference handles 80% of workloads, and GPU acceleration is reserved for training and complex tasks, optimizing resource allocation. 3. Financial Implication: ~Revenue from Azure could reach $15-18B annually by 2026, part of a total revenue projection of $70-100B ~Profit margins could improve to 55-60%, boosting net income to $20-25B, supported by scale economies and reduced production costs. Intel could respond by giving more aggressive discounts, but this breakthrough has been a decade long of $AMD R&D, or rethinking chiplet design, a complete new approach. "Venice's" lead in AI inference and efficiency is challenging to match. Broader Industry: Other hyperscalers ( Amazon Web Services , GCP) and enterprises will follow Azure's lead, standardizing EPYC technology and pressuring Intel further. This could lead to a broader industry shift towards AMD, enhancing its ecosystem and bargaining power. Conclusion: The strategic adoption of AMD's 6th Generation EPYC "Venice" processors by Microsoft Azure in 2026 marks a pivotal moment in the evolution of cloud computing, particularly for AI inference capabilities. "Venice's" groundbreaking chiplet design, offering a 35x performance uplift for AI inference tasks, a 50% reduction in power consumption, and unparalleled scalability, positions Azure to leapfrog its competitors in the race for AI dominance. This technical superiority, combined with significant cost savings potentially $20-30B annually in operational expenses; aligns perfectly with Microsoft's ambitions to capture the $100B+ Revenue AI opportunity by 2026. The shift to 50% x86 market share for AMD within Azure is not merely a technical transition but a strategic realignment that redefines the competitive landscape. Historically, Microsoft's partnership with AMD has evolved from niche deployments to a core component of Azure's infrastructure, and "Venice" accelerates this trend. The 30-35% AMD EPYC share in 2025 is expected to double, driven by new VM families like C4D and H4D, which will dominate AI-intensive and HPC workloads. This migration is incentivized by "Venice's" efficiency gains, reducing dependency on Intel and Nvidia, and enhancing Azure's sustainability profile. Not Financial Advice!
7:18

$AMD $MSFT Partnership is MASSIVE in 2026 🚀 If you were excited about my thread on $AMD $AMZN AWS long time partnership, you will be even more excited about what Microsoft gonna do with 2026 AMD EPYC "Venice". Historical Context: The relationship between AMD and Microsoft began in the early 2000s, with Microsoft initially focusing on Intel's x86 architecture for its Windows operating system and server products. However, AMD's entry into the server market with its Opteron processors in 2003 marked the beginning of a competitive dynamic that eventually led to collaboration. The partnership intensified with the launch of 3rd Generation EPYC "Milan" in 2021, powering Azure's N2D and C2D VM families. By 2025, Microsoft had integrated 5th Generation EPYC "Turin" into new compute-optimized instances, reflecting a strategic shift towards AMD for cost and performance benefits. This "Secret Weapon" breakthrough will mark another inflection point for AMD Microsoft Azure relationship, will probably be more aggressive than EPYC "Milan" moment in 2021. We can call it EPYC "Venice" moment 2026" 1. Technical performance of AMD EPYC "Venice" (2026) AMD's 6th Gen EPYC "Venice" processors, slated for 2026, introduce New Chiplet design breakthrough. a revolutionary chiplet interconnect fabric that redefines server scalability for AI. This isn't just faster silicon; it's a paradigm shift for Microsoft Azure , enabling hyper-efficient, rack-scale AI inference that slashes costs and latency while boosting throughput. ~Up to 256 Zen 6 cores, a 70% performance increase over "Turin," optimized for AI and HPC. ~Memory and Bandwidth: 1.6 TB/s per socket, doubling "Turin's" capability, with support for MR-DIMM/MCR-DIMM. ~Efficiency: 1,500-1,700W power draw, a 50% reduction, aligning with Microsoft's sustainability initiatives. ~Interconnect: PCIe 6.0 and a new chiplet fabric for rack-scale AI, reducing latency and enhancing scalability. 2. Why $MSFT will adopt $AMD YPYC Share to 50%+ in 2026. AMD EPYC Share: ~30-35% of Azure's x86 CPU-based business while Intel Xeon share is 65% Microsoft's Azure has been progressively integrating AMD EPYC, with "Venice" expected to expand this footprint: A. Dominance of AI Inference Workloads ~AI inference constitutes 80% of AI workloads in cloud environments, with latency-sensitive applications like chatbots, recommendation engines, and fraud detection requiring sub-second response times. ~"Venice's" 35x inference performance uplift directly addresses these requirements, outperforming Intel's offerings and custom Arm solutions in multi-threaded scenarios. B. Cost Efficiency and Operational Savings ~Azure's 2025 capex of $118B is under pressure to deliver returns. "Venice" can reduce operational expenses by $20-30B annually due to its power efficiency and performance gains, improving Azure's margins to 35-40%. ~The cost per inference operation is significantly lower with "Venice," estimated at 24-31% less than Intel-based alternatives, enhancing Azure's competitiveness against AWS and GCP. C. Scalability for Enterprise AI: ~"Venice" supports rack-scale AI deployments, enabling Azure to scale AI services for enterprise customers. For example, a 1,000-node cluster can process 700,000+ tokens per second, crucial for large-scale AI applications like personalized marketing and predictive analytics. ~This scalability is particularly important as Azure aims to capture the $100B+ AI opportunity by 2026, as stated by Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella. D. Reduction of Nvidia Dependency ~While Nvidia ( $NVDA) dominates AI accelerators, AMD's integrated EPYC-GPU solutions (MI450 with "Venice") offer a balanced approach, reducing Azure's reliance on Nvidia's high-cost GPUs. ~"Venice" enables hybrid inference models, where CPU-based inference handles 80% of workloads, and GPU acceleration is reserved for training and complex tasks, optimizing resource allocation. 3. Financial Implication: ~Revenue from Azure could reach $15-18B annually by 2026, part of a total revenue projection of $70-100B ~Profit margins could improve to 55-60%, boosting net income to $20-25B, supported by scale economies and reduced production costs. Intel could respond by giving more aggressive discounts, but this breakthrough has been a decade long of $AMD R&D, or rethinking chiplet design, a complete new approach. "Venice's" lead in AI inference and efficiency is challenging to match. Broader Industry: Other hyperscalers ( Amazon Web Services , GCP) and enterprises will follow Azure's lead, standardizing EPYC technology and pressuring Intel further. This could lead to a broader industry shift towards AMD, enhancing its ecosystem and bargaining power. Conclusion: The strategic adoption of AMD's 6th Generation EPYC "Venice" processors by Microsoft Azure in 2026 marks a pivotal moment in the evolution of cloud computing, particularly for AI inference capabilities. "Venice's" groundbreaking chiplet design, offering a 35x performance uplift for AI inference tasks, a 50% reduction in power consumption, and unparalleled scalability, positions Azure to leapfrog its competitors in the race for AI dominance. This technical superiority, combined with significant cost savings potentially $20-30B annually in operational expenses; aligns perfectly with Microsoft's ambitions to capture the $100B+ Revenue AI opportunity by 2026. The shift to 50% x86 market share for AMD within Azure is not merely a technical transition but a strategic realignment that redefines the competitive landscape. Historically, Microsoft's partnership with AMD has evolved from niche deployments to a core component of Azure's infrastructure, and "Venice" accelerates this trend. The 30-35% AMD EPYC share in 2025 is expected to double, driven by new VM families like C4D and H4D, which will dominate AI-intensive and HPC workloads. This migration is incentivized by "Venice's" efficiency gains, reducing dependency on Intel and Nvidia, and enhancing Azure's sustainability profile. Not Financial Advice!

Mike

141,018 просмотров • 10 месяцев назад