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AI token usage is up 10x in 7 months, compounding 40%/MONTH! There is NO BUBBLE when demand is STILL accelerating And this is just OpenRouter, it doesn't count the labs direct token usage and APIs But here's what's interesting about these numbers, the demand is coming from everywhere at...

28,123 görüntüleme • 4 gün önce •via X (Twitter)

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Why is the market selling off today? (Save this). The semi selloff right now is being driven by a mix of macro fear, profit taking and investors questioning how quickly all of this AI spending will actually pay off, not because demand for AI infrastructure suddenly disappeared. The market is basically trading this chain reaction, the ongoing US Iran escalation pushes oil higher, higher oil keeps inflation elevated, sticky inflation keeps Treasury yields high and that increases the risk of the Fed staying hawkish or even hiking again. That is a terrible setup for semis because many of these companies are valued on the massive earnings investors expect them to generate years from now. When yields rise, those future earnings become worth less today which is why the highest multiple AI and semiconductor names usually get hit first. (I don't think there will be a hike this year). This is also why everything is moving together right now. Nvidia, Micron, Nebius, SanDisk, Broadcom and Applied Optoelectronics are all completely different businesses, but institutions are not separating memory, networking, optics, compute and cloud infrastructure at the moment. They are reducing exposure to the entire AI trade, taking profits in the names that have already run the most and moving into a more defensive position potentially ahead of the Fed. There is also growing pressure around hyperscaler capex. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Google are still spending enormous amounts on GPUs, data centers, networking and power but the market is starting to ask when all of that spending will actually turn into revenue and free cash flow. Investors are no longer satisfied with hearing that AI capex is growing. They want proof that the returns are arriving fast enough to justify the valuations already priced into the entire AI ecosystem. That creates a weird situation where hyperscaler capex can continue rising while semiconductor stocks still fall. The market is not asking whether AI spending is growing anymore but rather asking whether it is growing fast enough to beat the expectations already baked into these stocks. Crowded positioning is another major factor. Semis and AI infrastructure stocks have been some of the biggest winners in the market so institutions are sitting on huge profits and many funds own the exact same names. When macro risk increases, investors usually sell the most liquid winners first. That does not mean demand for memory, optics or custom chips suddenly collapsed but rather means investors are locking in gains and reducing risk. Tariffs add another layer because even when they are not directly placed on chips, they can still raise the cost of servers, electrical equipment, cooling systems, construction materials and the overall data center buildout. That makes AI infrastructure more expensive while also adding another source of inflation. Then you have Jensen Huang’s letter to the White House this morning about open weight AI models, which I think is one of the most important long term developments here. Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Palantir and several other companies are pushing Washington not to place broad restrictions on open weight AI. OpenAI and Anthropic were notably absent because open models are much more of a threat to their business models. OpenAI and Anthropic benefit from a world where a few closed frontier labs control the best models and companies have to pay them through subscriptions and APIs. Open weight models weaken that advantage because businesses can download a model, customize it for their own use and run it on their own infrastructure or through a neocloud. That is bad for OpenAI and Anthropic because it puts pressure on pricing, margins and the idea that they will control the intelligence layer of the economy but it is very good for the AI ecosystem as a whole over the long run. But the question is what does this mean for all the OpenAI and Anthropic commitments? so that's adding to the fear as well. But with that being said open models make AI cheaper and more accessible. Instead of AI being controlled by a few giant labs, thousands of startups, universities, governments and regular businesses can deploy models themselves. That spreads AI adoption across the entire economy and creates a much larger infrastructure opportunity and that is exactly why Jensen cares. Nvidia does not need OpenAI or Anthropic to win. Nvidia just needs more people using AI. Whether the model comes from OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, Mistral, Kimi or some startup nobody has heard of yet, it still needs GPUs, memory, networking, data centers and electricity. So open weight AI could actually weaken the model companies while making the infrastructure layer much bigger. More open models mean more companies running inference. More inference means more GPUs. More GPUs mean more HBM, optical transceivers, switches, data centers and power. That is bullish for Nvidia Nebius, Micron, Broadcom , Marvell and Applied Optoelectronics over the long run. So my take is that the current semi selloff is being driven mostly by macro uncertainty, higher oil, rising yields, Fed fears, tariffs, crowded positioning and questions around the return on hyperscaler capex. The underlying AI infrastructure thesis has not suddenly broken. We are not broadly seeing hyperscalers cancel GPU orders, slash capex, abandon data center projects or report that AI demand has collapsed. What has changed is the valuation investors are willing to pay while the macro environment remains unstable. The market is lowering the price it is willing to pay for semiconductor growth but is not necessarily saying that growth is gone. And while Jensen’s open weight push may be bad for OpenAI and Anthropic, it could be one of the best things possible for the AI ecosystem over the long run because it creates more models, more developers, more competition and ultimately much more demand for the infrastructure underneath all of it. Nothing about the AI thesis has changed for me, so I will be going shopping and taking advantage of this sale while the market is selling everything together. I am an analyst at Milk Road Pro, and if you want to see exactly what I am buying, you can join for just $1 using the link below.

Melvin

179,939 görüntüleme • 22 gün önce

I genuinely think the Terafab is going to end up being one of the biggest moves ever made in human history to secure the future of AI... and I think most people still don’t fully see what Elon is trying to do here. The signs are clear to me. This is Tesla, xAI, and SpaceX essentially hinting to us that they are not going to wait on the world to give them the compute the team needs. They are going to build it themselves at a scale no one has ever attempted. When you really break it down, it gets a bit nutty. This is going to be a fully vertically integrated chip factory that will be producing over 1 terawatt of AI compute per year. This is NEXT LEVEL BIG. Today, AI is limited by chips. You can have the best models, the best engineers, the best everything... but if you don’t have enough compute, you will eventually hit a wall. Elon told us, the world can only supply a tiny fraction of the chips his companies will need. So this is the solution. Terafab puts everything under one roof like design, manufacturing, memory, packaging, testing, which means that they can build chips very fast.. like really fast. I'm talking about 100-200 billion custom AI chips per year at full capacity. Chips designed specifically for: • Tesla cars and Optimus robots • xAI models • Space-based compute You see, while other companies and CEOs are thinking Earth, Elon is planning for AI in space. Around ~80% of the compute is expected to go orbital, powered by solar energy bc Earth simply doesn’t have enough electricity. The U.S. grid is only about ~0.5 terawatts, while space has basically UNLIMITED energy if you can capture it. And this is the steps to get it: Starship launches → space compute → solar-powered AI → feeds back into everything to Earth. Bro... Elon and his companies are playing at a whole different level... And this is why I keep telling people that the Terafab is going to be the secret ingredient that will be the real unlock for everything: • Robotaxis at scale • Billions of Optimus robots • Massive AI models running 24/7 • Future off-world, other planet infrastructure Without these chips, none of this can happen... but with the Terafab, all of this becomes possible. That’s why Elon is calling it “the final missing piece.” I agree.

Teslaconomics

25,494 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

I'm proud to share that Glean has surpassed $300M ARR, just five months after crossing $200M and growing ~3x over the past 15 months. This is an exciting milestone for Glean, and it's a signal about where the enterprise AI market is heading. We’ve long believed the real challenge in enterprise AI is not access to models. It is grounding AI in how a company actually works: its people, knowledge, workflows, permissions, and systems. That’s even clearer now. The companies creating real value with AI are not just adopting better models. They are building systems that understand their business well enough to deliver reliable outcomes at scale. That is the real moat, and it is what we’ve been building at Glean: an unrivaled context layer for enterprise AI. That context has to work across the business, not just inside a single team or use case. We see that in how customers adopt Glean: more than 85% use it across five or more job functions. It also has to meet the security and governance demands of complex enterprises. We see that in who is choosing Glean: our Fortune 500 customer count nearly doubled year over year. And it has to make economic sense as usage grows. In our recent benchmark with Claude Cowork, Glean was preferred roughly 2.5x as often as off-the-shelf MCP tools and used 30% fewer tokens on average. Better context improves both quality and efficiency. I enjoyed talking with CNBC's Deirdre Bosa about this broader shift. In enterprise AI, the winners will not be defined by better models alone. They will be defined by who builds the strongest foundation for enterprise context. Thank you to our customers, partners, and team for helping us build the future of enterprise AI.

Arvind Jain

280,572 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

HTML Artifacts are a big part of how I work with agents now. Artifacts can be more than just static files. When combined with agents, they can take action or help you take action. This unlocks all kinds of interesting ways to work with agents. This is clearly the future. Check out this writing and scheduler artifact I built in a few minutes. It uses a bit of HTML and JS. All the data is in markdown (Obsidian vaults), so the agent can access and modify it at any time. No DB needed. No sophisticated functionalities. The agent decides all that for me based on the skills, context, and memory it has access to. The best part about this simple stack is that all the important information stays with me. This has allowed me to build a recursive self-improving system and automations that can better tap into coding agents like Codex or Claude Code. I could have paid or built an entire app for scheduling posts, and there are so many of them out there. But I don't need to. I've realized a simple artifact does the job. And the simplicity of it is actually an advantage. Very little maintenance for very high returns on personalization, time, and efficiency. The other benefit of this is that I can add features as I please. That level of personalization feels magical, and we should all be pursuing more of it. All of this just keeps compounding. Of course, this example is just about writing. But I have similar artifacts for research, design, experimentation, evaluation, and so much more. And no, I didn't actually publish the post example I shared in the clip. It was just for demonstration purposes. I actually spend more time than this when writing together with agents. Lastly, having built my own agent orchestrator tool has made me realize that simplifying the tool stack is a superpower. If you are curious about how all this works, I will do a live session next week:

elvis

18,374 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

✨ Grok Imagine Video is now live on Photo AI It's hard to explain how impressive this is because of the speed that xAI got itself from literally nothing to the top of the leaderboards Six months ago Grok's video model was a joke, it wasn't even close to any of the video models out there, it looked cartoony and wasn't there and nobody took it seriously Now it's here and it's instantly the #1 video model out there now, it shot above Kling (which I used before on Photo AI and usually my favorite) and above Runway Gen 4.5 which was just launched 6 days ago! Mmore importantly it's now above xAI's biggest competitors' models: Google's Veo 3 and OpenAI's Sora 2 Being the best video model doesn't mean it's flawless: video is incredibly hard and actually because it looks so realistic now when it does make a mistakes it's even funnier One thing I noticed is that it still has a hard time with is voice, it does it well for a majority of the video but then slips up and produces unintelligible blabbering (which is really funny to hear) in both English (video 1: "it's where I find my naim", what's a "naim"?), and tested it in Portuguese too (video 3 at the end is unintelligible Portuguese I believe) In many ways Grok Imagine Video also reminds me of Sora, it has that weird but funny Sora conversation style But guys it's REALLY really really really close to getting perfect, we're so close to having full video productions being to be able done in AI, actually you already can if you just cut out the bad parts already Very exciting and I'm grateful I can experience this

@levelsio

195,023 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce