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Alright, this is super sick. Our MCP server has financial statements. Data covers 30,000+ stocks over 30 years. 1 • balance sheets 2 • income statements 3 • cash flow statements Things just got VERY interesting.

18,637 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce •via X (Twitter)

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THIS IS REALLY CONCERNING 🇺🇸 US government's cash balance has almost reached $1T, its highest level in 5 years. The TGA (Treasury General Account) balance is up $300 billion over the past month, reaching almost $1 trillion. TGA is the US government's primary operating account, held at the Fed. When TGA balance rises, it drains liquidity from the system. When TGA balance falls, it pumps liquidity into the system. Right now, TGA balance is increasing at a rapid pace, which means liquidity is being taken out. Here's why this is bad: 1) Liquidity drain When TGA rises, bank reserves fall. This reduces the cash banks have available to lend or hold as buffers. When this gets extreme, it causes SOFR to spike, which creates stress in money markets. 2) Rising bond yields TGA is often funded by increasing T-bill supply. This pushes bond prices lower and yields higher, which is bad for the economy. 3) Downward pressure on assets When TGA rises quickly, SOFR spikes and bond yields surge. Both of them are bad for risk-on assets, especially crypto. In October 2025, the TGA balance almost reached $1T, and we all saw what happened to the crypto market after that. What could happen next? When liquidity gets drained, the crypto market feels it the earliest. Also, May has started, which has historically been bearish for the crypto market during mid-term election years. This doesn't mean BTC will drop immediately, but from here, the max pain is to the downside.

Crypto Rover

67,757 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

JUST IN: Bank of America just told its clients to take profits. About 70% of its bear-market signals are flashing, a level it typically reaches only near market tops. Weeks earlier, BofA's own fund manager survey showed the largest one-month jump into stocks ever recorded, with cash down to 3.9%, under the 4% line the bank treats as a sell signal. Read those together. Investors made their biggest dash into equities in the survey's history at almost the exact moment BofA's own indicators say the top is near. But the number that should actually stop you is buried in the note, and almost nobody is quoting it. The companies driving this entire rally, the AI hyperscalers, are on track to spend nearly 100% of their operating cash flow on capex by year-end. In 2023 that figure was 40%. Sit with that. Big tech used to throw off cash and hand it back through buybacks, which lifted the stocks. Now it is pouring almost every dollar it generates into chips and data centers. BofA notes buybacks have slowed and cash conversion has flat-lined. The engine of the rally is consuming the fuel that powered the stocks. It is the same $725 billion build that companies are now blaming for layoffs. The whole market is priced on one bet, and that bet has grown large enough to eat the cash that used to support the share prices. This is not a crash call. BofA's year-end target is 7,100, about 4% below today, and the median outcome after this cash signal since 2011 has been a 1% dip, not a collapse. The posts screaming sell everything are wrong. The real message is quieter. You are being paid less and less to stay, while the engine runs hotter and hotter.

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

17,235 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce