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$AMD $5 Trillion MC Is Inevitable Long Term👑 This thread will focus more on Inference! 2026 EPYC "Venice" $TSM 2nm to save Large GW Scale Inference by 40% more than Prior Turin gen. Context: EPYC Turin achieves ~$0.001 per million tokens for batch inference vs $0.02-$0.12/ million tokens as...

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$AMD is ready to break $1 Trillion MC| $TSM 2nm🧵 TLDR FY 2026(Excluding China AI Revenue) AI GPUs: $35-$50B EPYC Data Center: $15B-$17B Client Segment: $12-$13B Gaming: $6B Embedded: $4B-$5B Total Revenue $70-$100B Non-GAAP net income $18B-$25B Non-GAAP EPS $10.97-$15.40 Foward P/E 55x-70x= $603-$1,078 The semiconductor industry is at a pivotal juncture, with advanced process nodes like TSMC's 2nm technology becoming the battleground for leadership in artificial intelligence and high-performance computing (HPC). Amid this landscape, AMD stands poised to secure early production and higher allocation of its Venice (EPYC ) and MI450 (Instinct GPUs) on TSMC's 2nm process. This strategic advantage is not merely a product of timing but a culmination of a robust partnership, market demand, technical superiority, and geopolitical dynamics. The AI and HPC markets are experiencing unprecedented growth, with inference workloads projected to constitute 80-90% of AI compute by 2030. AMD's EPYC processors and Instinct GPUs are uniquely positioned to capitalize on this trend, particularly given the demand from hyperscalers such as OpenAI , $META , $MSFT, $AMZN, and $ORCL. With $TSM starting 2nm Mass Production in Taiwan is ensuring AMD to meet FY2026 $70B to $100B revenue, driven by non-GAAP net income of $18B to $25B highlights the scale of this opportunity, starkly contrasting with analyst revenue consensus of $39-$45B. This discrepancy arises from analysts' failure to account for major orders, notably from OpenAI(Today SoftBank secured OpenAI a massive cash balance of $55-$62B).OpenAI is raising $100B, so this left $77B from UAE, Saudi, $MSFT, and others. $AMD is on track to receive higher allocation of EPYC Venice and Mi450 in 2026. AMD's acquisition of Xilinx has significantly strengthened its position in AI inference, particularly through adaptive computing technologies like FPGA-based AI Engines. The upcoming Zen 6 "Venice" generation (on TSMC 2nm, launching with MI450 in 2026) promises ~1.7× performance uplift, enhanced vector/AI capabilities, greater thread density, and open firmware innovations positioning EPYC to maintain its inference leadership while powering massive hybrid AI superclusters. TSMC's Fab 22 in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, is now the epicenter of 2nm mass production, a earlier strategic move to meet soaring demand from $AMD and $AAPL. Early production slots are typically reserved for customers with the highest revenue potential and strategic importance. AMD's early tape-out of Venice and the MI450's role as the first AMD GPU on 2nm place it at the forefront of this allocation. The 2nm process offers 10-15% higher performance or 25-30% lower power use compared to 3nm, a critical advantage for AI and HPC applications(TSMC claimed) Moreover, TSMC's recent 20% yield improvement in Versal production, as mentioned in related discussions, indicates efficient scaling. Higher yields translate to more chips produced per wafer, reducing costs and increasing allocation for key customers like AMD. This efficiency is particularly important given the aggressive timelines of customers like OpenAI, who require rapid scaling to meet their computational needs. The reopening of the China market adds another layer of demand pressure. Vendors and hyperscalers are begging for allocation of AMD's MI308X, MI300X, and MI355X, and the 2nm capacity will be critical to meet this need. TSMC's early production of 2nm ensures AMD can capitalize on this opportunity, securing higher allocation to fulfill these orders. Dr. Lisa Su's emphasis on disciplined supply chain planning for multiple gigawatt-scale customers, such as OpenAI, demonstrates AMD's readiness to scale. TSMC's confidence in AMD's ability to absorb this capacity is evident in the early 2nm production allocation. This discipline is particularly important in a market where demand outstrips supply by 10-12x. TSMC's competitors, such as Samsung and Intel, are still in the early stages of their 2nm and equivalent processes. Samsung's 2nm GAA transistors and Intel's 18A process are not yet in mass production, giving TSMC and AMD a first-mover advantage. Nvidia's acquisition of Groq Inc. is a defensive move to diversify into inference, but it does not immediately address the 2nm gap. AMD EPYC Venice and future Gen are already ahead of lowest cost for Inference along with MI450 has TCO of $0.65 to $1.00 per million inference tokens, significantly lower than Nvidia's Rubik (H2 2026) at $0.70 to $1.20 and Broadcom's XPU (2027-2029) at $0.70 to $1.30. Additionally, the MI450's TDP is estimated at 1000-1800W, compared to Nvidia's 2300-3600W (Ultra), reducing operational costs and energy consumption(TSMC 2nm vs TSMC 3nm). The MI450 features 432GB of HBM4 memory and 19.6 TB/s bandwidth, surpassing Nvidia's Rubik (288GB HBM4, 16 TB/s) and Broadcom's XPU (192/256GB HBM4, 7 TB/s est). This enhanced memory and bandwidth capacity is essential for handling the complex, data-intensive workloads of large language models and other AI applications. AMD's full-stack vision, combining EPYC hosts with Instinct accelerators, offers the lowest total cost of ownership (TCO) and thermal design power (TDP). This synergy is unbeatable for both training and inference, further justifying TSMC's prioritization. The 2nm process amplifies these advantages, ensuring AMD can maintain its competitive edge over rivals like Nvidia, whose Rubin GPUs are still on N3P (a 3nm derivative). Today, TSMC just secured $AMD to join the top 10 largest companies in the world as it begins 2nm mass production in Taiwan. AMD and Apple are to receive highest allocation. The long-standing partnership with TSMC, massive demand from hyperscalers, technical advantages of 2nm, and disciplined supply chain planning all point to AMD's favored position. The 2nm process's early mass production at Fab 22, combined with AMD's revenue potential and competitive edge, justifies TSMC's prioritization. This allocation is critical for AMD to meet aggressive demand, capture market share, and solidify its position as a leader in AI and HPC, especially in the inference-dominated future. Dr. Lisa Su "We will multiple customers/hyperscalers at GW scale" Not Financial Advice!
2:38

$AMD is ready to break $1 Trillion MC| $TSM 2nm🧵 TLDR FY 2026(Excluding China AI Revenue) AI GPUs: $35-$50B EPYC Data Center: $15B-$17B Client Segment: $12-$13B Gaming: $6B Embedded: $4B-$5B Total Revenue $70-$100B Non-GAAP net income $18B-$25B Non-GAAP EPS $10.97-$15.40 Foward P/E 55x-70x= $603-$1,078 The semiconductor industry is at a pivotal juncture, with advanced process nodes like TSMC's 2nm technology becoming the battleground for leadership in artificial intelligence and high-performance computing (HPC). Amid this landscape, AMD stands poised to secure early production and higher allocation of its Venice (EPYC ) and MI450 (Instinct GPUs) on TSMC's 2nm process. This strategic advantage is not merely a product of timing but a culmination of a robust partnership, market demand, technical superiority, and geopolitical dynamics. The AI and HPC markets are experiencing unprecedented growth, with inference workloads projected to constitute 80-90% of AI compute by 2030. AMD's EPYC processors and Instinct GPUs are uniquely positioned to capitalize on this trend, particularly given the demand from hyperscalers such as OpenAI , $META , $MSFT, $AMZN, and $ORCL. With $TSM starting 2nm Mass Production in Taiwan is ensuring AMD to meet FY2026 $70B to $100B revenue, driven by non-GAAP net income of $18B to $25B highlights the scale of this opportunity, starkly contrasting with analyst revenue consensus of $39-$45B. This discrepancy arises from analysts' failure to account for major orders, notably from OpenAI(Today SoftBank secured OpenAI a massive cash balance of $55-$62B).OpenAI is raising $100B, so this left $77B from UAE, Saudi, $MSFT, and others. $AMD is on track to receive higher allocation of EPYC Venice and Mi450 in 2026. AMD's acquisition of Xilinx has significantly strengthened its position in AI inference, particularly through adaptive computing technologies like FPGA-based AI Engines. The upcoming Zen 6 "Venice" generation (on TSMC 2nm, launching with MI450 in 2026) promises ~1.7× performance uplift, enhanced vector/AI capabilities, greater thread density, and open firmware innovations positioning EPYC to maintain its inference leadership while powering massive hybrid AI superclusters. TSMC's Fab 22 in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, is now the epicenter of 2nm mass production, a earlier strategic move to meet soaring demand from $AMD and $AAPL. Early production slots are typically reserved for customers with the highest revenue potential and strategic importance. AMD's early tape-out of Venice and the MI450's role as the first AMD GPU on 2nm place it at the forefront of this allocation. The 2nm process offers 10-15% higher performance or 25-30% lower power use compared to 3nm, a critical advantage for AI and HPC applications(TSMC claimed) Moreover, TSMC's recent 20% yield improvement in Versal production, as mentioned in related discussions, indicates efficient scaling. Higher yields translate to more chips produced per wafer, reducing costs and increasing allocation for key customers like AMD. This efficiency is particularly important given the aggressive timelines of customers like OpenAI, who require rapid scaling to meet their computational needs. The reopening of the China market adds another layer of demand pressure. Vendors and hyperscalers are begging for allocation of AMD's MI308X, MI300X, and MI355X, and the 2nm capacity will be critical to meet this need. TSMC's early production of 2nm ensures AMD can capitalize on this opportunity, securing higher allocation to fulfill these orders. Dr. Lisa Su's emphasis on disciplined supply chain planning for multiple gigawatt-scale customers, such as OpenAI, demonstrates AMD's readiness to scale. TSMC's confidence in AMD's ability to absorb this capacity is evident in the early 2nm production allocation. This discipline is particularly important in a market where demand outstrips supply by 10-12x. TSMC's competitors, such as Samsung and Intel, are still in the early stages of their 2nm and equivalent processes. Samsung's 2nm GAA transistors and Intel's 18A process are not yet in mass production, giving TSMC and AMD a first-mover advantage. Nvidia's acquisition of Groq Inc. is a defensive move to diversify into inference, but it does not immediately address the 2nm gap. AMD EPYC Venice and future Gen are already ahead of lowest cost for Inference along with MI450 has TCO of $0.65 to $1.00 per million inference tokens, significantly lower than Nvidia's Rubik (H2 2026) at $0.70 to $1.20 and Broadcom's XPU (2027-2029) at $0.70 to $1.30. Additionally, the MI450's TDP is estimated at 1000-1800W, compared to Nvidia's 2300-3600W (Ultra), reducing operational costs and energy consumption(TSMC 2nm vs TSMC 3nm). The MI450 features 432GB of HBM4 memory and 19.6 TB/s bandwidth, surpassing Nvidia's Rubik (288GB HBM4, 16 TB/s) and Broadcom's XPU (192/256GB HBM4, 7 TB/s est). This enhanced memory and bandwidth capacity is essential for handling the complex, data-intensive workloads of large language models and other AI applications. AMD's full-stack vision, combining EPYC hosts with Instinct accelerators, offers the lowest total cost of ownership (TCO) and thermal design power (TDP). This synergy is unbeatable for both training and inference, further justifying TSMC's prioritization. The 2nm process amplifies these advantages, ensuring AMD can maintain its competitive edge over rivals like Nvidia, whose Rubin GPUs are still on N3P (a 3nm derivative). Today, TSMC just secured $AMD to join the top 10 largest companies in the world as it begins 2nm mass production in Taiwan. AMD and Apple are to receive highest allocation. The long-standing partnership with TSMC, massive demand from hyperscalers, technical advantages of 2nm, and disciplined supply chain planning all point to AMD's favored position. The 2nm process's early mass production at Fab 22, combined with AMD's revenue potential and competitive edge, justifies TSMC's prioritization. This allocation is critical for AMD to meet aggressive demand, capture market share, and solidify its position as a leader in AI and HPC, especially in the inference-dominated future. Dr. Lisa Su "We will multiple customers/hyperscalers at GW scale" Not Financial Advice!

Mike

43,219 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

$META is betting on $AMD for AI inference. As AI models become more commoditized, total cost of ownership for token generation matters more than ever. $AMD GPUs are far more cost-efficient than $NVDA for inference. With 3.5B daily users ready to use its AI models, $META is going all-in on $AMD
3:17

$META is betting on $AMD for AI inference. As AI models become more commoditized, total cost of ownership for token generation matters more than ever. $AMD GPUs are far more cost-efficient than $NVDA for inference. With 3.5B daily users ready to use its AI models, $META is going all-in on $AMD

Daniel

20,558 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

$AMD $MSFT Partnership is MASSIVE in 2026 🚀 If you were excited about my thread on $AMD $AMZN AWS long time partnership, you will be even more excited about what Microsoft gonna do with 2026 AMD EPYC "Venice". Historical Context: The relationship between AMD and Microsoft began in the early 2000s, with Microsoft initially focusing on Intel's x86 architecture for its Windows operating system and server products. However, AMD's entry into the server market with its Opteron processors in 2003 marked the beginning of a competitive dynamic that eventually led to collaboration. The partnership intensified with the launch of 3rd Generation EPYC "Milan" in 2021, powering Azure's N2D and C2D VM families. By 2025, Microsoft had integrated 5th Generation EPYC "Turin" into new compute-optimized instances, reflecting a strategic shift towards AMD for cost and performance benefits. This "Secret Weapon" breakthrough will mark another inflection point for AMD Microsoft Azure relationship, will probably be more aggressive than EPYC "Milan" moment in 2021. We can call it EPYC "Venice" moment 2026" 1. Technical performance of AMD EPYC "Venice" (2026) AMD's 6th Gen EPYC "Venice" processors, slated for 2026, introduce New Chiplet design breakthrough. a revolutionary chiplet interconnect fabric that redefines server scalability for AI. This isn't just faster silicon; it's a paradigm shift for Microsoft Azure , enabling hyper-efficient, rack-scale AI inference that slashes costs and latency while boosting throughput. ~Up to 256 Zen 6 cores, a 70% performance increase over "Turin," optimized for AI and HPC. ~Memory and Bandwidth: 1.6 TB/s per socket, doubling "Turin's" capability, with support for MR-DIMM/MCR-DIMM. ~Efficiency: 1,500-1,700W power draw, a 50% reduction, aligning with Microsoft's sustainability initiatives. ~Interconnect: PCIe 6.0 and a new chiplet fabric for rack-scale AI, reducing latency and enhancing scalability. 2. Why $MSFT will adopt $AMD YPYC Share to 50%+ in 2026. AMD EPYC Share: ~30-35% of Azure's x86 CPU-based business while Intel Xeon share is 65% Microsoft's Azure has been progressively integrating AMD EPYC, with "Venice" expected to expand this footprint: A. Dominance of AI Inference Workloads ~AI inference constitutes 80% of AI workloads in cloud environments, with latency-sensitive applications like chatbots, recommendation engines, and fraud detection requiring sub-second response times. ~"Venice's" 35x inference performance uplift directly addresses these requirements, outperforming Intel's offerings and custom Arm solutions in multi-threaded scenarios. B. Cost Efficiency and Operational Savings ~Azure's 2025 capex of $118B is under pressure to deliver returns. "Venice" can reduce operational expenses by $20-30B annually due to its power efficiency and performance gains, improving Azure's margins to 35-40%. ~The cost per inference operation is significantly lower with "Venice," estimated at 24-31% less than Intel-based alternatives, enhancing Azure's competitiveness against AWS and GCP. C. Scalability for Enterprise AI: ~"Venice" supports rack-scale AI deployments, enabling Azure to scale AI services for enterprise customers. For example, a 1,000-node cluster can process 700,000+ tokens per second, crucial for large-scale AI applications like personalized marketing and predictive analytics. ~This scalability is particularly important as Azure aims to capture the $100B+ AI opportunity by 2026, as stated by Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella. D. Reduction of Nvidia Dependency ~While Nvidia ( $NVDA) dominates AI accelerators, AMD's integrated EPYC-GPU solutions (MI450 with "Venice") offer a balanced approach, reducing Azure's reliance on Nvidia's high-cost GPUs. ~"Venice" enables hybrid inference models, where CPU-based inference handles 80% of workloads, and GPU acceleration is reserved for training and complex tasks, optimizing resource allocation. 3. Financial Implication: ~Revenue from Azure could reach $15-18B annually by 2026, part of a total revenue projection of $70-100B ~Profit margins could improve to 55-60%, boosting net income to $20-25B, supported by scale economies and reduced production costs. Intel could respond by giving more aggressive discounts, but this breakthrough has been a decade long of $AMD R&D, or rethinking chiplet design, a complete new approach. "Venice's" lead in AI inference and efficiency is challenging to match. Broader Industry: Other hyperscalers ( Amazon Web Services , GCP) and enterprises will follow Azure's lead, standardizing EPYC technology and pressuring Intel further. This could lead to a broader industry shift towards AMD, enhancing its ecosystem and bargaining power. Conclusion: The strategic adoption of AMD's 6th Generation EPYC "Venice" processors by Microsoft Azure in 2026 marks a pivotal moment in the evolution of cloud computing, particularly for AI inference capabilities. "Venice's" groundbreaking chiplet design, offering a 35x performance uplift for AI inference tasks, a 50% reduction in power consumption, and unparalleled scalability, positions Azure to leapfrog its competitors in the race for AI dominance. This technical superiority, combined with significant cost savings potentially $20-30B annually in operational expenses; aligns perfectly with Microsoft's ambitions to capture the $100B+ Revenue AI opportunity by 2026. The shift to 50% x86 market share for AMD within Azure is not merely a technical transition but a strategic realignment that redefines the competitive landscape. Historically, Microsoft's partnership with AMD has evolved from niche deployments to a core component of Azure's infrastructure, and "Venice" accelerates this trend. The 30-35% AMD EPYC share in 2025 is expected to double, driven by new VM families like C4D and H4D, which will dominate AI-intensive and HPC workloads. This migration is incentivized by "Venice's" efficiency gains, reducing dependency on Intel and Nvidia, and enhancing Azure's sustainability profile. Not Financial Advice!
7:18

$AMD $MSFT Partnership is MASSIVE in 2026 🚀 If you were excited about my thread on $AMD $AMZN AWS long time partnership, you will be even more excited about what Microsoft gonna do with 2026 AMD EPYC "Venice". Historical Context: The relationship between AMD and Microsoft began in the early 2000s, with Microsoft initially focusing on Intel's x86 architecture for its Windows operating system and server products. However, AMD's entry into the server market with its Opteron processors in 2003 marked the beginning of a competitive dynamic that eventually led to collaboration. The partnership intensified with the launch of 3rd Generation EPYC "Milan" in 2021, powering Azure's N2D and C2D VM families. By 2025, Microsoft had integrated 5th Generation EPYC "Turin" into new compute-optimized instances, reflecting a strategic shift towards AMD for cost and performance benefits. This "Secret Weapon" breakthrough will mark another inflection point for AMD Microsoft Azure relationship, will probably be more aggressive than EPYC "Milan" moment in 2021. We can call it EPYC "Venice" moment 2026" 1. Technical performance of AMD EPYC "Venice" (2026) AMD's 6th Gen EPYC "Venice" processors, slated for 2026, introduce New Chiplet design breakthrough. a revolutionary chiplet interconnect fabric that redefines server scalability for AI. This isn't just faster silicon; it's a paradigm shift for Microsoft Azure , enabling hyper-efficient, rack-scale AI inference that slashes costs and latency while boosting throughput. ~Up to 256 Zen 6 cores, a 70% performance increase over "Turin," optimized for AI and HPC. ~Memory and Bandwidth: 1.6 TB/s per socket, doubling "Turin's" capability, with support for MR-DIMM/MCR-DIMM. ~Efficiency: 1,500-1,700W power draw, a 50% reduction, aligning with Microsoft's sustainability initiatives. ~Interconnect: PCIe 6.0 and a new chiplet fabric for rack-scale AI, reducing latency and enhancing scalability. 2. Why $MSFT will adopt $AMD YPYC Share to 50%+ in 2026. AMD EPYC Share: ~30-35% of Azure's x86 CPU-based business while Intel Xeon share is 65% Microsoft's Azure has been progressively integrating AMD EPYC, with "Venice" expected to expand this footprint: A. Dominance of AI Inference Workloads ~AI inference constitutes 80% of AI workloads in cloud environments, with latency-sensitive applications like chatbots, recommendation engines, and fraud detection requiring sub-second response times. ~"Venice's" 35x inference performance uplift directly addresses these requirements, outperforming Intel's offerings and custom Arm solutions in multi-threaded scenarios. B. Cost Efficiency and Operational Savings ~Azure's 2025 capex of $118B is under pressure to deliver returns. "Venice" can reduce operational expenses by $20-30B annually due to its power efficiency and performance gains, improving Azure's margins to 35-40%. ~The cost per inference operation is significantly lower with "Venice," estimated at 24-31% less than Intel-based alternatives, enhancing Azure's competitiveness against AWS and GCP. C. Scalability for Enterprise AI: ~"Venice" supports rack-scale AI deployments, enabling Azure to scale AI services for enterprise customers. For example, a 1,000-node cluster can process 700,000+ tokens per second, crucial for large-scale AI applications like personalized marketing and predictive analytics. ~This scalability is particularly important as Azure aims to capture the $100B+ AI opportunity by 2026, as stated by Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella. D. Reduction of Nvidia Dependency ~While Nvidia ( $NVDA) dominates AI accelerators, AMD's integrated EPYC-GPU solutions (MI450 with "Venice") offer a balanced approach, reducing Azure's reliance on Nvidia's high-cost GPUs. ~"Venice" enables hybrid inference models, where CPU-based inference handles 80% of workloads, and GPU acceleration is reserved for training and complex tasks, optimizing resource allocation. 3. Financial Implication: ~Revenue from Azure could reach $15-18B annually by 2026, part of a total revenue projection of $70-100B ~Profit margins could improve to 55-60%, boosting net income to $20-25B, supported by scale economies and reduced production costs. Intel could respond by giving more aggressive discounts, but this breakthrough has been a decade long of $AMD R&D, or rethinking chiplet design, a complete new approach. "Venice's" lead in AI inference and efficiency is challenging to match. Broader Industry: Other hyperscalers ( Amazon Web Services , GCP) and enterprises will follow Azure's lead, standardizing EPYC technology and pressuring Intel further. This could lead to a broader industry shift towards AMD, enhancing its ecosystem and bargaining power. Conclusion: The strategic adoption of AMD's 6th Generation EPYC "Venice" processors by Microsoft Azure in 2026 marks a pivotal moment in the evolution of cloud computing, particularly for AI inference capabilities. "Venice's" groundbreaking chiplet design, offering a 35x performance uplift for AI inference tasks, a 50% reduction in power consumption, and unparalleled scalability, positions Azure to leapfrog its competitors in the race for AI dominance. This technical superiority, combined with significant cost savings potentially $20-30B annually in operational expenses; aligns perfectly with Microsoft's ambitions to capture the $100B+ Revenue AI opportunity by 2026. The shift to 50% x86 market share for AMD within Azure is not merely a technical transition but a strategic realignment that redefines the competitive landscape. Historically, Microsoft's partnership with AMD has evolved from niche deployments to a core component of Azure's infrastructure, and "Venice" accelerates this trend. The 30-35% AMD EPYC share in 2025 is expected to double, driven by new VM families like C4D and H4D, which will dominate AI-intensive and HPC workloads. This migration is incentivized by "Venice's" efficiency gains, reducing dependency on Intel and Nvidia, and enhancing Azure's sustainability profile. Not Financial Advice!

Mike

141,018 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

$AMD $AMZN partnership will 🚀 in 2026 🔥 Amazon/AMD partnership is hidden among hot headlines from OpenAI $NVDA $ORCL... TLDR: Amazon refused to bid up the overpriced $NVDA chips among other hyperscalers, and decided to work closely with $AMD. Amazon is expected to spend up to $10-$20B a year on 2026 EPYC breakthrough Gen and Future Gen. Dr. Su confirmed "we have plenty for other large customers". For its 2026 EPYC "Venice" processors, AMD is using a multi-node manufacturing strategy: the CPU core complex dies (CCDs) are built on TSMC's 2 nm-class node (N2), while the I/O die (IOD) uses the N3P (3 nm) process. Context: Andy Jassy Amazon Web Services has been working with AMD on EPYC processors since November 2018. With this "secret weapon" breakthrough(patented), this long time partnership has expanded to New breakthrough 2026 EPYC Gen. AMD's 6th Gen EPYC "Venice" processors, slated for 2026, introduce New Chiplet design breakthrough. a revolutionary chiplet interconnect fabric that redefines server scalability for AI. This isn't just faster silicon; it's a paradigm shift for AWS, enabling hyper-efficient, rack-scale AI inference that slashes costs and latency while boosting throughput. AMD to benefit AWS's $100B+ AI opportunity along with $ORCL $MSFT $GOOGL $META Saudi, UAE ,38+ countries and startups. In early October, Amazon/AWS announced the new EC2 M8a instances as their latest-generation, general-purpose compute instances now powered by AMD EPYC 9005 "Turin" processors. Amazon announced the M8a as having up to 30% higher performance and up to 19% better price performance over M7a. With my testing of both at 32 vCPUs, the new AMD EPYC Turin instance provided 1.59x the performance over the prior-generation EPYC Genoa instance! How will this impact AWS AI Inference? ~Cost Efficiency: Inference is 80%+ of AI workloads and latency-sensitive (e.g., chatbots need <1s responses). "Secret weapon" enables 35x better inference perf (per AMD's CDNA roadmap tie-in), cutting AWS's energy use by 50%+ in clusters. With $118B 2025 capex, this could save $20–$30B annually in OPEX, boosting margins to 35%-40%. ~Scalability for Agentic AI: Supports "Helios" rack-scale platforms (up to 128 GPUs + EPYC hosts), delivering 3.58x FP6 perf for distributed inference. AWS can run 700K+ more tokens/sec in 1,000-node clusters (via EPYC 9575F boosts), enabling real-time apps like personalized search or fraud detection at enterprise scale. ~Adoption Catalysts: Early partners like Oracle signal broad uptake; AWS's existing AMD instances G4ad with Radeon GPUs) pave the way. By 2026, EPYC could power 40%+ of AWS AI infra, outpacing Nvidia's GPU lock-in via open standards (ROCm 8 software). Lastly, Amazon’s trajectory toward a $320 stock price is not a speculative leap but a grounded projection rooted in its unmatched fundamentals and strategic AI leadership. With Amazon Web Services poised to surpass $100 billion in annual revenue by 2026, driven by explosive AI inference demand, Amazon is redefining cloud computing’s future. The adoption of AMD’s 2026 EPYC processors with "Secret" architecture is a game-changer, slashing costs by up to 50% and boosting inference throughput 3x, enabling AWS to dominate enterprise AI workloads with unmatched efficiency. This technological edge, combined with Amazon’s e-commerce dominance and high-margin advertising growth, supports a valuation rerating to 22x EV/EBITDA, and it is still a discount to historical highs. Trading at $222, $AMZN is undervalued for its 15–20% revenue CAGR and 25%+ EPS growth through 2030.
0:49

$AMD $AMZN partnership will 🚀 in 2026 🔥 Amazon/AMD partnership is hidden among hot headlines from OpenAI $NVDA $ORCL... TLDR: Amazon refused to bid up the overpriced $NVDA chips among other hyperscalers, and decided to work closely with $AMD. Amazon is expected to spend up to $10-$20B a year on 2026 EPYC breakthrough Gen and Future Gen. Dr. Su confirmed "we have plenty for other large customers". For its 2026 EPYC "Venice" processors, AMD is using a multi-node manufacturing strategy: the CPU core complex dies (CCDs) are built on TSMC's 2 nm-class node (N2), while the I/O die (IOD) uses the N3P (3 nm) process. Context: Andy Jassy Amazon Web Services has been working with AMD on EPYC processors since November 2018. With this "secret weapon" breakthrough(patented), this long time partnership has expanded to New breakthrough 2026 EPYC Gen. AMD's 6th Gen EPYC "Venice" processors, slated for 2026, introduce New Chiplet design breakthrough. a revolutionary chiplet interconnect fabric that redefines server scalability for AI. This isn't just faster silicon; it's a paradigm shift for AWS, enabling hyper-efficient, rack-scale AI inference that slashes costs and latency while boosting throughput. AMD to benefit AWS's $100B+ AI opportunity along with $ORCL $MSFT $GOOGL $META Saudi, UAE ,38+ countries and startups. In early October, Amazon/AWS announced the new EC2 M8a instances as their latest-generation, general-purpose compute instances now powered by AMD EPYC 9005 "Turin" processors. Amazon announced the M8a as having up to 30% higher performance and up to 19% better price performance over M7a. With my testing of both at 32 vCPUs, the new AMD EPYC Turin instance provided 1.59x the performance over the prior-generation EPYC Genoa instance! How will this impact AWS AI Inference? ~Cost Efficiency: Inference is 80%+ of AI workloads and latency-sensitive (e.g., chatbots need <1s responses). "Secret weapon" enables 35x better inference perf (per AMD's CDNA roadmap tie-in), cutting AWS's energy use by 50%+ in clusters. With $118B 2025 capex, this could save $20–$30B annually in OPEX, boosting margins to 35%-40%. ~Scalability for Agentic AI: Supports "Helios" rack-scale platforms (up to 128 GPUs + EPYC hosts), delivering 3.58x FP6 perf for distributed inference. AWS can run 700K+ more tokens/sec in 1,000-node clusters (via EPYC 9575F boosts), enabling real-time apps like personalized search or fraud detection at enterprise scale. ~Adoption Catalysts: Early partners like Oracle signal broad uptake; AWS's existing AMD instances G4ad with Radeon GPUs) pave the way. By 2026, EPYC could power 40%+ of AWS AI infra, outpacing Nvidia's GPU lock-in via open standards (ROCm 8 software). Lastly, Amazon’s trajectory toward a $320 stock price is not a speculative leap but a grounded projection rooted in its unmatched fundamentals and strategic AI leadership. With Amazon Web Services poised to surpass $100 billion in annual revenue by 2026, driven by explosive AI inference demand, Amazon is redefining cloud computing’s future. The adoption of AMD’s 2026 EPYC processors with "Secret" architecture is a game-changer, slashing costs by up to 50% and boosting inference throughput 3x, enabling AWS to dominate enterprise AI workloads with unmatched efficiency. This technological edge, combined with Amazon’s e-commerce dominance and high-margin advertising growth, supports a valuation rerating to 22x EV/EBITDA, and it is still a discount to historical highs. Trading at $222, $AMZN is undervalued for its 15–20% revenue CAGR and 25%+ EPS growth through 2030.

Mike

449,843 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

70% more compute performance, up to 256 high-performance Zen 6 cores, built on TSMC's 2nm process. Meet Venice, our next-generation EPYC processor. It's engineered for more performance, better efficiency, and outstanding TCO. The CPU's role in AI is vital, and Venice is ready. #AdvancingAI
0:47

70% more compute performance, up to 256 high-performance Zen 6 cores, built on TSMC's 2nm process. Meet Venice, our next-generation EPYC processor. It's engineered for more performance, better efficiency, and outstanding TCO. The CPU's role in AI is vital, and Venice is ready. #AdvancingAI

AMD

46,825 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

$AMD $620/share is too conservative for 2026 🧵 Some quick facts before I dive into this super long thread: $META allocated 42% GPUs to $AMD and 58% to $NVDA OpenAI allocated 6GW(38%) to $AMD and 10GW to $NVDA My $620 PT below by end of 2026 was only for 10-15% market share. I believe $AMD is going to have much much higher market share than I projected. The AI accelerator market is exploding, projected to reach $500 billion by 2028(is now heading $1Tril), driven by insatiable demand for training and inference compute in large language models (LLMs), recommendation systems, and autonomous systems. Nvidia ($NVDA) has long held a stranglehold, commanding over 90% market share through its CUDA ecosystem and superior rack-scale solutions. However, AMD is mounting a formidable challenge, leveraging cost advantages, open-source software momentum, and hyperscaler partnerships to erode Nvidia's moat. Recent deals—such as Meta's ($META) allocation of 42% of its GPU capacity to AMD and OpenAI's commitment to 6GW of AMD compute (versus 10GW for Nvidia)—signal a tipping point. At the forefront is AMD's Instinct MI450 series, a next-generation AI GPU slated for H2 2026 launch, which promises "no-excuses" leadership in training, inference, and distributed workloads. This analysis dissects how AMD will capture more market share and why hyperscalers like $Meta , xAI , Oracle , and others are poised to become voracious buyers of the MI450. AMD's AI GPU revenue has surged from negligible levels in 2022 to an estimated $4-5 billion in 2025, capturing ~6% of the data center GPU market. This growth stems from the Instinct MI300X, which offers 141GB of HBM3 memory and competitive FP8/FP16 performance at 20-30% lower cost than Nvidia's H100. Hyperscalers, facing NVIDIA 's overcharging, have turned to AMD for diversification. Meta, for instance, plans 600,000 H100-equivalent GPUs by end-2024, with ~42% (or 250,000+ units) sourced from AMD's MI300 series for inference tasks like image editing and AI assistants. Similarly, OpenAI's recent multi-year deal commits to 6GW of AMD compute—equivalent to ~300,000-400,000 MI450 GPUs—starting with 1GW in 2026, explicitly to counterbalance its 10GW Nvidia allocation. These aren't one-offs. Microsoft Azure, Amazon AWS, and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) have integrated MI300X for AI workloads, with Oracle deploying 30,000 MI355X units in zettascale clusters. xAI, Elon Musk Musk's AI venture, ran 30% of Grok-1's production traffic on MI300X GPUs and has confirmed ongoing purchases. Collectively, these partners represent over $400 billion in projected AI infrastructure spend through 2028, with AMD targeting up to 40% market share. For those that subscribed, I wrote a specific thread on how AMD "secret weapon" is going to change the game in 2026 with an improved designs on all its products, yes AMD has patent on it. Software is the linchpin. AMD's ROCm platform, once derided as "half-baked," now supports day-zero integration for Llama-4, DeepSeek V3, and GPT-OSS models—closing the CUDA gap. Benchmarks show MI355X (MI450 precursor) outperforming Nvidia's B200 in inference by 1.5-2x on memory-bound tasks, at 25-35% lower TCO. For training, MI450's rack-scale IF128 configuration (128 GPUs, 1.4 PB/s intra-rack bandwidth) rivals Nvidia's VR200 NVL144, enabling clusters like xAI's Colossus (scaling to 1M GPUs). My below thread projected Etimated conservative FY 25 revenue: $34-$36B Estimated conservative FY 26 revenue: $55B-$62B Below is why $AMD is revenue is going to be much higher after OpenAI deal. 1. OpenAI 1GW in 2026. With high demand for MI355X at $30,000k+ per unit, with MI450 is likely to be sold in the $45k-$55k. We can safely calcuate 1GW would require roughly 400,000 MI450 GPUs. or Roughly ~$20B revenue in 2026 alone from OpenAI. That would mean $AMD would hit $56B just from one partnership(OpenAI) in 2026 2. $META, the biggest spender on AI Infrastructure right now, Daddy Zuckerberg bought 250,000+ MI300, and is buying MI355X for recommendation engines and Llama training. It is very unlikely for Daddy Zuck to slow down AMD Chips, due to its Inference superiority to NVDA Chips. Most likely we will see at least 300,000-400,000 MI355X ordered from now toward end of H1 2025. And another 300,000-500,000 MI450 by H2 2025. Or ~$20B from just Meta in H2 alone, excluded H1. 3. xAI : Musk confirmed "AMD GPUs work very well" for Grok's small/medium models, with 30% of Grok-1 on MI300X. xAI's Colossus (200K+ GPUs, targeting 1M) and Oracle partnership (via OCI's MI355X cluster) position it for MI450 trials in H1 2026. With $6B funding and Grok integration into Oracle services, xAI could allocate 10-20% ($10B-$15B) to MI450 for distributed inference. We haven't heard the detail from Daddy Elon Musk yet, but most likely not going to be spending less than OpenAI or Sam Altman 4. Oracle ($ORCL): A multi-billion-dollar MI355X deal powers OCI's AI superclusters, with $500B+ remaining performance obligations. Larry Ellison's zettascale ambitions and xAI/OpenAI integrations make Oracle a MI450 anchor tenant—projected 50-100k units ($15B+ spend) for enterprise AI platforms. $ORCL is likely to spend more on the new "secret weapon" due to its capability in AI inference and cost advantage for $500B backlog. 5. Others ( Microsoft , Amazon , Saudi+other countries): Microsoft (Azure MI300X for training) and Amazon ($148B 15-year spend) test MI450 via Stargate ($500B with Oracle/SoftBank). Emerging buyers like G42 (5GW UAE campus), Crusoe, and Hot Aisle add 5-10GW demand. These potentially would add $15B-$30B in 2026 alone. We also need to factor in $TSM supply constraint( $NVDA is TSMC favorite), so $AMD market cap/growth is being tamed by TSMC. So what are you saying Mike, well $AMD 2026 revenue could hit $90-$100B by end of 2026 or nearly 185% growth YoYo. So what does that mean for valuation? I have no idea how Mr. Market gonna value AMD in 2026 with 3 digits growth. My Conservative $620 was my best projection until today with OpenAI partnership. I'm telling you as one of the biggest AMD bull, that I will leave it to "smart money" and other investors to do the price discovery while I'm chilling and writing DDs daily. Lastly, AMD's MI450 isn't hype—it's a calibrated strike at Nvidia's vulnerabilities, amplified by hyperscaler bets like Meta's 42% allocation and OpenAI's 6GW lifeline. By prioritizing inference efficiency, rack-scale innovation, and open ecosystems, AMD will siphon 10-15% share in 2026, scaling to 20%+ as TCO trumps CUDA loyalty. Meta, xAI, Oracle et al. aren't passive; they're active co-designers, betting billions on MI450 to fuel AGI pursuits without Nvidia's premium. For investors, this is AMD's inflection Per Dr. Lisa Su Not Financial Advice!
1:06

$AMD $620/share is too conservative for 2026 🧵 Some quick facts before I dive into this super long thread: $META allocated 42% GPUs to $AMD and 58% to $NVDA OpenAI allocated 6GW(38%) to $AMD and 10GW to $NVDA My $620 PT below by end of 2026 was only for 10-15% market share. I believe $AMD is going to have much much higher market share than I projected. The AI accelerator market is exploding, projected to reach $500 billion by 2028(is now heading $1Tril), driven by insatiable demand for training and inference compute in large language models (LLMs), recommendation systems, and autonomous systems. Nvidia ($NVDA) has long held a stranglehold, commanding over 90% market share through its CUDA ecosystem and superior rack-scale solutions. However, AMD is mounting a formidable challenge, leveraging cost advantages, open-source software momentum, and hyperscaler partnerships to erode Nvidia's moat. Recent deals—such as Meta's ($META) allocation of 42% of its GPU capacity to AMD and OpenAI's commitment to 6GW of AMD compute (versus 10GW for Nvidia)—signal a tipping point. At the forefront is AMD's Instinct MI450 series, a next-generation AI GPU slated for H2 2026 launch, which promises "no-excuses" leadership in training, inference, and distributed workloads. This analysis dissects how AMD will capture more market share and why hyperscalers like $Meta , xAI , Oracle , and others are poised to become voracious buyers of the MI450. AMD's AI GPU revenue has surged from negligible levels in 2022 to an estimated $4-5 billion in 2025, capturing ~6% of the data center GPU market. This growth stems from the Instinct MI300X, which offers 141GB of HBM3 memory and competitive FP8/FP16 performance at 20-30% lower cost than Nvidia's H100. Hyperscalers, facing NVIDIA 's overcharging, have turned to AMD for diversification. Meta, for instance, plans 600,000 H100-equivalent GPUs by end-2024, with ~42% (or 250,000+ units) sourced from AMD's MI300 series for inference tasks like image editing and AI assistants. Similarly, OpenAI's recent multi-year deal commits to 6GW of AMD compute—equivalent to ~300,000-400,000 MI450 GPUs—starting with 1GW in 2026, explicitly to counterbalance its 10GW Nvidia allocation. These aren't one-offs. Microsoft Azure, Amazon AWS, and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) have integrated MI300X for AI workloads, with Oracle deploying 30,000 MI355X units in zettascale clusters. xAI, Elon Musk Musk's AI venture, ran 30% of Grok-1's production traffic on MI300X GPUs and has confirmed ongoing purchases. Collectively, these partners represent over $400 billion in projected AI infrastructure spend through 2028, with AMD targeting up to 40% market share. For those that subscribed, I wrote a specific thread on how AMD "secret weapon" is going to change the game in 2026 with an improved designs on all its products, yes AMD has patent on it. Software is the linchpin. AMD's ROCm platform, once derided as "half-baked," now supports day-zero integration for Llama-4, DeepSeek V3, and GPT-OSS models—closing the CUDA gap. Benchmarks show MI355X (MI450 precursor) outperforming Nvidia's B200 in inference by 1.5-2x on memory-bound tasks, at 25-35% lower TCO. For training, MI450's rack-scale IF128 configuration (128 GPUs, 1.4 PB/s intra-rack bandwidth) rivals Nvidia's VR200 NVL144, enabling clusters like xAI's Colossus (scaling to 1M GPUs). My below thread projected Etimated conservative FY 25 revenue: $34-$36B Estimated conservative FY 26 revenue: $55B-$62B Below is why $AMD is revenue is going to be much higher after OpenAI deal. 1. OpenAI 1GW in 2026. With high demand for MI355X at $30,000k+ per unit, with MI450 is likely to be sold in the $45k-$55k. We can safely calcuate 1GW would require roughly 400,000 MI450 GPUs. or Roughly ~$20B revenue in 2026 alone from OpenAI. That would mean $AMD would hit $56B just from one partnership(OpenAI) in 2026 2. $META, the biggest spender on AI Infrastructure right now, Daddy Zuckerberg bought 250,000+ MI300, and is buying MI355X for recommendation engines and Llama training. It is very unlikely for Daddy Zuck to slow down AMD Chips, due to its Inference superiority to NVDA Chips. Most likely we will see at least 300,000-400,000 MI355X ordered from now toward end of H1 2025. And another 300,000-500,000 MI450 by H2 2025. Or ~$20B from just Meta in H2 alone, excluded H1. 3. xAI : Musk confirmed "AMD GPUs work very well" for Grok's small/medium models, with 30% of Grok-1 on MI300X. xAI's Colossus (200K+ GPUs, targeting 1M) and Oracle partnership (via OCI's MI355X cluster) position it for MI450 trials in H1 2026. With $6B funding and Grok integration into Oracle services, xAI could allocate 10-20% ($10B-$15B) to MI450 for distributed inference. We haven't heard the detail from Daddy Elon Musk yet, but most likely not going to be spending less than OpenAI or Sam Altman 4. Oracle ($ORCL): A multi-billion-dollar MI355X deal powers OCI's AI superclusters, with $500B+ remaining performance obligations. Larry Ellison's zettascale ambitions and xAI/OpenAI integrations make Oracle a MI450 anchor tenant—projected 50-100k units ($15B+ spend) for enterprise AI platforms. $ORCL is likely to spend more on the new "secret weapon" due to its capability in AI inference and cost advantage for $500B backlog. 5. Others ( Microsoft , Amazon , Saudi+other countries): Microsoft (Azure MI300X for training) and Amazon ($148B 15-year spend) test MI450 via Stargate ($500B with Oracle/SoftBank). Emerging buyers like G42 (5GW UAE campus), Crusoe, and Hot Aisle add 5-10GW demand. These potentially would add $15B-$30B in 2026 alone. We also need to factor in $TSM supply constraint( $NVDA is TSMC favorite), so $AMD market cap/growth is being tamed by TSMC. So what are you saying Mike, well $AMD 2026 revenue could hit $90-$100B by end of 2026 or nearly 185% growth YoYo. So what does that mean for valuation? I have no idea how Mr. Market gonna value AMD in 2026 with 3 digits growth. My Conservative $620 was my best projection until today with OpenAI partnership. I'm telling you as one of the biggest AMD bull, that I will leave it to "smart money" and other investors to do the price discovery while I'm chilling and writing DDs daily. Lastly, AMD's MI450 isn't hype—it's a calibrated strike at Nvidia's vulnerabilities, amplified by hyperscaler bets like Meta's 42% allocation and OpenAI's 6GW lifeline. By prioritizing inference efficiency, rack-scale innovation, and open ecosystems, AMD will siphon 10-15% share in 2026, scaling to 20%+ as TCO trumps CUDA loyalty. Meta, xAI, Oracle et al. aren't passive; they're active co-designers, betting billions on MI450 to fuel AGI pursuits without Nvidia's premium. For investors, this is AMD's inflection Per Dr. Lisa Su Not Financial Advice!

Mike

711,006 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

Groq founder Jonathan Ross explains why their architecture is better for inference than GPUs. Inference doesn't require as much compute power as training. What matters in inference is speed, cost, and energy consumption. $NVDA was going to lose market share as AI workloads shift to inference. They saw this and made a highly strategic move by striking a deal with Groq. $NVDA is already dominating training, and now it's also well-positioned to dominate inference.
1:45

Groq founder Jonathan Ross explains why their architecture is better for inference than GPUs. Inference doesn't require as much compute power as training. What matters in inference is speed, cost, and energy consumption. $NVDA was going to lose market share as AI workloads shift to inference. They saw this and made a highly strategic move by striking a deal with Groq. $NVDA is already dominating training, and now it's also well-positioned to dominate inference.

Oguz Erkan

97,186 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

$NVDA CEO: “Demand for inference will go up by a billion times.” $AMD will be one of the biggest winners as it has the upper hand in inference thanks to larger memory bandwith and capacity of its chips. Stock is still at 22x 2027 earnings. How can’t you be bullish on $AMD?
0:20

$NVDA CEO: “Demand for inference will go up by a billion times.” $AMD will be one of the biggest winners as it has the upper hand in inference thanks to larger memory bandwith and capacity of its chips. Stock is still at 22x 2027 earnings. How can’t you be bullish on $AMD?

Oguz Erkan

282,229 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

$AMD is easily a $1,200 stock IMO| CPUs TAM 🧵 Not Financial Advice! DYOR! In this thread, I want to discuss the actual TAM for CPUs data center for just 2026, where many are giving different ranges, where I don't agree with. I will explain in detail why I disagree with these research firms and financial analysts using Math. And this thread should not be treated as Financial Advice. I'm just explaining my research and thought process so we can have a discussion. In 2024/2025, I gave out $620 PT for FY2026 was too conservative for AMD potential. At the time, It was early and many were just laughing, that PT was unrealistic and the AI world is run on GPUs only. Today, most of these folks are laughing with me. That is ok, I dont offer financial advice, and I do not need everyone to agree with me. I respect other opinions. If you enjoy this kind of thread, slap the like/repost/bookmark. If you want to support my work further and gain more in-depth analysis, consider subscribe! In early 2026, hyperscalers, enterprises, and OEMs are scrambling as Intel and AMD server CPUs are largely sold out for the year, with prices jumping 10–20% and lead times stretching from weeks to months (or longer for certain SKUs). What was once a GPU dominated story has flipped: the shift to explosive Agentic AI with its multi-step reasoning loops, tool calling, multi-agent orchestration, real-time data movement, and reinforcement learning, is dramatically tightening CPU:GPU ratios from the old training-era 1:4–8 all the way to 1:1 to 5:1 or even CPU-heavy configurations. CEOs across NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and public companies have been sounding the alarm on CNBC, Bloomberg, and earnings calls. CPUs are “cool again,” and in many agentic deployments they are becoming the new bottleneck alongside (or even ahead of) GPUs and custom ASICs. In 2025, roughly 12-15m AI GPUs + AI ASICs GPUs shipped, and is expect to be 15-20m units by 2026, where it suggesting Training demand is not going away. The actual TAM is structural, multiplicative demand that has already forced AMD to double its long-term server CPU TAM forecast to >$120 billion by 2030 (>35% CAGR), with Dr. Lisa Su noting Q2 2026 server CPU sales expected to surge 70%+ year-over-year and demand “far exceeding expectations.” At the same time, AMD’s secured 30–40% share of TSMC’s initial 2nm capacity (behind only Apple’s >50%) positions it to ramp Zen 6-based EPYC Venice exactly when this agentic wave hits hardest but even that aggressive five-fab 2nm expansion (with plans scaling toward 11 total advanced facilities) cannot instantly close the gap in the near-term. Supply constraints on wafers, advanced packaging, and power are compounding the squeeze, just as hyperscalers forward-buy and lock in long-term deals. 1. The actual potential TAM Various sources and institutions are giving $50-$160-$200B CPUs TAM toward 2030, and i disagree, where supply is severely behind vs Demand by at least 2-3 years or even longer by some estimates. The actual TAM will probably be 15-20m for FY2026. The typical average selling price from low to high end is $5,000 to $15,000, but due to rising memory, and different inflationary pressures on Semi, it would be more logical to think between $7,000-17,000. A. CPU:GPU Ratio at 1:1 A basic calucation at mid range =12,000 x 15-20m CPUs= $180-$240B TAM B. CPU:GPU Ratio at 5:1 = $12,000 x 75m-100m CPUs= $900B-$1.2T TAM Of course TSMC cannot even supply 20% of this massive inflection TAM in 2026. But do we think of Demand for TAM or Supply for TAM? Hence we are seeing massive 2nm Ramp from TSMC for $AMD. IMO, conservatively, I would take down 15-20% on 1:1 or $135-$192B TAM for just 2026. Im not even talking about 2030. We are just months into this, it is impossible to estimate Cagr atm, but this is 1-5 agents running tasks, I wrote a thread on 24/7 autonomous agents thread, where companies could use 50-250 agents to run tasks for them 24/7. It would require a different structural CPU:GPU to bring down the cost of token as well as handling the Orchestration bottleneck. GPUs would be useless and sit idle waiting for CPU due to highly CPU-intensive nature. The cost per Million tokens must come down more rapidly for this 50-250 autonomous agents to work, otherwise the token cost would be too enormous. Helios Rack is estimated to bring inference cost down to $0.0003-$0.0005/M tokens with 18 EPYC Venices along with 72 MI455x and other chips+ Components. A heavier or CPUs dense rack would bring down inference cost further. EPYC Verano(2027 gen 7 AI-optimized) is expected to drive inference costs meaningfully lower than the Venice baseline likely to the $0.00002–$0.00025 per million tokens range (or even sub-$0.00015 in highly optimized agentic/batch workloads). Verano have higher core counts than Venice, LPDDR5X SOCAMM2 memory support, more AI optimized and Next-Gen rack density & efficiency. 2. $AMD secured at least 30-40% of TSMC 2nm capacity and Memory from Samsung through 2028-2030. 2 2nm fabs are entering ramping phase toward 60-65k wafers per months and 5 dedicated 2nm fabs entering mass production/ramp in 2026. Will link sub threads below if you are interest for full detail. Apple is reported to secure 50%+ 2nm capacity for Iphone 18 and Mac chips and AMD secured at least 30-40% capacity while $NVDA $AVGO $ARM $AMZN $GOOGL and others are on 3nm. This broader aggressive ramp from TSMC to target up to 11 fabs is to address $AMD massive growth ahead. Where $ARM is facing massive CPUs supply constraints as they have to compete with other Mega Cap players on 3nm allocation. And $INTC is also facing supply constraints for data center CPUs and PC per management with lead times extrended to longer than 12 weeks. Dr. Su is aiming for higher than 50%+ Market share, and I believe it is achievable in 2026 or 2027 as AMD has the strongest CPUs offerings. Dr. Su did not want to take advantage of the shortage and she said during the Q1 earning call, AMD is prioritizing Units shipped while guiding margin to be inching 60%. If Jensen were in charge, I'm sure margin would be 70-75% in this kind of severe CPUs shortage condition. But that is not how Dr. Su operates for more than a decade. She wants most market share. So we will see it in revenue growth, but as TSMC ramps faster and faster, AMD Operating and FCF margin will massively improve vs prior decade. A significantly higher margin profile than before. 3. How I came up with $1,200 withint 12-18 months? At $1,200/ share, that would be around $2 Trillion MC. I expect FY2027 revenue to be $124-$144B where data center revenue dominates overall revenue. AI GPUs: I will stick to the lowest end so show u that I'm conservative at $18B for each GW vs $NVDA Rubin is $30B+ (most likely Helios Rack in the $20B+ due to memory price rising). We know deals with OpenAI and Meta are around 12GW and additional multi-customers at multi-GW scale were hinted and will be revealed as we get to July 22-23 2026 Advancing AI event. For now I will conservatively add a bit more to this model. (3-6GW Helios Rack Range) EPYC Venice is reported to be in $15,000-$20,000. However large customers will likely to enjoy $10-$12k discount. I expect AMD to be able to ramp 7m EPYC Venice for entire 2026 and 3-4m of EPYC Verano(higher price than Venice). If we take an average selling price of $10,000 to be on the conservative side. Take down another 30% to be even more conservative on projection. I like to be conservative. That would be ~ 7m EPYC CPUs(Venice + Verano) for FY2027 or 583,000 units per month or 15,000 additional 2nm wafers per month which is completely reasonable for current TSMC Ramp, and I may be too conservative here. EPYC Verano and MI500 series will also be on 2nm. AI GPUs: 3GW x $18B= $54B EPYC CPUs: $10k x 7m CPUs= $70B = Data center revenue alone is $124B Other segments= probably in the $20-$25B FY 2027. FY2027 revenue = $124-$149B At 7m EPYC CPUs for entire 2027, that would be more than 50% market share when we comp it to availability from supply side, not from total Demand. It is possible that TSMC could significantly ramp even more capacity in 2027, so we will see. Metric Q1 2026 FY2027 Gross Margin 55-56% 60-62% Operating Margin 25-26% 32-35% Net Income Margin ~22% 26-30% FCF Margin 25% 28-30% At $124-$149B Revenue FY 2027 Net Income would be $32-$44B EPS would be $20-$27 (GAAP) Non-GAAP would be $25-$31 At $1,200 a share or $2T valuation that would be: 13.4-16x Price to Sales (P/S) 38-48 P/E At this kind of growth of AI SuperCycle, I think it is very reasonable valuation. If we use today at $406/share or $661B MC: 2027 P/S = 4.4x-5.3x 2027 P/E = 13x-16x Is AMD today expensive or cheap to you? Above is already a very conservative where I trimmed 20-30% of doable units. Meaning, there could be upside if TSMC is able to ramp meaningfully like they are planning. Conclusion: A $1,200 per share valuation IMO for AMD in FY2027 is not expensive at all; it is, in fact, conservative when viewed against the structural explosion in agentic AI demand we have mapped out. With server CPU TAM potentially scaling into the $100–$200B+ range in just CPU:GPU 1:1 Ratio for just 2026. AMD positioned to capture 50%+ share thanks to its 2nm TSMC allocation advantage and full-stack leadership, the company could realistically deliver $124–149B in total revenue and $25–$31+ non-GAAP EPS. At those levels, $1,200 implies a 2027 P/E = 13x-16x. Entirely reasonable for a company that will have become the clear Inference Queen (and in many workloads the preferred) AI infrastructure provider, with operating margins expanding above 30% and tens of billions in high-margin rack-scale AI revenue. Dr. Lisa Su was right presciently so about the Agentic AI inflection all the way back to her early 2022–2023 commentary on the coming shift from pure training to inference and orchestration-heavy workloads. While the broader market only fully woke up to this in 2026 when she doubled AMD’s long-term server CPU TAM forecast to >$120B by 2030 (with >35% CAGR), Dr. Su and her team have consistently positioned the company at the center of the CPU renaissance. The explosive demand we are seeing today, sold-out lines, rising ASPs, and hyperscalers forward-buying entire gigawatts of Helios-class systems is exactly the outcome she forecasted years ago. Not Financial Advice! DYOR!
13:03

$AMD is easily a $1,200 stock IMO| CPUs TAM 🧵 Not Financial Advice! DYOR! In this thread, I want to discuss the actual TAM for CPUs data center for just 2026, where many are giving different ranges, where I don't agree with. I will explain in detail why I disagree with these research firms and financial analysts using Math. And this thread should not be treated as Financial Advice. I'm just explaining my research and thought process so we can have a discussion. In 2024/2025, I gave out $620 PT for FY2026 was too conservative for AMD potential. At the time, It was early and many were just laughing, that PT was unrealistic and the AI world is run on GPUs only. Today, most of these folks are laughing with me. That is ok, I dont offer financial advice, and I do not need everyone to agree with me. I respect other opinions. If you enjoy this kind of thread, slap the like/repost/bookmark. If you want to support my work further and gain more in-depth analysis, consider subscribe! In early 2026, hyperscalers, enterprises, and OEMs are scrambling as Intel and AMD server CPUs are largely sold out for the year, with prices jumping 10–20% and lead times stretching from weeks to months (or longer for certain SKUs). What was once a GPU dominated story has flipped: the shift to explosive Agentic AI with its multi-step reasoning loops, tool calling, multi-agent orchestration, real-time data movement, and reinforcement learning, is dramatically tightening CPU:GPU ratios from the old training-era 1:4–8 all the way to 1:1 to 5:1 or even CPU-heavy configurations. CEOs across NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and public companies have been sounding the alarm on CNBC, Bloomberg, and earnings calls. CPUs are “cool again,” and in many agentic deployments they are becoming the new bottleneck alongside (or even ahead of) GPUs and custom ASICs. In 2025, roughly 12-15m AI GPUs + AI ASICs GPUs shipped, and is expect to be 15-20m units by 2026, where it suggesting Training demand is not going away. The actual TAM is structural, multiplicative demand that has already forced AMD to double its long-term server CPU TAM forecast to >$120 billion by 2030 (>35% CAGR), with Dr. Lisa Su noting Q2 2026 server CPU sales expected to surge 70%+ year-over-year and demand “far exceeding expectations.” At the same time, AMD’s secured 30–40% share of TSMC’s initial 2nm capacity (behind only Apple’s >50%) positions it to ramp Zen 6-based EPYC Venice exactly when this agentic wave hits hardest but even that aggressive five-fab 2nm expansion (with plans scaling toward 11 total advanced facilities) cannot instantly close the gap in the near-term. Supply constraints on wafers, advanced packaging, and power are compounding the squeeze, just as hyperscalers forward-buy and lock in long-term deals. 1. The actual potential TAM Various sources and institutions are giving $50-$160-$200B CPUs TAM toward 2030, and i disagree, where supply is severely behind vs Demand by at least 2-3 years or even longer by some estimates. The actual TAM will probably be 15-20m for FY2026. The typical average selling price from low to high end is $5,000 to $15,000, but due to rising memory, and different inflationary pressures on Semi, it would be more logical to think between $7,000-17,000. A. CPU:GPU Ratio at 1:1 A basic calucation at mid range =12,000 x 15-20m CPUs= $180-$240B TAM B. CPU:GPU Ratio at 5:1 = $12,000 x 75m-100m CPUs= $900B-$1.2T TAM Of course TSMC cannot even supply 20% of this massive inflection TAM in 2026. But do we think of Demand for TAM or Supply for TAM? Hence we are seeing massive 2nm Ramp from TSMC for $AMD. IMO, conservatively, I would take down 15-20% on 1:1 or $135-$192B TAM for just 2026. Im not even talking about 2030. We are just months into this, it is impossible to estimate Cagr atm, but this is 1-5 agents running tasks, I wrote a thread on 24/7 autonomous agents thread, where companies could use 50-250 agents to run tasks for them 24/7. It would require a different structural CPU:GPU to bring down the cost of token as well as handling the Orchestration bottleneck. GPUs would be useless and sit idle waiting for CPU due to highly CPU-intensive nature. The cost per Million tokens must come down more rapidly for this 50-250 autonomous agents to work, otherwise the token cost would be too enormous. Helios Rack is estimated to bring inference cost down to $0.0003-$0.0005/M tokens with 18 EPYC Venices along with 72 MI455x and other chips+ Components. A heavier or CPUs dense rack would bring down inference cost further. EPYC Verano(2027 gen 7 AI-optimized) is expected to drive inference costs meaningfully lower than the Venice baseline likely to the $0.00002–$0.00025 per million tokens range (or even sub-$0.00015 in highly optimized agentic/batch workloads). Verano have higher core counts than Venice, LPDDR5X SOCAMM2 memory support, more AI optimized and Next-Gen rack density & efficiency. 2. $AMD secured at least 30-40% of TSMC 2nm capacity and Memory from Samsung through 2028-2030. 2 2nm fabs are entering ramping phase toward 60-65k wafers per months and 5 dedicated 2nm fabs entering mass production/ramp in 2026. Will link sub threads below if you are interest for full detail. Apple is reported to secure 50%+ 2nm capacity for Iphone 18 and Mac chips and AMD secured at least 30-40% capacity while $NVDA $AVGO $ARM $AMZN $GOOGL and others are on 3nm. This broader aggressive ramp from TSMC to target up to 11 fabs is to address $AMD massive growth ahead. Where $ARM is facing massive CPUs supply constraints as they have to compete with other Mega Cap players on 3nm allocation. And $INTC is also facing supply constraints for data center CPUs and PC per management with lead times extrended to longer than 12 weeks. Dr. Su is aiming for higher than 50%+ Market share, and I believe it is achievable in 2026 or 2027 as AMD has the strongest CPUs offerings. Dr. Su did not want to take advantage of the shortage and she said during the Q1 earning call, AMD is prioritizing Units shipped while guiding margin to be inching 60%. If Jensen were in charge, I'm sure margin would be 70-75% in this kind of severe CPUs shortage condition. But that is not how Dr. Su operates for more than a decade. She wants most market share. So we will see it in revenue growth, but as TSMC ramps faster and faster, AMD Operating and FCF margin will massively improve vs prior decade. A significantly higher margin profile than before. 3. How I came up with $1,200 withint 12-18 months? At $1,200/ share, that would be around $2 Trillion MC. I expect FY2027 revenue to be $124-$144B where data center revenue dominates overall revenue. AI GPUs: I will stick to the lowest end so show u that I'm conservative at $18B for each GW vs $NVDA Rubin is $30B+ (most likely Helios Rack in the $20B+ due to memory price rising). We know deals with OpenAI and Meta are around 12GW and additional multi-customers at multi-GW scale were hinted and will be revealed as we get to July 22-23 2026 Advancing AI event. For now I will conservatively add a bit more to this model. (3-6GW Helios Rack Range) EPYC Venice is reported to be in $15,000-$20,000. However large customers will likely to enjoy $10-$12k discount. I expect AMD to be able to ramp 7m EPYC Venice for entire 2026 and 3-4m of EPYC Verano(higher price than Venice). If we take an average selling price of $10,000 to be on the conservative side. Take down another 30% to be even more conservative on projection. I like to be conservative. That would be ~ 7m EPYC CPUs(Venice + Verano) for FY2027 or 583,000 units per month or 15,000 additional 2nm wafers per month which is completely reasonable for current TSMC Ramp, and I may be too conservative here. EPYC Verano and MI500 series will also be on 2nm. AI GPUs: 3GW x $18B= $54B EPYC CPUs: $10k x 7m CPUs= $70B = Data center revenue alone is $124B Other segments= probably in the $20-$25B FY 2027. FY2027 revenue = $124-$149B At 7m EPYC CPUs for entire 2027, that would be more than 50% market share when we comp it to availability from supply side, not from total Demand. It is possible that TSMC could significantly ramp even more capacity in 2027, so we will see. Metric Q1 2026 FY2027 Gross Margin 55-56% 60-62% Operating Margin 25-26% 32-35% Net Income Margin ~22% 26-30% FCF Margin 25% 28-30% At $124-$149B Revenue FY 2027 Net Income would be $32-$44B EPS would be $20-$27 (GAAP) Non-GAAP would be $25-$31 At $1,200 a share or $2T valuation that would be: 13.4-16x Price to Sales (P/S) 38-48 P/E At this kind of growth of AI SuperCycle, I think it is very reasonable valuation. If we use today at $406/share or $661B MC: 2027 P/S = 4.4x-5.3x 2027 P/E = 13x-16x Is AMD today expensive or cheap to you? Above is already a very conservative where I trimmed 20-30% of doable units. Meaning, there could be upside if TSMC is able to ramp meaningfully like they are planning. Conclusion: A $1,200 per share valuation IMO for AMD in FY2027 is not expensive at all; it is, in fact, conservative when viewed against the structural explosion in agentic AI demand we have mapped out. With server CPU TAM potentially scaling into the $100–$200B+ range in just CPU:GPU 1:1 Ratio for just 2026. AMD positioned to capture 50%+ share thanks to its 2nm TSMC allocation advantage and full-stack leadership, the company could realistically deliver $124–149B in total revenue and $25–$31+ non-GAAP EPS. At those levels, $1,200 implies a 2027 P/E = 13x-16x. Entirely reasonable for a company that will have become the clear Inference Queen (and in many workloads the preferred) AI infrastructure provider, with operating margins expanding above 30% and tens of billions in high-margin rack-scale AI revenue. Dr. Lisa Su was right presciently so about the Agentic AI inflection all the way back to her early 2022–2023 commentary on the coming shift from pure training to inference and orchestration-heavy workloads. While the broader market only fully woke up to this in 2026 when she doubled AMD’s long-term server CPU TAM forecast to >$120B by 2030 (with >35% CAGR), Dr. Su and her team have consistently positioned the company at the center of the CPU renaissance. The explosive demand we are seeing today, sold-out lines, rising ASPs, and hyperscalers forward-buying entire gigawatts of Helios-class systems is exactly the outcome she forecasted years ago. Not Financial Advice! DYOR!

Mike

283,548 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

IN NEWS: Baseten raises a $150M series D round. Tuhin Srivastava (Founder & CEO, Baseten) on the future of inference: “I think the token price goes down and inference should get cheaper over time. And that really just means there is going to be more inference.” “Every time we lower prices or optimize models to make it cheaper, four months later customers are spending more anyway.” “Inference prices will go down, but if the world is run by AI in 10 years, there is going to be a lot of inference. It better be cheap.”
0:52

IN NEWS: Baseten raises a $150M series D round. Tuhin Srivastava (Founder & CEO, Baseten) on the future of inference: “I think the token price goes down and inference should get cheaper over time. And that really just means there is going to be more inference.” “Every time we lower prices or optimize models to make it cheaper, four months later customers are spending more anyway.” “Inference prices will go down, but if the world is run by AI in 10 years, there is going to be a lot of inference. It better be cheap.”

TBPN

17,057 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

$AMD $5 Trillion is Inevitable LT| Agentic AI🧵 Agentic AI is the new $5 Trillion TAM 🚨🚨🚨 This thead will do Comp with $INTC and how to quantify this massive Agentic AI demand spike, and forcing Jensen to rush a CPU design. Global Agentic AI Market size is estimated to be $3-$5Trillion TAM by 2030(McKinsey) Quantifying the demand from agentic AI for AMD involves assessing the broader market growth for agentic systems, their unique computational requirements (particularly for CPUs in orchestration and reasoning tasks), and AMD's positioning very well through products like EPYC processors and partnerships. AMD EPYC Venice is the most superior choice in 2026-2027 for most Agentic AI workloads Agentic AI refers to autonomous AI agents that perform multi-step tasks, involving sequential logic, tool integration, and decision-making workloads that heavily rely on CPUs for handling orchestration, memory management, and context switching, rather than just GPU-parallelized training or batch inference. Agentic AI is often cited as 40-100x more "hungry" than traditional AI due to its continuous, 24/7 operation and complex workflows. This stems from factors like chain-of-thought reasoning (multiple LLM calls per query), API/tool interactions, memory management, and orchestration loops, which can generate 10-100x more tokens and require real-time responsiveness. For example, a single agentic query might trigger 5-20 model inferences, making it 10-20x more compute-intensive than simple chatbots, and the always-on nature compounds this to 40-100x overall. Nvidia's CEO has highlighted this as driving "easily 100x more computation" for inference in agentic/reasoning setups. AMD's EPYC Venice (6th Gen EPYC, codenamed "Venice") and Intel's Xeon 7 Diamond Rapids represent the pinnacle of server CPU technology in 2026, both targeting high-performance data center workloads like AI inference, agentic AI orchestration, cloud computing, and HPC. Venice builds on AMD's Zen 6 architecture, emphasizing core density and efficiency, while Diamond Rapids leverages Intel's Panther Cove P-cores for balanced performance. Both chips adopt similar advancements like 16-channel DDR5 memory and PCIe Gen 6, but differ in core counts, process nodes, and overall design philosophy. Intel has faced acute supply constraints across its Xeon lineup, including legacy nodes (Intel 7/3) and the ramping 18A process for next-gen parts. Intel shortage is expected with lead times up to 6 months or longer. 1. AMD EPYC Venice vs Intel Xeon 7 Diamond Rapids Architecture AMD: Zen 6 chiplet design with 8 CCDs and dual IODs Intel: Panther Cove P-cores; multi-die architecture with 4 compute tiles Core/Thread Count AMD: Up to 256 cores / 512 threads (Zen 6c variant) Intel: Up to 192 cores / 192 threads Process Node AMD: TSMC N2 (2nm) Intel: Intel 18A (1.8nm-class); in-house fab Memory Support AMD: 16-channel DDR5; up to 1.6 TB/s bandwidth. Intel: 16-channel DDR5 ; up to 1.6 TB/s bandwidth I/O and Connectivity AMD: PCIe Gen 6 (up to 128 lanes); twice the CPU-to-GPU bandwidth Intel: PCIe Gen 6 (up to 128 lanes); LGA 9324 socket Power (TDP) AMD: Starting 400-500W, potentially lower due to efficiency gains from TSMC 2nm Intel: Starting 400-500W, as it targets competitive efficiency Performance Projections AMD: Up to 70% uplift vs. 5th Gen Turin (1.7x in multi-threaded/AI tasks) Intel: ~40% faster than Granite Rapids (Xeon 6, 128-core). Lags AMD in per-core perf and 40-50% behind Venice core-for-core comp Target Workloads AMD: AI inference/orchestration, HPC, cloud virtualization. Partnerships Intel: Hyperscale AI, general enterprise. Custom silicon Pricing: AMD: estimated $10k-$20k for top SKUs Intel: estimated $8-$18k Availability: AMD: Significant Ramp H2 2026 due to higher allocation from TSMC Intel: H1-H2 2026 delayed, but trying to catch up Overall: ~Venice's 256 cores provide a 33% edge over Diamond Rapids' 192, making it superior for massively parallel tasks like AI training/inference or virtualization ~TSMC's N2 vs. Intel 18A debates rage on which is "better," but AMD's mature chiplet approach yields better density ( 32 cores/CCD vs. Intel's 48/tile). Venice's redesign reduces latency, aiding agentic AI where CPUs handle orchestration ~ Early projections show Venice widening AMD's lead matching or exceeding Diamond Rapids' perf with fewer watts in multi-threaded benchmarks. Intel's no-SMT design (to prioritize AI) handicaps it vs. AMD's 512 threads, though Clearwater Forest (E-core) could compete in density-focused niches. ~Power & Cooling: Both push above 400-500W, demanding liquid cooling. ~AMD been taking market share now above 40%. AMD EPYC Venice emerges as the superior choice in 2026 for most server workloads. Its higher core/thread count (256/512 vs. 192/192), stronger per-core performance, and architecture optimized for AI-driven tasks (agentic orchestration with GPU integration) provide decisive advantages in throughput, scalability, and efficiency. Projections indicate Venice delivering 1.7x the performance of prior gens while widening the gap over Intel ( 40-70% leads in multi-threaded benchmarks). AMD's fabless model with TSMC ensures reliable scaling, and its ecosystem ( open ROCm) appeals to AI adopters. Intel's Diamond Rapids is competitive in single-threaded enterprise apps and custom hyperscale ( NVLink), with potential fab advantages for supply/security. However, without SMT and lower density, it falls short in core-for-core battles—exposing Intel to another generation of AMD dominance unless 18A yields surprise efficiency gains. For data centers prioritizing raw compute ( AI, HPC), Venice wins; for Intel-centric ecosystems or specialized I/O, Diamond Rapids holds ground. Real benchmarks post-launch will confirm, but logic points to AMD pulling ahead. 2. Market size , Potential Revenue and Supply Global Agentic AI market size is projected to be $3-$5 Trillion by 2030 according to McKinsey, where consensus points to 40-50% CAGR driven by small to large enterprise demand. I also wrote a full thread on how and why Agentic AI is so explosive that AMD will blow all anlaysts estimate for subscribers. Link below if you are interested. AMD's data center segment hit a record $5.4B in Q4 2025 (up 39% YoY), with EPYC shipments ramping due to agentic demand. With 2GW of deployment in H2 2026, AMD AI data center revenue has $40-$50B+ at the lowest or most conservative projection; or Total Revenue in the $77-$94B For FY2026. However, Agentic AI massive demand spike could send EPYC revenue 3x to 4x in the next few years, potentially surpassing MI series GPU demand as enterprises prioritize CPU-dense Rack setups. This is pushing $NVDA Jensen to rush a CPU design and acquired Groq, a new CPU player due to this massive TAM. Noted that this is just popping just in weeks, highlighting we are just so early in this AI Supercycle and the pace of adoption is insane, and clearly productivity will skyrocket. Why? Because Agentic AI is 24/7 Smart AI agent working for you or your businesses is a mad compelling, and it is estimated to be 40-100x more Inference Hugnry! Many experts already said it is impossible to project this kind of Inference Demand. AI CapEx is expected to ramp up even more in 2027-2028-2029 and 2030 as Global Agentic AI is going to scale to $3-$5 Trillion TAM by 2030. The nature of Agentic is driving higher CPU/GPU ratio, with CPUs handling 50-90% of Agentic workflows. For example, The current Helios Rack: 18 compute trays per rack with 72 GPUs + 18 CPUs. The beauty of this $META and $AMD long term partnership is, that it is absolutely flexible to adjust racks to higher CPU rato or equal to service different needs. Helios rack can be easily swap to 2 GPUs 2CPUs or even CPUs only trays for dedicated orchestration/head nodes. You see, the beauty of this open rack-scale is flexibility and evolvability. If Agentic AI demand pushes much higher, AMD should be able to adjust variant trays without abandoning Heilos Rack. We can't talk just about massive Agentic AI demand without talking about the Supply side or TSMC. TSMC, AMD's primary foundry for advanced nodes ( Zen 6/Venice on N2/2nm), is addressing AI-driven shortages through massive expansions. TSMC accelerates fab construction with up to 10 facilities targeted for 2026. TSMC is accelerating its domestic manufacturing expansion, with industry sources indicating that as many as ten fabs could be under construction or preparing to begin operations across Taiwan’s major science parks. TSMC Capex: $52-56B in 2026 (up 37% YoY), with $45B already approved for new/upgraded capacities. 70-80% for advanced processes (2nm/A16), 10-20% for packaging (CoWoS quadrupling to 120-140K wafers/month by late 2026). In addition, Taiwanese companies (led by TSMC) commit to at least $250B in direct investments in US-based advanced semiconductor, AI, and energy production/innovation capacity.Taiwan provides $250B in government credit guarantees to facilitate additional investments and build a full US semiconductor ecosystem (including industrial parks). TSMC completed a second land purchase in Arizona (January 2026) for gigafab scaling, with an additional $100B+ (potentially four more modules) to further expand and qualify for tariff exemptions. AMD with secured 12GW from OpenAI and $META and massive Agentic AI will mean higher priority acess to 20-30% more wafers on TSMC advanced nodes, as TSMC has multi-year agreements with AMD for AI chips. Dr. C. C. Wei, CEO of TSMC quote: "I spend a lot of time in the last three or four months talking to my customer and then customers. Customer. I want to make sure that my customers demand are real. I talk to those cloud service providers, all of them. Their answer is. I'm quite satisfied with their answer. Actually they show me the evidence that the AI really help their business. So they grow their business successfully and he or she in their financial return. So I also double check their financial status. They are very rich." Amid shortages, the US buildout ensures AMD can ramp production of Instinct GPUs and EPYC CPUs without the constraints hitting competitors like Intel. By diversifying away from Taiwan (85% of advanced nodes today), the agreement mitigates supply disruptions, ensuring stable flows for AMD's chips. Scaling production and securing supply will matter for AMD the most in the next 5-10 years growth. The growth could be 80-100% YoY or higher; or it could be in the 60%. The aggressive TSMC supply ramp is reassuring the higher growth point. Conclusion: AMD stands at a pivotal inflection point in 2026, where the explosive rise of agentic AI demanding 40-100x more inference compute through its 24/7, multi-step orchestration positions the company to potentially triple its EPYC CPU revenue to $45-60B+ by 2028 while scaling Instinct GPUs to tens of billions annually by 2027. Agentic AI demand could push AI CapEx closer to $1 Trillion in 2027, far higher than most estimates. Dr. Lisa Su, AMD's visionary CEO, is masterfully securing supply to harness this massive demand by prioritizing operational execution and deep TSMC collaboration, ensuring readiness for the second-half 2026 AI ramp. Dr. Su has explicitly called out surging EPYC demand for agentic tasks where CPUs power head nodes and traditional workloads alongside GPUs while guiding for data center dominance through proactive capacity planning and partnerships like Nutanix ($150M investment for open agentic platforms) or providing tens of millions CPUs for OpenAI, $META, $ORCL, $AMZN, $MSFT, $GOOGL and others. Her strategy includes multi-year TSMC agreements for advanced nodes (N2 for Venice CPUs and future Instincts), diversifying beyond Taiwan to mitigate risks, and unveiling innovations like the MI455X GPU at CES 2026, which she touted as enabling "the next trillion-dollar market opportunity" in physical AI. Dr. Su's forward-looking vision predicting AI reaching 5 billion users emphasizes "AI everywhere," backed by hardware like Ryzen AI chips, all while declaring demand "going through the roof" and committing to scale without bottlenecks. TSMC's aggressive ramp-up, fueled by $52-56B in 2026 capex (up 37% YoY) and 10+ new fabs across Taiwan, the US (Arizona cluster expanding to 6+ modules with $165B+ investment), Japan, and Europe, provides profound reassurance for AMD's supply stability. The January 2026 US-Taiwan agreement committing $250B in investments and credit guarantees for US reshoring accelerates this, granting tariff relief (15% rates with 1.5-2.5x exemptions) tied to capacity buildouts, enabling TSMC to potentially double output over the decade to meet AI wafer hunger. This translates to 20-30% higher wafer allocations on key nodes, sidestepping Intel-like shortages and empowering Dr. Su's team to deliver on hyperscaler demands without disruption. Ultimately, this synergy cements AMD's leadership in the agentic era, promising sustained growth, $5T+ valuations at scale, and a resilient path forward as AI reshapes the world. This is NOT Financial Advice! Video source: AMD CES 2026
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$AMD $5 Trillion is Inevitable LT| Agentic AI🧵 Agentic AI is the new $5 Trillion TAM 🚨🚨🚨 This thead will do Comp with $INTC and how to quantify this massive Agentic AI demand spike, and forcing Jensen to rush a CPU design. Global Agentic AI Market size is estimated to be $3-$5Trillion TAM by 2030(McKinsey) Quantifying the demand from agentic AI for AMD involves assessing the broader market growth for agentic systems, their unique computational requirements (particularly for CPUs in orchestration and reasoning tasks), and AMD's positioning very well through products like EPYC processors and partnerships. AMD EPYC Venice is the most superior choice in 2026-2027 for most Agentic AI workloads Agentic AI refers to autonomous AI agents that perform multi-step tasks, involving sequential logic, tool integration, and decision-making workloads that heavily rely on CPUs for handling orchestration, memory management, and context switching, rather than just GPU-parallelized training or batch inference. Agentic AI is often cited as 40-100x more "hungry" than traditional AI due to its continuous, 24/7 operation and complex workflows. This stems from factors like chain-of-thought reasoning (multiple LLM calls per query), API/tool interactions, memory management, and orchestration loops, which can generate 10-100x more tokens and require real-time responsiveness. For example, a single agentic query might trigger 5-20 model inferences, making it 10-20x more compute-intensive than simple chatbots, and the always-on nature compounds this to 40-100x overall. Nvidia's CEO has highlighted this as driving "easily 100x more computation" for inference in agentic/reasoning setups. AMD's EPYC Venice (6th Gen EPYC, codenamed "Venice") and Intel's Xeon 7 Diamond Rapids represent the pinnacle of server CPU technology in 2026, both targeting high-performance data center workloads like AI inference, agentic AI orchestration, cloud computing, and HPC. Venice builds on AMD's Zen 6 architecture, emphasizing core density and efficiency, while Diamond Rapids leverages Intel's Panther Cove P-cores for balanced performance. Both chips adopt similar advancements like 16-channel DDR5 memory and PCIe Gen 6, but differ in core counts, process nodes, and overall design philosophy. Intel has faced acute supply constraints across its Xeon lineup, including legacy nodes (Intel 7/3) and the ramping 18A process for next-gen parts. Intel shortage is expected with lead times up to 6 months or longer. 1. AMD EPYC Venice vs Intel Xeon 7 Diamond Rapids Architecture AMD: Zen 6 chiplet design with 8 CCDs and dual IODs Intel: Panther Cove P-cores; multi-die architecture with 4 compute tiles Core/Thread Count AMD: Up to 256 cores / 512 threads (Zen 6c variant) Intel: Up to 192 cores / 192 threads Process Node AMD: TSMC N2 (2nm) Intel: Intel 18A (1.8nm-class); in-house fab Memory Support AMD: 16-channel DDR5; up to 1.6 TB/s bandwidth. Intel: 16-channel DDR5 ; up to 1.6 TB/s bandwidth I/O and Connectivity AMD: PCIe Gen 6 (up to 128 lanes); twice the CPU-to-GPU bandwidth Intel: PCIe Gen 6 (up to 128 lanes); LGA 9324 socket Power (TDP) AMD: Starting 400-500W, potentially lower due to efficiency gains from TSMC 2nm Intel: Starting 400-500W, as it targets competitive efficiency Performance Projections AMD: Up to 70% uplift vs. 5th Gen Turin (1.7x in multi-threaded/AI tasks) Intel: ~40% faster than Granite Rapids (Xeon 6, 128-core). Lags AMD in per-core perf and 40-50% behind Venice core-for-core comp Target Workloads AMD: AI inference/orchestration, HPC, cloud virtualization. Partnerships Intel: Hyperscale AI, general enterprise. Custom silicon Pricing: AMD: estimated $10k-$20k for top SKUs Intel: estimated $8-$18k Availability: AMD: Significant Ramp H2 2026 due to higher allocation from TSMC Intel: H1-H2 2026 delayed, but trying to catch up Overall: ~Venice's 256 cores provide a 33% edge over Diamond Rapids' 192, making it superior for massively parallel tasks like AI training/inference or virtualization ~TSMC's N2 vs. Intel 18A debates rage on which is "better," but AMD's mature chiplet approach yields better density ( 32 cores/CCD vs. Intel's 48/tile). Venice's redesign reduces latency, aiding agentic AI where CPUs handle orchestration ~ Early projections show Venice widening AMD's lead matching or exceeding Diamond Rapids' perf with fewer watts in multi-threaded benchmarks. Intel's no-SMT design (to prioritize AI) handicaps it vs. AMD's 512 threads, though Clearwater Forest (E-core) could compete in density-focused niches. ~Power & Cooling: Both push above 400-500W, demanding liquid cooling. ~AMD been taking market share now above 40%. AMD EPYC Venice emerges as the superior choice in 2026 for most server workloads. Its higher core/thread count (256/512 vs. 192/192), stronger per-core performance, and architecture optimized for AI-driven tasks (agentic orchestration with GPU integration) provide decisive advantages in throughput, scalability, and efficiency. Projections indicate Venice delivering 1.7x the performance of prior gens while widening the gap over Intel ( 40-70% leads in multi-threaded benchmarks). AMD's fabless model with TSMC ensures reliable scaling, and its ecosystem ( open ROCm) appeals to AI adopters. Intel's Diamond Rapids is competitive in single-threaded enterprise apps and custom hyperscale ( NVLink), with potential fab advantages for supply/security. However, without SMT and lower density, it falls short in core-for-core battles—exposing Intel to another generation of AMD dominance unless 18A yields surprise efficiency gains. For data centers prioritizing raw compute ( AI, HPC), Venice wins; for Intel-centric ecosystems or specialized I/O, Diamond Rapids holds ground. Real benchmarks post-launch will confirm, but logic points to AMD pulling ahead. 2. Market size , Potential Revenue and Supply Global Agentic AI market size is projected to be $3-$5 Trillion by 2030 according to McKinsey, where consensus points to 40-50% CAGR driven by small to large enterprise demand. I also wrote a full thread on how and why Agentic AI is so explosive that AMD will blow all anlaysts estimate for subscribers. Link below if you are interested. AMD's data center segment hit a record $5.4B in Q4 2025 (up 39% YoY), with EPYC shipments ramping due to agentic demand. With 2GW of deployment in H2 2026, AMD AI data center revenue has $40-$50B+ at the lowest or most conservative projection; or Total Revenue in the $77-$94B For FY2026. However, Agentic AI massive demand spike could send EPYC revenue 3x to 4x in the next few years, potentially surpassing MI series GPU demand as enterprises prioritize CPU-dense Rack setups. This is pushing $NVDA Jensen to rush a CPU design and acquired Groq, a new CPU player due to this massive TAM. Noted that this is just popping just in weeks, highlighting we are just so early in this AI Supercycle and the pace of adoption is insane, and clearly productivity will skyrocket. Why? Because Agentic AI is 24/7 Smart AI agent working for you or your businesses is a mad compelling, and it is estimated to be 40-100x more Inference Hugnry! Many experts already said it is impossible to project this kind of Inference Demand. AI CapEx is expected to ramp up even more in 2027-2028-2029 and 2030 as Global Agentic AI is going to scale to $3-$5 Trillion TAM by 2030. The nature of Agentic is driving higher CPU/GPU ratio, with CPUs handling 50-90% of Agentic workflows. For example, The current Helios Rack: 18 compute trays per rack with 72 GPUs + 18 CPUs. The beauty of this $META and $AMD long term partnership is, that it is absolutely flexible to adjust racks to higher CPU rato or equal to service different needs. Helios rack can be easily swap to 2 GPUs 2CPUs or even CPUs only trays for dedicated orchestration/head nodes. You see, the beauty of this open rack-scale is flexibility and evolvability. If Agentic AI demand pushes much higher, AMD should be able to adjust variant trays without abandoning Heilos Rack. We can't talk just about massive Agentic AI demand without talking about the Supply side or TSMC. TSMC, AMD's primary foundry for advanced nodes ( Zen 6/Venice on N2/2nm), is addressing AI-driven shortages through massive expansions. TSMC accelerates fab construction with up to 10 facilities targeted for 2026. TSMC is accelerating its domestic manufacturing expansion, with industry sources indicating that as many as ten fabs could be under construction or preparing to begin operations across Taiwan’s major science parks. TSMC Capex: $52-56B in 2026 (up 37% YoY), with $45B already approved for new/upgraded capacities. 70-80% for advanced processes (2nm/A16), 10-20% for packaging (CoWoS quadrupling to 120-140K wafers/month by late 2026). In addition, Taiwanese companies (led by TSMC) commit to at least $250B in direct investments in US-based advanced semiconductor, AI, and energy production/innovation capacity.Taiwan provides $250B in government credit guarantees to facilitate additional investments and build a full US semiconductor ecosystem (including industrial parks). TSMC completed a second land purchase in Arizona (January 2026) for gigafab scaling, with an additional $100B+ (potentially four more modules) to further expand and qualify for tariff exemptions. AMD with secured 12GW from OpenAI and $META and massive Agentic AI will mean higher priority acess to 20-30% more wafers on TSMC advanced nodes, as TSMC has multi-year agreements with AMD for AI chips. Dr. C. C. Wei, CEO of TSMC quote: "I spend a lot of time in the last three or four months talking to my customer and then customers. Customer. I want to make sure that my customers demand are real. I talk to those cloud service providers, all of them. Their answer is. I'm quite satisfied with their answer. Actually they show me the evidence that the AI really help their business. So they grow their business successfully and he or she in their financial return. So I also double check their financial status. They are very rich." Amid shortages, the US buildout ensures AMD can ramp production of Instinct GPUs and EPYC CPUs without the constraints hitting competitors like Intel. By diversifying away from Taiwan (85% of advanced nodes today), the agreement mitigates supply disruptions, ensuring stable flows for AMD's chips. Scaling production and securing supply will matter for AMD the most in the next 5-10 years growth. The growth could be 80-100% YoY or higher; or it could be in the 60%. The aggressive TSMC supply ramp is reassuring the higher growth point. Conclusion: AMD stands at a pivotal inflection point in 2026, where the explosive rise of agentic AI demanding 40-100x more inference compute through its 24/7, multi-step orchestration positions the company to potentially triple its EPYC CPU revenue to $45-60B+ by 2028 while scaling Instinct GPUs to tens of billions annually by 2027. Agentic AI demand could push AI CapEx closer to $1 Trillion in 2027, far higher than most estimates. Dr. Lisa Su, AMD's visionary CEO, is masterfully securing supply to harness this massive demand by prioritizing operational execution and deep TSMC collaboration, ensuring readiness for the second-half 2026 AI ramp. Dr. Su has explicitly called out surging EPYC demand for agentic tasks where CPUs power head nodes and traditional workloads alongside GPUs while guiding for data center dominance through proactive capacity planning and partnerships like Nutanix ($150M investment for open agentic platforms) or providing tens of millions CPUs for OpenAI, $META, $ORCL, $AMZN, $MSFT, $GOOGL and others. Her strategy includes multi-year TSMC agreements for advanced nodes (N2 for Venice CPUs and future Instincts), diversifying beyond Taiwan to mitigate risks, and unveiling innovations like the MI455X GPU at CES 2026, which she touted as enabling "the next trillion-dollar market opportunity" in physical AI. Dr. Su's forward-looking vision predicting AI reaching 5 billion users emphasizes "AI everywhere," backed by hardware like Ryzen AI chips, all while declaring demand "going through the roof" and committing to scale without bottlenecks. TSMC's aggressive ramp-up, fueled by $52-56B in 2026 capex (up 37% YoY) and 10+ new fabs across Taiwan, the US (Arizona cluster expanding to 6+ modules with $165B+ investment), Japan, and Europe, provides profound reassurance for AMD's supply stability. The January 2026 US-Taiwan agreement committing $250B in investments and credit guarantees for US reshoring accelerates this, granting tariff relief (15% rates with 1.5-2.5x exemptions) tied to capacity buildouts, enabling TSMC to potentially double output over the decade to meet AI wafer hunger. This translates to 20-30% higher wafer allocations on key nodes, sidestepping Intel-like shortages and empowering Dr. Su's team to deliver on hyperscaler demands without disruption. Ultimately, this synergy cements AMD's leadership in the agentic era, promising sustained growth, $5T+ valuations at scale, and a resilient path forward as AI reshapes the world. This is NOT Financial Advice! Video source: AMD CES 2026

Mike

44,460 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

"The inflection point for inference has arrived." — Jensen Huang, Founder & CEO of NVIDIA We’ve officially crossed a new milestone in the inference era — where widespread adoption of AI shifts from learning to doing. The breakthrough: extreme codesign across hardware and software driving down cost per token. Lower cost → more inference More inference → more users and applications More users and applications → exponential AI revenue growth
0:41

"The inflection point for inference has arrived." — Jensen Huang, Founder & CEO of NVIDIA We’ve officially crossed a new milestone in the inference era — where widespread adoption of AI shifts from learning to doing. The breakthrough: extreme codesign across hardware and software driving down cost per token. Lower cost → more inference More inference → more users and applications More users and applications → exponential AI revenue growth

NVIDIA

81,393 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

$AMD MI400 series & Sam Altman OpenAI Sam Alman praised MI400 series GPUs and MI450, and stated “The memory architecture is great for inference [and] for training as well.” and a "Game changer" for frontier AI Models Ok we have Elon Musk xAI , Mark Zuckerberg $META, Sam Alman OpenAI , Tareq Amin( CEO of Saudi), Satya Nadella $MSFT, Andy Jassy $AMZN, Larry Ellison $ORCL and many CEOs from large to small provided positive feedbacks on MI400 series rack solution, which is expected to deliver up to 10x inference performance over piror generations. And short sellers/bears are still beating down on $AMD H2 2025 and 2026? AMD will hit new ATH before year end. Not Financial Advice!
4:18

$AMD MI400 series & Sam Altman OpenAI Sam Alman praised MI400 series GPUs and MI450, and stated “The memory architecture is great for inference [and] for training as well.” and a "Game changer" for frontier AI Models Ok we have Elon Musk xAI , Mark Zuckerberg $META, Sam Alman OpenAI , Tareq Amin( CEO of Saudi), Satya Nadella $MSFT, Andy Jassy $AMZN, Larry Ellison $ORCL and many CEOs from large to small provided positive feedbacks on MI400 series rack solution, which is expected to deliver up to 10x inference performance over piror generations. And short sellers/bears are still beating down on $AMD H2 2025 and 2026? AMD will hit new ATH before year end. Not Financial Advice!

Mike

88,980 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

$AMZN CEO: “If you want to allow customers to use AI as expansively as they want, you need to bring down the cost of inference.” Hyperscalers are preparing for the age of inference. $AMZN has Trainium, $GOOG has TPU and $MSFT recently announced Maia 200. Once the bulk of AI workloads shifts from training to inference, they’ll depend less on $NVDA and margins will expand thanks to vertical integration. $AMZN is leading the race here as their chip business has already reached $10 billion annual run rate. Imagine being bearish on $AMZN.
1:27

$AMZN CEO: “If you want to allow customers to use AI as expansively as they want, you need to bring down the cost of inference.” Hyperscalers are preparing for the age of inference. $AMZN has Trainium, $GOOG has TPU and $MSFT recently announced Maia 200. Once the bulk of AI workloads shifts from training to inference, they’ll depend less on $NVDA and margins will expand thanks to vertical integration. $AMZN is leading the race here as their chip business has already reached $10 billion annual run rate. Imagine being bearish on $AMZN.

Oguz Erkan

130,592 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

$AMD shareholders after $MSFT $META said they can't stop buying AMD chips and have much higher margin on Inference due to Superior TCO,TDP and $/M Tokens
0:29

$AMD shareholders after $MSFT $META said they can't stop buying AMD chips and have much higher margin on Inference due to Superior TCO,TDP and $/M Tokens

Mike

206,103 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

From training to inference at massive scale, delivering on the promise of AI depends on collaboration across open hardware and software. AMD and OpenAI are working together to tailor hardware like Instinct MI455X and Helios for where AI workloads are going, not just where they are today. Greg Brockman (Greg Brockman) on the power of our engineering partnership at #CES2026.
1:07

From training to inference at massive scale, delivering on the promise of AI depends on collaboration across open hardware and software. AMD and OpenAI are working together to tailor hardware like Instinct MI455X and Helios for where AI workloads are going, not just where they are today. Greg Brockman (Greg Brockman) on the power of our engineering partnership at #CES2026.

AMD

19,984 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Higgsfield AI CEO: “We found out that $AMD is outperforming $NVDA in video inference.” Meanwhile $AMD: - Data center revenue up 59% YoY. - Killing Intel in data center CPUs. - Insiders are loading up. And it’s trading at a lower P/E than $NVDA which is 17 times bigger.
1:35

Higgsfield AI CEO: “We found out that $AMD is outperforming $NVDA in video inference.” Meanwhile $AMD: - Data center revenue up 59% YoY. - Killing Intel in data center CPUs. - Insiders are loading up. And it’s trading at a lower P/E than $NVDA which is 17 times bigger.

Oguz O. | 𝕏 Capitalist 💸

117,085 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

"Inference, if you look at it as a market, will be much, much bigger than cloud computing was pre-ChatGPT." Lightspeed’s Bucky Moore says inference is an underrated investment category in AI, and expects the market to break up into large, specialized platforms for each modality: "The GPU supply crunch that we're seeing right now is largely, as Dylan Patel has said on the show before, due to the fact that not only these consumer products, but also B2B products like Claude Code and Codex are just really taking off and creating insane demand for inference." "We're talking hundreds of billions in spend every year. And if that's true, I think there will be very, very large inference platforms built in each modality." "So there will be an inference platform for real-time video models, there will be an inference platform for open-source and custom language models, there will be an inference platform built specifically for long-running agents." "So I think we're just going to see that industry, which today looks like one industry, break up into many because of how big it is and how much room for specialization there is."
1:02

"Inference, if you look at it as a market, will be much, much bigger than cloud computing was pre-ChatGPT." Lightspeed’s Bucky Moore says inference is an underrated investment category in AI, and expects the market to break up into large, specialized platforms for each modality: "The GPU supply crunch that we're seeing right now is largely, as Dylan Patel has said on the show before, due to the fact that not only these consumer products, but also B2B products like Claude Code and Codex are just really taking off and creating insane demand for inference." "We're talking hundreds of billions in spend every year. And if that's true, I think there will be very, very large inference platforms built in each modality." "So there will be an inference platform for real-time video models, there will be an inference platform for open-source and custom language models, there will be an inference platform built specifically for long-running agents." "So I think we're just going to see that industry, which today looks like one industry, break up into many because of how big it is and how much room for specialization there is."

TBPN

33,278 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

$AMD CEO Lisa Su said Helios has industry-leading specs and is on track to launch this year. Built with $META, Helios targets large-scale AI training &amp; inference aiming for up to 10x performance where performance per dollar matters.
1:17

$AMD CEO Lisa Su said Helios has industry-leading specs and is on track to launch this year. Built with $META, Helios targets large-scale AI training &amp; inference aiming for up to 10x performance where performance per dollar matters.

Shay Boloor

117,981 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten