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$AMD | Revised down after Dr. Su said she will substantially increase supply in 2027 due to massive demand and talking to suppliers for 2028-2030 for higher capacity. Morgan Stanley is now more bullish on AMD CPU than GPU lol. $TSM gave AMD the highest allocation increase and ramping...

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Mike

28,205 subscribers

45,053 просмотров • 25 дней назад •via X (Twitter)

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Комментарии: 17

Фото профиля FadeTheXX
FadeTheXX25 дней назад

@AMD Do car salesman apologize for ripping off your wife?

Фото профиля 美股彭于晏｜PYY Research
美股彭于晏｜PYY Research25 дней назад

@AMD cutting AMD GPU units 43% right after Lisa says she's adding supply is some timing lol

Фото профиля StayInYourLane
StayInYourLane25 дней назад

@AMD So MS totally missed the boat on AMD and now has to hit piece them to get In before earnings? Is that how this reads?1

Фото профиля Tech Spectator
Tech Spectator25 дней назад

@AMD Can you at least cite the “revised down” report?

Фото профиля Mike
Mike25 дней назад

@AMD it is from @pequityresearch sourced from MS forecast

Фото профиля Mike
Mike24 дней назад

$AMD is down rouhgly $80 from when the MS report revision released. And yes, MS has way too much influence on institutions/Algos.

Фото профиля Bubba G
Bubba G25 дней назад

@AMD Not just revised down. Morgan Stanley has just cut the projected $AMD demand almost in half.

Фото профиля Michael Haanen
Michael Haanen25 дней назад

@AMD Morgan Stanley lowest of the price targets so I ignore them. Lisa said in AUGUST “Your (analyst) targets are too low.” Demand is skyrocketing it’s a supply issue. AMD GPUs starting to outperform Nvidias. $amd

Фото профиля Alex Fuste
Alex Fuste25 дней назад

@AMD Could you provide a link to the Morgan Stanley report showing this downward revision?

Фото профиля Daniel Davies
Daniel Davies25 дней назад

@AMD Btm is defo in boys when anal ysts come out with downgrades in the midst of a Tsunami...

Фото профиля Darren
Darren25 дней назад

@AMD Memory stocks trade on YoY shipments, not earnings.

Фото профиля Michel
Michel 24 дней назад

@AMD 🎭

Фото профиля Laigt Bringer
Laigt Bringer25 дней назад

@AMD That is incorrect; in fact, analysts have been overly optimistic about AMD in recent years, anticipating GPU sales for data centers that never materialized.

Фото профиля Mike
Mike25 дней назад

@AMD False. Analysts been wrong on AMD growth for the last 5-10 years, at 0 point they were bullish until very recently

Фото профиля Laigt Bringer
Laigt Bringer25 дней назад

@AMD False; analysts have been optimistic since 2024, assuming that AMD would gain market share in data centers. It is absurd for you to try to deny this.

Фото профиля Mike
Mike25 дней назад

Tf you talking about, MS was and still is the most bearish on AMD since 2024 with nonstop downgrades and warned expectations too high where NVDA and AVGO were #1 choice. Had 2024-2025-2026 revenue all wrong. Repeated bearish notes from 2024-2025 and ony flipped bullish CPU recently.

Фото профиля Sambo
Sambo25 дней назад

@AMD There are supplier constraints short term, that’s all. In fact the ramp up to 20k Helio racks in 2027 also cited in Keybanc research would be well ahead of cons ; timing issue, no impact to long term DCF. BTFD lets go 🚀🚀🚀

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$AMD CEO: “We will need to add 100x more compute in the next 4-5 years.” McKinsey predicts that semiconductor market will double to $1.6 trillion by 2030. Lisa Su guides for 35% annual revenue growth for $AMD by 2030. $AMD is the most compelling opportunity in the chip space.
2:10

$AMD CEO: “We will need to add 100x more compute in the next 4-5 years.” McKinsey predicts that semiconductor market will double to $1.6 trillion by 2030. Lisa Su guides for 35% annual revenue growth for $AMD by 2030. $AMD is the most compelling opportunity in the chip space.

Oguz Erkan

288,519 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

$AMD| I'm raising my personal PT on AMD to $800 by end of 2026 🤔⤴️📶☑️ Not Financial Advice! DYOR! This is due to too many massive deals signed from H1 2027. And Congratz to all AMD long term shareholders, and especially the hardwork from AMD team! If you were paying attention in 2024 and 2025, u know these deals would come in 2026 and 2027. At $800 PT year end, that would be trading at 22-25x FY2027 P/E(updated projection), which I believe would be very reasonable IMO at this kind of growth and potential. Market may shoot up AMD far higher than my PT, due to FOMO and years of the least owned among Funds. Institutional FOMO is a different beast vs Retails, so I wont speculate on that. Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 are likely to be biggest jump YoY growth of 3 digits. Stock will be re-rated violently as the numbers to get better and better after Q1 2027. What do we know so far in 2027 on Helios Rack: ~OpenAI & Meta want 4GW (BofA 2026 Conference) ~Anthropic wants 1GW+ ~ $MSFT wants probably as much as Anthropic ~TensorWave wants 1.5GW, this is most likely dependent on if they can sign up 2GW capacity ~5C 1.5GW but did not disclose for 2027, so i will use conservative 0.5GW ~Amazon is also expected to be a customer, wont speculate on GW for now ~LumaAI/HUMAIN wants 6.6GW, or roughly 0.5GW-1GW in 2027 ~Softbank France 5GW, but most likely starting in 2028= not 2027 ~ $DELL $HPE $SMCI ... = probably 0.5-1GW ~ SEA, SA and Europe are likely to be in the 0.5GW combined This is why Dr. Su went to Taiwan to secure more Advanced Packaging, the biggest bottleneck. Will be interesting to monitor $TSM supply chain ramp. Currently TSMC 2nm is on track to meet 140k WPM by end of 2026 and 220-240k WPM by end of 2027, TSMC is also investing $100B in the US for 4-5 more fabs and more CapEx in Taiwan as well. I'm excited about Agentic AI Rack, specifically EPYC Venice, we saw the massive teaser from $HPE $AMD Venice 81,920 core per rack. Morgan Stanley estimated 6.75m Venice units to be sold in 2027. In $HPE Rack, that is abt 320 Venice CPUs In $AMD rack, roughly 140-150 Venice CPUs Because AMD is optimized for TCO, while $HPE is optimized for Maximum number of Agents per rack. So MS 6.75m Venice = ~46,551 EPYC Venice Racks. I believe this is a conservative estimate. I will update my personal FY2027 PT later as we get more data on Q4 2026 ER. Superior TCO leads to accelerated adoption, and this is where we are at with $AMD . I expect more customers to pop up on small-large contracts. All AI labs will need to own AMD racks to lower Training Cost and have the lowest Inference cost. Not Financial Advice! DYOR!
0:33

$AMD| I'm raising my personal PT on AMD to $800 by end of 2026 🤔⤴️📶☑️ Not Financial Advice! DYOR! This is due to too many massive deals signed from H1 2027. And Congratz to all AMD long term shareholders, and especially the hardwork from AMD team! If you were paying attention in 2024 and 2025, u know these deals would come in 2026 and 2027. At $800 PT year end, that would be trading at 22-25x FY2027 P/E(updated projection), which I believe would be very reasonable IMO at this kind of growth and potential. Market may shoot up AMD far higher than my PT, due to FOMO and years of the least owned among Funds. Institutional FOMO is a different beast vs Retails, so I wont speculate on that. Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 are likely to be biggest jump YoY growth of 3 digits. Stock will be re-rated violently as the numbers to get better and better after Q1 2027. What do we know so far in 2027 on Helios Rack: ~OpenAI & Meta want 4GW (BofA 2026 Conference) ~Anthropic wants 1GW+ ~ $MSFT wants probably as much as Anthropic ~TensorWave wants 1.5GW, this is most likely dependent on if they can sign up 2GW capacity ~5C 1.5GW but did not disclose for 2027, so i will use conservative 0.5GW ~Amazon is also expected to be a customer, wont speculate on GW for now ~LumaAI/HUMAIN wants 6.6GW, or roughly 0.5GW-1GW in 2027 ~Softbank France 5GW, but most likely starting in 2028= not 2027 ~ $DELL $HPE $SMCI ... = probably 0.5-1GW ~ SEA, SA and Europe are likely to be in the 0.5GW combined This is why Dr. Su went to Taiwan to secure more Advanced Packaging, the biggest bottleneck. Will be interesting to monitor $TSM supply chain ramp. Currently TSMC 2nm is on track to meet 140k WPM by end of 2026 and 220-240k WPM by end of 2027, TSMC is also investing $100B in the US for 4-5 more fabs and more CapEx in Taiwan as well. I'm excited about Agentic AI Rack, specifically EPYC Venice, we saw the massive teaser from $HPE $AMD Venice 81,920 core per rack. Morgan Stanley estimated 6.75m Venice units to be sold in 2027. In $HPE Rack, that is abt 320 Venice CPUs In $AMD rack, roughly 140-150 Venice CPUs Because AMD is optimized for TCO, while $HPE is optimized for Maximum number of Agents per rack. So MS 6.75m Venice = ~46,551 EPYC Venice Racks. I believe this is a conservative estimate. I will update my personal FY2027 PT later as we get more data on Q4 2026 ER. Superior TCO leads to accelerated adoption, and this is where we are at with $AMD . I expect more customers to pop up on small-large contracts. All AI labs will need to own AMD racks to lower Training Cost and have the lowest Inference cost. Not Financial Advice! DYOR!

Mike

150,441 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

$NVDA CEO: “Demand for inference will go up by a billion times.” $AMD will be one of the biggest winners as it has the upper hand in inference thanks to larger memory bandwith and capacity of its chips. Stock is still at 22x 2027 earnings. How can’t you be bullish on $AMD?
0:20

$NVDA CEO: “Demand for inference will go up by a billion times.” $AMD will be one of the biggest winners as it has the upper hand in inference thanks to larger memory bandwith and capacity of its chips. Stock is still at 22x 2027 earnings. How can’t you be bullish on $AMD?

Oguz Erkan

288,805 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

BREAKING $AMD Dr. Lisa Su Fresh Interview 🚀🚀 Note: This was after CES AMD ANALysts concluded OpenAI has no money, but $40B Cash and Raising $100B where they already secured $22B from SoftBank. This morning they also concluded Saudi has $0 money backing and LumaAI for 2GW AMD chips deployment. HUMAIN is extremely well-funded and is a subsidiary of Saudi Arabia's PIF, which manages nearly $1 trillion in assets🤣! So far, ANALysts are concluding whoever buying Chips from AMD are broke. Oh $ORCL too. They also said $META(AMD MI300X largest customer) is broke. They will soon conclude $MSFT and $AMZN are extremely poor too. AMD ANALysts can continue to be SEXIST. Dr. Lisa Su will continue to execute. Fundamental matters more than Opinions. Source: CNBC
10:45

BREAKING $AMD Dr. Lisa Su Fresh Interview 🚀🚀 Note: This was after CES AMD ANALysts concluded OpenAI has no money, but $40B Cash and Raising $100B where they already secured $22B from SoftBank. This morning they also concluded Saudi has $0 money backing and LumaAI for 2GW AMD chips deployment. HUMAIN is extremely well-funded and is a subsidiary of Saudi Arabia's PIF, which manages nearly $1 trillion in assets🤣! So far, ANALysts are concluding whoever buying Chips from AMD are broke. Oh $ORCL too. They also said $META(AMD MI300X largest customer) is broke. They will soon conclude $MSFT and $AMZN are extremely poor too. AMD ANALysts can continue to be SEXIST. Dr. Lisa Su will continue to execute. Fundamental matters more than Opinions. Source: CNBC

Mike

35,337 просмотров • 10 месяцев назад

$AMD Dr. Su full press in Taiwan 🆕🚨🚨🚨 I dont think AMD analysts or bears are ready for H2 2026 and 2027. The level of growth will be so massive that everyone would be shocked. Well mostly because they didnt read Mike threads. CPU:GPU Ratio is much higher than 1:1, most likely in the 3-5:1 moving to 5-10:1 . Enterprises are demanding more and more agents running tasks longer and more intensive. Dr. Su is too nice to say it out loud. But that does not mean training gonna go away. Just growing significantly slower than Inference.
6:50

$AMD Dr. Su full press in Taiwan 🆕🚨🚨🚨 I dont think AMD analysts or bears are ready for H2 2026 and 2027. The level of growth will be so massive that everyone would be shocked. Well mostly because they didnt read Mike threads. CPU:GPU Ratio is much higher than 1:1, most likely in the 3-5:1 moving to 5-10:1 . Enterprises are demanding more and more agents running tasks longer and more intensive. Dr. Su is too nice to say it out loud. But that does not mean training gonna go away. Just growing significantly slower than Inference.

Mike

233,700 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

BREAKING $AMD Dr. Lisa Su Full interview in Taiwan🚨🚀 In this public interview, AMD CEO Dr. Lisa Su stated her goals coming to Taiwan 2nd time since May 2026. Interview Date is October 10th 2026!!!! ~ It is important for us to work with key suppliers and partners ~Foxconn is a great partner and we met with other partners and customers ~It is a very busy trip for 1 day ~We increased our supply in 2026, but Demand is much higher than supply, we are increasing supply with TSMC and our substrate partners. We are excited to see more progress from Personal AI(Muse,Dots). ~We definitely can use more supply CPU GPU and All of AI demand. We are seeing a lot of progresses being made. ~ We have great partnership with all memory partners. We want to ensure we have enough memory for server as well as PC. We want to plan for demand carefully with our partners and customers ~ We have VERY VERY HIGH Demand for next few years, and we need more capacity. TSMC Arizona capacity been doing very well for us, and we are looking for more capacity worldwide. ~We partner with the largest suppliers and we plan to keep our business Fabless. Before we plan for 1-2 years, but now we (AMD) are planning for 3-4-5 years. We need all capacity come up at the same time ~Demand for AMD Chips is VERY HIGH. ~We seen tremendeous progresses on AI, we can innovate and keep it safe, we can do both. We can work together and innovate as fast as possible ~I'm very excited on our World Labs acquisition with Dr. Fei-Fei Li. We have much more software and hardware interaction, so very excited to see Worldlabs and AMD coming together. ~We believe AI is incredibly good for the world. With New technology, we will some work on AI safety innovation. Companies can learn from each other, together we can have capable AI and safe AI. ~You are going to see AI for Enterprises, Researches, Physical Applications. We will have many winners in this space. ~ We think it is good to have geographical diversity. ~We are looking for more Wafer Capacity from TSMC and partners. ~Our Venice has very high adoption rate from Largest Hyperscalers, AI labs, Enterprises customers and partners. We have great partnership with TSMC and we are confident to get supply we need. ~Advanced packaging is super important for us and we are looking for more innovation and how we can bring more capacity to service demand. We do need more capacity overall. ~$10B investment in Taiwan is on track and we plan to increase it to increase supply. ~Helios is on track and we continue to ramp even more in next few quarters. Source: ETtoday
11:34

BREAKING $AMD Dr. Lisa Su Full interview in Taiwan🚨🚀 In this public interview, AMD CEO Dr. Lisa Su stated her goals coming to Taiwan 2nd time since May 2026. Interview Date is October 10th 2026!!!! ~ It is important for us to work with key suppliers and partners ~Foxconn is a great partner and we met with other partners and customers ~It is a very busy trip for 1 day ~We increased our supply in 2026, but Demand is much higher than supply, we are increasing supply with TSMC and our substrate partners. We are excited to see more progress from Personal AI(Muse,Dots). ~We definitely can use more supply CPU GPU and All of AI demand. We are seeing a lot of progresses being made. ~ We have great partnership with all memory partners. We want to ensure we have enough memory for server as well as PC. We want to plan for demand carefully with our partners and customers ~ We have VERY VERY HIGH Demand for next few years, and we need more capacity. TSMC Arizona capacity been doing very well for us, and we are looking for more capacity worldwide. ~We partner with the largest suppliers and we plan to keep our business Fabless. Before we plan for 1-2 years, but now we (AMD) are planning for 3-4-5 years. We need all capacity come up at the same time ~Demand for AMD Chips is VERY HIGH. ~We seen tremendeous progresses on AI, we can innovate and keep it safe, we can do both. We can work together and innovate as fast as possible ~I'm very excited on our World Labs acquisition with Dr. Fei-Fei Li. We have much more software and hardware interaction, so very excited to see Worldlabs and AMD coming together. ~We believe AI is incredibly good for the world. With New technology, we will some work on AI safety innovation. Companies can learn from each other, together we can have capable AI and safe AI. ~You are going to see AI for Enterprises, Researches, Physical Applications. We will have many winners in this space. ~ We think it is good to have geographical diversity. ~We are looking for more Wafer Capacity from TSMC and partners. ~Our Venice has very high adoption rate from Largest Hyperscalers, AI labs, Enterprises customers and partners. We have great partnership with TSMC and we are confident to get supply we need. ~Advanced packaging is super important for us and we are looking for more innovation and how we can bring more capacity to service demand. We do need more capacity overall. ~$10B investment in Taiwan is on track and we plan to increase it to increase supply. ~Helios is on track and we continue to ramp even more in next few quarters. Source: ETtoday

Mike

35,706 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

$AMD shareholders suddenly realized AMD been betting on Agentic CPUs since 2022 or abt 4 years ahead of everyone. All CPUs cant even beat EPYC Turin that is 2 years old. Meta Muse is the first successful Consumers Agentic product, but the message is, $META does not have to rent compute to win in AI CapEx buildout and Mark Zuckerberg knows how to monetize AI better, faster than anyone! Meta Muse also proves Demand for CPU is not going to be $220B+ by 2030, it will increase by 5-10x or more toward $1T+ by 2030. Analysts are all behind on CPUs estimates. What we gonna see, nonstop revises on CPU TAMs. And AMD is going to be the biggest winner on Agentic AI! Here is the clip of Dr. Su betting on Agentic AI years ago while everyone was chasing GPUs. (Skip to 4:13) Not Financial Advice! DYOR!
9:30

$AMD shareholders suddenly realized AMD been betting on Agentic CPUs since 2022 or abt 4 years ahead of everyone. All CPUs cant even beat EPYC Turin that is 2 years old. Meta Muse is the first successful Consumers Agentic product, but the message is, $META does not have to rent compute to win in AI CapEx buildout and Mark Zuckerberg knows how to monetize AI better, faster than anyone! Meta Muse also proves Demand for CPU is not going to be $220B+ by 2030, it will increase by 5-10x or more toward $1T+ by 2030. Analysts are all behind on CPUs estimates. What we gonna see, nonstop revises on CPU TAMs. And AMD is going to be the biggest winner on Agentic AI! Here is the clip of Dr. Su betting on Agentic AI years ago while everyone was chasing GPUs. (Skip to 4:13) Not Financial Advice! DYOR!

Mike

11,139 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

$AMD will become a multi-trillion dollar company. The AI boom is no longer just about GPUs. In early AI data centers, the CPU-to-GPU ratio was around 1:8. Now it’s moving closer to 1:1 because agentic AI requires dramatically more CPU compute. Lisa Su: “Based on the demand signals we are seeing today and the structural increase in CPU compute requirements driven by agentic AI, we now expect the server CPU TAM to grow at greater than 35% annually, reaching over $120 billion by 2030.” Add to that the 6GW AI infrastructure deals with $META and OpenAI, plus deep collaboration on multiple future chip generations, and it becomes clear why $AMD is positioned to compound for years. I’m not chasing $AMD here after a +110% move in just over a month. But the long-term story remains intact.
1:34

$AMD will become a multi-trillion dollar company. The AI boom is no longer just about GPUs. In early AI data centers, the CPU-to-GPU ratio was around 1:8. Now it’s moving closer to 1:1 because agentic AI requires dramatically more CPU compute. Lisa Su: “Based on the demand signals we are seeing today and the structural increase in CPU compute requirements driven by agentic AI, we now expect the server CPU TAM to grow at greater than 35% annually, reaching over $120 billion by 2030.” Add to that the 6GW AI infrastructure deals with $META and OpenAI, plus deep collaboration on multiple future chip generations, and it becomes clear why $AMD is positioned to compound for years. I’m not chasing $AMD here after a +110% move in just over a month. But the long-term story remains intact.

Daniel

39,622 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

The AMD advantage in agentic AI is architectural. See how AMD Ryzen AI combines CPU, GPU, and unified memory for end-to-end agent workflows. Learn more:
0:54

The AMD advantage in agentic AI is architectural. See how AMD Ryzen AI combines CPU, GPU, and unified memory for end-to-end agent workflows. Learn more:

AMD Ryzen

20,539 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

AMD: MY TOP PICK $AMD AMD has the potential to grow their earnings by 16x over the next 3 years in my opinion, driven by surging CPU, GPU, datacenter, and personal compute demand. 400% higher revenue and a profit margin that expands from 19% today to 76% in three years is what could make the 16x EPS growth possible. There are few stocks in the market that has the upside potential of AMD in my opinion.
1:59

AMD: MY TOP PICK $AMD AMD has the potential to grow their earnings by 16x over the next 3 years in my opinion, driven by surging CPU, GPU, datacenter, and personal compute demand. 400% higher revenue and a profit margin that expands from 19% today to 76% in three years is what could make the 16x EPS growth possible. There are few stocks in the market that has the upside potential of AMD in my opinion.

John Tinsman

43,386 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

RealityScan 2.2 and that means full AMD GPU support has landed! Mix AMD and NVIDIA in the same machine and RealityScan will use both at once. More details on that and the latest bug fixes can be found here:
0:56

RealityScan 2.2 and that means full AMD GPU support has landed! Mix AMD and NVIDIA in the same machine and RealityScan will use both at once. More details on that and the latest bug fixes can be found here:

Unreal Engine

22,481 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

BULLISH AMD: The CPU and GPU Boom Materializes $AMD 1) Guidance of 100%+ datacenter revenue growth 2) Agentic AI shifts workload from GPUs to CPUs 3) Significant profit margin expansion underway 4) AMD leads in desktop powered compute for AI AI has spend years positioning itself for the moment that AI compute shifts from datacenters to work and home desktops. I believe that moment is upon us. AMD's datacenter growth is spectacular at the very same time, and no other semiconductor has the ability to expand profit margins to multiply earnings like AMD in my opinion.
2:35

BULLISH AMD: The CPU and GPU Boom Materializes $AMD 1) Guidance of 100%+ datacenter revenue growth 2) Agentic AI shifts workload from GPUs to CPUs 3) Significant profit margin expansion underway 4) AMD leads in desktop powered compute for AI AI has spend years positioning itself for the moment that AI compute shifts from datacenters to work and home desktops. I believe that moment is upon us. AMD's datacenter growth is spectacular at the very same time, and no other semiconductor has the ability to expand profit margins to multiply earnings like AMD in my opinion.

John Tinsman

61,810 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

$AMD | Folks are asking why there is a massive disconnect here between $800 and $465 🧵 May be this should help, and most subscribers and followers already know. 1. I don't offer Financial Advice! 2. We have so many individual and institutional bears who made millions selling AI bubble fear porn and think they are smarter than the best CEOs in the world. Hence most semiconductor stocks are trading at 15–25x forward P/E even with massive growth, AMD included. I actually believe this is healthy, keeping valuations in check to give new investors better return. Would u prefer to invest at 15-25x fwd P/E or 30-50x fwd P/E? 3. Guidance is issued by the quarter, so we will only know officially in November 2026 for that biggest inflection in Q4. 4. Institutions are rotating back and forth between value stocks and growth stocks; out of AI, into AI stocks; one week risk-on, another week risk-off. They are trading much more frequently now. 5. Most AMD analysts are becoming more and more bullish, but projections and forecasts are still 30–50% lower than what management has provided so far. We all know Dr. Su is the queen of sandbagging, so adjust accordingly. This is the first time I heard her tell analysts directly on the Q&A that their estimates are too low. 6. Institutions are accepting that agentic AI is going to have a severe shortage and that it will also take time for TSMC to scale. The largest CPU ramp will be #1 AMD, then #2 NVIDIA from Q4 2026. So institutions have some months to play around and see what the Federal Reserve is saying. TSMC is scaling 11-15 2nm Fabs at the fastest pace since its inception btw!!! 7. TSMC does not really disclose customers' allocation, so most of us are projecting from available data, which makes growth 10x more difficult to predict. However, AMD is TSMC’s third largest customer and is on track to become the second largest. The largest CoWoS allocation increase for 2027 is AMD, per a Morgan Stanley note. 8. Just because I gave out my personal PT does not mean it will get there. It may be higher or lower. I just know that even at $800 it would be trading at 30–35x FY2027 P/E, which is reasonable for triple-digit growth, in my opinion. A few potential rate hikes could lower forward P/E a bit, but they will not be able to stop the J-curve quarters and years from AMD over the next 3–5 years. 9. Yield is getting pretty attractive for fixed income folks, so semiconductor stocks do have competition. The demand for capital is so high right now that yields rise monthly to build out data centers. That is the reality most of us have to accept. It is funny that the folks lending the capital to hyperscalers, AI labs, and neoclouds have some of the most bearish takes on the AI industrial revolution. 10. Yield is getting pretty attractive for fixed income folks, hence Semi stocks do have competition. The demand for capital is so high right now, that yield rises weekly/monthly to build out Data Centers. It is the reality that most of us have to accept. It is funny that the folks that are lending the capital for Hyperscalers , AI Labs and Neoclouds have some of the most bearish takes on AI Industrial revolution:)) 9. We just had one of the biggest deleveraging events in semis that blew up many accounts from the U.S. to South Korea. 10. People call me crazy in 2024-2025 to say AMD may hit $620 (my old personal PT) by end of 2026, we werent really that far off $620 2 months ago:)). Again, I been covering AMD for years, and Agentic AI demand is going to pump CPU demand by 50-100x vs 2024-2025. We are only 6 months in, and Agents are now using 14x more tokens than Human. Keep in mind, we are only 3-5 agents on average across all Enterprises. We are just so early. Medium-Long Term, Hyperscalers, AI labs and Enterprises will scale to hundreds and thousands of Agents doing tasks 24/7 using various AI Models from cheap to most expensive. People called me crazy in 2024–2025 for saying AMD may hit $620 (my old personal PT) by the end of 2026. We weren’t really that far off $620 two months ago. Alright, that is it. Not Financial Advice! DYOR!
0:59

$AMD | Folks are asking why there is a massive disconnect here between $800 and $465 🧵 May be this should help, and most subscribers and followers already know. 1. I don't offer Financial Advice! 2. We have so many individual and institutional bears who made millions selling AI bubble fear porn and think they are smarter than the best CEOs in the world. Hence most semiconductor stocks are trading at 15–25x forward P/E even with massive growth, AMD included. I actually believe this is healthy, keeping valuations in check to give new investors better return. Would u prefer to invest at 15-25x fwd P/E or 30-50x fwd P/E? 3. Guidance is issued by the quarter, so we will only know officially in November 2026 for that biggest inflection in Q4. 4. Institutions are rotating back and forth between value stocks and growth stocks; out of AI, into AI stocks; one week risk-on, another week risk-off. They are trading much more frequently now. 5. Most AMD analysts are becoming more and more bullish, but projections and forecasts are still 30–50% lower than what management has provided so far. We all know Dr. Su is the queen of sandbagging, so adjust accordingly. This is the first time I heard her tell analysts directly on the Q&A that their estimates are too low. 6. Institutions are accepting that agentic AI is going to have a severe shortage and that it will also take time for TSMC to scale. The largest CPU ramp will be #1 AMD, then #2 NVIDIA from Q4 2026. So institutions have some months to play around and see what the Federal Reserve is saying. TSMC is scaling 11-15 2nm Fabs at the fastest pace since its inception btw!!! 7. TSMC does not really disclose customers' allocation, so most of us are projecting from available data, which makes growth 10x more difficult to predict. However, AMD is TSMC’s third largest customer and is on track to become the second largest. The largest CoWoS allocation increase for 2027 is AMD, per a Morgan Stanley note. 8. Just because I gave out my personal PT does not mean it will get there. It may be higher or lower. I just know that even at $800 it would be trading at 30–35x FY2027 P/E, which is reasonable for triple-digit growth, in my opinion. A few potential rate hikes could lower forward P/E a bit, but they will not be able to stop the J-curve quarters and years from AMD over the next 3–5 years. 9. Yield is getting pretty attractive for fixed income folks, so semiconductor stocks do have competition. The demand for capital is so high right now that yields rise monthly to build out data centers. That is the reality most of us have to accept. It is funny that the folks lending the capital to hyperscalers, AI labs, and neoclouds have some of the most bearish takes on the AI industrial revolution. 10. Yield is getting pretty attractive for fixed income folks, hence Semi stocks do have competition. The demand for capital is so high right now, that yield rises weekly/monthly to build out Data Centers. It is the reality that most of us have to accept. It is funny that the folks that are lending the capital for Hyperscalers , AI Labs and Neoclouds have some of the most bearish takes on AI Industrial revolution:)) 9. We just had one of the biggest deleveraging events in semis that blew up many accounts from the U.S. to South Korea. 10. People call me crazy in 2024-2025 to say AMD may hit $620 (my old personal PT) by end of 2026, we werent really that far off $620 2 months ago:)). Again, I been covering AMD for years, and Agentic AI demand is going to pump CPU demand by 50-100x vs 2024-2025. We are only 6 months in, and Agents are now using 14x more tokens than Human. Keep in mind, we are only 3-5 agents on average across all Enterprises. We are just so early. Medium-Long Term, Hyperscalers, AI labs and Enterprises will scale to hundreds and thousands of Agents doing tasks 24/7 using various AI Models from cheap to most expensive. People called me crazy in 2024–2025 for saying AMD may hit $620 (my old personal PT) by the end of 2026. We weren’t really that far off $620 two months ago. Alright, that is it. Not Financial Advice! DYOR!

Mike

51,084 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

These 2 Stocks are Next to Soar "The move will be SUDDEN and VIOLENT" $AMD $AXP $CELH $ELF $CAKE $NOW $CRM
42:57

These 2 Stocks are Next to Soar "The move will be SUDDEN and VIOLENT" $AMD $AXP $CELH $ELF $CAKE $NOW $CRM

Jeremy Lefebvre

43,648 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

$NVDA, $AMD, $AVGO and custom hyperscaler chips will compete for years in the AI race but nearly all will still depend on $TSM to manufacture their chips. The quarter was excellent but the market wanted another major estimate reset and instead got strong revenue guidance alongside softer margins, higher capex and fewer near-term catalysts.
0:21

$NVDA, $AMD, $AVGO and custom hyperscaler chips will compete for years in the AI race but nearly all will still depend on $TSM to manufacture their chips. The quarter was excellent but the market wanted another major estimate reset and instead got strong revenue guidance alongside softer margins, higher capex and fewer near-term catalysts.

Shay Boloor

97,389 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

AMD CEO Lisa Su says AMD's data center business will double this year and grow over 100% again next year "Next year, we're also forecasting over 100% growth" "We are actually seeing the demand being higher than supply" "We see our business growing over 80% next year, which is a very significant number" Su says AMD just landed its first racks at Anthropic, OpenAI, Microsoft, Oracle and Meta, and guided data center revenue up 50% quarter on quarter into Q4 ($AMD $MSFT $ORCL $META) Data center bans are on the ballot, and AMD says demand still outruns supply via Squawk on the Street, featuring Lisa Su
0:55

AMD CEO Lisa Su says AMD's data center business will double this year and grow over 100% again next year "Next year, we're also forecasting over 100% growth" "We are actually seeing the demand being higher than supply" "We see our business growing over 80% next year, which is a very significant number" Su says AMD just landed its first racks at Anthropic, OpenAI, Microsoft, Oracle and Meta, and guided data center revenue up 50% quarter on quarter into Q4 ($AMD $MSFT $ORCL $META) Data center bans are on the ballot, and AMD says demand still outruns supply via Squawk on the Street, featuring Lisa Su

StockMarket.News

67,569 просмотров • 7 дней назад

Elon says that even if $TSMC and Samsung — his suppliers — hit their best-case chip production scenarios, it still won’t be enough. And that $TSLA will be forced to build its own chip fab. Meanwhile, $AMD just projected the AI accelerator market will exceed $1T by 2030. It really looks like there will never be enough chips for everyone.
1:13

Elon says that even if $TSMC and Samsung — his suppliers — hit their best-case chip production scenarios, it still won’t be enough. And that $TSLA will be forced to build its own chip fab. Meanwhile, $AMD just projected the AI accelerator market will exceed $1T by 2030. It really looks like there will never be enough chips for everyone.

Daniel

61,800 просмотров • 1 год назад

They have been trying to shake us out of $AMD for months now 💯 We're not going anywhere In this video I will cover why I'm still LONG on $AMD and what I plan to do going into next week 🎬👇
1:42

They have been trying to shake us out of $AMD for months now 💯 We're not going anywhere In this video I will cover why I'm still LONG on $AMD and what I plan to do going into next week 🎬👇

Peter DiCarlo

45,132 просмотров • 1 год назад

$AMD is easily a $1,200 stock IMO| CPUs TAM 🧵 Not Financial Advice! DYOR! In this thread, I want to discuss the actual TAM for CPUs data center for just 2026, where many are giving different ranges, where I don't agree with. I will explain in detail why I disagree with these research firms and financial analysts using Math. And this thread should not be treated as Financial Advice. I'm just explaining my research and thought process so we can have a discussion. In 2024/2025, I gave out $620 PT for FY2026 was too conservative for AMD potential. At the time, It was early and many were just laughing, that PT was unrealistic and the AI world is run on GPUs only. Today, most of these folks are laughing with me. That is ok, I dont offer financial advice, and I do not need everyone to agree with me. I respect other opinions. If you enjoy this kind of thread, slap the like/repost/bookmark. If you want to support my work further and gain more in-depth analysis, consider subscribe! In early 2026, hyperscalers, enterprises, and OEMs are scrambling as Intel and AMD server CPUs are largely sold out for the year, with prices jumping 10–20% and lead times stretching from weeks to months (or longer for certain SKUs). What was once a GPU dominated story has flipped: the shift to explosive Agentic AI with its multi-step reasoning loops, tool calling, multi-agent orchestration, real-time data movement, and reinforcement learning, is dramatically tightening CPU:GPU ratios from the old training-era 1:4–8 all the way to 1:1 to 5:1 or even CPU-heavy configurations. CEOs across NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and public companies have been sounding the alarm on CNBC, Bloomberg, and earnings calls. CPUs are “cool again,” and in many agentic deployments they are becoming the new bottleneck alongside (or even ahead of) GPUs and custom ASICs. In 2025, roughly 12-15m AI GPUs + AI ASICs GPUs shipped, and is expect to be 15-20m units by 2026, where it suggesting Training demand is not going away. The actual TAM is structural, multiplicative demand that has already forced AMD to double its long-term server CPU TAM forecast to >$120 billion by 2030 (>35% CAGR), with Dr. Lisa Su noting Q2 2026 server CPU sales expected to surge 70%+ year-over-year and demand “far exceeding expectations.” At the same time, AMD’s secured 30–40% share of TSMC’s initial 2nm capacity (behind only Apple’s >50%) positions it to ramp Zen 6-based EPYC Venice exactly when this agentic wave hits hardest but even that aggressive five-fab 2nm expansion (with plans scaling toward 11 total advanced facilities) cannot instantly close the gap in the near-term. Supply constraints on wafers, advanced packaging, and power are compounding the squeeze, just as hyperscalers forward-buy and lock in long-term deals. 1. The actual potential TAM Various sources and institutions are giving $50-$160-$200B CPUs TAM toward 2030, and i disagree, where supply is severely behind vs Demand by at least 2-3 years or even longer by some estimates. The actual TAM will probably be 15-20m for FY2026. The typical average selling price from low to high end is $5,000 to $15,000, but due to rising memory, and different inflationary pressures on Semi, it would be more logical to think between $7,000-17,000. A. CPU:GPU Ratio at 1:1 A basic calucation at mid range =12,000 x 15-20m CPUs= $180-$240B TAM B. CPU:GPU Ratio at 5:1 = $12,000 x 75m-100m CPUs= $900B-$1.2T TAM Of course TSMC cannot even supply 20% of this massive inflection TAM in 2026. But do we think of Demand for TAM or Supply for TAM? Hence we are seeing massive 2nm Ramp from TSMC for $AMD. IMO, conservatively, I would take down 15-20% on 1:1 or $135-$192B TAM for just 2026. Im not even talking about 2030. We are just months into this, it is impossible to estimate Cagr atm, but this is 1-5 agents running tasks, I wrote a thread on 24/7 autonomous agents thread, where companies could use 50-250 agents to run tasks for them 24/7. It would require a different structural CPU:GPU to bring down the cost of token as well as handling the Orchestration bottleneck. GPUs would be useless and sit idle waiting for CPU due to highly CPU-intensive nature. The cost per Million tokens must come down more rapidly for this 50-250 autonomous agents to work, otherwise the token cost would be too enormous. Helios Rack is estimated to bring inference cost down to $0.0003-$0.0005/M tokens with 18 EPYC Venices along with 72 MI455x and other chips+ Components. A heavier or CPUs dense rack would bring down inference cost further. EPYC Verano(2027 gen 7 AI-optimized) is expected to drive inference costs meaningfully lower than the Venice baseline likely to the $0.00002–$0.00025 per million tokens range (or even sub-$0.00015 in highly optimized agentic/batch workloads). Verano have higher core counts than Venice, LPDDR5X SOCAMM2 memory support, more AI optimized and Next-Gen rack density & efficiency. 2. $AMD secured at least 30-40% of TSMC 2nm capacity and Memory from Samsung through 2028-2030. 2 2nm fabs are entering ramping phase toward 60-65k wafers per months and 5 dedicated 2nm fabs entering mass production/ramp in 2026. Will link sub threads below if you are interest for full detail. Apple is reported to secure 50%+ 2nm capacity for Iphone 18 and Mac chips and AMD secured at least 30-40% capacity while $NVDA $AVGO $ARM $AMZN $GOOGL and others are on 3nm. This broader aggressive ramp from TSMC to target up to 11 fabs is to address $AMD massive growth ahead. Where $ARM is facing massive CPUs supply constraints as they have to compete with other Mega Cap players on 3nm allocation. And $INTC is also facing supply constraints for data center CPUs and PC per management with lead times extrended to longer than 12 weeks. Dr. Su is aiming for higher than 50%+ Market share, and I believe it is achievable in 2026 or 2027 as AMD has the strongest CPUs offerings. Dr. Su did not want to take advantage of the shortage and she said during the Q1 earning call, AMD is prioritizing Units shipped while guiding margin to be inching 60%. If Jensen were in charge, I'm sure margin would be 70-75% in this kind of severe CPUs shortage condition. But that is not how Dr. Su operates for more than a decade. She wants most market share. So we will see it in revenue growth, but as TSMC ramps faster and faster, AMD Operating and FCF margin will massively improve vs prior decade. A significantly higher margin profile than before. 3. How I came up with $1,200 withint 12-18 months? At $1,200/ share, that would be around $2 Trillion MC. I expect FY2027 revenue to be $124-$144B where data center revenue dominates overall revenue. AI GPUs: I will stick to the lowest end so show u that I'm conservative at $18B for each GW vs $NVDA Rubin is $30B+ (most likely Helios Rack in the $20B+ due to memory price rising). We know deals with OpenAI and Meta are around 12GW and additional multi-customers at multi-GW scale were hinted and will be revealed as we get to July 22-23 2026 Advancing AI event. For now I will conservatively add a bit more to this model. (3-6GW Helios Rack Range) EPYC Venice is reported to be in $15,000-$20,000. However large customers will likely to enjoy $10-$12k discount. I expect AMD to be able to ramp 7m EPYC Venice for entire 2026 and 3-4m of EPYC Verano(higher price than Venice). If we take an average selling price of $10,000 to be on the conservative side. Take down another 30% to be even more conservative on projection. I like to be conservative. That would be ~ 7m EPYC CPUs(Venice + Verano) for FY2027 or 583,000 units per month or 15,000 additional 2nm wafers per month which is completely reasonable for current TSMC Ramp, and I may be too conservative here. EPYC Verano and MI500 series will also be on 2nm. AI GPUs: 3GW x $18B= $54B EPYC CPUs: $10k x 7m CPUs= $70B = Data center revenue alone is $124B Other segments= probably in the $20-$25B FY 2027. FY2027 revenue = $124-$149B At 7m EPYC CPUs for entire 2027, that would be more than 50% market share when we comp it to availability from supply side, not from total Demand. It is possible that TSMC could significantly ramp even more capacity in 2027, so we will see. Metric Q1 2026 FY2027 Gross Margin 55-56% 60-62% Operating Margin 25-26% 32-35% Net Income Margin ~22% 26-30% FCF Margin 25% 28-30% At $124-$149B Revenue FY 2027 Net Income would be $32-$44B EPS would be $20-$27 (GAAP) Non-GAAP would be $25-$31 At $1,200 a share or $2T valuation that would be: 13.4-16x Price to Sales (P/S) 38-48 P/E At this kind of growth of AI SuperCycle, I think it is very reasonable valuation. If we use today at $406/share or $661B MC: 2027 P/S = 4.4x-5.3x 2027 P/E = 13x-16x Is AMD today expensive or cheap to you? Above is already a very conservative where I trimmed 20-30% of doable units. Meaning, there could be upside if TSMC is able to ramp meaningfully like they are planning. Conclusion: A $1,200 per share valuation IMO for AMD in FY2027 is not expensive at all; it is, in fact, conservative when viewed against the structural explosion in agentic AI demand we have mapped out. With server CPU TAM potentially scaling into the $100–$200B+ range in just CPU:GPU 1:1 Ratio for just 2026. AMD positioned to capture 50%+ share thanks to its 2nm TSMC allocation advantage and full-stack leadership, the company could realistically deliver $124–149B in total revenue and $25–$31+ non-GAAP EPS. At those levels, $1,200 implies a 2027 P/E = 13x-16x. Entirely reasonable for a company that will have become the clear Inference Queen (and in many workloads the preferred) AI infrastructure provider, with operating margins expanding above 30% and tens of billions in high-margin rack-scale AI revenue. Dr. Lisa Su was right presciently so about the Agentic AI inflection all the way back to her early 2022–2023 commentary on the coming shift from pure training to inference and orchestration-heavy workloads. While the broader market only fully woke up to this in 2026 when she doubled AMD’s long-term server CPU TAM forecast to >$120B by 2030 (with >35% CAGR), Dr. Su and her team have consistently positioned the company at the center of the CPU renaissance. The explosive demand we are seeing today, sold-out lines, rising ASPs, and hyperscalers forward-buying entire gigawatts of Helios-class systems is exactly the outcome she forecasted years ago. Not Financial Advice! DYOR!
13:03

$AMD is easily a $1,200 stock IMO| CPUs TAM 🧵 Not Financial Advice! DYOR! In this thread, I want to discuss the actual TAM for CPUs data center for just 2026, where many are giving different ranges, where I don't agree with. I will explain in detail why I disagree with these research firms and financial analysts using Math. And this thread should not be treated as Financial Advice. I'm just explaining my research and thought process so we can have a discussion. In 2024/2025, I gave out $620 PT for FY2026 was too conservative for AMD potential. At the time, It was early and many were just laughing, that PT was unrealistic and the AI world is run on GPUs only. Today, most of these folks are laughing with me. That is ok, I dont offer financial advice, and I do not need everyone to agree with me. I respect other opinions. If you enjoy this kind of thread, slap the like/repost/bookmark. If you want to support my work further and gain more in-depth analysis, consider subscribe! In early 2026, hyperscalers, enterprises, and OEMs are scrambling as Intel and AMD server CPUs are largely sold out for the year, with prices jumping 10–20% and lead times stretching from weeks to months (or longer for certain SKUs). What was once a GPU dominated story has flipped: the shift to explosive Agentic AI with its multi-step reasoning loops, tool calling, multi-agent orchestration, real-time data movement, and reinforcement learning, is dramatically tightening CPU:GPU ratios from the old training-era 1:4–8 all the way to 1:1 to 5:1 or even CPU-heavy configurations. CEOs across NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and public companies have been sounding the alarm on CNBC, Bloomberg, and earnings calls. CPUs are “cool again,” and in many agentic deployments they are becoming the new bottleneck alongside (or even ahead of) GPUs and custom ASICs. In 2025, roughly 12-15m AI GPUs + AI ASICs GPUs shipped, and is expect to be 15-20m units by 2026, where it suggesting Training demand is not going away. The actual TAM is structural, multiplicative demand that has already forced AMD to double its long-term server CPU TAM forecast to >$120 billion by 2030 (>35% CAGR), with Dr. Lisa Su noting Q2 2026 server CPU sales expected to surge 70%+ year-over-year and demand “far exceeding expectations.” At the same time, AMD’s secured 30–40% share of TSMC’s initial 2nm capacity (behind only Apple’s >50%) positions it to ramp Zen 6-based EPYC Venice exactly when this agentic wave hits hardest but even that aggressive five-fab 2nm expansion (with plans scaling toward 11 total advanced facilities) cannot instantly close the gap in the near-term. Supply constraints on wafers, advanced packaging, and power are compounding the squeeze, just as hyperscalers forward-buy and lock in long-term deals. 1. The actual potential TAM Various sources and institutions are giving $50-$160-$200B CPUs TAM toward 2030, and i disagree, where supply is severely behind vs Demand by at least 2-3 years or even longer by some estimates. The actual TAM will probably be 15-20m for FY2026. The typical average selling price from low to high end is $5,000 to $15,000, but due to rising memory, and different inflationary pressures on Semi, it would be more logical to think between $7,000-17,000. A. CPU:GPU Ratio at 1:1 A basic calucation at mid range =12,000 x 15-20m CPUs= $180-$240B TAM B. CPU:GPU Ratio at 5:1 = $12,000 x 75m-100m CPUs= $900B-$1.2T TAM Of course TSMC cannot even supply 20% of this massive inflection TAM in 2026. But do we think of Demand for TAM or Supply for TAM? Hence we are seeing massive 2nm Ramp from TSMC for $AMD. IMO, conservatively, I would take down 15-20% on 1:1 or $135-$192B TAM for just 2026. Im not even talking about 2030. We are just months into this, it is impossible to estimate Cagr atm, but this is 1-5 agents running tasks, I wrote a thread on 24/7 autonomous agents thread, where companies could use 50-250 agents to run tasks for them 24/7. It would require a different structural CPU:GPU to bring down the cost of token as well as handling the Orchestration bottleneck. GPUs would be useless and sit idle waiting for CPU due to highly CPU-intensive nature. The cost per Million tokens must come down more rapidly for this 50-250 autonomous agents to work, otherwise the token cost would be too enormous. Helios Rack is estimated to bring inference cost down to $0.0003-$0.0005/M tokens with 18 EPYC Venices along with 72 MI455x and other chips+ Components. A heavier or CPUs dense rack would bring down inference cost further. EPYC Verano(2027 gen 7 AI-optimized) is expected to drive inference costs meaningfully lower than the Venice baseline likely to the $0.00002–$0.00025 per million tokens range (or even sub-$0.00015 in highly optimized agentic/batch workloads). Verano have higher core counts than Venice, LPDDR5X SOCAMM2 memory support, more AI optimized and Next-Gen rack density & efficiency. 2. $AMD secured at least 30-40% of TSMC 2nm capacity and Memory from Samsung through 2028-2030. 2 2nm fabs are entering ramping phase toward 60-65k wafers per months and 5 dedicated 2nm fabs entering mass production/ramp in 2026. Will link sub threads below if you are interest for full detail. Apple is reported to secure 50%+ 2nm capacity for Iphone 18 and Mac chips and AMD secured at least 30-40% capacity while $NVDA $AVGO $ARM $AMZN $GOOGL and others are on 3nm. This broader aggressive ramp from TSMC to target up to 11 fabs is to address $AMD massive growth ahead. Where $ARM is facing massive CPUs supply constraints as they have to compete with other Mega Cap players on 3nm allocation. And $INTC is also facing supply constraints for data center CPUs and PC per management with lead times extrended to longer than 12 weeks. Dr. Su is aiming for higher than 50%+ Market share, and I believe it is achievable in 2026 or 2027 as AMD has the strongest CPUs offerings. Dr. Su did not want to take advantage of the shortage and she said during the Q1 earning call, AMD is prioritizing Units shipped while guiding margin to be inching 60%. If Jensen were in charge, I'm sure margin would be 70-75% in this kind of severe CPUs shortage condition. But that is not how Dr. Su operates for more than a decade. She wants most market share. So we will see it in revenue growth, but as TSMC ramps faster and faster, AMD Operating and FCF margin will massively improve vs prior decade. A significantly higher margin profile than before. 3. How I came up with $1,200 withint 12-18 months? At $1,200/ share, that would be around $2 Trillion MC. I expect FY2027 revenue to be $124-$144B where data center revenue dominates overall revenue. AI GPUs: I will stick to the lowest end so show u that I'm conservative at $18B for each GW vs $NVDA Rubin is $30B+ (most likely Helios Rack in the $20B+ due to memory price rising). We know deals with OpenAI and Meta are around 12GW and additional multi-customers at multi-GW scale were hinted and will be revealed as we get to July 22-23 2026 Advancing AI event. For now I will conservatively add a bit more to this model. (3-6GW Helios Rack Range) EPYC Venice is reported to be in $15,000-$20,000. However large customers will likely to enjoy $10-$12k discount. I expect AMD to be able to ramp 7m EPYC Venice for entire 2026 and 3-4m of EPYC Verano(higher price than Venice). If we take an average selling price of $10,000 to be on the conservative side. Take down another 30% to be even more conservative on projection. I like to be conservative. That would be ~ 7m EPYC CPUs(Venice + Verano) for FY2027 or 583,000 units per month or 15,000 additional 2nm wafers per month which is completely reasonable for current TSMC Ramp, and I may be too conservative here. EPYC Verano and MI500 series will also be on 2nm. AI GPUs: 3GW x $18B= $54B EPYC CPUs: $10k x 7m CPUs= $70B = Data center revenue alone is $124B Other segments= probably in the $20-$25B FY 2027. FY2027 revenue = $124-$149B At 7m EPYC CPUs for entire 2027, that would be more than 50% market share when we comp it to availability from supply side, not from total Demand. It is possible that TSMC could significantly ramp even more capacity in 2027, so we will see. Metric Q1 2026 FY2027 Gross Margin 55-56% 60-62% Operating Margin 25-26% 32-35% Net Income Margin ~22% 26-30% FCF Margin 25% 28-30% At $124-$149B Revenue FY 2027 Net Income would be $32-$44B EPS would be $20-$27 (GAAP) Non-GAAP would be $25-$31 At $1,200 a share or $2T valuation that would be: 13.4-16x Price to Sales (P/S) 38-48 P/E At this kind of growth of AI SuperCycle, I think it is very reasonable valuation. If we use today at $406/share or $661B MC: 2027 P/S = 4.4x-5.3x 2027 P/E = 13x-16x Is AMD today expensive or cheap to you? Above is already a very conservative where I trimmed 20-30% of doable units. Meaning, there could be upside if TSMC is able to ramp meaningfully like they are planning. Conclusion: A $1,200 per share valuation IMO for AMD in FY2027 is not expensive at all; it is, in fact, conservative when viewed against the structural explosion in agentic AI demand we have mapped out. With server CPU TAM potentially scaling into the $100–$200B+ range in just CPU:GPU 1:1 Ratio for just 2026. AMD positioned to capture 50%+ share thanks to its 2nm TSMC allocation advantage and full-stack leadership, the company could realistically deliver $124–149B in total revenue and $25–$31+ non-GAAP EPS. At those levels, $1,200 implies a 2027 P/E = 13x-16x. Entirely reasonable for a company that will have become the clear Inference Queen (and in many workloads the preferred) AI infrastructure provider, with operating margins expanding above 30% and tens of billions in high-margin rack-scale AI revenue. Dr. Lisa Su was right presciently so about the Agentic AI inflection all the way back to her early 2022–2023 commentary on the coming shift from pure training to inference and orchestration-heavy workloads. While the broader market only fully woke up to this in 2026 when she doubled AMD’s long-term server CPU TAM forecast to >$120B by 2030 (with >35% CAGR), Dr. Su and her team have consistently positioned the company at the center of the CPU renaissance. The explosive demand we are seeing today, sold-out lines, rising ASPs, and hyperscalers forward-buying entire gigawatts of Helios-class systems is exactly the outcome she forecasted years ago. Not Financial Advice! DYOR!

Mike

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