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American troops were left in a completely vulnerable position in this war. Below is the image of an Iranian missile hitting the American base on the 30th. These men should never have been deployed to bases so close to Iran. But shamelessly, there are still people saying that it...

149,858 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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Respect according to Trump: when hegemony becomes a mirage By Brainless Partisans 🏴‍☠️☢️☣️🪆 "We are a country that is more respected than we have ever been respected before." This is Donald Trump's solemn proclamation about the war against Iran. A phrase that sounds like a declaration of imperial self-satisfaction... except that on the ground in the Middle East, "respect" increasingly resembles a mixture of anxiety, mistrust, and strategic calculation. Because if we listen to the Gulf capitals, the problem is no longer Iran. The problem is America. First, there is the question of protection. For decades, the oil monarchies have lived under the American security umbrella. Military bases, a fleet in the Gulf, missile defense: the implicit contract was simple, Washington protects, the oil monarchies align their interests. But the current war has cracked that pact. Iranian strikes against facilities in the region, including sites linked to the American military presence, have been a brutal reminder that these states remain exposed despite the American arsenal. As a result, even the most loyal allies are beginning to have doubts. According to several analyses cited by Foreign Policy, the Gulf monarchies are "questioning Washington's ability and willingness to guarantee their security" after the Iranian attacks. Diplomatic translation: the American bodyguard may not be as reliable as its press conference claims. Then there is the geopolitical reality that no one is saying too loudly: this war increasingly looks like a war waged by Israel with US military power. The Gulf states do not want to participate in a prolonged campaign against Tehran or serve as a platform for escalation. Several governments have made it clear that they do not want their territory or airspace to be used to attack Iran. In other words: thanks for the military bases, but you're on your own when it comes to war. Finally, there is the factor that is most damaging to the American image: the unintended demonstration of vulnerability. Iran obviously cannot compete with American military power. But it can strike where it hurts: scattered bases, energy infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz. Since the escalation began, drone and missile attacks and the disruption of maritime traffic have shown that even the world's most powerful military empire cannot completely secure the region. It is precisely this type of asymmetric warfare that erodes the influence of a superpower. Iran does not need to win militarily; it only needs to demonstrate that American hegemony is no longer unchallenged. And this is where Trump's statement becomes almost comical. Because in the history of international relations, respect is not proclaimed. It is observed. When allies start looking for assurances elsewhere, towards China, Russia, or regional arrangements, that is not respect. It is a survival strategy in an international system where the Pax Americana increasingly resembles a museum relic. Trump believes that war proves American power. In much of the Middle East, it proves something else: that even empires have cracks. And that sometimes, the adversary does not even need to widen them. It is enough that they are visible.

Brainless Partisans 🏴‍☠️☢️☣️🪆

19,501 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

Vulnerable Oil Pipelines and the UAE’s Existential Delusion If the problem is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the event of a conflict, I would say that these ideas only last until the conflict actually begins. Once it starts, both the terminals and the oil pipelines will be bombed. The Gulf countries have not yet understood that they need to reach some kind of arrangement among themselves. And the United States should encourage this, focusing on regional stability. It has become clear that U.S military control of the region no longer exists. The bases only serve to waste money and expose the Arab countries to confrontation with Iran. The Emirates are living in an existential delusion, believing they can return to previous levels of prosperity while maintaining a confrontational stance toward Iran. The UAE is face-to-face with Iran. After what happened in this war, who will invest in Dubai without the certainty that the country has reached an understanding with Iran? The illusion of American protection no longer exists. The same applies to all Gulf countries. Both the appeasement of Iranian-backed militias and the reduction of the American military presence around Iran are political decisions that need to mature through greater dialogue, something that will not be achieved with the confrontational tone the Emirates have maintained. On the contrary, the Emirates are deluded and will see their economy face serious difficulties if they continue down this path. Carrying out persuasion through military encirclement with bases against a missile power is no longer viable today. Decades ago, those bases might have received the occasional imprecise Scud. Today, they face showers of missiles and drones. These bases are no longer practical in the current era, and the same applies to bases in Asia surrounding China, or NATO bases surrounding Russia. The new reality is simple: only underground bases supported by a vast ecosystem will survive future conflicts. The Cold War strategy of containment has proven to be a failure in modern wars. It merely exposes troops to grave danger without delivering real security. The entire model must be completely rethought. The war with Iran has demonstrated that military bases now require a minimum safe distance from adversary missile and drone threats, and even then, they must be built underground. Surface bases have become liabilities rather than assets.

Patricia Marins

217,601 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Iran Loses Frigate and Yak-130 and Decides to Deploy Jet-Powered Kamikaze Drones An Iranian frigate was sunk near Sri Lanka, nearly 4,000 km from the theater of operations. Another Iranian catamaran was hit by a missile launched from a drone and headed for repairs. Tehran was heavily bombed today in a day that, according to Iranian authorities, 900 civilians were killed. Iran also reported downing another drone, this time a Heron. However, an F-35I shot down a YAK-130, with both pilots ejecting safely. Facing these recent losses, Iran decided to deploy two jet-powered drones: the Arash-2 and the Hadid-110. Both are stealth drones that reach more than 450 km/h, with the Hadid exceeding 500 km/h. The targets of these drones were more high-cost radars existing in the region, with the Arash-2 in this version achieving hundreds of kilometers in range. Iran maintains an average of 300–500 drones launched per day. While these numbers have been decreasing, the drone models seem to have greater explosive payload and to be more modern. Despite all the surveillance and attacks that the US and Israel carry out, there is a limit to the ability to inhibit Iranian capabilities due to various tactical, geographical, and armament diversity factors. Today Iran is still launching hundreds of drones and between 30–50 missiles, a level that should stabilize or stay slightly below that. However, the big issue that will not be resolved is the reopening of Hormuz and relief for the markets. Iran still possesses around 5,000 mines, which if dumped in Hormuz will seal the closure for long periods. As I have been saying, it is not the capacity for destruction that dictates the rules in this type of war, but the asymmetric nuances of the theater, giving Iran the advantage. For example, if Iran starts mining the Strait tomorrow, oil prices should exceed $100 and gas $70/MWh. This control of the Strait will not be taken from Iran anytime soon, since the American navy still remains 700 km from the Iranian coast out of fear of anti-ship missiles. I even have the impression that Iran does not want to sink any American ship, as this would cause outrage in America and could escalate the war, even increasing support for the government. I say this because the American fleet is within range of Iranian anti-ship missiles even at 750 km. The true enemy of the US-Israel coalition today is not Iran, but the global economy and the political pressure both internal and from the Gulf countries. Can the US-Israel sustain this pressure for much longer?

Patricia Marins

367,304 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce