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🇺🇸🇮🇷⚡— Americans beating their chests over sinking a single Iranian warship returning from joint drills with India are missing the point. Iran's strategy for defending itself against a US war of aggression does not depend on these large ships, it depends on 1000s of small boats with anti-ship missiles...

23,298 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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🇮🇷🇮🇱| A little more to understand... My opinion: The war may end in a few days or last a lot longer—all depending on whether or not the US joins Israel. Israel is not able to fight against Iran for much longer; its interceptors have a certain capability threshold, and reports already suggest it is rationing its interceptor missiles, and we've seen how 12-17 interceptors were launched, yet Iranian missiles still made an impact. It all comes down to whether the US is willing to go to war with Iran or not; it's likely they will if you consider Trump's administrative behavior since he took office. But honestly, if they are smart, they will not. - A little about Iran's missile situation: Israel says it's conducting operations in northwestern and western Iran to prevent the reactivation of missile bases in Tabriz, Kermanshah, and Khorramabad. A significant portion of the Israeli Air Force is now focused on these 3 sites to prevent further missile launches from those locations. This suggests that the sites they claim they destroyed did not suffer strategic damage, and the destroyed hangars were of minimal value. As a result, Israel continuously carries out operations and remains engaged to prevent Iran from reactivating its capabilities in the west. If these 3 regions are abandoned, Israel will move on to target other strategic sites. These 3 missile bases are among Iran's key assets. The missiles are intact and untouched, it's the launchers that are affected, and they can easily be reactivated, but it's difficult under continuous attacks. Other missile bases in the south remain untouched and have so far not been used, as they are probably being reserved for strikes against the US. Missile launches are mainly launched from the center and north of Iran, some from the western regions as well. The reason for limited and isolated launches these past few days has several explanations, mainly that Iran is testing to recognize new patterns everytime a serious attack is carried out, as Israel continuously changes its defensive behavior to prevent Iran's intelligence from learning it; thus, isolated launches, followed by a bigger, deadlier, and more accurate attack with 30 launches as we saw today.

Arya - آریا

55,523 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

What's happening in the Strait of Hormuz Every escalation of the military-political situation around Iran is accompanied by numerous rumors and speculations about the blocking of shipping in the strategically important for the global economy Strait of Hormuz. Yesterday, the Iranian IRGC Navy broadcast a radio message about a complete ban on shipping, and the US Department of Transportation called for leaving the strait and adjacent waters. Later, the IRGC softened the rhetoric, stating that the strait was closed only for Americans. According to the latest reports, passage through the strait is allowed only for Iranian and Chinese naval ships. Such statements need to be confirmed by actions, and probably the first step on the path to a blockade was the defeat of the oil tanker SKYLIGHT, which was heading from an Iraqi port under the Palau flag. According to various reports, the ship was attacked by drones or missiles, and a fire broke out on board. At the moment, the tanker is anchored in the Persian Gulf near the coast of the Sultanate of Oman. It is reported that the crew was evacuated, as evidenced by the presence of a rescue boat nearby, from which footage of the fire was taken. It's worth noting that this tanker is on the US sanctions lists for transporting Iranian oil, but this does not mean it belongs to Iran. It's a classic "shadow" ship, operating under a "convenient" flag in the interests of whoever is currently paying. When reading reports on maritime events, it's worth remembering that this information is written and disseminated by journalists and bloggers, many of whom have only seen the sea in pictures, and none of whom have ever worked a single day on a ship. The Strait of Hormuz is not a road where you can put up a barrier, nor is it a field that can be carefully mined. The width of the Strait of Hormuz at its narrowest point reaches 40 kilometers, and at its widest point it is almost 100 kilometers. Of course, these figures are not so high given the depths, and theoretically, Iran has the military-technical capabilities to, if not stop, then seriously damage international shipping. However, it's highly doubtful that under the current circumstances, the leadership of the Islamic Republic will decide on radical actions, such as those that went down in history under the name "Tanker War". The lessons of those events showed that attacks and seizures of international ships could not stop traffic and did not collapse the global market, but they did turn many previously neutral states against Iran. Including the USSR, which was forced to send a fleet of warships to the Persian Gulf to combat the newly emerged piracy. We would also like to ask our bellicose authors to be less gloating and rejoicing at the news of burning and sinking ships. On each of these ships, sailors are burning and sinking - innocent citizens of Russia, Ukraine, India, the Philippines... and many other peaceful men and women, forced to work at sea to support their families. A reserve sailor, specially for the project wargonzo UPD: Iran does not intend to block the Strait of Hormuz at the moment, said the head of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Abbas Arakchi, to Al Jazeera. Join WarGonzo

🇷🇺 WARGONZO -ULYANA STRIZH 🇷🇺

20,363 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

ATTENTION! Iran Ballistic Missile capacity (SITREP)—how much longer can they sustain these barrages? It’s just past 0200 local in Tel Aviv time now. Iran has over 3,000 ballistic missiles but cannot launch all simultaneously (they’ve already launched 8 waves). Current evidence leans toward a maximum of around 180-200 missiles launched at once in recent attacks. It seems very likely that infrastructure limits simultaneous launches to far below 3,000. Iran possesses a significant ballistic missile arsenal, estimated at over 3,000 missiles, making it the largest in the Middle East. However, the capacity to launch all these missiles at once is constrained by logistical and strategic factors, including the number of launch platforms and the nature of their deployment. Recent military actions show Iran launching up to 180-200 missiles in a single strike. These numbers are significantly lower than 3,000, indicating a limit to simultaneous launch capacity. Iran's infrastructure and launch capacity, including transporter-erector-launchers (TELs) and underground facilities, does not support launching 3,000 missiles at once. The focus on sequential or ripple-fire systems further supports this limitation. My assessment is Iran is getting toward the end of their ballistic missile capacity (for a variety of reasons). They likely still retain hundreds but their ability to launch very large numbers is hindered by infrastructure destruction over the past several days as well as launch capabilities. That said, DO NOT underestimate Iran’s ability to do as much as humanly possible to attempt to destroy Israel. That has been their stated goal for years and until there is regime change to someone more aligned with Israel and the west, expect this war to continue. Iran's ballistic missile program has been a focal point of regional and international security discussions for many years, particularly given its implications for Middle Eastern stability and global non-proliferation efforts. Iran's ballistic missile inventory comprises a diverse array of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) and medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs). One notable development is an automated missile launch system revealed since 2020, capable of positioning up to five fully fueled ballistic missiles on an underground railcar for sequential ripple-fire through a single vertical shaft. This is what Israel is facing now. Barrages of dozens of these simultaneously and my assessment is more to come. Strategic and Logistical Considerations Launching 3,000 missiles simultaneously would require an unprecedented number of launch platforms and coordination, likely exceeding Iran's current capabilities. Strategically, such an action would deplete Iran's entire arsenal, leaving it vulnerable to counterattacks. Our Israeli allies need to prepare for another round of massive amounts of missiles. Iran—you better get ready for a strategic counteroffensive. The Israelis have planned this war for a long time and my sense is that they are far more ready than you, particularly their population. The Iranian people DO NOT want to suffer any longer under their brutal tyrannical regime. This war will end with a clear victor. Donald J. Trump JD Vance DNI Tulsi Gabbard

General Mike Flynn

724,748 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce