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🇺🇸 🇨🇳 America's debt doom loop has already started spinning, and there's no exit built into it. Economist Chris Martenson lays out the mechanism in a single line: "The more they borrow, the more the rates go up. The more the rates go up, the more the interest payments... show more

Mario Nawfal

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42,663 просмотров • 3 дней назад •via X (Twitter)

Новости и политика Финансы

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Bill Ackman went on Money Rehab and explained why rates are the quiet risk nobody's pricing in. The government is running a deficit and financing it with treasury bonds. Meanwhile companies that used to buy back their own stock are issuing debt to fund the AI infrastructure boom. "There's a huge demand for credit at a time when the government itself is also issuing more and more of its own bonds." All that supply has to get absorbed by investors. That pushes rates up. And rates going up is one of the two things he's watching.

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BLACKROCK SAYS THE REAL FED STORY ISN'T INTEREST RATES Most investors are asking: "Will rates go up or down?" BlackRock is asking a different question: "Will the Fed keep supporting markets with liquidity?" That may end up being more important for stocks and Bitcoin than the next rate cut.

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🇺🇸 The buffer between America and a real energy crisis is now measured in weeks. PhD economist Chris Martenson ran the numbers, and the math is unforgiving. He lays out the tiers of escalation and where the US actually stands: "Going to war with China, that would be an emergency. So that's one level." By his calculation, the cushion has thinned to a razor's edge. The only real question left, Martenson says, is whether the country has two weeks or fourteen days of breathing room. Chris Martenson

🇺🇸 The buffer between America and a real energy crisis is now measured in weeks. PhD economist Chris Martenson ran the numbers, and the math is unforgiving. He lays out the tiers of escalation and where the US actually stands: "Going to war with China, that would be an emergency. So that's one level." By his calculation, the cushion has thinned to a razor's edge. The only real question left, Martenson says, is whether the country has two weeks or fourteen days of breathing room. Chris Martenson

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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The Pentagon already war-gamed this. It lost. Economic researcher Chris Martenson recalls a simulation run inside the Pentagon years ago, where a red team colonel threw out the playbook. No communications. Motorcycles carrying handwritten notes. He beat the U.S. so badly they reset the entire exercise and declared that wasn't how it was supposed to go: "There's nothing we can really do militarily against Iran at this stage." Forty years of hardened sites and careful preparation sit on the other side of this, with America's oil reserves draining on a clock nobody can pause. The simulation got reset back then. This one doesn't. Chris Martenson

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🇺🇸 A tiny dip in debt during 2008 nearly collapsed the entire financial system, and that was barely a flinch. Economist Chris Martenson says losing Gulf energy would gut every buyer of U.S. debt at once. "We were hours away from complete meltdown of our system simply because credit markets started to go down a tiny bit instead of up." If your biggest customers are drowning, nobody's left to buy the $10 trillion you need to roll. Chris Martenson

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🇺🇸 A supermax crude carrier is burning in the strait, and ship owners still won't move. PhD economist Chris Martenson breaks down why the gulf between the US and Iran may be impossible to bridge right now: "That's a really profound disconnect between those two positions." The standoff is brutally simple. One side wants the strait open today, the other wants tolls, terms, and a 60-day clock. And while they dig in, Martenson says the sea stays closed and the tankers stay put. Chris Martenson

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🇺🇸 Even if you add up every barrel in America, Canada and Venezuela, it's still only 30% of the world's oil. Economist Chris Martenson says the energy independence story falls apart on the numbers, because the Middle East sits on more than half of global reserves. And reserves in the ground aren't the same as fuel in a tank. Turning them into flowing barrels takes decades and hundreds of billions of dollars, which is why no amount of AI or drilling at home changes who really holds the prize. Chris Martenson

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