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🇺🇸🇮🇷 America's long range missiles are running out, and the fallback would put U.S. pilots over Iran, one shootdown away from the next hostage crisis Larry Johnson walked through the missile ledger, and it just keeps getting worse. Rebuilding the Tomahawk stockpile alone runs to 2031 per the Telegraph,...

357,441 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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🇺🇸 The U.S. fired more than 800 Tomahawk missiles in the Iran war, at $2.6 million apiece, and it takes nearly 4 years to replenish a single production run. Here is the full picture: -Nearly half of U.S. Patriot interceptors gone -Between 190-290 THAAD interceptors fired ($15.5 million each) -Up to 80% of long-range ground-launched precision missiles expended And the Pentagon is now scrambling to put the defense industry on wartime footing, with companies that make thermostats and electric bus drives suddenly being asked to manufacture missile components… The replacement timeline is the part nobody is talking about: 4-5 years per weapons system, and that is if everything goes perfectly, which it never does. A CSIS war game simulation found that in a U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan, the U.S. would run out of long-range anti-ship missiles in 3-7 days and air-to-surface missiles within a month. The Heritage Foundation found the same scenario leads to "systemic operational failure" by day 120. The Iran war is not going to deplete the U.S. to the point of losing, nobody is saying that, but it has revealed something that adversaries can see clearly: America burned through years of precision munitions stockpile in 6 weeks against a mid-tier military power. A country that can regenerate combat power quickly is dangerous to fight, a country that visibly cannot is one that invites aggression. China is watching, and they just launched their most extensive military drills around Taiwan in years. Source: CBC News

Mario Nawfal

25,398 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

JUST IN: A junior airwoman stood on a tarmac at sunset somewhere in the CENTCOM theatre, looked up at the Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, and said with a sly smile: “More bombs, sir, and bigger bombs.” Pete Hegseth told the Pentagon press corps today that he will “happily oblige her.” Pete did not tell her where the bombs come from. Every precision munition in the American arsenal contains guidance components built with rare earth magnets processed in China. The country that controls 90 percent of the world’s rare earth refining has not agreed to resupply the United States. The defence stockpile has approximately two months remaining. The US has fired 2,400 Patriot interceptors in 31 days and manufactures 650 per year. The airwoman wants bigger bombs. The supply chain that builds them runs through Beijing, where Pakistan’s foreign minister is sitting right now negotiating the terms under which China might release the minerals needed to manufacture what she is asking for. Hegseth’s briefing was a masterclass in wartime morale projection. He quoted troops saying the fight is “long overdue” and “we need to address it for our kids.” He stressed the interactions were “not rehearsed or scripted.” He revealed that three Air Force captains shot down weeks ago by Kuwaiti friendly fire were reactivated and dropped bombs over Tehran last night. He announced 200 dynamic strikes in the past 24 hours, the lowest Iranian launch rate since the war began, and the destruction of another IRGC command bunker. He said the coming days will be “decisive” and that Iran has “almost nothing they can militarily do.” Then he said something about Russia and China that revealed more in its silence than in its words: “We know EXACTLY what they are or are not doing. We don’t have to air publicly what it is.” He cannot air it because airing it would reveal the paradox that defines this war. Russia provided the satellite imagery that helped Iran destroy an E-3 Sentry at Prince Sultan Air Base. China provided the BeiDou navigation and ammonium perchlorate propellant inside the missile that did it. China also provided the neodymium magnets inside the American interceptor that tried to stop it. Acknowledging this publicly would mean admitting that the US military is fighting a war in which both the weapons it fires and the weapons fired against it are manufactured using components from the same two countries Hegseth just refused to discuss. “If Iran is wise, they will cut a deal,” Hegseth said. “President Trump doesn’t bluff. You can ask Khamenei about that.” He is right that Khamenei is no longer available for comment. But the deal Hegseth is demanding requires Iran to negotiate with a regime that has been decapitated, decentralised, and stripped of its primary negotiator. Israel killed Ali Larijani. The IRGC operates autonomously across regional commands. There is no single Iranian authority with the power to accept terms. The US is demanding surrender from an entity that no longer has a centralised command structure capable of surrendering. The war has destroyed its own off-ramp. Meanwhile, Hegseth confirmed “many more vessels are flowing through the Strait of Hormuz today.” Hours earlier, the Kuwaiti supertanker AL SALMI was burning 31 nautical miles from Dubai. The vessels that are “flowing through” are doing so under an IRGC permission regime that charges two million dollars per transit in yuan. More vessels flowing does not mean the strait is open. It means Iran is collecting more tolls. The airwoman wants bigger bombs. The bombs require Chinese minerals. The minerals require a deal with China. The deal requires ending the war. And the Secretary of Defense just promised to intensify it. The gap between morale and materiel is where wars go to die.

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

57,928 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🚨🇮🇷🇨🇳If America Can’t Handle Iranian Missiles, It’s Not Ready for China In just the first 16 days of war against Iran, the United States expended nearly 40% of its THAAD interceptors. If America’s most advanced air defenses are struggling against Iran—a regional power with a fraction of China’s capabilities—there is no plausible scenario in which the US is ready for a showdown with Beijing. The Chinese Arsenal The People’s Liberation Army operates the world’s largest missile inventory, backed by a rapid-action doctrine designed to dismantle U.S. bases and infrastructure in the early stages of conflict. Unlike Iran’s Kheibar Shikan and Sejjil missiles, China’s DF-27 anti-ship ballistic missile and DF-17 hypersonic glide vehicle offer advanced mid-air maneuverability and sustained hypersonic speeds. With an estimated range of 8,000 kilometers, the DF-27 places U.S. naval installations at Pearl Harbor and Everett, Washington within striking distance—allowing China to threaten American assets without deploying a single ship. Strategic Implications According to Dr. Andrew Erickson of the US Naval War College, China is the first nation to operationalize an armed ICBM. These capabilities could cripple U.S. operational effectiveness across East Asia and complicate the defense of American interests in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines in the event of armed conflict. Depleted Defenses Even as Patriot and THAAD struggle against less sophisticated Iranian missiles, Western analysts warn that a large-scale Chinese attack could overwhelm U.S. defenses by depleting interceptor inventories entirely. With THAAD replenishment not expected until April 2027, the fragility of current stockpiles is increasingly difficult to ignore. The Central Question If US air defenses are depleted in the Middle East after just over two weeks of fighting Iran, how will they withstand a Chinese arsenal that dwarfs Iran’s—particularly when the DF-27 can already reach American soil?

NewRulesGeopolitics

137,298 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🚨🇺🇸🇨🇳 China's Decisive Home-Field Advantage Over the U.S. The Iran War demonstrated American military capability — but also revealed a critical vulnerability. Modern wars, even against weaker adversaries, burn through missiles at an extraordinary rate. But Iran and China are not remotely comparable. China has spent decades preparing specifically for a war against American naval power. Beijing would not rely on speedboats or mines. It would attempt a coordinated campaign designed to keep U.S. carrier strike groups far from the fight — and make intervention around Taiwan or the South China Sea costly from the opening hours of the war. 🔸 China's DF-21D "carrier killer" ballistic missile has an estimated range of 1,500 kilometers. 🔸 The longer-range DF-26 can reach much farther and threatens Guam — a critical U.S. logistics and air hub. 🔸 China would also fight with submarines, long-range bombers, drones, satellites, electronic warfare, and cyberattacks — feats Iran could not sustain. 🔸 Chinese aircraft, missile forces, and naval units would operate near home territory with shorter supply lines and land-based support. 🔸 U.S. forces would need to project power across long distances while protecting bases in Guam, Okinawa, and Japan — all of which could face missile attack in the opening phase of a war. 🔸 Logistics often decide wars. Between fuel, spare parts, runway repairs, and missile reloads, the winning side needs to perfect its ability to support its fighters and hardware at all times. The core issue is endurance. U.S. forces would be heavily dependent on scattered bases throughout the region, requiring fighter jets and bombers to travel long distances. China is built to fight close to home, while the U.S. must sustain power Meanwhile. Missile threats and logistics constraints would slow American response and strain its ability to maintain tempo. Without major adaptation, geography and preparation give Beijing a decisive edge in a prolonged conflict.

NewRulesGeopolitics

21,899 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce