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An apartment complex bought four years ago at 90,000 dollars a unit is now on the table at 8,000. That is below what the land alone is worth. The building sits 100 percent vacant. And here is why someone would still buy it. Fixing it runs 20 to 30,000...

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Jeffrey P. Snider

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31,203 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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Jeffrey P. Snider2 ay önce

If you want to see The Four Economic Regimes, and How to Position Your Portfolio for Each One, sign up here 👇

Yourenext1187🏴‍☠️ profil fotoğrafı
Yourenext1187🏴‍☠️2 ay önce

Because the land price is still inflated & propped up by data center buying. As if watching Covid get turned into blatant profiteering & tyranny. Now watching these assholes bastardize Prof Werner’s BoJ solution is infuriating. “A park worth more than California”- Pof Werner “BoJ should’ve bought the land & shifted credit creation back to small banks & away from consumer demand inflation” How was Repo in winter of 19 Jeff? Seeing pictures yet?

Menckenist profil fotoğrafı
Menckenist2 ay önce

One can finance any apartment building in America. Every single one, no matter the occupancy.

Kennythecarp profil fotoğrafı
Kennythecarp2 ay önce

Is the guy in the video Mr. Roper?

SilverSpiritJack profil fotoğrafı
SilverSpiritJack2 ay önce

This is why I sleep at 94% silver. Be the buyer when someone else has to sell.

Used to run like wildfire profil fotoğrafı
Used to run like wildfire2 ay önce

umm... the land value is far over-valued as well. cities need to wise up or they will all go bankrupt

🪙 Gold Finger 🪙 Precious Metals Guru profil fotoğrafı
🪙 Gold Finger 🪙 Precious Metals Guru2 ay önce

Just buy #gold and #silver...

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G-unit-1984 Orwellian2 ay önce

But Wait!!! The Housing Shortage!!!!

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Nearly half of America's economic growth now comes from ONE thing. It is not jobs, housing, or shopping. And your "safe" index fund is now betting on it... Here is what it is (and what it actually means for your investments): AI data centers. A data center is a giant building full of computers. They power the AI tools everyone is suddenly using. Building them costs a staggering amount of money. And a handful of tech giants are spending like never before. Five of the largest could spend around 750 billion dollars this year. That category of spending jumped 72 percent in a single year. Measured against the whole economy, that spending tops the dot-com peak. It has become the biggest single engine of the economy. Strip it out, and growth almost disappears. Now here is why this reaches your account: You probably own an index fund somewhere. Maybe inside a 401k you rarely check. It is supposed to spread your money across 500 companies. That is what makes it feel safe. You were told to buy the whole market and relax. But seven giant tech names now dominate that fund. Together they are more than a third of its value. At the dot-com peak, the top names were about 15 percent. So your diversified fund is really one giant bet on AI. And the cracks are already showing. Google's parent just burned more cash than it made. The first time that has happened since it went public. The profit gains are piling up in just a few names too. The rest of the market is barely growing its profits. The danger is not that AI suddenly fails. The danger is that everyone owns the same bet. When one giant stumbles, they often fall together. And a fund that felt safe drops all at once. That is the retirement money you were counting on. And you never chose this bet on purpose. This is how hidden risk actually works. It hides inside the word diversified. The comfort is the trap. Most people never look under the hood of their fund. They see 500 names and feel protected. Rules-based investing looks at what you actually own. It measures the risk instead of trusting the label. Then it spreads your money by design, not by accident. It does not care how popular a trade has become. That is exactly what Surmount was built for. Automated strategies that manage real risk, not comforting labels. So when the crowded trade unwinds, you are not trapped in it. You are already positioned:
3:01

Nearly half of America's economic growth now comes from ONE thing. It is not jobs, housing, or shopping. And your "safe" index fund is now betting on it... Here is what it is (and what it actually means for your investments): AI data centers. A data center is a giant building full of computers. They power the AI tools everyone is suddenly using. Building them costs a staggering amount of money. And a handful of tech giants are spending like never before. Five of the largest could spend around 750 billion dollars this year. That category of spending jumped 72 percent in a single year. Measured against the whole economy, that spending tops the dot-com peak. It has become the biggest single engine of the economy. Strip it out, and growth almost disappears. Now here is why this reaches your account: You probably own an index fund somewhere. Maybe inside a 401k you rarely check. It is supposed to spread your money across 500 companies. That is what makes it feel safe. You were told to buy the whole market and relax. But seven giant tech names now dominate that fund. Together they are more than a third of its value. At the dot-com peak, the top names were about 15 percent. So your diversified fund is really one giant bet on AI. And the cracks are already showing. Google's parent just burned more cash than it made. The first time that has happened since it went public. The profit gains are piling up in just a few names too. The rest of the market is barely growing its profits. The danger is not that AI suddenly fails. The danger is that everyone owns the same bet. When one giant stumbles, they often fall together. And a fund that felt safe drops all at once. That is the retirement money you were counting on. And you never chose this bet on purpose. This is how hidden risk actually works. It hides inside the word diversified. The comfort is the trap. Most people never look under the hood of their fund. They see 500 names and feel protected. Rules-based investing looks at what you actually own. It measures the risk instead of trusting the label. Then it spreads your money by design, not by accident. It does not care how popular a trade has become. That is exactly what Surmount was built for. Automated strategies that manage real risk, not comforting labels. So when the crowded trade unwinds, you are not trapped in it. You are already positioned:

Surmount

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The creator of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) put a number on the AI build that should stop every infra investor cold. A cluster of a million GPUs runs at roughly 10-20% utilization (Save this). Kim Jung-ho spent thirty years building what feeds the GPU, and his claim is that the GPU is barely working. Here is what is actually happening. Every time a model generates output, the data has to be read out of memory, computed, and written back. The read and the write swallow almost the entire cycle. While that data moves, the GPU does nothing. It sits there, fully powered, fully paid for, waiting. By Kim's estimate the memory is doing only about 30 percent of the work it needs to do. The processor idles the rest. So a million installed GPUs run at 10 to 20 percent. You are not compute constrained. You are memory constrained, and the expensive part is standing around. Adding more GPUs does not fix this. It gives you more processors starving for the same data. Here is the part that decides the next decade. Memory can grow. When a cell cannot shrink any further, you stack it into a high-rise, layer on layer. A GPU cannot be stacked. It runs too hot and needs a cooler bolted to its back, so the one move that rescues memory is closed to the processor. The thing that can keep stacking compounds. The thing that cannot plateaus. The marginal dollar in an AI build now buys more by fixing the memory path than by bolting on another idle GPU. Which is why the companies that control memory bandwidth and supply are not suppliers to the AI trade. They are the AI trade.
0:50

The creator of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) put a number on the AI build that should stop every infra investor cold. A cluster of a million GPUs runs at roughly 10-20% utilization (Save this). Kim Jung-ho spent thirty years building what feeds the GPU, and his claim is that the GPU is barely working. Here is what is actually happening. Every time a model generates output, the data has to be read out of memory, computed, and written back. The read and the write swallow almost the entire cycle. While that data moves, the GPU does nothing. It sits there, fully powered, fully paid for, waiting. By Kim's estimate the memory is doing only about 30 percent of the work it needs to do. The processor idles the rest. So a million installed GPUs run at 10 to 20 percent. You are not compute constrained. You are memory constrained, and the expensive part is standing around. Adding more GPUs does not fix this. It gives you more processors starving for the same data. Here is the part that decides the next decade. Memory can grow. When a cell cannot shrink any further, you stack it into a high-rise, layer on layer. A GPU cannot be stacked. It runs too hot and needs a cooler bolted to its back, so the one move that rescues memory is closed to the processor. The thing that can keep stacking compounds. The thing that cannot plateaus. The marginal dollar in an AI build now buys more by fixing the memory path than by bolting on another idle GPU. Which is why the companies that control memory bandwidth and supply are not suppliers to the AI trade. They are the AI trade.

Fireside Alpha

38,370 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Joe Blitzstein, Harvard statistics professor: "Jane Street pays $600K for people who can do one thing in their head: compute the expected value of a bet before they take it. I teach it free at Harvard. skip it and you're the casino's favorite customer." this free lecture holds the entire "edge" every casino and every fund quietly runs on, and the man teaching it put his whole Harvard probability course online for free, where millions have watched it. at the board it's simple. expected value is every outcome times its probability, added up into one number that tells you what a bet is worth on average. the roulette wheel sits at minus 5.26 percent, so every dollar you push across the table is worth about 94 cents back to you and the rest to the house. it never changes and it never has to. that's the whole "edge", minus the marketing. expectation goes back to Pascal, Fermat and Huygens in the 1650s. it has been free for almost 400 years. same point as my casino piece above: the house wins because its number is positive and yours is negative, trade after trade. the calculation is free and every fund runs it on every position. what they cannot sell you is the honesty to compute your real edge instead of the one you wish you had. that is the number that actually decides who goes broke, and no course can make you face it.
50:22

Joe Blitzstein, Harvard statistics professor: "Jane Street pays $600K for people who can do one thing in their head: compute the expected value of a bet before they take it. I teach it free at Harvard. skip it and you're the casino's favorite customer." this free lecture holds the entire "edge" every casino and every fund quietly runs on, and the man teaching it put his whole Harvard probability course online for free, where millions have watched it. at the board it's simple. expected value is every outcome times its probability, added up into one number that tells you what a bet is worth on average. the roulette wheel sits at minus 5.26 percent, so every dollar you push across the table is worth about 94 cents back to you and the rest to the house. it never changes and it never has to. that's the whole "edge", minus the marketing. expectation goes back to Pascal, Fermat and Huygens in the 1650s. it has been free for almost 400 years. same point as my casino piece above: the house wins because its number is positive and yours is negative, trade after trade. the calculation is free and every fund runs it on every position. what they cannot sell you is the honesty to compute your real edge instead of the one you wish you had. that is the number that actually decides who goes broke, and no course can make you face it.

Voltex

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All the sneak disses between Jey Uso The Usos and Cam'ron and Ma$e on today's It Is What It Is that led to Uso coming over the table for Cam ! 🤯 You are gonna want to watch the whole segment on YouTube right now!!!
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All the sneak disses between Jey Uso The Usos and Cam'ron and Ma$e on today's It Is What It Is that led to Uso coming over the table for Cam ! 🤯 You are gonna want to watch the whole segment on YouTube right now!!!

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I turned Grok Bot into one giant AI brain and gave it life and death over every agent under it. Its only incentive: make money or die. 290% overnight. The thing really did not want to be switched off. $1,000 went in. $3,900 came out. 15 hours, and I slept through most of it. One of the agents it hired is not allowed to trade at all. That one is the reason the rest are still alive. Every prompt and the whole build is in the post below ↓ Save it. The wiring is the whole trick, and it reads in four minutes.
0:51

I turned Grok Bot into one giant AI brain and gave it life and death over every agent under it. Its only incentive: make money or die. 290% overnight. The thing really did not want to be switched off. $1,000 went in. $3,900 came out. 15 hours, and I slept through most of it. One of the agents it hired is not allowed to trade at all. That one is the reason the rest are still alive. Every prompt and the whole build is in the post below ↓ Save it. The wiring is the whole trick, and it reads in four minutes.

cvxv666

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You have 100 dollars and you want 200. Betting red one dollar at a time, your chance is one in 33,171. Betting the whole 100 on a single spin, it is 47.4 percent. The careful version is fifteen thousand times worse. This is also the arithmetic of your trading account, and it means almost everything you have been taught about managing risk is, in the strict mathematical sense, a method for losing more reliably. An MIT professor works this out on a blackboard in a lecture on random walks. The result is called gambler's ruin. Two and a half points of disadvantage is nothing on one spin. But a dollar at a time you are not making one spin, you are making hundreds, and the edge gets a fresh attempt at you on every one of them. It was never the size of the disadvantage. It is the number of times you agree to face it. One hundred on red, once: 47.4 percent. Twenty dollar bets: 37.3 percent. Five dollar bets: 11.1 percent. One dollar bets: 0.003 percent. Mathematicians call the right answer bold play. It was proved optimal for unfavourable games in 1965. It is not a strategy for winning. It is the least ruinous way to play a game you should not be in. If your edge after spread and fees is negative, and for most active retail accounts it is, then your position sizing rule is not protecting you. Risking one percent per trade is the one dollar bet. It arrives at zero with near certainty, just politely, over a longer period, with a spreadsheet. Discipline does not beat a negative edge. It schedules it. All of this reverses if you have a real edge. Then small and frequent is correct and bold play is madness. So the only question that has ever mattered is whether you have one, and the number of people certain they do has never resembled the number who do. Your broker does not need you to be wrong. It needs you to be frequent.
1:16:13

You have 100 dollars and you want 200. Betting red one dollar at a time, your chance is one in 33,171. Betting the whole 100 on a single spin, it is 47.4 percent. The careful version is fifteen thousand times worse. This is also the arithmetic of your trading account, and it means almost everything you have been taught about managing risk is, in the strict mathematical sense, a method for losing more reliably. An MIT professor works this out on a blackboard in a lecture on random walks. The result is called gambler's ruin. Two and a half points of disadvantage is nothing on one spin. But a dollar at a time you are not making one spin, you are making hundreds, and the edge gets a fresh attempt at you on every one of them. It was never the size of the disadvantage. It is the number of times you agree to face it. One hundred on red, once: 47.4 percent. Twenty dollar bets: 37.3 percent. Five dollar bets: 11.1 percent. One dollar bets: 0.003 percent. Mathematicians call the right answer bold play. It was proved optimal for unfavourable games in 1965. It is not a strategy for winning. It is the least ruinous way to play a game you should not be in. If your edge after spread and fees is negative, and for most active retail accounts it is, then your position sizing rule is not protecting you. Risking one percent per trade is the one dollar bet. It arrives at zero with near certainty, just politely, over a longer period, with a spreadsheet. Discipline does not beat a negative edge. It schedules it. All of this reverses if you have a real edge. Then small and frequent is correct and bold play is madness. So the only question that has ever mattered is whether you have one, and the number of people certain they do has never resembled the number who do. Your broker does not need you to be wrong. It needs you to be frequent.

Verax

85,294 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Every Wall Street giant that owns an AI data center is suddenly looking for a buyer. And NONE of them want to be the last one holding it. Three of them made their move in the last two weeks: Vantage Data Centers is exploring an exit. Its owners, Silver Lake and DigitalBridge, are weighing a listing at around $100 billion, or a sale, or a stake sale. It would be the largest data center IPO ever done. Three days earlier, CyrusOne started the same process. KKR and Global Infrastructure Partners met Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, and the banks pitched for roles on a listing that could come as early as 2027. Last month, Switch hired Goldman and JPMorgan to take it public at close to $80 billion including debt, possibly by the fourth quarter. Three different companies moved inside the same 14 days, and the same handful of investment banks took every call. And these are the exact same firms that BOUGHT these companies off the public market four years ago. Between June 2021 and early 2022, private equity took the data center industry private. Blackstone bought QTS. KKR and Global Infrastructure Partners took CyrusOne private in a deal worth about $15 billion. DigitalBridge and IFM took Switch private for about $11 billion. Together those deals ran past $35 billion. By 2023 there were only two pure-play data center companies left on the public market. The logic at the time was that data centers burn cash for years before they pay, and public shareholders hate that. But private money was patient, and private money could wait. Four years later, the AI boom arrived and every one of those buildings became a gold mine. So follow this: Switch went private at about $11 billion in 2022. Its owners now want close to $80 billion for it. That is roughly 7x, in four years, on the same buildings. And DigitalBridge sits on both sides of this. It owns a piece of Vantage and it took Switch private. It is now looking for the door on BOTH. The question now is who is supposed to buy. There is no bigger private buyer left to sell to. These are already the largest infrastructure funds on Earth, and the price tags now run to $100 billion. The only pocket deep enough is the public market, which means anyone with a brokerage account or an index fund. The people who bought low from the public are now organizing to sell high back to the public. And they are doing it while telling everyone the buildout is just getting started. KKR raised a record $19.2 billion for its newest infrastructure fund this month, and in June launched a separate company with over $10 billion committed to finance more construction. So one hand raises fresh billions to build more data centers, and the other hand sells the finished ones to whoever will take them. None of this proves anyone thinks the boom is ending. Selling into strength is what these firms are paid to do, and every one of these deals is early stage and might never happen. But the timing tells you something: The most sophisticated infrastructure investors alive spent four years accumulating these assets in private, and all decided in the same two weeks that now is the moment to find someone else to own them. Four years ago these firms decided the public market was too impatient to own data centers. Now they want the public market to own them again, at 7x the price. Quite suspicious.
1:52

Every Wall Street giant that owns an AI data center is suddenly looking for a buyer. And NONE of them want to be the last one holding it. Three of them made their move in the last two weeks: Vantage Data Centers is exploring an exit. Its owners, Silver Lake and DigitalBridge, are weighing a listing at around $100 billion, or a sale, or a stake sale. It would be the largest data center IPO ever done. Three days earlier, CyrusOne started the same process. KKR and Global Infrastructure Partners met Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, and the banks pitched for roles on a listing that could come as early as 2027. Last month, Switch hired Goldman and JPMorgan to take it public at close to $80 billion including debt, possibly by the fourth quarter. Three different companies moved inside the same 14 days, and the same handful of investment banks took every call. And these are the exact same firms that BOUGHT these companies off the public market four years ago. Between June 2021 and early 2022, private equity took the data center industry private. Blackstone bought QTS. KKR and Global Infrastructure Partners took CyrusOne private in a deal worth about $15 billion. DigitalBridge and IFM took Switch private for about $11 billion. Together those deals ran past $35 billion. By 2023 there were only two pure-play data center companies left on the public market. The logic at the time was that data centers burn cash for years before they pay, and public shareholders hate that. But private money was patient, and private money could wait. Four years later, the AI boom arrived and every one of those buildings became a gold mine. So follow this: Switch went private at about $11 billion in 2022. Its owners now want close to $80 billion for it. That is roughly 7x, in four years, on the same buildings. And DigitalBridge sits on both sides of this. It owns a piece of Vantage and it took Switch private. It is now looking for the door on BOTH. The question now is who is supposed to buy. There is no bigger private buyer left to sell to. These are already the largest infrastructure funds on Earth, and the price tags now run to $100 billion. The only pocket deep enough is the public market, which means anyone with a brokerage account or an index fund. The people who bought low from the public are now organizing to sell high back to the public. And they are doing it while telling everyone the buildout is just getting started. KKR raised a record $19.2 billion for its newest infrastructure fund this month, and in June launched a separate company with over $10 billion committed to finance more construction. So one hand raises fresh billions to build more data centers, and the other hand sells the finished ones to whoever will take them. None of this proves anyone thinks the boom is ending. Selling into strength is what these firms are paid to do, and every one of these deals is early stage and might never happen. But the timing tells you something: The most sophisticated infrastructure investors alive spent four years accumulating these assets in private, and all decided in the same two weeks that now is the moment to find someone else to own them. Four years ago these firms decided the public market was too impatient to own data centers. Now they want the public market to own them again, at 7x the price. Quite suspicious.

Ricardo

71,544 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

For 30 years, Japan fought one enemy above all others. The deflationary mindset. Three decades of a culture that hoards cash and waits, while nothing moves and nothing grows. So now the central bank is doing something deliberate. It is choosing to look reckless with the currency. And that quietly flips the whole game. If you sit in yen, you are already losing. Cash is taking a hit, and cash is never supposed to take a hit. That is the part most people miss. When the bank makes cash risky on purpose, the safe asset becomes the dangerous one. Sit still and you lose. That is the signal being sent, and it is aimed straight at anyone still hiding in cash.
6:52

For 30 years, Japan fought one enemy above all others. The deflationary mindset. Three decades of a culture that hoards cash and waits, while nothing moves and nothing grows. So now the central bank is doing something deliberate. It is choosing to look reckless with the currency. And that quietly flips the whole game. If you sit in yen, you are already losing. Cash is taking a hit, and cash is never supposed to take a hit. That is the part most people miss. When the bank makes cash risky on purpose, the safe asset becomes the dangerous one. Sit still and you lose. That is the signal being sent, and it is aimed straight at anyone still hiding in cash.

Jeffrey P. Snider

31,931 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Nine percent of Americans have confidence in Congress. Sixty-seven percent have confidence in small business. That gap is the whole story, and it has nothing to do with left and right. Look at who Americans still trust. Small business at 67. The military at 61. The police at 45. Every one of them builds something or protects someone. A small business makes a product and dies if nobody wants it. A soldier defends a country. A cop shows up when you call. They get judged on whether the job actually got done. Now look at the bottom. Congress at 9. Television news at 14. Newspapers at 17. One defrauds you. The other lies to you about it. Neither builds anything. Neither protects anyone. And neither one is ever punished for being wrong. That is not an opinion. Here is what Congress presides over. The GAO estimates the federal government loses between 233 and 521 billion dollars every single year to fraud. Not waste. Fraud. Improper payments have hit roughly 3 trillion dollars since 2003. Last year alone was 186 billion. Congress has not balanced a budget since 2001. Nine percent is not cynicism. It is an accurate grade. Gallup started asking this question in 1973, during Watergate, with a president on his way to resigning. Congress scored 42 percent that year. In 2014 it hit 7, the lowest reading Gallup has ever recorded for any American institution. Watergate was a scandal. This is a business model. The press sits right next to them for the same reason. Thirty-four percent of Americans say they have no trust in the news media at all. Twenty-eight percent say they have a great deal or a fair amount. Americans have not lost faith in their country. They still trust the man who fixes the engine. The sergeant. The woman who owns the shop. They stopped trusting the people who take from them and lie about where it went. That is not cynicism. That is a country that can still tell the difference.
0:28

Nine percent of Americans have confidence in Congress. Sixty-seven percent have confidence in small business. That gap is the whole story, and it has nothing to do with left and right. Look at who Americans still trust. Small business at 67. The military at 61. The police at 45. Every one of them builds something or protects someone. A small business makes a product and dies if nobody wants it. A soldier defends a country. A cop shows up when you call. They get judged on whether the job actually got done. Now look at the bottom. Congress at 9. Television news at 14. Newspapers at 17. One defrauds you. The other lies to you about it. Neither builds anything. Neither protects anyone. And neither one is ever punished for being wrong. That is not an opinion. Here is what Congress presides over. The GAO estimates the federal government loses between 233 and 521 billion dollars every single year to fraud. Not waste. Fraud. Improper payments have hit roughly 3 trillion dollars since 2003. Last year alone was 186 billion. Congress has not balanced a budget since 2001. Nine percent is not cynicism. It is an accurate grade. Gallup started asking this question in 1973, during Watergate, with a president on his way to resigning. Congress scored 42 percent that year. In 2014 it hit 7, the lowest reading Gallup has ever recorded for any American institution. Watergate was a scandal. This is a business model. The press sits right next to them for the same reason. Thirty-four percent of Americans say they have no trust in the news media at all. Twenty-eight percent say they have a great deal or a fair amount. Americans have not lost faith in their country. They still trust the man who fixes the engine. The sergeant. The woman who owns the shop. They stopped trusting the people who take from them and lie about where it went. That is not cynicism. That is a country that can still tell the difference.

Sovey

68,327 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

"We are not a creedal people. We have no Nicaea, no list of clauses you must recite to be counted among us. And yet in 1995 the leadership put the doctrine of the family on a single page, signed their names beneath it, and that one page has become our shibboleth. You know the word. At the fords of the Jordan the men of Gilead caught the fleeing Ephraimites by a single sound. Say shibboleth. The ones who could not shape the sh, who said sibboleth, were known in a heartbeat for what they were. A shibboleth is the syllable you cannot fake, the confession that reveals which bank of the river you are standing on. But here is the strange thing about ours, and it took me years to see it. Every other shibboleth in history was a word. A password. Something you said. Ours cannot be said at all. We have no creed to recite, so the test could never live in the mouth. It had to go somewhere the mouth cannot reach. It had to become a life. You do not pronounce this one. You build it, and the building shows. It is a man and a woman who took the covenant and then kept it, through the years and the dullness and the nights they wanted to leave and stayed, for time and for all eternity, while the whole world assured them the vow was a formality and the exits were always open. It is a house with too many children in it by the world's arithmetic, the family that refused to treat a child as a luxury to be deferred and took it instead as the entire point, the cord carried forward into the next generation, the one most of the world has now decided it cannot afford. It is the clean life. The thousand small refusals the world finds quaint or insane. The body kept. The appetites bridled. The Sabbath honored. The long sobriety of a people who say no to a hundred easy things on a Tuesday when no one is watching. These are not three rules. They are the welding itself, done with a body, in time. And none of it can be faked at the ford. You can sign the Proclamation in an afternoon. You cannot fake a marriage of forty years, or a table that loud, or a life that disciplined. The signature is easy. The life is the shibboleth. And so is the nerve to say it out loud, to stand up in the open and say that family is between a man and a woman, plainly, publicly, and where it costs you to say it, and to refuse to file the edge off the word because you would rather be liked, or because you have weighed the persecution and decided your own comfort is worth more than the truth. Anyone can affirm the parts the world still applauds."
1:33

"We are not a creedal people. We have no Nicaea, no list of clauses you must recite to be counted among us. And yet in 1995 the leadership put the doctrine of the family on a single page, signed their names beneath it, and that one page has become our shibboleth. You know the word. At the fords of the Jordan the men of Gilead caught the fleeing Ephraimites by a single sound. Say shibboleth. The ones who could not shape the sh, who said sibboleth, were known in a heartbeat for what they were. A shibboleth is the syllable you cannot fake, the confession that reveals which bank of the river you are standing on. But here is the strange thing about ours, and it took me years to see it. Every other shibboleth in history was a word. A password. Something you said. Ours cannot be said at all. We have no creed to recite, so the test could never live in the mouth. It had to go somewhere the mouth cannot reach. It had to become a life. You do not pronounce this one. You build it, and the building shows. It is a man and a woman who took the covenant and then kept it, through the years and the dullness and the nights they wanted to leave and stayed, for time and for all eternity, while the whole world assured them the vow was a formality and the exits were always open. It is a house with too many children in it by the world's arithmetic, the family that refused to treat a child as a luxury to be deferred and took it instead as the entire point, the cord carried forward into the next generation, the one most of the world has now decided it cannot afford. It is the clean life. The thousand small refusals the world finds quaint or insane. The body kept. The appetites bridled. The Sabbath honored. The long sobriety of a people who say no to a hundred easy things on a Tuesday when no one is watching. These are not three rules. They are the welding itself, done with a body, in time. And none of it can be faked at the ford. You can sign the Proclamation in an afternoon. You cannot fake a marriage of forty years, or a table that loud, or a life that disciplined. The signature is easy. The life is the shibboleth. And so is the nerve to say it out loud, to stand up in the open and say that family is between a man and a woman, plainly, publicly, and where it costs you to say it, and to refuse to file the edge off the word because you would rather be liked, or because you have weighed the persecution and decided your own comfort is worth more than the truth. Anyone can affirm the parts the world still applauds."

Kirk Rollins

20,366 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

This City of Denver spent $9 million dollars to buy this building for the homeless 1,200+ days later ZERO people are housed. The building remains boarded up and vacant over 3 years later The City bought the building and planned to sell it to a California based nonprofit for only $10, they deal never went through The project now just sits here vacant. $9 million dollars wasted for nothing, zero people housed This is Democrat leadership in action. The city has also admitted the building will sit empty for at least another 12 months At some point we have to start considering this criminal and hold politicians accountable
1:17

This City of Denver spent $9 million dollars to buy this building for the homeless 1,200+ days later ZERO people are housed. The building remains boarded up and vacant over 3 years later The City bought the building and planned to sell it to a California based nonprofit for only $10, they deal never went through The project now just sits here vacant. $9 million dollars wasted for nothing, zero people housed This is Democrat leadership in action. The city has also admitted the building will sit empty for at least another 12 months At some point we have to start considering this criminal and hold politicians accountable

Wall Street Apes

324,851 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

The world spent the day of this raid counting Palestinian dead and calling the operation a massacre. What it refused to sit with is the reason the operators went in at all. It refused to sit with the fact that the hostages were being held in civilian homes, not tunnels. It refused to sit with the fact that ordinary Gazans were firing on the soldiers, Hamas was firing RPGs in civilian neighborhoods. That’s what caused the death toll. The operation was to rescue innocent hostages kidnapped brutally by Gazans and kept in civilian homes by “innocent civilians”, some for over TWO YEARS. This is Noa Argamani being taken out of a building in Nuseirat after 245 days. Yamam and the ISA are in the room. Someone says her name. Someone tells her she is safe, that they are taking her to the car, that they are taking her home. She is excited and terrified of the way out in the same breath. That is not a press statement. That is what a rescue sounds like when the people doing it still remember she is a person and not a bargaining chip. Every slogan about “hostages” that does not end in a doorway like this one is theater. The tape is the rebuttal.
0:40

The world spent the day of this raid counting Palestinian dead and calling the operation a massacre. What it refused to sit with is the reason the operators went in at all. It refused to sit with the fact that the hostages were being held in civilian homes, not tunnels. It refused to sit with the fact that ordinary Gazans were firing on the soldiers, Hamas was firing RPGs in civilian neighborhoods. That’s what caused the death toll. The operation was to rescue innocent hostages kidnapped brutally by Gazans and kept in civilian homes by “innocent civilians”, some for over TWO YEARS. This is Noa Argamani being taken out of a building in Nuseirat after 245 days. Yamam and the ISA are in the room. Someone says her name. Someone tells her she is safe, that they are taking her to the car, that they are taking her home. She is excited and terrified of the way out in the same breath. That is not a press statement. That is what a rescue sounds like when the people doing it still remember she is a person and not a bargaining chip. Every slogan about “hostages” that does not end in a doorway like this one is theater. The tape is the rebuttal.

Mor Edge Insight

14,079 görüntüleme • 19 gün önce

Dave Ramsey says the duplex every beginner investor wants to buy is a mistake… “The beginning investor says, ‘I want to buy a duplex and live in one side and rent out the other.’ Two problems with that” “One is your tenants next door. And two, when you get ready to sell it, the buyer is probably another investor. Which means wholesale by definition”
0:28

Dave Ramsey says the duplex every beginner investor wants to buy is a mistake… “The beginning investor says, ‘I want to buy a duplex and live in one side and rent out the other.’ Two problems with that” “One is your tenants next door. And two, when you get ready to sell it, the buyer is probably another investor. Which means wholesale by definition”

The Iced Coffee Hour

41,776 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Your faith was forged in people who would rather be exterminated than assimilated. A soft version of it, eager to be liked and desperate to fit in, is not the thing they died to hand you. So stop striving to be liked. Stop angling to be loved by a world that drove your fathers into the snow. That world would think no better of the gospel today than it did in 1838. Stop trying to file down every peculiar and glorious edge of the Restoration until the world finally finds you acceptable. It never will. And the wanting of its approval is the slow death of everything your people bled to preserve. I am thinking of the proclamation on the family, and of how many have quietly gone looking for a way around it. Some say it aloud now. Some march under the world's Pride banners and tell themselves it is only love. They have done the quiet arithmetic and concluded that if they give the world this one doctrine, the world will finally stop hating them, finally let them belong, finally call them good. It does not work that way. It has never once worked that way. Understand what the world actually hates, because it is not a single teaching about marriage that it cannot abide. It is the claim. It is the unbearable, scandalous claim that the keys of the priesthood were restored to the earth, that there is a prophet who speaks for God, that this and no other is the authorized house of the Lord. That is the offense. That is what it cannot forgive. You could surrender every doctrine the world finds distasteful, one after another, and you would not buy a single hour of peace, because the thing it objects to is not your position on this or that. It is that you claim to hold the authority of heaven, and it intends to see that claim humbled. The doctrine is only the doorway it is pushing on. The house is what it wants. Embrace the truth. Embrace the battle that has always come with it, because there has always been a battle, and there is one now. It is the oldest war there is, good against evil, light against the dark, and you were born onto its field whether you wished to be or not. You did not inherit a museum. You inherited a war, and a banner, and a people who never once surrendered it. You are a Mormon. The blood of the persecuted is in you, and the truth they died for is in your hands. You are not tourists. You are not spectators. You are the heirs of warriors, and the line they held is now yours to hold. So plant your feet on the ground they bled for. Lift the banner they would not drop.
2:53

Your faith was forged in people who would rather be exterminated than assimilated. A soft version of it, eager to be liked and desperate to fit in, is not the thing they died to hand you. So stop striving to be liked. Stop angling to be loved by a world that drove your fathers into the snow. That world would think no better of the gospel today than it did in 1838. Stop trying to file down every peculiar and glorious edge of the Restoration until the world finally finds you acceptable. It never will. And the wanting of its approval is the slow death of everything your people bled to preserve. I am thinking of the proclamation on the family, and of how many have quietly gone looking for a way around it. Some say it aloud now. Some march under the world's Pride banners and tell themselves it is only love. They have done the quiet arithmetic and concluded that if they give the world this one doctrine, the world will finally stop hating them, finally let them belong, finally call them good. It does not work that way. It has never once worked that way. Understand what the world actually hates, because it is not a single teaching about marriage that it cannot abide. It is the claim. It is the unbearable, scandalous claim that the keys of the priesthood were restored to the earth, that there is a prophet who speaks for God, that this and no other is the authorized house of the Lord. That is the offense. That is what it cannot forgive. You could surrender every doctrine the world finds distasteful, one after another, and you would not buy a single hour of peace, because the thing it objects to is not your position on this or that. It is that you claim to hold the authority of heaven, and it intends to see that claim humbled. The doctrine is only the doorway it is pushing on. The house is what it wants. Embrace the truth. Embrace the battle that has always come with it, because there has always been a battle, and there is one now. It is the oldest war there is, good against evil, light against the dark, and you were born onto its field whether you wished to be or not. You did not inherit a museum. You inherited a war, and a banner, and a people who never once surrendered it. You are a Mormon. The blood of the persecuted is in you, and the truth they died for is in your hands. You are not tourists. You are not spectators. You are the heirs of warriors, and the line they held is now yours to hold. So plant your feet on the ground they bled for. Lift the banner they would not drop.

Kirk Rollins

30,673 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

I've become a missionary with one message. Every time I meet a young person, the same words: have children, get married, build a family. I did not decide on this calling. It overtook me. And it overtook me for a single reason. I had no idea. I genuinely did not understand how much joy, how much meaning, how much sheer beauty pours out of a child until I was holding one of my own and felt the floor of my life drop into something deeper than I knew was there. I grew up white, affluent, secular, comfortable, and insulated. That world does not put babies in front of you. None of my friends were starting families. Out of my whole circle, almost no one has a big one. We were not formed by the presence of children. We were formed by their absence, by the strange quiet of homes built for two careers and no cradle. And a person believes what his world shows him. So we believed. What we believed was a lie. It is a lie with an author, and that the author is the enemy of joy himself. It is the gospel of the world, and its commandment is wait. Wait until you are older. Wait until the career is built and the savings are stacked and the twenties are properly spent. Enjoy your freedom. You are not ready. It does not arrive sounding like temptation. It arrives sounding like wisdom, like prudence, like the responsible thing, and that is exactly why it works. The most effective lies are the ones that wear the face of virtue. And the maddening thing is that it collapses from every angle at once. It is not rooted in biology, because the body is made for this work precisely in the years we are told to postpone it. The flesh keeps a calendar the culture pretends not to see. And it is not rooted in theology either. You will not find this deferral anywhere in the Christian imagination, in any of the fathers, in any of the scriptures. So choose whatever lens you like. Take the cold secular measure or the ancient sacred one. By either light the counsel is rotten. It is bad for the body and bad for the soul and bad for the society downstream of both. This is why I have come to see it as one of the central tragedies of my generation. Every age carries its own wound. The Great Depression was a depression of bread, a scarcity in the world of matter, hunger you could measure. Ours is a depression of a different order. It is a famine of the spirit in the middle of abundance. We have more than any people who ever lived and we are starving in a way our ancestors would not recognize, because the thing we are refusing cannot be bought and cannot be banked. The ones most made to give and receive this love are quietly declining it. They are walking away from the one inheritance that actually compounds, and the cruelest part is that they do not feel the loss as loss. You cannot grieve what you were taught not to want. That is the deepest cut of it. The lie does not only steal the thing. It steals the capacity to know the thing was stolen. A man can spend his whole life on the far side of a door he never knew was a door, mistaking the wall for the edge of the world. Because this beauty is not ordinary beauty. It is not the pleasure of a good meal or a clear morning. It is participation in something that comes down from above, the same generative love that spoke everything out of nothing and called it good. To make a person, to be undone and remade by loving that person more than your own life, is to be drawn for a moment inside the very act that holds the cosmos together. A child does not merely add to your life. A child reorders the soul. It teaches you what you are by asking everything of you, and you discover, kneeling there exhausted at three in the morning, that you had a capacity for self gift you never suspected, a depth in yourself you had no other way to reach. In the Gospel of John, on the last night, Jesus prays, these things I have spoken to you that my joy may be in you, and that your joy may be complete. And I have come to understand why family is the road into that fullness, why it is not one path among many but the one most fitted to the shape of the promise. Consider who is praying. Christ does not come to us as a lone figure dropped out of the sky. He comes out of a family older than the world, the eternal communion of Father and Son, the love between them so total and so alive that theologians dared to call it a third person. Before there was anything, there was a family. The deepest fact about reality is not a force or a law or a void. It is a household. It is begetting and being begotten, giving and receiving, a Father who is only a Father because there is a Son. So when Jesus speaks of joy made complete, he is not pointing away from family toward something higher. He is pointing toward the very thing he came from, the life he has known from eternity and came to share. His joy is the joy of belonging utterly to a Father and pouring himself out for those he loves. When you marry, when you bring a child into the world, when you wear yourself down in the small unseen labors of a home, you are not stepping outside that divine life. You are stepping into a small image of it. Your family is a created echo of an uncreated one. The love you give your child rhymes with the love the Father has for the Son. The exhaustion, the tenderness, the way a parent would tear the sky open to protect a sleeping infant, all of it is the heavens pressed faintly into flesh, the eternal household leaving its fingerprint on yours. That is why the joy is not merely added to family but completed in it. We were made in the image of a God who is, at his very root, relation and gift and generation. To found a family is to do the most Godlike thing a creature can do, to participate from below in the begetting that God does from all eternity. Your home becomes a window. Through it, dimly and imperfectly, you glimpse the country you came from and are going to. And now a word for the young people reading this, the ones who do not yet have children. I want to tell you what it is like from where I stand. When I am out somewhere, a restaurant, anywhere, and a large family comes through the door, the noise and the chaos and the small bodies of them, something happens in me on two levels at once. The first is joy. A pure gladness at the sight, the way you feel watching something good and alive. But underneath it, almost in the same instant, a sadness reaches up and takes hold of my heart. Because I know now, at my age, after my own years of waiting, that I will never have that. I will never know the particular fruit of a family that large, the fullness of that table, the weight of all those lives gathered under one roof. The door to it has quietly closed, and I felt it close. And I am telling you plainly, because I love you and have no reason to lie to you: you will feel this too. You will. The day will come when you see what you passed up, and you will recognize the ache for what it is, and it will be too late to answer it. So please, learn from a man who got it wrong. Let my regret be worth something by becoming your wisdom. Do not wait yourself into a grief you cannot undo. Choose now, while the door is open, so that you may step into a joy that does not end.
8:26

I've become a missionary with one message. Every time I meet a young person, the same words: have children, get married, build a family. I did not decide on this calling. It overtook me. And it overtook me for a single reason. I had no idea. I genuinely did not understand how much joy, how much meaning, how much sheer beauty pours out of a child until I was holding one of my own and felt the floor of my life drop into something deeper than I knew was there. I grew up white, affluent, secular, comfortable, and insulated. That world does not put babies in front of you. None of my friends were starting families. Out of my whole circle, almost no one has a big one. We were not formed by the presence of children. We were formed by their absence, by the strange quiet of homes built for two careers and no cradle. And a person believes what his world shows him. So we believed. What we believed was a lie. It is a lie with an author, and that the author is the enemy of joy himself. It is the gospel of the world, and its commandment is wait. Wait until you are older. Wait until the career is built and the savings are stacked and the twenties are properly spent. Enjoy your freedom. You are not ready. It does not arrive sounding like temptation. It arrives sounding like wisdom, like prudence, like the responsible thing, and that is exactly why it works. The most effective lies are the ones that wear the face of virtue. And the maddening thing is that it collapses from every angle at once. It is not rooted in biology, because the body is made for this work precisely in the years we are told to postpone it. The flesh keeps a calendar the culture pretends not to see. And it is not rooted in theology either. You will not find this deferral anywhere in the Christian imagination, in any of the fathers, in any of the scriptures. So choose whatever lens you like. Take the cold secular measure or the ancient sacred one. By either light the counsel is rotten. It is bad for the body and bad for the soul and bad for the society downstream of both. This is why I have come to see it as one of the central tragedies of my generation. Every age carries its own wound. The Great Depression was a depression of bread, a scarcity in the world of matter, hunger you could measure. Ours is a depression of a different order. It is a famine of the spirit in the middle of abundance. We have more than any people who ever lived and we are starving in a way our ancestors would not recognize, because the thing we are refusing cannot be bought and cannot be banked. The ones most made to give and receive this love are quietly declining it. They are walking away from the one inheritance that actually compounds, and the cruelest part is that they do not feel the loss as loss. You cannot grieve what you were taught not to want. That is the deepest cut of it. The lie does not only steal the thing. It steals the capacity to know the thing was stolen. A man can spend his whole life on the far side of a door he never knew was a door, mistaking the wall for the edge of the world. Because this beauty is not ordinary beauty. It is not the pleasure of a good meal or a clear morning. It is participation in something that comes down from above, the same generative love that spoke everything out of nothing and called it good. To make a person, to be undone and remade by loving that person more than your own life, is to be drawn for a moment inside the very act that holds the cosmos together. A child does not merely add to your life. A child reorders the soul. It teaches you what you are by asking everything of you, and you discover, kneeling there exhausted at three in the morning, that you had a capacity for self gift you never suspected, a depth in yourself you had no other way to reach. In the Gospel of John, on the last night, Jesus prays, these things I have spoken to you that my joy may be in you, and that your joy may be complete. And I have come to understand why family is the road into that fullness, why it is not one path among many but the one most fitted to the shape of the promise. Consider who is praying. Christ does not come to us as a lone figure dropped out of the sky. He comes out of a family older than the world, the eternal communion of Father and Son, the love between them so total and so alive that theologians dared to call it a third person. Before there was anything, there was a family. The deepest fact about reality is not a force or a law or a void. It is a household. It is begetting and being begotten, giving and receiving, a Father who is only a Father because there is a Son. So when Jesus speaks of joy made complete, he is not pointing away from family toward something higher. He is pointing toward the very thing he came from, the life he has known from eternity and came to share. His joy is the joy of belonging utterly to a Father and pouring himself out for those he loves. When you marry, when you bring a child into the world, when you wear yourself down in the small unseen labors of a home, you are not stepping outside that divine life. You are stepping into a small image of it. Your family is a created echo of an uncreated one. The love you give your child rhymes with the love the Father has for the Son. The exhaustion, the tenderness, the way a parent would tear the sky open to protect a sleeping infant, all of it is the heavens pressed faintly into flesh, the eternal household leaving its fingerprint on yours. That is why the joy is not merely added to family but completed in it. We were made in the image of a God who is, at his very root, relation and gift and generation. To found a family is to do the most Godlike thing a creature can do, to participate from below in the begetting that God does from all eternity. Your home becomes a window. Through it, dimly and imperfectly, you glimpse the country you came from and are going to. And now a word for the young people reading this, the ones who do not yet have children. I want to tell you what it is like from where I stand. When I am out somewhere, a restaurant, anywhere, and a large family comes through the door, the noise and the chaos and the small bodies of them, something happens in me on two levels at once. The first is joy. A pure gladness at the sight, the way you feel watching something good and alive. But underneath it, almost in the same instant, a sadness reaches up and takes hold of my heart. Because I know now, at my age, after my own years of waiting, that I will never have that. I will never know the particular fruit of a family that large, the fullness of that table, the weight of all those lives gathered under one roof. The door to it has quietly closed, and I felt it close. And I am telling you plainly, because I love you and have no reason to lie to you: you will feel this too. You will. The day will come when you see what you passed up, and you will recognize the ache for what it is, and it will be too late to answer it. So please, learn from a man who got it wrong. Let my regret be worth something by becoming your wisdom. Do not wait yourself into a grief you cannot undo. Choose now, while the door is open, so that you may step into a joy that does not end.

Kirk Rollins

78,143 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

Larry Ellison just told every software engineer on Earth their job description is dead. Not evolving. Dead. Ellison: “The code that Oracle is writing, Oracle isn’t writing. Our AI models are writing.” This is not a startup demo. This is one of the largest infrastructure monopolies on the planet telling you it already replaced the people who built it. For fifty years, building software meant translating human intent into machine instructions. Line by line. Bug by bug. Sprint by sprint. That entire layer is gone. Ellison: “We don’t write the procedure. We declare our intent.” That sentence just made the entire engineering labor market flinch. The procedure was the job. The procedure was the paycheck. The procedure was what made a developer valuable. And now the machine does it without being asked twice. Ellison: “We just tell the model what we want the program to do, and then the AI comes up with a step-by-step process to actually do it.” You are no longer paid to build. You are paid to think. And most organizations have no idea how to evaluate that. The companies still hiring armies of developers to grind through codebases are paying salaries the machine already made worthless. Not in years. In seconds. When a company worth hundreds of billions hands the keyboard to the machine and tells you the output is better, the debate is not winding down. The debate is over. The enterprise that wins this decade does not write the best code. It removes the human from the process entirely and runs on intent alone. The programmers who survive are the ones who realize the craft is no longer typing. It is architecture. It is judgment. It is knowing what to build and why. Everything else now belongs to the machine. And the machine does not negotiate severance.
0:31

Larry Ellison just told every software engineer on Earth their job description is dead. Not evolving. Dead. Ellison: “The code that Oracle is writing, Oracle isn’t writing. Our AI models are writing.” This is not a startup demo. This is one of the largest infrastructure monopolies on the planet telling you it already replaced the people who built it. For fifty years, building software meant translating human intent into machine instructions. Line by line. Bug by bug. Sprint by sprint. That entire layer is gone. Ellison: “We don’t write the procedure. We declare our intent.” That sentence just made the entire engineering labor market flinch. The procedure was the job. The procedure was the paycheck. The procedure was what made a developer valuable. And now the machine does it without being asked twice. Ellison: “We just tell the model what we want the program to do, and then the AI comes up with a step-by-step process to actually do it.” You are no longer paid to build. You are paid to think. And most organizations have no idea how to evaluate that. The companies still hiring armies of developers to grind through codebases are paying salaries the machine already made worthless. Not in years. In seconds. When a company worth hundreds of billions hands the keyboard to the machine and tells you the output is better, the debate is not winding down. The debate is over. The enterprise that wins this decade does not write the best code. It removes the human from the process entirely and runs on intent alone. The programmers who survive are the ones who realize the craft is no longer typing. It is architecture. It is judgment. It is knowing what to build and why. Everything else now belongs to the machine. And the machine does not negotiate severance.

Dustin

536,629 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

🗣️ Mikel Arteta on if it's surprised him to see players sold for over £100m: "Yes, it has. I wouldn't have bet on that to be fair. But that’s the market, that means that there are clubs that are happy to invest or they believe that the valuations of those players are that, and that's fair. "In the end, the value of the player is what somebody can pay for you, and they've done it, so that's the value and it's the right one because someone is happy to sell and someone is happy to buy, and in the middle, a player is happy to move from one club to the other. So I think that's fair."
0:43

🗣️ Mikel Arteta on if it's surprised him to see players sold for over £100m: "Yes, it has. I wouldn't have bet on that to be fair. But that’s the market, that means that there are clubs that are happy to invest or they believe that the valuations of those players are that, and that's fair. "In the end, the value of the player is what somebody can pay for you, and they've done it, so that's the value and it's the right one because someone is happy to sell and someone is happy to buy, and in the middle, a player is happy to move from one club to the other. So I think that's fair."

Connor Humm

47,828 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Elon Musk just told you the job is dying. Most people heard a prediction. A few heard a prison door opening. Musk: “In less than 20 years, working at all will be optional.” That is not a policy suggestion. That is a countdown. For three hundred years, the human blueprint has been identical. You are born. You move to the city. You rent a box near the office. You trade your body and your hours for the right to exist. You do this until you are old. Then you stop. Then you die. The entire model runs on one assumption. That human labor is the only engine. AI and robotics delete that assumption. When the machine handles production at a scale no human crew can match, the forced migration to the city evaporates. The commute evaporates. The cubicle evaporates. The alarm clock that owns your nervous system for forty years evaporates. Musk: “I think it won’t be the case that you have to be in a city for a job.” The city was never a choice. It was a requirement disguised as ambition. You moved to the noise and the concrete and the $4,000 rent because the paycheck lived there. Remove the paycheck from the equation and the geography changes overnight. You can live in the mountains. On the coast. In the silence of a town most people have never heard of. You can wake up to nothing but trees and cold air and the complete absence of anyone else’s schedule. That is not a fantasy. That is the math resolving. But here is where most people break. They hear “work is optional” and they see emptiness. A species with nothing to do. Billions of people staring at screens until their minds dissolve. That fear tells you everything about what the system has already done to us. We confused labor with purpose. The grind with meaning. The paycheck with proof that we matter. Musk: “In the same way that you could grow your own vegetables in your garden.” The analogy is precise. You do not grow tomatoes because the economy demands it. You grow them because something in you wants to build a thing with your hands and watch it come alive. That instinct does not disappear when the job does. It gets unleashed. The artist who spent twenty years doing accounting finally paints. The engineer who always wanted to build something of her own finally builds it. The kid in a small town who could never afford to take the risk finally takes it. Work does not vanish. Forced work vanishes. What replaces it is creation without a gun to your head. This is the part that keeps me up at night. We are standing at the edge of the largest liberation in human history. And the loudest voices in the room are begging to stay in the cell. They want the commute. They want the boss. They want the structure that tells them when to eat and when to sleep and when they are allowed to think about their own life. Because freedom without a template is terrifying. The next twenty years will not test our technology. The technology is already ahead of schedule. They will test whether the species can handle what it has been asking for since the beginning of civilization. Time. Space. Silence. And the unbearable weight of choosing what your life actually means when no one is forcing the answer. That is not a prediction. That is the final exam. And nobody is ready.
1:46

Elon Musk just told you the job is dying. Most people heard a prediction. A few heard a prison door opening. Musk: “In less than 20 years, working at all will be optional.” That is not a policy suggestion. That is a countdown. For three hundred years, the human blueprint has been identical. You are born. You move to the city. You rent a box near the office. You trade your body and your hours for the right to exist. You do this until you are old. Then you stop. Then you die. The entire model runs on one assumption. That human labor is the only engine. AI and robotics delete that assumption. When the machine handles production at a scale no human crew can match, the forced migration to the city evaporates. The commute evaporates. The cubicle evaporates. The alarm clock that owns your nervous system for forty years evaporates. Musk: “I think it won’t be the case that you have to be in a city for a job.” The city was never a choice. It was a requirement disguised as ambition. You moved to the noise and the concrete and the $4,000 rent because the paycheck lived there. Remove the paycheck from the equation and the geography changes overnight. You can live in the mountains. On the coast. In the silence of a town most people have never heard of. You can wake up to nothing but trees and cold air and the complete absence of anyone else’s schedule. That is not a fantasy. That is the math resolving. But here is where most people break. They hear “work is optional” and they see emptiness. A species with nothing to do. Billions of people staring at screens until their minds dissolve. That fear tells you everything about what the system has already done to us. We confused labor with purpose. The grind with meaning. The paycheck with proof that we matter. Musk: “In the same way that you could grow your own vegetables in your garden.” The analogy is precise. You do not grow tomatoes because the economy demands it. You grow them because something in you wants to build a thing with your hands and watch it come alive. That instinct does not disappear when the job does. It gets unleashed. The artist who spent twenty years doing accounting finally paints. The engineer who always wanted to build something of her own finally builds it. The kid in a small town who could never afford to take the risk finally takes it. Work does not vanish. Forced work vanishes. What replaces it is creation without a gun to your head. This is the part that keeps me up at night. We are standing at the edge of the largest liberation in human history. And the loudest voices in the room are begging to stay in the cell. They want the commute. They want the boss. They want the structure that tells them when to eat and when to sleep and when they are allowed to think about their own life. Because freedom without a template is terrifying. The next twenty years will not test our technology. The technology is already ahead of schedule. They will test whether the species can handle what it has been asking for since the beginning of civilization. Time. Space. Silence. And the unbearable weight of choosing what your life actually means when no one is forcing the answer. That is not a prediction. That is the final exam. And nobody is ready.

Dustin

111,869 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

Bill Ackman says AI is never going to replace musicians. His reasoning is a masterclass in how he actually picks companies to invest in: 1. He looks for one thing: businesses that cannot be disrupted. The test is specific. Close your eyes, imagine the stock market shuts down for a decade, and ask whether you still know that ten years from now this company will be more valuable and more profitable. Almost nothing passes. 2. Very few businesses can actually be predicted, which means most investments are really speculations. Ackman is honest about this. Predicting the future is genuinely hard. His entire job is hunting for the rare companies whose trajectory you can forecast over a very long horizon, and there are not many. 3. His answer was Universal Music Group, and the logic starts with permanence. Music is a thousands-of-years-old part of the human experience, and it will still be here thousands of years from now. That is an unusually good backdrop against which to own anything. 4. Then he stacks the advantages that cannot be copied. Universal owns roughly a third of all global recorded music, the most dominant share in the business. They are the best in the world at taking an 18-year-old with a great voice and a following online and building them into a superstar, which is why the best artists want to sign with them. And they own the library: the Beatles, the Rolling Stones. 5. Streaming turned an unpredictable business into a predictable one, which is exactly what he wants. Selling records was volatile. Streaming lets you build a model. How many people have smartphones, how many will next year, what does the global penetration curve look like, what does a family plan cost. Suddenly you can forecast the whole business. 6. The company already survived the thing that nearly killed its industry. Music peaked around 2000, and then Napster and digitization almost destroyed it. Universal led the effort to save the industry and cut an early deal with Spotify that let the whole business recover. Adopting the new technology instead of fighting it is what preserved their position. 7. The device will change, and it won't matter. Whether the music arrives through Spotify, Apple, Amazon, or eventually a chip in your head, people will still want an infinite library in their pocket. The form factor is not where the value lives. The value sits with the content owners, which means the artists and the label. 8. And this is where he lands on AI: nobody falls in love with a computer-generated track. Computers have been used to generate music for decades. It has never produced anything anyone cared about. Taylor Swift is not just the songs. She is the artist, the story, the physical presence, the live experience. Nobody is going to get excited watching a computer on a stage. 9. Instead, AI becomes a tool that makes artists better. Ackman compares it to the synthesizer, which let one person command an entire orchestra. A mild threat to a percussionist, maybe. But it may have driven even more demand for the live experience, which is precisely the part a machine cannot replicate. 10. All of it comes back to one line from Benjamin Graham. Price is what you pay, value is what you get. You can never calculate value precisely, only approximate it. So you buy at a big enough discount to your approximation that being wrong by 30% still leaves you fine. That is the margin of safety, and it is why a huge part of investing is simply not losing money. 11. And the principle generalizes far past music. McDonald's is a 1950s business, and 75 years later you can still predict roughly what it looks like. The menu adjusts to taste, but the core does not move. As Ackman puts it: the Beatles, the Rolling Stones, and the hamburger and fries are forever.
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Bill Ackman says AI is never going to replace musicians. His reasoning is a masterclass in how he actually picks companies to invest in: 1. He looks for one thing: businesses that cannot be disrupted. The test is specific. Close your eyes, imagine the stock market shuts down for a decade, and ask whether you still know that ten years from now this company will be more valuable and more profitable. Almost nothing passes. 2. Very few businesses can actually be predicted, which means most investments are really speculations. Ackman is honest about this. Predicting the future is genuinely hard. His entire job is hunting for the rare companies whose trajectory you can forecast over a very long horizon, and there are not many. 3. His answer was Universal Music Group, and the logic starts with permanence. Music is a thousands-of-years-old part of the human experience, and it will still be here thousands of years from now. That is an unusually good backdrop against which to own anything. 4. Then he stacks the advantages that cannot be copied. Universal owns roughly a third of all global recorded music, the most dominant share in the business. They are the best in the world at taking an 18-year-old with a great voice and a following online and building them into a superstar, which is why the best artists want to sign with them. And they own the library: the Beatles, the Rolling Stones. 5. Streaming turned an unpredictable business into a predictable one, which is exactly what he wants. Selling records was volatile. Streaming lets you build a model. How many people have smartphones, how many will next year, what does the global penetration curve look like, what does a family plan cost. Suddenly you can forecast the whole business. 6. The company already survived the thing that nearly killed its industry. Music peaked around 2000, and then Napster and digitization almost destroyed it. Universal led the effort to save the industry and cut an early deal with Spotify that let the whole business recover. Adopting the new technology instead of fighting it is what preserved their position. 7. The device will change, and it won't matter. Whether the music arrives through Spotify, Apple, Amazon, or eventually a chip in your head, people will still want an infinite library in their pocket. The form factor is not where the value lives. The value sits with the content owners, which means the artists and the label. 8. And this is where he lands on AI: nobody falls in love with a computer-generated track. Computers have been used to generate music for decades. It has never produced anything anyone cared about. Taylor Swift is not just the songs. She is the artist, the story, the physical presence, the live experience. Nobody is going to get excited watching a computer on a stage. 9. Instead, AI becomes a tool that makes artists better. Ackman compares it to the synthesizer, which let one person command an entire orchestra. A mild threat to a percussionist, maybe. But it may have driven even more demand for the live experience, which is precisely the part a machine cannot replicate. 10. All of it comes back to one line from Benjamin Graham. Price is what you pay, value is what you get. You can never calculate value precisely, only approximate it. So you buy at a big enough discount to your approximation that being wrong by 30% still leaves you fine. That is the margin of safety, and it is why a huge part of investing is simply not losing money. 11. And the principle generalizes far past music. McDonald's is a 1950s business, and 75 years later you can still predict roughly what it looks like. The menu adjusts to taste, but the core does not move. As Ackman puts it: the Beatles, the Rolling Stones, and the hamburger and fries are forever.

Jaynit

17,811 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce