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An ex-Tudor quant PM just sat down for 76 minutes and explained what's happened to the industry over the last 15 years. His main claim: there hasn't been a single new idea in trading in 15 years. Every algorithm and strategy moving billions through Wall Street today is a... show more

zostaff

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13,637 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Anton Kreil, ex-Goldman Sachs trader. 10,000 people apply for a single trading seat at a bank. 15 years ago it was 2 to 3 thousand. The one who gets in does not get a job. He gets a two year contract. After six years, tax, and locked-up stock, what lands in your account is $50k a year.

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"I haven't seen a real new idea in trading in at least 15 years." Tom Costello (Tom Coste) ran money at Tudor, Moore Capital, and Caxton. Built one of the first NLP-driven equity systems in 2003. 20 years managing capital, never had a down year. "Comparing what a retail trader does to what a quantitative hedge fund does is like comparing driving a bus on the New Jersey Turnpike to winning a Formula One race." We cover: - His hot take: no genuinely new trading idea in 15 years — only better people doing the same things faster - Why everyone in quant finance is a genius — and why that makes you ordinary, not special - Crypto is "super smart guys cosplaying at finance" — built for retail, which is exactly why it's the easiest money in finance right now - Why AGI won't beat the hedge fund industry — all the readily-capturable alpha is already captured - The status trap: why the path that made Paul Tudor Jones a billionaire won't work for the kid trying to copy it in 2026 - His friend the investment banker who'd quit it all to run a 10-employee ambulance supply company worth $150M - Why excitement is "wildly overbid" in finance — and why wanting an exciting trading job is itself a disqualifier - The most honest end of the financial industry — and why the media has it exactly backwards Thanks so much to Tom for coming on Odds on Open! Highlights: 00:00 Intro 01:18 Building institutional credibility for early-stage managers 03:01 The Pareto distribution of hedge fund returns 04:25 Applying the Unified Field Theory of Finance to fair value 08:14 Trading against human incentives in a deterministic market 13:54 Why allocators don’t steal alpha from prospective PMs 25:16 Evaluating career edge in quantitative finance for 2026 30:48 Paul Tudor Jones and the art of game selection 33:42 Analyzing the economic viability of starting a new fund 35:16 Identifying common retail pitfalls: Mean reversion and arbitrage 38:55 Why there hasn't been a new trading idea in 15 years 50:33 Managing tail risk: Physics vs. deterministic financial distributions 59:10 Career pathing for PMs after a fund blow-up 1:07:53 SBF and FTX: Credibility vs. the "Founder-Genius" archetype 1:13:44 Establishing proof-of-concept through audited multi-year returns

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You know it’s a big compliment that he said Nox is his most favorite character to play in the last 15 years bc he had many interesting and big roles through those years as one of the well known actors

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