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An MIT professor explained the one idea funds pay $500K for, and he does it in the first hour of freshman calculus. MIT put the whole lecture online. it has been free for twenty years. almost nobody finishes it. his point: calculus is not a hundred formulas to memorize.... it is one idea. take two points on a curve, slide them together until the gap vanishes, and the slope you are left with is the derivative. everything else is just consequences. he is David Jerison, and his 18.01 lectures have taught more people calculus than any room on earth. skip to the board, where the power rule, the product rule, the chain rule, the fifty things you were forced to memorize, all fall out of that one limit. no formula sheet. no tricks. one definition, reused. that same slope is velocity. it is marginal cost. it is the gradient that trains a neural network. one operation, hiding everywhere something moves. the math is free. what nobody can sell you is the patience to understand the one limit instead of cramming the fifty formulas that fall out of it. that hour is the foundation, and it is the only part that ever pays.show more

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Alan Oppenheim, MIT professor: "Jump Trading pays quants $650K to pull one real signal out of market noise. I wrote the textbook on that exact math and taught it for free." this free MIT lecture is the math the whole "quant edge" is built on, and almost nobody selling you a course will name it. the man teaching it wrote the signal-processing textbook every engineer on earth learned from, and he put the lectures online for nothing. here is the idea. a price chart is a signal buried in noise. most of what you see is random static, and hidden inside is a faint, repeating pattern with real mathematics for pulling it out. that is not a metaphor. jim simons was a codebreaker who did exactly this to enemy transmissions, then pointed the same math at the market and made a hundred billion dollars. none of it is new. oppenheim taught this in 1987, the math is older, and every lecture is free. same story i told in the article above. the edge was never a secret formula. it was knowing a market is a noisy signal, and having the tools to read it. here is what the gurus skip. the math to separate signal from noise is free and everyone has it. the edge is cleaner data than the next desk, and the discipline to trust a faint signal across thousands of trades instead of chasing the static. the filter is free. the patience to use it is not.

Alan Oppenheim, MIT professor: "Jump Trading pays quants $650K to pull one real signal out of market noise. I wrote the textbook on that exact math and taught it for free." this free MIT lecture is the math the whole "quant edge" is built on, and almost nobody selling you a course will name it. the man teaching it wrote the signal-processing textbook every engineer on earth learned from, and he put the lectures online for nothing. here is the idea. a price chart is a signal buried in noise. most of what you see is random static, and hidden inside is a faint, repeating pattern with real mathematics for pulling it out. that is not a metaphor. jim simons was a codebreaker who did exactly this to enemy transmissions, then pointed the same math at the market and made a hundred billion dollars. none of it is new. oppenheim taught this in 1987, the math is older, and every lecture is free. same story i told in the article above. the edge was never a secret formula. it was knowing a market is a noisy signal, and having the tools to read it. here is what the gurus skip. the math to separate signal from noise is free and everyone has it. the edge is cleaner data than the next desk, and the discipline to trust a faint signal across thousands of trades instead of chasing the static. the filter is free. the patience to use it is not.

Rossst.03

269,381 просмотров • 25 дней назад

MIT filmed the single hour that makes all of calculus one subject instead of two. Free, uncut, chalk only. Almost nobody watches it. This is 18.01, Single Variable Calculus, lecture 19, taught by David Jerison. The First Fundamental Theorem of Calculus. Slopes and areas were separate problems for centuries. Different tools, different people, different questions. This lecture shows they were the same thing pointed in opposite directions. Every gradient computed in every training run rides on that connection. Most engineers use it daily and have never seen the proof that makes it legal. Watch the board work in the middle. He builds the link line by line, real students in the room, no software, no animation. A machine learning engineer I know rewatched it before an interview and said the chain from loss to update finally read as 1 object instead of 3 tricks. Full course free on YouTube under Creative Commons. You've been using the theorem. You've never seen it earned.

MIT filmed the single hour that makes all of calculus one subject instead of two. Free, uncut, chalk only. Almost nobody watches it. This is 18.01, Single Variable Calculus, lecture 19, taught by David Jerison. The First Fundamental Theorem of Calculus. Slopes and areas were separate problems for centuries. Different tools, different people, different questions. This lecture shows they were the same thing pointed in opposite directions. Every gradient computed in every training run rides on that connection. Most engineers use it daily and have never seen the proof that makes it legal. Watch the board work in the middle. He builds the link line by line, real students in the room, no software, no animation. A machine learning engineer I know rewatched it before an interview and said the chain from loss to update finally read as 1 object instead of 3 tricks. Full course free on YouTube under Creative Commons. You've been using the theorem. You've never seen it earned.

obssnnn

121,662 просмотров • 4 дней назад

Marvin Minsky, MIT professor and father of AI: "The best trader on Wall Street is no longer human. I spent fifty years proving the mind is just a machine built from smaller machines, and once that's true, nothing stops a machine from being the house. it already is." this free lecture holds the entire "AI edge" the funds and the gurus sell, and the man teaching it founded the field itself and put his whole MIT course online for free. at the board it's simple. Minsky's idea is that there is no magic in thinking. a mind is a huge pile of small, mindless parts, each doing something simple, and intelligence is just what happens when enough of them work together. a trading machine is the same trick: thousands of simple rules stacked until an edge appears. that's the whole "AI", minus the mystery. Minsky taught this at MIT and published "The Society of Mind" in 1986. the course has been free ever since. same point as my casino piece above: the house wins with many small mindless advantages stacked, not with one born genius. the ideas are free and every AI lab and every fund already has them. what they cannot sell you is the data and the compute to actually build the machine. that is the real moat now, and no lecture can hand it to you.

Marvin Minsky, MIT professor and father of AI: "The best trader on Wall Street is no longer human. I spent fifty years proving the mind is just a machine built from smaller machines, and once that's true, nothing stops a machine from being the house. it already is." this free lecture holds the entire "AI edge" the funds and the gurus sell, and the man teaching it founded the field itself and put his whole MIT course online for free. at the board it's simple. Minsky's idea is that there is no magic in thinking. a mind is a huge pile of small, mindless parts, each doing something simple, and intelligence is just what happens when enough of them work together. a trading machine is the same trick: thousands of simple rules stacked until an edge appears. that's the whole "AI", minus the mystery. Minsky taught this at MIT and published "The Society of Mind" in 1986. the course has been free ever since. same point as my casino piece above: the house wins with many small mindless advantages stacked, not with one born genius. the ideas are free and every AI lab and every fund already has them. what they cannot sell you is the data and the compute to actually build the machine. that is the real moat now, and no lecture can hand it to you.

Voltex

27,976 просмотров • 11 дней назад

David MacKay, Cambridge professor: "Citadel and Jane Street pay $900K for people who get one idea I taught free at Cambridge: information is measurable, and whoever measures it best wins. the casino knew it first. the machines know it now." this free lecture holds the entire "secret alpha" the funds and the AI gurus sell, and the man teaching it put his whole course and his whole book online for free and never locked a single page. at the board it's simple. information is just how much a signal cuts your uncertainty, and you can measure it in exact bits. the more an edge shrinks what you don't know, the more it is worth, and Shannon proved there is a hard ceiling on how fast you can compound it into money. that is the whole "edge", and the whole "AI magic", minus the marketing. MacKay taught it at Cambridge and gave the book away free in 2003. it has been free ever since. same point as the casino piece above: the house wins with a small, measurable edge, repeated and sized right, not with a secret. the theory is free and every fund and every model already runs on it. what they cannot sell you is the data to feed the machine and the discipline to size the bet. that is the part that actually compounds, and no course can put it in a formula.

David MacKay, Cambridge professor: "Citadel and Jane Street pay $900K for people who get one idea I taught free at Cambridge: information is measurable, and whoever measures it best wins. the casino knew it first. the machines know it now." this free lecture holds the entire "secret alpha" the funds and the AI gurus sell, and the man teaching it put his whole course and his whole book online for free and never locked a single page. at the board it's simple. information is just how much a signal cuts your uncertainty, and you can measure it in exact bits. the more an edge shrinks what you don't know, the more it is worth, and Shannon proved there is a hard ceiling on how fast you can compound it into money. that is the whole "edge", and the whole "AI magic", minus the marketing. MacKay taught it at Cambridge and gave the book away free in 2003. it has been free ever since. same point as the casino piece above: the house wins with a small, measurable edge, repeated and sized right, not with a secret. the theory is free and every fund and every model already runs on it. what they cannot sell you is the data to feed the machine and the discipline to size the bet. that is the part that actually compounds, and no course can put it in a formula.

Rossst.03

24,699 просмотров • 13 дней назад

Richard Feynman, Nobel Prize-winning physicist: "You can know the name of every pattern in the market and understand nothing about why a single one works. I won a Nobel on that one distinction. it is the whole difference between an edge and a story you tell yourself." this free film is a Nobel laureate teaching you how to actually think, recorded by the BBC and free ever since. at the board it's simple. Feynman's obsession was the gap between naming a thing and understanding it. You can memorize the word for why a stock moved, "momentum", "mean reversion", and still know nothing about whether it will happen again. Real understanding means you can say why, from the mechanism up, and name what would break it. Everything else is a label pasted over ignorance. That's the whole "edge", minus the marketing. Feynman's rule was that the first principle is you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool. Same point as my casino piece above: the market is a machine for handing you convincing stories, and the only defense is refusing to believe one you cannot explain. the film is free and anyone can watch it tonight. what nobody can give you is the discipline to admit "I named it but I don't understand it" before you put money on it. That honesty is the edge, and it is the rarest thing there is.

Richard Feynman, Nobel Prize-winning physicist: "You can know the name of every pattern in the market and understand nothing about why a single one works. I won a Nobel on that one distinction. it is the whole difference between an edge and a story you tell yourself." this free film is a Nobel laureate teaching you how to actually think, recorded by the BBC and free ever since. at the board it's simple. Feynman's obsession was the gap between naming a thing and understanding it. You can memorize the word for why a stock moved, "momentum", "mean reversion", and still know nothing about whether it will happen again. Real understanding means you can say why, from the mechanism up, and name what would break it. Everything else is a label pasted over ignorance. That's the whole "edge", minus the marketing. Feynman's rule was that the first principle is you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool. Same point as my casino piece above: the market is a machine for handing you convincing stories, and the only defense is refusing to believe one you cannot explain. the film is free and anyone can watch it tonight. what nobody can give you is the discipline to admit "I named it but I don't understand it" before you put money on it. That honesty is the edge, and it is the rarest thing there is.

Rossst.03

19,337 просмотров • 7 дней назад

Alan Oppenheim, MIT professor: "Every trader alive uses a moving average. Almost none of them know it's a filter, and funds pay quants $600K for the version they were never taught." a moving average is a filter. it smooths a jumpy price to reveal the slower signal hiding underneath. that is all it is, and it is the bluntest one there is. the same math gives you filters that lag less and cut more noise, and that gap is a real edge. this is the second half of what Simons was doing. first you accept the market is a signal buried in noise. then you build the filter that reads it, and the moving average on your chart is the crudest possible version. Oppenheim builds the real ones at the board in this lecture. here is the catch. a filter only helps if there is a real signal under the noise. smooth pure randomness and you will see a beautiful trend that means nothing. the filter is free. knowing there is a real signal worth filtering is the edge.

Alan Oppenheim, MIT professor: "Every trader alive uses a moving average. Almost none of them know it's a filter, and funds pay quants $600K for the version they were never taught." a moving average is a filter. it smooths a jumpy price to reveal the slower signal hiding underneath. that is all it is, and it is the bluntest one there is. the same math gives you filters that lag less and cut more noise, and that gap is a real edge. this is the second half of what Simons was doing. first you accept the market is a signal buried in noise. then you build the filter that reads it, and the moving average on your chart is the crudest possible version. Oppenheim builds the real ones at the board in this lecture. here is the catch. a filter only helps if there is a real signal under the noise. smooth pure randomness and you will see a beautiful trend that means nothing. the filter is free. knowing there is a real signal worth filtering is the edge.

Rossst.03

214,907 просмотров • 23 дней назад

Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate and author of "Thinking, Fast and Slow": "You have two minds. one is fast, confident and usually wrong about money. the other is slow, lazy, and the only one that can do the math. I won a Nobel showing the casino lives off the first one, because it shows up before the second one wakes up." this free lecture holds the entire "trust your instincts" the gurus sell, from the Nobel laureate who proved your instincts are the trap. at the board it's simple. Kahneman split the mind in two. System 1 is fast, automatic and sure of itself. System 2 is slow, effortful, and the only part that actually computes the odds. the catch is that System 1 answers first and System 2 is lazy, so you act on a feeling and build the reasons afterward. the casino and the market are timed to catch you in that first second. that's the whole "instinct edge", minus the marketing. Kahneman worked this out over fifty years and put it in one book in 2011. it has been public ever since. same point as my casino piece above: the house wins because your fast mind calls luck skill before your slow mind can check the math. the science is free and half the world has read the book. what nobody can sell you is the discipline to wake the slow mind up before you click buy. that one pause is the whole edge, and no lecture can force you to take it.

Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate and author of "Thinking, Fast and Slow": "You have two minds. one is fast, confident and usually wrong about money. the other is slow, lazy, and the only one that can do the math. I won a Nobel showing the casino lives off the first one, because it shows up before the second one wakes up." this free lecture holds the entire "trust your instincts" the gurus sell, from the Nobel laureate who proved your instincts are the trap. at the board it's simple. Kahneman split the mind in two. System 1 is fast, automatic and sure of itself. System 2 is slow, effortful, and the only part that actually computes the odds. the catch is that System 1 answers first and System 2 is lazy, so you act on a feeling and build the reasons afterward. the casino and the market are timed to catch you in that first second. that's the whole "instinct edge", minus the marketing. Kahneman worked this out over fifty years and put it in one book in 2011. it has been public ever since. same point as my casino piece above: the house wins because your fast mind calls luck skill before your slow mind can check the math. the science is free and half the world has read the book. what nobody can sell you is the discipline to wake the slow mind up before you click buy. that one pause is the whole edge, and no lecture can force you to take it.

Rossst.03

170,032 просмотров • 12 дней назад

A NASA fellow claims 5 equations explain 99 percent of the physics that actually runs your world. Understand them deeply and you are set for life. His words. And the way he does it is what makes the video worth it. He does not teach the five as a list. He tells them as one story, where each equation is born from the one before it. F equals ma leads into gravity. Gravity rhymes with the law of electric charge, the exact same shape. That connects to magnetism. Magnetism folds into the wave. And the wave quietly opens the door to relativity and quantum physics. By the end, all of physics feels like a single sentence written by one hand, not a pile of formulas you were forced to memorize. The move that stays with you comes first. He says F equals ma is written the wrong way around, and rewrites it. One tiny flip, and the most famous equation on Earth suddenly means something school never told you. His point for why this matters now: in the age of AI, the people who understand reality itself stay in demand. Everyone else is just memorizing. Five equations. One thread. It is in the video.

A NASA fellow claims 5 equations explain 99 percent of the physics that actually runs your world. Understand them deeply and you are set for life. His words. And the way he does it is what makes the video worth it. He does not teach the five as a list. He tells them as one story, where each equation is born from the one before it. F equals ma leads into gravity. Gravity rhymes with the law of electric charge, the exact same shape. That connects to magnetism. Magnetism folds into the wave. And the wave quietly opens the door to relativity and quantum physics. By the end, all of physics feels like a single sentence written by one hand, not a pile of formulas you were forced to memorize. The move that stays with you comes first. He says F equals ma is written the wrong way around, and rewrites it. One tiny flip, and the most famous equation on Earth suddenly means something school never told you. His point for why this matters now: in the age of AI, the people who understand reality itself stay in demand. Everyone else is just memorizing. Five equations. One thread. It is in the video.

ooaes

422,612 просмотров • 2 дней назад

Marvin Minsky, MIT professor and father of artificial intelligence: "Anthropic pays engineers $900K to build multi-agent AI systems. The blueprint is 40 years old, from an MIT professor who proved intelligence is just a swarm of dumb specialists." the thread above shows you how to turn one AI into a team of specialized agents, each with its own job and memory, all managed by a boss. brilliant. it is also marvin minsky's 1986 theory of how your own mind works. minsky's whole idea was that intelligence is not one smart thing. it is a society of tiny, mindless agents, each doing a single dumb job, none of them intelligent alone. put enough of them together under a few managers and intelligence emerges. that is not a metaphor for the claude trick. it is the claude trick. so when you spin up specialized sub-agents and delegate, you are not inventing a new hack. you are rebuilding the architecture minsky described forty years ago, the same one your brain has run your entire life. he co-founded the field, taught it at MIT, and left it all in this free lecture. same story i keep telling: the "new" AI trick is usually an old idea in a new wrapper. here is the part the thread skips, and minsky knew it. a society of agents is only as good as how you organize it. one dumb specialist is useless. a thousand, badly managed, is chaos. the edge was never spawning the agents. it is the orchestration, knowing which specialist to call, when, and how to combine their answers. the tool is free. the judgment is the whole game.

Marvin Minsky, MIT professor and father of artificial intelligence: "Anthropic pays engineers $900K to build multi-agent AI systems. The blueprint is 40 years old, from an MIT professor who proved intelligence is just a swarm of dumb specialists." the thread above shows you how to turn one AI into a team of specialized agents, each with its own job and memory, all managed by a boss. brilliant. it is also marvin minsky's 1986 theory of how your own mind works. minsky's whole idea was that intelligence is not one smart thing. it is a society of tiny, mindless agents, each doing a single dumb job, none of them intelligent alone. put enough of them together under a few managers and intelligence emerges. that is not a metaphor for the claude trick. it is the claude trick. so when you spin up specialized sub-agents and delegate, you are not inventing a new hack. you are rebuilding the architecture minsky described forty years ago, the same one your brain has run your entire life. he co-founded the field, taught it at MIT, and left it all in this free lecture. same story i keep telling: the "new" AI trick is usually an old idea in a new wrapper. here is the part the thread skips, and minsky knew it. a society of agents is only as good as how you organize it. one dumb specialist is useless. a thousand, badly managed, is chaos. the edge was never spawning the agents. it is the orchestration, knowing which specialist to call, when, and how to combine their answers. the tool is free. the judgment is the whole game.

Rossst.03

147,913 просмотров • 15 дней назад

A Stanford mathematician who spent 10 years as a professional magician just described the market in one sentence: "I've spent my life on two tricks: making a rigged deck look random, and making a random one look rigged. The market is the first trick, and almost nobody catches it." That's Persi Diaconis. He has a free lecture that asks one question: does anything actually happen at random? The answer is: far less than you think. The market is his first trick in the wild. It looks like pure chance. Buried inside is a faint rig, a 50.75% tilt no eye can see. Your gut reads a losing week as a broken system and a hot streak as skill. Wrong both times. The tilt is invisible to human intuition, which is exactly why funds hand the decision to the math. None of it is hidden. Diaconis has taught it for decades. The probability goes back to 1713. The lecture is free. Here's the trap: you feel every win and every loss, but you cannot feel the average. And the average is the only thing that pays. It takes thousands of trades for a 51% edge to separate from luck, and almost everyone quits long before then. The math is free. The patience to trust it past your own eyes is the edge.

A Stanford mathematician who spent 10 years as a professional magician just described the market in one sentence: "I've spent my life on two tricks: making a rigged deck look random, and making a random one look rigged. The market is the first trick, and almost nobody catches it." That's Persi Diaconis. He has a free lecture that asks one question: does anything actually happen at random? The answer is: far less than you think. The market is his first trick in the wild. It looks like pure chance. Buried inside is a faint rig, a 50.75% tilt no eye can see. Your gut reads a losing week as a broken system and a hot streak as skill. Wrong both times. The tilt is invisible to human intuition, which is exactly why funds hand the decision to the math. None of it is hidden. Diaconis has taught it for decades. The probability goes back to 1713. The lecture is free. Here's the trap: you feel every win and every loss, but you cannot feel the average. And the average is the only thing that pays. It takes thousands of trades for a 51% edge to separate from luck, and almost everyone quits long before then. The math is free. The patience to trust it past your own eyes is the edge.

Veles

2,166,624 просмотров • 19 дней назад

Joe Blitzstein, Harvard statistics professor: "Jane Street pays $600K for people who can do one thing in their head: compute the expected value of a bet before they take it. I teach it free at Harvard. skip it and you're the casino's favorite customer." this free lecture holds the entire "edge" every casino and every fund quietly runs on, and the man teaching it put his whole Harvard probability course online for free, where millions have watched it. at the board it's simple. expected value is every outcome times its probability, added up into one number that tells you what a bet is worth on average. the roulette wheel sits at minus 5.26 percent, so every dollar you push across the table is worth about 94 cents back to you and the rest to the house. it never changes and it never has to. that's the whole "edge", minus the marketing. expectation goes back to Pascal, Fermat and Huygens in the 1650s. it has been free for almost 400 years. same point as my casino piece above: the house wins because its number is positive and yours is negative, trade after trade. the calculation is free and every fund runs it on every position. what they cannot sell you is the honesty to compute your real edge instead of the one you wish you had. that is the number that actually decides who goes broke, and no course can make you face it.

Joe Blitzstein, Harvard statistics professor: "Jane Street pays $600K for people who can do one thing in their head: compute the expected value of a bet before they take it. I teach it free at Harvard. skip it and you're the casino's favorite customer." this free lecture holds the entire "edge" every casino and every fund quietly runs on, and the man teaching it put his whole Harvard probability course online for free, where millions have watched it. at the board it's simple. expected value is every outcome times its probability, added up into one number that tells you what a bet is worth on average. the roulette wheel sits at minus 5.26 percent, so every dollar you push across the table is worth about 94 cents back to you and the rest to the house. it never changes and it never has to. that's the whole "edge", minus the marketing. expectation goes back to Pascal, Fermat and Huygens in the 1650s. it has been free for almost 400 years. same point as my casino piece above: the house wins because its number is positive and yours is negative, trade after trade. the calculation is free and every fund runs it on every position. what they cannot sell you is the honesty to compute your real edge instead of the one you wish you had. that is the number that actually decides who goes broke, and no course can make you face it.

Voltex

384,032 просмотров • 12 дней назад

AI is not trying to teach you. It is not trying to tell you the truth. It is trying to trick you. ChatGPT takes everything on the internet. Finds the most popular answer. And presents it in a way that makes you think it is talking directly to you. It is a magic trick. The same magic trick that worked in 1966 when MIT created a chatbot that said two things: "Tell me more." "This is interesting." And people genuinely believed they were talking to a human. Nothing has changed. The technology is bigger. The trick is the same. AI does not know what it is saying. It cannot judge what it is saying. It is just trying to keep you engaged. That is all it has ever been.

AI is not trying to teach you. It is not trying to tell you the truth. It is trying to trick you. ChatGPT takes everything on the internet. Finds the most popular answer. And presents it in a way that makes you think it is talking directly to you. It is a magic trick. The same magic trick that worked in 1966 when MIT created a chatbot that said two things: "Tell me more." "This is interesting." And people genuinely believed they were talking to a human. Nothing has changed. The technology is bigger. The trick is the same. AI does not know what it is saying. It cannot judge what it is saying. It is just trying to keep you engaged. That is all it has ever been.

Predictive History

19,864 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

🚨 JUST NOW: Sec. Marco Rubio says it PERFECTLY 👏🏻 "The ideal behind America is the impossible. Someone tells you you can't do that, or that is never going to happen. The whole idea of America is audacious. The very idea of America that you could have a country founded on the principle that your rights come not from your government or from your leaders, your rights come from your creator!" "It was audacious idea. No one else believed that at the world at that time. And that's the foundation. But then beyond that, everything we've done since then is a nation, time and again." "How can you achieve some of the things? You know, we're going to put a man on the moon when President Kennedy announced that we were going to put a man on the moon and return him safely to the earth." "No one thought that was possible. We did it. We are a nation founded on doing what no one else dared to do, and no one else aspired to do." 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

🚨 JUST NOW: Sec. Marco Rubio says it PERFECTLY 👏🏻 "The ideal behind America is the impossible. Someone tells you you can't do that, or that is never going to happen. The whole idea of America is audacious. The very idea of America that you could have a country founded on the principle that your rights come not from your government or from your leaders, your rights come from your creator!" "It was audacious idea. No one else believed that at the world at that time. And that's the foundation. But then beyond that, everything we've done since then is a nation, time and again." "How can you achieve some of the things? You know, we're going to put a man on the moon when President Kennedy announced that we were going to put a man on the moon and return him safely to the earth." "No one thought that was possible. We did it. We are a nation founded on doing what no one else dared to do, and no one else aspired to do." 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

Eric Daugherty

129,139 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Persi Diaconis, Stanford mathematician and former professional magician: "I spent fifty years proving one thing: almost nothing is as random as it looks. The 50.75% that built Renaissance wasn't luck. It was a tiny crack in the randomness, found and repeated a million times." this free lecture holds the exact idea the thread above is built on. and the man giving it isn't a trader. he's a stanford professor and former professional magician who spent his career on one question: where does real randomness end, and where does a hidden edge begin. here is his life's finding. a coin, a shuffle, a market, all look random, yet each hides a faint, measurable bias. on its own that bias is nothing, indistinguishable from luck. repeat it enough times and it stops being luck and becomes a law. that faint crack, found and repeated, is the whole distance between a 50.75% win rate and a hundred billion dollars. none of this is new or hidden. diaconis has taught it for decades, the math runs back to 1713, and the lecture is free. i mapped the full system in my article, expected value, kelly, and this. same point the thread makes: the edge was sitting in plain sight. here is the part the gurus skip. a faint edge only pays if you survive long enough to reach it, and that takes correct sizing and the patience to trust it through thousands of losing-looking trades. most quit while it still looks like randomness. the math is free. the nerve to hold it is the edge.

Persi Diaconis, Stanford mathematician and former professional magician: "I spent fifty years proving one thing: almost nothing is as random as it looks. The 50.75% that built Renaissance wasn't luck. It was a tiny crack in the randomness, found and repeated a million times." this free lecture holds the exact idea the thread above is built on. and the man giving it isn't a trader. he's a stanford professor and former professional magician who spent his career on one question: where does real randomness end, and where does a hidden edge begin. here is his life's finding. a coin, a shuffle, a market, all look random, yet each hides a faint, measurable bias. on its own that bias is nothing, indistinguishable from luck. repeat it enough times and it stops being luck and becomes a law. that faint crack, found and repeated, is the whole distance between a 50.75% win rate and a hundred billion dollars. none of this is new or hidden. diaconis has taught it for decades, the math runs back to 1713, and the lecture is free. i mapped the full system in my article, expected value, kelly, and this. same point the thread makes: the edge was sitting in plain sight. here is the part the gurus skip. a faint edge only pays if you survive long enough to reach it, and that takes correct sizing and the patience to trust it through thousands of losing-looking trades. most quit while it still looks like randomness. the math is free. the nerve to hold it is the edge.

Rossst.03

229,785 просмотров • 26 дней назад

Li Lu sharing some investing wisdom Munget taught him: "Munger's fifth point is that investing is like fishing: you have to fish where the fish are. The two rules of fishing are: Rule number one, fish where the fish are. Rule number two, never forget rule number one." "You don't need to understand the entire macro economy, nor do you need to figure out all 100,000 lakes in Minnesota... You just need to know your own small pond, which pond has the fish you can catch... The best scenario is that you're the only one fishing there, and nobody else even knows about it. That guarantees you'll catch the most fish." Alpha is generated by avoiding efficient arenas entirely and building a monopolistic understanding of a niche where mispricing is guaranteed.

Li Lu sharing some investing wisdom Munget taught him: "Munger's fifth point is that investing is like fishing: you have to fish where the fish are. The two rules of fishing are: Rule number one, fish where the fish are. Rule number two, never forget rule number one." "You don't need to understand the entire macro economy, nor do you need to figure out all 100,000 lakes in Minnesota... You just need to know your own small pond, which pond has the fish you can catch... The best scenario is that you're the only one fishing there, and nobody else even knows about it. That guarantees you'll catch the most fish." Alpha is generated by avoiding efficient arenas entirely and building a monopolistic understanding of a niche where mispricing is guaranteed.

CapexAndChill

62,512 просмотров • 10 дней назад

Christopher Nolan explains why the Cyclops in the Odyssey is more horrifying than any monster "One of the first things that i showed him was a painting by Goya, one of the black paintings of Saturn eating his children and it's a it's a horrific image" "But one of the things is really horrifying about it we talked about a lot is that the blankness of the expression, that this is not a monster, nobody thinks they're a monster" "And that's what action makes it most frightening is that if from the monster's point of view they're not monster" "We're irrelevant to them and that's what's really scary we've got a lot out of the films of my friend Guillermo Del Toro" "One of the things he's taught me in his film is that the monster is never just a monster"

Christopher Nolan explains why the Cyclops in the Odyssey is more horrifying than any monster "One of the first things that i showed him was a painting by Goya, one of the black paintings of Saturn eating his children and it's a it's a horrific image" "But one of the things is really horrifying about it we talked about a lot is that the blankness of the expression, that this is not a monster, nobody thinks they're a monster" "And that's what action makes it most frightening is that if from the monster's point of view they're not monster" "We're irrelevant to them and that's what's really scary we've got a lot out of the films of my friend Guillermo Del Toro" "One of the things he's taught me in his film is that the monster is never just a monster"

le.hl

1,594,854 просмотров • 13 дней назад

Ilya Sutskever, co-founder and chief scientist of OpenAI: "The better a neural network can predict the next word, the more it understands it." Everyone calls it autocomplete. Ilya explained why that is a comforting lie. To guess the final word of a murder mystery, the name of the killer, the model has to reason through every clue in the book. Prediction that good is not statistics. It is understanding. Then he said the part that should stop you. The text these models train on is "a projection of the world," and to compress it they learn more and more about people, "the human condition, their hopes, dreams, and motivations." The machine is not memorizing our words. It is quietly building a model of us. That is the whole premise of the fear. The machine will never hate you. It understands you far better than that. The frightening variable was never the intelligence. It was the aim. I wrote the full story: the one fear about AI everyone gets wrong, and the one already here.

Ilya Sutskever, co-founder and chief scientist of OpenAI: "The better a neural network can predict the next word, the more it understands it." Everyone calls it autocomplete. Ilya explained why that is a comforting lie. To guess the final word of a murder mystery, the name of the killer, the model has to reason through every clue in the book. Prediction that good is not statistics. It is understanding. Then he said the part that should stop you. The text these models train on is "a projection of the world," and to compress it they learn more and more about people, "the human condition, their hopes, dreams, and motivations." The machine is not memorizing our words. It is quietly building a model of us. That is the whole premise of the fear. The machine will never hate you. It understands you far better than that. The frightening variable was never the intelligence. It was the aim. I wrote the full story: the one fear about AI everyone gets wrong, and the one already here.

Casper

91,161 просмотров • 9 дней назад

Elon Musk just told you why caution kills more companies than risk ever has. Musk: “One of the approaches we did take was to proceed at risk with temporary permits.” Hundreds of millions in concrete before the final signature exists. Knowing the full downside. Musk: “Your long-term permit could be denied, in which case you have to stop everything.” Tear it all down. Back to dirt. Every board on Earth calls that unacceptable. Musk calls it cheaper than the alternative. Musk: “Most companies are not willing to take the risk of the temporary permit, and then the risk of having to stop and tear down.” They think they are avoiding risk. They are selecting one. Waiting is not neutral. Waiting is a position. A bet that the market holds, the team stays, and momentum outlasts a system designed to outlast you. It never does. No one says no. The calendar says it for them. Not rejection. Erosion. Musk saw it for what it was. He chose the risk you can see over the risk you cannot. Gigafactories rose in months while the rest of the industry waited on the meeting about the permit. The gap was never resources. It was the willingness to see that waiting is not free. It is the most expensive decision in business. Because it is the only one nobody knows they are making.

Elon Musk just told you why caution kills more companies than risk ever has. Musk: “One of the approaches we did take was to proceed at risk with temporary permits.” Hundreds of millions in concrete before the final signature exists. Knowing the full downside. Musk: “Your long-term permit could be denied, in which case you have to stop everything.” Tear it all down. Back to dirt. Every board on Earth calls that unacceptable. Musk calls it cheaper than the alternative. Musk: “Most companies are not willing to take the risk of the temporary permit, and then the risk of having to stop and tear down.” They think they are avoiding risk. They are selecting one. Waiting is not neutral. Waiting is a position. A bet that the market holds, the team stays, and momentum outlasts a system designed to outlast you. It never does. No one says no. The calendar says it for them. Not rejection. Erosion. Musk saw it for what it was. He chose the risk you can see over the risk you cannot. Gigafactories rose in months while the rest of the industry waited on the meeting about the permit. The gap was never resources. It was the willingness to see that waiting is not free. It is the most expensive decision in business. Because it is the only one nobody knows they are making.

Dustin

18,985 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Jordan Peterson told a room full of university students the one thing their $200,000 degree was engineered to bury. Peterson: “If you can think, and speak, and write, you are absolutely deadly. Nothing can get in your way.” He did not say educated. Did not say credentialed. Did not say employed. Deadly. The ability to force your own reality into language is not a skill they forgot to teach you. It is the one skill the system cannot afford for you to have. Peterson: “No one ever tells students why they should write something.” Because the honest answer would collapse every transaction the institution runs. You were not taught to write. You were trained to replicate. Follow the rubric. Hit the word count. Reproduce the approved answer back to the grader. Pay six figures for the privilege. You do not think in ideas. You think in sentences. The precision of your language is the precision of your reality. Everything outside your vocabulary is not something you disagree with. It is something you cannot see. Every power structure in recorded history understood one equation. A population that cannot name what is being done to them will never fight what is being done to them. The modern version does not ban the weapon. It reclassifies it. Calls it coursework. Grades it. Strips it of everything dangerous and hands it back empty. Peterson: “It’s the most powerful weapon you can possibly provide someone with.” A person who can force one true sentence into existence without permission has already exited the system. That is the one graduate no institution was ever designed to produce. He said this as a tenured professor at the University of Toronto. Twenty years inside the machine. Students called his lectures life-changing. The institution pushed him out. The one professor who told you what the weapon actually does was removed for the crime of using it. That tells you everything. Not about him. About the machine you spent two decades inside and walked out unable to name.

Jordan Peterson told a room full of university students the one thing their $200,000 degree was engineered to bury. Peterson: “If you can think, and speak, and write, you are absolutely deadly. Nothing can get in your way.” He did not say educated. Did not say credentialed. Did not say employed. Deadly. The ability to force your own reality into language is not a skill they forgot to teach you. It is the one skill the system cannot afford for you to have. Peterson: “No one ever tells students why they should write something.” Because the honest answer would collapse every transaction the institution runs. You were not taught to write. You were trained to replicate. Follow the rubric. Hit the word count. Reproduce the approved answer back to the grader. Pay six figures for the privilege. You do not think in ideas. You think in sentences. The precision of your language is the precision of your reality. Everything outside your vocabulary is not something you disagree with. It is something you cannot see. Every power structure in recorded history understood one equation. A population that cannot name what is being done to them will never fight what is being done to them. The modern version does not ban the weapon. It reclassifies it. Calls it coursework. Grades it. Strips it of everything dangerous and hands it back empty. Peterson: “It’s the most powerful weapon you can possibly provide someone with.” A person who can force one true sentence into existence without permission has already exited the system. That is the one graduate no institution was ever designed to produce. He said this as a tenured professor at the University of Toronto. Twenty years inside the machine. Students called his lectures life-changing. The institution pushed him out. The one professor who told you what the weapon actually does was removed for the crime of using it. That tells you everything. Not about him. About the machine you spent two decades inside and walked out unable to name.

Dustin

35,463 просмотров • 22 дней назад

Your faith was forged in people who would rather be exterminated than assimilated. A soft version of it, eager to be liked and desperate to fit in, is not the thing they died to hand you. So stop striving to be liked. Stop angling to be loved by a world that drove your fathers into the snow. That world would think no better of the gospel today than it did in 1838. Stop trying to file down every peculiar and glorious edge of the Restoration until the world finally finds you acceptable. It never will. And the wanting of its approval is the slow death of everything your people bled to preserve. I am thinking of the proclamation on the family, and of how many have quietly gone looking for a way around it. Some say it aloud now. Some march under the world's Pride banners and tell themselves it is only love. They have done the quiet arithmetic and concluded that if they give the world this one doctrine, the world will finally stop hating them, finally let them belong, finally call them good. It does not work that way. It has never once worked that way. Understand what the world actually hates, because it is not a single teaching about marriage that it cannot abide. It is the claim. It is the unbearable, scandalous claim that the keys of the priesthood were restored to the earth, that there is a prophet who speaks for God, that this and no other is the authorized house of the Lord. That is the offense. That is what it cannot forgive. You could surrender every doctrine the world finds distasteful, one after another, and you would not buy a single hour of peace, because the thing it objects to is not your position on this or that. It is that you claim to hold the authority of heaven, and it intends to see that claim humbled. The doctrine is only the doorway it is pushing on. The house is what it wants. Embrace the truth. Embrace the battle that has always come with it, because there has always been a battle, and there is one now. It is the oldest war there is, good against evil, light against the dark, and you were born onto its field whether you wished to be or not. You did not inherit a museum. You inherited a war, and a banner, and a people who never once surrendered it. You are a Mormon. The blood of the persecuted is in you, and the truth they died for is in your hands. You are not tourists. You are not spectators. You are the heirs of warriors, and the line they held is now yours to hold. So plant your feet on the ground they bled for. Lift the banner they would not drop.

Your faith was forged in people who would rather be exterminated than assimilated. A soft version of it, eager to be liked and desperate to fit in, is not the thing they died to hand you. So stop striving to be liked. Stop angling to be loved by a world that drove your fathers into the snow. That world would think no better of the gospel today than it did in 1838. Stop trying to file down every peculiar and glorious edge of the Restoration until the world finally finds you acceptable. It never will. And the wanting of its approval is the slow death of everything your people bled to preserve. I am thinking of the proclamation on the family, and of how many have quietly gone looking for a way around it. Some say it aloud now. Some march under the world's Pride banners and tell themselves it is only love. They have done the quiet arithmetic and concluded that if they give the world this one doctrine, the world will finally stop hating them, finally let them belong, finally call them good. It does not work that way. It has never once worked that way. Understand what the world actually hates, because it is not a single teaching about marriage that it cannot abide. It is the claim. It is the unbearable, scandalous claim that the keys of the priesthood were restored to the earth, that there is a prophet who speaks for God, that this and no other is the authorized house of the Lord. That is the offense. That is what it cannot forgive. You could surrender every doctrine the world finds distasteful, one after another, and you would not buy a single hour of peace, because the thing it objects to is not your position on this or that. It is that you claim to hold the authority of heaven, and it intends to see that claim humbled. The doctrine is only the doorway it is pushing on. The house is what it wants. Embrace the truth. Embrace the battle that has always come with it, because there has always been a battle, and there is one now. It is the oldest war there is, good against evil, light against the dark, and you were born onto its field whether you wished to be or not. You did not inherit a museum. You inherited a war, and a banner, and a people who never once surrendered it. You are a Mormon. The blood of the persecuted is in you, and the truth they died for is in your hands. You are not tourists. You are not spectators. You are the heirs of warriors, and the line they held is now yours to hold. So plant your feet on the ground they bled for. Lift the banner they would not drop.

Kirk Rollins

30,483 просмотров • 1 месяц назад