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Another FoFty video dropped today and he was talking about the private credit market being similar to 2008. (CLO vs CDO) Hidden debt has always caused the worst recessions / depressions. He's anticipating a similar scenario to 2008 with a rolling downtrend, but I'd argue the situation is similar... show more

Financelot

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56,740 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

Новости и политика Финансы

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Economic bubbles throughout history tend to follow similar patterns, but they are never exactly the same. In 1929 and 2008, there was a lot of debt — but most of it was owned by the private sector. Today, the government sector has a lot of the debt. Still, one man’s debts are another man’s assets. And when the bill comes due and the debt assets aren’t as appealing as the alternatives, some sort of monetization is inevitable. I recently sat down with CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin to discuss this in the context of his latest book, 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History — and How It Shattered a Nation. The parallels between that era and now are striking.

Economic bubbles throughout history tend to follow similar patterns, but they are never exactly the same. In 1929 and 2008, there was a lot of debt — but most of it was owned by the private sector. Today, the government sector has a lot of the debt. Still, one man’s debts are another man’s assets. And when the bill comes due and the debt assets aren’t as appealing as the alternatives, some sort of monetization is inevitable. I recently sat down with CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin to discuss this in the context of his latest book, 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History — and How It Shattered a Nation. The parallels between that era and now are striking.

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WAS THIS A BIDEN ADMINISTRATION PLAN TO CRASH THE MARKET IF TRUMP WAS ELECTED? Something needs to be done to stop a similar crash that happened in 2008. There are 400,000 backlogged foreclosures orchestrated by the Biden administration. What needs to be done? What should President Trump do about this?

WAS THIS A BIDEN ADMINISTRATION PLAN TO CRASH THE MARKET IF TRUMP WAS ELECTED? Something needs to be done to stop a similar crash that happened in 2008. There are 400,000 backlogged foreclosures orchestrated by the Biden administration. What needs to be done? What should President Trump do about this?

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Steve Keen called 2008 years out. Now he says the private debt unwind ahead is bigger: a depression, 1929 or worse. Rustin ties it to what's happening right now: the yen carry trade unwinding, the Treasury buying back its own bonds, Bessent quietly talking about marking gold to market. Samson Mow's answer to where it ends: rebase the dollar to one satoshi. 👇

Steve Keen called 2008 years out. Now he says the private debt unwind ahead is bigger: a depression, 1929 or worse. Rustin ties it to what's happening right now: the yen carry trade unwinding, the Treasury buying back its own bonds, Bessent quietly talking about marking gold to market. Samson Mow's answer to where it ends: rebase the dollar to one satoshi. 👇

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U.S .10 Year - U.S. 2 Year Yield Curve This is looking eerily similar to August 2008. There was a multi-month pullback in the lead up to the crash. This is also ironically occurred when there was a sudden surge in oil prices to $147 in July 2008. It basically collapsed consumer spending right when the economy was already extremely weak. The oil spike raised corporate operational costs, which triggered mass layoffs. You've probably seen me post this video before, but it highlights how the oil price spike triggered the ripple effects that followed. We're seeing the exact same thing now with the energy, fertilizer and helium crisis.

U.S .10 Year - U.S. 2 Year Yield Curve This is looking eerily similar to August 2008. There was a multi-month pullback in the lead up to the crash. This is also ironically occurred when there was a sudden surge in oil prices to $147 in July 2008. It basically collapsed consumer spending right when the economy was already extremely weak. The oil spike raised corporate operational costs, which triggered mass layoffs. You've probably seen me post this video before, but it highlights how the oil price spike triggered the ripple effects that followed. We're seeing the exact same thing now with the energy, fertilizer and helium crisis.

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𝗛𝗶𝘁𝗹𝗲𝗿 𝘃𝘀 𝗥𝗼𝘁𝗵𝘀𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗹𝗱 In 1932, German unemployment reached 30%, with nearly 7 million Germans unemployed. The country was burdened with significant debt to foreign powers. When Hitler came to power, he aimed to restore the German economy and liberate the nation from a debt-based system. Similar to Abraham Lincoln and John F. Kennedy, Hitler began issuing debt-free money. The subsequent events shaped history as we know it. The rest as they say is history.

𝗛𝗶𝘁𝗹𝗲𝗿 𝘃𝘀 𝗥𝗼𝘁𝗵𝘀𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗹𝗱 In 1932, German unemployment reached 30%, with nearly 7 million Germans unemployed. The country was burdened with significant debt to foreign powers. When Hitler came to power, he aimed to restore the German economy and liberate the nation from a debt-based system. Similar to Abraham Lincoln and John F. Kennedy, Hitler began issuing debt-free money. The subsequent events shaped history as we know it. The rest as they say is history.

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$BTC vs GOLD is breaking its 2026 downtrend, supported by Hidden Bullish Divergence. This setup has only happened 3 times before: The 2014, 2018, and 2022 bear market bottoms. In each instance, price formed a high low, while RSI printed a lower low, followed by a break to the downside.

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Manchester United legend Wayne Rooney talking about Mohamed Salah last season. “I don't think he gets the credit he deserves. Look at Phil Foden in a similar role. He's got another 8, 9 or 10 years to get to the numbers Salah is hitting. I'd like to see him get more credit.”

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On Aug 1, 2008, I quit finance to start WePay, only for Lehman Brothers to collapse two weeks later. It felt like the world was ending, yet 18 years later the S&P is up 5X and the financial crisis gave birth to a fintech revolution. Today something similar is happening 🧵👇

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Ray Dalio: “Debt problem is followed by devaluation of the currency.” Looks like this is exactly how the US will handle its debt problem. Kevin Warsh’s Fed will peg short-term rates to artificially low levels, and buy treasuries to keep them down, inflating the debt away. We saw this play out in the three decades following World War II, and it’s plausible that the US is preparing for a similar maneuver as Debt/GDP is currently over 120%. This is why central banks are dumping US debt and buying gold instead.

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Lacy was in disbelief when Clix accidentally leaked a massive future collaboration for TapCap after hinting that the brand’s next collab is with Fortnite 😳😭 “It’s similar to my career and it’s very similar to what Lacy is about to do in a week”

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Out now - my interview w/ world's largest in CLO equity (Collateralized Loan Obligations), Thomas Majewski, on: - "Private credit" is assuming some of the CLO world's riskiest loans - "Phone was lighting up" in September as banks rushed to offload credit risk to non-bank credit funds to meet capital requirements (this "regulatory capital relief market" is similar to credit default swap but employs a different instrument, the credit-linked note) - Private credit could be part golden age, part "biggest bubble in world" (I prompted him, not his original words). - CLOs are a "better bank" because there has "never been a run on them", and because "corporate America pays its bills," the senior corporate loans that make up CLOs are very unlike the subprime mortgages that made up CLO's problem cousin, the CDO, the structure that led to 2008. - He is quite clear that, in his *personal* opinion CLO equity offers the best risk/reward compared to other tranches. However, when it comes to private credit and BDCs (business development companies), there's a compelling case for being senior (i.e. lending to BDCs, rather than being an owner/equityholder) - The credit reality is worse than news, at least when it comes to senior loans. There were a grand total of 0 defaults in September. If the most predicted recession in history actually comes, he believes that **with due time**, CLO equity tranches will perform well because of they will be able to use par dollars to buy up discounted loans, as they did during 2008 Great Financial Crisis All of the above is my own paraphrasing of the interview, for exact quotes see the interview. It also comes with this official disclaimer: "any past performance discussed in this presentation is not indicative of, or a guarantee of, future performance." Enjoy 🔥

Out now - my interview w/ world's largest in CLO equity (Collateralized Loan Obligations), Thomas Majewski, on: - "Private credit" is assuming some of the CLO world's riskiest loans - "Phone was lighting up" in September as banks rushed to offload credit risk to non-bank credit funds to meet capital requirements (this "regulatory capital relief market" is similar to credit default swap but employs a different instrument, the credit-linked note) - Private credit could be part golden age, part "biggest bubble in world" (I prompted him, not his original words). - CLOs are a "better bank" because there has "never been a run on them", and because "corporate America pays its bills," the senior corporate loans that make up CLOs are very unlike the subprime mortgages that made up CLO's problem cousin, the CDO, the structure that led to 2008. - He is quite clear that, in his personal opinion CLO equity offers the best risk/reward compared to other tranches. However, when it comes to private credit and BDCs (business development companies), there's a compelling case for being senior (i.e. lending to BDCs, rather than being an owner/equityholder) - The credit reality is worse than news, at least when it comes to senior loans. There were a grand total of 0 defaults in September. If the most predicted recession in history actually comes, he believes that with due time, CLO equity tranches will perform well because of they will be able to use par dollars to buy up discounted loans, as they did during 2008 Great Financial Crisis All of the above is my own paraphrasing of the interview, for exact quotes see the interview. It also comes with this official disclaimer: "any past performance discussed in this presentation is not indicative of, or a guarantee of, future performance." Enjoy 🔥

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172,341 просмотров • 2 лет назад

Bernard Purdie reveals he was the one actually playing drums on 21 of The Beatles songs and that Ringo Starr was a fraud. He said the Beatles albums were shipped to America to be fixed by him and others Quincy Jones has said similar things about Starr and the Beatles. Jones said they were the worst musicians in the world

Bernard Purdie reveals he was the one actually playing drums on 21 of The Beatles songs and that Ringo Starr was a fraud. He said the Beatles albums were shipped to America to be fixed by him and others Quincy Jones has said similar things about Starr and the Beatles. Jones said they were the worst musicians in the world

GEN

667,993 просмотров • 2 лет назад

The entire global reset explained in 4 minutes. The system of global trade balances goes through a reset roughly every 2 decades. (1929, 1960, 1980, 2008 and 2026) This is what Iran, trade war and shipping blockades are all about. Either these meetings with China become a Bretton Woods 2.0 or the system violently resets through a deflationary bust. Both plans are being deployed simultaneously, which is why they've created the largest bubble since 1929. Either China plays ball and we get a gradual deflation or it is imposed to intentionally break the system.

The entire global reset explained in 4 minutes. The system of global trade balances goes through a reset roughly every 2 decades. (1929, 1960, 1980, 2008 and 2026) This is what Iran, trade war and shipping blockades are all about. Either these meetings with China become a Bretton Woods 2.0 or the system violently resets through a deflationary bust. Both plans are being deployed simultaneously, which is why they've created the largest bubble since 1929. Either China plays ball and we get a gradual deflation or it is imposed to intentionally break the system.

Financelot

87,893 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Rick Rule: Politically, the Fed will ultimately have to lower interest rates. We have entered an inflationary era similar to the 70s, but the fiscal situation is vastly different. - Debt/GDP: ~30% then vs ~123% now - Interest expense: ~$50B then vs ~$1.2T now - Deficits: ~1–4% then vs ~6% now In fact, the government now pays more in annual interest expenses than the entire US debt was in the late 70s. But it’s not just the government that can’t afford higher rates. Markets will feel it too: - Private credit - Consumer durables - Real estate All are heavily impacted by higher interest rates. Sooner rather than later, political pressure will force the Fed to lower rates. Volcker was able to hike aggressively because debt/GDP had been inflated away after WW2. Today, debt/GDP is above WW2-era levels, which is why the US can’t fight inflation the same way it did in the early 80s. First you inflate the debt away to a more manageable level... Then you raise rates to kill inflation. Not the other way around.

Rick Rule: Politically, the Fed will ultimately have to lower interest rates. We have entered an inflationary era similar to the 70s, but the fiscal situation is vastly different. - Debt/GDP: ~30% then vs ~123% now - Interest expense: ~$50B then vs ~$1.2T now - Deficits: ~1–4% then vs ~6% now In fact, the government now pays more in annual interest expenses than the entire US debt was in the late 70s. But it’s not just the government that can’t afford higher rates. Markets will feel it too: - Private credit - Consumer durables - Real estate All are heavily impacted by higher interest rates. Sooner rather than later, political pressure will force the Fed to lower rates. Volcker was able to hike aggressively because debt/GDP had been inflated away after WW2. Today, debt/GDP is above WW2-era levels, which is why the US can’t fight inflation the same way it did in the early 80s. First you inflate the debt away to a more manageable level... Then you raise rates to kill inflation. Not the other way around.

Lukas Ekwueme

54,518 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

The Fiscal Deficit has also come down. In 2020-2021, even with COVID, it was 9.3%. From there, we brought it down to 4.3%, the BE projection for 2026-27. In one stretch from there. We didn't violate the glide path, which was given in this house. We have completely abided by it. And that's why we've reached 4.3%. Global comparison is also important. Since 2008, the world's overall debt burden has increased 41%. China's debt exploded 139%. India has actually reduced its total debt burden by 4% of GDP. The US Debt to GDP stands at 124%. China at 88%. Japan at over 250%. India's combined figure, the Debt to GDP is 83% approximately. It is lower than most major economies and is on a declining path. And that too, after COVID. We have retained a sense of calm and given free vaccine to all the citizens, but still that fiscal deficit of 9.3% has been brought down. The erstwhile UPA couldn't withstand a global financial crisis which had a relatively limited impact on the Indian economy. Smt Nirmala Sitharaman in Lok Sabha (1/2)

The Fiscal Deficit has also come down. In 2020-2021, even with COVID, it was 9.3%. From there, we brought it down to 4.3%, the BE projection for 2026-27. In one stretch from there. We didn't violate the glide path, which was given in this house. We have completely abided by it. And that's why we've reached 4.3%. Global comparison is also important. Since 2008, the world's overall debt burden has increased 41%. China's debt exploded 139%. India has actually reduced its total debt burden by 4% of GDP. The US Debt to GDP stands at 124%. China at 88%. Japan at over 250%. India's combined figure, the Debt to GDP is 83% approximately. It is lower than most major economies and is on a declining path. And that too, after COVID. We have retained a sense of calm and given free vaccine to all the citizens, but still that fiscal deficit of 9.3% has been brought down. The erstwhile UPA couldn't withstand a global financial crisis which had a relatively limited impact on the Indian economy. Smt Nirmala Sitharaman in Lok Sabha (1/2)

Nirmala Sitharaman Office

41,656 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

VIDEO | As the Telangana government has taken over the Phase I of the Hyderabad Metro project from L&T, BRS leader KT Rama Rao (KTR) says, "There seems to be a hidden agenda of the Telangana government in taking over the debt burden of a private company on to the state's balance sheet. A debt of Rs 15,000 crore which was on private company's balance sheet is all of a sudden been taken over by the state government, there seems to be a some hidden agenda, malpractices, this was a random decision, there were no committees, no valuation was done, proper procedure was followed... L&T stocks have jumped 3 pc this morning. I want to know what was the benefit of the state?" #Telangana #HyderabadMetro #LarsenandToubro

VIDEO | As the Telangana government has taken over the Phase I of the Hyderabad Metro project from L&T, BRS leader KT Rama Rao (KTR) says, "There seems to be a hidden agenda of the Telangana government in taking over the debt burden of a private company on to the state's balance sheet. A debt of Rs 15,000 crore which was on private company's balance sheet is all of a sudden been taken over by the state government, there seems to be a some hidden agenda, malpractices, this was a random decision, there were no committees, no valuation was done, proper procedure was followed... L&T stocks have jumped 3 pc this morning. I want to know what was the benefit of the state?" #Telangana #HyderabadMetro #LarsenandToubro

Press Trust of India

28,134 просмотров • 11 месяцев назад