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Arthur Hayes says MicroStrategy is irrelevant now, just buy $IBIT or another bitcoin:native ETF "MicroStrategy was relevant for a hot second, whenever it was freaked out that Bitcoin might go to like 20,000 or whatever. But if we're in this period of money printing and soft yield curve control,...

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Laura Shin

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26,359 次观看 • 2 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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"Classic Polymarket having a poorly worded thing that wasn't thought through" Kain on the Polymarket MicroStrategy Bitcoin question mess "The actual question is, will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin by 05/31/2026? Yes. But it wasn't disclosed until June 1. Because there never is" "If you're saying we would only resolve this yes if it was announced, then it should say will MicroStrategy announce that they sold Bitcoin by the thirty first. But it doesn't say that" "It says will they sell it? And they did, pretty clearly, but they didn't announce that. And so here we are"
0:53

"Classic Polymarket having a poorly worded thing that wasn't thought through" Kain on the Polymarket MicroStrategy Bitcoin question mess "The actual question is, will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin by 05/31/2026? Yes. But it wasn't disclosed until June 1. Because there never is" "If you're saying we would only resolve this yes if it was announced, then it should say will MicroStrategy announce that they sold Bitcoin by the thirty first. But it doesn't say that" "It says will they sell it? And they did, pretty clearly, but they didn't announce that. And so here we are"

Laura Shin

12,471 次观看 • 2 个月前

If Bitcoin keeps going down, will MicroStrategy end up like FTX? Pio and Kaleo discuss the future of MicroStrategy. Pio: "Do you realistically think that $MSTR is going to have to sell 50,000 Bitcoin in the next two years?" Kaleo: "More, and I think it's their best option. They have made it their clear mission that they want to increase net Bitcoin, but what does that necessarily do to create value for $MSTR holders?" "I just think it's reckless right now, the way that $MSTR and the other assets are being advertised... MSTR is amplified Bitcoin... it's just a fancy word for saying it's leveraged." "You can also lose a lot more on the way down... they can't get rid of those dividends unless they buy $STRC back... the obligations accrue; they don't go away." "Look at what happened with FTX. Did anybody think that Bitcoin was going to go back down to 16k?... No. As Bitcoin price goes down, the MSTR compression of their multiple continues to go down."
4:40

If Bitcoin keeps going down, will MicroStrategy end up like FTX? Pio and Kaleo discuss the future of MicroStrategy. Pio: "Do you realistically think that $MSTR is going to have to sell 50,000 Bitcoin in the next two years?" Kaleo: "More, and I think it's their best option. They have made it their clear mission that they want to increase net Bitcoin, but what does that necessarily do to create value for $MSTR holders?" "I just think it's reckless right now, the way that $MSTR and the other assets are being advertised... MSTR is amplified Bitcoin... it's just a fancy word for saying it's leveraged." "You can also lose a lot more on the way down... they can't get rid of those dividends unless they buy $STRC back... the obligations accrue; they don't go away." "Look at what happened with FTX. Did anybody think that Bitcoin was going to go back down to 16k?... No. As Bitcoin price goes down, the MSTR compression of their multiple continues to go down."

Fibonacci 🥷

40,287 次观看 • 2 个月前

"Bitcoin's probably going towards 10,000, and we need to get MicroStrategy Saylor stopped out. There's only one thing that matters for him right now, Bitcoin has to go up" Mike McGlone on why crypto is in a severe bear market that's just getting started "Cryptos are in a severe, serious bear market and it should continue. Part of it is because we've got a lot of smart people who are not seeing the forest through the trees. The number one thing is rapidly advancing technology, which is bearish because there's an unlimited supply of cryptos" "Now we have to purge those, and we're just getting started. Bitcoin's just one of them. The fact that it's done what it's done this year is a good indication it's probably going towards 10,000" "There's only one thing that matters for Saylor right now, Bitcoin has to go up. And it's going down despite the stock market going up"
0:41

"Bitcoin's probably going towards 10,000, and we need to get MicroStrategy Saylor stopped out. There's only one thing that matters for him right now, Bitcoin has to go up" Mike McGlone on why crypto is in a severe bear market that's just getting started "Cryptos are in a severe, serious bear market and it should continue. Part of it is because we've got a lot of smart people who are not seeing the forest through the trees. The number one thing is rapidly advancing technology, which is bearish because there's an unlimited supply of cryptos" "Now we have to purge those, and we're just getting started. Bitcoin's just one of them. The fact that it's done what it's done this year is a good indication it's probably going towards 10,000" "There's only one thing that matters for Saylor right now, Bitcoin has to go up. And it's going down despite the stock market going up"

The Wolf Of All Streets

167,889 次观看 • 1 个月前

“I'm not a huge hater of the institutions. I wasn't a huge hater of altcoins. These institutional products are just kind of altcoins. People can go make their money. Go do your thing. But it's not Bitcoin. An ETF is not Bitcoin. With these centralized projects, you're not getting the core values of Bitcoin, the control, the censorship resistance, the privacy. You're putting it in a centralized wrapper, and if you put Bitcoin in a centralized wrapper, you lose everything that's good about it. It's not Bitcoin. It's just an affinity marketing thing. It's “Hey, you like Bitcoin, go buy my other project." Just like, "Hey you like bitcoin? Go buy my altcoin." It's not the same thing, and I think in many ways it's a step backwards. I don't hate these people, but they certainly shouldn't be celebrated. It's not forwarding our industry if we do treasury strategies, if we do ETFs, we cheer for BlackRock and Cantor. That's a step backwards. It's not something to be cheerful for. It's not a victory, in my opinion. A victory is having more people have direct ownership of real Bitcoin. We now have millions of people who've been onboarded into this fake paper thing that's a claim on a claim on a claim of something that has Bitcoin in the words, but it's not actually Bitcoin. They are never actually holding a wallet like many of us did back in 2012 where somebody sent us that first dollar and you say, "Wow, this is cool. I didn't need to give my ID and I'm able to control and hold this sound money for the first time." You now have a whole generation of millions of people that don't have that. They have some junk fiat product sitting like sludge on their centralized brokerage account at the centralized clearing firm, traded on a centralized exchange, with a centralized transfer agent, and a centralized custodian, and they have to trust six levels of people on a claim for something that has the word ‘Bitcoin’ in it. It's not a victory. It's not a step forward. I don't think it's something that should be celebrated at all.”
2:00

“I'm not a huge hater of the institutions. I wasn't a huge hater of altcoins. These institutional products are just kind of altcoins. People can go make their money. Go do your thing. But it's not Bitcoin. An ETF is not Bitcoin. With these centralized projects, you're not getting the core values of Bitcoin, the control, the censorship resistance, the privacy. You're putting it in a centralized wrapper, and if you put Bitcoin in a centralized wrapper, you lose everything that's good about it. It's not Bitcoin. It's just an affinity marketing thing. It's “Hey, you like Bitcoin, go buy my other project." Just like, "Hey you like bitcoin? Go buy my altcoin." It's not the same thing, and I think in many ways it's a step backwards. I don't hate these people, but they certainly shouldn't be celebrated. It's not forwarding our industry if we do treasury strategies, if we do ETFs, we cheer for BlackRock and Cantor. That's a step backwards. It's not something to be cheerful for. It's not a victory, in my opinion. A victory is having more people have direct ownership of real Bitcoin. We now have millions of people who've been onboarded into this fake paper thing that's a claim on a claim on a claim of something that has Bitcoin in the words, but it's not actually Bitcoin. They are never actually holding a wallet like many of us did back in 2012 where somebody sent us that first dollar and you say, "Wow, this is cool. I didn't need to give my ID and I'm able to control and hold this sound money for the first time." You now have a whole generation of millions of people that don't have that. They have some junk fiat product sitting like sludge on their centralized brokerage account at the centralized clearing firm, traded on a centralized exchange, with a centralized transfer agent, and a centralized custodian, and they have to trust six levels of people on a claim for something that has the word ‘Bitcoin’ in it. It's not a victory. It's not a step forward. I don't think it's something that should be celebrated at all.”

Bruce Fenton

23,882 次观看 • 8 个月前

"I don't see any scenario where you'd really want to own MSTR stock right now, given how dire the options are" Jeff Dorman ranks the Strategy capital structure from safest to riskiest "In a worst case where MicroStrategy defaults, you'd want to own the debt first. If you have $56 billion of Bitcoin backing $7 billion of debt, you're fully covered. Those would rise to par immediately if you thought default was imminent. That's the safest place" "The next safest is the preferred. There's only $15 billion of preferreds on top of $7 billion of debt, backed by $57 billion of Bitcoin. In a default you'll get your money back. But people buy them for the dividend, and if you cut it they fall 30 or 40 percent" "If you think default is four years out instead of one year and you can get 12 percent per year while you wait, that might be worth it. But the MSTR stock is the hardest one. I don't see any scenario where you'd want to own it right now"
3:24

"I don't see any scenario where you'd really want to own MSTR stock right now, given how dire the options are" Jeff Dorman ranks the Strategy capital structure from safest to riskiest "In a worst case where MicroStrategy defaults, you'd want to own the debt first. If you have $56 billion of Bitcoin backing $7 billion of debt, you're fully covered. Those would rise to par immediately if you thought default was imminent. That's the safest place" "The next safest is the preferred. There's only $15 billion of preferreds on top of $7 billion of debt, backed by $57 billion of Bitcoin. In a default you'll get your money back. But people buy them for the dividend, and if you cut it they fall 30 or 40 percent" "If you think default is four years out instead of one year and you can get 12 percent per year while you wait, that might be worth it. But the MSTR stock is the hardest one. I don't see any scenario where you'd want to own it right now"

Laura Shin

56,607 次观看 • 2 个月前

🚨 BOOM: Sec. Scott Bessent just laid it out PERFECTLY "Prices are going to come down VERY quickly. The conflict will end! If we look at the stock market, what is the stock market see right now? The stock market is looking through this. Corporate earnings are GOOD, employment is good and this gasoline, this temporary aberration will be over in a matter of weeks or a MONTH." 🔥
1:05

🚨 BOOM: Sec. Scott Bessent just laid it out PERFECTLY "Prices are going to come down VERY quickly. The conflict will end! If we look at the stock market, what is the stock market see right now? The stock market is looking through this. Corporate earnings are GOOD, employment is good and this gasoline, this temporary aberration will be over in a matter of weeks or a MONTH." 🔥

Eric Daugherty

36,226 次观看 • 3 个月前

🩸 THE BIGGEST BITCOIN TREASURY ON EARTH IS UNWINDING IN REAL TIME. Strategy is down 84% from its high. Tens of billions in market value gone. Its preferred stock $STRC was built to hold a $100 peg. It just broke to $75. Here is why this matters to all of Bitcoin. $MSTR did not just buy Bitcoin. It borrowed to buy Bitcoin. That structure is a rocket when price rises. And a trap when price falls. bitcoin:native is down 52% and the trap is closing. This is the leverage washing out of the entire market.
0:25

🩸 THE BIGGEST BITCOIN TREASURY ON EARTH IS UNWINDING IN REAL TIME. Strategy is down 84% from its high. Tens of billions in market value gone. Its preferred stock $STRC was built to hold a $100 peg. It just broke to $75. Here is why this matters to all of Bitcoin. $MSTR did not just buy Bitcoin. It borrowed to buy Bitcoin. That structure is a rocket when price rises. And a trap when price falls. bitcoin:native is down 52% and the trap is closing. This is the leverage washing out of the entire market.

Mister Crypto

17,277 次观看 • 1 个月前

“There was never any talk of the risk.” Peter Schiff is just lying at this point. The risk of $STRC was always obvious: it is preferred equity issued by a Bitcoin Treasury Company. Saylor said it clearly: if Bitcoin goes down long term or forever, that is the risk. And what are we seeing now? Bitcoin under pressure. Liquidity rotated into AI and IPOs. Maximum fear. STRC down. That is not some hidden scandal. That is risk premium repricing. Strategy does not magically control STRC’s market price. They can adjust the dividend rate, but the market prices the risk of Bitcoin and Strategy’s ability to keep paying dividends. And when Bitcoin starts going up again, what do you think happens? The same risk premium reprices in the other direction. If you buy preferred equity in a Bitcoin company, you are making one core assumption: Bitcoin goes up over the long term. That was never hidden.
0:42

“There was never any talk of the risk.” Peter Schiff is just lying at this point. The risk of $STRC was always obvious: it is preferred equity issued by a Bitcoin Treasury Company. Saylor said it clearly: if Bitcoin goes down long term or forever, that is the risk. And what are we seeing now? Bitcoin under pressure. Liquidity rotated into AI and IPOs. Maximum fear. STRC down. That is not some hidden scandal. That is risk premium repricing. Strategy does not magically control STRC’s market price. They can adjust the dividend rate, but the market prices the risk of Bitcoin and Strategy’s ability to keep paying dividends. And when Bitcoin starts going up again, what do you think happens? The same risk premium reprices in the other direction. If you buy preferred equity in a Bitcoin company, you are making one core assumption: Bitcoin goes up over the long term. That was never hidden.

Alex 👽

21,172 次观看 • 1 个月前

"What is the point of Bitcoin at this point?" 📉🤔 Nick O’Neill doesn't hold back on the state of the market. It’s not acting as a store of value, it’s completely un-correlating from tech stocks while they rip, and the Michael Saylor/MicroStrategy catalyst is flipping negative. If the tech is slow and the OG narrative is shifting, what's the actual thesis for holding?
1:54

"What is the point of Bitcoin at this point?" 📉🤔 Nick O’Neill doesn't hold back on the state of the market. It’s not acting as a store of value, it’s completely un-correlating from tech stocks while they rip, and the Michael Saylor/MicroStrategy catalyst is flipping negative. If the tech is slow and the OG narrative is shifting, what's the actual thesis for holding?

HENRY

98,388 次观看 • 2 个月前

Chris Camillo ranks Microstrategy $MSTR and Coinbase $COIN as low tier stocks "Microstrategy, F tier. These levered funds in something as volatile as Bitcoin; I hate it so much" "Coinbase, D. I don't have a lot of visibility into how crypto is going to play out over the next 10 years but I think Coinbase will do fine because they do a lot of institutional stuff"
0:38

Chris Camillo ranks Microstrategy $MSTR and Coinbase $COIN as low tier stocks "Microstrategy, F tier. These levered funds in something as volatile as Bitcoin; I hate it so much" "Coinbase, D. I don't have a lot of visibility into how crypto is going to play out over the next 10 years but I think Coinbase will do fine because they do a lot of institutional stuff"

Fibonacci 🥷

107,107 次观看 • 3 个月前

If you invest $1,000 in a stock, you can lose $1,000. But if you’re right, you can make $5,000, $10,000, or $20,000. In the stock market, you don’t need to be right all the time to win. What matters is this: when you find a solid company, don’t panic sell when the stock crashes. If possible, buy more — and most importantly, don’t sell. Selling great companies too early is a terrible mistake. 90% of success in the stock market is patience and the ability to not panic. Most of the time, you don’t need to do anything. Just wait
0:25

If you invest $1,000 in a stock, you can lose $1,000. But if you’re right, you can make $5,000, $10,000, or $20,000. In the stock market, you don’t need to be right all the time to win. What matters is this: when you find a solid company, don’t panic sell when the stock crashes. If possible, buy more — and most importantly, don’t sell. Selling great companies too early is a terrible mistake. 90% of success in the stock market is patience and the ability to not panic. Most of the time, you don’t need to do anything. Just wait

Daniel

365,301 次观看 • 5 个月前

Is Saylor selling Bitcoin low only to buy it back higher with STRC? "Clearly selling Bitcoin is not a problem, and the fact that he's not buying is seemingly not a problem for the market either. But the thing I'm wondering now, and this remains open ended, is now that he's selling Bitcoin to buy STRC, what happens when STRC inevitably gets back to a hundred bucks and the old machine of using STRC to buy Bitcoin kicks back into motion?" "Are they actually going to be selling STRC to buy Bitcoin back at a higher price? Are we selling the lows on Bitcoin after buying the highs, only to buy that Bitcoin back higher with the very same instrument he's buying back? I'd say Michael Saylor here is in a bit of a pickle" "Having this not be the main narrative for crypto at the moment is really good news. Michael Saylor spent years turning dollars into Bitcoin. Now he's discovered there's a reverse button, and I don't love it"
0:59

Is Saylor selling Bitcoin low only to buy it back higher with STRC? "Clearly selling Bitcoin is not a problem, and the fact that he's not buying is seemingly not a problem for the market either. But the thing I'm wondering now, and this remains open ended, is now that he's selling Bitcoin to buy STRC, what happens when STRC inevitably gets back to a hundred bucks and the old machine of using STRC to buy Bitcoin kicks back into motion?" "Are they actually going to be selling STRC to buy Bitcoin back at a higher price? Are we selling the lows on Bitcoin after buying the highs, only to buy that Bitcoin back higher with the very same instrument he's buying back? I'd say Michael Saylor here is in a bit of a pickle" "Having this not be the main narrative for crypto at the moment is really good news. Michael Saylor spent years turning dollars into Bitcoin. Now he's discovered there's a reverse button, and I don't love it"

The Wolf Of All Streets

36,187 次观看 • 12 天前

Michael Michael Saylor lays out Strategy: You buy Bitcoin with a variable rate perpetual preferred stock,” creating “what is in essence a nearly risk free swap.” Are you really overpaying at “8% or 9%” if you’re using that capital to buy an asset that keeps appreciating? “There’s only $30 million of Bitcoin available for sale every day and we’re buying all of it.” “What’s the best way to predict the future? It’s to determine the future." “If we basically buy $100 billion of Bitcoin, it’s probably not going up to 0%." ⚡
2:14

Michael Michael Saylor lays out Strategy: You buy Bitcoin with a variable rate perpetual preferred stock,” creating “what is in essence a nearly risk free swap.” Are you really overpaying at “8% or 9%” if you’re using that capital to buy an asset that keeps appreciating? “There’s only $30 million of Bitcoin available for sale every day and we’re buying all of it.” “What’s the best way to predict the future? It’s to determine the future." “If we basically buy $100 billion of Bitcoin, it’s probably not going up to 0%." ⚡

Bankless

11,866 次观看 • 4 个月前

Lyn Alden: You can compound at 20% returns buying businesses with zero growth. "If you go out and buy companies with no growth for five times earnings... you're buying a 20% earnings yield." "If you buy one and accumulate into another and another, you're actually internally compounding at a 20% rate of return compared to the stock market at say 12%." (Add a Bitcoin treasury and things gets interesting) FT Walker⚡️ Lyn Alden THE Bitcoin Podcast.
2:53

Lyn Alden: You can compound at 20% returns buying businesses with zero growth. "If you go out and buy companies with no growth for five times earnings... you're buying a 20% earnings yield." "If you buy one and accumulate into another and another, you're actually internally compounding at a 20% rate of return compared to the stock market at say 12%." (Add a Bitcoin treasury and things gets interesting) FT Walker⚡️ Lyn Alden THE Bitcoin Podcast.

Milk Road

27,469 次观看 • 25 天前

This was the most critical takeaway from the entire interview, yet no one is talking about it. Saylor’s final point was essentially this: you can’t extrapolate into the future based on historical data when the market structure has fundamentally shifted—and continues to do so. Before the approval of the Bitcoin ETFs (and the strategic emergence of Bitcoin accretive derivatives like MicroStrategy), 99% of the capital in the world didn’t have access to Bitcoin. Now, a significant portion of that capital finally has a viable on-ramp to Bitcoin. Take a moment to really consider the implications of that. In other words, the motorcycle has entered the bicycle race. ( Can I request Saylor on a motorcycle entering a bicycle race, please?) And all of your bicycle race data is worthless. Basically, If you're trading #Bitcoin or $MSTR based on historical data (and by extension, the old market structure), you’ll lose. Don’t just take my word for it—listen to Saylor himself: “the fundamental structure of the market is changing.” As a result, the outcomes will inevitably change too. Beyond that, Saylor’s core advice, shaped by his first four years in Bitcoin, is clear: hold through the volatility, stay solvent, and stick to the winning strategy—buy and hold. Bitcoin is intense, unpredictable, and nothing like the traditional markets. Don’t try to predict the beast that is Bitcoin. Prepare yourself for the roller coaster ahead, hold strong, and above all, enjoy the ride.
2:45

This was the most critical takeaway from the entire interview, yet no one is talking about it. Saylor’s final point was essentially this: you can’t extrapolate into the future based on historical data when the market structure has fundamentally shifted—and continues to do so. Before the approval of the Bitcoin ETFs (and the strategic emergence of Bitcoin accretive derivatives like MicroStrategy), 99% of the capital in the world didn’t have access to Bitcoin. Now, a significant portion of that capital finally has a viable on-ramp to Bitcoin. Take a moment to really consider the implications of that. In other words, the motorcycle has entered the bicycle race. ( Can I request Saylor on a motorcycle entering a bicycle race, please?) And all of your bicycle race data is worthless. Basically, If you're trading #Bitcoin or $MSTR based on historical data (and by extension, the old market structure), you’ll lose. Don’t just take my word for it—listen to Saylor himself: “the fundamental structure of the market is changing.” As a result, the outcomes will inevitably change too. Beyond that, Saylor’s core advice, shaped by his first four years in Bitcoin, is clear: hold through the volatility, stay solvent, and stick to the winning strategy—buy and hold. Bitcoin is intense, unpredictable, and nothing like the traditional markets. Don’t try to predict the beast that is Bitcoin. Prepare yourself for the roller coaster ahead, hold strong, and above all, enjoy the ride.

Mason

141,126 次观看 • 1 年前

Threadguy breaks down the recursive death spiral that could unwind Strategy "I don't fully understand the alchemy in the Strategy ecosystem, but here's what I do know. The only way you get Stretch back to peg, if it doesn't just trade there, is you raise the yield. It's at 11.5% and clearly that's not enough, so he has to push it to 12, 13, 14, 15." "But to pay a bigger dividend you have to raise more cash, which means issuing more MSTR and diluting shareholders, and this whole time Bitcoin has to go up to justify the MNAV. If it doesn't, demand for Stretch drops, so you raise the yield again, dilute again, MSTR goes down again, MNAV gets hurt again. It just eats itself." "I'm not calling the death of anything, people way smarter than me like it. But I'm not touching this thing with a 10 foot pole. For 11%? You're out of your mind."
1:38

Threadguy breaks down the recursive death spiral that could unwind Strategy "I don't fully understand the alchemy in the Strategy ecosystem, but here's what I do know. The only way you get Stretch back to peg, if it doesn't just trade there, is you raise the yield. It's at 11.5% and clearly that's not enough, so he has to push it to 12, 13, 14, 15." "But to pay a bigger dividend you have to raise more cash, which means issuing more MSTR and diluting shareholders, and this whole time Bitcoin has to go up to justify the MNAV. If it doesn't, demand for Stretch drops, so you raise the yield again, dilute again, MSTR goes down again, MNAV gets hurt again. It just eats itself." "I'm not calling the death of anything, people way smarter than me like it. But I'm not touching this thing with a 10 foot pole. For 11%? You're out of your mind."

Kai

15,114 次观看 • 2 个月前

Anyone who thinks that Truth Social is a good stock buy, keep in mind that President Trump will own the majority of the shares, and if he's reelected, he will ethically and legally need to divest from them. That means that if Trump does the ethical thing, he would have to sell all of his stock, or put in in a blind trust where he can't touch it. There is no way in my mind how that wouldn't completely obliterate the price of the shares. If Trump doesn't do the ethical thing, and he keeps the shares with full access to them, that means that any foreign government could short the stock, with a promise to buy back even more if Trump does what they wish. It would be open for blatant corruption. It's either terrible for the stock, terrible for America, or both. Investing in a company that is hardly profitable, has censored free speech and has banned people is already bad enough. Now throw in this mess.
0:45

Anyone who thinks that Truth Social is a good stock buy, keep in mind that President Trump will own the majority of the shares, and if he's reelected, he will ethically and legally need to divest from them. That means that if Trump does the ethical thing, he would have to sell all of his stock, or put in in a blind trust where he can't touch it. There is no way in my mind how that wouldn't completely obliterate the price of the shares. If Trump doesn't do the ethical thing, and he keeps the shares with full access to them, that means that any foreign government could short the stock, with a promise to buy back even more if Trump does what they wish. It would be open for blatant corruption. It's either terrible for the stock, terrible for America, or both. Investing in a company that is hardly profitable, has censored free speech and has banned people is already bad enough. Now throw in this mess.

Ed Krassenstein

1,498,937 次观看 • 2 年前