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$ASML says it is already close to securing all the EUV orders needed for 2027 as memory lithography revenue surges 75% this year. The company is expanding Low-NA EUV capacity by 30% in 2027 to ~85 systems and is evaluating another 30% increase for 2028.

Shay Boloor

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116,827 views • 2 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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$ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet says customers are sharing longer-than-usual visibility into their own business, which has translated into strong order bookings through the first half of 2026, and ASML is adding about 30% EUV capacity in 2027 while evaluating another 30% for 2028. "Based on everything we have said so far, you can imagine that we are having very constructive discussions with our customers on the long term. Their own visibility to their business allows them to share with us also, longer than, I would say, usual visibility on their business. We are talking of course about next year, but also beyond that. Now this has also translated practically into very strong order bookings through the first half of 2026." "If we look into more detail starting with 2027, there we are pretty much already close to receive all the EUV orders we need for 2027. This is with us adding about 30% capacity for EUV in 2027 versus 2026." "When we look at 2028, we have received already a large number of orders from our customers for EUV. This has also invited us very strongly to investigate another 30% increase in our EUV capacity for 2028." "Now, of course, when EUV grows DUV grows as well. Immersion is going to be important. Also for 2027 and for 2028 we are going to look into a 30% increase of our capacity for both years." ____ Follow Fireside Alpha for more daily highlights of key business and technology conversations.

$ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet says customers are sharing longer-than-usual visibility into their own business, which has translated into strong order bookings through the first half of 2026, and ASML is adding about 30% EUV capacity in 2027 while evaluating another 30% for 2028. "Based on everything we have said so far, you can imagine that we are having very constructive discussions with our customers on the long term. Their own visibility to their business allows them to share with us also, longer than, I would say, usual visibility on their business. We are talking of course about next year, but also beyond that. Now this has also translated practically into very strong order bookings through the first half of 2026." "If we look into more detail starting with 2027, there we are pretty much already close to receive all the EUV orders we need for 2027. This is with us adding about 30% capacity for EUV in 2027 versus 2026." "When we look at 2028, we have received already a large number of orders from our customers for EUV. This has also invited us very strongly to investigate another 30% increase in our EUV capacity for 2028." "Now, of course, when EUV grows DUV grows as well. Immersion is going to be important. Also for 2027 and for 2028 we are going to look into a 30% increase of our capacity for both years." ____ Follow Fireside Alpha for more daily highlights of key business and technology conversations.

Fireside Alpha

30,680 views • 2 months ago

These machines don’t look like they build the future of AI. But they do. What you are seeing is not an industrial robot just move. It is part of the process that makes the world’s most advanced chips possible. TRUMPF laser systems are used to manufacture key components for ASML’s EUV lithography machines. ❗️Without this step, modern AI hardware would simply not exist. • They machine parts with nanometer-level precision • They enable the optics and components needed for EUV lithography • Their stability directly affects chip yield and quality • No TRUMPF lasers, no ASML EUV. No EUV, no advanced AI chips. It is easy to focus on GPUs and models. But the real bottleneck sits much deeper in the industrial stack. —- Weekly robotics and AI insights. Subscribe free:

These machines don’t look like they build the future of AI. But they do. What you are seeing is not an industrial robot just move. It is part of the process that makes the world’s most advanced chips possible. TRUMPF laser systems are used to manufacture key components for ASML’s EUV lithography machines. ❗️Without this step, modern AI hardware would simply not exist. • They machine parts with nanometer-level precision • They enable the optics and components needed for EUV lithography • Their stability directly affects chip yield and quality • No TRUMPF lasers, no ASML EUV. No EUV, no advanced AI chips. It is easy to focus on GPUs and models. But the real bottleneck sits much deeper in the industrial stack. —- Weekly robotics and AI insights. Subscribe free:

Ilir Aliu

99,899 views • 9 months ago

If $MU confirms tomorrow that DRAM, NAND and HBM tightness can last into 2027 or 2028 then memory companies have more reason to keep spending on capacity and advanced manufacturing tools. That matters for $ASML because it sits at the most important equipment layer of the semiconductor supply chain where more advanced memory capacity means more demand for lithography systems.

If $MU confirms tomorrow that DRAM, NAND and HBM tightness can last into 2027 or 2028 then memory companies have more reason to keep spending on capacity and advanced manufacturing tools. That matters for $ASML because it sits at the most important equipment layer of the semiconductor supply chain where more advanced memory capacity means more demand for lithography systems.

Shay Boloor

431,992 views • 3 months ago

These machines don’t look like they build the future of AI. But they do. What you are seeing is not an industrial robot just move. It is part of the process that makes the world’s most advanced chips possible. TRUMPF laser systems are used to manufacture key components for ASML’s EUV lithography machines. ❗️Without this step, modern AI hardware would simply not exist. • They machine parts with nanometer-level precision • They enable the optics and components needed for EUV lithography • Their stability directly affects chip yield and quality • No TRUMPF lasers, no ASML EUV. No EUV, no advanced AI chips. It is easy to focus on GPUs and models. But the real bottleneck sits much deeper in the industrial stack. ——- Weekly robotics and AI insights. Subscribe free:

These machines don’t look like they build the future of AI. But they do. What you are seeing is not an industrial robot just move. It is part of the process that makes the world’s most advanced chips possible. TRUMPF laser systems are used to manufacture key components for ASML’s EUV lithography machines. ❗️Without this step, modern AI hardware would simply not exist. • They machine parts with nanometer-level precision • They enable the optics and components needed for EUV lithography • Their stability directly affects chip yield and quality • No TRUMPF lasers, no ASML EUV. No EUV, no advanced AI chips. It is easy to focus on GPUs and models. But the real bottleneck sits much deeper in the industrial stack. ——- Weekly robotics and AI insights. Subscribe free:

Ilir Aliu

43,443 views • 1 month ago

ASML unveiled an upgrade for the light source in its EUV process that increases power from 600W to 1,000W. This improvement could increase wafer yields by as much as 50% by 2030.

ASML unveiled an upgrade for the light source in its EUV process that increases power from 600W to 1,000W. This improvement could increase wafer yields by as much as 50% by 2030.

Bearly AI

603,870 views • 7 months ago

SITUATION EXPLAINED: A Chinese state-backed company started mass-producing DUV lithography tools, a step below EUV but still significant. • ASML shares fell as much as 6.5%, their lowest since early June, after The Information reported a Shanghai-based, state-backed company began mass-producing immersion DUV lithography machines • The company is Shanghai Yuliangsheng, with ties to Huawei and the SiCarrier equipment group, it brought together immersion DUV development teams from other Chinese firms • Plans call for 5 tools this year and 20 next year, with confirmed customers SMIC, CXMT, and Hua Hong Semiconductor • Real caveat: SMIC has actually been trialing this tool since September 2025, and active mass production isn't targeted until 2027 at the earliest • Independent analysis from the AI Futures Project puts commercial-scale Chinese immersion DUV in the mid-2030s, with ASML still holding 98.7% of the immersion lithography market • Chinese chipmakers are currently only allowed to buy ASML's older DUV tools, not its cutting-edge EUV machines • The MATCH Act, moving through Congress, would widen restrictions specifically on immersion DUV equipment • China is separately developing its own domestic EUV machine, but that project remains at the prototype stage and is likely years away from producing working chips • Nikon and Canon are the only other established DUV/lithography vendors outside ASML, alongside SMEE as another Chinese domestic challenger Theo Jaffee: "Someone has to own the bottom of the market. Chinese DUV would be the same thing for ASML. The frontier leading-edge chip fabs will still be using ASML EUV machines, but less leading-edge fabs would use DUV machines, like, for example, it would be really helpful for Huawei."

SITUATION EXPLAINED: A Chinese state-backed company started mass-producing DUV lithography tools, a step below EUV but still significant. • ASML shares fell as much as 6.5%, their lowest since early June, after The Information reported a Shanghai-based, state-backed company began mass-producing immersion DUV lithography machines • The company is Shanghai Yuliangsheng, with ties to Huawei and the SiCarrier equipment group, it brought together immersion DUV development teams from other Chinese firms • Plans call for 5 tools this year and 20 next year, with confirmed customers SMIC, CXMT, and Hua Hong Semiconductor • Real caveat: SMIC has actually been trialing this tool since September 2025, and active mass production isn't targeted until 2027 at the earliest • Independent analysis from the AI Futures Project puts commercial-scale Chinese immersion DUV in the mid-2030s, with ASML still holding 98.7% of the immersion lithography market • Chinese chipmakers are currently only allowed to buy ASML's older DUV tools, not its cutting-edge EUV machines • The MATCH Act, moving through Congress, would widen restrictions specifically on immersion DUV equipment • China is separately developing its own domestic EUV machine, but that project remains at the prototype stage and is likely years away from producing working chips • Nikon and Canon are the only other established DUV/lithography vendors outside ASML, alongside SMEE as another Chinese domestic challenger Theo Jaffee: "Someone has to own the bottom of the market. Chinese DUV would be the same thing for ASML. The frontier leading-edge chip fabs will still be using ASML EUV machines, but less leading-edge fabs would use DUV machines, like, for example, it would be really helpful for Huawei."

MTS

16,220 views • 2 months ago

ASML's EUV machine is one of the most complex machines ever built by humanity. Some *insane* stats about it: → Without EUV machines, it's impossible to manufacture cutting-edge chips for things like $AAPL iPhones, $NVDA GPUs, and $AMZN data centers. → $ASML is the *only* producers of EUV machines in the world. → Shipping a single EUV machine requires 40 freight containers, three cargo planes, and 20 trucks. → Each EUV machine costs around $200M, consists of more than 100,000 parts and weighs 200 tonnes. → The mirrors inside (supplied by Zeiss) are said to be the flattest objects ever produced. If scaled up to the size of Germany, the largest unevenness would be a tenth of a millimeter. → The next generation High-NA EUV systems have been shipped to $INTC and $TSM and costs closer to $400M. This is human ingenuity at its best. Thanks Intel for the fab tour!

ASML's EUV machine is one of the most complex machines ever built by humanity. Some insane stats about it: → Without EUV machines, it's impossible to manufacture cutting-edge chips for things like $AAPL iPhones, $NVDA GPUs, and $AMZN data centers. → $ASML is the only producers of EUV machines in the world. → Shipping a single EUV machine requires 40 freight containers, three cargo planes, and 20 trucks. → Each EUV machine costs around $200M, consists of more than 100,000 parts and weighs 200 tonnes. → The mirrors inside (supplied by Zeiss) are said to be the flattest objects ever produced. If scaled up to the size of Germany, the largest unevenness would be a tenth of a millimeter. → The next generation High-NA EUV systems have been shipped to $INTC and $TSM and costs closer to $400M. This is human ingenuity at its best. Thanks Intel for the fab tour!

Quartr

76,853 views • 1 year ago

Does anyone realize that if SpaceX pulls this off, Terafab would become the largest building ever constructed by floor area? More than 100 million square feet of manufacturing space, over 5x the floor area of the current largest building on Earth. I wanted to wait before reporting because news was coming out quite rapidly after the until announcement. SpaceX and Tesla are planning to invest roughly $16.8 billion in the initial buildout in Grimes County, Texas. It will manufacture, package and test advanced logic and memory chips under one roof because their combined demand is expected to exceed 1 terawatt of compute, more than the current global supply. The buildout is already so massive that ASML, (the only supplier of the most advanced EUV lithography machines) is factoring Terafab demand into its own 2027 and 2028 capacity plans. Elon’s rough estimate is that 25% of its AI compute output will go toward Tesla Optimus and the other 75% toward AI spacecraft. ASML has to plan years in advance for the sheer amount of chipmaking capacity Elon wants for robots and ‘ai spacecraft’

Does anyone realize that if SpaceX pulls this off, Terafab would become the largest building ever constructed by floor area? More than 100 million square feet of manufacturing space, over 5x the floor area of the current largest building on Earth. I wanted to wait before reporting because news was coming out quite rapidly after the until announcement. SpaceX and Tesla are planning to invest roughly $16.8 billion in the initial buildout in Grimes County, Texas. It will manufacture, package and test advanced logic and memory chips under one roof because their combined demand is expected to exceed 1 terawatt of compute, more than the current global supply. The buildout is already so massive that ASML, (the only supplier of the most advanced EUV lithography machines) is factoring Terafab demand into its own 2027 and 2028 capacity plans. Elon’s rough estimate is that 25% of its AI compute output will go toward Tesla Optimus and the other 75% toward AI spacecraft. ASML has to plan years in advance for the sheer amount of chipmaking capacity Elon wants for robots and ‘ai spacecraft’

Chris

81,393 views • 1 month ago

‼️U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick is concerned one of ASML's lithography chipmaking machines may have ended up in China. ASML's extreme ultraviolet lithography machines cost around $370 million and take multiple 747s to transport. ASML denies the allegation, saying it has never shipped an EUV machine to China.

‼️U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick is concerned one of ASML's lithography chipmaking machines may have ended up in China. ASML's extreme ultraviolet lithography machines cost around $370 million and take multiple 747s to transport. ASML denies the allegation, saying it has never shipped an EUV machine to China.

International Cyber Digest

118,144 views • 3 months ago

Here are 20 companies that will dominate the AI age: 1/ ASML $ASML is revolutionizing the semiconductor industry by enabling chipmakers to produce the world’s most advanced processors with atomic-scale precision. Shrinking transistors to fit more power into smaller chips faces fundamental physical limits. The industry struggled with escalating costs, slower innovation cycles, and diminishing returns from older lithography methods. With $ASML, the process is radically different, its extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines use cutting-edge optics and physics to etch circuitry at the nanometer scale, enabling faster, more energy-efficient, and more powerful chips. This breakthrough is the backbone of progress in AI, cloud computing, smartphones, and virtually every advanced technology. As AI spreads to all aspects of our economies, an ever-growing number of chips is needed, driving demand for ASML machines and maintenance services.

Here are 20 companies that will dominate the AI age: 1/ ASML $ASML is revolutionizing the semiconductor industry by enabling chipmakers to produce the world’s most advanced processors with atomic-scale precision. Shrinking transistors to fit more power into smaller chips faces fundamental physical limits. The industry struggled with escalating costs, slower innovation cycles, and diminishing returns from older lithography methods. With $ASML, the process is radically different, its extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines use cutting-edge optics and physics to etch circuitry at the nanometer scale, enabling faster, more energy-efficient, and more powerful chips. This breakthrough is the backbone of progress in AI, cloud computing, smartphones, and virtually every advanced technology. As AI spreads to all aspects of our economies, an ever-growing number of chips is needed, driving demand for ASML machines and maintenance services.

Ray Myers

307,502 views • 1 year ago

“The Economy Is Bad And People Are Suffering Yet Tinubu Is Busy Campaigning Already For 2027. Are You Even Sure Tinubu Is GOING TO be ALIVE By 2027”.-Man Says

“The Economy Is Bad And People Are Suffering Yet Tinubu Is Busy Campaigning Already For 2027. Are You Even Sure Tinubu Is GOING TO be ALIVE By 2027”.-Man Says

Somto Okonkwo

29,821 views • 1 year ago

$TMDX is gonna keep expanding in Europe, Middle East and "maybe" Australia, the company is gonna keep buying more planes and the CEO reiterates 10,000 transplants by 2028 Such a nice oportunity right now CEO: "2027 Is gonna be the year of the kidney" Targets: 10,000 transplants by 2028 20,000 transplants by 2030 30,000 transplants by 2032

$TMDX is gonna keep expanding in Europe, Middle East and "maybe" Australia, the company is gonna keep buying more planes and the CEO reiterates 10,000 transplants by 2028 Such a nice oportunity right now CEO: "2027 Is gonna be the year of the kidney" Targets: 10,000 transplants by 2028 20,000 transplants by 2030 30,000 transplants by 2032

Bourbon Capital

61,525 views • 6 months ago

Gavin Baker accurately predicted Micron's 10x run in 2025 Now he's making his next big call: "DRAM is probably going to be 30 to 40% of all hyperscaler CapEx next year, every hundreds of billions of dollars spent goes straight to DRAM" He calls it the single most important bottleneck in all of AI, above lasers, power chips, NAND or HDDs, Elon is even turning the TeraFab toward memory because he sees the same thing Only three firms on earth can make the memory these AI servers need "This is as close to magic as science can get" And Micron just locked in supply contracts covering half its revenue, with floor prices already above the margin peaks of past cycles, the economics of the stock are not what they were "If you still hold $MU at a commodity discount to $ASML and $LRCX, that discount is no longer earned" bookmark it, one of the strongest memory theses for 2026-2027 ↓

Gavin Baker accurately predicted Micron's 10x run in 2025 Now he's making his next big call: "DRAM is probably going to be 30 to 40% of all hyperscaler CapEx next year, every hundreds of billions of dollars spent goes straight to DRAM" He calls it the single most important bottleneck in all of AI, above lasers, power chips, NAND or HDDs, Elon is even turning the TeraFab toward memory because he sees the same thing Only three firms on earth can make the memory these AI servers need "This is as close to magic as science can get" And Micron just locked in supply contracts covering half its revenue, with floor prices already above the margin peaks of past cycles, the economics of the stock are not what they were "If you still hold $MU at a commodity discount to $ASML and $LRCX, that discount is no longer earned" bookmark it, one of the strongest memory theses for 2026-2027 ↓

Damir Akaza

821,815 views • 3 months ago

Stanley Druckenmiller ran a hedge fund for 30 years without a single losing year, averaging 30% annually. His #1 rule: never invest in the present. Invest in where the company is going to be in 18-24 months. Here are 10 stocks I'm investing in for the FUTURE: 1. $VST - Vistra Vistra has roughly 3,800MW of 20-year nuclear power agreements signed with Meta and Amazon. The Meta deals cover three plants and purchases start late this year. The 1,200MW Comanche Peak agreement with Amazon starts delivering power in late 2027. It's also buying about 5,500MW of gas plants from Cogentrix, expected to close later this year. Vistra is roughly 94% hedged for 2027 and 72% hedged for 2028, and its 2027 EBITDA opportunity range of $7.4B to $7.8B doesn't yet include Cogentrix or the Meta contracts.

Stanley Druckenmiller ran a hedge fund for 30 years without a single losing year, averaging 30% annually. His #1 rule: never invest in the present. Invest in where the company is going to be in 18-24 months. Here are 10 stocks I'm investing in for the FUTURE: 1. $VST - Vistra Vistra has roughly 3,800MW of 20-year nuclear power agreements signed with Meta and Amazon. The Meta deals cover three plants and purchases start late this year. The 1,200MW Comanche Peak agreement with Amazon starts delivering power in late 2027. It's also buying about 5,500MW of gas plants from Cogentrix, expected to close later this year. Vistra is roughly 94% hedged for 2027 and 72% hedged for 2028, and its 2027 EBITDA opportunity range of $7.4B to $7.8B doesn't yet include Cogentrix or the Meta contracts.

Jason Luongo

132,381 views • 11 days ago

The cleanest test of the AI cycle is what $NVDA is actually shipping, and current expectations still point to revenue climbing from ~$95B this quarter toward ~$110B next quarter. If revenue keeps rising while gross margins hold around 75% then it becomes much harder to argue the compute boom is already rolling over. That demand base is still expanding too with $SPCX potentially growing from ~4% of Nvidia revenue today toward 10% by the end of 2027 as its compute buildout scales.

The cleanest test of the AI cycle is what $NVDA is actually shipping, and current expectations still point to revenue climbing from ~$95B this quarter toward ~$110B next quarter. If revenue keeps rising while gross margins hold around 75% then it becomes much harder to argue the compute boom is already rolling over. That demand base is still expanding too with $SPCX potentially growing from ~4% of Nvidia revenue today toward 10% by the end of 2027 as its compute buildout scales.

Shay Boloor

103,768 views • 1 month ago

This video of how an $ASML EUV machine works will blown your mind. Some *insane* stats about it: → Without EUV machines, it's impossible to manufacture cutting-edge chips for things like $AAPL iPhones, $NVDA GPUs, and $AMZN data centers. → ASML is the *only* producers of EUV machines in the world. → Each EUV machine costs around $200M, consists of 100,000 parts and weighs 200 tonnes. → The mirrors inside (supplied by Zeiss) are said to be the flattest objects ever produced. If scaled up to the size of Germany, the largest unevenness would be a tenth of a millimeter. Thanks Intel for the Fab tour! 🙌 Enjoy! Leandro Dissecting the Markets Invest In Assets 📈 Beth Kindig Chris Miller The Future Investors Stefan Thelenius Bastiaan Shay Boloor ユーエスさん🇺🇸米国株投資🍺🥃🍷🍶⚽ Paul Triolo

This video of how an $ASML EUV machine works will blown your mind. Some insane stats about it: → Without EUV machines, it's impossible to manufacture cutting-edge chips for things like $AAPL iPhones, $NVDA GPUs, and $AMZN data centers. → ASML is the only producers of EUV machines in the world. → Each EUV machine costs around $200M, consists of 100,000 parts and weighs 200 tonnes. → The mirrors inside (supplied by Zeiss) are said to be the flattest objects ever produced. If scaled up to the size of Germany, the largest unevenness would be a tenth of a millimeter. Thanks Intel for the Fab tour! 🙌 Enjoy! Leandro Dissecting the Markets Invest In Assets 📈 Beth Kindig Chris Miller The Future Investors Stefan Thelenius Bastiaan Shay Boloor ユーエスさん🇺🇸米国株投資🍺🥃🍷🍶⚽ Paul Triolo

Quartr

348,546 views • 3 years ago

#WATCH | Addressing the Budget session, Delhi CM Rekha Gupta says, "This year, we have put 70.3% for revenue expenditure and 29.7% for capital expenditure (in the budget). We are also going to do more capital expenditure than last year. For the year 2025-2026, the tax and GSDP ratio was 4.95%. And for the year 2026-2027, this percentage is expected to be 5.09%, which is better than last year. With this, Delhi's revenue surplus is going to be Rs 9,092 crore this year." (Source: Delhi Assembly)

#WATCH | Addressing the Budget session, Delhi CM Rekha Gupta says, "This year, we have put 70.3% for revenue expenditure and 29.7% for capital expenditure (in the budget). We are also going to do more capital expenditure than last year. For the year 2025-2026, the tax and GSDP ratio was 4.95%. And for the year 2026-2027, this percentage is expected to be 5.09%, which is better than last year. With this, Delhi's revenue surplus is going to be Rs 9,092 crore this year." (Source: Delhi Assembly)

ANI

12,138 views • 6 months ago

TerraFab: Tesla + SpaceX + xAI consolidate silicon. One plant. Design → fab → package. Target: 1 TW annual AI compute. ASML High-NA EUV is the choke point $400M machines, multi-year backlog. 2028 volume production is impossible under the current model. Bypass: free-electron laser. Central particle accelerator generates continuous EUV. Split the beam. Photons as a service. One light source feeds the entire floor. X-Light (Pat Gelsinger) commercializing the same tech on the same 2028 timeline. Own the photons. Own the energy. Own the silicon. Decouple AI from legacy tool limits. Orbit-ready radiation-hardened chips become possible. This is vertical integration taken to the light source itself.

TerraFab: Tesla + SpaceX + xAI consolidate silicon. One plant. Design → fab → package. Target: 1 TW annual AI compute. ASML High-NA EUV is the choke point $400M machines, multi-year backlog. 2028 volume production is impossible under the current model. Bypass: free-electron laser. Central particle accelerator generates continuous EUV. Split the beam. Photons as a service. One light source feeds the entire floor. X-Light (Pat Gelsinger) commercializing the same tech on the same 2028 timeline. Own the photons. Own the energy. Own the silicon. Decouple AI from legacy tool limits. Orbit-ready radiation-hardened chips become possible. This is vertical integration taken to the light source itself.

Lacey

20,956 views • 1 month ago

$ASML has become one of the clearest ways to invest in the global AI chip buildout because it controls one of the most important bottlenecks in semiconductor manufacturing. Its lithography systems act like ultra-precise printers that create the tiny circuit patterns used in advanced chips and ASML remains the only company producing EUV machines at scale. $TSM cannot manufacture $NVDA Blackwell or Rubin GPUs without those systems which means nearly every dollar flowing into advanced AI compute ultimately passes through ASML’s equipment.

$ASML has become one of the clearest ways to invest in the global AI chip buildout because it controls one of the most important bottlenecks in semiconductor manufacturing. Its lithography systems act like ultra-precise printers that create the tiny circuit patterns used in advanced chips and ASML remains the only company producing EUV machines at scale. $TSM cannot manufacture $NVDA Blackwell or Rubin GPUs without those systems which means nearly every dollar flowing into advanced AI compute ultimately passes through ASML’s equipment.

Shay Boloor

62,457 views • 2 months ago

Dylan on why memory prices will double again: "Memory can only grow capacity low double digit percentages a year. 20-30% a year, even less for NAND, a little bit higher for DRAM, but whatever. Even though the demand signal was very strong at the end of 2025, the memory companies immediately started reacting. None of that incremental capacity really gets here until 2028, even if they wanted to build as fast as possible. So the result is memory prices have gone through the roof. They're going to double and triple again. DRAM, especially. People are like, "oh, the memory story is overplayed." No, you don't get it. DRAM will double or triple from here still, because that's how much capacity is required. And they have to steal capacity from somewhere else. And the only way to steal capacity from somewhere else in a capitalist economy is demand destruction via higher pricing."

Dylan on why memory prices will double again: "Memory can only grow capacity low double digit percentages a year. 20-30% a year, even less for NAND, a little bit higher for DRAM, but whatever. Even though the demand signal was very strong at the end of 2025, the memory companies immediately started reacting. None of that incremental capacity really gets here until 2028, even if they wanted to build as fast as possible. So the result is memory prices have gone through the roof. They're going to double and triple again. DRAM, especially. People are like, "oh, the memory story is overplayed." No, you don't get it. DRAM will double or triple from here still, because that's how much capacity is required. And they have to steal capacity from somewhere else. And the only way to steal capacity from somewhere else in a capitalist economy is demand destruction via higher pricing."

Patrick OShaughnessy

189,478 views • 5 months ago