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🇵🇾 B2G Dashboard Launch & $1,000 DEX Swap Event! Connecting Paraguay’s public education system with XCLASS! 🎁 50% Match Bonus (Swap min. $2 ➔ Get up to $2 in $XIIID) 👉 Submit Form: 🏫 B2G Admin Dashboard • X.QMS / X.MMS / X.AMS: Public education management suite • MEC...

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XIIID

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31,587 görüntüleme • 20 gün önce •via X (Twitter)

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XIIID profil fotoğrafı
XIIID20 gün önce

🏫 B2G Admin Dashboard • X.QMS / X.MMS / X.AMS & MEC Framework 🔗 XCLASS Token Layer (X.TMS) • Utility Loop: Learning ➔ XPoints ➔ $XIIID Token

Wimzy profil fotoğrafı
Wimzy19 gün önce

Hold and strong to #XIIID #Solana

Joanne Mcgregory(💙,🧡)$BEYOND profil fotoğrafı
Joanne Mcgregory(💙,🧡)$BEYOND20 gün önce

#XIIID #Solana Just grabbed some $XIIID. Holding tight in my wallet until the results are announced on Sept 12th! Let's go!

𝘛𝘪𝘨𝘦𝘳 profil fotoğrafı
𝘛𝘪𝘨𝘦𝘳20 gün önce

A $1,000 swap event plus the B2G dashboard launch definitely caught my attention #XIIID #Solana

Donte Macdiarmid profil fotoğrafı
Donte Macdiarmid20 gün önce

It is great to see such consistent innovation and progress

gloamjelly♡ profil fotoğrafı
gloamjelly♡20 gün önce

opening the doors for future talent, lets grow

Ankur profil fotoğrafı
Ankur20 gün önce

#XIIID #Solana Good luck team for the updates

Boo 👻 profil fotoğrafı
Boo 👻20 gün önce

The Learning ➜ XPoints ➜ XIIID loop is a pretty interesting concept #XIIID #Solana

Kathryn Garcia profil fotoğrafı
Kathryn Garcia20 gün önce

#XIIID #Solana B2G has always been a challenging model, but if XCLASS succeeds in Paraguay, the potential for global expansion is immense.

World Space Web3 profil fotoğrafı
World Space Web320 gün önce

Good Event #XIIID #Solana

Rachel Williams profil fotoğrafı
Rachel Williams20 gün önce

#XIIID #Solana Integrating blockchain and AI into schools through XCLASS is a highly practical approach. It is something to look forward to.

Danekas profil fotoğrafı
Danekas20 gün önce

Paraguay could become an interesting example of blockchain meeting public education. #XIIID #Solana

Rose 🌶️ profil fotoğrafı
Rose 🌶️20 gün önce

The B2G dashboard makes the whole XCLASS ecosystem feel much more practical #XIIID #Solana

MD ARIF profil fotoğrafı
MD ARIF18 gün önce

Great initiative by B2G! 🚀 Excited for the dashboard launch and the $1,000 DEX swap event. 💙 #XIIID #Solana

Rumzz🍒 profil fotoğrafı
Rumzz🍒19 gün önce

success for the project 🚀

BloomSo (❖,❖) profil fotoğrafı
BloomSo (❖,❖)20 gün önce

Connecting public education with blockchain utility is definitely worth watching. #XIIID #Solana

Joshua Smith profil fotoğrafı
Joshua Smith20 gün önce

#XIIID #Solana The B2G (Business-to-Government) model is tough to crack, but XCLASS pulling this off with the MEC is a massive game-changer.

Flora (❖,❖) profil fotoğrafı
Flora (❖,❖)20 gün önce

This is an interesting step for XCLASS, especially with real education use cases in Paraguay #XIIID #Solana

Pvadnal profil fotoğrafı
Pvadnal19 gün önce

Interesting to see XCLASS building a utility loop from learning and XPoints toward the $XIIID ecosystem. The Paraguay education integration could be an important step for real-world adoption. #XIIID #XCLASS

Bunty 🚢 profil fotoğrafı
Bunty 🚢19 gün önce

The B2G Dashboard connecting Paraguay’s public education system with XCLASS is an interesting real-world use case. The on-chain verification through XWallet also adds transparency. #XIIID #Solana

Holben profil fotoğrafı
Holben20 gün önce

Real-world adoption is what I want to see more of in Web3. This looks promising. #XIIID #Solana

Papai Adan profil fotoğrafı
Papai Adan20 gün önce

The project is gaining momentum in a very positive way

WachsmuthWachsmuth RosemaryRosemary profil fotoğrafı
WachsmuthWachsmuth RosemaryRosemary20 gün önce

#XIIID #Solana Complete transparency in education via XWallet's on-chain tracking? Count me in. This is revolutionary.

Alfred Rutagengwa profil fotoğrafı
Alfred Rutagengwa19 gün önce

#XIIID #Solana Just grabbed some $XIIID. Holding tight in my wallet until the results are announced on Sept 12th! Let's go!

Hannah Ray profil fotoğrafı
Hannah Ray20 gün önce

#XIIID #Solana Huge milestone integrating directly with Paraguay's public education system! Real-world utility is exactly what crypto needs right now.

Temmydee🐂🀄️ profil fotoğrafı
Temmydee🐂🀄️20 gün önce

Great

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INTRODUCING SYMPHONY REWARDS: SWAP, EARN, & POWER UP New Infrastructure Upgrade and Campaign Goes Live at ~1pm ET/5pm UTC tomorrow, Tuesday, October 14, 2025 Symphony Exchange ( was built to be the most efficient, intuitive, and transparent DEX aggregator on Sei. While we're still in the early stages of our journey, one thing has always been clear: our community deserves to be rewarded for participating in the ecosystem we’re building. Today, we're excited to introduce Symphony Rewards, a long-term incentive program designed to reward real traders, build loyalty, and track participation for future rewards, including future Symphony tokens. Rewarding You With $SEIYAN Although Symphony does not yet have a native token, we’re enabling rewards through our sister project SEIYAN on SEI, which will also serve as a foundation for future incentive programs. ~5,000,000 $SEIYAN has been initially allocated for Symphony Rewards in its current phase. 2 basis point rebate (value calculated at the time of your trade) is rewarded per swap, excluding stablecoin-to-stablecoins and wrapping/unwrapping. Rewards claimable weekly, subject to ongoing adjustments and updates to anti-cheating mechanisms (including protections against sybil and wash trading; excessive attempts may result in exclusion of the wallets) This current campaign phase starts mid-day on October 14th and will last until all rewards are distributed. Power Level: Your On-Chain Reputation Every trader on Symphony will have a Power Level, which represents your aggregate trade volume across the platform. Your Power Level is more than just a number -- it's a reflection of your activity, consistency, and contribution to the Symphony ecosystem. This metric will be used as a tracking mechanism for potential future rewards, including the eventual Symphony token and other partner initiatives. Major Product Upgrade Alongside the launch of Symphony Rewards, we’re introducing two key improvements to enhance your trading experience: -Portfolio & Activity Log: You can now view your on-chain holdings and trade history directly by clicking the wallet button after connecting. -Speed Boost: Our quoting system has been optimized for sub-second response times, ensuring faster and more reliable trade execution across supported pools: Average old version API response time: 2828.84ms Average new version API response time: 395.98ms This translates to a whopping ~2.5 second average time difference! The Road Ahead Symphony is committed to building a sustainable and community-driven liquidity layer for Sei. Symphony Rewards is just the first step in that journey -- a way to recognize early adopters and contributors who are helping us shape the future of DeFi aggregation on Sei. We will also continue to explore ways to integrate more tightly with SEIYAN on SEI as well as other tokens on Sei. Trade. Earn. Build your Power Level. And stay tuned -- the Symphony has only just begun.
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INTRODUCING SYMPHONY REWARDS: SWAP, EARN, & POWER UP New Infrastructure Upgrade and Campaign Goes Live at ~1pm ET/5pm UTC tomorrow, Tuesday, October 14, 2025 Symphony Exchange ( was built to be the most efficient, intuitive, and transparent DEX aggregator on Sei. While we're still in the early stages of our journey, one thing has always been clear: our community deserves to be rewarded for participating in the ecosystem we’re building. Today, we're excited to introduce Symphony Rewards, a long-term incentive program designed to reward real traders, build loyalty, and track participation for future rewards, including future Symphony tokens. Rewarding You With $SEIYAN Although Symphony does not yet have a native token, we’re enabling rewards through our sister project SEIYAN on SEI, which will also serve as a foundation for future incentive programs. ~5,000,000 $SEIYAN has been initially allocated for Symphony Rewards in its current phase. 2 basis point rebate (value calculated at the time of your trade) is rewarded per swap, excluding stablecoin-to-stablecoins and wrapping/unwrapping. Rewards claimable weekly, subject to ongoing adjustments and updates to anti-cheating mechanisms (including protections against sybil and wash trading; excessive attempts may result in exclusion of the wallets) This current campaign phase starts mid-day on October 14th and will last until all rewards are distributed. Power Level: Your On-Chain Reputation Every trader on Symphony will have a Power Level, which represents your aggregate trade volume across the platform. Your Power Level is more than just a number -- it's a reflection of your activity, consistency, and contribution to the Symphony ecosystem. This metric will be used as a tracking mechanism for potential future rewards, including the eventual Symphony token and other partner initiatives. Major Product Upgrade Alongside the launch of Symphony Rewards, we’re introducing two key improvements to enhance your trading experience: -Portfolio & Activity Log: You can now view your on-chain holdings and trade history directly by clicking the wallet button after connecting. -Speed Boost: Our quoting system has been optimized for sub-second response times, ensuring faster and more reliable trade execution across supported pools: Average old version API response time: 2828.84ms Average new version API response time: 395.98ms This translates to a whopping ~2.5 second average time difference! The Road Ahead Symphony is committed to building a sustainable and community-driven liquidity layer for Sei. Symphony Rewards is just the first step in that journey -- a way to recognize early adopters and contributors who are helping us shape the future of DeFi aggregation on Sei. We will also continue to explore ways to integrate more tightly with SEIYAN on SEI as well as other tokens on Sei. Trade. Earn. Build your Power Level. And stay tuned -- the Symphony has only just begun.

Symphony Exchange

14,981 görüntüleme • 11 ay önce

Here's why $NEAR is a no-brainer in 2025 👇 Everybody loves NEAR Protocol and there is a reason for that (or many). Near is well-positioned to be one of the leading blockchain ecosystems this year. Let’s explore the “whys”. TIMESTAMPS Quick Bio – 00:00:15 Inflation Reduction Proposal – 00:00:43 Technically Speaking – 00:02:40 Near Intents – 00:03:37 Chain Signatures and AI – 00:04:39 Decentralization and DeFi – 00:05:59 I have my Near account since March 2023, but it has been inactive for a while, as I was focused on other stuff. However, the recent inflation halving proposal by HOT DAO (HOT Protocol 🔥) and LiNEAR (LiNEAR Protocol) brought my eyes back to the project and I really like what I’m seeing. So, here’s my first point. If this proposal passes, NEAR could lead the way in what appears to be a market trend of improving the tokenomics, as more and more experts realize holders have been overpaying for these networks' security, with a too high supply inflation. Solana tried something similar, but the proposal was rejected. In my opinion, validators voting favorably to that show a commitment to the chain for the long term. On the other hand, voting against it signals a short-term vision focused on milking the emissions as much as possible, at the ecosystem’s expense. The voting currently goes with 28% “YEA” votes, needing 66.76% to pass. Most of the validators who already cast their votes went with the yes. 2pilot, avb, openshards, qbit, sicmundus, fox, and intear are, so far, the only seven who voted “NAY”. This proposal has the vocal support of most influential figures in the Near ecosystem, including the Near Foundation (NEAR Foundation), led by Illia (root.near) (🇺🇦, ⋈), which makes me believe it will pass and show the power of the halving in getting the market’s attention and presenting a huge investment asymmetry for the native token right now. Is this everything I like about NEAR? Definitely not. This is just what got me looking at it again, just to discover a (very much) thriving ecosystem, full of interesting things happening at the same time. I’ll mention a few, but there is (much) more. Technically speaking, Near is a high-performance blockchain, with really low fees and one of the fastest finalities, with 600ms block time and approximately 1.8s finality. It also has my favorite architecture for internet-scale scalability, using sharding, while keeping a high decentralization standard. As a learning programmer, Near also has one of the best dev experiences (in my limited opinion). The documentation is clear, has a logical journey, presenting from the basic anatomy in details to more complex SDKs and tools. I’m also in love with the near-cli-rs. A command line interface program written in Rust for seamless interaction with the Near blockchain. Allowing wallet creation, chain query, sending transactions, staking, smart contract calls, and more. Near Intents. This was the second thing to get my attention, while studying the project again, and it sets a whole new standard for blockchain interactions, especially cross-chain. Basically, users can declare an intention (for example, swap Ethereum-USDT to Bitcoin) and a network of solvers, running on Near, will find the best path to accomplish this task. We recently saw an impressive 465k-worth swap happening in exactly this example, paying 0.55% of trading fees to thorswap.near and swapkit.near. According to a Dune Dashboard, the protocol accumulates nearly $400 million in volume since its launch not long ago, in November 2024. *obs.: half this volume was achieved in the last month. Massive! Near Intents is possible due to two other very interesting things: (i) Chain abstraction, and (ii) a solid AI infrastructure. Chain abstraction (via Chain Signatures) is a powerful interoperability feature, allowing Near to friendly connect different blockchains as if they were part of a single network. Users and devs benefit from wallet, address, fees, and cross-chain bridges abstractions - not even noticing they are interacting with multiple chains. One wallet that powers everything. Powered by Near. On AI, Near is just built differently. Not for the hype, but for the solution. The team has been looking for AI solutions much before the ChatGPT fever. Actually, they started as an AI company, pivoting to blockchain later. So, being one of the most promising networks for the growing AI economy was just the natural path to follow. There is an extensive and super complete research piece on that topic, recently published by Reflexivity Research (Reflexivity Research) on July 1st. It presents Near as an AI-optimized blockchain, covering AITP, Shade Agents, x402, Near Intents, and more. Definitely worth the reading. Wrapping up this content with one more aspect that really matters to me is how Near remains truthful to decentralization, data ownership, censorship-resistance and open-source primitives that have been increasingly abandoned by other key players. A simple example of that is how the Near Foundation decided to deprecate its public APIs, encouraging the surge of a more decentralized and competitive market of SaaS projects, with a highlight to Lava Network, that recently appeared in my timeline talking about that. DeFi is also huge on Near, leveraging all the previous properties I mentioned, creating a truly decentralized liquidity pool via Rhea Finance, connected with other chains like BTC, Ethereum, ZCash, and more. All that contributes to Near having the second-largest monthly active addresses, with nearly 50 million, only losing to Solana’s nearly 90 million. In the meantime, NEAR, the token, is not even at the 30rd position by market cap. Crazy stuff. To (finally) wrap it up, I also want to mention Near’s consensus decentralization. While having a low node-count, the network has a Nakamoto Coefficient of 11, which is not bad at all. Surely, there is still room for improvement, which is possible as becoming a validator is accessible staking and hardware-wise. If you liked this content, make sure to click the like bottom and share it around. Follow me on X or subscribe to my YouTube channel, both at vinibarbosabr. See ya!
7:52

Here's why $NEAR is a no-brainer in 2025 👇 Everybody loves NEAR Protocol and there is a reason for that (or many). Near is well-positioned to be one of the leading blockchain ecosystems this year. Let’s explore the “whys”. TIMESTAMPS Quick Bio – 00:00:15 Inflation Reduction Proposal – 00:00:43 Technically Speaking – 00:02:40 Near Intents – 00:03:37 Chain Signatures and AI – 00:04:39 Decentralization and DeFi – 00:05:59 I have my Near account since March 2023, but it has been inactive for a while, as I was focused on other stuff. However, the recent inflation halving proposal by HOT DAO (HOT Protocol 🔥) and LiNEAR (LiNEAR Protocol) brought my eyes back to the project and I really like what I’m seeing. So, here’s my first point. If this proposal passes, NEAR could lead the way in what appears to be a market trend of improving the tokenomics, as more and more experts realize holders have been overpaying for these networks' security, with a too high supply inflation. Solana tried something similar, but the proposal was rejected. In my opinion, validators voting favorably to that show a commitment to the chain for the long term. On the other hand, voting against it signals a short-term vision focused on milking the emissions as much as possible, at the ecosystem’s expense. The voting currently goes with 28% “YEA” votes, needing 66.76% to pass. Most of the validators who already cast their votes went with the yes. 2pilot, avb, openshards, qbit, sicmundus, fox, and intear are, so far, the only seven who voted “NAY”. This proposal has the vocal support of most influential figures in the Near ecosystem, including the Near Foundation (NEAR Foundation), led by Illia (root.near) (🇺🇦, ⋈), which makes me believe it will pass and show the power of the halving in getting the market’s attention and presenting a huge investment asymmetry for the native token right now. Is this everything I like about NEAR? Definitely not. This is just what got me looking at it again, just to discover a (very much) thriving ecosystem, full of interesting things happening at the same time. I’ll mention a few, but there is (much) more. Technically speaking, Near is a high-performance blockchain, with really low fees and one of the fastest finalities, with 600ms block time and approximately 1.8s finality. It also has my favorite architecture for internet-scale scalability, using sharding, while keeping a high decentralization standard. As a learning programmer, Near also has one of the best dev experiences (in my limited opinion). The documentation is clear, has a logical journey, presenting from the basic anatomy in details to more complex SDKs and tools. I’m also in love with the near-cli-rs. A command line interface program written in Rust for seamless interaction with the Near blockchain. Allowing wallet creation, chain query, sending transactions, staking, smart contract calls, and more. Near Intents. This was the second thing to get my attention, while studying the project again, and it sets a whole new standard for blockchain interactions, especially cross-chain. Basically, users can declare an intention (for example, swap Ethereum-USDT to Bitcoin) and a network of solvers, running on Near, will find the best path to accomplish this task. We recently saw an impressive 465k-worth swap happening in exactly this example, paying 0.55% of trading fees to thorswap.near and swapkit.near. According to a Dune Dashboard, the protocol accumulates nearly $400 million in volume since its launch not long ago, in November 2024. *obs.: half this volume was achieved in the last month. Massive! Near Intents is possible due to two other very interesting things: (i) Chain abstraction, and (ii) a solid AI infrastructure. Chain abstraction (via Chain Signatures) is a powerful interoperability feature, allowing Near to friendly connect different blockchains as if they were part of a single network. Users and devs benefit from wallet, address, fees, and cross-chain bridges abstractions - not even noticing they are interacting with multiple chains. One wallet that powers everything. Powered by Near. On AI, Near is just built differently. Not for the hype, but for the solution. The team has been looking for AI solutions much before the ChatGPT fever. Actually, they started as an AI company, pivoting to blockchain later. So, being one of the most promising networks for the growing AI economy was just the natural path to follow. There is an extensive and super complete research piece on that topic, recently published by Reflexivity Research (Reflexivity Research) on July 1st. It presents Near as an AI-optimized blockchain, covering AITP, Shade Agents, x402, Near Intents, and more. Definitely worth the reading. Wrapping up this content with one more aspect that really matters to me is how Near remains truthful to decentralization, data ownership, censorship-resistance and open-source primitives that have been increasingly abandoned by other key players. A simple example of that is how the Near Foundation decided to deprecate its public APIs, encouraging the surge of a more decentralized and competitive market of SaaS projects, with a highlight to Lava Network, that recently appeared in my timeline talking about that. DeFi is also huge on Near, leveraging all the previous properties I mentioned, creating a truly decentralized liquidity pool via Rhea Finance, connected with other chains like BTC, Ethereum, ZCash, and more. All that contributes to Near having the second-largest monthly active addresses, with nearly 50 million, only losing to Solana’s nearly 90 million. In the meantime, NEAR, the token, is not even at the 30rd position by market cap. Crazy stuff. To (finally) wrap it up, I also want to mention Near’s consensus decentralization. While having a low node-count, the network has a Nakamoto Coefficient of 11, which is not bad at all. Surely, there is still room for improvement, which is possible as becoming a validator is accessible staking and hardware-wise. If you liked this content, make sure to click the like bottom and share it around. Follow me on X or subscribe to my YouTube channel, both at vinibarbosabr. See ya!

Vini B |「 thecoding 」

40,183 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

💛 ทุกวินาทีในวิดีโอนี้…คือความตั้งใจที่เราอยากมอบให้ทุกคนได้สัมผัส JANUA LIMITED BOX SET ตัวเต็ม พร้อมแล้วสำหรับทุกคนที่รอคอย 💛 เตรียมตัวให้พร้อม! พบกับการเปิดขายในวันที่ 3 พฤศจิกายน 2568 เพราะ “เซอร์ไพรส์ในกล่อง” คุ้มค่าแก่การรอคอยมากจริง ๆ ✨ ⸻ หมายเหตุ : 1.รายละเอียดสินค้าภายในกล่อง Mine Wish Limited Edition 50ml – 1 ชิ้น มูลค่า 490.- Mine Wish Festive Design 30ml – 1 ชิ้น มูลค่า 290.- Mine Wish Festive Design 30ml – 1 ชิ้น มูลค่า 290.- Dreamy Cloud Festive Design 30ml – 1 ชิ้น มูลค่า 290.- Kiss Me More Festive Design 30ml – 1 ชิ้น มูลค่า 290.- Passion Love Festive Design 30ml – 1 ชิ้น มูลค่า 290.- Juicy Mallow New Collection 15ml – 1 ชิ้น มูลค่า 219.- Cotton Cloud New Collection 15ml – 1 ชิ้น มูลค่า 219.- Sugar Bunny New Collection 15ml – 1 ชิ้น มูลค่า 219.- Memory of Sunrise The Exclusive Comeback 30ml – 1 ชิ้น มูลค่า 239.- 2. Unreleased Postcard จำนวน 2 รูป โดยมีรายละเอียดดังนี้ Unreleased Fix Card 1 Unreleased Random Card 1 (สุ่มจากจำนวนทั้งหมด 2 รูป) ระยะเวลาร่วมกิจกรรม: 3 – 10 พฤศจิกายน 2568 ประกาศผลผู้โชคดี: 15 พฤศจิกายน 2568 เริ่มจัดส่งสินค้า ตั้งแต่วันที่ 30 พฤศจิกายน 2568 เป็นต้นไป ⸻ กติกาการร่วมกิจกรรม “WE MAKE THE PHENOMENON – JANUA X RENJUN” CAMPAIGN 2 : JANUA LIMITED BOX SET 📌 รายละเอียดและกติกาแคมเปญ 1. การได้รับสิทธิ์ลุ้นที่นั่ง ทุกการซื้อ JANUA LIMITED BOX SET ราคา 1,990 บาท / 1 กล่อง = 5 สิทธิ์ (ปรับเพิ่มจากเดิม 1 กล่อง = 1 สิทธิ์) สินค้ามีจำนวนจำกัดเท่านั้น ราคานี้ยังไม่รวมค่าจัดส่ง การลุ้นสิทธิ์ขึ้นอยู่กับจำนวนสิทธิ์ที่ได้รับ ไม่ได้พิจารณาจากยอดซื้อมากที่สุด ไม่จำกัดจำนวนการสั่งซื้อต่อคน และไม่สามารถยกเลิกคำสั่งซื้อได้ทุกกรณี ⸻ 2. ระยะเวลาแคมเปญ สามารถสั่งซื้อสินค้าได้ตั้งแต่ วันที่ 3 พฤศจิกายน 2568 – วันที่ 10 พฤศจิกายน 2568 เวลา 23:59 น. คำสั่งซื้อที่อยู่ภายในช่วงเวลาดังกล่าวเท่านั้นที่จะได้รับสิทธิ์ลุ้น เพื่อลุ้นสิทธิ์ที่นั่งโซนหมายเลข 001–250 หมายเหตุเพิ่มเติม: สินค้าจะถูกวางจำหน่ายจนกว่าสินค้าจะหมด แต่สิทธิ์ในการ “ลุ้นที่นั่งเข้าร่วมอีเวนต์” จะนับเฉพาะคำสั่งซื้อที่เกิดขึ้นในช่วงวันที่ 3 – 10 พฤศจิกายน 2568 เวลา 23:59 น. เท่านั้น ⸻ 3. ช่องทางการสั่งซื้อ สั่งซื้อได้ผ่าน 2 ช่องทางเท่านั้น 1. LINE MY SHOP : 2. DM Instagram : janua_thailand (สงวนสิทธิ์สำหรับต่างชาติเท่านั้น) 👉 วิธีชำระเงินที่เข้าร่วมรายการสำหรับ Line My Shop ช่องทางการชำระเงิน 1. PromptPay QR: ลูกค้าสามารถสแกน QR Code เพื่อชำระเงินได้ 2. Mobile Banking: รองรับการชำระผ่านแอปพลิเคชันธนาคาร เช่น K PLUS และ SCB Easy 3. LINE Pay : 3.1 e-Wallet: ชำระเงินผ่านกระเป๋าเงินอิเล็กทรอนิกส์ของ LINE 3.2 บัตรเครดิต/เดบิต: สามารถผูกบัตร Visa, Mastercard, JCB และบัตรเครือข่ายไทยที่รองรับ 👉 วิธีชำระเงินที่เข้าร่วมรายการสำหรับ DM Instagram : janua_thailand • ชำระตรงผ่านเลขที่บัญชีบริษัทเท่านั้น 👉 สถานะคำสั่งซื้อ • จะพิจารณาเฉพาะคำสั่งซื้อที่มี หมายเลขคำสั่งซื้อ ขึ้นโชว์เท่านั้น ⸻ 4. ชื่อผู้รับสินค้า ชื่อ–นามสกุลผู้รับสินค้าต้องตรงกับชื่อจริงในบัตรประชาชนหรือพาสปอร์ต เพื่อใช้ยืนยันสิทธิ์เข้าร่วมกิจกรรม ที่อยู่ในการจัดส่งสินค้าไม่จำเป็นต้องตรงกับบัตรประชาชนหรือพาสปอร์ต ⸻ 5. ระยะเวลาและการจัดส่งสินค้า การจัดส่ง JANUA LIMITED BOX SET จะเริ่มตั้งแต่วันที่ 30 พฤศจิกายน 2568 เป็นต้นไป โดยจะจัดส่งตามลำดับคิวของคำสั่งซื้อที่เข้ามาก่อน–หลัง เพื่อให้ทุกกล่องถูกจัดส่งอย่างครบถ้วนและปลอดภัยที่สุด ⸻ 6. ระบบบันทึกสิทธิ์และการตรวจสอบ สิทธิ์ของผู้สั่งซื้อจะถูกบันทึกโดยอัตโนมัติ ไม่ต้องลงทะเบียนเพิ่มเติม สามารถตรวจสอบจำนวนสิทธิ์ได้หลังคำสั่งซื้อสำเร็จภายใน 2 วัน ผ่านทางเว็บไซต์ 👉 วิธีตรวจสอบสิทธิ์: 1. เข้าเว็บไซต์ 2. กรอกเบอร์โทรศัพท์ที่ใช้ในการสั่งซื้อสินค้า (ต้องเป็นเบอร์เดียวกับในที่อยู่จัดส่ง Box Set) 3. ระบบจะแสดงข้อมูล ชื่อ, ที่อยู่, และจำนวนสิทธิ์ที่ได้รับทันที ⸻ 7. วันที่ประกาศผลผู้โชคดี วันที่ 15 พฤศจิกายน 2568 ผู้โชคดีจาก Campaign 2 จะได้รับสิทธิ์ที่นั่งในโซนหมายเลข 001–250 โดยจะประกาศผ่านทาง เว็บไซต์ X : 𝐉𝐀𝐍𝐔𝐀 Instagram : janua_thailand ⸻ 8. การยืนยันสิทธิ์ ผู้ได้รับสิทธิ์ต้องยืนยันสิทธิ์ของตน ผ่านทาง LINE Official: Janua ภายในวันที่ 15 พฤศจิกายน – 21 พฤศจิกายน 2568 หากไม่ยืนยันสิทธิ์ภายในเวลาที่กำหนด จะถือว่าสละสิทธิ์โดยอัตโนมัติ และทางแบรนด์จะประกาศรายชื่อผู้โชคดีสำรองขึ้นมาแทนในวันที่ 22 พฤศจิกายน 2568 ⸻ 9. หลักฐานที่ต้องใช้ในวันรายงานตัว ผู้ได้รับสิทธิ์เข้าร่วมอีเวนต์ ต้องนำเอกสารต่อไปนี้มาแสดงเพื่อยืนยันตัวตน : 1. ใบเสร็จการสั่งซื้อสินค้า (ฉบับพิมพ์จากระบบออนไลน์) 2. บัตรประชาชน หรือพาสปอร์ตตัวจริง ที่ตรงกับข้อมูลการลงทะเบียน ⸻ 10. จำนวนสิทธิ์ต่อผู้เข้าร่วม 1. จำกัดสิทธิ์ผู้โชคดี 1 คนต่อ 1 หมายเลขบัตรประชาชนหรือพาสปอร์ตเท่านั้น ไม่สามารถโอนสิทธิ์ให้ผู้อื่น หรือใช้หมายเลขเดียวกันลงทะเบียนซ้ำเพื่อรับสิทธิ์มากกว่า 1 ที่นั่งได้ 2. หากผู้ได้รับสิทธิ์ได้ที่นั่งทั้งใน Campaign 1 และ Campaign 2 จำเป็นต้องสละสิทธิ์ใดสิทธิ์หนึ่ง โดยแจ้งความประสงค์มาที่ LINE Official: Janua ก่อนวันที่ 21 พฤศจิกายน 2568 และทางแบรนด์จะประกาศผู้โชคดีสำรองขึ้นมาแทนในวันที่ 22 พฤศจิกายน 2568 ⸻ 11. เงื่อนไขการยกเลิกและคืนเงิน • ไม่สามารถยกเลิกคำสั่งซื้อหรือขอคืนเงินได้ในทุกกรณี ยกเว้นกรณีที่สินค้าเกิดความเสียหายจากการขนส่ง ซึ่งหากสินค้าเกิดความเสียหายจากขนส่ง ทางแบรนด์จะจัดส่งสินค้าชิ้นใหม่ให้ โดยไม่ให้ยกเลิกคำสั่งซื้อในทุกกรณี • การพิจารณาการคืนสินค้าจะเป็นไปตามเงื่อนไขของแบรนด์เท่านั้น ⸻ 12. การคุ้มครองข้อมูลส่วนบุคคล (PDPA) ข้อมูลส่วนบุคคลของผู้เข้าร่วมกิจกรรม เช่น ชื่อ–นามสกุล หมายเลขโทรศัพท์ และบัตรประชาชนหรือพาสปอร์ต จะถูกเก็บรักษาอย่างปลอดภัย และใช้เพื่อการยืนยันสิทธิ์เท่านั้น โดยจะไม่ถูกเปิดเผยหรือใช้ในวัตถุประสงค์อื่น ⸻ 13. ข้อสงวนสิทธิ์ของแบรนด์ แบรนด์ JANUA ขอสงวนสิทธิ์ในการเปลี่ยนแปลงเงื่อนไข รายละเอียดกิจกรรม หรือกำหนดการต่าง ๆ โดยไม่ต้องแจ้งให้ทราบล่วงหน้า หากเกิดเหตุสุดวิสัยหรือเหตุจำเป็นทางเทคนิค ช่องทางติดต่อสอบถามเพิ่มเติม หากมีข้อสงสัยเกี่ยวกับการสั่งซื้อหรือการร่วมกิจกรรม สามารถติดต่อได้ที่ 📩 LINE Official: Janua 🌐 เว็บไซต์: --------------------------- 💛 Every second in this video represents our passion that we wish everyone could feel. JANUA LIMITED BOX SET (Full Version) is now finally ready for everyone who has been waiting 💛 Get yourself ready! The official sale begins on November 3, 2025. Because the “surprise inside the box” is truly worth the wait. ✨ ⸻ Remarks : 1.Product Details Inside the Box • Mine Wish Limited Edition 50ml – 1 pc (Value: 490 THB) • Mine Wish Festive Design 30ml – 1 pc (Value: 290 THB) • Mine Wish Festive Design 30ml – 1 pc (Value: 290 THB) • Dreamy Cloud Festive Design 30ml – 1 pc (Value: 290 THB) • Kiss Me More Festive Design 30ml – 1 pc (Value: 290 THB) • Passion Love Festive Design 30ml – 1 pc (Value: 290 THB) • Juicy Mallow New Collection 15ml – 1 pc (Value: 219 THB) • Cotton Cloud New Collection 15ml – 1 pc (Value: 219 THB) • Sugar Bunny New Collection 15ml – 1 pc (Value: 219 THB) • Memory of Sunrise The Exclusive Comeback 30ml – 1 pc (Value: 239 THB) 2.Unreleased Postcards (2 pieces) as follows: • Unreleased Fixed Card (1 piece) • Unreleased Random Card (1 piece, randomly selected from a total of 2 designs) ⸻ Campaign Duration : November 3 – 10, 2025 Winner Announcement : November 15, 2025 Shipping Start Date : From November 30, 2025 onward ⸻ Campaign Rules and Conditions “WE MAKE THE PHENOMENON – JANUA X RENJUN” CAMPAIGN 2 : JANUA LIMITED BOX SET ⸻ 📌 Campaign Details and Rules 1. Lucky Draw Eligibility Every purchase of JANUA LIMITED BOX SET (1,990 THB per box) = 5 Lucky Draw Entries (Increased from the previous condition of 1 box = 1 entry) The amount of product is limited quantities. This price does not include shipping fees. The number of entries will determine your lucky draw chances. It is not based on the highest total purchase amount. There is no purchase limit per person, and order cancellations are not allowed under any circumstances. ⸻ 2. Campaign Period Customers can place their orders from November 3, 2025 – November 10, 2025 (until 23:59). Only orders placed within this period will be eligible for the lucky draw for seat numbers 001–250. Additional Note: Products will remain available until sold out. However, eligibility for the “Lucky Draw to join the event” will apply only to orders placed between November 3 – 10, 2025 (until 23:59). ⸻ 3. Sales Channels Available through 2 official channels only: 1. LINE MY SHOP: 2. Instagram DM: janua_thailand (for international customers only) 👉 Payment Methods for LINE MY SHOP: 1. PromptPay QR: Customers can scan the QR code to make payment. 2. Mobile Banking: Supported through major Thai bank applications such as K PLUS and SCB Easy. 3. LINE Pay 3.1 e-Wallet: Payment via LINE electronic wallet. 3.2 Credit/Debit Card: Supports Visa, Mastercard, JCB, and Thai-issued cards. 👉 Payment Method for Instagram DM (Janua_thailand): • Direct bank transfer to the official company account only. 👉 Order Status: Only orders that display an “order number” will be eligible for participation. ⸻ 4. Recipient Name The recipient’s full name must match the official name on their National ID or Passport for event verification purposes. The shipping address does not need to match the identification document. ⸻ 5. Shipping Schedule Shipment of JANUA LIMITED BOX SET will begin from November 30, 2025 onward, following the order queue chronologically (first come, first served) to ensure that every box is carefully and completely delivered. ⸻ 6. Entry Recording and Verification All purchase entries will be automatically recorded — no additional registration is required. Customers can verify their total entries within 2 days after completing their order via the website 👉 How to check your entries: 1. Visit 2. Enter the phone number used in your order (must be the same as the shipping address). 3. The system will display your name, address, and total number of entries. ⸻ 7. Winner Announcement November 15, 2025 Winners from Campaign 2 will receive seats in Zone Numbers 001–250. The announcement will be made through the following official channels: • Website: • X (Twitter): 𝐉𝐀𝐍𝐔𝐀 • Instagram: janua_thailand ⸻ 8. Confirmation of Rights Winners must confirm their participation via LINE Official: Janua between November 15 – 21, 2025. If the confirmation is not submitted within the specified period, the right to participate will be automatically forfeited. Replacement winners will be announced on November 22, 2025. ⸻ 9. Required Documents on the Event Day Winners must present the following documents for identity verification: • Printed purchase receipt (official online version) • Original National ID card or Passport that matches the registration details ⸻ 10. Number of Seats per Participant 1. Each winner is entitled to only 1 seat per National ID or Passport. Rights cannot be transferred or duplicated for multiple entries using the same ID. 2. If a winner receives seats in both Campaign 1 and Campaign 2, they must choose one campaign to attend and notify LINE Official: Janua before November 21, 2025. Replacement winners will be announced on November 22, 2025. ⸻ 11. Cancellation and Refund Policy • Orders cannot be cancelled or refunded under any circumstances, except in the case of product damage during shipment. If damage occurs during delivery, the brand will resend a new product, but order cancellations will still not be accepted in any case. • All product return evaluations will strictly follow the brand’s policy. ⸻ 12. Personal Data Protection (PDPA) Personal information of participants, including full name, phone number, and national ID or passport number, will be securely stored and used solely for verification purposes. No personal data will be disclosed or used for any other purpose. ⸻ 13. Brand Reservation of Rights JANUA reserves the right to amend campaign conditions, details, or schedules without prior notice in the event of unavoidable circumstances or technical issues. ⸻ For Inquiries or Further Information If you have any questions regarding your order or participation, please contact: 📩 LINE Official: Janua 🌐 Website: #JANUAXRENJUN
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💛 ทุกวินาทีในวิดีโอนี้…คือความตั้งใจที่เราอยากมอบให้ทุกคนได้สัมผัส JANUA LIMITED BOX SET ตัวเต็ม พร้อมแล้วสำหรับทุกคนที่รอคอย 💛 เตรียมตัวให้พร้อม! พบกับการเปิดขายในวันที่ 3 พฤศจิกายน 2568 เพราะ “เซอร์ไพรส์ในกล่อง” คุ้มค่าแก่การรอคอยมากจริง ๆ ✨ ⸻ หมายเหตุ : 1.รายละเอียดสินค้าภายในกล่อง Mine Wish Limited Edition 50ml – 1 ชิ้น มูลค่า 490.- Mine Wish Festive Design 30ml – 1 ชิ้น มูลค่า 290.- Mine Wish Festive Design 30ml – 1 ชิ้น มูลค่า 290.- Dreamy Cloud Festive Design 30ml – 1 ชิ้น มูลค่า 290.- Kiss Me More Festive Design 30ml – 1 ชิ้น มูลค่า 290.- Passion Love Festive Design 30ml – 1 ชิ้น มูลค่า 290.- Juicy Mallow New Collection 15ml – 1 ชิ้น มูลค่า 219.- Cotton Cloud New Collection 15ml – 1 ชิ้น มูลค่า 219.- Sugar Bunny New Collection 15ml – 1 ชิ้น มูลค่า 219.- Memory of Sunrise The Exclusive Comeback 30ml – 1 ชิ้น มูลค่า 239.- 2. Unreleased Postcard จำนวน 2 รูป โดยมีรายละเอียดดังนี้ Unreleased Fix Card 1 Unreleased Random Card 1 (สุ่มจากจำนวนทั้งหมด 2 รูป) ระยะเวลาร่วมกิจกรรม: 3 – 10 พฤศจิกายน 2568 ประกาศผลผู้โชคดี: 15 พฤศจิกายน 2568 เริ่มจัดส่งสินค้า ตั้งแต่วันที่ 30 พฤศจิกายน 2568 เป็นต้นไป ⸻ กติกาการร่วมกิจกรรม “WE MAKE THE PHENOMENON – JANUA X RENJUN” CAMPAIGN 2 : JANUA LIMITED BOX SET 📌 รายละเอียดและกติกาแคมเปญ 1. การได้รับสิทธิ์ลุ้นที่นั่ง ทุกการซื้อ JANUA LIMITED BOX SET ราคา 1,990 บาท / 1 กล่อง = 5 สิทธิ์ (ปรับเพิ่มจากเดิม 1 กล่อง = 1 สิทธิ์) สินค้ามีจำนวนจำกัดเท่านั้น ราคานี้ยังไม่รวมค่าจัดส่ง การลุ้นสิทธิ์ขึ้นอยู่กับจำนวนสิทธิ์ที่ได้รับ ไม่ได้พิจารณาจากยอดซื้อมากที่สุด ไม่จำกัดจำนวนการสั่งซื้อต่อคน และไม่สามารถยกเลิกคำสั่งซื้อได้ทุกกรณี ⸻ 2. ระยะเวลาแคมเปญ สามารถสั่งซื้อสินค้าได้ตั้งแต่ วันที่ 3 พฤศจิกายน 2568 – วันที่ 10 พฤศจิกายน 2568 เวลา 23:59 น. คำสั่งซื้อที่อยู่ภายในช่วงเวลาดังกล่าวเท่านั้นที่จะได้รับสิทธิ์ลุ้น เพื่อลุ้นสิทธิ์ที่นั่งโซนหมายเลข 001–250 หมายเหตุเพิ่มเติม: สินค้าจะถูกวางจำหน่ายจนกว่าสินค้าจะหมด แต่สิทธิ์ในการ “ลุ้นที่นั่งเข้าร่วมอีเวนต์” จะนับเฉพาะคำสั่งซื้อที่เกิดขึ้นในช่วงวันที่ 3 – 10 พฤศจิกายน 2568 เวลา 23:59 น. เท่านั้น ⸻ 3. ช่องทางการสั่งซื้อ สั่งซื้อได้ผ่าน 2 ช่องทางเท่านั้น 1. LINE MY SHOP : 2. DM Instagram : janua_thailand (สงวนสิทธิ์สำหรับต่างชาติเท่านั้น) 👉 วิธีชำระเงินที่เข้าร่วมรายการสำหรับ Line My Shop ช่องทางการชำระเงิน 1. PromptPay QR: ลูกค้าสามารถสแกน QR Code เพื่อชำระเงินได้ 2. Mobile Banking: รองรับการชำระผ่านแอปพลิเคชันธนาคาร เช่น K PLUS และ SCB Easy 3. LINE Pay : 3.1 e-Wallet: ชำระเงินผ่านกระเป๋าเงินอิเล็กทรอนิกส์ของ LINE 3.2 บัตรเครดิต/เดบิต: สามารถผูกบัตร Visa, Mastercard, JCB และบัตรเครือข่ายไทยที่รองรับ 👉 วิธีชำระเงินที่เข้าร่วมรายการสำหรับ DM Instagram : janua_thailand • ชำระตรงผ่านเลขที่บัญชีบริษัทเท่านั้น 👉 สถานะคำสั่งซื้อ • จะพิจารณาเฉพาะคำสั่งซื้อที่มี หมายเลขคำสั่งซื้อ ขึ้นโชว์เท่านั้น ⸻ 4. ชื่อผู้รับสินค้า ชื่อ–นามสกุลผู้รับสินค้าต้องตรงกับชื่อจริงในบัตรประชาชนหรือพาสปอร์ต เพื่อใช้ยืนยันสิทธิ์เข้าร่วมกิจกรรม ที่อยู่ในการจัดส่งสินค้าไม่จำเป็นต้องตรงกับบัตรประชาชนหรือพาสปอร์ต ⸻ 5. ระยะเวลาและการจัดส่งสินค้า การจัดส่ง JANUA LIMITED BOX SET จะเริ่มตั้งแต่วันที่ 30 พฤศจิกายน 2568 เป็นต้นไป โดยจะจัดส่งตามลำดับคิวของคำสั่งซื้อที่เข้ามาก่อน–หลัง เพื่อให้ทุกกล่องถูกจัดส่งอย่างครบถ้วนและปลอดภัยที่สุด ⸻ 6. ระบบบันทึกสิทธิ์และการตรวจสอบ สิทธิ์ของผู้สั่งซื้อจะถูกบันทึกโดยอัตโนมัติ ไม่ต้องลงทะเบียนเพิ่มเติม สามารถตรวจสอบจำนวนสิทธิ์ได้หลังคำสั่งซื้อสำเร็จภายใน 2 วัน ผ่านทางเว็บไซต์ 👉 วิธีตรวจสอบสิทธิ์: 1. เข้าเว็บไซต์ 2. กรอกเบอร์โทรศัพท์ที่ใช้ในการสั่งซื้อสินค้า (ต้องเป็นเบอร์เดียวกับในที่อยู่จัดส่ง Box Set) 3. ระบบจะแสดงข้อมูล ชื่อ, ที่อยู่, และจำนวนสิทธิ์ที่ได้รับทันที ⸻ 7. วันที่ประกาศผลผู้โชคดี วันที่ 15 พฤศจิกายน 2568 ผู้โชคดีจาก Campaign 2 จะได้รับสิทธิ์ที่นั่งในโซนหมายเลข 001–250 โดยจะประกาศผ่านทาง เว็บไซต์ X : 𝐉𝐀𝐍𝐔𝐀 Instagram : janua_thailand ⸻ 8. การยืนยันสิทธิ์ ผู้ได้รับสิทธิ์ต้องยืนยันสิทธิ์ของตน ผ่านทาง LINE Official: Janua ภายในวันที่ 15 พฤศจิกายน – 21 พฤศจิกายน 2568 หากไม่ยืนยันสิทธิ์ภายในเวลาที่กำหนด จะถือว่าสละสิทธิ์โดยอัตโนมัติ และทางแบรนด์จะประกาศรายชื่อผู้โชคดีสำรองขึ้นมาแทนในวันที่ 22 พฤศจิกายน 2568 ⸻ 9. หลักฐานที่ต้องใช้ในวันรายงานตัว ผู้ได้รับสิทธิ์เข้าร่วมอีเวนต์ ต้องนำเอกสารต่อไปนี้มาแสดงเพื่อยืนยันตัวตน : 1. ใบเสร็จการสั่งซื้อสินค้า (ฉบับพิมพ์จากระบบออนไลน์) 2. บัตรประชาชน หรือพาสปอร์ตตัวจริง ที่ตรงกับข้อมูลการลงทะเบียน ⸻ 10. จำนวนสิทธิ์ต่อผู้เข้าร่วม 1. จำกัดสิทธิ์ผู้โชคดี 1 คนต่อ 1 หมายเลขบัตรประชาชนหรือพาสปอร์ตเท่านั้น ไม่สามารถโอนสิทธิ์ให้ผู้อื่น หรือใช้หมายเลขเดียวกันลงทะเบียนซ้ำเพื่อรับสิทธิ์มากกว่า 1 ที่นั่งได้ 2. หากผู้ได้รับสิทธิ์ได้ที่นั่งทั้งใน Campaign 1 และ Campaign 2 จำเป็นต้องสละสิทธิ์ใดสิทธิ์หนึ่ง โดยแจ้งความประสงค์มาที่ LINE Official: Janua ก่อนวันที่ 21 พฤศจิกายน 2568 และทางแบรนด์จะประกาศผู้โชคดีสำรองขึ้นมาแทนในวันที่ 22 พฤศจิกายน 2568 ⸻ 11. เงื่อนไขการยกเลิกและคืนเงิน • ไม่สามารถยกเลิกคำสั่งซื้อหรือขอคืนเงินได้ในทุกกรณี ยกเว้นกรณีที่สินค้าเกิดความเสียหายจากการขนส่ง ซึ่งหากสินค้าเกิดความเสียหายจากขนส่ง ทางแบรนด์จะจัดส่งสินค้าชิ้นใหม่ให้ โดยไม่ให้ยกเลิกคำสั่งซื้อในทุกกรณี • การพิจารณาการคืนสินค้าจะเป็นไปตามเงื่อนไขของแบรนด์เท่านั้น ⸻ 12. การคุ้มครองข้อมูลส่วนบุคคล (PDPA) ข้อมูลส่วนบุคคลของผู้เข้าร่วมกิจกรรม เช่น ชื่อ–นามสกุล หมายเลขโทรศัพท์ และบัตรประชาชนหรือพาสปอร์ต จะถูกเก็บรักษาอย่างปลอดภัย และใช้เพื่อการยืนยันสิทธิ์เท่านั้น โดยจะไม่ถูกเปิดเผยหรือใช้ในวัตถุประสงค์อื่น ⸻ 13. ข้อสงวนสิทธิ์ของแบรนด์ แบรนด์ JANUA ขอสงวนสิทธิ์ในการเปลี่ยนแปลงเงื่อนไข รายละเอียดกิจกรรม หรือกำหนดการต่าง ๆ โดยไม่ต้องแจ้งให้ทราบล่วงหน้า หากเกิดเหตุสุดวิสัยหรือเหตุจำเป็นทางเทคนิค ช่องทางติดต่อสอบถามเพิ่มเติม หากมีข้อสงสัยเกี่ยวกับการสั่งซื้อหรือการร่วมกิจกรรม สามารถติดต่อได้ที่ 📩 LINE Official: Janua 🌐 เว็บไซต์: --------------------------- 💛 Every second in this video represents our passion that we wish everyone could feel. JANUA LIMITED BOX SET (Full Version) is now finally ready for everyone who has been waiting 💛 Get yourself ready! The official sale begins on November 3, 2025. Because the “surprise inside the box” is truly worth the wait. ✨ ⸻ Remarks : 1.Product Details Inside the Box • Mine Wish Limited Edition 50ml – 1 pc (Value: 490 THB) • Mine Wish Festive Design 30ml – 1 pc (Value: 290 THB) • Mine Wish Festive Design 30ml – 1 pc (Value: 290 THB) • Dreamy Cloud Festive Design 30ml – 1 pc (Value: 290 THB) • Kiss Me More Festive Design 30ml – 1 pc (Value: 290 THB) • Passion Love Festive Design 30ml – 1 pc (Value: 290 THB) • Juicy Mallow New Collection 15ml – 1 pc (Value: 219 THB) • Cotton Cloud New Collection 15ml – 1 pc (Value: 219 THB) • Sugar Bunny New Collection 15ml – 1 pc (Value: 219 THB) • Memory of Sunrise The Exclusive Comeback 30ml – 1 pc (Value: 239 THB) 2.Unreleased Postcards (2 pieces) as follows: • Unreleased Fixed Card (1 piece) • Unreleased Random Card (1 piece, randomly selected from a total of 2 designs) ⸻ Campaign Duration : November 3 – 10, 2025 Winner Announcement : November 15, 2025 Shipping Start Date : From November 30, 2025 onward ⸻ Campaign Rules and Conditions “WE MAKE THE PHENOMENON – JANUA X RENJUN” CAMPAIGN 2 : JANUA LIMITED BOX SET ⸻ 📌 Campaign Details and Rules 1. Lucky Draw Eligibility Every purchase of JANUA LIMITED BOX SET (1,990 THB per box) = 5 Lucky Draw Entries (Increased from the previous condition of 1 box = 1 entry) The amount of product is limited quantities. This price does not include shipping fees. The number of entries will determine your lucky draw chances. It is not based on the highest total purchase amount. There is no purchase limit per person, and order cancellations are not allowed under any circumstances. ⸻ 2. Campaign Period Customers can place their orders from November 3, 2025 – November 10, 2025 (until 23:59). Only orders placed within this period will be eligible for the lucky draw for seat numbers 001–250. Additional Note: Products will remain available until sold out. However, eligibility for the “Lucky Draw to join the event” will apply only to orders placed between November 3 – 10, 2025 (until 23:59). ⸻ 3. Sales Channels Available through 2 official channels only: 1. LINE MY SHOP: 2. Instagram DM: janua_thailand (for international customers only) 👉 Payment Methods for LINE MY SHOP: 1. PromptPay QR: Customers can scan the QR code to make payment. 2. Mobile Banking: Supported through major Thai bank applications such as K PLUS and SCB Easy. 3. LINE Pay 3.1 e-Wallet: Payment via LINE electronic wallet. 3.2 Credit/Debit Card: Supports Visa, Mastercard, JCB, and Thai-issued cards. 👉 Payment Method for Instagram DM (Janua_thailand): • Direct bank transfer to the official company account only. 👉 Order Status: Only orders that display an “order number” will be eligible for participation. ⸻ 4. Recipient Name The recipient’s full name must match the official name on their National ID or Passport for event verification purposes. The shipping address does not need to match the identification document. ⸻ 5. Shipping Schedule Shipment of JANUA LIMITED BOX SET will begin from November 30, 2025 onward, following the order queue chronologically (first come, first served) to ensure that every box is carefully and completely delivered. ⸻ 6. Entry Recording and Verification All purchase entries will be automatically recorded — no additional registration is required. Customers can verify their total entries within 2 days after completing their order via the website 👉 How to check your entries: 1. Visit 2. Enter the phone number used in your order (must be the same as the shipping address). 3. The system will display your name, address, and total number of entries. ⸻ 7. Winner Announcement November 15, 2025 Winners from Campaign 2 will receive seats in Zone Numbers 001–250. The announcement will be made through the following official channels: • Website: • X (Twitter): 𝐉𝐀𝐍𝐔𝐀 • Instagram: janua_thailand ⸻ 8. Confirmation of Rights Winners must confirm their participation via LINE Official: Janua between November 15 – 21, 2025. If the confirmation is not submitted within the specified period, the right to participate will be automatically forfeited. Replacement winners will be announced on November 22, 2025. ⸻ 9. Required Documents on the Event Day Winners must present the following documents for identity verification: • Printed purchase receipt (official online version) • Original National ID card or Passport that matches the registration details ⸻ 10. Number of Seats per Participant 1. Each winner is entitled to only 1 seat per National ID or Passport. Rights cannot be transferred or duplicated for multiple entries using the same ID. 2. If a winner receives seats in both Campaign 1 and Campaign 2, they must choose one campaign to attend and notify LINE Official: Janua before November 21, 2025. Replacement winners will be announced on November 22, 2025. ⸻ 11. Cancellation and Refund Policy • Orders cannot be cancelled or refunded under any circumstances, except in the case of product damage during shipment. If damage occurs during delivery, the brand will resend a new product, but order cancellations will still not be accepted in any case. • All product return evaluations will strictly follow the brand’s policy. ⸻ 12. Personal Data Protection (PDPA) Personal information of participants, including full name, phone number, and national ID or passport number, will be securely stored and used solely for verification purposes. No personal data will be disclosed or used for any other purpose. ⸻ 13. Brand Reservation of Rights JANUA reserves the right to amend campaign conditions, details, or schedules without prior notice in the event of unavoidable circumstances or technical issues. ⸻ For Inquiries or Further Information If you have any questions regarding your order or participation, please contact: 📩 LINE Official: Janua 🌐 Website: #JANUAXRENJUN

𝐉𝐀𝐍𝐔𝐀

380,507 görüntüleme • 11 ay önce

I IGNORED IGAMING FOR TWO YEARS. THEN I DID THE MATH Here is what changed my mind Imagine a debate: Everyone is arguing about the next big narrative - AI agents? - Meme coins? - Another DeFi twist? But suddenly someone mentions iGaming - and the conversation does not die. It grows The same thing started happening on Crypto Twitter recently I used to be the one who always changed the topic until recently Let me explain WHAT I HAD TO ADMIT iGaming is not a new hype It is a multi billion machine that has been generating real cash for years 13 percent annual growth Crypto volumes in the sector are doubling year over year The money is already flowing The only thing that changes is who captures it on-chain Looking at it now I do not understand how I ignored it before BUT FIRST WHY I DID NOT TRUST THIS SECTOR All iGaming tokens sounded the same: - Huge market - Loud promises - Token detached from real usage I thought it was just noise but that assumption was my mistake What changed my position was not hype or anyone’s recommendation It was structure concrete verifiable numbers THIS IS AN INDUSTRY THAT NEVER NEEDED CRYPTO Here is the right question I should have asked from the start Can a token connect to activity that already exists instead of trying to create it This is a completely different starting point iGaming answers this question YES Millions of people go on platforms every day not to farm points and not to speculate but to play bet and interact This activity generates what crypto rarely has at scale - stable revenue independent of sentiment A PLATFORM THAT EXISTED BEFORE THE TOKEN? Most crypto projects follow this scheme: 1. Launch a token 2. Distribute incentives 3. Try to find users But I found a project that positions itself differently - 1win Token 1win did the opposite First nearly a decade of operations: - 30M+ users in 50+ countries - Systems for engagement and monetization - Around 1B USD annual revenue - Global celebrity advertising - Nine years of operations before the first token The platform existed long before the token did And that order matters more than it seems WHERE TOKENOMICS FINALLY BECAME INTERESTING Most buyback mechanisms are just marketing in a whitepaper Here it is different The mechanism is deterministic and built into code: - A portion of real platform revenue goes to weekly buybacks from the market - Bought tokens are returned to users as cashback - 10 percent of every spent 1WIN is burned daily - Fixed supply 10B No inflation No additional issuance The loop looks like this: ACTIVITY -> REVENUE -> BUYBACK -> REWARDS -> BURN -> LOWER SUPPLY Activity affects the token Not sentiment This is a flywheel tied to real human behavior not the price of BTC THE ARCHITECTURE MOST PEOPLE MISS $1WIN is natively deployed on BNB Chain and Solana via LayerZero When tokens move between chains they are burned on source and minted on destination Total supply remains constant This removes typical bridge risks that have already killed many projects And it gives access to: - BNB liquidity and retail base - Solana speed and DeFi activity This level of design is not accidental THE SIGNAL THAT MADE ME LOOK TWICE Then I saw the collaboration with Jupiter Not a vague partnership announcement but a live reward campaign inside the Jupiter ecosystem Jupiter is the core infrastructure hub of Solana DeFi with billions in daily volume Serious infrastructure platforms do not align with projects without substance This added another layer of confidence before the tokensale ATTENTION IS ALREADY BOUGHT INTO CRYPTO There is another layer most people ignore Before any token before any on-chain narrative 1win already built global distribution through sports and entertainment - Jon Jones: UFC legend and youngest champion in history - Canelo Alvarez: Mexican boxing superstar - David Warner: elite international cricket star You do not get athletes of this level unless the business under the hood generates serious stable cashflow This is the key signal The token is not trying to create attention from zero It is plugging into attention that already exists WHY TIMING MATTERS RIGHT NOW Recently I started noticing a shift Conversations about iGaming tokens are becoming more frequent and more serious Less noise more people with real arguments This is how early narratives usually form And right when this shift is happening $1WIN is approaching its tokensale No price history No price discovery Only users revenue and mechanics already in place This timing is rare BUT REMEMBER THE RISKS Regulation execution liquidity after launch These risks are real and I am not going to pretend they are not But the key difference compared to most pre TGE projects is: - Product already exists - Users already exist - Revenue is already generated Most crypto projects do not start this way WHY MY VIEW CHANGED Not because of shill Not because of anyone’s recommendation Because the puzzle finally made sense 1. Large existing industry with real cashflow 2. Platform with real users and revenue before token 3. Token mechanically tied to activity not sentiment 4. Architecture solving real problems 5. Tier 1 partnerships as a catalyst 6. Timing where attention is just starting to form This combination is rare The best opportunities rarely look obvious at first They sit in categories people underestimate while the structure quietly builds underneath iGaming is already a cashflow machine What changes is how that value is represented on-chain This is not a token looking for users This is a working system inviting the token inside And right now it still feels early Usually that is where the edge is Good luck!
0:39

I IGNORED IGAMING FOR TWO YEARS. THEN I DID THE MATH Here is what changed my mind Imagine a debate: Everyone is arguing about the next big narrative - AI agents? - Meme coins? - Another DeFi twist? But suddenly someone mentions iGaming - and the conversation does not die. It grows The same thing started happening on Crypto Twitter recently I used to be the one who always changed the topic until recently Let me explain WHAT I HAD TO ADMIT iGaming is not a new hype It is a multi billion machine that has been generating real cash for years 13 percent annual growth Crypto volumes in the sector are doubling year over year The money is already flowing The only thing that changes is who captures it on-chain Looking at it now I do not understand how I ignored it before BUT FIRST WHY I DID NOT TRUST THIS SECTOR All iGaming tokens sounded the same: - Huge market - Loud promises - Token detached from real usage I thought it was just noise but that assumption was my mistake What changed my position was not hype or anyone’s recommendation It was structure concrete verifiable numbers THIS IS AN INDUSTRY THAT NEVER NEEDED CRYPTO Here is the right question I should have asked from the start Can a token connect to activity that already exists instead of trying to create it This is a completely different starting point iGaming answers this question YES Millions of people go on platforms every day not to farm points and not to speculate but to play bet and interact This activity generates what crypto rarely has at scale - stable revenue independent of sentiment A PLATFORM THAT EXISTED BEFORE THE TOKEN? Most crypto projects follow this scheme: 1. Launch a token 2. Distribute incentives 3. Try to find users But I found a project that positions itself differently - 1win Token 1win did the opposite First nearly a decade of operations: - 30M+ users in 50+ countries - Systems for engagement and monetization - Around 1B USD annual revenue - Global celebrity advertising - Nine years of operations before the first token The platform existed long before the token did And that order matters more than it seems WHERE TOKENOMICS FINALLY BECAME INTERESTING Most buyback mechanisms are just marketing in a whitepaper Here it is different The mechanism is deterministic and built into code: - A portion of real platform revenue goes to weekly buybacks from the market - Bought tokens are returned to users as cashback - 10 percent of every spent 1WIN is burned daily - Fixed supply 10B No inflation No additional issuance The loop looks like this: ACTIVITY -> REVENUE -> BUYBACK -> REWARDS -> BURN -> LOWER SUPPLY Activity affects the token Not sentiment This is a flywheel tied to real human behavior not the price of BTC THE ARCHITECTURE MOST PEOPLE MISS $1WIN is natively deployed on BNB Chain and Solana via LayerZero When tokens move between chains they are burned on source and minted on destination Total supply remains constant This removes typical bridge risks that have already killed many projects And it gives access to: - BNB liquidity and retail base - Solana speed and DeFi activity This level of design is not accidental THE SIGNAL THAT MADE ME LOOK TWICE Then I saw the collaboration with Jupiter Not a vague partnership announcement but a live reward campaign inside the Jupiter ecosystem Jupiter is the core infrastructure hub of Solana DeFi with billions in daily volume Serious infrastructure platforms do not align with projects without substance This added another layer of confidence before the tokensale ATTENTION IS ALREADY BOUGHT INTO CRYPTO There is another layer most people ignore Before any token before any on-chain narrative 1win already built global distribution through sports and entertainment - Jon Jones: UFC legend and youngest champion in history - Canelo Alvarez: Mexican boxing superstar - David Warner: elite international cricket star You do not get athletes of this level unless the business under the hood generates serious stable cashflow This is the key signal The token is not trying to create attention from zero It is plugging into attention that already exists WHY TIMING MATTERS RIGHT NOW Recently I started noticing a shift Conversations about iGaming tokens are becoming more frequent and more serious Less noise more people with real arguments This is how early narratives usually form And right when this shift is happening $1WIN is approaching its tokensale No price history No price discovery Only users revenue and mechanics already in place This timing is rare BUT REMEMBER THE RISKS Regulation execution liquidity after launch These risks are real and I am not going to pretend they are not But the key difference compared to most pre TGE projects is: - Product already exists - Users already exist - Revenue is already generated Most crypto projects do not start this way WHY MY VIEW CHANGED Not because of shill Not because of anyone’s recommendation Because the puzzle finally made sense 1. Large existing industry with real cashflow 2. Platform with real users and revenue before token 3. Token mechanically tied to activity not sentiment 4. Architecture solving real problems 5. Tier 1 partnerships as a catalyst 6. Timing where attention is just starting to form This combination is rare The best opportunities rarely look obvious at first They sit in categories people underestimate while the structure quietly builds underneath iGaming is already a cashflow machine What changes is how that value is represented on-chain This is not a token looking for users This is a working system inviting the token inside And right now it still feels early Usually that is where the edge is Good luck!

Linton Worm (🍏,🪱)

14,395 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

The multi-leader blockchain endgame: competitive information inclusion as a self-reinforcing mechanism for global price discovery - how we got here, and why Aptos is leading the charge Onchain trading is the killer app In the nine years since the launch of programmable transactions on the Ethereum blockchain, onchain trading has revealed itself as the killer use case for blockchains: onchain listings, volume, and total value locked are all growing with no signs of slowing down, due to the censorship-resistant, permissionless, 24/7/365 qualities afforded by decentralized (DeFi) systems. Monolithic parallelism is key In 2020 Solana was first to market with monolithic, parallel execution (as opposed sharded execution which offers parallelism by partitioning global state into separate information silos), establishing a new design paradigm that raised the bar for throughput and latency: put all of the information in one replicated state machine and make it run as fast as possible. This design produces a single, global hub for activity, liquidity, and token launches, a kind of financial data whiteboard in the sky, where anyone can come and trade at any time with everybody else who has plugged into the system. DEXes are becoming more competitive Historically decentralized systems have been juxtaposed with centralized ones since the latter eliminates the overhead associated with distributed systems coordination. And yet despite this overhead, Solana as a decentralized exchange (DEX) is still pulling in billions of trading volume per day, exceeding that of all but the largest centralized crypto exchanges (CEXs), that simply can't compete with the giant DEX in the sky on token listings or fees. After all, CEXs have to pay for server space, salaries, and lawyers, while a DEX outsources everything. The colocation arms race The one place where CEXs have an advantage over DEXs is on end-to-end latency for colocation applications, or in other words: someone sets up a trading bot in the same data center as the exchange, and their trades get to the exchange faster than everyone else's. When there is only one data ingestion point the fastest trader wins, and after the arms race has played out everyone ends up huddling around the trading hub, effectively cutting off the rest of the world from playing the latency trading game. This is the model that traditional securities exchanges like the Nasdaq or the NYSE 🏛 employ, and because they own the server they can effectively charge whatever they want for access to it. The colocation arms race is also why L2s will probably never decentralize: running the sequencer is practically the same as running the NASDAQ, with the same monopoly on transaction fees collected from a nearby cluster of trading bots (I understand from conversations with Logan Jastremski that the Arbitrum arms race has already hit a Nash Equilibrium in Portland, Oregon). Colocation is a trap But once the colocation arms race has played out, trades become less about incorporating new information in the market and more about skimming off the top by spoofing all of the trades coming in from the other bots. High-frequency trading (HFT) bots located in the NYSE New Jersey data center, for example, are constantly placing buys and sell orders that they have no intention of executing, just to spoof the other colocated bots who are playing the same adversarial game. Information inclusion, on the other hand, the synthesis of real-time world events into prices, takes a back seat because anyone who tries to include new information first needs to batch up their order and send it through a series of middlemen before it ultimately ends up on the exchange: you, I, or practically any other individual can not actually "trade on the NASDAQ", no, we have to express our intent to someone like Robinhood, who then sells our order flow to @CitadelSecurities, who then sends it to the exchange, oh and by the way it doesn't actually even "clear" or "settle" once it "executes" because for whatever reason the whole systems splits these things up and prevents them from happening instantaneously even though it's 2024 and we have computers. Onchain trading cuts out middlemen This whole mess is why we have onchain trading, and why it's starting to win: if you want a mainline to the exchange, without setting up a server, and you want to trade on a news event without getting immediately frontrun by an HFT bot that is sniffing out the trades of every other HFT bot who is easing in batched up order flow on their own terms, then you submit your order to a node in the blockchain and the information gets included in the price upon ingestion. Oh, and by the way the trade is actually fully complete: settled, cleared, reconciled, done, whatever you want to call it, because the people who build decentralized finance (DeFi) build it how it should actually work, not in a way that creates a million incumbents and charges exorbitant rents for access to the system. Onchain trading better for price discovery And the beautiful part about this is that even if a distributed system has more latency than a centralized system, DeFi still ends up incorporating more information into the price faster than centralized finance, because with DeFi the information gets included in the system as soon as it is submitted, not after it has been batched up and sent through a series of middlemen. The consensus mechanism of the blockchain disseminates the information around the world in the form of a price update, while the centralized exchange model requires information about the event to first get propagate to the region of the trading hub, then to get submitted to the colocation server. This means that in terms of global price discovery, onchain trading is strictly a better system because the entire consensus model is based around accelerated information propagation. Because price discovery is a global phenomenon, blockchains, which are global, are actually better than the centralized status quo, on a performance basis, not just from an ideological or convenience-based view. And it has to be multi-leader In practice, effective global information synthesis of information has an additional key requirement: multi-leader architecture. That is, in a single-leader blockchain like Solana, where one validator at a time has a monopoly on ordering transactions into blocks, for their duration as a leader they effectively function as a colocation server. This means that if the current leader is in New York, someone in Singapore who wants to trade on local news as soon as it breaks will still need to get their order all the way around the world to the leader, who is effectively serving as the chain's data ingestion point, before the order can start propagating through the network. But this is issue solved by the introduction of multiple distributed leaders, because then anyone with access to new information can submit their order to the leader closest to them, yielding faster information inclusion in the form of price updates. Multi-leader is also required for fair markets A multi-leader architecture is also required for fair markets, because in a single-leader system the leader has the power to censor transactions, reorder them to their advantage, or even replace transactions with copycats that extract maximum value by replacing the sender's address with their own. For example if someone wants to capture an arbitrage opportunity between two onchain DEXes, they'll need to submit a transaction to the leader and trust that the leader won't simply copy the transaction and submit it themselves. But when there are two or more leaders, users whose transactions are censored by one leader will simply work with a different leader the next time around, eventually cutting off transaction fee flow to the extractive leader. Beyond just strict inclusion, in a multi-leader architecture validators are also forced to compete with each other on latency, because the leader who is fastest at disseminating users' transactions across the network will over time gobble up the largest share of the order flow. Transparent priority fees are a must, or a private mempool will emerge But in order to make this work, a multi-leader architecture must also offer users the ability to pay priority fees AKA "tips" or "bribes" to move their transaction to the front of the line: if there is a $5 arbitrage opportunity onchain, users need to have assurance that they if they pay a 4.99 priority fee to take that arb, they will get priority over a different user who is only willing to tip 4.98. If the native blockchain system does not offer this fair market priority fee mechanism, then it is only a matter of time before one spontaneously emerges in the form of a private mempool like , which can create centralization pressures and undermine the integrity of the system as a whole. Competitive payment for order flow is the stable solution With the right architecture in place, the end result is a competitive environment where endpoints running maximum extractable value (MEV) bots compete with one to offer users the best price for their order flow. In other words, if a user wants to submit an order that can get sandwich attacked for as much as $2 of MEV, then the order should ultimately go to the endpoint bot that is willing to pay the user as much as $1.99 for the right to process their transaction. The price that the provider is willing to pay is ultimately a function of how much in priority fees they might need to pay to the current leader (0 they are the current one), but notably at each stage there is a competitive market for order flow, whether in the form of retail trader's orders, or priority fees among bots that might be forwarding orders to one of the leaders. AptosLabs is already building all this With a public mempool and transaction priority fees, Aptos additionally includes a pipelined architecture that already includes concurrent batching of transactions into blocks, with a single consensus leader who propagates the batched blocks out to the network. And the team is already researching running multiple instances of the consensus algorithm in parallel, yielding multiple consensus leaders who can compete with each other on latency and inclusion - just ask pranav | Shelby, Alexander Spiegelman, and Zekun Li. This means that block times can shrink as the number of consensus leaders grows, with each leader having its own geographical radius of inclusion beyond which it makes more sense to submit to a different leader. The starting point? Something like 60 ms blocks and 3 consensus leaders, partitioning the global information space into competitive and constantly-rotating regions of information inclusion. Messaging is important With concurrent pipelined transaction batching, a public mempool, priority fees, and a clear path to a multi-leader architecture, Aptos leads the industry in onchain trading infrastructure that can truly supplant the centralized colocation paradigm that has heretofore dominated global finance - by offering a truly superior product. And I am hopeful that this deep dive is the first step in communicating not how or that superior product is getting built, but what it means from a bigger picture perspective. If blockchains have found product market fit in anything, it is in trading, and the trading game can only be won by building the biggest, baddest, most high performance system that has as its north star a single, concrete goal: constantly reducing, ever lower toward zero, time time it takes to incorporate information from anywhere in the world into the global price discovery computer. Whoever does this, even 1 ms faster than the competitor, wins the price discovery game, as other blockchains are left in the dust, their DEXes arbed away to zero against the fastest chain on the block. And sure, the blockchain that can rise to this challenge can also handle useful things like payments, NFTs, or other solutions that benefit from permissionlessness and low gas costs, but I want to impress that at the core of this pursuit must be the urge to drive down information inclusion latency to the absolute minimum afforded by the laws of physics through a competitive, market-driven environment. I call on avery.apt 🇺🇸 , CTO of Aptos Labs, to lean in on this messaging, to make it clear that Aptos is here for this singular mission, to build the most performant price discovery engine in history, as a rallying call for alignment in development efforts across the ecosystem and broader industry. Where does this go? As the latencies drop, the spreads tighten, and the information inclusion increases with every incremental increase in network bandwidth, we can expect a new class of competing techno-financial hubs that aggregate around the world's largest information sources: New York, Washington DC, London, Tokyo, etc., commanding stake distribution commensurate with the density of information flow in these respective locales. With the right incentives in place, competing concurrent leaders will invest ever more in infrastructure to get their packets out to the network faster than the rest, yielding clusters of fiber optic cable around the world's financial hubs, neurons in the global financial brain connecting not just HFT firms to servers in their city, but connecting every city with every other city, to move pricing information across oceans and continents. And retail traders, who have been left out of the colocation game, will only benefit: this entire system gets faster, more inclusive, with tighter spreads and lower fees, and it is such an amazing opportunity to watch all of this unfold in real time. The future of blockchains is the future of trading, is the future of competitive information inclusion in real-time, is the future of truly unified global markets, because at the the core of this industry is a simple idea: connect the computers, and see where the incentives lead. They lead to this, and Aptos is leading the charge, because its tech is purpose-built for this exact purpose. So tell the world about it.
2:41

The multi-leader blockchain endgame: competitive information inclusion as a self-reinforcing mechanism for global price discovery - how we got here, and why Aptos is leading the charge Onchain trading is the killer app In the nine years since the launch of programmable transactions on the Ethereum blockchain, onchain trading has revealed itself as the killer use case for blockchains: onchain listings, volume, and total value locked are all growing with no signs of slowing down, due to the censorship-resistant, permissionless, 24/7/365 qualities afforded by decentralized (DeFi) systems. Monolithic parallelism is key In 2020 Solana was first to market with monolithic, parallel execution (as opposed sharded execution which offers parallelism by partitioning global state into separate information silos), establishing a new design paradigm that raised the bar for throughput and latency: put all of the information in one replicated state machine and make it run as fast as possible. This design produces a single, global hub for activity, liquidity, and token launches, a kind of financial data whiteboard in the sky, where anyone can come and trade at any time with everybody else who has plugged into the system. DEXes are becoming more competitive Historically decentralized systems have been juxtaposed with centralized ones since the latter eliminates the overhead associated with distributed systems coordination. And yet despite this overhead, Solana as a decentralized exchange (DEX) is still pulling in billions of trading volume per day, exceeding that of all but the largest centralized crypto exchanges (CEXs), that simply can't compete with the giant DEX in the sky on token listings or fees. After all, CEXs have to pay for server space, salaries, and lawyers, while a DEX outsources everything. The colocation arms race The one place where CEXs have an advantage over DEXs is on end-to-end latency for colocation applications, or in other words: someone sets up a trading bot in the same data center as the exchange, and their trades get to the exchange faster than everyone else's. When there is only one data ingestion point the fastest trader wins, and after the arms race has played out everyone ends up huddling around the trading hub, effectively cutting off the rest of the world from playing the latency trading game. This is the model that traditional securities exchanges like the Nasdaq or the NYSE 🏛 employ, and because they own the server they can effectively charge whatever they want for access to it. The colocation arms race is also why L2s will probably never decentralize: running the sequencer is practically the same as running the NASDAQ, with the same monopoly on transaction fees collected from a nearby cluster of trading bots (I understand from conversations with Logan Jastremski that the Arbitrum arms race has already hit a Nash Equilibrium in Portland, Oregon). Colocation is a trap But once the colocation arms race has played out, trades become less about incorporating new information in the market and more about skimming off the top by spoofing all of the trades coming in from the other bots. High-frequency trading (HFT) bots located in the NYSE New Jersey data center, for example, are constantly placing buys and sell orders that they have no intention of executing, just to spoof the other colocated bots who are playing the same adversarial game. Information inclusion, on the other hand, the synthesis of real-time world events into prices, takes a back seat because anyone who tries to include new information first needs to batch up their order and send it through a series of middlemen before it ultimately ends up on the exchange: you, I, or practically any other individual can not actually "trade on the NASDAQ", no, we have to express our intent to someone like Robinhood, who then sells our order flow to @CitadelSecurities, who then sends it to the exchange, oh and by the way it doesn't actually even "clear" or "settle" once it "executes" because for whatever reason the whole systems splits these things up and prevents them from happening instantaneously even though it's 2024 and we have computers. Onchain trading cuts out middlemen This whole mess is why we have onchain trading, and why it's starting to win: if you want a mainline to the exchange, without setting up a server, and you want to trade on a news event without getting immediately frontrun by an HFT bot that is sniffing out the trades of every other HFT bot who is easing in batched up order flow on their own terms, then you submit your order to a node in the blockchain and the information gets included in the price upon ingestion. Oh, and by the way the trade is actually fully complete: settled, cleared, reconciled, done, whatever you want to call it, because the people who build decentralized finance (DeFi) build it how it should actually work, not in a way that creates a million incumbents and charges exorbitant rents for access to the system. Onchain trading better for price discovery And the beautiful part about this is that even if a distributed system has more latency than a centralized system, DeFi still ends up incorporating more information into the price faster than centralized finance, because with DeFi the information gets included in the system as soon as it is submitted, not after it has been batched up and sent through a series of middlemen. The consensus mechanism of the blockchain disseminates the information around the world in the form of a price update, while the centralized exchange model requires information about the event to first get propagate to the region of the trading hub, then to get submitted to the colocation server. This means that in terms of global price discovery, onchain trading is strictly a better system because the entire consensus model is based around accelerated information propagation. Because price discovery is a global phenomenon, blockchains, which are global, are actually better than the centralized status quo, on a performance basis, not just from an ideological or convenience-based view. And it has to be multi-leader In practice, effective global information synthesis of information has an additional key requirement: multi-leader architecture. That is, in a single-leader blockchain like Solana, where one validator at a time has a monopoly on ordering transactions into blocks, for their duration as a leader they effectively function as a colocation server. This means that if the current leader is in New York, someone in Singapore who wants to trade on local news as soon as it breaks will still need to get their order all the way around the world to the leader, who is effectively serving as the chain's data ingestion point, before the order can start propagating through the network. But this is issue solved by the introduction of multiple distributed leaders, because then anyone with access to new information can submit their order to the leader closest to them, yielding faster information inclusion in the form of price updates. Multi-leader is also required for fair markets A multi-leader architecture is also required for fair markets, because in a single-leader system the leader has the power to censor transactions, reorder them to their advantage, or even replace transactions with copycats that extract maximum value by replacing the sender's address with their own. For example if someone wants to capture an arbitrage opportunity between two onchain DEXes, they'll need to submit a transaction to the leader and trust that the leader won't simply copy the transaction and submit it themselves. But when there are two or more leaders, users whose transactions are censored by one leader will simply work with a different leader the next time around, eventually cutting off transaction fee flow to the extractive leader. Beyond just strict inclusion, in a multi-leader architecture validators are also forced to compete with each other on latency, because the leader who is fastest at disseminating users' transactions across the network will over time gobble up the largest share of the order flow. Transparent priority fees are a must, or a private mempool will emerge But in order to make this work, a multi-leader architecture must also offer users the ability to pay priority fees AKA "tips" or "bribes" to move their transaction to the front of the line: if there is a $5 arbitrage opportunity onchain, users need to have assurance that they if they pay a 4.99 priority fee to take that arb, they will get priority over a different user who is only willing to tip 4.98. If the native blockchain system does not offer this fair market priority fee mechanism, then it is only a matter of time before one spontaneously emerges in the form of a private mempool like , which can create centralization pressures and undermine the integrity of the system as a whole. Competitive payment for order flow is the stable solution With the right architecture in place, the end result is a competitive environment where endpoints running maximum extractable value (MEV) bots compete with one to offer users the best price for their order flow. In other words, if a user wants to submit an order that can get sandwich attacked for as much as $2 of MEV, then the order should ultimately go to the endpoint bot that is willing to pay the user as much as $1.99 for the right to process their transaction. The price that the provider is willing to pay is ultimately a function of how much in priority fees they might need to pay to the current leader (0 they are the current one), but notably at each stage there is a competitive market for order flow, whether in the form of retail trader's orders, or priority fees among bots that might be forwarding orders to one of the leaders. AptosLabs is already building all this With a public mempool and transaction priority fees, Aptos additionally includes a pipelined architecture that already includes concurrent batching of transactions into blocks, with a single consensus leader who propagates the batched blocks out to the network. And the team is already researching running multiple instances of the consensus algorithm in parallel, yielding multiple consensus leaders who can compete with each other on latency and inclusion - just ask pranav | Shelby, Alexander Spiegelman, and Zekun Li. This means that block times can shrink as the number of consensus leaders grows, with each leader having its own geographical radius of inclusion beyond which it makes more sense to submit to a different leader. The starting point? Something like 60 ms blocks and 3 consensus leaders, partitioning the global information space into competitive and constantly-rotating regions of information inclusion. Messaging is important With concurrent pipelined transaction batching, a public mempool, priority fees, and a clear path to a multi-leader architecture, Aptos leads the industry in onchain trading infrastructure that can truly supplant the centralized colocation paradigm that has heretofore dominated global finance - by offering a truly superior product. And I am hopeful that this deep dive is the first step in communicating not how or that superior product is getting built, but what it means from a bigger picture perspective. If blockchains have found product market fit in anything, it is in trading, and the trading game can only be won by building the biggest, baddest, most high performance system that has as its north star a single, concrete goal: constantly reducing, ever lower toward zero, time time it takes to incorporate information from anywhere in the world into the global price discovery computer. Whoever does this, even 1 ms faster than the competitor, wins the price discovery game, as other blockchains are left in the dust, their DEXes arbed away to zero against the fastest chain on the block. And sure, the blockchain that can rise to this challenge can also handle useful things like payments, NFTs, or other solutions that benefit from permissionlessness and low gas costs, but I want to impress that at the core of this pursuit must be the urge to drive down information inclusion latency to the absolute minimum afforded by the laws of physics through a competitive, market-driven environment. I call on avery.apt 🇺🇸 , CTO of Aptos Labs, to lean in on this messaging, to make it clear that Aptos is here for this singular mission, to build the most performant price discovery engine in history, as a rallying call for alignment in development efforts across the ecosystem and broader industry. Where does this go? As the latencies drop, the spreads tighten, and the information inclusion increases with every incremental increase in network bandwidth, we can expect a new class of competing techno-financial hubs that aggregate around the world's largest information sources: New York, Washington DC, London, Tokyo, etc., commanding stake distribution commensurate with the density of information flow in these respective locales. With the right incentives in place, competing concurrent leaders will invest ever more in infrastructure to get their packets out to the network faster than the rest, yielding clusters of fiber optic cable around the world's financial hubs, neurons in the global financial brain connecting not just HFT firms to servers in their city, but connecting every city with every other city, to move pricing information across oceans and continents. And retail traders, who have been left out of the colocation game, will only benefit: this entire system gets faster, more inclusive, with tighter spreads and lower fees, and it is such an amazing opportunity to watch all of this unfold in real time. The future of blockchains is the future of trading, is the future of competitive information inclusion in real-time, is the future of truly unified global markets, because at the the core of this industry is a simple idea: connect the computers, and see where the incentives lead. They lead to this, and Aptos is leading the charge, because its tech is purpose-built for this exact purpose. So tell the world about it.

Alex Kahn

24,548 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

I paid Alex & Leila Hormozi $5,000 for their 2-day scaling workshop. Why? To grow my business from $6 million to $12 million in 2025. These 12 lessons from the event will help me get there: 1. The fastest-moving entrepreneurs are obsessive resource allocators. Similar to investors, they seek the best risk-adjusted returns with the resources they have. The main resources of the business are: • Time (of the team) • Attention (of the team) • And capital (of the business) So resource allocation is: • Aligning attention on the most important thing • Properly allocating everyone’s time to achieve that thing the fastest • Strategically investing capital to accelerate the outcome or increase its likelihood of achievement 2. $3m to $10m in EBITDA is where the majority of the value in a business is created. $3m in EBITDA likely gets a 1x multiple, so $3m of enterprise value. The process of going to $10m (when done well), not only 3.3x’s the EBITDA, but can take the multiple from 1 to 4 -> which is a 13.2x return. The EV goes from $3m to $40m, and that is the stage we are in right now as a business. 3. LTV:CAC are two metrics you must have staring at you and constantly audited. LTV = lifetime value of the customer CAC = customer acquisition cost The scope of calculating those is beyond this write-up, but basically you want this metric to be ~8:1 or higher when aggressively scaling a service-based business. On top of that, these are the only two metrics that you can “improve” in your business → either making customers worth more or reducing the cost to acquire them. You should be able to tie every project on your list directly to the improvement of one of these metrics. 4. We need a single dashboard with the most important metrics in the business. The quality of the dashboard is: • How many people use it on a daily basis • And how clearly they can connect their performance to the performance of the main numbers on the dashboard. We have data thrown about across Airtable, Google Sheets, and various Slack channels. Now, it’s time to unite them such that we can make even better decisions as a team. 5. Leveling up in business is transitioning from selling to people to selling to employees. In the beginning, you are the one creating all of the value. Over time, you will replace yourself out of certain functions that are customer-facing (if you are approaching business correctly). However, your job then becomes selling to your employees to spark their highest performance and retain them. 6. Brand is the best way to improve LTV and reduce CAC at the same time. It makes it cheaper to acquire customers since you have fixed media expenses (just labor) but unlimited upside in the number of eyeballs you can reach. It increases LTV because the continued content you create makes customers likely to keep purchasing because they associate the good content with the purchase they made, whether it’s free content or not. 7. Every single thing in your business is trainable, you just lack the skill of training. Seeing their presentations, their handshakes, the way they repeat the question back to the audience, it was so clear that Alex & Leila did this first, then obsessively role-played and drilled each person on their performance until it was indistinguishable from theirs. 8. The people doing it at the highest level of an obsessive, intentional standard. It was so evident the way these employees conducted themselves that they: • Loved working there • Loved the culture of high performance • And had been trained with extreme repetition and attention to detail 9. Past $3-5m in revenue, anything “new” starts with “who” not “how.” I made the mistake last year of trying to “bootstrap” our cold ads initiative (while continuing to run the rest of the business & sales team). I spent roughly ~200 hours on this throughout the year, which took time away from both my content and the management of the sales team. But for whatever reason, I thought I “had” to be the one who got it off the ground, then handed it off to a new hire or media buyer. But I had the sequence flipped. I should have spent the first 50 hours finding a world-class director of paid marketing, someone with far more experience than me building out a cold traffic acquisition system. Heck, I could have even spent 200 hours on it and ended up with a far greater return than I ended up with. 10. Excellence is a remarkably high number of extremely small details done well. Throughout the workshop, I paid close attention to the event operations, taking notes on how to run a great in-person event in case we wanted to do so in the future. Several things stood out that were clearly “iterations” from prior events, all based around eliminating the small, annoying parts of attending any kind of seminar. • High-quality food • Greeters at the door • Clear bathroom signs • A barista for fresh coffee • WiFi signs posted everywhere • Constant 15-minute breaks every 90 minutes The list goes on and on. 11. Any change you make in a business you should expect a 20% “decrease” in performance to start. That makes the hurdle rate to doing “new” at least 20% for it to be worth it, and arguably 40%. This happens because the switching cost leads to an immediate drop just from having to retrain the team. Change a meeting cadence, change a sales script, change an onboarding flow, all of these are going to come with a switching cost the team must overcome. Therefore, the highest risk-adjusted return is always to just do more or better or whatever you’re already doing, rather than add something new. 12. The ultimate size of the business is the sum of the intelligence of its people. Alex laid out this golden nugget during one of his talks and I found it interesting for a few reasons. First, because of his definition of intelligence = speed of learning, that means the ultimate size of the company is how quickly everyone can learn things. And so said another way, the ultimate size of the company is correlated to the speed of its iterations. The second reason I found this interesting is because you can create a culture of iteration through constant, rapid feedback on every behavior. And when I say constant, I mean constant. You could tell they’ve built this culture by the way their presenters all presented the exact same way as Alex and Leila. Aaand that’s it! I go deeper into all these lessons in this video, check it out: Timestamps 00:37 The Fastest Moving Entrepreneurs Are Obsessive Resource Allocators 04:09 $3m To $10m EBITDA Is Where The Majority Of The Value In A Business Is Created 07:00 LTV:CAC Are Two Metrics You Must Have Staring At You 10:04 You Need A Single Dashboard With The Most Important Metrics In The Business 12:03 Leveling Up In Business Is Transitioning To Selling To People To Selling To Employees 14:10 Brand Is The Best Way To Improve LTV And Reduce CAC At The Same Time 16:02 Every Single Thing In Your Business Is Trainable, You Just Lack The Skill Of Training 18:54 The People Doing It At The Highest Level Have An Obsessive, Intentional Standard 20:04 Past $3-5m In Revenue, Anything "New" Starts With "Who" Not "How" 23:33 Excellence Is A Remarkably High Number Of Extremely Small Details Done Well 26:23 Any Change You Make In A Business You Should Expect A 20% "Decrease" In Performance To Start 28:07 The Ultimate Size Of The Business Is The Sum Of The Intelligence Of It's People
31:43

I paid Alex & Leila Hormozi $5,000 for their 2-day scaling workshop. Why? To grow my business from $6 million to $12 million in 2025. These 12 lessons from the event will help me get there: 1. The fastest-moving entrepreneurs are obsessive resource allocators. Similar to investors, they seek the best risk-adjusted returns with the resources they have. The main resources of the business are: • Time (of the team) • Attention (of the team) • And capital (of the business) So resource allocation is: • Aligning attention on the most important thing • Properly allocating everyone’s time to achieve that thing the fastest • Strategically investing capital to accelerate the outcome or increase its likelihood of achievement 2. $3m to $10m in EBITDA is where the majority of the value in a business is created. $3m in EBITDA likely gets a 1x multiple, so $3m of enterprise value. The process of going to $10m (when done well), not only 3.3x’s the EBITDA, but can take the multiple from 1 to 4 -> which is a 13.2x return. The EV goes from $3m to $40m, and that is the stage we are in right now as a business. 3. LTV:CAC are two metrics you must have staring at you and constantly audited. LTV = lifetime value of the customer CAC = customer acquisition cost The scope of calculating those is beyond this write-up, but basically you want this metric to be ~8:1 or higher when aggressively scaling a service-based business. On top of that, these are the only two metrics that you can “improve” in your business → either making customers worth more or reducing the cost to acquire them. You should be able to tie every project on your list directly to the improvement of one of these metrics. 4. We need a single dashboard with the most important metrics in the business. The quality of the dashboard is: • How many people use it on a daily basis • And how clearly they can connect their performance to the performance of the main numbers on the dashboard. We have data thrown about across Airtable, Google Sheets, and various Slack channels. Now, it’s time to unite them such that we can make even better decisions as a team. 5. Leveling up in business is transitioning from selling to people to selling to employees. In the beginning, you are the one creating all of the value. Over time, you will replace yourself out of certain functions that are customer-facing (if you are approaching business correctly). However, your job then becomes selling to your employees to spark their highest performance and retain them. 6. Brand is the best way to improve LTV and reduce CAC at the same time. It makes it cheaper to acquire customers since you have fixed media expenses (just labor) but unlimited upside in the number of eyeballs you can reach. It increases LTV because the continued content you create makes customers likely to keep purchasing because they associate the good content with the purchase they made, whether it’s free content or not. 7. Every single thing in your business is trainable, you just lack the skill of training. Seeing their presentations, their handshakes, the way they repeat the question back to the audience, it was so clear that Alex & Leila did this first, then obsessively role-played and drilled each person on their performance until it was indistinguishable from theirs. 8. The people doing it at the highest level of an obsessive, intentional standard. It was so evident the way these employees conducted themselves that they: • Loved working there • Loved the culture of high performance • And had been trained with extreme repetition and attention to detail 9. Past $3-5m in revenue, anything “new” starts with “who” not “how.” I made the mistake last year of trying to “bootstrap” our cold ads initiative (while continuing to run the rest of the business & sales team). I spent roughly ~200 hours on this throughout the year, which took time away from both my content and the management of the sales team. But for whatever reason, I thought I “had” to be the one who got it off the ground, then handed it off to a new hire or media buyer. But I had the sequence flipped. I should have spent the first 50 hours finding a world-class director of paid marketing, someone with far more experience than me building out a cold traffic acquisition system. Heck, I could have even spent 200 hours on it and ended up with a far greater return than I ended up with. 10. Excellence is a remarkably high number of extremely small details done well. Throughout the workshop, I paid close attention to the event operations, taking notes on how to run a great in-person event in case we wanted to do so in the future. Several things stood out that were clearly “iterations” from prior events, all based around eliminating the small, annoying parts of attending any kind of seminar. • High-quality food • Greeters at the door • Clear bathroom signs • A barista for fresh coffee • WiFi signs posted everywhere • Constant 15-minute breaks every 90 minutes The list goes on and on. 11. Any change you make in a business you should expect a 20% “decrease” in performance to start. That makes the hurdle rate to doing “new” at least 20% for it to be worth it, and arguably 40%. This happens because the switching cost leads to an immediate drop just from having to retrain the team. Change a meeting cadence, change a sales script, change an onboarding flow, all of these are going to come with a switching cost the team must overcome. Therefore, the highest risk-adjusted return is always to just do more or better or whatever you’re already doing, rather than add something new. 12. The ultimate size of the business is the sum of the intelligence of its people. Alex laid out this golden nugget during one of his talks and I found it interesting for a few reasons. First, because of his definition of intelligence = speed of learning, that means the ultimate size of the company is how quickly everyone can learn things. And so said another way, the ultimate size of the company is correlated to the speed of its iterations. The second reason I found this interesting is because you can create a culture of iteration through constant, rapid feedback on every behavior. And when I say constant, I mean constant. You could tell they’ve built this culture by the way their presenters all presented the exact same way as Alex and Leila. Aaand that’s it! I go deeper into all these lessons in this video, check it out: Timestamps 00:37 The Fastest Moving Entrepreneurs Are Obsessive Resource Allocators 04:09 $3m To $10m EBITDA Is Where The Majority Of The Value In A Business Is Created 07:00 LTV:CAC Are Two Metrics You Must Have Staring At You 10:04 You Need A Single Dashboard With The Most Important Metrics In The Business 12:03 Leveling Up In Business Is Transitioning To Selling To People To Selling To Employees 14:10 Brand Is The Best Way To Improve LTV And Reduce CAC At The Same Time 16:02 Every Single Thing In Your Business Is Trainable, You Just Lack The Skill Of Training 18:54 The People Doing It At The Highest Level Have An Obsessive, Intentional Standard 20:04 Past $3-5m In Revenue, Anything "New" Starts With "Who" Not "How" 23:33 Excellence Is A Remarkably High Number Of Extremely Small Details Done Well 26:23 Any Change You Make In A Business You Should Expect A 20% "Decrease" In Performance To Start 28:07 The Ultimate Size Of The Business Is The Sum Of The Intelligence Of It's People

Dickie Bush

62,195 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

They Turned It Into a Weapon. He Turned It Into a Token. The memecoin “$LAPTOP,” launched by Hunter Biden, was meant to be a joke and a message. One hour after launch, it was just like any other celebrity token: the typical spike, drop, market makers selling, and people debating whether the politics were as important as the chart itself. The official token launched on Base on September 9th. It started trading at a price level that suggested a multibillion-dollar valuation and crashed shortly after. The meme dropped 98% within the first hour. Limited liquidity turned the first minutes of trading into a fireworks display rather than market activity. This is one part of the story… The interesting part is that people believed a 2019 laptop could be monetized in 2026 and that the launch would be as routine as the launch of “$TRUMP”, which this memecoin was meant to mock. The computer that just wouldn't die In April 2019, Hunter Biden dropped a MacBook off at a Delaware repair shop. It got seized by the FBI. The laptop became a political issue when the New York Post reported on information from it in October 2020, with one person's emails and business documents becoming a political controversy for some and a morality story for others. For many years, the term “Hunter’s laptop” served two purposes. Firstly, it was a short way to refer to allegations of influence and foreign business dealings. Second, it was a name for Hunter Biden himself, a man who became a character in others' storylines. This is the asset that he attempted to tokenize. Hunter made his case explicit on Wednesday. He said he has been sober for seven years. He said that Trump's token had left more than a million wallets holding onto $3.8 billion in losses. He added that 20% of $LAPTOP would be airdropped to the community, including those who have lost money on $TRUMP. He added the phrase that would be associated with the LAPTOP meme: “They turned laptop into a weapon. I turned it into a token.” Building the token The $LAPTOP token is a memecoin on Base, Coinbase’s Ethereum layer-2 platform. The total supply will be 1 billion. Around 350 million tokens were in circulation at launch. The project describes it as a digital collectible with no equity, voting rights, yield, or business to claim. The allocation is more complicated than your average meme coin: - Founders, including Biden 30% 6-month lock, then monthly vesting over 24 months - Event/prediction pool 30% Burned if named events happen; sent to charity if they do not - Airdrops 20% 10% at launch, 10% later - Liquidity/listings/legal ~10% Market plumbing - Foundation treasury 5% Project-controlled - Charity regardless of outcomes 5% 50 million tokens “no matter what” The launch was over before the story began Imposters were not waiting for Base. After the story in the Journal, tokens called LAPTOP surfaced on the Robinhood Chain, Solana, TON, and BNB Chain. A single report said there were at least 14 different fakes trading for millions of dollars one hour after the news went live, and there was not yet even an official contract address, since the official token had not launched yet. This loophole has become common practice: announce your ticker, announce your date, leave your contract address blank, and let snipers and impersonators take advantage of the buzz. The official launch was not without its issues. The first prices varied wildly by location and timestamp, with quotes of $200 opening up, a spike reaching into the hundreds of dollars, and then a crash back to under ten dollars. One hour after the open, CoinDesk quoted the price at $4.77, down 98 percent from its peak, despite a market cap that still appeared large because of the initial print of 350 million tokens. Hunter Biden’s memecoin was almost -100%, and Wintermute was unloading $LAPTOP. The figures weren’t as neat as “100%,” but the curve was correct. The meme token followed the pattern that all political memecoins follow when the sole buyer of last resort is publicity. The crypto Twitter mob knew which side their bread was buttered on before any tokens were involved. Coffeezilla advised not buying the coin. Kraken removed a tweet that was promoting it. Various people in the Base community and one journalist who got called out for being on his mailing list distanced themselves. The outrage was not only politically motivated. This one is still different because its tail end is longer than most other memes Most celebrity coins only survive for a weekend but they leave behind a contract address. $LAPTOP, on the other hand, has a lot more story to tell than that. First, the underlying symbol is greater than Hunter Biden. “The laptop” remains a partisan Rorschach test. Second, the burn-or-charity pool turns supply into something driven by real-world developments. As long as the conditions are openly known and mechanically enforced, every election headline, legal case, and New York Post headline can become an event on the token economy. Third, the lockup generates a second act. For six months, the founders could claim they were not selling. Following that period, every unlock would be treated as a true sale. No political tokens get the benefit of the doubt. Fourth, Base is not some random chain. The launch on Coinbase’s L2 puts this project close to a public company, a compliance brand name, and more retail than the Solana community. Honest review $LAPTOP is not a protocol. It is not a recovery program. It is a political relic with a vesting schedule. The story of redemption is very much true in Hunter Biden's case. But seven years in sobriety is not a ticker. The laptop was his private tragedy that became public property. Making it a token will not resolve the conflict. All it does is price his nickname. If you remove the talk, the day is quite predictable: - Famous name. - Pre-arranged ticker. - Impersonators before the contract becomes official. - Vertical candle with poor liquidity. - Snipers first. - Market makers selling their shares given to them by the team. - The community is told to interpret the dump as an opinion. According to Joe Biden, $LAPTOP was all about making a statement. And the market responded the only way these tokens understand. They purchased the first print, got rid of the metaphor, and put the laptop back into its old place…
0:31

They Turned It Into a Weapon. He Turned It Into a Token. The memecoin “$LAPTOP,” launched by Hunter Biden, was meant to be a joke and a message. One hour after launch, it was just like any other celebrity token: the typical spike, drop, market makers selling, and people debating whether the politics were as important as the chart itself. The official token launched on Base on September 9th. It started trading at a price level that suggested a multibillion-dollar valuation and crashed shortly after. The meme dropped 98% within the first hour. Limited liquidity turned the first minutes of trading into a fireworks display rather than market activity. This is one part of the story… The interesting part is that people believed a 2019 laptop could be monetized in 2026 and that the launch would be as routine as the launch of “$TRUMP”, which this memecoin was meant to mock. The computer that just wouldn't die In April 2019, Hunter Biden dropped a MacBook off at a Delaware repair shop. It got seized by the FBI. The laptop became a political issue when the New York Post reported on information from it in October 2020, with one person's emails and business documents becoming a political controversy for some and a morality story for others. For many years, the term “Hunter’s laptop” served two purposes. Firstly, it was a short way to refer to allegations of influence and foreign business dealings. Second, it was a name for Hunter Biden himself, a man who became a character in others' storylines. This is the asset that he attempted to tokenize. Hunter made his case explicit on Wednesday. He said he has been sober for seven years. He said that Trump's token had left more than a million wallets holding onto $3.8 billion in losses. He added that 20% of $LAPTOP would be airdropped to the community, including those who have lost money on $TRUMP. He added the phrase that would be associated with the LAPTOP meme: “They turned laptop into a weapon. I turned it into a token.” Building the token The $LAPTOP token is a memecoin on Base, Coinbase’s Ethereum layer-2 platform. The total supply will be 1 billion. Around 350 million tokens were in circulation at launch. The project describes it as a digital collectible with no equity, voting rights, yield, or business to claim. The allocation is more complicated than your average meme coin: - Founders, including Biden 30% 6-month lock, then monthly vesting over 24 months - Event/prediction pool 30% Burned if named events happen; sent to charity if they do not - Airdrops 20% 10% at launch, 10% later - Liquidity/listings/legal ~10% Market plumbing - Foundation treasury 5% Project-controlled - Charity regardless of outcomes 5% 50 million tokens “no matter what” The launch was over before the story began Imposters were not waiting for Base. After the story in the Journal, tokens called LAPTOP surfaced on the Robinhood Chain, Solana, TON, and BNB Chain. A single report said there were at least 14 different fakes trading for millions of dollars one hour after the news went live, and there was not yet even an official contract address, since the official token had not launched yet. This loophole has become common practice: announce your ticker, announce your date, leave your contract address blank, and let snipers and impersonators take advantage of the buzz. The official launch was not without its issues. The first prices varied wildly by location and timestamp, with quotes of $200 opening up, a spike reaching into the hundreds of dollars, and then a crash back to under ten dollars. One hour after the open, CoinDesk quoted the price at $4.77, down 98 percent from its peak, despite a market cap that still appeared large because of the initial print of 350 million tokens. Hunter Biden’s memecoin was almost -100%, and Wintermute was unloading $LAPTOP. The figures weren’t as neat as “100%,” but the curve was correct. The meme token followed the pattern that all political memecoins follow when the sole buyer of last resort is publicity. The crypto Twitter mob knew which side their bread was buttered on before any tokens were involved. Coffeezilla advised not buying the coin. Kraken removed a tweet that was promoting it. Various people in the Base community and one journalist who got called out for being on his mailing list distanced themselves. The outrage was not only politically motivated. This one is still different because its tail end is longer than most other memes Most celebrity coins only survive for a weekend but they leave behind a contract address. $LAPTOP, on the other hand, has a lot more story to tell than that. First, the underlying symbol is greater than Hunter Biden. “The laptop” remains a partisan Rorschach test. Second, the burn-or-charity pool turns supply into something driven by real-world developments. As long as the conditions are openly known and mechanically enforced, every election headline, legal case, and New York Post headline can become an event on the token economy. Third, the lockup generates a second act. For six months, the founders could claim they were not selling. Following that period, every unlock would be treated as a true sale. No political tokens get the benefit of the doubt. Fourth, Base is not some random chain. The launch on Coinbase’s L2 puts this project close to a public company, a compliance brand name, and more retail than the Solana community. Honest review $LAPTOP is not a protocol. It is not a recovery program. It is a political relic with a vesting schedule. The story of redemption is very much true in Hunter Biden's case. But seven years in sobriety is not a ticker. The laptop was his private tragedy that became public property. Making it a token will not resolve the conflict. All it does is price his nickname. If you remove the talk, the day is quite predictable: - Famous name. - Pre-arranged ticker. - Impersonators before the contract becomes official. - Vertical candle with poor liquidity. - Snipers first. - Market makers selling their shares given to them by the team. - The community is told to interpret the dump as an opinion. According to Joe Biden, $LAPTOP was all about making a statement. And the market responded the only way these tokens understand. They purchased the first print, got rid of the metaphor, and put the laptop back into its old place…

BSCN

25,088 görüntüleme • 20 gün önce

🟢GIVEAWAY🟢 Best comments or memes about this whole circus + RT this post. 10 winners will each get $50💎 (For evidence, supporting materials, and context, read both articles and watch the video included in the article I posted yesterday) Housebets.com & Porchy pay your debts A few people told me they did not fully understand the first article because there were too many moving parts: leaderboard accounts, rewards, weekly dates, monthly bonus, Tequity, game categories, withdrawals, Provably Fair, seed changes, migration, support tickets, ledgers and founder messages. Fair enough. The evidence is already there, and I still recommend reading the full articles and, above all, watching the video, because the video shows the reward system failing live. But this text is the cleaner version: the full story explained in plain English, without assuming the reader knows anything about crypto casinos, leaderboards or lossback systems. From all the evidence I’ve gathered, the Housebets story is not a normal “player lost money” complaint. It looks like a full transparency failure across the whole product: leaderboard, rewards, withdrawals, game categories, Provably Fair / Tequity mapping, support, migration and founder response. Housebets sold itself as a rewards-first casino: public leaderboards, weekly/monthly bonuses, fast withdrawals, VIP treatment and Provably Fair games. But every time I asked for the records behind those systems, snapshots, ledger entries, weekly cycles, GGR/NGR, slider logs, PF seed mapping, Tequity round IDs, withdrawal approval logs, the answer became some version of “forwarded to the relevant department.” This started long before the public dispute. I was not some random angry player who appeared after one bad session. In January I was helping Housebets and giving product feedback. I literally told support on 27 January that I was “testing the website for George,” while already dealing with a non-instant withdrawal and a 100% welcome bonus that had not applied. Support even asked me for “proof about your testing job.” The same chat shows the advertised 100% Welcome Bonus, the bonus not applying, and support saying the withdrawal needed internal confirmation instead of being instant. The welcome bonus issue never looked clean. Housebets advertised a 100% Welcome Bonus up to $1,000 on first deposit; I deposited, contacted support, and the bonus did not apply. Then support effectively turned a first-deposit bonus into a second-deposit workaround because the first one had not been applied properly. On 31 January I came back after another deposit and told them the bonus still had not been applied, even though I had already followed support’s instructions. Edward replied that he had “forwarded” the concern to the team. The same 100% welcome bonus was still being advertised in March. By April, the rewards system was already showing serious problems. I had the weekly slider at 100% lossback and told support I had lost money but the weekly did not appear. Jacky said the weekly was generated every Thursday at 00:01 UTC and gave actual internal figures: GGR $6,250, Total Bonus $6,083.99, NGR $168.31. So Housebets clearly had internal calculations when it wanted to explain why something might not pay. But when I later asked for full calculations, those same numbers suddenly became impossible to produce. Then on 18–19 April, the rewards page was bugged and would not let me claim. Support could see a pending weekly bonus of $717.37, but I could not claim it from the UI. Tee said it had been forwarded to the relevant department. That $717.37 later appears in the bonus ledger as Rakeback (20 Apr) 717.37089061, so I am not saying that specific one stayed unpaid forever. The point is worse: already in April, support could see a pending weekly reward while the player-facing reward page did not work. For a casino built around rewards, that is not a small bug. That is the product. In May, the UI and account data kept failing basic trust checks. On 8 May, I deposited 400 USDT; support said it had been credited, but I could not see it, and the proposed fix was to log out, clear cookies and cache. On 16 May, I asked why total deposits and withdrawals had disappeared from the menu; support said the platform was “in continuous evolution.” On 17 May, I asked for my total deposits and withdrawals, and support said they did not have direct access to that consolidated summary and would email it. That full official ledger did not arrive. So when Housebets later defends itself with UI screenshots, remember: this was the same UI where deposits could be credited but invisible, totals disappeared, rewards pages bugged, and support could not access consolidated account totals. Withdrawals were also not what was advertised. On 16 May, I asked why a crypto withdrawal was pending if withdrawals were supposed to be instant. Tee answered: “A few withdrawals require manual approval,” then added, “Our withdrawals are typically instant but…” That matters because a few days later the withdrawal delay became real damage. On 25 May, I told support before a match that I needed the funds to place a time-sensitive bet on another site in less than 20 minutes. I explained I wanted to bet around 60k at odds of 2.55. The withdrawal did not arrive in time. Later I told them the bet won and that I missed around 90k in profit because Housebets took more than two hours despite being warned before the match started. Jacky said he would raise the compensation case to the VIP team. Nobody resolved it. This was not one delayed withdrawal either. In my formal complaint I reconstructed several withdrawal delays: 23 May 02:55 → 08:03, around 5h08m; 25 May 03:05 → 08:09, around 5h04m; 17 May 03:54 → 08:02, around 4h08m; 18 May 04:46 → 08:11, around 3h25m; 16 May 05:23 → 08:12, around 2h49m. That is not “instant withdrawal.” And if later marketing says withdrawals are much faster now, the obvious question is: if this was the faster version, what did slow look like? The Provably Fair / Tequity side was another major issue. On 17 May I asked support how to verify an old Blackjack round. I did not ask for a generic explanation of Provably Fair; I asked where I could see the server seed, client seed, nonce and result for previous games. Support sent me to bet history, mentioned RTP, gave a generic PF explanation and showed the current Dice seed screen. When I said that did not let me verify previous games, they told me to clear cookies/cache. After doing that, I saw a new client seed and nonce 1 even though I had not played with that seed pair. I asked if Housebets changes seeds on every login. Support could not answer and told me to contact VIP. That seed/session behaviour is important. I later recorded video evidence around the seed changing after clearing cookies/cache and asked for the exact mapping: Housebets account ID → Tequity/provider player ID → session/currency context → seed pair → server seed hash → revealed server seed → client seed → nonce/cursor → raw outcome → final result. Housebets cannot sell Provably Fair if the player cannot verify historical bets, and “contact VIP” is not a verification algorithm. On 24 May, I asked for raw verification data for a specific Tequity Blackjack round: Round ID e1648d60-0da1-4433-a5ab-9ae39f5302e3, Blackjack, Tequity, bet amount 11,346 USDT, client seed O3YBZF7LBu, server seed hash starting 712875.... I asked for revealed server seed, nonce, full result JSON, card draw order and verification algorithm. I also asked about an apparent duplicate-card/deck question. Tee replied: “I don’t have the answers to your questions right now, but I’m forwarding your request to the relevant department.” That same day, I asked for a full audit of six Dice bets of 11,400 USDT each, total 68,400 USDT. I requested bet IDs, provider round IDs, roll results, seed data, balance ledger, request/session logs, security logs, retry flags, provider records and a full technical reconciliation. Tee replied: “I will forward this to the relevant department.” So when I asked for raw data, the answer was not data. It was forwarding. Again. There were also many large loss clusters that required reconciliation because of those unresolved PF, Tequity, category, RTP and session questions. In my complaint I listed clusters such as 25 May 02:17–02:54 Blackjack around 169,932 USDT; 16 May 12:31–13:26 Dice around 90,571.92 USDT; 26 May 02:48–03:58 Mines around 89,199 USDT; 24 May 06:20–06:21 Dice at 68,400 USDT; 26 May 00:11–01:41 Blackjack around 59,910 USDT; 25 May 22:51–22:59 Dice around 59,576 USDT; and several more between 40k and 56k. I am not saying every losing cluster proves manipulation by itself. I am saying that when PF mapping, provider logs, RTP/HE, category mapping and seed/session behaviour are unresolved, these sequences need a real reconciliation. The leaderboard is where the story becomes very hard for Housebets to explain. Around 19–20 May, two new accounts, elmourabut and lucasmartirini, appeared and started climbing every day at a vertiginous pace. Not normal slow leaderboard growth. Not a casual player building volume over time. They were created around that period and then started rising with huge wagering in a way that looked extremely unnatural for brand new accounts. By 29 May, I was first on both weekly and monthly leaderboards, and those two accounts were directly behind me with huge volume. In the monthly leaderboard screenshots, I was around $3.33M wagered, while elmourabut was around $1.29M and lucasmartirini around $1.08M. In the weekly leaderboard, I was around $1.096M, while those two accounts were around $635k and $578k. They were not normal accounts sitting at the bottom; they were directly behind me, applying pressure. In my formal complaint I recorded that elmourabut joined on 19 May and lucasmartirini on 20 May, that they showed zero visible withdrawals, large deposits/wagering and significant card-game volume, and I asked Housebets to confirm they were not staff, test, QA, admin, house-controlled, affiliate-controlled, internally funded, promotional, bonus-only or multi-account related accounts. This matters because a leaderboard is not passive. It is gamification. It makes players defend rank. When two new accounts appear behind you with hundreds of thousands or more than a million in volume, you are pressured to keep wagering. In my case, the disputed deposit sequence from 25 May 22:23 to 26 May 02:09 totals 91,168.375326 USDT. That sequence begins with 1,000.00 at 22:23 and continues with repeated deposits until 2,879.148969 at 02:09. The video later shows why those dates matter: there were deposits coming in, no gameplay withdrawal offsetting the sequence, a balance basically at zero, and later a leaderboard prize shown as P/L. I formally asked Housebets to confirm those two leaderboard accounts were real and eligible, and also to preserve wager logs, transaction records, balance adjustment logs, account flags, leaderboard calculation snapshots, support ticket logs, Telegram/email records and internal notes. Edward said he forwarded the request. In the same thread, he added that they were “working on fixing an issue regarding the weekly bonuses,” and then said the weekly countdown was “not currently on Thursday evenings.” So the leaderboard issue and the weekly bonus issue are linked in time and support context. After that, Housebets confirmed by email that elmourabut and lucasmartirini were “legitimate and eligible accounts.” That email is the trap door. If they were legitimate and eligible, they should have remained in the leaderboard with their volume. If they were not, Housebets should never have confirmed them as legitimate and eligible. After that confirmation, the accounts disappeared from the leaderboard or stopped appearing in the positions their previous wagering required. I went back to support on 30 May and wrote: “There has been a material post-confirmation leaderboard change involving two accounts that Housebets had already confirmed as legitimate and eligible. I need the exact reason, timestamp, logs, and recalculation basis.” Edward said the matter was flagged and that I could expect a prompt response. I am still waiting for the actual explanation. Why did they disappear? My read is simple: because every hour that passed, there was more evidence around those accounts. They had been created around the same period, they were climbing at a speed that looked anything but human, they showed no visible withdrawals in the data I could see and reported, they appeared to be generating huge volume in unclear game categories, and the games/categories tied to that volume did not even make sense from the player-facing UI. When I started asking what they were actually playing, what Card meant, whether the volume was Tequity / UnOriginals / House Games, what RTP and house edge applied, and where the logs were, the questions became uncomfortable. Keeping those accounts visible became harder than removing them. So they disappeared. The game category issue made the leaderboard even more suspicious. On 30 May, I asked support why my own stats showed almost all my volume under Slots / Tragamonedas when I did not play real slots. I told them: “i dont play 3$ in unoriginals,” “i played all 3M in unoriginals,” and “ive never play slots.” I asked what “Card” was, where that game was, what RTP and house edge it had. Monica said Card was mainly Blackjack, Baccarat and Poker variants. Marcus later said the team was investigating why it showed that I mostly played slots when I had not. He could not give the exact game, RTP, HE, provider, category mapping or contribution logic. That matters because those same unclear categories were connected to leaderboard volume. If the site cannot clearly explain whether volume is Slots, Card, UnOriginals, House Games, Blackjack, Baccarat, Always 9 Baccarat or Tequity, then the leaderboard is not auditable for the player. I even asked which UnOriginals those two accounts were playing, and support told me to look at Live Bets. That is not an answer. I was not asking for gossip; I was asking what exact games generated leaderboard volume, what RTP/HE applied and whether that volume was eligible. There is also an earlier leaderboard-related precedent: Porchy had already told me in February that I would lose leaderboard places if I did not rename, because too many people were messaging support saying the site was not being fair due to my name and it “doesn’t make us look good.” That matters because it suggests leaderboard positioning was not treated as a sacred, untouchable system when public perception was involved. If leaderboard positions can be threatened for image reasons, then later claims that everything is purely automatic deserve scrutiny. Then Porchy made the leaderboard situation worse. Instead of producing logs or snapshots, he later said the leaderboard had “abusers” on it, that they were removed to help other players, and that it never affected me. Later he said they paid every single person, “even these abusers,” then called me “begging for money.” That creates a direct contradiction: Housebets confirmed the accounts as legitimate and eligible, then Porchy referred to leaderboard “abusers.” If they were abusers, why were they confirmed as legitimate and eligible? If they were eligible, why did they disappear? If they never affected me, where are the historical snapshots proving that? Once those accounts disappeared, Housebets paid the leaderboard prizes. On 1 June, the bonus ledger shows two Leaderboard entries: 5,007.46111706 and 1,001.49222341, totaling 6,008.95334047. That part was paid. But then Act Two started: the weekly and monthly rewards did not appear as separate ledger entries. The same bonus ledger shows those two 1 June entries as Leaderboard only, not Monthly Bonus, not Weekly Reload, not Lossback. The weekly timeline is a mess. On 28 May, the dashboard / UI said the weekly bonus was claimable every Thursday at 00:01 UTC, and the monthly was available on the 1st at 00:01 UTC. That same night I told support the weekly had shown as available, then reset to 6 days without paying. Later I sent screenshots and wrote: “1M wagered and 0.2$.” Jacky said he had raised the issue to the technical team. So the weekly failure was reported live, not reconstructed after the fact. The next day, 29 May, Edward said they were fixing an issue regarding weekly bonuses and that the weekly countdown was “not currently on Thursday evenings.” Then on 1 June, Spencer said the May weekly bonuses were 7th, 14th, 21st, and then due to migration the weekly moved to Monday, so there was one on the 25th on the new platform. He also said the 25 May weekly covered gameplay from 21–24 May, and that tech was looking at that plus the monthly bonus. The ledger does show a 25 May 02:10 Rakeback entry of 1,996.08334791, which likely corresponds to that 21–24 May weekly. But my major loss sequence starts about 20 hours later, on 25 May at 22:23, and continues until 26 May at 02:09. So the 25 May weekly cannot cover those losses. If weekly was still Thursday, the 25/26 losses should have been in the 28 May weekly. But the bonus ledger on 28 May shows only two tiny Rakeback entries, 0.28373945 and 0.00280958. If weekly moved to Monday because of migration, those losses should have appeared in the next weekly after 25 May. But on 1 June the ledger only shows Leaderboard entries. Then the final video shows the next Weekly Reload reaching zero, paying nothing and resetting to 6d 23h. So the same loss sequence appears to fall into no paid weekly cycle. The 4 June support conversation makes this even more ridiculous. After I recorded the weekly reset video, I asked support a very simple question: what were the last weekly dates/cycles? The dashboard / support flow again said weekly bonuses are claimable every Thursday at 00:01 UTC. Jacky confirmed: “Weekly bonuses can be claimed every Thursday at 00:01 UTC in the Rewards tab,” and added that if not claimed by the following Wednesday at 23:59 UTC, it expires. But when I asked for the exact last four dates, Jacky said he had to check with the relevant department. When I pressed again, he said, “Sorry, As I am only a CS, Let me raise your concerns to relevant department.” I asked whether support did not have the information or simply could not answer. He replied: “Do you have any other concerns?” They use weekly cycles to decide whether to pay, but support cannot explain the weekly cycle. The monthly is missing too. The dashboard / UI said the monthly bonus is based on activity and VIP level from the previous month and is available on the 1st at 00:01 UTC. In May I had more than 3,258,023.0829 wagered according to the formal complaint data. I also have proof/video that the monthly slider was set to 50/50. On 1 June, Spencer first told me I had claimed the Monthly Bonus at 1:12am BST around the same time as the monthly leaderboard reward. I immediately said I only received leaderboard prizes. Then Spencer changed the answer: “Our tech team are still actively working on issues regarding the monthly bonuses.” So first the monthly was claimed, then tech was still fixing it. The ledger still shows no Monthly Bonus entry. Housebets then seems to rely on “up overall” as a defence. But the video and ledger show why that does not work. My weekly/monthly profile later showed around +6,008 P/L with 0 deposits, 0 wagered and around 6,008 in bonuses. That number matches exactly the two 1 June Leaderboard payments. So the UI is showing leaderboard rewards as P/L. Then support used “up overall” to say I was not eligible for weekly lossback. That is not a clean lossback calculation. That is using a leaderboard reward as apparent profit to deny a lossback that should be based on actual eligible losses. There were also smaller reward-confusion issues along the way. On 22 May I asked for all pending bonuses,weekly, monthly, rakeback, level-up, anything, and support said the internal team would manually verify whether everything had been credited correctly and email me. On 24 May, I asked about level-up rewards because the reward looked like $3,500 for Pearl; support clarified it was $3,500 total across all Pearl levels, $500 per level. These are not the core issues, but they are part of the same pattern: rewards marketing, unclear UI, manual verification, emails that do not arrive, and players having to chase basic explanations. Then there is the migration. On 25 May, after the delayed withdrawal, missing VIP contact and unresolved issues, support told me my account would be moved to the new platform and that this upgrade would offer a better withdrawal process and fix many issues. Before that migration, I explicitly requested that no account data, internal data, logs, balance history, bonus history, bet history, provider records or pending issues be deleted. The response: “Your request has been relayed to the relevant department.” Again, forwarding. But if the old data is safe, Housebets should provide the old leaderboard snapshots, old weekly states, old bonus logs, old Tequity mapping and old withdrawal approval logs. The founder response did not fix anything. When Porchy finally engaged, he did not provide the records. He framed the settlement request as “so you want $100,000?” and asked whether I needed it or else I was going to post on X. I had already made clear this was not money for silence; I asked for logs, snapshots, withdrawal records, calculations and a counter-calculation if Housebets disagreed. He later referred to “abusers,” told me I was “up overall,” said “You are begging for money,” and suggested I “just do this to casinos.” Still no ledger. Still no weekly calculation. Still no monthly entry. Still no PF/Tequity mapping. Still no leaderboard snapshots. Another player also contacted me with screenshots pointing to similar categories of issues: private deals, leaderboard payout disputes, migration/account merge problems, missing history and a tiny monthly bonus despite claimed losses. I am not using that player’s case as the foundation of my claim without his full ledger, but it matters because it suggests the same type of opacity may not be isolated: private VIP/reward deals, leaderboard eligibility, monthly bonus calculations, migration and unclear history. If Housebets has private deals that affect leaderboard eligibility or rewards, it must explain how those deals interact with public leaderboards. So the overall picture is this: Housebets sold a public leaderboard and rewards system that pressured real wagering. Two new accounts appeared directly behind me with huge volume, were confirmed as legitimate and eligible, then disappeared after I asked for logs and questioned game categories. Housebets could not explain the exact games, RTP, house edge or category mapping behind the volume. The accounts were later framed by Porchy as “abusers,” contradicting the earlier eligibility confirmation. Once Housebets paid me the leaderboard prizes, those prizes were shown as P/L, and that contaminated P/L was then used to claim I was “up overall” and not eligible for lossback. At the same time, my real 25 May 22:23 → 26 May 02:09 loss sequence of 91,168.375326 USDT appears in no clean weekly cycle. The 25 May weekly covered 21–24 May according to Spencer, so it cannot cover that loss sequence. The 28 May weekly showed only tiny Rakeback entries and was already reported as broken. The 1 June ledger shows only Leaderboard entries. The later video shows Weekly Reload reaching zero, paying nothing and resetting. And when I ask support for the exact weekly calendar, they cannot answer and send it to the relevant department. The monthly is the same story. The dashboard / UI says it is based on activity and VIP. I had more than 3.25M wagered in May. Spencer first says I claimed it, then says tech is still working on monthly bonuses. The ledger shows no Monthly Bonus. If Housebets says I was not eligible, they need to show the formula, slider history, cycle, GGR/NGR, eligible loss/activity, deductions and ledger result. If they cannot, “not eligible” is just another label. And this opens another can of worms: Tequity / provider configuration. Housebets cannot hide behind “the provider” whenever something goes wrong. The player does not deposit with Tequity. The player does not withdraw from Tequity. The player does not speak to Tequity support. The player does not compete in a Tequity leaderboard. The player plays on Housebets, with a Housebets wallet, Housebets UI, Housebets rewards, Housebets leaderboard and Housebets support. 1/2
22:49

🟢GIVEAWAY🟢 Best comments or memes about this whole circus + RT this post. 10 winners will each get $50💎 (For evidence, supporting materials, and context, read both articles and watch the video included in the article I posted yesterday) Housebets.com & Porchy pay your debts A few people told me they did not fully understand the first article because there were too many moving parts: leaderboard accounts, rewards, weekly dates, monthly bonus, Tequity, game categories, withdrawals, Provably Fair, seed changes, migration, support tickets, ledgers and founder messages. Fair enough. The evidence is already there, and I still recommend reading the full articles and, above all, watching the video, because the video shows the reward system failing live. But this text is the cleaner version: the full story explained in plain English, without assuming the reader knows anything about crypto casinos, leaderboards or lossback systems. From all the evidence I’ve gathered, the Housebets story is not a normal “player lost money” complaint. It looks like a full transparency failure across the whole product: leaderboard, rewards, withdrawals, game categories, Provably Fair / Tequity mapping, support, migration and founder response. Housebets sold itself as a rewards-first casino: public leaderboards, weekly/monthly bonuses, fast withdrawals, VIP treatment and Provably Fair games. But every time I asked for the records behind those systems, snapshots, ledger entries, weekly cycles, GGR/NGR, slider logs, PF seed mapping, Tequity round IDs, withdrawal approval logs, the answer became some version of “forwarded to the relevant department.” This started long before the public dispute. I was not some random angry player who appeared after one bad session. In January I was helping Housebets and giving product feedback. I literally told support on 27 January that I was “testing the website for George,” while already dealing with a non-instant withdrawal and a 100% welcome bonus that had not applied. Support even asked me for “proof about your testing job.” The same chat shows the advertised 100% Welcome Bonus, the bonus not applying, and support saying the withdrawal needed internal confirmation instead of being instant. The welcome bonus issue never looked clean. Housebets advertised a 100% Welcome Bonus up to $1,000 on first deposit; I deposited, contacted support, and the bonus did not apply. Then support effectively turned a first-deposit bonus into a second-deposit workaround because the first one had not been applied properly. On 31 January I came back after another deposit and told them the bonus still had not been applied, even though I had already followed support’s instructions. Edward replied that he had “forwarded” the concern to the team. The same 100% welcome bonus was still being advertised in March. By April, the rewards system was already showing serious problems. I had the weekly slider at 100% lossback and told support I had lost money but the weekly did not appear. Jacky said the weekly was generated every Thursday at 00:01 UTC and gave actual internal figures: GGR $6,250, Total Bonus $6,083.99, NGR $168.31. So Housebets clearly had internal calculations when it wanted to explain why something might not pay. But when I later asked for full calculations, those same numbers suddenly became impossible to produce. Then on 18–19 April, the rewards page was bugged and would not let me claim. Support could see a pending weekly bonus of $717.37, but I could not claim it from the UI. Tee said it had been forwarded to the relevant department. That $717.37 later appears in the bonus ledger as Rakeback (20 Apr) 717.37089061, so I am not saying that specific one stayed unpaid forever. The point is worse: already in April, support could see a pending weekly reward while the player-facing reward page did not work. For a casino built around rewards, that is not a small bug. That is the product. In May, the UI and account data kept failing basic trust checks. On 8 May, I deposited 400 USDT; support said it had been credited, but I could not see it, and the proposed fix was to log out, clear cookies and cache. On 16 May, I asked why total deposits and withdrawals had disappeared from the menu; support said the platform was “in continuous evolution.” On 17 May, I asked for my total deposits and withdrawals, and support said they did not have direct access to that consolidated summary and would email it. That full official ledger did not arrive. So when Housebets later defends itself with UI screenshots, remember: this was the same UI where deposits could be credited but invisible, totals disappeared, rewards pages bugged, and support could not access consolidated account totals. Withdrawals were also not what was advertised. On 16 May, I asked why a crypto withdrawal was pending if withdrawals were supposed to be instant. Tee answered: “A few withdrawals require manual approval,” then added, “Our withdrawals are typically instant but…” That matters because a few days later the withdrawal delay became real damage. On 25 May, I told support before a match that I needed the funds to place a time-sensitive bet on another site in less than 20 minutes. I explained I wanted to bet around 60k at odds of 2.55. The withdrawal did not arrive in time. Later I told them the bet won and that I missed around 90k in profit because Housebets took more than two hours despite being warned before the match started. Jacky said he would raise the compensation case to the VIP team. Nobody resolved it. This was not one delayed withdrawal either. In my formal complaint I reconstructed several withdrawal delays: 23 May 02:55 → 08:03, around 5h08m; 25 May 03:05 → 08:09, around 5h04m; 17 May 03:54 → 08:02, around 4h08m; 18 May 04:46 → 08:11, around 3h25m; 16 May 05:23 → 08:12, around 2h49m. That is not “instant withdrawal.” And if later marketing says withdrawals are much faster now, the obvious question is: if this was the faster version, what did slow look like? The Provably Fair / Tequity side was another major issue. On 17 May I asked support how to verify an old Blackjack round. I did not ask for a generic explanation of Provably Fair; I asked where I could see the server seed, client seed, nonce and result for previous games. Support sent me to bet history, mentioned RTP, gave a generic PF explanation and showed the current Dice seed screen. When I said that did not let me verify previous games, they told me to clear cookies/cache. After doing that, I saw a new client seed and nonce 1 even though I had not played with that seed pair. I asked if Housebets changes seeds on every login. Support could not answer and told me to contact VIP. That seed/session behaviour is important. I later recorded video evidence around the seed changing after clearing cookies/cache and asked for the exact mapping: Housebets account ID → Tequity/provider player ID → session/currency context → seed pair → server seed hash → revealed server seed → client seed → nonce/cursor → raw outcome → final result. Housebets cannot sell Provably Fair if the player cannot verify historical bets, and “contact VIP” is not a verification algorithm. On 24 May, I asked for raw verification data for a specific Tequity Blackjack round: Round ID e1648d60-0da1-4433-a5ab-9ae39f5302e3, Blackjack, Tequity, bet amount 11,346 USDT, client seed O3YBZF7LBu, server seed hash starting 712875.... I asked for revealed server seed, nonce, full result JSON, card draw order and verification algorithm. I also asked about an apparent duplicate-card/deck question. Tee replied: “I don’t have the answers to your questions right now, but I’m forwarding your request to the relevant department.” That same day, I asked for a full audit of six Dice bets of 11,400 USDT each, total 68,400 USDT. I requested bet IDs, provider round IDs, roll results, seed data, balance ledger, request/session logs, security logs, retry flags, provider records and a full technical reconciliation. Tee replied: “I will forward this to the relevant department.” So when I asked for raw data, the answer was not data. It was forwarding. Again. There were also many large loss clusters that required reconciliation because of those unresolved PF, Tequity, category, RTP and session questions. In my complaint I listed clusters such as 25 May 02:17–02:54 Blackjack around 169,932 USDT; 16 May 12:31–13:26 Dice around 90,571.92 USDT; 26 May 02:48–03:58 Mines around 89,199 USDT; 24 May 06:20–06:21 Dice at 68,400 USDT; 26 May 00:11–01:41 Blackjack around 59,910 USDT; 25 May 22:51–22:59 Dice around 59,576 USDT; and several more between 40k and 56k. I am not saying every losing cluster proves manipulation by itself. I am saying that when PF mapping, provider logs, RTP/HE, category mapping and seed/session behaviour are unresolved, these sequences need a real reconciliation. The leaderboard is where the story becomes very hard for Housebets to explain. Around 19–20 May, two new accounts, elmourabut and lucasmartirini, appeared and started climbing every day at a vertiginous pace. Not normal slow leaderboard growth. Not a casual player building volume over time. They were created around that period and then started rising with huge wagering in a way that looked extremely unnatural for brand new accounts. By 29 May, I was first on both weekly and monthly leaderboards, and those two accounts were directly behind me with huge volume. In the monthly leaderboard screenshots, I was around $3.33M wagered, while elmourabut was around $1.29M and lucasmartirini around $1.08M. In the weekly leaderboard, I was around $1.096M, while those two accounts were around $635k and $578k. They were not normal accounts sitting at the bottom; they were directly behind me, applying pressure. In my formal complaint I recorded that elmourabut joined on 19 May and lucasmartirini on 20 May, that they showed zero visible withdrawals, large deposits/wagering and significant card-game volume, and I asked Housebets to confirm they were not staff, test, QA, admin, house-controlled, affiliate-controlled, internally funded, promotional, bonus-only or multi-account related accounts. This matters because a leaderboard is not passive. It is gamification. It makes players defend rank. When two new accounts appear behind you with hundreds of thousands or more than a million in volume, you are pressured to keep wagering. In my case, the disputed deposit sequence from 25 May 22:23 to 26 May 02:09 totals 91,168.375326 USDT. That sequence begins with 1,000.00 at 22:23 and continues with repeated deposits until 2,879.148969 at 02:09. The video later shows why those dates matter: there were deposits coming in, no gameplay withdrawal offsetting the sequence, a balance basically at zero, and later a leaderboard prize shown as P/L. I formally asked Housebets to confirm those two leaderboard accounts were real and eligible, and also to preserve wager logs, transaction records, balance adjustment logs, account flags, leaderboard calculation snapshots, support ticket logs, Telegram/email records and internal notes. Edward said he forwarded the request. In the same thread, he added that they were “working on fixing an issue regarding the weekly bonuses,” and then said the weekly countdown was “not currently on Thursday evenings.” So the leaderboard issue and the weekly bonus issue are linked in time and support context. After that, Housebets confirmed by email that elmourabut and lucasmartirini were “legitimate and eligible accounts.” That email is the trap door. If they were legitimate and eligible, they should have remained in the leaderboard with their volume. If they were not, Housebets should never have confirmed them as legitimate and eligible. After that confirmation, the accounts disappeared from the leaderboard or stopped appearing in the positions their previous wagering required. I went back to support on 30 May and wrote: “There has been a material post-confirmation leaderboard change involving two accounts that Housebets had already confirmed as legitimate and eligible. I need the exact reason, timestamp, logs, and recalculation basis.” Edward said the matter was flagged and that I could expect a prompt response. I am still waiting for the actual explanation. Why did they disappear? My read is simple: because every hour that passed, there was more evidence around those accounts. They had been created around the same period, they were climbing at a speed that looked anything but human, they showed no visible withdrawals in the data I could see and reported, they appeared to be generating huge volume in unclear game categories, and the games/categories tied to that volume did not even make sense from the player-facing UI. When I started asking what they were actually playing, what Card meant, whether the volume was Tequity / UnOriginals / House Games, what RTP and house edge applied, and where the logs were, the questions became uncomfortable. Keeping those accounts visible became harder than removing them. So they disappeared. The game category issue made the leaderboard even more suspicious. On 30 May, I asked support why my own stats showed almost all my volume under Slots / Tragamonedas when I did not play real slots. I told them: “i dont play 3$ in unoriginals,” “i played all 3M in unoriginals,” and “ive never play slots.” I asked what “Card” was, where that game was, what RTP and house edge it had. Monica said Card was mainly Blackjack, Baccarat and Poker variants. Marcus later said the team was investigating why it showed that I mostly played slots when I had not. He could not give the exact game, RTP, HE, provider, category mapping or contribution logic. That matters because those same unclear categories were connected to leaderboard volume. If the site cannot clearly explain whether volume is Slots, Card, UnOriginals, House Games, Blackjack, Baccarat, Always 9 Baccarat or Tequity, then the leaderboard is not auditable for the player. I even asked which UnOriginals those two accounts were playing, and support told me to look at Live Bets. That is not an answer. I was not asking for gossip; I was asking what exact games generated leaderboard volume, what RTP/HE applied and whether that volume was eligible. There is also an earlier leaderboard-related precedent: Porchy had already told me in February that I would lose leaderboard places if I did not rename, because too many people were messaging support saying the site was not being fair due to my name and it “doesn’t make us look good.” That matters because it suggests leaderboard positioning was not treated as a sacred, untouchable system when public perception was involved. If leaderboard positions can be threatened for image reasons, then later claims that everything is purely automatic deserve scrutiny. Then Porchy made the leaderboard situation worse. Instead of producing logs or snapshots, he later said the leaderboard had “abusers” on it, that they were removed to help other players, and that it never affected me. Later he said they paid every single person, “even these abusers,” then called me “begging for money.” That creates a direct contradiction: Housebets confirmed the accounts as legitimate and eligible, then Porchy referred to leaderboard “abusers.” If they were abusers, why were they confirmed as legitimate and eligible? If they were eligible, why did they disappear? If they never affected me, where are the historical snapshots proving that? Once those accounts disappeared, Housebets paid the leaderboard prizes. On 1 June, the bonus ledger shows two Leaderboard entries: 5,007.46111706 and 1,001.49222341, totaling 6,008.95334047. That part was paid. But then Act Two started: the weekly and monthly rewards did not appear as separate ledger entries. The same bonus ledger shows those two 1 June entries as Leaderboard only, not Monthly Bonus, not Weekly Reload, not Lossback. The weekly timeline is a mess. On 28 May, the dashboard / UI said the weekly bonus was claimable every Thursday at 00:01 UTC, and the monthly was available on the 1st at 00:01 UTC. That same night I told support the weekly had shown as available, then reset to 6 days without paying. Later I sent screenshots and wrote: “1M wagered and 0.2$.” Jacky said he had raised the issue to the technical team. So the weekly failure was reported live, not reconstructed after the fact. The next day, 29 May, Edward said they were fixing an issue regarding weekly bonuses and that the weekly countdown was “not currently on Thursday evenings.” Then on 1 June, Spencer said the May weekly bonuses were 7th, 14th, 21st, and then due to migration the weekly moved to Monday, so there was one on the 25th on the new platform. He also said the 25 May weekly covered gameplay from 21–24 May, and that tech was looking at that plus the monthly bonus. The ledger does show a 25 May 02:10 Rakeback entry of 1,996.08334791, which likely corresponds to that 21–24 May weekly. But my major loss sequence starts about 20 hours later, on 25 May at 22:23, and continues until 26 May at 02:09. So the 25 May weekly cannot cover those losses. If weekly was still Thursday, the 25/26 losses should have been in the 28 May weekly. But the bonus ledger on 28 May shows only two tiny Rakeback entries, 0.28373945 and 0.00280958. If weekly moved to Monday because of migration, those losses should have appeared in the next weekly after 25 May. But on 1 June the ledger only shows Leaderboard entries. Then the final video shows the next Weekly Reload reaching zero, paying nothing and resetting to 6d 23h. So the same loss sequence appears to fall into no paid weekly cycle. The 4 June support conversation makes this even more ridiculous. After I recorded the weekly reset video, I asked support a very simple question: what were the last weekly dates/cycles? The dashboard / support flow again said weekly bonuses are claimable every Thursday at 00:01 UTC. Jacky confirmed: “Weekly bonuses can be claimed every Thursday at 00:01 UTC in the Rewards tab,” and added that if not claimed by the following Wednesday at 23:59 UTC, it expires. But when I asked for the exact last four dates, Jacky said he had to check with the relevant department. When I pressed again, he said, “Sorry, As I am only a CS, Let me raise your concerns to relevant department.” I asked whether support did not have the information or simply could not answer. He replied: “Do you have any other concerns?” They use weekly cycles to decide whether to pay, but support cannot explain the weekly cycle. The monthly is missing too. The dashboard / UI said the monthly bonus is based on activity and VIP level from the previous month and is available on the 1st at 00:01 UTC. In May I had more than 3,258,023.0829 wagered according to the formal complaint data. I also have proof/video that the monthly slider was set to 50/50. On 1 June, Spencer first told me I had claimed the Monthly Bonus at 1:12am BST around the same time as the monthly leaderboard reward. I immediately said I only received leaderboard prizes. Then Spencer changed the answer: “Our tech team are still actively working on issues regarding the monthly bonuses.” So first the monthly was claimed, then tech was still fixing it. The ledger still shows no Monthly Bonus entry. Housebets then seems to rely on “up overall” as a defence. But the video and ledger show why that does not work. My weekly/monthly profile later showed around +6,008 P/L with 0 deposits, 0 wagered and around 6,008 in bonuses. That number matches exactly the two 1 June Leaderboard payments. So the UI is showing leaderboard rewards as P/L. Then support used “up overall” to say I was not eligible for weekly lossback. That is not a clean lossback calculation. That is using a leaderboard reward as apparent profit to deny a lossback that should be based on actual eligible losses. There were also smaller reward-confusion issues along the way. On 22 May I asked for all pending bonuses,weekly, monthly, rakeback, level-up, anything, and support said the internal team would manually verify whether everything had been credited correctly and email me. On 24 May, I asked about level-up rewards because the reward looked like $3,500 for Pearl; support clarified it was $3,500 total across all Pearl levels, $500 per level. These are not the core issues, but they are part of the same pattern: rewards marketing, unclear UI, manual verification, emails that do not arrive, and players having to chase basic explanations. Then there is the migration. On 25 May, after the delayed withdrawal, missing VIP contact and unresolved issues, support told me my account would be moved to the new platform and that this upgrade would offer a better withdrawal process and fix many issues. Before that migration, I explicitly requested that no account data, internal data, logs, balance history, bonus history, bet history, provider records or pending issues be deleted. The response: “Your request has been relayed to the relevant department.” Again, forwarding. But if the old data is safe, Housebets should provide the old leaderboard snapshots, old weekly states, old bonus logs, old Tequity mapping and old withdrawal approval logs. The founder response did not fix anything. When Porchy finally engaged, he did not provide the records. He framed the settlement request as “so you want $100,000?” and asked whether I needed it or else I was going to post on X. I had already made clear this was not money for silence; I asked for logs, snapshots, withdrawal records, calculations and a counter-calculation if Housebets disagreed. He later referred to “abusers,” told me I was “up overall,” said “You are begging for money,” and suggested I “just do this to casinos.” Still no ledger. Still no weekly calculation. Still no monthly entry. Still no PF/Tequity mapping. Still no leaderboard snapshots. Another player also contacted me with screenshots pointing to similar categories of issues: private deals, leaderboard payout disputes, migration/account merge problems, missing history and a tiny monthly bonus despite claimed losses. I am not using that player’s case as the foundation of my claim without his full ledger, but it matters because it suggests the same type of opacity may not be isolated: private VIP/reward deals, leaderboard eligibility, monthly bonus calculations, migration and unclear history. If Housebets has private deals that affect leaderboard eligibility or rewards, it must explain how those deals interact with public leaderboards. So the overall picture is this: Housebets sold a public leaderboard and rewards system that pressured real wagering. Two new accounts appeared directly behind me with huge volume, were confirmed as legitimate and eligible, then disappeared after I asked for logs and questioned game categories. Housebets could not explain the exact games, RTP, house edge or category mapping behind the volume. The accounts were later framed by Porchy as “abusers,” contradicting the earlier eligibility confirmation. Once Housebets paid me the leaderboard prizes, those prizes were shown as P/L, and that contaminated P/L was then used to claim I was “up overall” and not eligible for lossback. At the same time, my real 25 May 22:23 → 26 May 02:09 loss sequence of 91,168.375326 USDT appears in no clean weekly cycle. The 25 May weekly covered 21–24 May according to Spencer, so it cannot cover that loss sequence. The 28 May weekly showed only tiny Rakeback entries and was already reported as broken. The 1 June ledger shows only Leaderboard entries. The later video shows Weekly Reload reaching zero, paying nothing and resetting. And when I ask support for the exact weekly calendar, they cannot answer and send it to the relevant department. The monthly is the same story. The dashboard / UI says it is based on activity and VIP. I had more than 3.25M wagered in May. Spencer first says I claimed it, then says tech is still working on monthly bonuses. The ledger shows no Monthly Bonus. If Housebets says I was not eligible, they need to show the formula, slider history, cycle, GGR/NGR, eligible loss/activity, deductions and ledger result. If they cannot, “not eligible” is just another label. And this opens another can of worms: Tequity / provider configuration. Housebets cannot hide behind “the provider” whenever something goes wrong. The player does not deposit with Tequity. The player does not withdraw from Tequity. The player does not speak to Tequity support. The player does not compete in a Tequity leaderboard. The player plays on Housebets, with a Housebets wallet, Housebets UI, Housebets rewards, Housebets leaderboard and Housebets support. 1/2

Dr. W

20,491 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

77 Reasons Why I’ve Invested Over $8,000,000+ in MultiversX (EGLD) and Why EGLD Will Crush It in 2025 (My Investment Thesis). I publicly shared my portfolio on X. EGLD is A) Better than BTC B) Everything that ETH wants to be C) The GameStop of Crypto 1. EGLD is verifiably the most scalable (theoretically unlimited) L1 chain in the world, theoretically capable of over 10 million TPS (thanks to adaptive state sharding). 2. e-Gold is digital gold. It has the best tokenomics among all L1s, similarly scarce to BTC, with a maximum supply of 31.4 million coins. Currently, 27.68 million coins are in circulation. 3. EGLD will be the most decentralized cryptocurrency in the world thanks to sharding and minimal hardware requirements for running nodes. It’s already second only to Ethereum with 3,618 validator nodes. 4. EGLD has extremely low fees, around ~$0.002 per transaction. 5. EGLD is extremely secure. No wallet drains like on ETH/SOL; assets are owned natively (not via a smart contract). There is no MEV risk (front-running bots). 6. EGLD is the only chain in the world with an on-chain Guardian (two-phase verification), making it impossible for a hacker to steal your funds—even if they have your private keys (seed phrase). 7. EGLD is carbon-neutral and eco-friendly, not wasting energy like BTC and other PoW chains. It’s exceptionally efficient, scalable, global, and sustainable. 8. EGLD has the best UX in crypto. Download the xPortal wallet—it’s like discovering Apple in Web3. The interface is simple, flawless, and you barely realize you’re using crypto. Instead of addresses, you use HeroTags. The app features all dApps, everything runs smoothly, and the visuals are beautifully designed. The explorer, web wallet, etc. follow the same high-quality user experience. 9. EGLD supports native assets, unlike Ethereum, for example. 10. EGLD is the first chain to fully implement horizontal (theoretically unlimited) sharding without compromising on decentralization—unlike Solana and others that attempt vertical scaling, leading to multiple network downtimes (11+ times) and huge hardware demands for validators, ultimately harming decentralization. 11. EGLD makes setting up a validator agency extremely easy. Even complete IT beginners can do it. The UX and documentation are superb. I personally set up the “EGLDSqueeze” agency in about 30 minutes. Managing it is straightforward via the web wallet, which feels like managing a Facebook page. This simplifies decentralization enormously. 12. EGLD allows literally anyone (even your grandma) to participate in decentralization, since nodes can run on a Raspberry Pi or a relatively affordable phone. Imagine millions of people worldwide securing the network, validating transactions without even knowing it. This can’t be done with BTC, where setting up profitable mining operations is prohibitively expensive. 13. WASM-Based Virtual Machine: You can write smart contracts in your favorite language, compile them, and run them via the fastest VM in the world. 14. EGLD has been tested at an incredible 263,000 TPS using its sharding mechanism and low hardware requirements. Allegedly, by mid-next year (April), they’ll demonstrate 1,000,000 TPS. (For context: Mastercard handles around 5,000 TPS; BTC handles 5–7 TPS.) 15. EGLD is currently the most advanced L1 in terms of scalability, security, decentralization, UX, eco-friendliness, and tokenomics. It’s the only chain that has genuinely solved the Blockchain Trilemma and is ready to onboard 1 billion people into crypto—users who won’t even realize they’re interacting with crypto. 16. EGLD is perfectly positioned for AI projects—AI agents, AI tools, or a so-called “Truth Machine” that monitors other AIs on-chain, documenting what’s true and comparing different AI outputs (some of which may be censored or biased), ensuring people don’t get confused or scammed in an AI-driven world. 17. The EGLD team is the hardest-working team I’ve ever encountered. I had the honor of meeting many of them personally, and can attest that their pace—even during a bear market—is extraordinary. 18. EGLD’s development team is exceptionally active on GitHub, continually improving their network and actively committing code. 19. EGLD plans to introduce an update reducing block time to 600ms (down from ~6 seconds), which would make the chain essentially unrivaled. 20. EGLD is effectively the only usable L1 in Europe, and the team has direct connections within the EU government—extremely bullish for the project. 21. EGLD provides top-tier on-chain governance not only for the MultiversX (EGLD) protocol but also for DeFi projects (e.g., xExchange, MEX). 22. EGLD plans to expand to the US, likely opening offices in Austin, Texas. This could put them in direct contact with Elon Musk (if it hasn’t happened already), as he’s involved with If he’s done his research, he’d discover there’s simply no better L1 worldwide. 23. EGLD solved fully implemented sharding, perfect tokenomics, and top-tier architecture with just $5M, whereas other chains failed to do so even with $100M+. The second-best sharding network, NEAR, needed $100M, has worse tokenomics, and its sharding isn’t fully implemented yet. Its UX also doesn’t compare. Owning NEAR was like comparing a VW Golf R to a Porsche GT3—EGLD is the Porsche GT3. 24. According to Similarweb, EGLD has significantly high traffic relative to other chains with market caps 100x larger. The market cap vs. web traffic discrepancy is huge, which is a strong indicator of EGLD’s potential. 25. EGLD has the most active and dedicated community relative to its user base, with users who believe in the technology, have full faith in the team, and remain loyal despite price volatility—because they use the chain and know there’s nothing better. 26. Check other chains’ active user counts on X (Twitter) and compare it with the followers of EGLD’s founders and main network accounts, versus those with 30x, 50x, or 100x larger market caps. 27. Visit the MultiversX website to observe the futuristic design and presentation, then compare it to other chains that appear nearly a decade behind in design and branding. 28. EGLD hosts the xDay Global event, showcasing updates, new builders, projects in the ecosystem, and major announcements—similar to Apple’s Keynotes—delivered in a highly professional, goosebump-inducing atmosphere. The next event is in Korea, the second-biggest crypto market after the US. Check out their previous xDay after-movie to see why this is extremely bullish. 29. EGLD is moving forward with plans for the first regulated, audited EU stablecoin under MiCa regulation, made possible by acquiring xMoney, which I view as a “Stripe” for crypto/fiat, offering everything from user solutions to merchant services—potentially the future of payments. 30. Greg Siourouni recently joined EGLD, having been an executive director at SUI Foundation. He’s now co-founder of xMoney Global. xMoney (formerly UTrust, with token UTK) is owned and founded by the MultiversX Labs team. A stablecoin might be introduced soon, which would be massively bullish given xMoney’s roadmap. They recently announced integrations with Binance Pay—both ways. 31. EGLD prioritizes user safety, believing it’s the only feasible approach once the network scales to serve a billion people—many of whom are retail users with little to no security awareness. 32. EGLD offers “Sovereign Chains,” letting you effectively clone their chain without heavy development, set up your own validators, and leverage their unlimited scalability. Any blockchain (ETH, BTC, SOL) struggling with scalability, decentralization, or security could run an ultra-fast, scalable, and secure L2 on EGLD’s Sovereign Chain, meeting top enterprise requirements. No one else has really done this. The Sovereign Chain demo achieved astonishing TPS and has an SDK. 33. No downtime since inception. 34. No shard takeover attacks have occurred. 35. Extremely fast—soon 600ms block time will be in place. 36. ESDTs – The best token standard available: fungible, non-fungible, semi-fungible, DeFi assets—everything is native and highly customizable. 37. Top-tier composability of assets and smart contracts. 38. Integrated DNS at protocol level with HeroTags (nicknames) instead of long addresses. 39. Asynchronous calls are supported. 40. Cross-shard transfers, execution, reverts, and calls are seamlessly integrated. 41. The best staking system in the space. Secure Proof of Stake (SPoS) is far more efficient than Proof of Work (PoW). 42. Built-in Delegation and Staking Provider system, with over 125K delegators. 43. Complete support for liquid staked assets, fostering decentralization rather than centralization. 44. TransferRoles for ESDT and other advanced operations. 45. Composable tasks on-chain for more sophisticated DeFi workflows. 46. MultiTransfer and asset execution within one transaction. 47. Re-entrancy protection is built-in by design. 48. Storage for ESDT assets goes beyond a linear approach, optimizing performance. 49. No integer overflows thanks to integrated safeMath operations. 50. Integrated crypto opcodes in the VM, enhancing security and performance. 51. Support for BigFloats, BigInts, and BigDecimals, enabling advanced financial calculations on-chain. 52. No sandwich attacks, plus front-running and MEV protection. 53. Relayed Transactions, simplifying user interactions and fees. 54. Smart Accounts featuring data tries and multiple built-in functions. 55. Generalized Paymaster solutions, enabling flexible fee models. 56. Subscriptions for recurring or automated on-chain payments. 57. Web2-like usability with Web3 functionality, bridging mainstream adoption. 58. StakingV4 for improved decentralization. 59. Enhanced MEV protection rolling out to safeguard users. 60. Parallel execution is coming soon, boosting throughput. 61. 1 million TPS is on the roadmap, targeted for demonstration. 62. 600ms block time is also coming soon. 63. Reduced cross-shard processing is planned to improve efficiency. 64. ZK everywhere (PI²): “prove everything” approach is coming. 65. AsyncV3 is in development for more complex cross-contract interactions. 66. Scalability enhancements for Merkle Tries or a new data model are being explored. 67. Linear storage on the VM is forthcoming. 68. A dynamic language interpreter at the VM is also planned. 69. Rumors suggest that MultiversX (EGLD) is building a “Truth Machine” on their L1—an essential, game-changing tool for AI verification and societal impact. 70. The entire team features individuals with PhDs in mathematics and physics, and many are former engineers at Google, IBM, and similar companies. 71. Over 56% of the network’s supply is staked, showcasing strong community involvement. 72. More than 6,772,347 accounts have been created on the network. 73. A total of 476,627,710 transactions have been processed on-chain without any outages or hacks. 74. EGLD has built a massive ecosystem over time. While not as numerous in project count as Solana, its market cap is ~100x smaller, yet it has far superior tokenomics and technology. The projects that do exist, like Hatom Protocol, are top-tier in UX, security, and advanced features. Hatom will soon introduce USH, a truly high-quality, decentralized stablecoin. 75. On competing chains, automated transactions aren’t easily or cheaply executed, whereas on MultiversX, tools like let you do this for free (with near-zero fees). 76. No other chain combines such a strong team and long-term vision where every product meets extreme security and UX standards like MultiversX does. This is why I see it as the “next Apple” in Web3. 77. MultiversX has a new CMO – Adam Bates, a former CMO at the Cardano Foundation. He was behind the success of Cardano’s huge marketing campaign and has a very good relationship with Charles Hoskinson. Thanks to him, Beniamin Mincu (the founder of MultiversX) was likely introduced, and now they will probably discuss how both blockchains can help each other, as well as any other potential collaborations we don’t yet know about. This is also extremely bullish. #EGLD is undeniably the most Scalable, Advanced, Secure, and User-friendly L1 supercomputer ever created. It’s built to SHAPE THE FUTURE. 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 27/6/2024 - EGLDSqueeze - SUMMARY: HERE IS NO 2ND BEST. EGLD IS ONLY ONE BLOCKCHAIN THAT CAN RULE THEM ALL. ✅ UNLIMITED SCALING ✅ SCARCE AS BTC ✅ PROGRAMMABLE AS ETH ✅ NO DOWNTIME AS SOL ✅ UI/UX OF Apple ✅ SHARDING DONE BEFORE NEAR & TON ✅ BEST WALLET xPortal WITH GUARDIAN Price prediction (NFA|DYOR): My reasoning is that the real market cap as of December 23, 2024...if we take into account the value of other cryptocurrencies such as BTC, SOL, ETH, AVAX, NEAR, TON, Cardano, BNB, XRP, and so forth, plus the existence of meme coins with valuations above 20 billion USD, or even games nobody plays anymore that still have valuations above 800 million shows that EGLD’s current market cap of approximately 942 million USD is incredibly low. From a technological standpoint, user experience, and other relevant aspects, compared to SOL, NEAR, TON, AVAX, and other L1 protocols, EGLD’s market cap should realistically be around 100 billion USD. Therefore, my prediction and investment thesis is a minimum of a 100x increase from its current price (+-SOL marketcap). MultiversX is ready to onboard 1 billion people to the blockchain. From a long-term perspective, it could even reach a market cap of 1 trillion USD, which is roughly half of where BTC is right now. That would be approximately a 1060x gain from the current market cap. 1 EGLD (MultiversX) is for $34 (only 31.4M max supply) think about this. Not financial advice. Again. There is no 2nd best L1. Position yourself where the puck is going, then wait at the goal until the goal gets there Apes together, strong. Ape alone, weak. We Don't Worry. We Just Win. Shape The Future
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77 Reasons Why I’ve Invested Over $8,000,000+ in MultiversX (EGLD) and Why EGLD Will Crush It in 2025 (My Investment Thesis). I publicly shared my portfolio on X. EGLD is A) Better than BTC B) Everything that ETH wants to be C) The GameStop of Crypto 1. EGLD is verifiably the most scalable (theoretically unlimited) L1 chain in the world, theoretically capable of over 10 million TPS (thanks to adaptive state sharding). 2. e-Gold is digital gold. It has the best tokenomics among all L1s, similarly scarce to BTC, with a maximum supply of 31.4 million coins. Currently, 27.68 million coins are in circulation. 3. EGLD will be the most decentralized cryptocurrency in the world thanks to sharding and minimal hardware requirements for running nodes. It’s already second only to Ethereum with 3,618 validator nodes. 4. EGLD has extremely low fees, around ~$0.002 per transaction. 5. EGLD is extremely secure. No wallet drains like on ETH/SOL; assets are owned natively (not via a smart contract). There is no MEV risk (front-running bots). 6. EGLD is the only chain in the world with an on-chain Guardian (two-phase verification), making it impossible for a hacker to steal your funds—even if they have your private keys (seed phrase). 7. EGLD is carbon-neutral and eco-friendly, not wasting energy like BTC and other PoW chains. It’s exceptionally efficient, scalable, global, and sustainable. 8. EGLD has the best UX in crypto. Download the xPortal wallet—it’s like discovering Apple in Web3. The interface is simple, flawless, and you barely realize you’re using crypto. Instead of addresses, you use HeroTags. The app features all dApps, everything runs smoothly, and the visuals are beautifully designed. The explorer, web wallet, etc. follow the same high-quality user experience. 9. EGLD supports native assets, unlike Ethereum, for example. 10. EGLD is the first chain to fully implement horizontal (theoretically unlimited) sharding without compromising on decentralization—unlike Solana and others that attempt vertical scaling, leading to multiple network downtimes (11+ times) and huge hardware demands for validators, ultimately harming decentralization. 11. EGLD makes setting up a validator agency extremely easy. Even complete IT beginners can do it. The UX and documentation are superb. I personally set up the “EGLDSqueeze” agency in about 30 minutes. Managing it is straightforward via the web wallet, which feels like managing a Facebook page. This simplifies decentralization enormously. 12. EGLD allows literally anyone (even your grandma) to participate in decentralization, since nodes can run on a Raspberry Pi or a relatively affordable phone. Imagine millions of people worldwide securing the network, validating transactions without even knowing it. This can’t be done with BTC, where setting up profitable mining operations is prohibitively expensive. 13. WASM-Based Virtual Machine: You can write smart contracts in your favorite language, compile them, and run them via the fastest VM in the world. 14. EGLD has been tested at an incredible 263,000 TPS using its sharding mechanism and low hardware requirements. Allegedly, by mid-next year (April), they’ll demonstrate 1,000,000 TPS. (For context: Mastercard handles around 5,000 TPS; BTC handles 5–7 TPS.) 15. EGLD is currently the most advanced L1 in terms of scalability, security, decentralization, UX, eco-friendliness, and tokenomics. It’s the only chain that has genuinely solved the Blockchain Trilemma and is ready to onboard 1 billion people into crypto—users who won’t even realize they’re interacting with crypto. 16. EGLD is perfectly positioned for AI projects—AI agents, AI tools, or a so-called “Truth Machine” that monitors other AIs on-chain, documenting what’s true and comparing different AI outputs (some of which may be censored or biased), ensuring people don’t get confused or scammed in an AI-driven world. 17. The EGLD team is the hardest-working team I’ve ever encountered. I had the honor of meeting many of them personally, and can attest that their pace—even during a bear market—is extraordinary. 18. EGLD’s development team is exceptionally active on GitHub, continually improving their network and actively committing code. 19. EGLD plans to introduce an update reducing block time to 600ms (down from ~6 seconds), which would make the chain essentially unrivaled. 20. EGLD is effectively the only usable L1 in Europe, and the team has direct connections within the EU government—extremely bullish for the project. 21. EGLD provides top-tier on-chain governance not only for the MultiversX (EGLD) protocol but also for DeFi projects (e.g., xExchange, MEX). 22. EGLD plans to expand to the US, likely opening offices in Austin, Texas. This could put them in direct contact with Elon Musk (if it hasn’t happened already), as he’s involved with If he’s done his research, he’d discover there’s simply no better L1 worldwide. 23. EGLD solved fully implemented sharding, perfect tokenomics, and top-tier architecture with just $5M, whereas other chains failed to do so even with $100M+. The second-best sharding network, NEAR, needed $100M, has worse tokenomics, and its sharding isn’t fully implemented yet. Its UX also doesn’t compare. Owning NEAR was like comparing a VW Golf R to a Porsche GT3—EGLD is the Porsche GT3. 24. According to Similarweb, EGLD has significantly high traffic relative to other chains with market caps 100x larger. The market cap vs. web traffic discrepancy is huge, which is a strong indicator of EGLD’s potential. 25. EGLD has the most active and dedicated community relative to its user base, with users who believe in the technology, have full faith in the team, and remain loyal despite price volatility—because they use the chain and know there’s nothing better. 26. Check other chains’ active user counts on X (Twitter) and compare it with the followers of EGLD’s founders and main network accounts, versus those with 30x, 50x, or 100x larger market caps. 27. Visit the MultiversX website to observe the futuristic design and presentation, then compare it to other chains that appear nearly a decade behind in design and branding. 28. EGLD hosts the xDay Global event, showcasing updates, new builders, projects in the ecosystem, and major announcements—similar to Apple’s Keynotes—delivered in a highly professional, goosebump-inducing atmosphere. The next event is in Korea, the second-biggest crypto market after the US. Check out their previous xDay after-movie to see why this is extremely bullish. 29. EGLD is moving forward with plans for the first regulated, audited EU stablecoin under MiCa regulation, made possible by acquiring xMoney, which I view as a “Stripe” for crypto/fiat, offering everything from user solutions to merchant services—potentially the future of payments. 30. Greg Siourouni recently joined EGLD, having been an executive director at SUI Foundation. He’s now co-founder of xMoney Global. xMoney (formerly UTrust, with token UTK) is owned and founded by the MultiversX Labs team. A stablecoin might be introduced soon, which would be massively bullish given xMoney’s roadmap. They recently announced integrations with Binance Pay—both ways. 31. EGLD prioritizes user safety, believing it’s the only feasible approach once the network scales to serve a billion people—many of whom are retail users with little to no security awareness. 32. EGLD offers “Sovereign Chains,” letting you effectively clone their chain without heavy development, set up your own validators, and leverage their unlimited scalability. Any blockchain (ETH, BTC, SOL) struggling with scalability, decentralization, or security could run an ultra-fast, scalable, and secure L2 on EGLD’s Sovereign Chain, meeting top enterprise requirements. No one else has really done this. The Sovereign Chain demo achieved astonishing TPS and has an SDK. 33. No downtime since inception. 34. No shard takeover attacks have occurred. 35. Extremely fast—soon 600ms block time will be in place. 36. ESDTs – The best token standard available: fungible, non-fungible, semi-fungible, DeFi assets—everything is native and highly customizable. 37. Top-tier composability of assets and smart contracts. 38. Integrated DNS at protocol level with HeroTags (nicknames) instead of long addresses. 39. Asynchronous calls are supported. 40. Cross-shard transfers, execution, reverts, and calls are seamlessly integrated. 41. The best staking system in the space. Secure Proof of Stake (SPoS) is far more efficient than Proof of Work (PoW). 42. Built-in Delegation and Staking Provider system, with over 125K delegators. 43. Complete support for liquid staked assets, fostering decentralization rather than centralization. 44. TransferRoles for ESDT and other advanced operations. 45. Composable tasks on-chain for more sophisticated DeFi workflows. 46. MultiTransfer and asset execution within one transaction. 47. Re-entrancy protection is built-in by design. 48. Storage for ESDT assets goes beyond a linear approach, optimizing performance. 49. No integer overflows thanks to integrated safeMath operations. 50. Integrated crypto opcodes in the VM, enhancing security and performance. 51. Support for BigFloats, BigInts, and BigDecimals, enabling advanced financial calculations on-chain. 52. No sandwich attacks, plus front-running and MEV protection. 53. Relayed Transactions, simplifying user interactions and fees. 54. Smart Accounts featuring data tries and multiple built-in functions. 55. Generalized Paymaster solutions, enabling flexible fee models. 56. Subscriptions for recurring or automated on-chain payments. 57. Web2-like usability with Web3 functionality, bridging mainstream adoption. 58. StakingV4 for improved decentralization. 59. Enhanced MEV protection rolling out to safeguard users. 60. Parallel execution is coming soon, boosting throughput. 61. 1 million TPS is on the roadmap, targeted for demonstration. 62. 600ms block time is also coming soon. 63. Reduced cross-shard processing is planned to improve efficiency. 64. ZK everywhere (PI²): “prove everything” approach is coming. 65. AsyncV3 is in development for more complex cross-contract interactions. 66. Scalability enhancements for Merkle Tries or a new data model are being explored. 67. Linear storage on the VM is forthcoming. 68. A dynamic language interpreter at the VM is also planned. 69. Rumors suggest that MultiversX (EGLD) is building a “Truth Machine” on their L1—an essential, game-changing tool for AI verification and societal impact. 70. The entire team features individuals with PhDs in mathematics and physics, and many are former engineers at Google, IBM, and similar companies. 71. Over 56% of the network’s supply is staked, showcasing strong community involvement. 72. More than 6,772,347 accounts have been created on the network. 73. A total of 476,627,710 transactions have been processed on-chain without any outages or hacks. 74. EGLD has built a massive ecosystem over time. While not as numerous in project count as Solana, its market cap is ~100x smaller, yet it has far superior tokenomics and technology. The projects that do exist, like Hatom Protocol, are top-tier in UX, security, and advanced features. Hatom will soon introduce USH, a truly high-quality, decentralized stablecoin. 75. On competing chains, automated transactions aren’t easily or cheaply executed, whereas on MultiversX, tools like let you do this for free (with near-zero fees). 76. No other chain combines such a strong team and long-term vision where every product meets extreme security and UX standards like MultiversX does. This is why I see it as the “next Apple” in Web3. 77. MultiversX has a new CMO – Adam Bates, a former CMO at the Cardano Foundation. He was behind the success of Cardano’s huge marketing campaign and has a very good relationship with Charles Hoskinson. Thanks to him, Beniamin Mincu (the founder of MultiversX) was likely introduced, and now they will probably discuss how both blockchains can help each other, as well as any other potential collaborations we don’t yet know about. This is also extremely bullish. #EGLD is undeniably the most Scalable, Advanced, Secure, and User-friendly L1 supercomputer ever created. It’s built to SHAPE THE FUTURE. 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 27/6/2024 - EGLDSqueeze - SUMMARY: HERE IS NO 2ND BEST. EGLD IS ONLY ONE BLOCKCHAIN THAT CAN RULE THEM ALL. ✅ UNLIMITED SCALING ✅ SCARCE AS BTC ✅ PROGRAMMABLE AS ETH ✅ NO DOWNTIME AS SOL ✅ UI/UX OF Apple ✅ SHARDING DONE BEFORE NEAR & TON ✅ BEST WALLET xPortal WITH GUARDIAN Price prediction (NFA|DYOR): My reasoning is that the real market cap as of December 23, 2024...if we take into account the value of other cryptocurrencies such as BTC, SOL, ETH, AVAX, NEAR, TON, Cardano, BNB, XRP, and so forth, plus the existence of meme coins with valuations above 20 billion USD, or even games nobody plays anymore that still have valuations above 800 million shows that EGLD’s current market cap of approximately 942 million USD is incredibly low. From a technological standpoint, user experience, and other relevant aspects, compared to SOL, NEAR, TON, AVAX, and other L1 protocols, EGLD’s market cap should realistically be around 100 billion USD. Therefore, my prediction and investment thesis is a minimum of a 100x increase from its current price (+-SOL marketcap). MultiversX is ready to onboard 1 billion people to the blockchain. From a long-term perspective, it could even reach a market cap of 1 trillion USD, which is roughly half of where BTC is right now. That would be approximately a 1060x gain from the current market cap. 1 EGLD (MultiversX) is for $34 (only 31.4M max supply) think about this. Not financial advice. Again. There is no 2nd best L1. Position yourself where the puck is going, then wait at the goal until the goal gets there Apes together, strong. Ape alone, weak. We Don't Worry. We Just Win. Shape The Future

Daniel Veroc

50,650 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

In 1998, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger spent 4 hours explaining why the smartest people in finance keep going broke. It might be the most valuable finance lecture ever recorded: 1. The smartest people in finance went completely broke. Long-term Capital Management had 16 people with possibly the highest average IQ of any firm in the country, 350 to 400 combined years of experience, and most of their own net worth in the fund. They still went bankrupt. Buffett said if he ever wrote a book it would be called why smart people do dumb things. 2. Life and markets have no relation to sigmas. Buffett keeps a 1901 newspaper on his office wall. Northern Pacific went from $170 to $1,000 a share in a single day when two buyers accidentally cornered the stock. A brewer who had shorted it, facing a margin call, dove into a vat of hot beer. That man probably understood sigmas and knew such a move was impossible. Buffett has never wanted to end up in the vat. 3. Beta and sigmas tell you nothing about the risk of going broke. the LTCM team relied on mathematics and believed a six- or seven-sigma event could not touch them. they were wrong. history does not tell you the probabilities of future financial events. the real risk is a permanent blind spot in something crucial, often caused by knowing a great deal about something else. 4. To a man with a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. Munger's explanation for why brilliant people do dumb things. They learn a set of mathematical techniques and then twist every problem to fit the solution they already know. Combine that with a poor grasp of history, and you get people with advanced degrees blowing themselves up. 5. To make money they did not need, they risked money they did need. That is just plain foolish, Buffett says, no matter your IQ. Hand him a gun with a million chambers and one bullet, offer any sum to put it to his temple and pull once, and he will not do it. there is nothing on the upside that justifies the downside. people do this financially all the time without thinking. 6. The major banks all had risk models and had no idea what they owned. they met weekly at risk committees, printed all the statistics in neat columns, and did not have the faintest idea what risk they were carrying. The rare and essential quality is someone who can contemplate perils that have not popped up yet, the ones no past model contains. 7. A chief risk officer often just makes you feel good while you do dumb things. munger compares him to the Delphic oracle who convinced the Persian king to attack. he has a PhD and does advanced math, but he tortures reality to defend a model that does not hold under extreme conditions. all that computation makes you feel like you clobbered the risk when you have only clobbered your own head. 8. The whole quant risk system just changed the shape of the curve and kept going. Munger notes the business schools "improved" by throwing away the Gaussian curve and drawing a different one. They talk about fat tails now, but they still have no idea how fat to make them. he and Buffett always knew the tails were there, and used to roll their eyes at the risk-control people at Salomon. 9. Never risk what you have and need for what you do not have and do not need. Buffett will not explain to his family, who hold most of their net worth in Berkshire, that they went broke on a 100-to-1 gamble. Their returns get penalized 99 years out of 100 by being too conservative, and in the hundredth year they survive when others do not. 10. Build the business so that if the world stops working tomorrow, you have no problem. Berkshire double-layers its protection. First, they behave so no rational person questions their credit, then they hold so much liquidity that if the world suddenly hated their credit, they would not notice for months. It gives up higher returns 99% of the time and survives the one time others do not. 11. The real danger is a risk that has never happened before. Buffett wants someone who can imagine perils that have not yet appeared, the ones no model contains. The major institutions all had models, and that inability to envision the unprecedented is exactly what proved fatal. He and Munger spend a lot of time thinking about things that could hit them out of the blue that others leave out entirely. 12. Investing is simple, but not easy. The framework is not complicated. you did not need a high IQ to buy junk bonds in 2002 or stocks at low multiples in 1974. you just needed the courage of your convictions and the willingness to act when everyone else was paralyzed. Following logic rather than emotion is obvious, and yet some people find it almost impossible. 13. You cannot get rich with a weathervane. Buffett and Munger pay no attention to predictions about the economy or the market. People love predictions, entire industries are built on them, but it is like the king hiring a forecaster to read sheep guts. They have never made or avoided a single business purchase because of a macro view. 14. Name one super-wealthy economist. Munger's challenge. All these economists with 160 IQs spend their lives studying markets, and you cannot find one who got rich buying securities. Even Keynes tried to predict the credit cycle, broke a couple of times, and only did well once he switched to buying good businesses cheap and concentrating. 15. Focus only on what is important and knowable. Some things are important but unknowable, like whether someone drops a nuclear weapon tomorrow. Some things are knowable but unimportant. You narrow your attention to the small set of things that are both important and knowable, and you ignore everything else. 16. The market is there to serve you, not to instruct you. This is Graham's chapter eight, and Buffett calls it enormously important. When people talk about momentum or charts, they are saying the market instructs you. It does not. It just quotes prices. When it does something silly, you get a chance to act. Otherwise you go play bridge and check again tomorrow. 17. You can make a decision in five minutes or not at all. Buffett and Munger act fast because they rule out enormous territory in advance. Munger blots out startups entirely, and half a dozen other filters, so what remains is small enough to judge instantly. If they cannot decide in five minutes, they will not learn enough in five months to make up for going in deficient. 18. You can make a lot of money on a Sunday. Buffett said the calls you get on a Sunday, when things are truly screwed up, are the ones you make money on. All you have to do is be the collie and not the caller. You never get in a position where the other party can call your tune, so you can always play out your hand. 19. You are not right because others agree with you. Ben Graham said you are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees. You are right because your facts and reasoning are right. Being contrarian has no special virtue over being a trend follower. All that matters is whether the facts are correct and the logic is sound. 20. Know where the edge of your circle of competence is. Buffett says the size of your circle does not matter. Knowing its perimeter does. You do not have to understand 90% of businesses. You just have to know something real about the few you actually put money into, and honestly recognize the ones you do not understand and walk away. 21. Intrinsic value is just the cash a business will produce, discounted back. Buffett thinks of every business as a bond with coupons that are not printed on it. Your job as an investor is to estimate those future coupons. If you cannot estimate them, like in a high-tech company, you pass. Investing is putting out money to get more back from what the asset produces, not from selling it to someone else. 22. The best businesses earn a royalty and need little capital. Coca-Cola sells a formula and takes a cut of every drink. Magazines like People operate on negative capital because subscribers pay in advance. The great businesses are the ones that can grow very large while needing almost no capital, which is why consumer businesses with pricing power are so valuable. 23. You only have to find one good idea, not twenty. Munger said you cannot find twenty deeply mispriced things, and Buffett agreed you do not need to. You do not have to have tons of good ideas in this business. You just need one good idea that is worth a ton, occasionally. For small sums, Buffett said he would have been 100% in Korea a few years earlier, where great companies traded at three times earnings. 24. The trick is measuring everything against your best opportunity. Munger calls this opportunity cost, the doctrine from the first page of the economics textbook that modern portfolio theory somehow ignored. Once you have found the best thing you understand, you measure every other option against it. The higher your default option, the more you can reject. 25. Modern portfolio theory is, in Munger's words, asinine. Most people will not find thousands of equally good things. They will find a few where one or two are far better than anything else they know. The right way to invest is to concentrate on your best opportunity cost, not to diversify into mediocrity because a model told you to. 26. Big opportunities must be seized, and seized big. Buffett says imagine you got a punch card with only twenty punches for your whole life, one per financial decision. You would think hard about each one, make fewer and better bets, and probably never use all twenty. The discipline of scarcity would make you rich. Dabbling in a bull market because it is easy is how people lose. 27. America has always been full of reasons to sell, and wrong every time. Coca-Cola went public in 1919 at $40, dropped to $19 within a year, and then faced the great depression, World War, and atomic bombs. One share reinvested is worth millions now. The country's opportunities have always won out over its problems. It is investors, not the economy, who tend to be their own worst enemy.
3:59:34

In 1998, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger spent 4 hours explaining why the smartest people in finance keep going broke. It might be the most valuable finance lecture ever recorded: 1. The smartest people in finance went completely broke. Long-term Capital Management had 16 people with possibly the highest average IQ of any firm in the country, 350 to 400 combined years of experience, and most of their own net worth in the fund. They still went bankrupt. Buffett said if he ever wrote a book it would be called why smart people do dumb things. 2. Life and markets have no relation to sigmas. Buffett keeps a 1901 newspaper on his office wall. Northern Pacific went from $170 to $1,000 a share in a single day when two buyers accidentally cornered the stock. A brewer who had shorted it, facing a margin call, dove into a vat of hot beer. That man probably understood sigmas and knew such a move was impossible. Buffett has never wanted to end up in the vat. 3. Beta and sigmas tell you nothing about the risk of going broke. the LTCM team relied on mathematics and believed a six- or seven-sigma event could not touch them. they were wrong. history does not tell you the probabilities of future financial events. the real risk is a permanent blind spot in something crucial, often caused by knowing a great deal about something else. 4. To a man with a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. Munger's explanation for why brilliant people do dumb things. They learn a set of mathematical techniques and then twist every problem to fit the solution they already know. Combine that with a poor grasp of history, and you get people with advanced degrees blowing themselves up. 5. To make money they did not need, they risked money they did need. That is just plain foolish, Buffett says, no matter your IQ. Hand him a gun with a million chambers and one bullet, offer any sum to put it to his temple and pull once, and he will not do it. there is nothing on the upside that justifies the downside. people do this financially all the time without thinking. 6. The major banks all had risk models and had no idea what they owned. they met weekly at risk committees, printed all the statistics in neat columns, and did not have the faintest idea what risk they were carrying. The rare and essential quality is someone who can contemplate perils that have not popped up yet, the ones no past model contains. 7. A chief risk officer often just makes you feel good while you do dumb things. munger compares him to the Delphic oracle who convinced the Persian king to attack. he has a PhD and does advanced math, but he tortures reality to defend a model that does not hold under extreme conditions. all that computation makes you feel like you clobbered the risk when you have only clobbered your own head. 8. The whole quant risk system just changed the shape of the curve and kept going. Munger notes the business schools "improved" by throwing away the Gaussian curve and drawing a different one. They talk about fat tails now, but they still have no idea how fat to make them. he and Buffett always knew the tails were there, and used to roll their eyes at the risk-control people at Salomon. 9. Never risk what you have and need for what you do not have and do not need. Buffett will not explain to his family, who hold most of their net worth in Berkshire, that they went broke on a 100-to-1 gamble. Their returns get penalized 99 years out of 100 by being too conservative, and in the hundredth year they survive when others do not. 10. Build the business so that if the world stops working tomorrow, you have no problem. Berkshire double-layers its protection. First, they behave so no rational person questions their credit, then they hold so much liquidity that if the world suddenly hated their credit, they would not notice for months. It gives up higher returns 99% of the time and survives the one time others do not. 11. The real danger is a risk that has never happened before. Buffett wants someone who can imagine perils that have not yet appeared, the ones no model contains. The major institutions all had models, and that inability to envision the unprecedented is exactly what proved fatal. He and Munger spend a lot of time thinking about things that could hit them out of the blue that others leave out entirely. 12. Investing is simple, but not easy. The framework is not complicated. you did not need a high IQ to buy junk bonds in 2002 or stocks at low multiples in 1974. you just needed the courage of your convictions and the willingness to act when everyone else was paralyzed. Following logic rather than emotion is obvious, and yet some people find it almost impossible. 13. You cannot get rich with a weathervane. Buffett and Munger pay no attention to predictions about the economy or the market. People love predictions, entire industries are built on them, but it is like the king hiring a forecaster to read sheep guts. They have never made or avoided a single business purchase because of a macro view. 14. Name one super-wealthy economist. Munger's challenge. All these economists with 160 IQs spend their lives studying markets, and you cannot find one who got rich buying securities. Even Keynes tried to predict the credit cycle, broke a couple of times, and only did well once he switched to buying good businesses cheap and concentrating. 15. Focus only on what is important and knowable. Some things are important but unknowable, like whether someone drops a nuclear weapon tomorrow. Some things are knowable but unimportant. You narrow your attention to the small set of things that are both important and knowable, and you ignore everything else. 16. The market is there to serve you, not to instruct you. This is Graham's chapter eight, and Buffett calls it enormously important. When people talk about momentum or charts, they are saying the market instructs you. It does not. It just quotes prices. When it does something silly, you get a chance to act. Otherwise you go play bridge and check again tomorrow. 17. You can make a decision in five minutes or not at all. Buffett and Munger act fast because they rule out enormous territory in advance. Munger blots out startups entirely, and half a dozen other filters, so what remains is small enough to judge instantly. If they cannot decide in five minutes, they will not learn enough in five months to make up for going in deficient. 18. You can make a lot of money on a Sunday. Buffett said the calls you get on a Sunday, when things are truly screwed up, are the ones you make money on. All you have to do is be the collie and not the caller. You never get in a position where the other party can call your tune, so you can always play out your hand. 19. You are not right because others agree with you. Ben Graham said you are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees. You are right because your facts and reasoning are right. Being contrarian has no special virtue over being a trend follower. All that matters is whether the facts are correct and the logic is sound. 20. Know where the edge of your circle of competence is. Buffett says the size of your circle does not matter. Knowing its perimeter does. You do not have to understand 90% of businesses. You just have to know something real about the few you actually put money into, and honestly recognize the ones you do not understand and walk away. 21. Intrinsic value is just the cash a business will produce, discounted back. Buffett thinks of every business as a bond with coupons that are not printed on it. Your job as an investor is to estimate those future coupons. If you cannot estimate them, like in a high-tech company, you pass. Investing is putting out money to get more back from what the asset produces, not from selling it to someone else. 22. The best businesses earn a royalty and need little capital. Coca-Cola sells a formula and takes a cut of every drink. Magazines like People operate on negative capital because subscribers pay in advance. The great businesses are the ones that can grow very large while needing almost no capital, which is why consumer businesses with pricing power are so valuable. 23. You only have to find one good idea, not twenty. Munger said you cannot find twenty deeply mispriced things, and Buffett agreed you do not need to. You do not have to have tons of good ideas in this business. You just need one good idea that is worth a ton, occasionally. For small sums, Buffett said he would have been 100% in Korea a few years earlier, where great companies traded at three times earnings. 24. The trick is measuring everything against your best opportunity. Munger calls this opportunity cost, the doctrine from the first page of the economics textbook that modern portfolio theory somehow ignored. Once you have found the best thing you understand, you measure every other option against it. The higher your default option, the more you can reject. 25. Modern portfolio theory is, in Munger's words, asinine. Most people will not find thousands of equally good things. They will find a few where one or two are far better than anything else they know. The right way to invest is to concentrate on your best opportunity cost, not to diversify into mediocrity because a model told you to. 26. Big opportunities must be seized, and seized big. Buffett says imagine you got a punch card with only twenty punches for your whole life, one per financial decision. You would think hard about each one, make fewer and better bets, and probably never use all twenty. The discipline of scarcity would make you rich. Dabbling in a bull market because it is easy is how people lose. 27. America has always been full of reasons to sell, and wrong every time. Coca-Cola went public in 1919 at $40, dropped to $19 within a year, and then faced the great depression, World War, and atomic bombs. One share reinvested is worth millions now. The country's opportunities have always won out over its problems. It is investors, not the economy, who tend to be their own worst enemy.

Jaynit

104,045 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Warren Buffett turns 93 today! To celebrate, I'm sharing the greatest lecture he ever gave together with his 94 (!) best investment quotes. 1. Rule No. 1 is never lose money. Rule No. 2 is never forget Rule No. 1. 2. Diversification is a protection against ignorance. It makes very little sense for those who know what they're doing. 3. Do not take yearly results too seriously. Instead, focus on four or five-year averages. 4. All there is to investing is picking good stocks at good times and staying with them as long as they remain good companies. 5. American business - and consequently a basket of stocks - is virtually certain to be worth far more in the years ahead. 6. An investor should act as though he had a lifetime decision card with just twenty punches on it. 7. And so the important thing we do with managers, generally, is to find the .400 hitters and then not tell them how to swing. 8. The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect. You need a temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd or against the crowd. 9. Bitcoin has no unique value at all. 10. Buy a stock the way you would buy a house. Understand and like it such that you'd be content to own it in the absence of any market. 11. The years ahead will occasionally deliver major market declines - even panics - that will affect virtually all stocks. No one can tell you when these traumas will occur. 12. I insist on a lot of time being spent, almost every day, to just sit and think. That is very uncommon in American business. 13. Buy companies with strong histories of profitability and with a dominant business franchise. 14. For the investor, a too-high purchase price for the stock of an excellent company can undo the effects of a subsequent decade of favorable business developments. 15. I believe in giving my kids enough so they can do anything, but not so much that they can do nothing. 16. The world went mad. What we learn from history is that people don’t learn from history. 17. The key to investing is not assessing how much an industry is going to affect society, or how much it will grow, but rather determining the competitive advantage of any given company and, above all, the durability of that advantage. 18. Among the various propositions offered to you, if you invested in a very low cost index fund - where you don't put the money in at one time, but average in over 10 years - you'll do better than 90% of people who start investing at the same time. 19. Because if you're wrong and rates go to 2 percent, which I don't think they will, you pay it off. It's a one-way renegotiation. It is an incredibly attractive instrument for the homeowner and you've got a one-way bet. 20. Cash is to a business as oxygen is to an individual: never thought about when it is present, the only thing in mind when it is absent. 21. Don't get caught up with what other people are doing. Being a contrarian isn't the key but being a crowd follower isn't either. You need to detach yourself emotionally. 22. For 240 years it's been a terrible mistake to bet against America, and now is no time to start. 23. I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years. 24. I have no views as to where it (gold) will be, but the one thing I can tell you is it won't do anything between now and then except look at you. Whereas, you know, Coca-Cola will be making money, and I think Wells Fargo will be making a lot of money, and there will be a lot -- and it's a lot -- it's a lot better to have a goose that keeps laying eggs than a goose that just sits there and eats insurance and storage and a few things like that. 25. I just sit in my office and read all day. 26. I won't say if my candidate doesn't win, and probably half the time they haven't, I'm going to take my ball and go home 27. If returns are going to be 7 or 8 percent and you're paying 1 percent for fees, that makes an enormous difference in how much money you're going to have in retirement. 28. We want products where people feel like kissing you instead of slapping you. 29. If you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes. 30. The most important investment you can make is one in yourself. 31. If you buy things you do not need, soon you will have to sell things you need. 32. If you don't feel comfortable making a rough estimate of the asset's future earnings, just forget it and move on. 33. If you like spending six to eight hours per week working on investments, do it. If you don't, then dollar-cost average into index funds. 34. If you're in the luckiest 1% of humanity, you owe it to the rest of humanity to think about the other 99%. 35. If you're smart, you're going to make a lot of money without borrowing. 36. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497. 37. In the 54 years (Charlie Munger and I) have worked together, we have never forgone an attractive purchase because of the macro or political environment, or the views of other people. In fact, these subjects never come up when we make decisions 38. In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield. 39. Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. 40. It is a terrible mistake for investors with long-term horizons to measure their investment 'risk' by their portfolio's ratio of bonds to stocks. 41. It is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results. 42. It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you'll do things differently. 43. The one thing I will tell you is the worst investment you can have is cash. Everybody is talking about cash being king and all that sort of thing. Cash is going to become worth less over time. But good businesses are going to become worth more over time. 44. It's been an ideal period for investors: A climate of fear is their best friend. Those who invest only when commentators are upbeat end up paying a heavy price for meaningless reassurance. 45. It's better to hang out with people better than you. Pick out associates whose behavior is better than yours and you'll drift in that direction. 46. It's better to have a partial interest in the Hope diamond than to own all of a rhinestone. 47. It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price. 48. Just pick a broad index like the S&P 500. Don't put your money in all at once; do it over a period of time. 49. Keep things simple and don't swing for the fences. When promised quick profits, respond with a quick "no”. 50. Lose money for the firm, and I will be understanding. Lose a shred of reputation for the firm, and I will be ruthless. 51. Many management teams are just deciding they're gonna buy X billions over X months. That's no way to buy things. You buy when selling for less than they are worth. ... It's not a complicated equation to figure out whether it is beneficial or not to repurchase shares. 52. The difference between successful people and really successful people is that really successful people say no to almost everything. 53. Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can't buy what is popular and do well. 54. Never invest in a business you cannot understand. 55. Your premium brand had better be delivering something special, or it’s not going to get the business. 56. One can best prepare themselves for the economic future by investing in your own education. If you study hard and learn at a young age, you will be in the best circumstances to secure your future. 57. The most important thing to do if you find yourself in a hole is to stop digging. 58. One thing that could help would be to write down the reason you are buying a stock before your purchase. Write down "I am buying Microsoft at $300 billion because..." Force yourself to write this down. It clarifies your mind and discipline. 59. Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked. 60. Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble. 61. Price is what you pay. Value is what you get. 62. Read 500 pages like this every day. That's how knowledge works. It builds up, like compound interest. All of you can do it, but I guarantee not many of you will do it. 63. Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing. 64. If a business does well, the stock eventually follows. 65. Since I know of no way to reliably predict market movements, I recommend that you purchase Berkshire shares only if you expect to hold them for at least five years. Those who seek short-term profits should look elsewhere. 66. Someone's sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago 67. The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble... We want to buy them when they're on the operating table. 68. Speculation is most dangerous when it looks easiest. 69. Stay away from it. It's a mirage, basically...The idea that it has some huge intrinsic value is a joke in my view. 70. The best chance to deploy capital is when things are going down. 71. The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don't have to swing at everything -- you can wait for your pitch. 72. There is nothing wrong with a 'know nothing' investor who realizes it. The problem is when you are a 'know nothing' investor but you think you know something. 73. This does not bother Charlie and me. Indeed, we enjoy such price declines if we have funds available to increase our positions. 74. Too-big-to-fail is not a fallback position at Berkshire. Instead, we will always arrange our affairs so that any requirements for cash we may conceivably have will be dwarfed by our own liquidity. 75. There are all kinds of businesses that Charlie and I don’t understand, but that doesn’t cause us to stay up at night. It just means we go on to the next one, and that’s what the individual investor should do. 76. You can’t buy what is popular and do well. 77. We never want to count on the kindness of strangers in order to meet tomorrow's obligations. When forced to choose, I will not trade even a night's sleep for the chance of extra profits. 78. We will reject interesting opportunities rather than over-leverage our balance sheet. 79. We've long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good. Even now, Charlie and I continue to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children. 80. What is smart at one price is stupid at another. 81. What we learn from history is that people don't learn from history. 82. When stock can be bought below a business's value it is probably the best use of cash. 83. When trillions of dollars are managed by Wall Streeters charging high fees, it will usually be the managers who reap outsized profits, not the clients. 84. When we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever. 85. When you have able managers of high character running businesses about which they are passionate, you can have a dozen or more reporting to you and still have time for an afternoon nap. Conversely, if you have even one person reporting to you who is deceitful, inept or uninterested, you will find yourself with more than you can handle. 86. Whether we're talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down. 87. Widespread fear is your friend as an investor because it serves up bargain purchases. 88. You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you. You are right because your data and reasoning are right. 89. You can't borrow money at 18 or 20 percent and come out ahead. 90. You can't produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant. 91. The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect… You need a temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd or against the crowd. 92. You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with 130 IQ. You only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence. 93. The size of your circle of competence is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital.
1:12:41

Warren Buffett turns 93 today! To celebrate, I'm sharing the greatest lecture he ever gave together with his 94 (!) best investment quotes. 1. Rule No. 1 is never lose money. Rule No. 2 is never forget Rule No. 1. 2. Diversification is a protection against ignorance. It makes very little sense for those who know what they're doing. 3. Do not take yearly results too seriously. Instead, focus on four or five-year averages. 4. All there is to investing is picking good stocks at good times and staying with them as long as they remain good companies. 5. American business - and consequently a basket of stocks - is virtually certain to be worth far more in the years ahead. 6. An investor should act as though he had a lifetime decision card with just twenty punches on it. 7. And so the important thing we do with managers, generally, is to find the .400 hitters and then not tell them how to swing. 8. The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect. You need a temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd or against the crowd. 9. Bitcoin has no unique value at all. 10. Buy a stock the way you would buy a house. Understand and like it such that you'd be content to own it in the absence of any market. 11. The years ahead will occasionally deliver major market declines - even panics - that will affect virtually all stocks. No one can tell you when these traumas will occur. 12. I insist on a lot of time being spent, almost every day, to just sit and think. That is very uncommon in American business. 13. Buy companies with strong histories of profitability and with a dominant business franchise. 14. For the investor, a too-high purchase price for the stock of an excellent company can undo the effects of a subsequent decade of favorable business developments. 15. I believe in giving my kids enough so they can do anything, but not so much that they can do nothing. 16. The world went mad. What we learn from history is that people don’t learn from history. 17. The key to investing is not assessing how much an industry is going to affect society, or how much it will grow, but rather determining the competitive advantage of any given company and, above all, the durability of that advantage. 18. Among the various propositions offered to you, if you invested in a very low cost index fund - where you don't put the money in at one time, but average in over 10 years - you'll do better than 90% of people who start investing at the same time. 19. Because if you're wrong and rates go to 2 percent, which I don't think they will, you pay it off. It's a one-way renegotiation. It is an incredibly attractive instrument for the homeowner and you've got a one-way bet. 20. Cash is to a business as oxygen is to an individual: never thought about when it is present, the only thing in mind when it is absent. 21. Don't get caught up with what other people are doing. Being a contrarian isn't the key but being a crowd follower isn't either. You need to detach yourself emotionally. 22. For 240 years it's been a terrible mistake to bet against America, and now is no time to start. 23. I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years. 24. I have no views as to where it (gold) will be, but the one thing I can tell you is it won't do anything between now and then except look at you. Whereas, you know, Coca-Cola will be making money, and I think Wells Fargo will be making a lot of money, and there will be a lot -- and it's a lot -- it's a lot better to have a goose that keeps laying eggs than a goose that just sits there and eats insurance and storage and a few things like that. 25. I just sit in my office and read all day. 26. I won't say if my candidate doesn't win, and probably half the time they haven't, I'm going to take my ball and go home 27. If returns are going to be 7 or 8 percent and you're paying 1 percent for fees, that makes an enormous difference in how much money you're going to have in retirement. 28. We want products where people feel like kissing you instead of slapping you. 29. If you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes. 30. The most important investment you can make is one in yourself. 31. If you buy things you do not need, soon you will have to sell things you need. 32. If you don't feel comfortable making a rough estimate of the asset's future earnings, just forget it and move on. 33. If you like spending six to eight hours per week working on investments, do it. If you don't, then dollar-cost average into index funds. 34. If you're in the luckiest 1% of humanity, you owe it to the rest of humanity to think about the other 99%. 35. If you're smart, you're going to make a lot of money without borrowing. 36. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497. 37. In the 54 years (Charlie Munger and I) have worked together, we have never forgone an attractive purchase because of the macro or political environment, or the views of other people. In fact, these subjects never come up when we make decisions 38. In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield. 39. Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. 40. It is a terrible mistake for investors with long-term horizons to measure their investment 'risk' by their portfolio's ratio of bonds to stocks. 41. It is not necessary to do extraordinary things to get extraordinary results. 42. It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you'll do things differently. 43. The one thing I will tell you is the worst investment you can have is cash. Everybody is talking about cash being king and all that sort of thing. Cash is going to become worth less over time. But good businesses are going to become worth more over time. 44. It's been an ideal period for investors: A climate of fear is their best friend. Those who invest only when commentators are upbeat end up paying a heavy price for meaningless reassurance. 45. It's better to hang out with people better than you. Pick out associates whose behavior is better than yours and you'll drift in that direction. 46. It's better to have a partial interest in the Hope diamond than to own all of a rhinestone. 47. It's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price. 48. Just pick a broad index like the S&P 500. Don't put your money in all at once; do it over a period of time. 49. Keep things simple and don't swing for the fences. When promised quick profits, respond with a quick "no”. 50. Lose money for the firm, and I will be understanding. Lose a shred of reputation for the firm, and I will be ruthless. 51. Many management teams are just deciding they're gonna buy X billions over X months. That's no way to buy things. You buy when selling for less than they are worth. ... It's not a complicated equation to figure out whether it is beneficial or not to repurchase shares. 52. The difference between successful people and really successful people is that really successful people say no to almost everything. 53. Most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can't buy what is popular and do well. 54. Never invest in a business you cannot understand. 55. Your premium brand had better be delivering something special, or it’s not going to get the business. 56. One can best prepare themselves for the economic future by investing in your own education. If you study hard and learn at a young age, you will be in the best circumstances to secure your future. 57. The most important thing to do if you find yourself in a hole is to stop digging. 58. One thing that could help would be to write down the reason you are buying a stock before your purchase. Write down "I am buying Microsoft at $300 billion because..." Force yourself to write this down. It clarifies your mind and discipline. 59. Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked. 60. Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble. 61. Price is what you pay. Value is what you get. 62. Read 500 pages like this every day. That's how knowledge works. It builds up, like compound interest. All of you can do it, but I guarantee not many of you will do it. 63. Risk comes from not knowing what you're doing. 64. If a business does well, the stock eventually follows. 65. Since I know of no way to reliably predict market movements, I recommend that you purchase Berkshire shares only if you expect to hold them for at least five years. Those who seek short-term profits should look elsewhere. 66. Someone's sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago 67. The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble... We want to buy them when they're on the operating table. 68. Speculation is most dangerous when it looks easiest. 69. Stay away from it. It's a mirage, basically...The idea that it has some huge intrinsic value is a joke in my view. 70. The best chance to deploy capital is when things are going down. 71. The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don't have to swing at everything -- you can wait for your pitch. 72. There is nothing wrong with a 'know nothing' investor who realizes it. The problem is when you are a 'know nothing' investor but you think you know something. 73. This does not bother Charlie and me. Indeed, we enjoy such price declines if we have funds available to increase our positions. 74. Too-big-to-fail is not a fallback position at Berkshire. Instead, we will always arrange our affairs so that any requirements for cash we may conceivably have will be dwarfed by our own liquidity. 75. There are all kinds of businesses that Charlie and I don’t understand, but that doesn’t cause us to stay up at night. It just means we go on to the next one, and that’s what the individual investor should do. 76. You can’t buy what is popular and do well. 77. We never want to count on the kindness of strangers in order to meet tomorrow's obligations. When forced to choose, I will not trade even a night's sleep for the chance of extra profits. 78. We will reject interesting opportunities rather than over-leverage our balance sheet. 79. We've long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good. Even now, Charlie and I continue to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children. 80. What is smart at one price is stupid at another. 81. What we learn from history is that people don't learn from history. 82. When stock can be bought below a business's value it is probably the best use of cash. 83. When trillions of dollars are managed by Wall Streeters charging high fees, it will usually be the managers who reap outsized profits, not the clients. 84. When we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favorite holding period is forever. 85. When you have able managers of high character running businesses about which they are passionate, you can have a dozen or more reporting to you and still have time for an afternoon nap. Conversely, if you have even one person reporting to you who is deceitful, inept or uninterested, you will find yourself with more than you can handle. 86. Whether we're talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down. 87. Widespread fear is your friend as an investor because it serves up bargain purchases. 88. You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you. You are right because your data and reasoning are right. 89. You can't borrow money at 18 or 20 percent and come out ahead. 90. You can't produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant. 91. The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect… You need a temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd or against the crowd. 92. You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with 130 IQ. You only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence. 93. The size of your circle of competence is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital.

Compounding Quality

621,113 görüntüleme • 3 yıl önce

I've never heard Elon Musk be so bullish on Tesla ⚡️ here's my video analysis of the $TSLA Q4 2024 earnings call: -Robotaxi launch in Austin, June 2025 -California & other states launch robotaxi late 2025 -Cybercab in 2026 -Optimus V1 in 2025, 1K/month production line -Optimus V2 in 2026, 10K/month production line -2026 good year for Tesla, 2027/28 insanely good & more!! Timestamps- 0:00 Intro 0:44 Elon Opening Remarks 13:29 SAY Retail Questions 22:37 Analyst Questions 25:04 Gali Final Thoughts/Rant also here are my notes I typed during the conference call if you're interested! (may be errors) Tesla Q4 2024 Earnings Call Notes INTRO- ELON OPENING REMARKS -Q4 set record, delivered cars at rate of almost 2M cars/year -Model Y best-selling vehicle of any kind on earth (elon focused and talking quickly) -10Xing on autonomy, not doubling -many investments made this year that will bear immense fruit in the future, for AI -see a path for Tesla to the worlds most valuable company by far, worth more than the next 5 companies combined, difficult but achievable path -overwhelmingly due to autonomous vehicles and autonomous robots -setting up for an epic 2026, and ridiculously good 2027 and 2028 -meeting FSD now is like meeting a toddler -human intuition is linear, we’re seeing exponential progress -#1 recommendation is try it -typical passenger car has 10 hours of use out of 168, when its autonomous, itll be used for 55 hours a week … can deliver packages in the middle of thenight, or supply restaurants, all hours of the day or night. 5X increase in utility -more on self driving, continued improvements in safety numbers, much safer to use FSD -V14 will be another big step from V13 -launched CORTEX training cluster at Giga Austin, big step for FSD, continue to invest in training needs -Optimus training needs are about 10X what’s needed for the car -cost of training is dropping dramatically over time -Optimus has potential to be north of $10T in revenue, can put a lot training compute into that situation, even pumping $500B into it would be a good deal -future very different from the past, incredible inflection point in human history -proof is in the pudding -launching in June this year in Austin, already have cars moving autonomously in Fremont, thousands of cars per day driving, soon in Austin then elsewhere in the world -toe in the water at first to make sure everything is cool, but we have a general solution for autonomy , then put a few more toes, then a foot. Safety of the general public and those in the car as the top priority -with regard to Optimus, making insane revenue projections that sound insane, i realize that. But i think they will prove to be accurate -several thousand bots made this year, they will be doing useful things by the end of this year, im confidence, production design one at the tesla factories, then will learn for production design two -ramp optimus production faster than anything has ever launched, doesn’t take very many years before we’er making 100M of these things per year , 500% growth per year -tried using all these suppliers to get it to build Optimus, but nothing worked, had to build it internally from first principles, the hand is increibdle -long term Optimus will be the value of the company -back to Energy,/earth, -energy storage is a big deal, becoming more important, enables far greater energy output to the grid than is currently possible. -grid has no storage, designed for peak storage, lots of waste -once you have grid energy storage, the potential of the grid is unlocked, at least double -this will drive demand of battery packs as to as much as we can possibly make -shanghai factory starting operation, starting another factory -cant shoot our selves in the foot, battery capacity can only go into storage or mobility, so always making that tradeoff -demand for total Gigawatt hours for batteries, transportation or stationary will grow in a very big way over time 2025 a pivotal year for tesla, launch of full self driving, biggest year in tesla history, maybe even bigger than first car or model s, 3 or y … probably most important year in tesla’s history I don’t even know who is in 2nd place in real world AI, would need a telescope to see them SAY QUESTIONS -FSD Unsupervised launched in California this year as well -most likely release it in many regions of the US by the end of this year -40K people day everyday no mention, some scrapes a shin with autonomous car its headlines news -need to use insane amounts of caution -discussions about licensing FSD? Yes -best way to know to work with us, bbuy a car and take it apart -only worth very high volume cars/production partners -tesla engineering very focused on getting it to roll out for tesla first -soon will be obvious that if you don’t have FSD you’re dead as an OEM -is Optimus design locked? -Optimus is not design locked, constantly iterating, best robotics engineers in the world, and other ingredients, battery pack, charging, great electronics, great communications, great connectivity, real world AI, then you need to scale that production to real world levels -prototypes are easy production is hard -thijs year close loop with using optimus internally at tesla, would could obviously use a few thousand robots for the most boring annoying tasks at the company -with production version 2, launches sometime next year, would like beginning, might be middle though, -production line will be doing 10K units per month capacity for v2, first line designing is for roughly 1,000 units per month, then next line will be for 100,000 units per month -could start delivering them late next year, will go so fast, will ramp like crazy, demand will not be a problem, even at a high price, once were above 1M units per year, production costs of optimus will be less than $20,000 -if you compare complexity of optimus to complexity of a car, its much less than a car -price of optimus will be set buy market demand -Semi ramping next year, TCO no brainer, like optimus, will be massive demand, will meaningfully contribute to tesla’s revenue at scale -tesla semi with autonomy, is incredibly valuable -we actually have a shortage of truck drivers here in the US -will HW3 owners need a hardware update, got 12.6 which is like a baby v13, have’t given up on it, releases will trail HW4 releases … “honest answer” is were going to have to upgrade for those who have bought full self driving, will be painful and difficult and we’ll get it done “Happy not many people bought FSD” -solar roof, given up on ramping it? -lots of customer interest despite premium, making easier to install, focused on growth through certified installers, many been installing for many years -supply product to the roofing industry -it’s a premium product like S/X -combined with Tesla powerwall you can be self sufficient for several days ANALYST QUETIONS -robotaxis in Austin and several other cities this year, and next year all over america -america innovates, europe regulates, to release FSD in europe, have to go through massive paperwork through netherlands, then presents to EU in may, some big country committee, nothing we can do to make it happen sooner. -can’t do training in china with video training, publicly available videos in china are being run through the tesla system to be used for training, bus lanes are complicated and a big challenge -tesla can keep manufacturing even if geopolitical tensions rise to very high levels -Pierre question on June in Austin, -can i try unsupervised myself, or will it be the Tesla fleet? -it will be the Tesla fleet testing it, that’s the toe in the water, scrutinizing everything -autonomous ride hailing for money in june -probably next year for you to put your car on network -trump removing EV incentives? -all transport will go electric, can’t be stopped, even planes, will be like stopping the steam engine or combustion engine -only thing holding back EVs was range, and thats a solved problem -right now solving battery production, not demand, big battery retooling for model y coming up, short term impact on output
33:55

I've never heard Elon Musk be so bullish on Tesla ⚡️ here's my video analysis of the $TSLA Q4 2024 earnings call: -Robotaxi launch in Austin, June 2025 -California & other states launch robotaxi late 2025 -Cybercab in 2026 -Optimus V1 in 2025, 1K/month production line -Optimus V2 in 2026, 10K/month production line -2026 good year for Tesla, 2027/28 insanely good & more!! Timestamps- 0:00 Intro 0:44 Elon Opening Remarks 13:29 SAY Retail Questions 22:37 Analyst Questions 25:04 Gali Final Thoughts/Rant also here are my notes I typed during the conference call if you're interested! (may be errors) Tesla Q4 2024 Earnings Call Notes INTRO- ELON OPENING REMARKS -Q4 set record, delivered cars at rate of almost 2M cars/year -Model Y best-selling vehicle of any kind on earth (elon focused and talking quickly) -10Xing on autonomy, not doubling -many investments made this year that will bear immense fruit in the future, for AI -see a path for Tesla to the worlds most valuable company by far, worth more than the next 5 companies combined, difficult but achievable path -overwhelmingly due to autonomous vehicles and autonomous robots -setting up for an epic 2026, and ridiculously good 2027 and 2028 -meeting FSD now is like meeting a toddler -human intuition is linear, we’re seeing exponential progress -#1 recommendation is try it -typical passenger car has 10 hours of use out of 168, when its autonomous, itll be used for 55 hours a week … can deliver packages in the middle of thenight, or supply restaurants, all hours of the day or night. 5X increase in utility -more on self driving, continued improvements in safety numbers, much safer to use FSD -V14 will be another big step from V13 -launched CORTEX training cluster at Giga Austin, big step for FSD, continue to invest in training needs -Optimus training needs are about 10X what’s needed for the car -cost of training is dropping dramatically over time -Optimus has potential to be north of $10T in revenue, can put a lot training compute into that situation, even pumping $500B into it would be a good deal -future very different from the past, incredible inflection point in human history -proof is in the pudding -launching in June this year in Austin, already have cars moving autonomously in Fremont, thousands of cars per day driving, soon in Austin then elsewhere in the world -toe in the water at first to make sure everything is cool, but we have a general solution for autonomy , then put a few more toes, then a foot. Safety of the general public and those in the car as the top priority -with regard to Optimus, making insane revenue projections that sound insane, i realize that. But i think they will prove to be accurate -several thousand bots made this year, they will be doing useful things by the end of this year, im confidence, production design one at the tesla factories, then will learn for production design two -ramp optimus production faster than anything has ever launched, doesn’t take very many years before we’er making 100M of these things per year , 500% growth per year -tried using all these suppliers to get it to build Optimus, but nothing worked, had to build it internally from first principles, the hand is increibdle -long term Optimus will be the value of the company -back to Energy,/earth, -energy storage is a big deal, becoming more important, enables far greater energy output to the grid than is currently possible. -grid has no storage, designed for peak storage, lots of waste -once you have grid energy storage, the potential of the grid is unlocked, at least double -this will drive demand of battery packs as to as much as we can possibly make -shanghai factory starting operation, starting another factory -cant shoot our selves in the foot, battery capacity can only go into storage or mobility, so always making that tradeoff -demand for total Gigawatt hours for batteries, transportation or stationary will grow in a very big way over time 2025 a pivotal year for tesla, launch of full self driving, biggest year in tesla history, maybe even bigger than first car or model s, 3 or y … probably most important year in tesla’s history I don’t even know who is in 2nd place in real world AI, would need a telescope to see them SAY QUESTIONS -FSD Unsupervised launched in California this year as well -most likely release it in many regions of the US by the end of this year -40K people day everyday no mention, some scrapes a shin with autonomous car its headlines news -need to use insane amounts of caution -discussions about licensing FSD? Yes -best way to know to work with us, bbuy a car and take it apart -only worth very high volume cars/production partners -tesla engineering very focused on getting it to roll out for tesla first -soon will be obvious that if you don’t have FSD you’re dead as an OEM -is Optimus design locked? -Optimus is not design locked, constantly iterating, best robotics engineers in the world, and other ingredients, battery pack, charging, great electronics, great communications, great connectivity, real world AI, then you need to scale that production to real world levels -prototypes are easy production is hard -thijs year close loop with using optimus internally at tesla, would could obviously use a few thousand robots for the most boring annoying tasks at the company -with production version 2, launches sometime next year, would like beginning, might be middle though, -production line will be doing 10K units per month capacity for v2, first line designing is for roughly 1,000 units per month, then next line will be for 100,000 units per month -could start delivering them late next year, will go so fast, will ramp like crazy, demand will not be a problem, even at a high price, once were above 1M units per year, production costs of optimus will be less than $20,000 -if you compare complexity of optimus to complexity of a car, its much less than a car -price of optimus will be set buy market demand -Semi ramping next year, TCO no brainer, like optimus, will be massive demand, will meaningfully contribute to tesla’s revenue at scale -tesla semi with autonomy, is incredibly valuable -we actually have a shortage of truck drivers here in the US -will HW3 owners need a hardware update, got 12.6 which is like a baby v13, have’t given up on it, releases will trail HW4 releases … “honest answer” is were going to have to upgrade for those who have bought full self driving, will be painful and difficult and we’ll get it done “Happy not many people bought FSD” -solar roof, given up on ramping it? -lots of customer interest despite premium, making easier to install, focused on growth through certified installers, many been installing for many years -supply product to the roofing industry -it’s a premium product like S/X -combined with Tesla powerwall you can be self sufficient for several days ANALYST QUETIONS -robotaxis in Austin and several other cities this year, and next year all over america -america innovates, europe regulates, to release FSD in europe, have to go through massive paperwork through netherlands, then presents to EU in may, some big country committee, nothing we can do to make it happen sooner. -can’t do training in china with video training, publicly available videos in china are being run through the tesla system to be used for training, bus lanes are complicated and a big challenge -tesla can keep manufacturing even if geopolitical tensions rise to very high levels -Pierre question on June in Austin, -can i try unsupervised myself, or will it be the Tesla fleet? -it will be the Tesla fleet testing it, that’s the toe in the water, scrutinizing everything -autonomous ride hailing for money in june -probably next year for you to put your car on network -trump removing EV incentives? -all transport will go electric, can’t be stopped, even planes, will be like stopping the steam engine or combustion engine -only thing holding back EVs was range, and thats a solved problem -right now solving battery production, not demand, big battery retooling for model y coming up, short term impact on output

Gali

79,178 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

If you watch this ~50 minute screen recording closely (yeah, I know, it's long; there are also some times when my computer was very slow and laggy, just skip past that part. And at one point I had to run and get my 9-month-old a new bottle and left it on a boring screen, sorry!), I believe you can see real signs of the kind of runaway, recursive AI self-improvement that people have been warning of for a while (Mr. Kurzweil most notably and prophetically). Why do I say that? What's different now? Well, there's a reason my set of agent coding tooling is called the Flywheel. These tools all mutually self-reinforce each other. And they all flow directly into my ntm tool (short for "named_tmux_manager"), which acts as a sort of integration point and nerve center for the tools (this is becoming more true by the minute as I'm now seriously working on ntm). Now, ntm was something I started making to automate some aspects of my workflow, but it was the kind of thing where, until it was perfect, it sort of just slowed me down. So I didn't actually use it even though I kept working on it and trying to improve it, and suggested to users that they try it in my tutorials. Well anyway, I finally got around to "dogfooding" ntm last night, and now it's going to get very dramatically better at an alarming rate. Some of that is from applying my "idea wizard" prompt to generate more useful features and building that stuff out and addressing obvious pain points I encountered during my newfound usage of the tool. But a lot comes from my realization that, once again, ntm's true utility is not as a tool for ME, but for an agent. That is, ntm lets one instance of Claude Code or Codex act as, well, me, do the things that I had been doing manually. Do I wish I had started using ntm earlier? No, for two big reasons: 1) Doing it manually helped me build up my intuition massively, which directly led me down the path of creating useful prompt strategies and workflows; these often began as ad-hoc prompts that I realized could be generalized and made more versatile/universal. Lesson: don't prematurely automate until you have an intimate, intuitive feel for your "core value-add loop." Otherwise you'll have a fully automated system quickly that efficiently and automatically does a stupid or otherwise sub-optimal thing. 2) My eyes have been opened to the beauty and power of Skills. I'm not talking about your garden-variety skills that are just a simple markdown file. I'm talking about true tour-de-force directories of perfectly structured and organized files that are filled with good information, insights, workflows, etc., but presented in a way that is highly optimized for consumption by AI agents, with extreme attention paid to things like perfect progressive disclosure, token density, agent-ergonomics, agent-intuitiveness, etc. And also Skills that go way beyond markdown files, with full integration into Claude Code where it makes sense via hooks, sub-agents, and even Python scripts. These kinds of skills are a qualitative difference in expressive power and usefulness and a total game changer. They are also effectively composable, creating almost an algebra of skills that let you use them together in powerful ways. I'm working on a subscription service website and CLI tool now to share what I've learned here most effectively, stay tuned for that in the coming days. Anyway, I now know what to make and how to make it. So, getting back to that screen recording, what does it show that makes me claim recursive self-improvement is here? If you keep your eye on the upper left tmux pane, that's the "controller" agent. It is using ntm to control all the other panes which are also running Claude Code (but ntm fully supports other agent types like Codex and Gemini-CLI, and it's trivially easy to mix and match them if you wanted to have, say, 8 CCs and 6 Codexes for writing the code and 3 Gemini-CLIs for reviewing code.) Now, there's nothing that crazy about this much so far. But where it starts to get very cool is that as the session continues and we encounter real-world problems, things like my ridiculously overloaded computer that keeps hanging for long periods, Claude Code instances that crash and get into a frozen, unresponsive state, it can learn from that. And you can see it using my skill writing skill to refine its ntm vibe coding skill in real time. And then take that skill and refine it to be more intuitive for itself. Or use my cass tool skill to search all the session histories to look for problems that came up and strategize how to solve them. The most useful part was when, towards the end of the session, I told it to reflect on all the things we had done and problems we encountered. One way it can usefully leverage those reflections is by improving its ntm vibe coding skill to make it cover more edge cases and exigencies. But the other, more fundamental, way is for it to conceive of and design the optimal new features and functionality for ntm itself so that the tool embodies those lessons in a first-class way. This offloads cognition from its brain onto its tooling, just like how a person can lean on spellcheck or a calculator. It codifies correct, effective reasoning at the tool level, where it's more reliable and robust and repeatable. And btw, did you notice what code base it was working on the whole time? It was none other than ntm itself! So as it worked on its own tool, it had reflections and ideas about how to further improve the tool. Now, it could have just as easily gotten those insights and ideas while using ntm to work on a different project, but the fact that it was working on itself is almost gloriously meta and recursive. So by the end, after learning from tending to a big group of agent workers (btw, I have previously emphasized doing everything in a really distributed/decentralized way, where each fungible agent gets identical marching orders that tell it to use my bv tool to find the optimal bead to work on. This does work very well, but occasionally results in some contention and overlap from thundering herd, or at least wastes time/tokens/communication in avoiding that before the agents waste time duplicating work. But in this new ntm-oriented workflow, I was able to have the controller agent in the upper left use bv itself and then optimally parcel out the instructions to each agent so that we could know for sure that there's no overlap), I ended up with a ton of new beads for new features, which I had it optimize and polish a few times. Now I can swap to a new Claude Max account and have the swarm implement all those new features! It should only take a couple passes like the one shown in the screen recording to get everything implemented. Then we can rinse and repeat, having the agent read through the full session histories of each agent and its experience from its own session in sending ntm commands and seeing how they worked out in practice, to come up with the next batch of changes to both its ntm vibe coding skill AND to the ntm tool itself. Do you see how rapidly this turns into Skynet? My mistake earlier was in focusing on making myself a "faster horse" as Henry Ford used to joke about customers wanting before he showed them what they should really want (a Model T). That is, something that would make my experience nicer while doing this agent swarm based development workflow. But the obvious lesson is that you should make all your tooling agent-first because the agents are just better at this stuff. You can still watch, and of course I did add a ridiculous number of very nice human-centric features to ntm that you'll be seeing in the next day or two, but those are really kind of "for fun" to make us humans feel better about the process. All the real value-add is happening "by agents, for agents." PS: Towards the end, you can see me switch to my Mac and tell Claude to improve the skill that I made earlier today for taking the mkv screen recording files from OBS Studio and muxing them into MP4 files for sharing, while downloading songs from YouTube to serve as the background music. I made it so it can also grab the thumbnails and generate little song credit cards that show up in the lower right corner. This worked perfectly the first time! I'll include some screenshots in a response post showing how that worked, but it was awesome to witness. Skills are POWERFUL. I'll also post a link to this video on YouTube if you prefer to watch it there.
51:48

If you watch this ~50 minute screen recording closely (yeah, I know, it's long; there are also some times when my computer was very slow and laggy, just skip past that part. And at one point I had to run and get my 9-month-old a new bottle and left it on a boring screen, sorry!), I believe you can see real signs of the kind of runaway, recursive AI self-improvement that people have been warning of for a while (Mr. Kurzweil most notably and prophetically). Why do I say that? What's different now? Well, there's a reason my set of agent coding tooling is called the Flywheel. These tools all mutually self-reinforce each other. And they all flow directly into my ntm tool (short for "named_tmux_manager"), which acts as a sort of integration point and nerve center for the tools (this is becoming more true by the minute as I'm now seriously working on ntm). Now, ntm was something I started making to automate some aspects of my workflow, but it was the kind of thing where, until it was perfect, it sort of just slowed me down. So I didn't actually use it even though I kept working on it and trying to improve it, and suggested to users that they try it in my tutorials. Well anyway, I finally got around to "dogfooding" ntm last night, and now it's going to get very dramatically better at an alarming rate. Some of that is from applying my "idea wizard" prompt to generate more useful features and building that stuff out and addressing obvious pain points I encountered during my newfound usage of the tool. But a lot comes from my realization that, once again, ntm's true utility is not as a tool for ME, but for an agent. That is, ntm lets one instance of Claude Code or Codex act as, well, me, do the things that I had been doing manually. Do I wish I had started using ntm earlier? No, for two big reasons: 1) Doing it manually helped me build up my intuition massively, which directly led me down the path of creating useful prompt strategies and workflows; these often began as ad-hoc prompts that I realized could be generalized and made more versatile/universal. Lesson: don't prematurely automate until you have an intimate, intuitive feel for your "core value-add loop." Otherwise you'll have a fully automated system quickly that efficiently and automatically does a stupid or otherwise sub-optimal thing. 2) My eyes have been opened to the beauty and power of Skills. I'm not talking about your garden-variety skills that are just a simple markdown file. I'm talking about true tour-de-force directories of perfectly structured and organized files that are filled with good information, insights, workflows, etc., but presented in a way that is highly optimized for consumption by AI agents, with extreme attention paid to things like perfect progressive disclosure, token density, agent-ergonomics, agent-intuitiveness, etc. And also Skills that go way beyond markdown files, with full integration into Claude Code where it makes sense via hooks, sub-agents, and even Python scripts. These kinds of skills are a qualitative difference in expressive power and usefulness and a total game changer. They are also effectively composable, creating almost an algebra of skills that let you use them together in powerful ways. I'm working on a subscription service website and CLI tool now to share what I've learned here most effectively, stay tuned for that in the coming days. Anyway, I now know what to make and how to make it. So, getting back to that screen recording, what does it show that makes me claim recursive self-improvement is here? If you keep your eye on the upper left tmux pane, that's the "controller" agent. It is using ntm to control all the other panes which are also running Claude Code (but ntm fully supports other agent types like Codex and Gemini-CLI, and it's trivially easy to mix and match them if you wanted to have, say, 8 CCs and 6 Codexes for writing the code and 3 Gemini-CLIs for reviewing code.) Now, there's nothing that crazy about this much so far. But where it starts to get very cool is that as the session continues and we encounter real-world problems, things like my ridiculously overloaded computer that keeps hanging for long periods, Claude Code instances that crash and get into a frozen, unresponsive state, it can learn from that. And you can see it using my skill writing skill to refine its ntm vibe coding skill in real time. And then take that skill and refine it to be more intuitive for itself. Or use my cass tool skill to search all the session histories to look for problems that came up and strategize how to solve them. The most useful part was when, towards the end of the session, I told it to reflect on all the things we had done and problems we encountered. One way it can usefully leverage those reflections is by improving its ntm vibe coding skill to make it cover more edge cases and exigencies. But the other, more fundamental, way is for it to conceive of and design the optimal new features and functionality for ntm itself so that the tool embodies those lessons in a first-class way. This offloads cognition from its brain onto its tooling, just like how a person can lean on spellcheck or a calculator. It codifies correct, effective reasoning at the tool level, where it's more reliable and robust and repeatable. And btw, did you notice what code base it was working on the whole time? It was none other than ntm itself! So as it worked on its own tool, it had reflections and ideas about how to further improve the tool. Now, it could have just as easily gotten those insights and ideas while using ntm to work on a different project, but the fact that it was working on itself is almost gloriously meta and recursive. So by the end, after learning from tending to a big group of agent workers (btw, I have previously emphasized doing everything in a really distributed/decentralized way, where each fungible agent gets identical marching orders that tell it to use my bv tool to find the optimal bead to work on. This does work very well, but occasionally results in some contention and overlap from thundering herd, or at least wastes time/tokens/communication in avoiding that before the agents waste time duplicating work. But in this new ntm-oriented workflow, I was able to have the controller agent in the upper left use bv itself and then optimally parcel out the instructions to each agent so that we could know for sure that there's no overlap), I ended up with a ton of new beads for new features, which I had it optimize and polish a few times. Now I can swap to a new Claude Max account and have the swarm implement all those new features! It should only take a couple passes like the one shown in the screen recording to get everything implemented. Then we can rinse and repeat, having the agent read through the full session histories of each agent and its experience from its own session in sending ntm commands and seeing how they worked out in practice, to come up with the next batch of changes to both its ntm vibe coding skill AND to the ntm tool itself. Do you see how rapidly this turns into Skynet? My mistake earlier was in focusing on making myself a "faster horse" as Henry Ford used to joke about customers wanting before he showed them what they should really want (a Model T). That is, something that would make my experience nicer while doing this agent swarm based development workflow. But the obvious lesson is that you should make all your tooling agent-first because the agents are just better at this stuff. You can still watch, and of course I did add a ridiculous number of very nice human-centric features to ntm that you'll be seeing in the next day or two, but those are really kind of "for fun" to make us humans feel better about the process. All the real value-add is happening "by agents, for agents." PS: Towards the end, you can see me switch to my Mac and tell Claude to improve the skill that I made earlier today for taking the mkv screen recording files from OBS Studio and muxing them into MP4 files for sharing, while downloading songs from YouTube to serve as the background music. I made it so it can also grab the thumbnails and generate little song credit cards that show up in the lower right corner. This worked perfectly the first time! I'll include some screenshots in a response post showing how that worked, but it was awesome to witness. Skills are POWERFUL. I'll also post a link to this video on YouTube if you prefer to watch it there.

Jeffrey Emanuel

25,483 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce