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🇸🇦 🇾🇪 Ballistic missiles reportedly slammed into Saudi oil infrastructure tonight. Unconfirmed footage shows missiles striking Jizan on Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast, with speculation pointing at Aramco's marine terminal just north of the city. It would be the first strike on Saudi oil since the Houthis declared their...

92,341 次观看 • 11 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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Houthis are warning Saudi ships not to transit the Red Sea / Gulf of Aden. Some initial thoughts: Initial indications are that this blockade applies only to ships that are owned by a Saudi company or are Saudi Arabia-flagged. At the moment, this does not suggest that Saudi ports are likely to be targeted, nor does it suggest that ships calling at Saudi ports are at increased risk. It does however starve Saudi Arabia of direct access to the Asian markets. The BaM is Saudi’s gateway to Asia without having to circumnavigate the whole African continent. We cannot just assume though, that because the Houthis did not explicitly call out Saudi ports, that this threat does not apply to them. The Houthis have the capability to target both Saudi Red Sea and Gulf ports, and are not always forthcoming with information before the implementation of a new target profile (Magic Seas/Eternity C). Saudi is relying on Yanbu to export oil via East-West pipeline due to SoH cargo volumes being significantly reduced. Yanbu is a huge vulnerability in the global oil market should the Houthis choose to attack. We must also see how KSA responds. The RSAF struck Sana’a last week which appears to be a shift away from their normal restraint and could suggest the Saudis are ready for another confrontation with the Houthis. It is likely that the Houthis are retaining escalation such as KSA ports, ships calling KSA etc to respond to any potential Saudi response.

Martin Kelly

155,816 次观看 • 15 天前