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"Based on the fact that the Fed is highly data dependent, I think they will not raise rates this month," says Mohamed A. El-Erian. "But they will keep the door open for at least one more rate hike in the future."

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39,964 просмотров • 3 лет назад •via X (Twitter)

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Комментарии: 6

Фото профиля John Tuld
John Tuld3 лет назад

@elerianm I really wish financial channels wouldn't pimp this guy's constant campaign to be a Fed chair member. This guy is just Steve Liesman, with actual experience.

Фото профиля Gerald Jermaine
Gerald Jermaine3 лет назад

@elerianm You guys say the same thing every damn time. LOL

Фото профиля boyzMETA.eth
boyzMETA.eth3 лет назад

@elerianm It’s all depends on the direction of US 10Y #Bond Yield if it’s going to break 4.3% resistance or higher See below 👇👇

Фото профиля Douglas Ritz
Douglas Ritz3 лет назад

@elerianm “that’s what the market expects” Ask yourself, did the market expect a 550 bps rise in 18 months?

Фото профиля TyrannoSkiSaurus Rex
TyrannoSkiSaurus Rex3 лет назад

@elerianm

Фото профиля Double Kay🟧
Double Kay🟧3 лет назад

@elerianm

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Will Warsh deliver the expected quarter point hike and defy Trump? "Markets are strongly expecting a quarter point rate hike, which will be the first increase since 2023. Markets pricing this at like 93% right now." "I'm not saying they won't hike, because maybe they have to, but I still would be kind of a little bit surprised to see Warsh go against Trump and hike." "Trump appointed Kevin Warsh expecting lower rates. And now Warsh has to face that pressure on one side, but the actual market and doing the right thing pressure probably on the other side. All of that could hurt his credibility here." "Is the Fed independent, and will he hike rates because that's what the data says? Or is Kevin Warsh in fact a sock puppet who was put in position to get rates down on behalf of Donald Trump?" "It's important to remember that he does not decide this. There is a committee, and three of them already wanted hikes at the last meeting."
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Will Warsh deliver the expected quarter point hike and defy Trump? "Markets are strongly expecting a quarter point rate hike, which will be the first increase since 2023. Markets pricing this at like 93% right now." "I'm not saying they won't hike, because maybe they have to, but I still would be kind of a little bit surprised to see Warsh go against Trump and hike." "Trump appointed Kevin Warsh expecting lower rates. And now Warsh has to face that pressure on one side, but the actual market and doing the right thing pressure probably on the other side. All of that could hurt his credibility here." "Is the Fed independent, and will he hike rates because that's what the data says? Or is Kevin Warsh in fact a sock puppet who was put in position to get rates down on behalf of Donald Trump?" "It's important to remember that he does not decide this. There is a committee, and three of them already wanted hikes at the last meeting."

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Jim Bianco says the Fed should raise rates, and the market has been signaling it for two years "I'm going to take the other side of this conversation, that the Fed will raise rates, the Fed should raise rates. And the market has been signaling that for a long time." "September 18th 2024, almost two years ago, is when they first started cutting rates. The 10-year yield at that point was 3.60. Today it's 4.99, 4.98. It's up 130 basis points." "This is the first time in at least 60 years that we did a rate cut cycle and long term rates went up. This is the only time this has happened." "The reason this has happened is the market has been screaming that the Fed has had the wrong policy for two years. I think it's now a correction of that incorrect policy that we're going to start to see happen, starting on Wednesday."
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Jim Bianco says the Fed should raise rates, and the market has been signaling it for two years "I'm going to take the other side of this conversation, that the Fed will raise rates, the Fed should raise rates. And the market has been signaling that for a long time." "September 18th 2024, almost two years ago, is when they first started cutting rates. The 10-year yield at that point was 3.60. Today it's 4.99, 4.98. It's up 130 basis points." "This is the first time in at least 60 years that we did a rate cut cycle and long term rates went up. This is the only time this has happened." "The reason this has happened is the market has been screaming that the Fed has had the wrong policy for two years. I think it's now a correction of that incorrect policy that we're going to start to see happen, starting on Wednesday."

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The bond market no longer responds to the Fed or the Treasury "We have, for the first time in decades, 10-year yields have surpassed 5%." "Remember, Powell cut rates and we started a rate cutting cycle. That should have sent those yields down. It didn't." "We have Bessent trying to talk yields down by bond market intervention. That has not worked. The bond vigilantes are not believing any of this. And to be quite frank, I don't think they believe a 25 bip rate hike either." "I think that the Fed is largely neutered here. Nothing they do short of raising a full point or two points, or doing something extremely aggressive which obviously is not even in the cards, would even affect the market." "So I actually think if they hike rates, we'll probably see some temporary relief and then rates will once again rise, which is what's happened every time that they've tried to intervene."
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The bond market no longer responds to the Fed or the Treasury "We have, for the first time in decades, 10-year yields have surpassed 5%." "Remember, Powell cut rates and we started a rate cutting cycle. That should have sent those yields down. It didn't." "We have Bessent trying to talk yields down by bond market intervention. That has not worked. The bond vigilantes are not believing any of this. And to be quite frank, I don't think they believe a 25 bip rate hike either." "I think that the Fed is largely neutered here. Nothing they do short of raising a full point or two points, or doing something extremely aggressive which obviously is not even in the cards, would even affect the market." "So I actually think if they hike rates, we'll probably see some temporary relief and then rates will once again rise, which is what's happened every time that they've tried to intervene."

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In the future they will demand this was AI generated. I saved the receipts. Your AI will know the real Mandela past, one of them at least.
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The FED wants you to lose your job the unemployment rate is low, so they will keep raising interest rates until your company is forced to let you go this is how they protect you from inflation :)
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