Before a collapse, nothing looks wrong. The numbers are printing records, the money is flowing, and the people warning about it are laughed out of the room. Last time it was housing. Today it's AI. The fire doesn't start when the rally ends. It starts inside the climb. Here's... how it happens.show more

Jay - this is an amazing video. Simply great thinking, well communicated and well-produced. I'd love to have you on my program to discuss...interested?

Would love to Chris!

Script for this sounds like it’s AI generated

😘

There's always that last, essential, final round of irrationality in non-functioning markets that befuddles the minds of the few remaining rational souls. Study China. REALLY study China. Like a student. Look back Millennia! Then, you will see what is to come.

You will probably keep saying this justifying every dip over the next 20 years as “it” grows like 2000% before you are finally proven correct when it drops 20%. Oh and while we are at it what is “AI”, “It”, etc.

Wow, simply wow. Great take on the root causes of the financial crisis of 20007/2008 and how this releates to the financial world of today. Thank you for sharing your thougths!

*nothing looks terribly wrong except for valuations of a specific asset class or stock market sector being disproportionately overvalued on valuation relative to other sectors and industries. Speculators often start to see things as a can't lose opportunity and then use leverage

Isn't this the definition of a Ponzi scheme?

You just appropriated the groundbreakr substack article without giving it any credit. I find that appalling

Nice video. You should have credited @gndbrkr though.

I was in SF during the 2000 boom. And you are right, it crashed when the dot coms couldn't raise more capital for their deficit. Google & Amazon were profitable, or going to be, and survived... Party stops when loose lending stops. Creditism?

This would be cause for concern except American companies who are going to ring fence their LLM’s ; they don’t want to use Chinese models. Fortune 500 companies; pharmaceutical companies and so on. They don’t want to use Chinese models. The Chinese models run on a bigger stack. A bigger stack that the Chinese don’t have and are way behind building it. This is a well done video. Host speaks well but very misinformed.

Yes. But big tech regular business print a cumulative 400 billions a year of cash (combined Google, Meta, Amazon, Apple), there is no default here, there is real money being produced available to pay debts.

timely video - at some point the fundamentals will catch-up to the stock prices......

Wow! So good that I made my wife watch this and she doesn't care about finance.

So we’re living in the middle of a Ponzi scheme! Thanks so much for this video, great explanation. Time to make changes to investments…

Dude, Jay ...you took 45 minutes to just say "everything is fake and gay" Seriously, bravo ..well done sir. This was one of the better videos explaining Enron 2.0. You're gifted in explaining the articulation in laymen terms. I hope you do more of these for free for us peasants.

Excellent content, but disagree that we need China, or that it would be a major issue to remove them from our market. The technology drain was allowed, or even planned. We've moved away from God, natural living & the intended small business model this country was built on. Everyone can / should revert back to a simpler life; rely less on: big corp, govt & others. We're meant to be self-reliant. Big changes are coming, & no one lives for ever - plan for both.

What if we are still years out the crash? As you said, AI now is national security and the stock market is also national security. What if the government is who ends up funding openAI liabilities in some strategic investment to keep the wheel spinning? Then we would be years away from the crash.

If OpenAI and Anthropic have a successfull IPO this year, they'll have enough capital for a while more.

Jay, this is an excellent explanation of why consuming the future always fails! Thank you!

It's just dick swinging. How big, fast and enormous it's my computer. Absolutely fucking insane.

Do bears ever get tired of relating everything back to the GFC, it’s legitimately the only thing they have to go back on and it’s exhausting.

The profits are privatized, the loses are socialized. Gov. Bailout, paid by taxes for generations. Your rrsp/401k (pensions) are buying these index's, making y'all the bag holders for their exit liquidity.

The irony of the AI script

excellent work here.

It’s a Ponzi scheme being described.

How do you short this?

Thanks Jay Terrific,elegant Explanation

Excellent. Reminds me of the crash of 87. The "Portfolio Insurance" strategy required someone go be on the other side of their trades. Surprise!

If the market goes down even to where it was 3 months ago there will be trillions of dollars of QE. That's why this is not 1929, 2000 or 2007. Even 15% decline would mean 2-3 trillion of QE.

just dropped a polished 25-minute video warning that the entire AI trade is a 2008-style house of cards about to collapse. Before you take that at face value, ask yourself one simple question: What does this man actually sell for a living? Jay Martin is the host of the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference and the face of a media business built almost entirely around junior mining companies, gold, silver, and commodities. His audience, his ticket sales, his sponsorships, and his content ecosystem all depend on retail and institutional money flowing into the resource sector. AI is currently the single largest competitor for that capital. Every dollar that piles into Nvidia, the hyperscalers, OpenAI, or the broader AI infrastructure complex is a dollar that is not buying junior explorers, gold developers, or copper stories in British Columbia. When tech is the dominant narrative, resource conferences struggle. When fear of a tech bubble rises, capital rotates toward “real assets,” gold becomes the safe-haven story again, and attendance at events like VRIC goes up. That is not a conspiracy. It is basic business incentives. Martin is not an AI researcher. He is not a semiconductor analyst. He is not a software investor. He is a professional promoter of the exact asset class that benefits most when people lose faith in the growth story of the decade. Of course he is motivated to frame AI as fragile, circular, and destined to implode. The more convincingly he makes that case, the more relevant his own conference and content become. You can still evaluate the financial structure points he raises on their own merits. Circular financing and massive take-or-pay contracts are real risks worth watching. But do not confuse a skilled resource-sector operator making a self-interested macro argument with a neutral diagnosis of the AI trade. When the guy whose livelihood depends on money leaving growth stocks starts yelling that the growth story is a house of cards, the smart response is not blind agreement. It’s “of course you would say that.”

@peruvian_bull In bull markets premiums are paid for promises while in bear markets discounts are paid for reality. AI is a winner take all proposition. When the dust settles the re-evaluations on the losers will be utterly catastrophic.

Bro, that was a great explanation. Good work.

-21:00 reminds me of the growing negative equity in auto loans- eventually, the car buyer won’t be able to roll all that debt into the next auto loan.