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BIG | 🇷🇺🇺🇦🌊‼️‼️ Russia is completing what appears to be its first dedicated naval-drone base in occupied Crimea, creating a new threat axis toward Odesa, Mykolaiv and Ukrainian shipping in the Black Sea. New satellite imagery from Lake Donuzlav shows a network of shelters apparently built for Russian unmanned...

17,526 Aufrufe • vor 11 Tagen •via X (Twitter)

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The Russia-Ukraine war has moved to the sea and effectively blocked the Black Sea for international trade. Trade logistics are blocked for both Russia and Ukraine. Russia is destroying Ukrainian ports and attacking commercial vessels, including those of third-party states. In July, Ukraine recorded 35 Russian attacks on ships in ports, 22 attacks on ships at sea, and 67 strikes on port infrastructure. On 19 July, a Russian strike on the corn-carrying merchant vessel Golden Leo near Odesa killed ten people. In response, Ukraine has expanded its campaign against Russian tankers, terminals, and routes through the Sea of Azov, the Kerch Strait, and Novorossiysk. Ukraine is clearly demonstrating goodwill toward peace, in contrast to Putin’s Russia. In particular, Ukraine, through Türkiye, submitted a proposal for a moratorium on attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea. Turkish FM Hakan Fidan said Türkiye had conveyed it to the Russian side and is now awaiting Moscow’s response. Ankara has effectively taken on the role of mediator and is trying to turn the Ukrainian proposal into an arrangement acceptable to both sides. For Türkiye, the war on maritime routes has already become a direct problem for its own security and economy. Turkish vessels, companies, and crews are coming under attack. After the 4 August attack on on a Turkish-owned vessel near Novorossiysk, which left three crew members seriously injured, the Turkish Foreign Ministry called on Russia and Ukraine to take measures to ensure the safety of civilian navigation. Türkiye also faces a mine threat: together with Romania and Bulgaria, it has created the Mine Countermeasures Black Sea Task Group to search for and destroy drifting mines. Türkiye’s strategic goal is to preserve a controlled balance of power in the Black Sea and its own central role in it. Ankara supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity, does not recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and is interested in preserving Ukraine as a fully functioning Black Sea state. Russian control over the Ukrainian coastline would be disadvantageous for Türkiye. At the same time, Ankara does not want a rupture with Russia, which remains an important trade and energy partner. Türkiye is also not interested in a permanent large-scale naval presence by non-Black Sea NATO states. The 1936 Montreux Convention remains the foundation of its policy. After the start of the full-scale war, Ankara restricted the passage of warships belonging to the warring parties through the Bosporus and Dardanelles, making it more difficult for Russia to reinforce its Black Sea Fleet. However, Türkiye has far less room to maneuver when it comes to commercial vessels: the Montreux Convention does not allow it to arbitrarily block civilian transit as a means of political pressure. Türkiye has enough tools to organize a maritime agreement, but cannot itself guarantee its implementation. Ankara maintains direct channels with Kyiv and Moscow, controls the straits, has the largest naval potential among NATO’s Black Sea members, and has experience from the 2022 Black Sea Grain Initiative. At that time, Türkiye and the UN coordinated vessel movements and inspections through the Joint Coordination Centre in Istanbul. In 2026, Türkiye is also involved in preparations for a Maritime Component Command that could help secure a future peace in the Black Sea. In practical terms, Ankara could establish a new coordination center, maintain a registry of protected vessels, agree on routes, share information with the parties, and organize monitoring. But if Russia or Ukraine decides to continue strikes, Türkiye itself cannot ensure the security of a corridor without a significantly broader military-political agreement. What might the most realistic compromise look like? Most likely it would not be a general maritime ceasefire, but a narrower agreement covering grain, specific vessels, and designated routes. Protected vessels could be pre-registered through a Turkish coordination mechanism, listing their IMO number, flag, owner, cargo, and route. The first stage could cover grain, food, and fertilizers, as well as designated terminals in Odesa, Chornomorsk, Pivdennyi, Novorossiysk, and other agreed ports. For Ukraine, it is crucial that such protection not automatically extend to Russian oil tankers and the shadow fleet: strikes on oil logistics are an important means of putting pressure on Russian revenues. Russia, for its part, may try to tie its consent to sanctions relief, Russian Agricultural Bank’s access to international payments, vessel insurance, and fertilizer exports. The central issue in negotiations would therefore not be the principle of a moratorium itself, but its scope: which vessels, cargoes, ports, and routes would be protected, and what would remain a legitimate target. For Ukraine, an acceptable basis could be the safety of Ukrainian civilian agricultural exports in exchange for the safety of Russian civilian food exports, without automatically extending protection to all Russian maritime trade.

Anton Gerashchenko

28,130 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

For the first time, Ukraine 🇺🇦 is expanding mid-range strikes (with video feed) deep into Russian 🇷🇺 territory Dozens of strikes hit air-defense systems, radars and aircrafts in southern Russia. Strikes in 2026 against air-defense and radars damaged or destroyed more than 250 assets, including modern air-defense systems, jammers, and radars. Most of the fixed radars in Crimea have been hit, together with tens of air-defense systems in southern and eastern occupied Ukraine. With Starlink connexion, Ukrainian FP-2 drones (the main ones being used for these strikes) can reach anywhere in occupied Ukraine, but also in the black sea and in coastal areas of Russia. However, this is the first time we see video feed of strikes against airbases and air-defense systems in Russia, where Starlink cannot be used. There are few possibilities that could allow these strikes, with the use of a MESH system with repeater drones to keep connectivity or maybe something new. With precise strikes now targeting Voronezh, Rostov oblast and Krasnodar Kraï, Russia is now facing new difficulties. The destruction of multiple radars which guard the borders between occupied Ukraine (where Starlink can be used) and southern Russia can open new gaps for long range strikes targeting energy infrastructure and industry in southern Russia. For Ukraine, this may open the way to the targeting of Iskander and S-400 missile launchers close to the border in Bryansk, Kursk and Belgorod oblast which are used to target Kyiv (Kyiv is barely within range).

Clément Molin

49,609 Aufrufe • vor 21 Tagen

‼️‼️🇺🇦🇷🇺 In a devastating maritime blitz that marks one of the most extensive asymmetric assaults on naval logistics in modern history, Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces have completely paralyzed Russian commercial and military shipping across the Sea of Azov. The catastrophic operational fallout has forced Russian border authorities to abruptly suspend all vessel movement through the critical Don-Donbas-Azov shipping canal and completely freeze transit applications for the strategic Kerch Strait. According to an official briefing by the Commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces, Robert "Madyar" Brovdi, elite strike units operating under the SBS Birds command executed an industrial-scale drone operation overnight. Over the course of a single night, Ukrainian drone swarms successfully hunted and battered 28 vessels belonging to Russia's illicit "shadow fleet" in the Sea of Azov. This single-night victory caps off a relentless 6-day maritime blockade. In total, Ukrainian drone operators have achieved 73 confirmed precision hits across 76 hostile vessels, systematically dismantling the Kremlin's maritime supply chain. The official damage log confirmed by the SBS Birds command includes: 21 shadow-fleet oil tankers aggressively neutralized to choke off fuel supplies. 4 maritime tugboats and 2 dry cargo vessels heavily damaged. 1 specialized engineering vessel (dredger) critical for port infrastructure knocked out. Simultaneously, the large-scale operation projected immense kinetic power deep into the enemy's operational rear. Across occupied Crimea and the southern frontline sectors, Ukrainian forces successfully obliterated 53 legitimate military targets—obliterating crucial air defense coordinates, radar stations, and energy infrastructure. By turning the Sea of Azov into a burning trap, Ukraine has effectively shattered Russia’s southern military logistics while severing the vital economic channels Moscow uses to fund its war machine. See the latest updates with us: Visioner

Visioner

102,348 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten