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Bill Ackman says diversification protects you when you don’t fully understand what you own but concentration becomes an edge when you do. Once your best ideas get diluted, outperforming gets a lot harder which is why his top 3 to 4 positions make up ~50% of the portfolio.

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401,533 次观看 • 4 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Bill Ackman, founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management: "It's very hard to outperform the market once you become a highly diversified portfolio." Ackman makes the case that real outperformance comes from concentration, not from spreading capital across dozens of positions. Bill Ackman starts with a famous line from Warren Buffett: "I think Warren Buffett once said, you know, diversification is protection against ignorance." And he unpacks what that means for ordinary investors: "If you don't know a lot about the companies that you're investing in, you want to invest in a lot of companies because the diversification will protect you from mistakes." But Ackman argues the logic flips entirely once you have a genuine edge, the ability to study a business deeply and to shape its direction. "If you have the ability to do deep due diligence on companies, and I would say as significantly, if the nature of your strategy allows you to have a lot of influence over those companies, you really want to pick the best dozen or so companies as opposed to dilute the top 12 or the top 15 with 16, 17, 20, 25, 50." In other words, every position you add beyond your best ideas waters down your conviction rather than strengthening it. That's why he's so blunt about the cost of spreading too thin: "I think it's very hard to outperform the market once you become a highly diversified portfolio." And he ties his own track record directly to this philosophy, pointing not just to picking a small number of businesses, but to actively helping them improve: "And so our returns have come in part because of concentration and our returns in part have come from the fact that we help our company succeed."

Bill Ackman, founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management: "It's very hard to outperform the market once you become a highly diversified portfolio." Ackman makes the case that real outperformance comes from concentration, not from spreading capital across dozens of positions. Bill Ackman starts with a famous line from Warren Buffett: "I think Warren Buffett once said, you know, diversification is protection against ignorance." And he unpacks what that means for ordinary investors: "If you don't know a lot about the companies that you're investing in, you want to invest in a lot of companies because the diversification will protect you from mistakes." But Ackman argues the logic flips entirely once you have a genuine edge, the ability to study a business deeply and to shape its direction. "If you have the ability to do deep due diligence on companies, and I would say as significantly, if the nature of your strategy allows you to have a lot of influence over those companies, you really want to pick the best dozen or so companies as opposed to dilute the top 12 or the top 15 with 16, 17, 20, 25, 50." In other words, every position you add beyond your best ideas waters down your conviction rather than strengthening it. That's why he's so blunt about the cost of spreading too thin: "I think it's very hard to outperform the market once you become a highly diversified portfolio." And he ties his own track record directly to this philosophy, pointing not just to picking a small number of businesses, but to actively helping them improve: "And so our returns have come in part because of concentration and our returns in part have come from the fact that we help our company succeed."

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Bill Ackman on a diversified portfolio: "Diversification protects you from ignorance. Right? If you don't know what you're doing just do a lot of things." If your research correctly identifies the fundamental quality and durable cash flows of a business, extreme concentration is the logical way to beat the market. The wealthiest founders build their fortunes on a "portfolio of one". Ackman said for stock pickers, conducting deep business research, holding just 10 to 12 highly predictable companies provides more than adequate risk management. My only caveat is people vastly underestimate the risks of a business and overestimate their true understanding of the business. This is the single biggest issue with high concentration.

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