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Bitcoin bros explain the value of bitcoin

45,031 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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BITCOIN VS. THE S&P 500 - THE NEXT 10 YEARS There is a lot of talk and crying about how Bitcoin has diminishing returns and it's not worth the volatility. And to that I say: LOL. Since January 1st, 2020: Bitcoin CAGR: 44% Bitcoin Vol: 60% SPY CAGR: 14% SPY Vol: 20% Bitcoin gave you roughly 3x the volatility but slightly more than 3x the compound growth rate. Now lets walk forward a decade, SEVERELY HANDICAPPING Bitcoin but not touching S&P 500. Yup. Let's cut Bitcoin's CAGR and Vol in HALF. New BTC CAGR: 22% New BTC Vol: 30% Now a Monte Carlo simulation of a $10,000 investment in each with 100,000 paths! Median ending value: Bitcoin: $72,827 (7.3x return) SPY: $37,046 (3.7x return) 5th percentile return: Bitcoin: $15,105 SPY: $13,091 95th percentile: Bitcoin: $347,226 SPY: $104,765 The chance of your investment winding up greater than $100k: Bitcoin: 36.8% SPY: 5.8% Let's run it again with 6% inflation eating both of them. Real CAGR after the government takes its cut: Bitcoin: 15.1% SPY: 7.5% Median ending value: Bitcoin: $40,666 (4.1x) SPY: $20,686 (2.1x) 5th percentile: Bitcoin: $8,435 SPY: $7,310 Yes, both of them lose in the left tail. Inflation stays undefeated down there. Choose your poison honestly. 95th percentile: Bitcoin: $193,889 SPY: $58,500 Odds of simply keeping your purchasing power: Bitcoin: 93.1% SPY: 87.5% Odds of ending with more than $100,000 in today's dollars: Bitcoin: 17.2% SPY: 0.6% Nominally that gap was 6x. In real terms it becomes 27x, because $100k sits way out on the S&P's skinny little tail. I handicapped Bitcoin with half the return, half the volatility, and Bitcoin still buys the house while SPY buys the down payment. Bitcoin remains the APEX GROWTH ASSET and the S&P 500 remains the preferred choice for khaki-wearing midwits stuck in a beige office chair from 1994:

Adam Livingston

19,930 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat