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Bitcoin exploded again on Thursday, jumping 5.3% to 73,400 and closing right above our 72,204 short term Fibonacci level, filling that fair value gap from the June 1st drop that a viewer flagged weeks ago. I'm not chasing this move since it's up 17% in a week, which is...

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Aaron Dishner

19,145 subscribers

16,600 次观看 • 13 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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BTC closed Monday up 1.62%, tagging a fresh local high right at 80,000, but RSI only managed a lower high at 88, so we've got a confirmed bearish divergence layered on top of six straight days overbought. That doesn't mean Bitcoin has to drop today, but I'm watching the fast line near 70,400 and the 618 Fib around 72K as the realistic pullback zones if buyers pause here. Ethereum is in the same boat, overbought for seven days after topping near 2,546, so I'm watching for a bearish RSI reset on both coins rather than assuming the rally just keeps ripping without a breather. Dominance is telling the real story of where money is flowing right now. Stablecoin dominance cratered to oversold, Bitcoin dominance spiked, Ethereum dominance is still strong but showing early bearish RSI resets, and Solana dominance just broke out with its first closed short since 2023, which tells me alts are starting to wake up even though TOTAL3ESBTC shows we're still nowhere near the euphoric highs from past cycles. The total crypto market cap excluding stables pushed back to 2.4 trillion, and closing above that would open the door to a much hotter move, so I'm treating every one of these pullbacks as a buying opportunity rather than something to fear. On the TradFi side, DXY caught a bullish RSI reset after Besant's comments on Iran sanctions, S&P Futures are chopping inside the cloud even with strong PMI data, Nvidia printed a bearish reversal after earnings, and gold is threatening to break above the 0.5 Fib level in a big way. Across my picks, Club picks, and YouTube picks I'm leaning hard into buy the dip mode on names like Solana, Injective, XLM, APT, Uber, Meta, and App, because between the overbought streaks and the dominance rotation, I still think we're early in this cycle, not late. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin Recovery Signals Support a Bounce 07:50 Ethereum Support, Momentum and Trade Risk 10:42 Bitcoin Dominance Overbought Conditions Raise Exhaustion Risk 14:07 Ethereum Dominance and Altcoin Rotation 21:51 TOTAL3ESBTC Resistance Shows Altcoins Are Still Early 26:36 EURUSD Bearish Consolidation Raises Downside Risk 29:24 Tesla Overbought Momentum Tests the Fast Line 35:02 LINK and Altcoin Watchlist Risk 39:13 BONK Resistance Could Confirm a Bullish Trend 51:15 NBIS Bearish Consolidation Raises Downside Risk
1:00:27

BTC closed Monday up 1.62%, tagging a fresh local high right at 80,000, but RSI only managed a lower high at 88, so we've got a confirmed bearish divergence layered on top of six straight days overbought. That doesn't mean Bitcoin has to drop today, but I'm watching the fast line near 70,400 and the 618 Fib around 72K as the realistic pullback zones if buyers pause here. Ethereum is in the same boat, overbought for seven days after topping near 2,546, so I'm watching for a bearish RSI reset on both coins rather than assuming the rally just keeps ripping without a breather. Dominance is telling the real story of where money is flowing right now. Stablecoin dominance cratered to oversold, Bitcoin dominance spiked, Ethereum dominance is still strong but showing early bearish RSI resets, and Solana dominance just broke out with its first closed short since 2023, which tells me alts are starting to wake up even though TOTAL3ESBTC shows we're still nowhere near the euphoric highs from past cycles. The total crypto market cap excluding stables pushed back to 2.4 trillion, and closing above that would open the door to a much hotter move, so I'm treating every one of these pullbacks as a buying opportunity rather than something to fear. On the TradFi side, DXY caught a bullish RSI reset after Besant's comments on Iran sanctions, S&P Futures are chopping inside the cloud even with strong PMI data, Nvidia printed a bearish reversal after earnings, and gold is threatening to break above the 0.5 Fib level in a big way. Across my picks, Club picks, and YouTube picks I'm leaning hard into buy the dip mode on names like Solana, Injective, XLM, APT, Uber, Meta, and App, because between the overbought streaks and the dominance rotation, I still think we're early in this cycle, not late. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin Recovery Signals Support a Bounce 07:50 Ethereum Support, Momentum and Trade Risk 10:42 Bitcoin Dominance Overbought Conditions Raise Exhaustion Risk 14:07 Ethereum Dominance and Altcoin Rotation 21:51 TOTAL3ESBTC Resistance Shows Altcoins Are Still Early 26:36 EURUSD Bearish Consolidation Raises Downside Risk 29:24 Tesla Overbought Momentum Tests the Fast Line 35:02 LINK and Altcoin Watchlist Risk 39:13 BONK Resistance Could Confirm a Bullish Trend 51:15 NBIS Bearish Consolidation Raises Downside Risk

Aaron Dishner

17,665 次观看 • 9 天前

BTC is pushing toward major resistance near 81,400 to 82,850 after closing higher, but I remain cautious because RSI is deeply overbought. ETHUSDT looks bullish on higher timeframes, although its late breakout may signal exhaustion, while dominance suggests altcoin rotation is still early. I see DXY holding a strong bearish trend, USDJPY completing its fast-line target, and S&P Futures remaining bullish. I am treating potential NVDA weakness as a buy-the-dip opportunity, watching TSLA for bullish follow-through, and expecting pullbacks across gold, silver, platinum, and uranium. I am watching XMRUSD and JUPUSDT for further upside, but several breakouts look extended after large rallies. Across the Club and YouTube picks, I favor confirmed strength, selective dip opportunities, and taking profits into resistance rather than assuming an oversold chart has reached its bottom. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin Overbought Conditions Raise Exhaustion Risk 03:57 Stablecoin Dominance and Crypto Rotation 09:18 USDJPY Support Levels Define the Risk Scenario 15:26 Gold Price Structure Awaits Confirmation 19:12 XMR and UNI Overbought Conditions Raise Exhaustion Risk 27:45 Community Picks Volume Tests the Momentum Case 32:30 ISRG Volume Tests the Momentum Case 38:33 FET Price Structure Awaits Confirmation 40:42 STRK Overbought Momentum Tests the Fast Line 46:47 Cardano Overbought Risk and Rejection Zones 50:40 YouTube Picks and Market Risk Signals
59:36

BTC is pushing toward major resistance near 81,400 to 82,850 after closing higher, but I remain cautious because RSI is deeply overbought. ETHUSDT looks bullish on higher timeframes, although its late breakout may signal exhaustion, while dominance suggests altcoin rotation is still early. I see DXY holding a strong bearish trend, USDJPY completing its fast-line target, and S&P Futures remaining bullish. I am treating potential NVDA weakness as a buy-the-dip opportunity, watching TSLA for bullish follow-through, and expecting pullbacks across gold, silver, platinum, and uranium. I am watching XMRUSD and JUPUSDT for further upside, but several breakouts look extended after large rallies. Across the Club and YouTube picks, I favor confirmed strength, selective dip opportunities, and taking profits into resistance rather than assuming an oversold chart has reached its bottom. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin Overbought Conditions Raise Exhaustion Risk 03:57 Stablecoin Dominance and Crypto Rotation 09:18 USDJPY Support Levels Define the Risk Scenario 15:26 Gold Price Structure Awaits Confirmation 19:12 XMR and UNI Overbought Conditions Raise Exhaustion Risk 27:45 Community Picks Volume Tests the Momentum Case 32:30 ISRG Volume Tests the Momentum Case 38:33 FET Price Structure Awaits Confirmation 40:42 STRK Overbought Momentum Tests the Fast Line 46:47 Cardano Overbought Risk and Rejection Zones 50:40 YouTube Picks and Market Risk Signals

Aaron Dishner

11,698 次观看 • 6 天前

Bitcoin closed green today at 0.62%, but I'm watching price stall right below 79,000 with resistance capped near 82K, just above TBO resistance at 81,788. RSI has been confirmed overbought for eight straight days now, which is due for a pullback, even though on-balance volume still looks strongly bullish. My targets if this rolls over are the 0.786 fib near 76,700 first, then the 0.618 near 72,200, and I'll treat any real dip there as a buy the dip moment rather than a reason to panic. Ethereum closed up 2.63% and is still respecting resistance even with RSI overbought and volume fading, so I'm not ruling out a break higher before the eventual reset. Stablecoin dominance is exceptionally oversold and due for a snap back, Bitcoin dominance is showing higher highs with lower highs on RSI, and Solana dominance just had a huge breakout move on a 4.7% pop. Over on TradFi, DXY confirmed a strong bearish downtrend after losing its support line, USDJPY is still consolidating bullish without tagging its fast line yet, and EURUSD is cracking on a bearish RSI reset. I'm still taking a buy the dip approach on S&P Futures into Jackson Hole, along with Tesla and SpaceX, while oil, gold, silver, platinum, and copper all look set up for pullbacks that turn into buying opportunities, and uranium just printed a textbook shooting star reversal at the top of its move. Running through my picks, CVX is exceptionally overbought after a third breakout, DOG is stretched near 94 RSI on short liquidations, and gram, DOT, QNT, FLR, and LUNC all confirmed close shorts pointing to fast line pullbacks. NEAR and S both just confirmed open longs as bullish reversal signals, while POL and STABLE are flashing bearish close longs and breakdowns to watch. On the Club and YouTube Picks side, AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, and OKLO all carry bearish warnings pointing to pullback levels, ORCL and LIT are showing bullish reversal setups, and CRWD, ZETA, and CIFR all look like buy the dip candidates as they work toward resistance. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin Stalls Below Key Resistance 05:26 Ethereum Holds Bullish Trend As Volume Fades 08:23 Solana Dominance Breaks Out On Big Volume 11:57 DXY Confirms Bearish Downtrend Below Support 14:14 S&P Futures Signal Buy The Dip Ahead 16:36 Gold Faces Pullback Risk Before Bullish Continuation 19:24 Uranium Market Signals Shooting Star Reversal 26:25 Convex Finance Breaks Out To Overbought Extreme 35:52 Sonic Confirms Bullish Reversal After Open Long 41:35 Apple Risks Pullback To 285 Support 46:09 Nvidia Flashes Bearish Warning On Close Longs 57:32 CrowdStrike Stock Signals Buy The Dip Opportunity
59:09

Bitcoin closed green today at 0.62%, but I'm watching price stall right below 79,000 with resistance capped near 82K, just above TBO resistance at 81,788. RSI has been confirmed overbought for eight straight days now, which is due for a pullback, even though on-balance volume still looks strongly bullish. My targets if this rolls over are the 0.786 fib near 76,700 first, then the 0.618 near 72,200, and I'll treat any real dip there as a buy the dip moment rather than a reason to panic. Ethereum closed up 2.63% and is still respecting resistance even with RSI overbought and volume fading, so I'm not ruling out a break higher before the eventual reset. Stablecoin dominance is exceptionally oversold and due for a snap back, Bitcoin dominance is showing higher highs with lower highs on RSI, and Solana dominance just had a huge breakout move on a 4.7% pop. Over on TradFi, DXY confirmed a strong bearish downtrend after losing its support line, USDJPY is still consolidating bullish without tagging its fast line yet, and EURUSD is cracking on a bearish RSI reset. I'm still taking a buy the dip approach on S&P Futures into Jackson Hole, along with Tesla and SpaceX, while oil, gold, silver, platinum, and copper all look set up for pullbacks that turn into buying opportunities, and uranium just printed a textbook shooting star reversal at the top of its move. Running through my picks, CVX is exceptionally overbought after a third breakout, DOG is stretched near 94 RSI on short liquidations, and gram, DOT, QNT, FLR, and LUNC all confirmed close shorts pointing to fast line pullbacks. NEAR and S both just confirmed open longs as bullish reversal signals, while POL and STABLE are flashing bearish close longs and breakdowns to watch. On the Club and YouTube Picks side, AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, and OKLO all carry bearish warnings pointing to pullback levels, ORCL and LIT are showing bullish reversal setups, and CRWD, ZETA, and CIFR all look like buy the dip candidates as they work toward resistance. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin Stalls Below Key Resistance 05:26 Ethereum Holds Bullish Trend As Volume Fades 08:23 Solana Dominance Breaks Out On Big Volume 11:57 DXY Confirms Bearish Downtrend Below Support 14:14 S&P Futures Signal Buy The Dip Ahead 16:36 Gold Faces Pullback Risk Before Bullish Continuation 19:24 Uranium Market Signals Shooting Star Reversal 26:25 Convex Finance Breaks Out To Overbought Extreme 35:52 Sonic Confirms Bullish Reversal After Open Long 41:35 Apple Risks Pullback To 285 Support 46:09 Nvidia Flashes Bearish Warning On Close Longs 57:32 CrowdStrike Stock Signals Buy The Dip Opportunity

Aaron Dishner

12,184 次观看 • 7 天前

I closed out the weekend with a very green run on BTC, up 0.9% Saturday, 0.8% Sunday, and 2.68% week to week, marking five confirmed green days in a row for the first time since that March run all the way back from the 9th to the 16th. Bitcoin is sitting inside the daily TBO cloud in bullish consolidation, RSI hasn't even tagged overbought yet, and I'm now looking at a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly. My target for July is the weekly fast line at 71,145, roughly 12% higher from here, but I want to be clear the macro trend is still strong bearish and this bounce doesn't mean we're going up and to the right forever. Ethereum had a great weekend too, printing its first TBO close short since December, which tells me the short I called back on May 18th (a 29% drawdown) could be winding down. I'm not panic selling shorts yet, I want to wait for a pullback to the fast line before acting either way. Stablecoin dominance combined is showing lower highs and a TBO close long, which lines up with my expectation that this green July is a short term bounce rather than a trend change, and I'm watching for it to go oversold as my signal that the rally is closer to done than people think. Across the board I'm seeing similar setups: Bitcoin dominance printed a bullish divergence, Ethereum dominance is heading toward the top of its cloud where I plan to trim, and Solana dominance is still strong but showing signs a scale out opportunity is coming. In Tradfi, the Dixie looks ready to fall further which is bullish for crypto, gold and silver both have TBO close longs, and oil remains oversold for an incredible stretch. For my picks I like Bitcoin Cash and Aerodrome off their oversold bounces, I'm watching Solana and Ethereum for pullback entries, and I flagged Morpho, Lab, and Professor as weak charts I expect to roll over hard. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin's green weekend and reality check 02:28 Bitcoin RSI, July target, and weekly trend 04:30 Ethereum TBO close short and pullback plan 07:23 Stablecoin dominance and July bounce warning 10:17 Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana dominance 13:18 Total market cap and bullish trap risk 16:11 TradFi, Dixie, USDJPY, and S&P futures 19:15 TBO, journal, Kraken, Phemex, and AFX 22:51 Bitcoin Cash, Aerodrome, LIT, and Solana 25:27 Link, Litecoin, CRO, SKY, KAS, and BONK 28:09 DEXE, RIVER, Morpho, LAB, and Professor 30:44 ONDO, FET, USELESS, NPC, HBAR, and AKT 33:24 AMD, Dell, HOOD, HPE, AMAT, and Dutch Bros 35:38 SMST, BMNZ, and July video wrap
37:17

I closed out the weekend with a very green run on BTC, up 0.9% Saturday, 0.8% Sunday, and 2.68% week to week, marking five confirmed green days in a row for the first time since that March run all the way back from the 9th to the 16th. Bitcoin is sitting inside the daily TBO cloud in bullish consolidation, RSI hasn't even tagged overbought yet, and I'm now looking at a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly. My target for July is the weekly fast line at 71,145, roughly 12% higher from here, but I want to be clear the macro trend is still strong bearish and this bounce doesn't mean we're going up and to the right forever. Ethereum had a great weekend too, printing its first TBO close short since December, which tells me the short I called back on May 18th (a 29% drawdown) could be winding down. I'm not panic selling shorts yet, I want to wait for a pullback to the fast line before acting either way. Stablecoin dominance combined is showing lower highs and a TBO close long, which lines up with my expectation that this green July is a short term bounce rather than a trend change, and I'm watching for it to go oversold as my signal that the rally is closer to done than people think. Across the board I'm seeing similar setups: Bitcoin dominance printed a bullish divergence, Ethereum dominance is heading toward the top of its cloud where I plan to trim, and Solana dominance is still strong but showing signs a scale out opportunity is coming. In Tradfi, the Dixie looks ready to fall further which is bullish for crypto, gold and silver both have TBO close longs, and oil remains oversold for an incredible stretch. For my picks I like Bitcoin Cash and Aerodrome off their oversold bounces, I'm watching Solana and Ethereum for pullback entries, and I flagged Morpho, Lab, and Professor as weak charts I expect to roll over hard. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin's green weekend and reality check 02:28 Bitcoin RSI, July target, and weekly trend 04:30 Ethereum TBO close short and pullback plan 07:23 Stablecoin dominance and July bounce warning 10:17 Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana dominance 13:18 Total market cap and bullish trap risk 16:11 TradFi, Dixie, USDJPY, and S&P futures 19:15 TBO, journal, Kraken, Phemex, and AFX 22:51 Bitcoin Cash, Aerodrome, LIT, and Solana 25:27 Link, Litecoin, CRO, SKY, KAS, and BONK 28:09 DEXE, RIVER, Morpho, LAB, and Professor 30:44 ONDO, FET, USELESS, NPC, HBAR, and AKT 33:24 AMD, Dell, HOOD, HPE, AMAT, and Dutch Bros 35:38 SMST, BMNZ, and July video wrap

Aaron Dishner

10,593 次观看 • 1 个月前

Bitcoin closed up 2.39% on July 1st and I watched TBO support drop from 62k down to 57k after a surprising low. It came close to a massive bullish engulfing candle, wick to wick BTC was up 6%, but it didn't close above Tuesday's open at 60,276 so the reversal isn't confirmed yet. RSI is showing me clear bullish divergence with higher lows since June 10th even as price made lower lows, volume exceeded the moving average at 1.5 billion, and on balance volume is flattening out just like it did before the last major reversal, so I still believe we're close to a July bounce even though this remains a bear market. Ethereum bounced a similar 2.39% with its own bullish divergence cluster and a closed short on the four hour, though volume and on balance volume still need to confirm. I also went through stablecoin dominance, Bitcoin dominance, and Solana dominance, plus DXY and USDJPY which are both flashing dangerously overbought conditions eerily similar to July 2024 right before Bank of Japan intervention. On the macro side I covered S&P futures, the Fear and Greed Index closing its third TBO close long as a warning to take profit, oil grinding down toward 68 to fill its gap, and gold and silver both showing early bullish RSI resets inside otherwise bearish structures. For my picks I walked through a long list of oversold setups I like for a July bounce including Solana, Litecoin, Crow, Cardano, Bitcoin Cash, Sui, Ethereum Classic, Ondo, Vechain, Monad, and Worldcoin, along with take profit zones on Morpho and Curve. I also flagged charts I'm more cautious on like Velvet and Adam despite bullish RSI resets, shared my Kraken short trade recap on Bitcoin, and closed out with stock picks including Palantir, Bloom Energy, DRAM, and SEI, plus a reminder that my deeper explainer video on all of this drops Sunday. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin recap and near bullish engulfing candle 02:10 RSI bullish divergence and on balance volume setup 04:30 Ethereum bounce and four hour close short 06:15 Stablecoin, Bitcoin, and Solana dominance 08:00 DXY and USDJPY overbought warning signs 10:20 S&P futures, Fear and Greed Index, oil, gold and silver 13:40 Kraken trade recap and Better Traders Club 16:30 Altcoin picks: Solana, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, Sui 19:45 Ethereum Classic, Ondo, Morpho, Curve profit zones 22:30 Caution charts: Velvet and Adam 25:00 Worldcoin, Fartcoin, and oversold plays 27:40 Stock picks: Palantir, Bloom Energy, DRAM, SEI
56:24

Bitcoin closed up 2.39% on July 1st and I watched TBO support drop from 62k down to 57k after a surprising low. It came close to a massive bullish engulfing candle, wick to wick BTC was up 6%, but it didn't close above Tuesday's open at 60,276 so the reversal isn't confirmed yet. RSI is showing me clear bullish divergence with higher lows since June 10th even as price made lower lows, volume exceeded the moving average at 1.5 billion, and on balance volume is flattening out just like it did before the last major reversal, so I still believe we're close to a July bounce even though this remains a bear market. Ethereum bounced a similar 2.39% with its own bullish divergence cluster and a closed short on the four hour, though volume and on balance volume still need to confirm. I also went through stablecoin dominance, Bitcoin dominance, and Solana dominance, plus DXY and USDJPY which are both flashing dangerously overbought conditions eerily similar to July 2024 right before Bank of Japan intervention. On the macro side I covered S&P futures, the Fear and Greed Index closing its third TBO close long as a warning to take profit, oil grinding down toward 68 to fill its gap, and gold and silver both showing early bullish RSI resets inside otherwise bearish structures. For my picks I walked through a long list of oversold setups I like for a July bounce including Solana, Litecoin, Crow, Cardano, Bitcoin Cash, Sui, Ethereum Classic, Ondo, Vechain, Monad, and Worldcoin, along with take profit zones on Morpho and Curve. I also flagged charts I'm more cautious on like Velvet and Adam despite bullish RSI resets, shared my Kraken short trade recap on Bitcoin, and closed out with stock picks including Palantir, Bloom Energy, DRAM, and SEI, plus a reminder that my deeper explainer video on all of this drops Sunday. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin recap and near bullish engulfing candle 02:10 RSI bullish divergence and on balance volume setup 04:30 Ethereum bounce and four hour close short 06:15 Stablecoin, Bitcoin, and Solana dominance 08:00 DXY and USDJPY overbought warning signs 10:20 S&P futures, Fear and Greed Index, oil, gold and silver 13:40 Kraken trade recap and Better Traders Club 16:30 Altcoin picks: Solana, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, Sui 19:45 Ethereum Classic, Ondo, Morpho, Curve profit zones 22:30 Caution charts: Velvet and Adam 25:00 Worldcoin, Fartcoin, and oversold plays 27:40 Stock picks: Palantir, Bloom Energy, DRAM, SEI

Aaron Dishner

11,408 次观看 • 2 个月前

BTC pushed above the TBO cloud over the weekend and is technically strong bullish in the short term, but Aaron’s core message today was still caution. Volume remains weak, the Slow line is still macro bearish, and RSI is putting in lower highs while price stalls just under 80K. Even with OBV still technically bullish, this move does not yet look strong enough to change the bigger bearish view. ETH looks even weaker than BTC here. It bounced, but it still has not cleanly cleared overhead resistance, RSI continues to trend lower, and volume plus OBV both look fragile. Aaron is still expecting a lower low on ETH, and that fits with the broader setup where BTC is holding up better than the rest of the market. The bigger macro warning signs are still in dominance and risk sentiment. BTC.D remains very strong, stablecoin dominance looks ready to push higher, and TOTALES plus OTHERS/BTC still look vulnerable to rejection. If stablecoin dominance rises while BTC.D stays firm, alts are likely to keep getting punished even if BTC itself only pulls back modestly. TradFi is also flashing risk-on excess while Aaron stays skeptical. DXY looks like it could bounce, USDJPY remains important after Japan intervention talk, GameStop pumping again is a sign of greed, and oil still looks strong while gold and silver stay mixed. On the watchlist, Aaron leaned bearish on names like XLM, NEAR, ICP, ARB, RENDER, DEXE, PENGU, MON, and AERO, while stronger charts like DOGE, HYPE, and MORPHO still look impressive but increasingly suspicious if momentum keeps fading. Chapters: 00:00 BTC above the cloud but still lacking conviction 03:10 ETH looks weaker than BTC 06:13 BTC dominance and stablecoin dominance warnings 10:42 TOTALES and OTHERS/BTC rejection risk 12:50 DXY, USDJPY, and stock market risk sentiment 16:57 Oil, gold, and silver check-in 18:56 TRX, ZEC, TAO, ONDO, and H 22:55 XLM, WLFI, NEAR, ICP, ARB, and ZRO 27:12 DEXE, PENGU, MON, and AERO 31:17 DOGE, HYPE, XMR, ALGO, MORPHO, and viewer picks 34:22 Final outlook for May and June
35:01

BTC pushed above the TBO cloud over the weekend and is technically strong bullish in the short term, but Aaron’s core message today was still caution. Volume remains weak, the Slow line is still macro bearish, and RSI is putting in lower highs while price stalls just under 80K. Even with OBV still technically bullish, this move does not yet look strong enough to change the bigger bearish view. ETH looks even weaker than BTC here. It bounced, but it still has not cleanly cleared overhead resistance, RSI continues to trend lower, and volume plus OBV both look fragile. Aaron is still expecting a lower low on ETH, and that fits with the broader setup where BTC is holding up better than the rest of the market. The bigger macro warning signs are still in dominance and risk sentiment. BTC.D remains very strong, stablecoin dominance looks ready to push higher, and TOTALES plus OTHERS/BTC still look vulnerable to rejection. If stablecoin dominance rises while BTC.D stays firm, alts are likely to keep getting punished even if BTC itself only pulls back modestly. TradFi is also flashing risk-on excess while Aaron stays skeptical. DXY looks like it could bounce, USDJPY remains important after Japan intervention talk, GameStop pumping again is a sign of greed, and oil still looks strong while gold and silver stay mixed. On the watchlist, Aaron leaned bearish on names like XLM, NEAR, ICP, ARB, RENDER, DEXE, PENGU, MON, and AERO, while stronger charts like DOGE, HYPE, and MORPHO still look impressive but increasingly suspicious if momentum keeps fading. Chapters: 00:00 BTC above the cloud but still lacking conviction 03:10 ETH looks weaker than BTC 06:13 BTC dominance and stablecoin dominance warnings 10:42 TOTALES and OTHERS/BTC rejection risk 12:50 DXY, USDJPY, and stock market risk sentiment 16:57 Oil, gold, and silver check-in 18:56 TRX, ZEC, TAO, ONDO, and H 22:55 XLM, WLFI, NEAR, ICP, ARB, and ZRO 27:12 DEXE, PENGU, MON, and AERO 31:17 DOGE, HYPE, XMR, ALGO, MORPHO, and viewer picks 34:22 Final outlook for May and June

Aaron Dishner

13,239 次观看 • 4 个月前

Hey guys, welcome back. BTC closed inside of the TBO cloud, up 1.66% on Friday, my third green day in a row, the first close inside since it fell out back on May 26. My macro trend is still bearish since all four TBO lines point down, but I'm expecting Bitcoin to stay bullish through July after catching a bullish OBV cross above the 21SMA on Thursday. I'm watching for this week's candle to close above last week's high at 65,622, which is a tall order, but Bitcoin's RSI at 59.69 tells me there's still room to run before overbought. Ethereum had a fantastic day too, closing up 3.3% and shooting up 14% since Wednesday, with a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly and a bullish RSI reset that I like a lot, targeting around 2,080. Solana dropped another 1.9% and remains in bearish consolidation, which I actually see as healthy given Bitcoin dominance staying bearish, since that's keeping alts strong. My total altcoin cap chart closed inside the cloud with a bullish OBV cross too, which I think marks the start of a regime shift, though I'm still telling anyone on a DCA strategy to keep taking profits since we're in a macro bear market overall. On the TradFi side, I saw a bearish TBO reversal print on Thursday plus a wick into the cloud, so I'm on the fence there, watching the Dixie closely since a break above 102 would be real trouble. The Nikkei and KOSPI both bounced, oil stayed oversold for a tenth straight bar, and gold and silver both printed TBO reversal signs that I'm watching for a tag of the fast line before I'd consider taking profit or flipping short. For my picks, I bought Bitcoin cash on its RSI reset, I'm watching Solana, Farcoin, and Whiff for pullback entries, and I flagged Morpho and Aerodrome as showing early bearish reversal signs worth watching this weekend. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin closes inside the TBO cloud 02:46 Ethereum strength and RSI room 04:53 Bitcoin dominance and altcoin breadth 06:53 TradFi setup, Dixie, and USDJPY 09:27 Nikkei, KOSPI, oil, gold, and silver 12:01 Better Traders resources and bot trading 14:17 Kraken, prop trading, Phemex, and AFX 16:20 Bitcoin Cash, Solana, and TBO close shorts 18:30 XRP, SUI, PEPE, VVV, and LAB warnings 20:56 XLM, ALLO, GWEI, FAI, and Fetch 23:21 Micron and MELI pullback setups
25:51

Hey guys, welcome back. BTC closed inside of the TBO cloud, up 1.66% on Friday, my third green day in a row, the first close inside since it fell out back on May 26. My macro trend is still bearish since all four TBO lines point down, but I'm expecting Bitcoin to stay bullish through July after catching a bullish OBV cross above the 21SMA on Thursday. I'm watching for this week's candle to close above last week's high at 65,622, which is a tall order, but Bitcoin's RSI at 59.69 tells me there's still room to run before overbought. Ethereum had a fantastic day too, closing up 3.3% and shooting up 14% since Wednesday, with a bullish engulfing candle on the weekly and a bullish RSI reset that I like a lot, targeting around 2,080. Solana dropped another 1.9% and remains in bearish consolidation, which I actually see as healthy given Bitcoin dominance staying bearish, since that's keeping alts strong. My total altcoin cap chart closed inside the cloud with a bullish OBV cross too, which I think marks the start of a regime shift, though I'm still telling anyone on a DCA strategy to keep taking profits since we're in a macro bear market overall. On the TradFi side, I saw a bearish TBO reversal print on Thursday plus a wick into the cloud, so I'm on the fence there, watching the Dixie closely since a break above 102 would be real trouble. The Nikkei and KOSPI both bounced, oil stayed oversold for a tenth straight bar, and gold and silver both printed TBO reversal signs that I'm watching for a tag of the fast line before I'd consider taking profit or flipping short. For my picks, I bought Bitcoin cash on its RSI reset, I'm watching Solana, Farcoin, and Whiff for pullback entries, and I flagged Morpho and Aerodrome as showing early bearish reversal signs worth watching this weekend. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin closes inside the TBO cloud 02:46 Ethereum strength and RSI room 04:53 Bitcoin dominance and altcoin breadth 06:53 TradFi setup, Dixie, and USDJPY 09:27 Nikkei, KOSPI, oil, gold, and silver 12:01 Better Traders resources and bot trading 14:17 Kraken, prop trading, Phemex, and AFX 16:20 Bitcoin Cash, Solana, and TBO close shorts 18:30 XRP, SUI, PEPE, VVV, and LAB warnings 20:56 XLM, ALLO, GWEI, FAI, and Fetch 23:21 Micron and MELI pullback setups

Aaron Dishner

11,900 次观看 • 2 个月前

Bitcoin's 26% rebound from roughly $63,000 to above $81,000 is impressive, but I think the more important signal is the collapse in Combined Stablecoin Dominance. Its daily break below support, deeply oversold RSI, and 17.5% weekly decline resemble January 2023 closely enough to suggest the market may have found a bottom six to eight weeks earlier than I expected. I am not treating that as permission to ignore downside risk. BTC is pressing into former support around $82,000 to $82,850, and a rejection there would keep the bear-flag scenario alive. Realized price remains below $53,000, a $50,000 pullback still fits the structure, and $72,000 is the next line I would watch if the market retreats. I am starting to pivot from reflexively shorting strength toward scaling into high-quality setups, but I still want confirmation and patience. The market is showing real bottoming signals, yet the shallow structure, the risk of a pullback, and the way a small Ethereum move briefly punished alts all argue against reckless dumpster diving. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin Bottom Signals Shift The Thesis 03:09 Stablecoin Dominance Confirms 2023 Parallels 06:17 Oversold Signals Strengthen The Bottom Case 09:55 Bitcoin's 26% Rebound Signals Momentum 13:03 Realized Price Still Defines Downside Risk 16:16 Bitcoin Breaks $82,850 To Shift Structure 19:23 Shallow Bottoming Signals Need Confirmation 22:34 Bitcoin Scaling Awaits The Pullback 25:38 Dumpster Diving Still Carries Extreme Risk 28:38 Ethereum Volatility Exposes Altcoin Fragility 🎲 Play Moonin Papa BINGO with today's video: 💹 Take Your Trading to the Next Level! 💰 Sign up & Trade on Bitunix 👉 💪 Join the Better Traders Club for indicators, tools, and community: 📚 Learn Proven Crypto Strategies: Master bot trading, scalping, day trading, and swing trading with our courses: 🌐 Stay Connected: Follow me for market updates and insights across platforms:
32:51

Bitcoin's 26% rebound from roughly $63,000 to above $81,000 is impressive, but I think the more important signal is the collapse in Combined Stablecoin Dominance. Its daily break below support, deeply oversold RSI, and 17.5% weekly decline resemble January 2023 closely enough to suggest the market may have found a bottom six to eight weeks earlier than I expected. I am not treating that as permission to ignore downside risk. BTC is pressing into former support around $82,000 to $82,850, and a rejection there would keep the bear-flag scenario alive. Realized price remains below $53,000, a $50,000 pullback still fits the structure, and $72,000 is the next line I would watch if the market retreats. I am starting to pivot from reflexively shorting strength toward scaling into high-quality setups, but I still want confirmation and patience. The market is showing real bottoming signals, yet the shallow structure, the risk of a pullback, and the way a small Ethereum move briefly punished alts all argue against reckless dumpster diving. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin Bottom Signals Shift The Thesis 03:09 Stablecoin Dominance Confirms 2023 Parallels 06:17 Oversold Signals Strengthen The Bottom Case 09:55 Bitcoin's 26% Rebound Signals Momentum 13:03 Realized Price Still Defines Downside Risk 16:16 Bitcoin Breaks $82,850 To Shift Structure 19:23 Shallow Bottoming Signals Need Confirmation 22:34 Bitcoin Scaling Awaits The Pullback 25:38 Dumpster Diving Still Carries Extreme Risk 28:38 Ethereum Volatility Exposes Altcoin Fragility 🎲 Play Moonin Papa BINGO with today's video: 💹 Take Your Trading to the Next Level! 💰 Sign up & Trade on Bitunix 👉 💪 Join the Better Traders Club for indicators, tools, and community: 📚 Learn Proven Crypto Strategies: Master bot trading, scalping, day trading, and swing trading with our courses: 🌐 Stay Connected: Follow me for market updates and insights across platforms:

Aaron Dishner

14,372 次观看 • 4 天前

BTC just confirmed the bearish divergence I have been waiting for, and for me that changes the whole map. With BTC now joining the TOTALES warning, I am no longer looking at this as a normal pullback. I think the market is setting up for a much deeper move over the next two months, and that is why I am treating any short term bounce as noise unless price can reclaim key levels with real strength. ETH is starting to crack in the same way. It has not printed the same daily divergence as BTC yet, but the structure is weakening, RSI broke support, and price is losing the fast line. Stablecoin dominance keeps pressing higher, TOTALES has already rolled over, and that combination still points to broad market weakness instead of a healthy reset. TradFi is not helping the bulls either. DXY looks ready for another push higher, USDJPY is back in the danger zone, and if Japan is forced into another intervention cycle the Nikkei, U.S. equities, and crypto could all get hit together again. At the same time, WTI looks overextended after filling its gap, while gold and silver are still chopping without giving me a strong risk-on signal. For today’s picks, I am still leaning toward bearish setups over heroic longs. XRP, QNT, ICP, NEAR, TRUMP, DCR, RENDER, ATOM, CHZ, and MORPHO all still look vulnerable if this broader risk-off move keeps building. A few names like DOGE, SKY, and some smaller caps can still bounce, but for me the bigger message today is simple: the warning signs are stacking up, and I would rather stay patient and defensive than fight the trend. 00:00 BTC confirms the bearish divergence 03:03 ETH weakness and stablecoin dominance 05:25 TOTALES breakdown and market-wide risk 06:54 DXY, USDJPY, and Japan intervention risk 13:41 WTI, gold, and silver check-in 20:12 Altcoin picks and short-side setups
49:12

BTC just confirmed the bearish divergence I have been waiting for, and for me that changes the whole map. With BTC now joining the TOTALES warning, I am no longer looking at this as a normal pullback. I think the market is setting up for a much deeper move over the next two months, and that is why I am treating any short term bounce as noise unless price can reclaim key levels with real strength. ETH is starting to crack in the same way. It has not printed the same daily divergence as BTC yet, but the structure is weakening, RSI broke support, and price is losing the fast line. Stablecoin dominance keeps pressing higher, TOTALES has already rolled over, and that combination still points to broad market weakness instead of a healthy reset. TradFi is not helping the bulls either. DXY looks ready for another push higher, USDJPY is back in the danger zone, and if Japan is forced into another intervention cycle the Nikkei, U.S. equities, and crypto could all get hit together again. At the same time, WTI looks overextended after filling its gap, while gold and silver are still chopping without giving me a strong risk-on signal. For today’s picks, I am still leaning toward bearish setups over heroic longs. XRP, QNT, ICP, NEAR, TRUMP, DCR, RENDER, ATOM, CHZ, and MORPHO all still look vulnerable if this broader risk-off move keeps building. A few names like DOGE, SKY, and some smaller caps can still bounce, but for me the bigger message today is simple: the warning signs are stacking up, and I would rather stay patient and defensive than fight the trend. 00:00 BTC confirms the bearish divergence 03:03 ETH weakness and stablecoin dominance 05:25 TOTALES breakdown and market-wide risk 06:54 DXY, USDJPY, and Japan intervention risk 13:41 WTI, gold, and silver check-in 20:12 Altcoin picks and short-side setups

Aaron Dishner

19,582 次观看 • 4 个月前

BTC closed green again on Thursday, but I still read this market as caution, not confidence. The lower wick to $73,309 helped the candle, but daily RSI pushed overbought at 70.76 while printing lower highs than both April 11 and March 16. That keeps BTC pinned under what I’m now calling iron fortress resistance, while spaghetti support looks increasingly fragile. On the 4-hour, I still do not see the clean bearish reversal signal I would normally want, and that is exactly why this price action feels so weird to me. Price looks propped up, not strong. Ethereum is showing the same kind of weakness. ETH has now spent five straight days failing to close above TBO resistance at 23.76, and I still think a pullback toward the Fast line near 22.26 makes more sense than a clean breakout. At the same time, BTC dominance dropped hard, stablecoin dominance also moved lower, and alts exploded across the board. Normally that would sound bullish, but this move looks too aggressive and too suspicious for me to trust. OTHERS, TOTALE50, and TOTALE100 all ripped higher in a way that feels more like rotation, short squeezing, or outright exit-pump behavior than healthy trend continuation. TradFi is not making me feel any safer either. DXY confirmed a pivot low and now looks ready to move higher toward the open gap, which would add more pressure on USDJPY and keep macro conditions hostile. ES futures printed a fresh all-time high, the Nikkei also pushed higher, and Tesla ripped, but volume has been fading on the move, which makes the rally look unstable to me. Oil still has an upside gap that may need filling, gold is chopping inside the cloud, and uranium just broke out above its bull flag. On my watchlist, I’m focused on the charts that pumped hardest into resistance and now look the most vulnerable if this move fades, including XRP, BNB, SOL, LINK, SUI, ENA, LDO, INJ, FIL, AAVE, PENGU, PUMP, VIRTUAL, ADA, APT, HYPE, Binance Life, RAVE, Monad, Render, CHZ, XLM, SIREN, CFX, ZBCN, PIPPIN, and WAL. My main takeaway today is simple: this market is moving in a very weird way, and in a bear market I would rather respect the macro trend and take profit on suspicious pumps than assume this is the start of a clean breakout.
50:35

BTC closed green again on Thursday, but I still read this market as caution, not confidence. The lower wick to $73,309 helped the candle, but daily RSI pushed overbought at 70.76 while printing lower highs than both April 11 and March 16. That keeps BTC pinned under what I’m now calling iron fortress resistance, while spaghetti support looks increasingly fragile. On the 4-hour, I still do not see the clean bearish reversal signal I would normally want, and that is exactly why this price action feels so weird to me. Price looks propped up, not strong. Ethereum is showing the same kind of weakness. ETH has now spent five straight days failing to close above TBO resistance at 23.76, and I still think a pullback toward the Fast line near 22.26 makes more sense than a clean breakout. At the same time, BTC dominance dropped hard, stablecoin dominance also moved lower, and alts exploded across the board. Normally that would sound bullish, but this move looks too aggressive and too suspicious for me to trust. OTHERS, TOTALE50, and TOTALE100 all ripped higher in a way that feels more like rotation, short squeezing, or outright exit-pump behavior than healthy trend continuation. TradFi is not making me feel any safer either. DXY confirmed a pivot low and now looks ready to move higher toward the open gap, which would add more pressure on USDJPY and keep macro conditions hostile. ES futures printed a fresh all-time high, the Nikkei also pushed higher, and Tesla ripped, but volume has been fading on the move, which makes the rally look unstable to me. Oil still has an upside gap that may need filling, gold is chopping inside the cloud, and uranium just broke out above its bull flag. On my watchlist, I’m focused on the charts that pumped hardest into resistance and now look the most vulnerable if this move fades, including XRP, BNB, SOL, LINK, SUI, ENA, LDO, INJ, FIL, AAVE, PENGU, PUMP, VIRTUAL, ADA, APT, HYPE, Binance Life, RAVE, Monad, Render, CHZ, XLM, SIREN, CFX, ZBCN, PIPPIN, and WAL. My main takeaway today is simple: this market is moving in a very weird way, and in a bear market I would rather respect the macro trend and take profit on suspicious pumps than assume this is the start of a clean breakout.

Aaron Dishner

13,849 次观看 • 4 个月前

BTC finally took out the February 6 low at 60K and wicked to 59,130, which was the support target I have been waiting on. The short-term supports are done, the daily chart confirmed another TBO breakdown, and the next levels I care about are TBO support near 53K, then the artificial support target around 49K, with 38,555 still lower if the final liquidation dump gets spicy. ETH dropped 10.58%, printed an extremely low daily RSI, and still has 1,385 and 1,073 as the major downside targets I am watching. TOTALES confirmed another TBO breakdown and the market still needs more fear, even though the fear is finally getting interesting. Stablecoin dominance is right at the 13% accumulation trigger, but that does not mean ape into everything - it means start thinking in scale-in zones and keep dry powder in case stablecoin dominance rips toward 17%-18%. BTC dominance rising while BTC dumps is constructive for long-term confidence, but OTHERS, OTHERS/BTC, TOTALE50 and TOTALE100 all still look like they want lower. TradFi finally joined the risk-off party too: DXY pushed back toward 100, USDJPY is in trouble, S&P futures dropped 2.9%, the Dow and Nasdaq printed bearish divergence signals, NVDA and TSLA dumped, VIX ripped almost 40%, gold fell 3.29%, silver dropped 8.3%, and uranium gave back the fast-line move. My picks were mostly a mix of relative strength and caution. HYPE is still technically bullish but risky in this BTC environment, with 39.55 the real support area I care about, DEXE and VVV are still holding up better than most, XRP likely wants the fair value gap near 0.60, SOL is still tracking toward the bigger downside targets, and DOGE, LINK, AVAX, SUI, SHIB, MNT, DOT, PEPE, AAVE, ETC, WLD, APT, BONK and others are showing breakdown pressure. Viewer picks: FET is one AI chart I still want to watch for future accumulation, TAO lost support, HOME is too hot to trust after the pump, NBIS and OKTA have bearish risk, AAPL is still holding up, PATH had a clean bounce into rejection, and ADBE still looks weak. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 BTC loses 60K and targets 49K 08:55 ETH breakdown, RSI panic and downside targets 13:12 Total market cap, stablecoin dominance and alt dominance 18:24 TradFi risk-off, DXY, USDJPY and indices 23:17 Gold, silver, copper and uranium 25:30 TBO, club, journal and trading mindset 28:21 My picks: HYPE, DEXE and VVV 31:22 Major alt breakdowns: DOGE, LINK, AVAX, SUI and more 37:25 Viewer picks: FET, TAO, HOME, NBIS, OKTA, AAPL, PATH and ADBE 41:31 HYPE deep dive preview and wrap-up
42:31

BTC finally took out the February 6 low at 60K and wicked to 59,130, which was the support target I have been waiting on. The short-term supports are done, the daily chart confirmed another TBO breakdown, and the next levels I care about are TBO support near 53K, then the artificial support target around 49K, with 38,555 still lower if the final liquidation dump gets spicy. ETH dropped 10.58%, printed an extremely low daily RSI, and still has 1,385 and 1,073 as the major downside targets I am watching. TOTALES confirmed another TBO breakdown and the market still needs more fear, even though the fear is finally getting interesting. Stablecoin dominance is right at the 13% accumulation trigger, but that does not mean ape into everything - it means start thinking in scale-in zones and keep dry powder in case stablecoin dominance rips toward 17%-18%. BTC dominance rising while BTC dumps is constructive for long-term confidence, but OTHERS, OTHERS/BTC, TOTALE50 and TOTALE100 all still look like they want lower. TradFi finally joined the risk-off party too: DXY pushed back toward 100, USDJPY is in trouble, S&P futures dropped 2.9%, the Dow and Nasdaq printed bearish divergence signals, NVDA and TSLA dumped, VIX ripped almost 40%, gold fell 3.29%, silver dropped 8.3%, and uranium gave back the fast-line move. My picks were mostly a mix of relative strength and caution. HYPE is still technically bullish but risky in this BTC environment, with 39.55 the real support area I care about, DEXE and VVV are still holding up better than most, XRP likely wants the fair value gap near 0.60, SOL is still tracking toward the bigger downside targets, and DOGE, LINK, AVAX, SUI, SHIB, MNT, DOT, PEPE, AAVE, ETC, WLD, APT, BONK and others are showing breakdown pressure. Viewer picks: FET is one AI chart I still want to watch for future accumulation, TAO lost support, HOME is too hot to trust after the pump, NBIS and OKTA have bearish risk, AAPL is still holding up, PATH had a clean bounce into rejection, and ADBE still looks weak. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 BTC loses 60K and targets 49K 08:55 ETH breakdown, RSI panic and downside targets 13:12 Total market cap, stablecoin dominance and alt dominance 18:24 TradFi risk-off, DXY, USDJPY and indices 23:17 Gold, silver, copper and uranium 25:30 TBO, club, journal and trading mindset 28:21 My picks: HYPE, DEXE and VVV 31:22 Major alt breakdowns: DOGE, LINK, AVAX, SUI and more 37:25 Viewer picks: FET, TAO, HOME, NBIS, OKTA, AAPL, PATH and ADBE 41:31 HYPE deep dive preview and wrap-up

Aaron Dishner

63,224 次观看 • 2 个月前

BTC is showing the textbook signs of a pivot high. RSI confirmed overbought and reversed in a single day - the last time we saw a one-and-done RSI move like this was back in January before a meaningful pullback. OBV's moving average is still pointing up, which keeps the door open for one more push to around $77K, but the bear flag has been fulfilled. Higher lows and higher highs are done. We can go home. If BTC does put in a higher high from here, I'd expect to see a lower high on RSI - that would just reinforce the setup. Support sits around $65K-$67K, and based on the pace of the last drawdown, something like that by end of weekend isn't unreasonable. Ethereum held up stronger than BTC this week, with RSI staying overbought across three days - Sunday at 73, Monday at 84, Tuesday at 76. ETHBTC is right at resistance. The multiple factor effect means whatever BTC does, ETH does 1.5x to 2x. Ethereum could still push higher, but we're deep into risky territory. Stablecoin dominance flipped green after eight consecutive red days. RSI confirmed oversold on Monday. The trend is starting to shift, and when this chart pumps it typically corresponds to selling pressure across crypto. DXY closed below support from Friday's push after going overbought on the 13th. RSI cracked below 61.78. A pullback to 98.708 is on the table, which should bring some relief to the euro and yen. The yen is still dangerously overbought - second TBT bearish divergence now printing on the weekly. If it keeps pushing up, the Bank of Japan's hand gets forced. We all know what happened last time that went too far. VIX is still inside the rejection zone it's been in since March 2023. Fear hasn't left the building. S&P futures have a TBO close long on the weekly - same pattern that printed before a 16% drop. NVIDIA's daily cloud is now compressed to under 1%. When the cloud gets that tight, explosive moves follow - not necessarily up. On the picks side: XRP had a real volume spike and an 8.8% move after 4H TBO breakouts, but I'm not convinced the momentum holds. Solana's OBV moving average is genuinely bullish - one more leg is possible. Tron is the biggest surprise - perfect three-in-a-row TBO breakout cluster and a 4% move, which for Tron is wild. HYPE printed a second TBO breakout with RSI at 82.34 - the level to beat is 83.86. Kaspa RSI hit 91.5 after a 9% move - that's danger territory. TAO has been overbought on the daily RSI since March 11th - day eight. OBV is genuinely bullish but the warning signs are piling up. Walrus protocol jumped 24% out of nowhere - probably news related and likely AI adjacent. Pippin is down 31% on Tuesday's close. Pi Network is now down 39% from its high after a textbook RSI divergence setup played out exactly as expected. Bitcoin Cash printed a TBT bearish divergence. Render, Morpho, Fetch AI, Syrup all showing exhaustion signals on the 4H.
48:04

BTC is showing the textbook signs of a pivot high. RSI confirmed overbought and reversed in a single day - the last time we saw a one-and-done RSI move like this was back in January before a meaningful pullback. OBV's moving average is still pointing up, which keeps the door open for one more push to around $77K, but the bear flag has been fulfilled. Higher lows and higher highs are done. We can go home. If BTC does put in a higher high from here, I'd expect to see a lower high on RSI - that would just reinforce the setup. Support sits around $65K-$67K, and based on the pace of the last drawdown, something like that by end of weekend isn't unreasonable. Ethereum held up stronger than BTC this week, with RSI staying overbought across three days - Sunday at 73, Monday at 84, Tuesday at 76. ETHBTC is right at resistance. The multiple factor effect means whatever BTC does, ETH does 1.5x to 2x. Ethereum could still push higher, but we're deep into risky territory. Stablecoin dominance flipped green after eight consecutive red days. RSI confirmed oversold on Monday. The trend is starting to shift, and when this chart pumps it typically corresponds to selling pressure across crypto. DXY closed below support from Friday's push after going overbought on the 13th. RSI cracked below 61.78. A pullback to 98.708 is on the table, which should bring some relief to the euro and yen. The yen is still dangerously overbought - second TBT bearish divergence now printing on the weekly. If it keeps pushing up, the Bank of Japan's hand gets forced. We all know what happened last time that went too far. VIX is still inside the rejection zone it's been in since March 2023. Fear hasn't left the building. S&P futures have a TBO close long on the weekly - same pattern that printed before a 16% drop. NVIDIA's daily cloud is now compressed to under 1%. When the cloud gets that tight, explosive moves follow - not necessarily up. On the picks side: XRP had a real volume spike and an 8.8% move after 4H TBO breakouts, but I'm not convinced the momentum holds. Solana's OBV moving average is genuinely bullish - one more leg is possible. Tron is the biggest surprise - perfect three-in-a-row TBO breakout cluster and a 4% move, which for Tron is wild. HYPE printed a second TBO breakout with RSI at 82.34 - the level to beat is 83.86. Kaspa RSI hit 91.5 after a 9% move - that's danger territory. TAO has been overbought on the daily RSI since March 11th - day eight. OBV is genuinely bullish but the warning signs are piling up. Walrus protocol jumped 24% out of nowhere - probably news related and likely AI adjacent. Pippin is down 31% on Tuesday's close. Pi Network is now down 39% from its high after a textbook RSI divergence setup played out exactly as expected. Bitcoin Cash printed a TBT bearish divergence. Render, Morpho, Fetch AI, Syrup all showing exhaustion signals on the 4H.

Aaron Dishner

16,640 次观看 • 5 个月前

WOW! Bitcoin not only broke above overhead resistance in our bull flag, it also took out the next three resistance fan levels! This is a HUGE BULLISH signal for Bitcoin and crypto. Uptober is definitely here! Now, the reality of this move is that the combined stablecoin dominance chart is at critical short term support. If BTC has a slight pullback today, that will cause stablecoin dominance to bounce off of support, which will validate that level of support and cause a wider market pullback (even though it should just be minor). Secondly, the TOTALES daily chart is also right at resistance today. If it can break ABOVE resistance, then we'll see combined stablecoin dominance DROP LOWER, which is EXACTLY what we want to see in order for more bullish continuation. Lots of charts are having incredible TBO Breakouts right now, showing me that there is more bullish explosive upside continuation possible for IMX, ZEC, SNX and FLR. ADA, APT, QNT and HNT all have valid TBO Close Shorts, which are my FAVORITE bullish reversal signals. BCH, LTC, AAVE, MNT, XDC and PUMP all look massively bullish to me. NEAR and SOL both "closed" their TBO Close Longs, but I'm still avoiding NEAR for now. ALPINE had a MASSIVE pump and dump, losing over 70% yesterday 💀 BLUE, DASH, XRP, XLM, SUI, SHIB, XMR, SPX6900 and S are all worth watching closely today too. But my main concern lies with the fact that several "OG" coins like DASH, ZEC, LTC and XMR are pumping- which is typically a sign that we're at the start of an ALT rally. While this is great news, I'm cautiously watching these signs, and so should you!
19:48

WOW! Bitcoin not only broke above overhead resistance in our bull flag, it also took out the next three resistance fan levels! This is a HUGE BULLISH signal for Bitcoin and crypto. Uptober is definitely here! Now, the reality of this move is that the combined stablecoin dominance chart is at critical short term support. If BTC has a slight pullback today, that will cause stablecoin dominance to bounce off of support, which will validate that level of support and cause a wider market pullback (even though it should just be minor). Secondly, the TOTALES daily chart is also right at resistance today. If it can break ABOVE resistance, then we'll see combined stablecoin dominance DROP LOWER, which is EXACTLY what we want to see in order for more bullish continuation. Lots of charts are having incredible TBO Breakouts right now, showing me that there is more bullish explosive upside continuation possible for IMX, ZEC, SNX and FLR. ADA, APT, QNT and HNT all have valid TBO Close Shorts, which are my FAVORITE bullish reversal signals. BCH, LTC, AAVE, MNT, XDC and PUMP all look massively bullish to me. NEAR and SOL both "closed" their TBO Close Longs, but I'm still avoiding NEAR for now. ALPINE had a MASSIVE pump and dump, losing over 70% yesterday 💀 BLUE, DASH, XRP, XLM, SUI, SHIB, XMR, SPX6900 and S are all worth watching closely today too. But my main concern lies with the fact that several "OG" coins like DASH, ZEC, LTC and XMR are pumping- which is typically a sign that we're at the start of an ALT rally. While this is great news, I'm cautiously watching these signs, and so should you!

Aaron Dishner

64,684 次观看 • 11 个月前

Bitcoin opened July with a fresh flush into the 57K area, but I am still treating this as a possible short-term bounce month rather than a clean new bull leg. July has historically been strong for Bitcoin in bottom-year contexts, the Better Crypto Calendar just nailed the ugly June close, and BTC/ETH are showing the kind of oversold and divergence conditions that can produce a relief rally. The key warning is that August and September are historically much rougher, so if July gives us upside, I want profits protected instead of assuming the move lasts forever. The macro backdrop is still messy. DXY remains strong bullish, S&P futures and the major equity indexes are trying to bounce, and the Japanese yen is the big risk signal today with USD/JPY pushing into levels not seen since the 1980s. That makes the title question important: Bitcoin can bounce this July, but a weak yen, possible intervention, and unstable TradFi signals mean I do not want to ignore the broader pressure. In the watchlist section I cover my crypto picks, your crypto picks, and the requested stock names with the same theme running through most of them: July can create sharp oversold bounces, but many charts are still bearish or only tactical long setups. I am looking for fast-line reactions, oversold resets, DCA-style opportunities, and places to scale out quickly if the bounce shows up, especially with August and September still sitting in the background. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin opens July with a flush and seasonality setup 03:02 Why August and September still matter 06:18 ETH, stablecoin dominance, and BTC dominance 10:41 DXY, weak yen, and TradFi warning signs 13:14 S&P futures, stocks, oil, gold, and metals 17:30 Better Traders Club, TBO, Journal, Kraken, Phemex, and AFX 22:36 My picks: LIT, SOL, AAVE, WIF, MORPHO, DEXE, and bearish updates 31:18 Your picks: ACN, VIRTUAL, HYPE, CRO, JTO, GRASS, PUMP, NAORIS, and FLUX 38:22 Stock picks: Exxon Mobil, Rocket Lab, CoreWeave, FuelCell, Salesforce, Robinhood, and Netflix 43:51 Bitcoin lottery miner video preview
44:29

Bitcoin opened July with a fresh flush into the 57K area, but I am still treating this as a possible short-term bounce month rather than a clean new bull leg. July has historically been strong for Bitcoin in bottom-year contexts, the Better Crypto Calendar just nailed the ugly June close, and BTC/ETH are showing the kind of oversold and divergence conditions that can produce a relief rally. The key warning is that August and September are historically much rougher, so if July gives us upside, I want profits protected instead of assuming the move lasts forever. The macro backdrop is still messy. DXY remains strong bullish, S&P futures and the major equity indexes are trying to bounce, and the Japanese yen is the big risk signal today with USD/JPY pushing into levels not seen since the 1980s. That makes the title question important: Bitcoin can bounce this July, but a weak yen, possible intervention, and unstable TradFi signals mean I do not want to ignore the broader pressure. In the watchlist section I cover my crypto picks, your crypto picks, and the requested stock names with the same theme running through most of them: July can create sharp oversold bounces, but many charts are still bearish or only tactical long setups. I am looking for fast-line reactions, oversold resets, DCA-style opportunities, and places to scale out quickly if the bounce shows up, especially with August and September still sitting in the background. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 Bitcoin opens July with a flush and seasonality setup 03:02 Why August and September still matter 06:18 ETH, stablecoin dominance, and BTC dominance 10:41 DXY, weak yen, and TradFi warning signs 13:14 S&P futures, stocks, oil, gold, and metals 17:30 Better Traders Club, TBO, Journal, Kraken, Phemex, and AFX 22:36 My picks: LIT, SOL, AAVE, WIF, MORPHO, DEXE, and bearish updates 31:18 Your picks: ACN, VIRTUAL, HYPE, CRO, JTO, GRASS, PUMP, NAORIS, and FLUX 38:22 Stock picks: Exxon Mobil, Rocket Lab, CoreWeave, FuelCell, Salesforce, Robinhood, and Netflix 43:51 Bitcoin lottery miner video preview

Aaron Dishner

12,100 次观看 • 2 个月前

Bitcoin attempted a bounce on Sunday, wicking 5.8% up to 64,234, but the move stalled directly at the TBO line that flipped from support to resistance after Friday's break below 60,000. In today's update, I explain why this still looks more like a dead cat bounce than a real reversal: Friday's 3.3 billion volume was far below the capitulation levels I want to see at prior cycle lows, Sunday did not print a bullish engulfing candle, and the same daily RSI reset pattern showed up on May 30th at 73K right before a 20% collapse followed. I also walk through the TradFi pressure that hit markets on Friday, including the DXY surge, S&P futures down 2.9%, the VIX spiking 39%, and gold dropping 3.3% in the same session. The Japanese yen is drifting back toward dangerous territory near 160.34, the Nikkei opened Monday already down 3.7%, and stablecoin dominance nearly tagged 13% before pulling back on the Sunday bounce. If stablecoin dominance and BTC dominance both keep pushing higher, I expect others dominance and alts to take the bigger hit. I finish with a full coin review across my picks list, including BIAN, RAVE, XRP, HYPE, LINK, ZEC, BEAT, TAU, SIREN, DEXE, INJ, and PIPPIN, followed by bearish reads on SOL, ADA, SUI, PEPE, APT, ARB, BONK, CHZ, TON, NEAR, TRUMP, and VVV. Viewer picks include AKT, ENA, WLD, KAS, SUPRA, and CRO, with stock coverage wrapping on PFGC, TWST, Nokia, DSX, ARM, CRM, MOD, NASA, CEPT, and RDW. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 BTC dead cat bounce and TBO resistance 03:24 Daily RSI reset and what it actually signals 06:44 Dead cat bounce explained and BTC downside targets 12:08 Ethereum and stablecoin dominance breakdown 16:11 TradFi: DXY, Euro, Yen, S&P Futures, VIX 19:09 Oil, Nikkei, Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Uranium 27:59 Aaron's picks: BIAN, RAVE, XRP, HYPE, LINK, ZEC 33:48 BEAT, TAU, SIREN, DEXE, INJ, and PIPPIN 37:30 Bearish alts: SOL, ADA, SUI, PEPE, APT, ARB, BONK, CHZ 40:17 TON, NEAR, TRUMP, VIRTUALS, and VVV 43:38 Viewer picks: AKT, ENA, WLD, KAS, SUPRA, CRO 45:55 Stock picks: PFGC, TWST, Nokia, DSX, ARM, CRM, MOD, NASA, CEPT, RDW
51:00

Bitcoin attempted a bounce on Sunday, wicking 5.8% up to 64,234, but the move stalled directly at the TBO line that flipped from support to resistance after Friday's break below 60,000. In today's update, I explain why this still looks more like a dead cat bounce than a real reversal: Friday's 3.3 billion volume was far below the capitulation levels I want to see at prior cycle lows, Sunday did not print a bullish engulfing candle, and the same daily RSI reset pattern showed up on May 30th at 73K right before a 20% collapse followed. I also walk through the TradFi pressure that hit markets on Friday, including the DXY surge, S&P futures down 2.9%, the VIX spiking 39%, and gold dropping 3.3% in the same session. The Japanese yen is drifting back toward dangerous territory near 160.34, the Nikkei opened Monday already down 3.7%, and stablecoin dominance nearly tagged 13% before pulling back on the Sunday bounce. If stablecoin dominance and BTC dominance both keep pushing higher, I expect others dominance and alts to take the bigger hit. I finish with a full coin review across my picks list, including BIAN, RAVE, XRP, HYPE, LINK, ZEC, BEAT, TAU, SIREN, DEXE, INJ, and PIPPIN, followed by bearish reads on SOL, ADA, SUI, PEPE, APT, ARB, BONK, CHZ, TON, NEAR, TRUMP, and VVV. Viewer picks include AKT, ENA, WLD, KAS, SUPRA, and CRO, with stock coverage wrapping on PFGC, TWST, Nokia, DSX, ARM, CRM, MOD, NASA, CEPT, and RDW. CHAPTER MARKERS 00:00 BTC dead cat bounce and TBO resistance 03:24 Daily RSI reset and what it actually signals 06:44 Dead cat bounce explained and BTC downside targets 12:08 Ethereum and stablecoin dominance breakdown 16:11 TradFi: DXY, Euro, Yen, S&P Futures, VIX 19:09 Oil, Nikkei, Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Uranium 27:59 Aaron's picks: BIAN, RAVE, XRP, HYPE, LINK, ZEC 33:48 BEAT, TAU, SIREN, DEXE, INJ, and PIPPIN 37:30 Bearish alts: SOL, ADA, SUI, PEPE, APT, ARB, BONK, CHZ 40:17 TON, NEAR, TRUMP, VIRTUALS, and VVV 43:38 Viewer picks: AKT, ENA, WLD, KAS, SUPRA, CRO 45:55 Stock picks: PFGC, TWST, Nokia, DSX, ARM, CRM, MOD, NASA, CEPT, RDW

Aaron Dishner

38,004 次观看 • 2 个月前

BTC is down over 3.5% on Wednesday's daily candle close. Eight green candles in a row was manipulation. We had our pivot high on March 17th - the bear flag has resolved. Next pivot low is likely $65K-$67K. After that, the support break, retest as resistance, and we go lower. Based on previous drawdowns of 84% and 77%, a 70% drop from $126K lands around $37K-$38,555 - lining up with our artificial supports. Bear markets have lasted 52-54 weeks. We're still a couple of months out. RSI confirmed the reversal with a lower high at 76.83 versus January's 82.07. BTC wicked into the fast line and risks closing back below the cloud - that flips us from bullish consolidation back to strong bearish. ETH took a 5% close with RSI reset from 84 Monday to 57 Wednesday. ETHBTC is overbought at resistance - underperformance trade stays on. Stablecoin dominance RSI reset below 23.33 on Monday. Check please. DXY hit 100.314 and RSI flipped - dollar may be weakening, which should help stocks. The yen is the real danger: second TBO breakout on Wednesday, confirmed bearish divergence. If it keeps weakening, it tanks everything. VIX back in the rejection zone. S&P, Dow, Nasdaq all still strong bearish. Gold dumped 3% and printed a TBO close long in bearish consolidation - choppy May 2025 replay. Silver has two 4H TBO breakdowns. Copper confirmed a TBO open short. HYPE, Kaspa, QNT, Fartcoin, River all have TBO breakouts - Kaspa the cleanest setup, up 25%. BNB, PEPE, Bonk, and Fluid pulled back to the fast line after TBO close shorts Sunday - that's the entry window. TAO is overbought for day nine with two TBT bearish divergences. Fetch short still open. Pippin down 75% on the week. Merlin down 12% with a TBO breakdown cluster. XRP, Solana, Doge, Render, Trump, Syrup, and Zero all have 4H TBO close longs. Siren up 94% off the springboard bounce. Monero working on a second weekly TBO close long - very bearish. SoFi showing bullish divergence on the daily. Circle pushed above the 0.5 fib - next target $150.88. Western Digital TBO resistance jumped from $294 to $319 - strong bullish.
47:20

BTC is down over 3.5% on Wednesday's daily candle close. Eight green candles in a row was manipulation. We had our pivot high on March 17th - the bear flag has resolved. Next pivot low is likely $65K-$67K. After that, the support break, retest as resistance, and we go lower. Based on previous drawdowns of 84% and 77%, a 70% drop from $126K lands around $37K-$38,555 - lining up with our artificial supports. Bear markets have lasted 52-54 weeks. We're still a couple of months out. RSI confirmed the reversal with a lower high at 76.83 versus January's 82.07. BTC wicked into the fast line and risks closing back below the cloud - that flips us from bullish consolidation back to strong bearish. ETH took a 5% close with RSI reset from 84 Monday to 57 Wednesday. ETHBTC is overbought at resistance - underperformance trade stays on. Stablecoin dominance RSI reset below 23.33 on Monday. Check please. DXY hit 100.314 and RSI flipped - dollar may be weakening, which should help stocks. The yen is the real danger: second TBO breakout on Wednesday, confirmed bearish divergence. If it keeps weakening, it tanks everything. VIX back in the rejection zone. S&P, Dow, Nasdaq all still strong bearish. Gold dumped 3% and printed a TBO close long in bearish consolidation - choppy May 2025 replay. Silver has two 4H TBO breakdowns. Copper confirmed a TBO open short. HYPE, Kaspa, QNT, Fartcoin, River all have TBO breakouts - Kaspa the cleanest setup, up 25%. BNB, PEPE, Bonk, and Fluid pulled back to the fast line after TBO close shorts Sunday - that's the entry window. TAO is overbought for day nine with two TBT bearish divergences. Fetch short still open. Pippin down 75% on the week. Merlin down 12% with a TBO breakdown cluster. XRP, Solana, Doge, Render, Trump, Syrup, and Zero all have 4H TBO close longs. Siren up 94% off the springboard bounce. Monero working on a second weekly TBO close long - very bearish. SoFi showing bullish divergence on the daily. Circle pushed above the 0.5 fib - next target $150.88. Western Digital TBO resistance jumped from $294 to $319 - strong bullish.

Aaron Dishner

24,611 次观看 • 5 个月前

BTC is up 3% on the Jane Street news. Yes, it's worth celebrating. But BlackRock accumulates BTC and moves entire markets without anyone blinking. Manipulation in crypto isn't new. This is not the bottom. BTC is still a deeply bearish chart. The bear flag is still valid. We lost support two days ago, bounced, and are now testing it as resistance. Pivot low at $62,510. Fast line at $69K — a realistic target if this bounce has legs. But the slow line still says lower. Targets: $49K → $38,500 → $31K. Not buying until I see capitulation — long lower wick weekly with volume. Not there. ETH up 3.3%, pivot low at $1,800. Bear flag still valid. TBO resistance at $2,050, then $2,200 would fool a lot of bulls. Volume not showing capitulation. Stablecoin dominance wicked to 12.05%, TBO breakouts printed — macro is bullish on every timeframe, expecting higher. Others dominance TBT bearish divergence confirmed Sunday, unconfirmed today with 22 hours left. Total market cap up 3.16% but TBO breakdowns on the 4h. Still not capitulation. TradFi: the DXY printed a second TBO close short — last seen July 2025. Rising dollar means pain for stocks. NVDA, Tesla, Dow all weak. VIX confirmed a TBT bearish divergence — first since October 2023, 75% historically marks a VIX top. Could see an equity relief rally if it plays out. Gold held the 618 Fib, still targeting $5,451 then $6,500. Alts: XRP, SOL, LINK, SUI, LTC, AVAX all have TBO breakdowns. PIPPIN up 79% in 3 days — stopped me out but RSI lower highs on the daily are a warning. POL has a TBO close short — wait for the fast line, don't chase. MYX second TBO breakdown — oversold pump possible, macro still brutal. MORPHO pushing higher — RSI needs to exceed 81.65 for continuation.
42:00

BTC is up 3% on the Jane Street news. Yes, it's worth celebrating. But BlackRock accumulates BTC and moves entire markets without anyone blinking. Manipulation in crypto isn't new. This is not the bottom. BTC is still a deeply bearish chart. The bear flag is still valid. We lost support two days ago, bounced, and are now testing it as resistance. Pivot low at $62,510. Fast line at $69K — a realistic target if this bounce has legs. But the slow line still says lower. Targets: $49K → $38,500 → $31K. Not buying until I see capitulation — long lower wick weekly with volume. Not there. ETH up 3.3%, pivot low at $1,800. Bear flag still valid. TBO resistance at $2,050, then $2,200 would fool a lot of bulls. Volume not showing capitulation. Stablecoin dominance wicked to 12.05%, TBO breakouts printed — macro is bullish on every timeframe, expecting higher. Others dominance TBT bearish divergence confirmed Sunday, unconfirmed today with 22 hours left. Total market cap up 3.16% but TBO breakdowns on the 4h. Still not capitulation. TradFi: the DXY printed a second TBO close short — last seen July 2025. Rising dollar means pain for stocks. NVDA, Tesla, Dow all weak. VIX confirmed a TBT bearish divergence — first since October 2023, 75% historically marks a VIX top. Could see an equity relief rally if it plays out. Gold held the 618 Fib, still targeting $5,451 then $6,500. Alts: XRP, SOL, LINK, SUI, LTC, AVAX all have TBO breakdowns. PIPPIN up 79% in 3 days — stopped me out but RSI lower highs on the daily are a warning. POL has a TBO close short — wait for the fast line, don't chase. MYX second TBO breakdown — oversold pump possible, macro still brutal. MORPHO pushing higher — RSI needs to exceed 81.65 for continuation.

Aaron Dishner

18,902 次观看 • 6 个月前

📺 $TSLA STILL STRONG BUT EXTENDED – YOU SHOULDN’T BE BUYING HERE Please ❤️like and 🔁share with fellow Tesla traders/investors #Tesla closed strong last week at $428.35. The stock is in a rising channel, with momentum still intact. However, it’s approaching a major resistance zone that could define the next multi-week move. * $442.26 – $444.99 is the critical area, which aligns with the rising channel top and is expected to cap price action through May and possibly June. Base case is #TSLA likely tests this zone this week, then struggles to break higher immediately. Expect then a pullback toward $418 (short-term) and $387.07 (key support), with the potential deeper move toward $347.63 (major support / Q3 bottom zone). * If $TSLA closes this week above $444.99, that’s a confirmed breakout that triggers a momentum “pull-away” move. Upside targets: – $498.83 (December high retest) → within 3–8 weeks – $541.30 → within 2–5 months Note: this only happens on confirmed strength, not intraday spikes. If $TSLA fails at $442–445, expect rotation lower. If it closes the week below $415.83, it will signal a short-term top and open the door to $387.07 (primary target) and potential acceleration lower. * So, what NOT to do: – Don’t chase in the low $440 s – that’s resistance, not opportunity. What to do instead: – Short-term traders may sell / short into $442–445 resistance. Target is $418 (quick trade) and $387 (swing trade). Alternative short trigger: breakdown below $415.83 → short continuation. – Long strategy: stay long above $418, buy dips at $387 (high-probability level) and possibly $347 (if deeper correction). – Breakout buyers: only get aggressive if confirmed close above $444.99. * So, $TSLA is still strong but extended. $442–445 is the decision zone: – Rejection → pullback and range – Breakout → fast move toward $500+ The smart play here isn’t chasing strength — it’s trading the levels and letting the market confirm direction. * Watch the full Trading Plan for May 11, 2026 in this short video🔽
2:55

📺 $TSLA STILL STRONG BUT EXTENDED – YOU SHOULDN’T BE BUYING HERE Please ❤️like and 🔁share with fellow Tesla traders/investors #Tesla closed strong last week at $428.35. The stock is in a rising channel, with momentum still intact. However, it’s approaching a major resistance zone that could define the next multi-week move. * $442.26 – $444.99 is the critical area, which aligns with the rising channel top and is expected to cap price action through May and possibly June. Base case is #TSLA likely tests this zone this week, then struggles to break higher immediately. Expect then a pullback toward $418 (short-term) and $387.07 (key support), with the potential deeper move toward $347.63 (major support / Q3 bottom zone). * If $TSLA closes this week above $444.99, that’s a confirmed breakout that triggers a momentum “pull-away” move. Upside targets: – $498.83 (December high retest) → within 3–8 weeks – $541.30 → within 2–5 months Note: this only happens on confirmed strength, not intraday spikes. If $TSLA fails at $442–445, expect rotation lower. If it closes the week below $415.83, it will signal a short-term top and open the door to $387.07 (primary target) and potential acceleration lower. * So, what NOT to do: – Don’t chase in the low $440 s – that’s resistance, not opportunity. What to do instead: – Short-term traders may sell / short into $442–445 resistance. Target is $418 (quick trade) and $387 (swing trade). Alternative short trigger: breakdown below $415.83 → short continuation. – Long strategy: stay long above $418, buy dips at $387 (high-probability level) and possibly $347 (if deeper correction). – Breakout buyers: only get aggressive if confirmed close above $444.99. * So, $TSLA is still strong but extended. $442–445 is the decision zone: – Rejection → pullback and range – Breakout → fast move toward $500+ The smart play here isn’t chasing strength — it’s trading the levels and letting the market confirm direction. * Watch the full Trading Plan for May 11, 2026 in this short video🔽

Wicked Stocks

29,516 次观看 • 3 个月前

📺 $TSLA $500 NEXT OR REVERSAL FIRST? Please ❤️like and share with fellow Tesla traders/investors Tesla ($TSLA#Tesla is sitting right at a critical resistance zone after a strong run: $442.26 to $444.99 (channel top). This is not just any level. This is a decision zone that determines whether #TSLA: – Breaks into a new leg higher (bullish continuation) – Or rejects and rotates lower (range or pullback) * So, the entire bullish thesis hinges on the weekly close above $444.99. If confirmed: – Short-term target (2–3 weeks): ~$498.83 (prior December high) – Medium-term target (2–3 months): ~$541.33 This move could extend through June–July and into Q3. An additional early signal would be a close above $452.34 on Thursday. It would suggest strong momentum and imply a likely continuation into Friday, with an immediate upside projection of ~$474.07 the next day. If the price breaks above the resistance, it likely accelerates quickly—this becomes a momentum trade. * If #TSLA fails to hold above resistance, the tone flips. A key rejection signal is a weekly close below $442.26. Then, the stock likely enters a range ($347 → $442) or a pullback phase, with a possible consolidation lasting 2-3 months. Downside levels: – First support: $426.50. Break below → early weakness signal – Next target: $409.03 – Intermediate level: $387.07 – Deeper downside: $340 s – $350 s Failure at resistance = no trend, just chop or pullback. This is where overbought conditions unwind. * Right now (in resistance zone), take profits on longs and consider short setups if rejection confirms. Aggressive long entry only if $452.34 breaks/holds (early signal) OR a weekly close above $444.99 (confirmation). Early bearish positioning if $TSLA closes below $426.50 – signals potential rotation lower into June. * So, the entire setup comes down to one concept: acceptance vs. rejection at resistance. – Acceptance above ~$445 → trend continuation → momentum higher – Rejection below ~$442 → range/pullback → time correction No guessing tops. No predicting narratives. Just reacting to price behavior at key levels. * Watch the full Trading Plan for May 14, 2026 in this short video🔽
2:59

📺 $TSLA $500 NEXT OR REVERSAL FIRST? Please ❤️like and share with fellow Tesla traders/investors Tesla ($TSLA#Tesla is sitting right at a critical resistance zone after a strong run: $442.26 to $444.99 (channel top). This is not just any level. This is a decision zone that determines whether #TSLA: – Breaks into a new leg higher (bullish continuation) – Or rejects and rotates lower (range or pullback) * So, the entire bullish thesis hinges on the weekly close above $444.99. If confirmed: – Short-term target (2–3 weeks): ~$498.83 (prior December high) – Medium-term target (2–3 months): ~$541.33 This move could extend through June–July and into Q3. An additional early signal would be a close above $452.34 on Thursday. It would suggest strong momentum and imply a likely continuation into Friday, with an immediate upside projection of ~$474.07 the next day. If the price breaks above the resistance, it likely accelerates quickly—this becomes a momentum trade. * If #TSLA fails to hold above resistance, the tone flips. A key rejection signal is a weekly close below $442.26. Then, the stock likely enters a range ($347 → $442) or a pullback phase, with a possible consolidation lasting 2-3 months. Downside levels: – First support: $426.50. Break below → early weakness signal – Next target: $409.03 – Intermediate level: $387.07 – Deeper downside: $340 s – $350 s Failure at resistance = no trend, just chop or pullback. This is where overbought conditions unwind. * Right now (in resistance zone), take profits on longs and consider short setups if rejection confirms. Aggressive long entry only if $452.34 breaks/holds (early signal) OR a weekly close above $444.99 (confirmation). Early bearish positioning if $TSLA closes below $426.50 – signals potential rotation lower into June. * So, the entire setup comes down to one concept: acceptance vs. rejection at resistance. – Acceptance above ~$445 → trend continuation → momentum higher – Rejection below ~$442 → range/pullback → time correction No guessing tops. No predicting narratives. Just reacting to price behavior at key levels. * Watch the full Trading Plan for May 14, 2026 in this short video🔽

Wicked Stocks

22,667 次观看 • 3 个月前

BTC has now wicked above the same resistance three times in five days, and that keeps weakening the level. I still think the most likely short-term move is a push toward the CME gap at $81,145, but I do not like the risk to reward for longs up here. If my bigger bearish thesis is right, this rally is setting up a much better short later, not a chase long now. That bigger picture still matters more to me. April has already done the heavy lifting, while the historical setup for May and June still points to deeper downside and much bigger volatility. If that pattern keeps tracking, BTC could still be setting up for a much harder drop over the next two months. ETH still looks weaker than BTC, BTC dominance keeps pressing higher, and TOTALES is holding up better than the smaller alt indexes. But TOTALE50 and TOTALE100 are both flashing more bearish reversal pressure underneath, so I still think altcoins are vulnerable even if some charts are bouncing for now. In TradFi, DXY and USDJPY both still look capable of pushing higher, ES finally cooled off after a strong streak, the VIX is trying to turn, and the Nikkei still looks strong but not invincible. On the watchlist, I am paying closest attention to XMR, XLM, CHZ, STRK, H, HYPE, TAO, XRP, RENDER, and SOL.
45:59

BTC has now wicked above the same resistance three times in five days, and that keeps weakening the level. I still think the most likely short-term move is a push toward the CME gap at $81,145, but I do not like the risk to reward for longs up here. If my bigger bearish thesis is right, this rally is setting up a much better short later, not a chase long now. That bigger picture still matters more to me. April has already done the heavy lifting, while the historical setup for May and June still points to deeper downside and much bigger volatility. If that pattern keeps tracking, BTC could still be setting up for a much harder drop over the next two months. ETH still looks weaker than BTC, BTC dominance keeps pressing higher, and TOTALES is holding up better than the smaller alt indexes. But TOTALE50 and TOTALE100 are both flashing more bearish reversal pressure underneath, so I still think altcoins are vulnerable even if some charts are bouncing for now. In TradFi, DXY and USDJPY both still look capable of pushing higher, ES finally cooled off after a strong streak, the VIX is trying to turn, and the Nikkei still looks strong but not invincible. On the watchlist, I am paying closest attention to XMR, XLM, CHZ, STRK, H, HYPE, TAO, XRP, RENDER, and SOL.

Aaron Dishner

69,553 次观看 • 4 个月前