BITCOIN HAS ONLY ONE RULE FOR CYCLE LOWS It doesn’t bottom before it touches the Global Trendline. Three cycles. Three touches. Three lows. Right now we’re still roughly $25K too high. Every cycle looked different. Every narrative changed. But in the end, $BTC came back to the same line.... The generational entry is still $40K-$45K. People will call the bottom early. They will say this time is different. They always do. But if we get $40K-$45K, that’s where I want to be a buyer. Turn notis on 🔔 I’ll tell you when it’s time to buy.show more

Never happen to 45000, stop to dream btc bottom 59000

The “global trendline” (typically a long-term log-log power-law regression of price vs. time) is an elegant historical fit, but it’s a fundamentally flawed methodology for projecting cycle lows in a maturing asset like Bitcoin. Here’s why: 1. It’s a reduced-form statistical model, not a structural one. Power-law regressions (e.g., Price ≈ A × Time^n, with n ≈ 5.5–5.8 in common formulations) capture correlation from past data but ignore underlying drivers. They treat Bitcoin like a scale-invariant physical system (e.g., city growth or earthquakes), yet BTC operates in economic, social, and institutional domains. This category error leads to overfitting: the fit looks tight in-sample but is sensitive to the chosen time window. Extending or shortening the regression period meaningfully shifts the slope and “floor.” 2. It fails to incorporate compounding scarcity and illiquidity. Bitcoin’s fixed 21M supply + halvings create accelerating scarcity. On-chain data in 2026 shows record long-term holder (LTH) supply—often >15M BTC classified as held >155 days—with ancient/illiquid coins growing faster than new issuance. Exchange balances are near all-time lows as institutions (ETFs, corporates, sovereigns) custody coins off-market. This reduces sell pressure and circulating supply during drawdowns far more than in 2018 or 2022. A pure time-based trendline cannot model this dynamic supply shock; it extrapolates past liquidity regimes that no longer exist. 3. Structural regime shift from adoption. Pre-2024 cycles were dominated by retail leverage and panic capitulation. Post-ETF era brings stronger hands, lower velocity, and correlated institutional inflows. Realized price, HODL waves, and coin-days-destroyed metrics all reflect this maturation: fewer 80%+ crashes expected because marginal sellers (weak hands) represent a shrinking portion of supply. Historical trendlines embed average past behavior—they don’t adjust for a higher baseline floor driven by these changes. 4. Statistical fragility and “this time is different” blind spot. Log-log fits are prone to spurious correlation (price is autocorrelated over time). Critics note the model has required downward revisions in exponent over time and breaks under different sample periods. It also assumes perpetual power-law growth without fully modeling saturation, regulatory shifts, or macro liquidity events. Every prior valuation model (S2F, etc.) eventually broke; over-reliance on backward-looking extrapolation ignores that Bitcoin is still early in global adoption. In short: The trendline is a useful heuristic for the average historical path, but it underestimates the impact of increased HODLing, scarcity compounding, and institutionalization. These factors support a structurally higher cycle low than a naive extrapolation to $40k–$45k implies. Bitcoin has evolved—the model hasn’t.

by every you mean twice right?

Every cycle rhymes, but it never repeats exactly.

Your lines are retarded

Yup, you got it

Imagine doing chart analysis in linear scale 😂

Damn 25k is gonna be something like Bitcoin Probably dead

100% accurate, some of us long this game understand this perfectly, and track market cycle timing with precision. After 15yrs in #Bitcoin the patters are blatantly obvious for wealth rotation pivots.

Bad advice. Your chart is in linear scale. This means it distorts growth rate between low and high prices.

Dude how do you even get that kind of foresight on the global trendline like that?

Appears gamblers agree with you. "There is no example in history of a State that relies extensively on gambling to raise revenue that isn't in an advanced state of decline." Voltaire's Bastards, John Ralston Saul This could be bullish for gold and crypto.

Dont you know log charts man. Come on!

Trendlines are bullshit. Real adoption matters.

So what about eth?

真正的週期低點只有一次，熬過去吃肉

傾向であって法則ではない

I am not sure two observations defines a reliable investment rule.

🐝

Spot on, the trendline's undefeated. Still $25k pain incoming before that fat generational entry. HODL up, legends.

interesting

ok

The significance of large market moves is usually only clear in hindsight.

Interesting framework 👀📉 The challenge with $BTC is knowing when a historical pattern stops being a rule and starts being a reference. Time will tell. ⏳ #BitcoinCycles

The hardest part of any cycle is surviving the wait.

that would be a wild buying opportunity for us?

The best opportunities rarely feel comfortable.

I am also inclined to believe that the bottom of BTC should be below $50k. September or October must be a better time to buy bitcoin.

My Levels

while everyone waits for 40k i'll be rotating into the narratives that are actually moving rn