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Bitcoin Intelligence Report 20 📣 Above the Clouds: Post-Rally Outlook Emailed to subscribers. Link in my bio. Bitcoin has broken out to new all-time highs, fueled by strong spot demand and institutional inflows. On-chain metrics show momentum is rising, but profit-taking remains moderate, suggesting room for further upside. Valuation... show more

Sina 🗝️⚡ 21st Capital

41,446 subscribers

32,162 просмотров • 1 год назад •via X (Twitter)

Наука и технологии Новости и политика Финансы

Anya Rossi• Live Now

Private livecam show

Комментарии: 5

Фото профиля Jeff Peters 🇺🇸 🇮🇱

Jeff Peters 🇺🇸 🇮🇱1 год назад

Great analyses, Sina. Your track record is rock solid. Congratulations.

Фото профиля Sina 🗝️⚡ 21st Capital

Sina 🗝️⚡ 21st Capital1 год назад

Appreciate you Jeff

Фото профиля Kovac

Kovac1 год назад

I wanna scout this @MirraTerminal

Фото профиля BTCClarkieeeeee

BTCClarkieeeeee1 год назад

Was worth 120,000 :(

Фото профиля Arshi

Arshi1 год назад

@TheRealPlanC Interesting information. 👍🏼

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🔊 “Short-term price action is noise. Focus on the thesis. The goal is to win long-term.” describes the aggressive BTC accumulation from Michael Saylor as “loading the spring” for a potential outbreak in 2025. There’s likely motives that are driving this behavior behind speculation of the SBR and how to optimize the new accounting changes from FASB. It will be interesting to see the narrative that the Strategy team focuses on in 2025 as Bitcoin continues to push to new all time highs. MicroStrategy isn’t just a Bitcoin play—it’s the Bitcoin strategy. Tune into Anders_ ✝️🇩🇰🇧🇷🥩🥩🍸 MSTR Monday’s with and Adrian to hear their expectations for MicroStrategy heading into 2025. Key insights from full discussion: 🕰️ Long-Term Vision: Saylor’s strategy prioritizes Bitcoin per share growth. Short-term volatility is noise; the company remains focused on building value through Bitcoin accumulation. [03:57] 📈 Bitcoin Stockpile Growth: MicroStrategy aims for 500,000 BTC by year-end, aggressively frontloading ahead of potential nation-state accumulation that could reshape markets. [17:31] ➡️ NASDAQ-100 Rebalancing: MicroStrategy’s NASDAQ-100 inclusion triggers significant capital shifts starting this month, with billions in buy pressure expected. Momentum builds. [18:31] 🌟 2025 Outlook: Catalysts are aligning: favorable accounting rules, Bitcoin’s price appreciation, and post-halving momentum set the stage for MicroStrategy to dominate. [22:53] 🇺🇸 US Reserve Speculation: Speculation grows that the US could adopt Bitcoin in its reserves. If true, it could set off global demand, price surges, and unprecedented market dynamics. [30:17] Full video:

🔊 “Short-term price action is noise. Focus on the thesis. The goal is to win long-term.” describes the aggressive BTC accumulation from Michael Saylor as “loading the spring” for a potential outbreak in 2025. There’s likely motives that are driving this behavior behind speculation of the SBR and how to optimize the new accounting changes from FASB. It will be interesting to see the narrative that the Strategy team focuses on in 2025 as Bitcoin continues to push to new all time highs. MicroStrategy isn’t just a Bitcoin play—it’s the Bitcoin strategy. Tune into Anders_ ✝️🇩🇰🇧🇷🥩🥩🍸 MSTR Monday’s with and Adrian to hear their expectations for MicroStrategy heading into 2025. Key insights from full discussion: 🕰️ Long-Term Vision: Saylor’s strategy prioritizes Bitcoin per share growth. Short-term volatility is noise; the company remains focused on building value through Bitcoin accumulation. [03:57] 📈 Bitcoin Stockpile Growth: MicroStrategy aims for 500,000 BTC by year-end, aggressively frontloading ahead of potential nation-state accumulation that could reshape markets. [17:31] ➡️ NASDAQ-100 Rebalancing: MicroStrategy’s NASDAQ-100 inclusion triggers significant capital shifts starting this month, with billions in buy pressure expected. Momentum builds. [18:31] 🌟 2025 Outlook: Catalysts are aligning: favorable accounting rules, Bitcoin’s price appreciation, and post-halving momentum set the stage for MicroStrategy to dominate. [22:53] 🇺🇸 US Reserve Speculation: Speculation grows that the US could adopt Bitcoin in its reserves. If true, it could set off global demand, price surges, and unprecedented market dynamics. [30:17] Full video:

J64 - SignalStation.app

21,012 просмотров • 1 год назад

#Bitcoin needs to hold the 50 week SMA at 76K to stay in a bullish uptrend. A quick wick below is fine, like we saw in August 2024 with the bounce from 50K, but weekly closes must stay above. As long as this level holds, the structure of higher highs and higher lows remains intact, setting up for new highs.

#Bitcoin needs to hold the 50 week SMA at 76K to stay in a bullish uptrend. A quick wick below is fine, like we saw in August 2024 with the bounce from 50K, but weekly closes must stay above. As long as this level holds, the structure of higher highs and higher lows remains intact, setting up for new highs.

VirtualBacon

87,972 просмотров • 1 год назад

When you think Bitcoin is done, someone is still buying. Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, just said that despite the recent market downturn, they are still continuously buying Bitcoin. He remains long-term bullish on Bitcoin and has said, “When you truly study Bitcoin, you naturally gravitate toward it. Entering early may come with volatility, but the rewards ultimately go to those who position themselves ahead of time. We are still in the early stages of the Bitcoin market.” Don’t wait for the perfect bottom

When you think Bitcoin is done, someone is still buying. Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, just said that despite the recent market downturn, they are still continuously buying Bitcoin. He remains long-term bullish on Bitcoin and has said, “When you truly study Bitcoin, you naturally gravitate toward it. Entering early may come with volatility, but the rewards ultimately go to those who position themselves ahead of time. We are still in the early stages of the Bitcoin market.” Don’t wait for the perfect bottom

Shawn

69,931 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

LYN ALDEN SAYS THE OLD BITCOIN CYCLE IS DEAD Lyn Alden said the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle isn’t as relevant anymore. With BTC’s annual supply growth now well under 1% -- lower than gold -- halvings aren’t the main driver they used to be. What matters more now is sentiment and valuation. 💯 She pointed out that interest has shifted to AI and gold, #Bitcoin treasury premiums have collapsed, and on-chain metrics have compressed — making $BTC more attractive, not less. Her takeaway is this isn’t the time to chase excitement, but it’s the time to lean in when Bitcoin feels boring and ignored. That’s usually where long-term entries get built. 💪 📹 Paul Barron Network

LYN ALDEN SAYS THE OLD BITCOIN CYCLE IS DEAD Lyn Alden said the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle isn’t as relevant anymore. With BTC’s annual supply growth now well under 1% -- lower than gold -- halvings aren’t the main driver they used to be. What matters more now is sentiment and valuation. 💯 She pointed out that interest has shifted to AI and gold, #Bitcoin treasury premiums have collapsed, and on-chain metrics have compressed — making $BTC more attractive, not less. Her takeaway is this isn’t the time to chase excitement, but it’s the time to lean in when Bitcoin feels boring and ignored. That’s usually where long-term entries get built. 💪 📹 Paul Barron Network

CryptosRus

76,896 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

$XRP The price is currently unfolding in line with the expected wave structure, with price moving higher in what may be the C-wave of a developing D-wave within a larger triangle. The preferred interpretation remains the orange scenario, where a sideways triangle is forming, with waves A, B, and C already completed and wave D now progressing as a 3-wave structure to the upside. The market has held the key support zone between $1.33 and $1.36, which keeps the current structure intact. In addition, price has broken above the 7 April high around $1.39, which would indicate continuation of the short-term upside move. As long as price holds above this breakout level, the current scenario remains valid and increases the probability of further gains within wave D. The D-wave could complete in the region between $1.44 and $1.52.

$XRP The price is currently unfolding in line with the expected wave structure, with price moving higher in what may be the C-wave of a developing D-wave within a larger triangle. The preferred interpretation remains the orange scenario, where a sideways triangle is forming, with waves A, B, and C already completed and wave D now progressing as a 3-wave structure to the upside. The market has held the key support zone between $1.33 and $1.36, which keeps the current structure intact. In addition, price has broken above the 7 April high around $1.39, which would indicate continuation of the short-term upside move. As long as price holds above this breakout level, the current scenario remains valid and increases the probability of further gains within wave D. The D-wave could complete in the region between $1.44 and $1.52.

More Crypto Online

12,084 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Former BlackRock fund manager Ed Dowd on the Bitcoin drop: "Bitcoin has always been a global liquidity canary in the coal mine" "what [this] says to me is that Bitcoin is being sold to fund and chase... momentum stocks, particularly NASDAQ and semiconductors" "[this] means the liquidity situation isn't as good as everyone thinks, because if this was truly a liquidity driven market rise, Bitcoin would be participating right now" This clip of Dowd (Edward Dowd), a former BlackRock fund manager and co-founder of Phinance Technologies, is taken from an interview with Daniela Cambone-Taub (Daniela Cambone-Taub) posted to the ITM TRADING, INC. YouTube channel on June 5, 2026. ---------------Partial transcription of clip---------------- "So Bitcoin peaked in October of last year and in this most recent move, in three weeks it's gone from 81,000 to 67,000. That's a 17% decline in three weeks. And technically it looks like it wants to go find a new low. "At the moment it may rally from here, but, the NASDAQ and Bitcoin have a strong correlation, historically 95%. "Bitcoin is a risk-on trade. So recently that's decoupled a little bit, which implies one of two things. Bitcoin needs to rally back up to make the correlation hold or the NASDAQ has to move down a lot for the correlation to hold. "So given Bitcoin's decline, it makes me concerned that global— and Bitcoin has always been a global liquidity canary in the coal mine. So what it says to me is that Bitcoin is being sold to fund and chase, you know, momentum stocks, particularly NASDAQ and semiconductors, which means the liquidity situation isn't as good as everyone thinks. "Because if this was truly a liquidity driven market rise, Bitcoin would be participating right now. "[And Michael] Saylor's stock has been a disaster for the last year and a half. He's selling some Bitcoin to pay some dividends. There is a thesis that he gets a margin call. I don't know whether that's true or not, but at these levels, it's margin call. "People have said in $74,000 bitcoins, margin call territory, we're now at $67,000. We'll see if that continues to unwind the Bitcoin space. But it just doesn't bode well for global liquidity that Bitcoin is struggling, in my humble opinion."

Former BlackRock fund manager Ed Dowd on the Bitcoin drop: "Bitcoin has always been a global liquidity canary in the coal mine" "what [this] says to me is that Bitcoin is being sold to fund and chase... momentum stocks, particularly NASDAQ and semiconductors" "[this] means the liquidity situation isn't as good as everyone thinks, because if this was truly a liquidity driven market rise, Bitcoin would be participating right now" This clip of Dowd (Edward Dowd), a former BlackRock fund manager and co-founder of Phinance Technologies, is taken from an interview with Daniela Cambone-Taub (Daniela Cambone-Taub) posted to the ITM TRADING, INC. YouTube channel on June 5, 2026. ---------------Partial transcription of clip---------------- "So Bitcoin peaked in October of last year and in this most recent move, in three weeks it's gone from 81,000 to 67,000. That's a 17% decline in three weeks. And technically it looks like it wants to go find a new low. "At the moment it may rally from here, but, the NASDAQ and Bitcoin have a strong correlation, historically 95%. "Bitcoin is a risk-on trade. So recently that's decoupled a little bit, which implies one of two things. Bitcoin needs to rally back up to make the correlation hold or the NASDAQ has to move down a lot for the correlation to hold. "So given Bitcoin's decline, it makes me concerned that global— and Bitcoin has always been a global liquidity canary in the coal mine. So what it says to me is that Bitcoin is being sold to fund and chase, you know, momentum stocks, particularly NASDAQ and semiconductors, which means the liquidity situation isn't as good as everyone thinks. "Because if this was truly a liquidity driven market rise, Bitcoin would be participating right now. "[And Michael] Saylor's stock has been a disaster for the last year and a half. He's selling some Bitcoin to pay some dividends. There is a thesis that he gets a margin call. I don't know whether that's true or not, but at these levels, it's margin call. "People have said in $74,000 bitcoins, margin call territory, we're now at $67,000. We'll see if that continues to unwind the Bitcoin space. But it just doesn't bode well for global liquidity that Bitcoin is struggling, in my humble opinion."

Sense Receptor

39,191 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Wait….. Wait….. Wait….. ❗ Before you short $BTC, take a look at this chart. $BTC is once again trading around the $60K support zone. Price is no longer making aggressive new lows. Instead, it is consolidating near support while sellers lose momentum. If buyers manage to push Bitcoin above the descending resistance and hold the retest, I believe the next move could send $BTC toward the $63K region. As long as the $58K-$60K support zone remains intact, I see no reason to be aggressively bearish here. The market has already flushed weak hands. Now I’m watching for a breakout from this structure. My target remains $63K+.

Wait….. Wait….. Wait….. ❗ Before you short $BTC, take a look at this chart. $BTC is once again trading around the $60K support zone. Price is no longer making aggressive new lows. Instead, it is consolidating near support while sellers lose momentum. If buyers manage to push Bitcoin above the descending resistance and hold the retest, I believe the next move could send $BTC toward the $63K region. As long as the $58K-$60K support zone remains intact, I see no reason to be aggressively bearish here. The market has already flushed weak hands. Now I’m watching for a breakout from this structure. My target remains $63K+.

Crypto with Haris ₿

21,524 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Cathie Wood Cathie Wood of ARK Invest: Bitcoin was declining relative to gold. It now appears to be bottoming. Gold itself is declining. She is staying bullish. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio chart she presented on July 2 shows the ratio has held at a floor while gold moved lower. Wood reads this as the start of a resumption of the "volatile but broad uptrend" visible on the long-term chart. The macro context behind the call: in a deflationary tech regime with falling rates, Bitcoin benefits as a risk-on digital store of value. The rotation from gold to Bitcoin is consistent with the broader ARK thesis on financial innovation. Michael Saylor Michael Saylor has made the structural case for Bitcoin over gold more forcefully than anyone - argues Bitcoin's fixed supply and digital properties make it the superior store of value over any multi-year horizon. Bitcoin, gold, and the deflationary thesis: Source: ARK Invest In the Know -

Cathie Wood Cathie Wood of ARK Invest: Bitcoin was declining relative to gold. It now appears to be bottoming. Gold itself is declining. She is staying bullish. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio chart she presented on July 2 shows the ratio has held at a floor while gold moved lower. Wood reads this as the start of a resumption of the "volatile but broad uptrend" visible on the long-term chart. The macro context behind the call: in a deflationary tech regime with falling rates, Bitcoin benefits as a risk-on digital store of value. The rotation from gold to Bitcoin is consistent with the broader ARK thesis on financial innovation. Michael Saylor Michael Saylor has made the structural case for Bitcoin over gold more forcefully than anyone - argues Bitcoin's fixed supply and digital properties make it the superior store of value over any multi-year horizon. Bitcoin, gold, and the deflationary thesis: Source: ARK Invest In the Know -

Podcast Alpha

17,024 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

How, in 7 Weeks, Bitcoin ETFs Reached Inflows That Took Gold ETFs 3 Years In this episode, Eric Balchunas, senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, discussed the performance of #Bitcoin ETFs since their launch two months ago. Balchunas noted that the ETFs’ performance exceeded his expectations, with a faster and more intense “second wind” than anticipated. He attributed this to a combination of asset managers buying in, retail interest, and the “ETF effect” where the knowledge of incoming flows encourages non-ETF investors to buy. Balchunas also predicted that BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF would likely be the most successful of the nine new spot Bitcoin ETFs, while also doubting that any of the smaller issuers would bow out. He also discussed the potential for spot Ether ETFs, but was less optimistic about their success compared to Bitcoin ETFs. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:35 Bitcoin ETF performance in the first weeks 10:38 Bitcoin's rally to all-time highs 15:15 BlackRock: the winner? 18:14 When options will be approved 19:01 In-kind redemptions 19:55 Outflows from GBTC 22:36 Ether ETFs won't have as much demand? 27:01 Approval of ETH ETFs 36:36 Short-term projection for bitcoin 38:23 Long-term inflows in the ETFs 44:23 Weekly recap

How, in 7 Weeks, Bitcoin ETFs Reached Inflows That Took Gold ETFs 3 Years In this episode, Eric Balchunas, senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, discussed the performance of #Bitcoin ETFs since their launch two months ago. Balchunas noted that the ETFs’ performance exceeded his expectations, with a faster and more intense “second wind” than anticipated. He attributed this to a combination of asset managers buying in, retail interest, and the “ETF effect” where the knowledge of incoming flows encourages non-ETF investors to buy. Balchunas also predicted that BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF would likely be the most successful of the nine new spot Bitcoin ETFs, while also doubting that any of the smaller issuers would bow out. He also discussed the potential for spot Ether ETFs, but was less optimistic about their success compared to Bitcoin ETFs. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 01:35 Bitcoin ETF performance in the first weeks 10:38 Bitcoin's rally to all-time highs 15:15 BlackRock: the winner? 18:14 When options will be approved 19:01 In-kind redemptions 19:55 Outflows from GBTC 22:36 Ether ETFs won't have as much demand? 27:01 Approval of ETH ETFs 36:36 Short-term projection for bitcoin 38:23 Long-term inflows in the ETFs 44:23 Weekly recap

Laura Shin

49,589 просмотров • 2 лет назад

Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index hits a record negative streak, explained "The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index hit a record 50-day negative premium streak. In fact it's 51 days today because I checked it right before the show, but that wasn't as convenient to show in this beautiful image. This is according to Coinglass data" "Prolonged negative premiums are often associated with weaker US institutional demand or short-term risk market pressure" "So basically, TLDR, Americans are not buying Bitcoin in the same quantity that others are, and institutions are likely buying less Bitcoin"

Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index hits a record negative streak, explained "The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index hit a record 50-day negative premium streak. In fact it's 51 days today because I checked it right before the show, but that wasn't as convenient to show in this beautiful image. This is according to Coinglass data" "Prolonged negative premiums are often associated with weaker US institutional demand or short-term risk market pressure" "So basically, TLDR, Americans are not buying Bitcoin in the same quantity that others are, and institutions are likely buying less Bitcoin"

The Wolf Of All Streets

20,349 просмотров • 27 дней назад

LUKE GROMEN SAYS NO ONE HAS ACCURATELY DESCRIBED HIS NEAR-TERM BEARISH STANCE ON BITCOIN So here it is, line by line: • Gromen says he sold most, but not all, of his Bitcoin. • He argues most people misunderstand why he is bearish. • He says his thesis that Bitcoin is the last functioning smoke alarm of global liquidity has been proven right. • What was proven wrong, for now, is Bitcoin as a neutral reserve asset in deflation. • In deflation, Bitcoin trades like a high beta tech stock. • In other words, Bitcoin behaves like equity, not cash or gold. • The global economy is extremely leveraged. • In any leveraged system, deflation hits the equity tranche first. • Bitcoin, in Gromen’s framework, is the equity tranche. • AI and robotics are enforcing accelerating, exponential deflation. • Productivity gains overwhelm anything short of extreme money printing. • Without “nuclear printing,” deflation dominates. • When deflation dominates, equity prices fall. • Because Bitcoin trades like equity, Bitcoin falls. • Gromen does not think nuclear printing is coming soon. • He thinks sentiment on Bitcoin remains extremely bullish because of all the hate he has gotten for selling. • Long term, he is still bullish on Bitcoin. • He still expects deflation to eventually force the 'nuclear printing'. • His mistake was timing the policy response too early. • Until that response arrives, he believes Bitcoin is vulnerable.

LUKE GROMEN SAYS NO ONE HAS ACCURATELY DESCRIBED HIS NEAR-TERM BEARISH STANCE ON BITCOIN So here it is, line by line: • Gromen says he sold most, but not all, of his Bitcoin. • He argues most people misunderstand why he is bearish. • He says his thesis that Bitcoin is the last functioning smoke alarm of global liquidity has been proven right. • What was proven wrong, for now, is Bitcoin as a neutral reserve asset in deflation. • In deflation, Bitcoin trades like a high beta tech stock. • In other words, Bitcoin behaves like equity, not cash or gold. • The global economy is extremely leveraged. • In any leveraged system, deflation hits the equity tranche first. • Bitcoin, in Gromen’s framework, is the equity tranche. • AI and robotics are enforcing accelerating, exponential deflation. • Productivity gains overwhelm anything short of extreme money printing. • Without “nuclear printing,” deflation dominates. • When deflation dominates, equity prices fall. • Because Bitcoin trades like equity, Bitcoin falls. • Gromen does not think nuclear printing is coming soon. • He thinks sentiment on Bitcoin remains extremely bullish because of all the hate he has gotten for selling. • Long term, he is still bullish on Bitcoin. • He still expects deflation to eventually force the 'nuclear printing'. • His mistake was timing the policy response too early. • Until that response arrives, he believes Bitcoin is vulnerable.

Bitcoin News

201,601 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

The Bitcoin Power Law Theory is absolutely fascinating and the model's upper ceiling predicts $1M per BTC by 2028. To quote Giovanni's BTC_POWER_LAW - "Bitcoin is ruled by power laws. Its regularities show that it behaves more like a physical system than an asset." How does this model work? We've got the alpha 👇 Robert Baggs and I spoke to Björn Schmidtke about his new Tether Gold DAT and why he remains convinced that tokenized Gold will be a massive drawcard for institutional investors. But he also sees Bitcoin eventually surpassing Gold's market cap due to the Power Law that is evident in various metrics relating to Bitcoin (its value, hashrate, wallets etc). How soon could this happen? As early as 2033, if the Bitcoin Power Law Theory continues to be validated. You can find the full conversation from our recent Cointelegraph Chain Reaction show in the 🧵👇

The Bitcoin Power Law Theory is absolutely fascinating and the model's upper ceiling predicts $1M per BTC by 2028. To quote Giovanni's BTC_POWER_LAW - "Bitcoin is ruled by power laws. Its regularities show that it behaves more like a physical system than an asset." How does this model work? We've got the alpha 👇 Robert Baggs and I spoke to Björn Schmidtke about his new Tether Gold DAT and why he remains convinced that tokenized Gold will be a massive drawcard for institutional investors. But he also sees Bitcoin eventually surpassing Gold's market cap due to the Power Law that is evident in various metrics relating to Bitcoin (its value, hashrate, wallets etc). How soon could this happen? As early as 2033, if the Bitcoin Power Law Theory continues to be validated. You can find the full conversation from our recent Cointelegraph Chain Reaction show in the 🧵👇

Gareth Jenkinson

25,053 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

I called the $126K Bitcoin top. Now I'm calling the $54K BOTTOM. I don't make many Bitcoin calls, but when I do, they matter. Right now we're in terminal consolidation ($64K-$72K). Here's what I'm watching: Short-term trap to ~$72K (bull trap) → Massive drop to $54K (liquidity sweep) → Retail capitulates → Macro uptrend resumes $54K is the final shakeout, then the real rally starts. Turn on notifications. I'll post live updates as this plays out

I called the $126K Bitcoin top. Now I'm calling the $54K BOTTOM. I don't make many Bitcoin calls, but when I do, they matter. Right now we're in terminal consolidation ($64K-$72K). Here's what I'm watching: Short-term trap to ~$72K (bull trap) → Massive drop to $54K (liquidity sweep) → Retail capitulates → Macro uptrend resumes $54K is the final shakeout, then the real rally starts. Turn on notifications. I'll post live updates as this plays out

Kabuki🔴

43,416 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

I sat down with Natalie Brunell ⚡️ to discuss why bitcoin’s price has stalled, how it stacks up against gold, the biggest misconceptions critics still get wrong, stablecoins, Wall Street’s growing role, and whether Satoshi’s identity even matters. Natalie also shares insights from her book "Bitcoin Is For Everyone" and why she believes bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains as strong as ever. Enjoy! YouTube: Apple: Spotify: TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 - Intro 1:15 – Inflation & the U.S. affordability crisis 4:18 - Bitcoin vs. Gold 5:33 - Wall Street’s role in bitcoin and nation-state adoption 10:05 – Bitcoin as payments vs. store of value 12:02 – Stablecoins relationship to bitcoin 15:58 - Censorship, de-banking & financial freedom 20:22 - Banks & bitcoin reserves 21:48 - Media coverage of bitcoin and how to fix broken incentives 26:42 - “Bitcoin Is For Everyone” 32:26 - How to measure inflation 34:53 - The money printer mountain 36:32 - Who is Satoshi? Does it matter? 37:51 - Selling the book and closing remarks

I sat down with Natalie Brunell ⚡️ to discuss why bitcoin’s price has stalled, how it stacks up against gold, the biggest misconceptions critics still get wrong, stablecoins, Wall Street’s growing role, and whether Satoshi’s identity even matters. Natalie also shares insights from her book "Bitcoin Is For Everyone" and why she believes bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains as strong as ever. Enjoy! YouTube: Apple: Spotify: TIMESTAMPS: 0:00 - Intro 1:15 – Inflation & the U.S. affordability crisis 4:18 - Bitcoin vs. Gold 5:33 - Wall Street’s role in bitcoin and nation-state adoption 10:05 – Bitcoin as payments vs. store of value 12:02 – Stablecoins relationship to bitcoin 15:58 - Censorship, de-banking & financial freedom 20:22 - Banks & bitcoin reserves 21:48 - Media coverage of bitcoin and how to fix broken incentives 26:42 - “Bitcoin Is For Everyone” 32:26 - How to measure inflation 34:53 - The money printer mountain 36:32 - Who is Satoshi? Does it matter? 37:51 - Selling the book and closing remarks

Anthony Pompliano 🌪

79,307 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

🐂 “What’s going to happen to Strategy is going to be absolutely mind blowing come summer/fall of 2025” - Preston Pysh sees insanity on the horizon. Michael Saylor’s playing a 4D game of chess that is carefully engineered around the BTC cycles. James Check (_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️) hasn’t studied $MSTR fully, but understands the market dynamics at play and what can happen to a equity that has a options market with absurd volatility that is tied to Bitcoin during a bull run. The velocity of the flywheel shows up as short sellers are forced to buy high, and $MSTR shareholders sell to convert to BTC. Listen to Preston and James discuss what’s in stor e for this cycle on the latest The Investor's Podcast episode. 🗯️ “The market moves slower than people expect, but being prepared puts you in a better position.” - James Check Key insights: 💼 Institutional Demand Holds Strong: After a 7-month consolidation above $1.2 trillion, Bitcoin proved its staying power. Every dip was met with significant buying, signaling strong institutional absorption. “Bitcoin belongs above $1 trillion—and now, $1.7 trillion,” says James Check. (02:29) 📊 On-Chain Trends: Long-term holders sold significantly during the consolidation, but selling pressure eased mid-November, paving the way for the current rally. Supply suffocation by holders below $20K creates a strong market floor. (09:02) 🏦 Evolving Exchange Dynamics: Borrowing against Bitcoin instead of selling it is maturing the market. This reduces sell pressure and positions BTC as pristine collateral, even drawing interest from traditional banks. (12:22) ⚡ Bullish Catalysts: A pro-Bitcoin U.S. president, ETF launches, and derivatives are energizing the market, with potential for explosive growth by 2025. However, risks like custody failures or copycat investing strategies loom. (28:30) 🔥 “Euphoria Zone” Alert: New retail interest is surging, yet historical patterns warn this euphoria may only last 6-18 months. Will Bitcoin hit $300K or consolidate before the next leg up? (59:13) Full video: #Bitcoin #Crypto #BTC #MarketTrends #FinancialFreedom

🐂 “What’s going to happen to Strategy is going to be absolutely mind blowing come summer/fall of 2025” - Preston Pysh sees insanity on the horizon. Michael Saylor’s playing a 4D game of chess that is carefully engineered around the BTC cycles. James Check (_Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️) hasn’t studied $MSTR fully, but understands the market dynamics at play and what can happen to a equity that has a options market with absurd volatility that is tied to Bitcoin during a bull run. The velocity of the flywheel shows up as short sellers are forced to buy high, and $MSTR shareholders sell to convert to BTC. Listen to Preston and James discuss what’s in stor e for this cycle on the latest The Investor's Podcast episode. 🗯️ “The market moves slower than people expect, but being prepared puts you in a better position.” - James Check Key insights: 💼 Institutional Demand Holds Strong: After a 7-month consolidation above $1.2 trillion, Bitcoin proved its staying power. Every dip was met with significant buying, signaling strong institutional absorption. “Bitcoin belongs above $1 trillion—and now, $1.7 trillion,” says James Check. (02:29) 📊 On-Chain Trends: Long-term holders sold significantly during the consolidation, but selling pressure eased mid-November, paving the way for the current rally. Supply suffocation by holders below $20K creates a strong market floor. (09:02) 🏦 Evolving Exchange Dynamics: Borrowing against Bitcoin instead of selling it is maturing the market. This reduces sell pressure and positions BTC as pristine collateral, even drawing interest from traditional banks. (12:22) ⚡ Bullish Catalysts: A pro-Bitcoin U.S. president, ETF launches, and derivatives are energizing the market, with potential for explosive growth by 2025. However, risks like custody failures or copycat investing strategies loom. (28:30) 🔥 “Euphoria Zone” Alert: New retail interest is surging, yet historical patterns warn this euphoria may only last 6-18 months. Will Bitcoin hit $300K or consolidate before the next leg up? (59:13) Full video: #Bitcoin #Crypto #BTC #MarketTrends #FinancialFreedom

J64

115,060 просмотров • 1 год назад

Why Bitcoin Didn’t Go Parabolic & What Comes Next (full episode) Root 🥕 with Walker⚡️ Is Bitcoin in a bear market? When will we hit the bottom? How long until bitcoin hits $1M? Walker sits down with Bitcoin analyst Rational Root for a deep dive into Bitcoin’s current market structure, bear market vibes, and why this cycle has felt so different, and whether the four-year cycle is still intact. Root argues Bitcoin is in a bear market phase, explains why institutional adoption and ETF flows created a more distributed top instead of a classic parabolic blow-off, and lays out why the next few months may look more like bottom formation than immediate breakout. They discuss the role of long-term holder distribution, why 100k became such a major psychological level, how business cycles and halving cycles interact, and why Bitcoin remains massively bullish long term even if price chops lower in the near term. CHAPTERS: 00:00 TRAILER: A Bitcoin Bear Market? 01:54 Current Vibe Check on Bitcoin 11:14 ETF Holdings and Institutional Adoption 17:17 The Diminishing Returns of Bitcoin 22:14 ETFs and Retail Demand 27:30 Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycles 36:23 Comparing Bitcoin to Prior Cycles 41:37 Diminishing Returns and Gold’s Price Action 50:41 What a Broken Bitcoin Spiral Looks Like 57:54 Measuring Bitcoin in Fiat 1:04:24 DCAing into Bitcoin

Why Bitcoin Didn’t Go Parabolic & What Comes Next (full episode) Root 🥕 with Walker⚡️ Is Bitcoin in a bear market? When will we hit the bottom? How long until bitcoin hits $1M? Walker sits down with Bitcoin analyst Rational Root for a deep dive into Bitcoin’s current market structure, bear market vibes, and why this cycle has felt so different, and whether the four-year cycle is still intact. Root argues Bitcoin is in a bear market phase, explains why institutional adoption and ETF flows created a more distributed top instead of a classic parabolic blow-off, and lays out why the next few months may look more like bottom formation than immediate breakout. They discuss the role of long-term holder distribution, why 100k became such a major psychological level, how business cycles and halving cycles interact, and why Bitcoin remains massively bullish long term even if price chops lower in the near term. CHAPTERS: 00:00 TRAILER: A Bitcoin Bear Market? 01:54 Current Vibe Check on Bitcoin 11:14 ETF Holdings and Institutional Adoption 17:17 The Diminishing Returns of Bitcoin 22:14 ETFs and Retail Demand 27:30 Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycles 36:23 Comparing Bitcoin to Prior Cycles 41:37 Diminishing Returns and Gold’s Price Action 50:41 What a Broken Bitcoin Spiral Looks Like 57:54 Measuring Bitcoin in Fiat 1:04:24 DCAing into Bitcoin

THE Bitcoin Podcast

10,535 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

Debunking the Flat Bitcoin Theory 🧵 In the early days of Bitcoin (2009-2014) there was a massive amount of experimentation and innovation on bitcoin The first NFTs and cryptoart started on Bitcoin The first memecoins started on Bitcoin The first stablecoins and real world assets started on Bitcoin The first dapps started on Bitcoin The first DEX started on Bitcoin The first on-chain governance started on Bitcoin The first crypto degens were playing Satoshi Dice on Bitcoin But then the OP_RETURN wars happened and people like Luke Dashjr vilified innovation and scared builders away resulting in a long period of stagnation (2015-2023) This period of stagnation gave birth to the Flat Bitcoin Theory which infected the minds of nearly everyone The Flat Bitcoin Theory is a belief held by "Flat Bitcoiners" who think that Bitcoin is a boring blockchain that is not capable of the innovative use cases that we see on alt L1s like Ethereum or Solana But thankfully in January 2023 Casey burst onto the scene with the ordinals protocol and one by one people have been waking up from this lie and realizing that Bitcoin is actually multidimensional and capable of everything you could possibly imagine and more Since then Bitcoin has experienced a renaissance of innovation with a new set of builders picking up where the set of OG builders left off Jeremy Lin | 🔄 DotSwap (On Nexus) from DOTSWAP•DOTSWAP - Official has defied all FUD and delivered a trustless liquidity pool style experience on Bitcoin L1 for Runes with zero MEV Stan from Sats Terminal has built an advanced order routing and aggregation engine for Runes trading on Bitcoin L1 Scott 🟠 from radFi has revived the Runes trenches with a token launchpad on Bitcoin L1 that thousands of people use every day Robin from Liquidium | Bitcoin Loans built a Runes and Ordinals lending protocol that has processed hundreds of millions of dollars of volume which proves that DeFi can thrive on Bitcoin L1 domo and Binari from BRC 2.0 and Tagga from Alkanes have been relentlessly pursing a vision for general purpose smart contracts on Bitcoin L1 TO from Pizza Pets built a fully on-chain multiplayer game directly on Bitcoin L1 Ken Liao from built a Bitcoin wallet for interacting with Bitcoin L1 dapps that is so sleek that it puts Ethereum's flagship wallet MetaMask to shame danny huuep from OnChainMonkey® pioneered a new way to store an entire 10K PFP collection on Bitcoin for only $23 that is now widely adopted by hundreds of other Ordinals collections SergeSats has formed the Bitcoin Art Society to preserve Bitcoin's on-chain culture for future generation has dedicated months of his life to ensuring that once a year there is a place where bitcoin builders can gather to celebrate experimentation on bitcoin at Bitcoin Summit Massive decentralized communities like the $DOG Army and Bitcoin Puppets have rallied together to support all of these innovations and champion the Bitcoin ecosystem Do not ever let anyone tell you that Bitcoin is not capable of something or that you must only use Bitcoin in a certain way The Bitcoin network is more secure and robust longterm when it is winning at developer mindshare and blocks are filled with a diverse set of on-chain activity It is up to us, the Ordinals, Runes, and Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem to be stewards of this technology now so go build the most badass applications possible and never stop fighting for innovation on Bitcoin!

Debunking the Flat Bitcoin Theory 🧵 In the early days of Bitcoin (2009-2014) there was a massive amount of experimentation and innovation on bitcoin The first NFTs and cryptoart started on Bitcoin The first memecoins started on Bitcoin The first stablecoins and real world assets started on Bitcoin The first dapps started on Bitcoin The first DEX started on Bitcoin The first on-chain governance started on Bitcoin The first crypto degens were playing Satoshi Dice on Bitcoin But then the OP_RETURN wars happened and people like Luke Dashjr vilified innovation and scared builders away resulting in a long period of stagnation (2015-2023) This period of stagnation gave birth to the Flat Bitcoin Theory which infected the minds of nearly everyone The Flat Bitcoin Theory is a belief held by "Flat Bitcoiners" who think that Bitcoin is a boring blockchain that is not capable of the innovative use cases that we see on alt L1s like Ethereum or Solana But thankfully in January 2023 Casey burst onto the scene with the ordinals protocol and one by one people have been waking up from this lie and realizing that Bitcoin is actually multidimensional and capable of everything you could possibly imagine and more Since then Bitcoin has experienced a renaissance of innovation with a new set of builders picking up where the set of OG builders left off Jeremy Lin | 🔄 DotSwap (On Nexus) from DOTSWAP•DOTSWAP - Official has defied all FUD and delivered a trustless liquidity pool style experience on Bitcoin L1 for Runes with zero MEV Stan from Sats Terminal has built an advanced order routing and aggregation engine for Runes trading on Bitcoin L1 Scott 🟠 from radFi has revived the Runes trenches with a token launchpad on Bitcoin L1 that thousands of people use every day Robin from Liquidium | Bitcoin Loans built a Runes and Ordinals lending protocol that has processed hundreds of millions of dollars of volume which proves that DeFi can thrive on Bitcoin L1 domo and Binari from BRC 2.0 and Tagga from Alkanes have been relentlessly pursing a vision for general purpose smart contracts on Bitcoin L1 TO from Pizza Pets built a fully on-chain multiplayer game directly on Bitcoin L1 Ken Liao from built a Bitcoin wallet for interacting with Bitcoin L1 dapps that is so sleek that it puts Ethereum's flagship wallet MetaMask to shame danny huuep from OnChainMonkey® pioneered a new way to store an entire 10K PFP collection on Bitcoin for only $23 that is now widely adopted by hundreds of other Ordinals collections SergeSats has formed the Bitcoin Art Society to preserve Bitcoin's on-chain culture for future generation has dedicated months of his life to ensuring that once a year there is a place where bitcoin builders can gather to celebrate experimentation on bitcoin at Bitcoin Summit Massive decentralized communities like the $DOG Army and Bitcoin Puppets have rallied together to support all of these innovations and champion the Bitcoin ecosystem Do not ever let anyone tell you that Bitcoin is not capable of something or that you must only use Bitcoin in a certain way The Bitcoin network is more secure and robust longterm when it is winning at developer mindshare and blocks are filled with a diverse set of on-chain activity It is up to us, the Ordinals, Runes, and Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem to be stewards of this technology now so go build the most badass applications possible and never stop fighting for innovation on Bitcoin!

Leonidas 🧡 $DOG

62,956 просмотров • 10 месяцев назад

📺 The Bitcoin For Corporations Show Episode 8 now live — hosted by Pierre Rochard Phong Le, CEO of Strategy, shares how MSTR became the world’s first Bitcoin-native public company—and why it’s more than just a software stock. From capital markets to balance sheet strategy, Phong lays out the new rules of valuation in the #Bitcoin era. 00:00 – Intro: How to Value a Bitcoin Treasury Company 01:28 – Phong Le on Strategy’s Bitcoin Thesis 04:45 – Why MSTR Isn’t Just a Tech Stock Anymore 08:12 – The Role of FASB Accounting in Bitcoin Adoption 11:39 – Capital Markets: Equity, Debt & Bitcoin 15:20 – Convertible Bonds & Leveraged Bitcoin Exposure 19:05 – What Investors Miss When Valuing MSTR 23:34 – How Institutions View Bitcoin 27:48 – Risks, Volatility, and Shareholder Expectations 32:15 – Bitcoin’s Role in Long-Term Corporate Strategy 36:20 – Advice for Other Bitcoin Treasury Companies 39:12 – Building a Bitcoin-Backed Capital Market 43:10 – Addressing Bitcoin Volatility 46:00 – Why STRF Is Gaining Market Traction 48:30 – Final Thoughts from Phong Le

📺 The Bitcoin For Corporations Show Episode 8 now live — hosted by Pierre Rochard Phong Le, CEO of Strategy, shares how MSTR became the world’s first Bitcoin-native public company—and why it’s more than just a software stock. From capital markets to balance sheet strategy, Phong lays out the new rules of valuation in the #Bitcoin era. 00:00 – Intro: How to Value a Bitcoin Treasury Company 01:28 – Phong Le on Strategy’s Bitcoin Thesis 04:45 – Why MSTR Isn’t Just a Tech Stock Anymore 08:12 – The Role of FASB Accounting in Bitcoin Adoption 11:39 – Capital Markets: Equity, Debt & Bitcoin 15:20 – Convertible Bonds & Leveraged Bitcoin Exposure 19:05 – What Investors Miss When Valuing MSTR 23:34 – How Institutions View Bitcoin 27:48 – Risks, Volatility, and Shareholder Expectations 32:15 – Bitcoin’s Role in Long-Term Corporate Strategy 36:20 – Advice for Other Bitcoin Treasury Companies 39:12 – Building a Bitcoin-Backed Capital Market 43:10 – Addressing Bitcoin Volatility 46:00 – Why STRF Is Gaining Market Traction 48:30 – Final Thoughts from Phong Le

Bitcoin For Corporations

237,146 просмотров • 1 год назад

Coinbase CEO: Bitcoin Has Likely Bottomed Around $60K On June 11, 2026, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong Brian Armstrong joined the Moonshots with Peter Diamandis podcast to share his outlook on Bitcoin's recent market performance. Armstrong analyzed that the short-term downturn was driven by three main factors: risk capital shifting toward the AI sector, the growing excitement around stablecoins due to regulatory clarity, and a cooling inflation outlook that made Bitcoin's traditional inflation trade less appealing. However, his instinct is that Bitcoin has likely bottomed out around the $60,000 mark. Armstrong believes these are purely short-term effects and that Bitcoin, as the new digital gold, will be a key part of the future economy. Remaining optimistic, he expects a much higher price by 2030 and states he is long on Bitcoin just like always.

Coinbase CEO: Bitcoin Has Likely Bottomed Around $60K On June 11, 2026, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong Brian Armstrong joined the Moonshots with Peter Diamandis podcast to share his outlook on Bitcoin's recent market performance. Armstrong analyzed that the short-term downturn was driven by three main factors: risk capital shifting toward the AI sector, the growing excitement around stablecoins due to regulatory clarity, and a cooling inflation outlook that made Bitcoin's traditional inflation trade less appealing. However, his instinct is that Bitcoin has likely bottomed out around the $60,000 mark. Armstrong believes these are purely short-term effects and that Bitcoin, as the new digital gold, will be a key part of the future economy. Remaining optimistic, he expects a much higher price by 2030 and states he is long on Bitcoin just like always.

Wu Blockchain

15,016 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Chris Millas

36,835 просмотров • 10 месяцев назад