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Bitcoin is down 46% from its ATH. But here’s the real question no one’s asking: What happens to BTC if the stock market actually crashes? I broke down the correlation, drawdowns, and a quantified worst-case scenario 👇🏼

On-Chain Mind

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22,702 views • 5 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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🚨 THE STOCK MARKET IS SITTING AT THE MOST OVERVALUED LEVEL IN HISTORY. Stocks haven't even started selling yet. $BTC is already down 50% from its all-time high. This drop happened WITHOUT a stock market crash. What happens to crypto when the S&P actually rolls over?

🚨 THE STOCK MARKET IS SITTING AT THE MOST OVERVALUED LEVEL IN HISTORY. Stocks haven't even started selling yet. $BTC is already down 50% from its all-time high. This drop happened WITHOUT a stock market crash. What happens to crypto when the S&P actually rolls over?

Crypto Rover

139,632 views • 2 months ago

🩸 THE BIGGEST BITCOIN TREASURY ON EARTH IS UNWINDING IN REAL TIME. Strategy is down 84% from its high. Tens of billions in market value gone. Its preferred stock $STRC was built to hold a $100 peg. It just broke to $75. Here is why this matters to all of Bitcoin. $MSTR did not just buy Bitcoin. It borrowed to buy Bitcoin. That structure is a rocket when price rises. And a trap when price falls. bitcoin:native is down 52% and the trap is closing. This is the leverage washing out of the entire market.

🩸 THE BIGGEST BITCOIN TREASURY ON EARTH IS UNWINDING IN REAL TIME. Strategy is down 84% from its high. Tens of billions in market value gone. Its preferred stock $STRC was built to hold a $100 peg. It just broke to $75. Here is why this matters to all of Bitcoin. $MSTR did not just buy Bitcoin. It borrowed to buy Bitcoin. That structure is a rocket when price rises. And a trap when price falls. bitcoin:native is down 52% and the trap is closing. This is the leverage washing out of the entire market.

Mister Crypto

16,950 views • 1 month ago

The worst way to deal with a tyrant is to make a threat and then back down. But I still hope we have a chance to prevent the worst-case scenario. BBC News (World) | Matthew Amroliwala

The worst way to deal with a tyrant is to make a threat and then back down. But I still hope we have a chance to prevent the worst-case scenario. BBC News (World) | Matthew Amroliwala

Kira Rudik

14,838 views • 1 year ago

When will Bitcoin hit its bottom? Ben Cowen breaks down the correlation between S&P 500 corrections and BTC cycles, pointing toward a shaky Q4. Is a scary drop ahead? #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Investing

When will Bitcoin hit its bottom? Ben Cowen breaks down the correlation between S&P 500 corrections and BTC cycles, pointing toward a shaky Q4. Is a scary drop ahead? #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Investing

Gabbie

46,042 views • 2 months ago

Strive (ASST) is set up to absolutely moon. The catapult has been loaded. ASST holders might have this question: What happens to common equity if Bitcoin rises and the balance sheet either stays static or keeps accumulating through SATA issuance? Using CEBE math, I modeled two scenarios with Bitcoin going from roughly $68.5k to $126k. Scenario 1: Static balance sheet No new Bitcoin. No new SATA. No additional capital formation. Just the existing balance sheet riding Bitcoin higher. In that scenario, ASST goes from roughly $15.86 to $37.24. That is still a very strong outcome, because the company’s existing Bitcoin exposure appreciates and CEBE per share rises as fixed senior claims shrink in BTC terms. At $126k Bitcoin, CEBE reaches roughly 17,488 sats per share. $37.24 stock price with the multiple staying flat and zero new Bitcoin purchased :) Scenario 2: $200 million of SATA issued every month Same Bitcoin path. Same starting point. But Strive adds $200 million of SATA every month and uses it to acquire more Bitcoin. In this scenario, the stock goes from roughly $15.86 to $54.21. CEBE rises to roughly 25,456 sats per share. The Bitcoin stack grows from about 19,000 BTC to roughly 45,900 BTC. This is where the mechanism gets violent. The static balance sheet benefits from Bitcoin appreciation. The SATA issuance scenario benefits from Bitcoin appreciation plus monthly balance sheet expansion. That means the common equity is not simply waiting for Bitcoin to go up. It is watching the company potentially compound its Bitcoin exposure while the denominator gets partially protected by the capital structure. At the end of the model: Static case: $37.24 stock price SATA monthly case: $54.21 stock price Difference: +$16.97 per share Relative uplift: about 45.6% If SATA issuance is done at attractive terms and deployed into Bitcoin, the common wins big after Bitcoin moons. That is the whole game. This is amplified Bitcoin. And if the market starts pricing that correctly, the stock does not merely track Bitcoin. It can re-rate around the speed and quality of true Bitcoin-per-share growth:

Strive (ASST) is set up to absolutely moon. The catapult has been loaded. ASST holders might have this question: What happens to common equity if Bitcoin rises and the balance sheet either stays static or keeps accumulating through SATA issuance? Using CEBE math, I modeled two scenarios with Bitcoin going from roughly $68.5k to $126k. Scenario 1: Static balance sheet No new Bitcoin. No new SATA. No additional capital formation. Just the existing balance sheet riding Bitcoin higher. In that scenario, ASST goes from roughly $15.86 to $37.24. That is still a very strong outcome, because the company’s existing Bitcoin exposure appreciates and CEBE per share rises as fixed senior claims shrink in BTC terms. At $126k Bitcoin, CEBE reaches roughly 17,488 sats per share. $37.24 stock price with the multiple staying flat and zero new Bitcoin purchased :) Scenario 2: $200 million of SATA issued every month Same Bitcoin path. Same starting point. But Strive adds $200 million of SATA every month and uses it to acquire more Bitcoin. In this scenario, the stock goes from roughly $15.86 to $54.21. CEBE rises to roughly 25,456 sats per share. The Bitcoin stack grows from about 19,000 BTC to roughly 45,900 BTC. This is where the mechanism gets violent. The static balance sheet benefits from Bitcoin appreciation. The SATA issuance scenario benefits from Bitcoin appreciation plus monthly balance sheet expansion. That means the common equity is not simply waiting for Bitcoin to go up. It is watching the company potentially compound its Bitcoin exposure while the denominator gets partially protected by the capital structure. At the end of the model: Static case: $37.24 stock price SATA monthly case: $54.21 stock price Difference: +$16.97 per share Relative uplift: about 45.6% If SATA issuance is done at attractive terms and deployed into Bitcoin, the common wins big after Bitcoin moons. That is the whole game. This is amplified Bitcoin. And if the market starts pricing that correctly, the stock does not merely track Bitcoin. It can re-rate around the speed and quality of true Bitcoin-per-share growth:

Adam Livingston

14,499 views • 2 months ago

Bitcoin up 13% since November 2024. Ethereum up 14% in the same stretch. A year and a half and basically the same return. The BTC vs altcoin war online is louder than the actual gap. I know BTC has had its ATH in between, but I'd argue Bitcoin hasn't even had its real bull market yet, and that should get even BTC-only holders excited. Intro 00:00 Bitcoin vs. altcoins 00:45 Bitcoin hasn’t had bull market? 4:20 BTC and ETH returns 7:45 Crypto price action and support 11:45

Bitcoin up 13% since November 2024. Ethereum up 14% in the same stretch. A year and a half and basically the same return. The BTC vs altcoin war online is louder than the actual gap. I know BTC has had its ATH in between, but I'd argue Bitcoin hasn't even had its real bull market yet, and that should get even BTC-only holders excited. Intro 00:00 Bitcoin vs. altcoins 00:45 Bitcoin hasn’t had bull market? 4:20 BTC and ETH returns 7:45 Crypto price action and support 11:45

Dan Gambardello

17,037 views • 2 months ago

MetaPlanet traded at 10x its mNAV. For what? Bobbing up and down with the price of Bitcoin? If the market pays 10x for a treasury that bobs, what is one that makes money in any market actually worth? [long: $SRXH]

MetaPlanet traded at 10x its mNAV. For what? Bobbing up and down with the price of Bitcoin? If the market pays 10x for a treasury that bobs, what is one that makes money in any market actually worth? [long: $SRXH]

Eric Jackson

20,658 views • 28 days ago

🚨SUPPORT IS IN THE "LOW 40s" IF $59K BREAKS Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton says BTC has failed at its 200-day MA and is sitting on a key Fibonacci level that, if broken, "oftentimes a full retracement happens." Stockton added that 75% to 80% drawdowns are still possible, but Bitcoin is long-term oversold and needs "a couple, three weeks of stabilization" before she's convinced the bottom is in. BTC is currently down over 50% from its all-time high of $125K.

🚨SUPPORT IS IN THE "LOW 40s" IF $59K BREAKS Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton says BTC has failed at its 200-day MA and is sitting on a key Fibonacci level that, if broken, "oftentimes a full retracement happens." Stockton added that 75% to 80% drawdowns are still possible, but Bitcoin is long-term oversold and needs "a couple, three weeks of stabilization" before she's convinced the bottom is in. BTC is currently down over 50% from its all-time high of $125K.

Coin Bureau

90,167 views • 1 month ago

$$BTC A clip from SZ's livestream 👇 He broke down Bitcoin on the daily timeframe and compared it to previous market fractals. Based on that structure, there’s a potential swing long setting up here. Nothing is guaranteed but the similarities are worth paying attention to.$

$BTC A clip from SZ's livestream 👇 He broke down Bitcoin on the daily timeframe and compared it to previous market fractals. Based on that structure, there’s a potential swing long setting up here. Nothing is guaranteed but the similarities are worth paying attention to.

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67,731 views • 4 months ago

The next question is... If the oil market is so tight, why haven't prices exploded? One theory: 🔹 China has dramatically reduced its oil imports. 🔹 But demand for gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel hasn't collapsed. So where is the oil coming from? If China has been drawing down its own stockpiles instead of buying on the global market... What happens when it has to start buying again?

The next question is... If the oil market is so tight, why haven't prices exploded? One theory: 🔹 China has dramatically reduced its oil imports. 🔹 But demand for gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel hasn't collapsed. So where is the oil coming from? If China has been drawing down its own stockpiles instead of buying on the global market... What happens when it has to start buying again?

Shazi

48,202 views • 1 month ago

Bitcoin whales are selling fast! BUT, this time, it’s actually bullish. I break down the real reason behind the move and what it means for the next phase of the market. Watch NOW on Crypto Insider:

Bitcoin whales are selling fast! BUT, this time, it’s actually bullish. I break down the real reason behind the move and what it means for the next phase of the market. Watch NOW on Crypto Insider:

Ran Neuner

98,968 views • 9 months ago

🚨 THE CRASH IS NOT STOPPING AND MICHAEL SAYLOR IS NOW IN REAL TROUBLE. Bitcoin just crashed nearly -5% in 30 minutes. $BTC hit a NEW 21-MONTH LOW. $STRC collapsed to a NEW ALL-TIME LOW. $MSTR is already down over -83% from its peaK. Read that again. Bitcoin is breaking down. STRC is breaking down. MSTR is breaking down. All at the same time. This is no longer just a crypto dump. This is the market starting to ask the question nobody wanted to ask: Could Strategy eventually be forced to sell Bitcoin? Because if liquidity keeps disappearing… Saylor’s Bitcoin empire becomes the next domino. Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS. I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again, that’s literally my job. If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.

🚨 THE CRASH IS NOT STOPPING AND MICHAEL SAYLOR IS NOW IN REAL TROUBLE. Bitcoin just crashed nearly -5% in 30 minutes. $BTC hit a NEW 21-MONTH LOW. $STRC collapsed to a NEW ALL-TIME LOW. $MSTR is already down over -83% from its peaK. Read that again. Bitcoin is breaking down. STRC is breaking down. MSTR is breaking down. All at the same time. This is no longer just a crypto dump. This is the market starting to ask the question nobody wanted to ask: Could Strategy eventually be forced to sell Bitcoin? Because if liquidity keeps disappearing… Saylor’s Bitcoin empire becomes the next domino. Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS. I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again, that’s literally my job. If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.

DANNY

120,212 views • 1 month ago

If you're looking for a great escapist read, a summer blockbuster book that you will not be able to put down, look no further than Worst Case Scenario, the instant New York Times bestseller from TJ Newman (Available NOW: WORST CASE SCENARIO) (#1 bestselling author of Falling)

If you're looking for a great escapist read, a summer blockbuster book that you will not be able to put down, look no further than Worst Case Scenario, the instant New York Times bestseller from TJ Newman (Available NOW: WORST CASE SCENARIO) (#1 bestselling author of Falling)

Don Winslow

24,796 views • 1 year ago

🚨 BITCOIN AND SOFTWARE STOCKS HAVE MOVED AS TWINS SINCE 2021. $IGV (software ETF) just broke to new highs. Bitcoin? Down 3.73% on the week, sitting at $70.8K. The correlation didn't weaken. It completely snapped. $BTC looks extremely weak.

🚨 BITCOIN AND SOFTWARE STOCKS HAVE MOVED AS TWINS SINCE 2021. $IGV (software ETF) just broke to new highs. Bitcoin? Down 3.73% on the week, sitting at $70.8K. The correlation didn't weaken. It completely snapped. $BTC looks extremely weak.

Crypto Rover

58,717 views • 2 months ago

$BTC We’re not bulls by choice, but we're bulls because price action tells us that's the trend. Here is a critical 15-minute in-depth video update on #Bitcoin. I break it down from a top-down perspective combining the Elliott Wave Theory and market psychology.

$BTC We’re not bulls by choice, but we're bulls because price action tells us that's the trend. Here is a critical 15-minute in-depth video update on #Bitcoin. I break it down from a top-down perspective combining the Elliott Wave Theory and market psychology.

XForceGlobal

13,292 views • 1 year ago

BTC JUST CONFIRMED THE WORST CASE Mid-term roadmap: $67K → pullback, relief bounce $59K → acceptance below, sell-off begins Range → short consolidation Below $49K→ massive drop, next leg down This is the next wave down, not the bottom I called the ATH, the drop from $126K to $60K The people who followed early avoided the worst of it Turn on notifications - you don't want to miss the next call

BTC JUST CONFIRMED THE WORST CASE Mid-term roadmap: $67K → pullback, relief bounce $59K → acceptance below, sell-off begins Range → short consolidation Below $49K→ massive drop, next leg down This is the next wave down, not the bottom I called the ATH, the drop from $126K to $60K The people who followed early avoided the worst of it Turn on notifications - you don't want to miss the next call

philarekt

27,424 views • 2 months ago

Bitcoin usually bottoms after a correction in the U.S. stock market during the second half of the final year of its four-year cycle. Look at the pattern: 2015, 2018, 2022, 2026. So the real question is not about Bitcoin, it is about stocks. Is the US market about to crash?

Bitcoin usually bottoms after a correction in the U.S. stock market during the second half of the final year of its four-year cycle. Look at the pattern: 2015, 2018, 2022, 2026. So the real question is not about Bitcoin, it is about stocks. Is the US market about to crash?

Crypto Rover

87,573 views • 1 month ago

🇺🇸 SOMETHING INSANELY BAD IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO THE U.S. STOCK MARKET. According to an old Wall Street market cycle paper, the S&P-500 is currently in the Euphoria stage. What comes next is an insane market crash below $2,000. If that happens, it will be worse then what we saw in 2008 and the dot-com crash in 2000. It will be written down in history books as the worst market crash. Most people are over-leveraged and not prepared for this. Regardless of what happens, always expect the worst. Stay prepared.

🇺🇸 SOMETHING INSANELY BAD IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO THE U.S. STOCK MARKET. According to an old Wall Street market cycle paper, the S&P-500 is currently in the Euphoria stage. What comes next is an insane market crash below $2,000. If that happens, it will be worse then what we saw in 2008 and the dot-com crash in 2000. It will be written down in history books as the worst market crash. Most people are over-leveraged and not prepared for this. Regardless of what happens, always expect the worst. Stay prepared.

Coinvo Trading

81,642 views • 2 months ago

Andrew Tate explains what will happen to the crypto market if Trump loses the elections. “I expect bitcoin to go to $35K and the entire stock market to tank”

Andrew Tate explains what will happen to the crypto market if Trump loses the elections. “I expect bitcoin to go to $35K and the entire stock market to tank”

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138,663 views • 1 year ago