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Bitcoin is down 46% from its ATH. But here’s the real question no one’s asking: What happens to BTC if the stock market actually crashes? I broke down the correlation, drawdowns, and a quantified worst-case scenario 👇🏼

On-Chain Mind

13,478 subscribers

22,716 次观看 • 7 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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🚨 THE STOCK MARKET IS SITTING AT THE MOST OVERVALUED LEVEL IN HISTORY. Stocks haven't even started selling yet. $BTC is already down 50% from its all-time high. This drop happened WITHOUT a stock market crash. What happens to crypto when the S&P actually rolls over?

🚨 THE STOCK MARKET IS SITTING AT THE MOST OVERVALUED LEVEL IN HISTORY. Stocks haven't even started selling yet. $BTC is already down 50% from its all-time high. This drop happened WITHOUT a stock market crash. What happens to crypto when the S&P actually rolls over?

Crypto Rover

139,689 次观看 • 4 个月前

Everyone is asking me where Bitcoin goes next. Wrong question. The real question is: what just changed the probability? Today’s US Jobs Data could change the maths for Bitcoin, Gold, Stocks and Crypto. I broke it down so simply that even if you’ve never traded, you’ll understand what the market is pricing. And there’s one Bitcoin scenario nobody should ignore right now. Feelings are for people. Probabilities are for markets. Trade the data, not your heart. 📊 Watch before today’s data hits. #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Gold #NFP #JobsReport #Trading

Everyone is asking me where Bitcoin goes next. Wrong question. The real question is: what just changed the probability? Today’s US Jobs Data could change the maths for Bitcoin, Gold, Stocks and Crypto. I broke it down so simply that even if you’ve never traded, you’ll understand what the market is pricing. And there’s one Bitcoin scenario nobody should ignore right now. Feelings are for people. Probabilities are for markets. Trade the data, not your heart. 📊 Watch before today’s data hits. #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Gold #NFP #JobsReport #Trading

Waqar Zaka

111,384 次观看 • 1 个月前

🩸 THE BIGGEST BITCOIN TREASURY ON EARTH IS UNWINDING IN REAL TIME. Strategy is down 84% from its high. Tens of billions in market value gone. Its preferred stock $STRC was built to hold a $100 peg. It just broke to $75. Here is why this matters to all of Bitcoin. $MSTR did not just buy Bitcoin. It borrowed to buy Bitcoin. That structure is a rocket when price rises. And a trap when price falls. bitcoin:native is down 52% and the trap is closing. This is the leverage washing out of the entire market.

🩸 THE BIGGEST BITCOIN TREASURY ON EARTH IS UNWINDING IN REAL TIME. Strategy is down 84% from its high. Tens of billions in market value gone. Its preferred stock $STRC was built to hold a $100 peg. It just broke to $75. Here is why this matters to all of Bitcoin. $MSTR did not just buy Bitcoin. It borrowed to buy Bitcoin. That structure is a rocket when price rises. And a trap when price falls. bitcoin:native is down 52% and the trap is closing. This is the leverage washing out of the entire market.

Mister Crypto

17,277 次观看 • 3 个月前

When will Bitcoin hit its bottom? Ben Cowen breaks down the correlation between S&P 500 corrections and BTC cycles, pointing toward a shaky Q4. Is a scary drop ahead? #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Investing

When will Bitcoin hit its bottom? Ben Cowen breaks down the correlation between S&P 500 corrections and BTC cycles, pointing toward a shaky Q4. Is a scary drop ahead? #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #Investing

Gabbie

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The worst way to deal with a tyrant is to make a threat and then back down. But I still hope we have a chance to prevent the worst-case scenario. BBC News (World) | Matthew Amroliwala

The worst way to deal with a tyrant is to make a threat and then back down. But I still hope we have a chance to prevent the worst-case scenario. BBC News (World) | Matthew Amroliwala

Kira Rudik

14,838 次观看 • 1 年前

$AVGO earnings are coming up this week. In this video, I break down where I think the stock is headed, the exact levels where I’d look to buy or average down, and the worst-case scenario for the week ahead. Don’t miss it.

$AVGO earnings are coming up this week. In this video, I break down where I think the stock is headed, the exact levels where I’d look to buy or average down, and the worst-case scenario for the week ahead. Don’t miss it.

Peter DiCarlo

118,688 次观看 • 1 个月前

Strive (ASST) is set up to absolutely moon. The catapult has been loaded. ASST holders might have this question: What happens to common equity if Bitcoin rises and the balance sheet either stays static or keeps accumulating through SATA issuance? Using CEBE math, I modeled two scenarios with Bitcoin going from roughly $68.5k to $126k. Scenario 1: Static balance sheet No new Bitcoin. No new SATA. No additional capital formation. Just the existing balance sheet riding Bitcoin higher. In that scenario, ASST goes from roughly $15.86 to $37.24. That is still a very strong outcome, because the company’s existing Bitcoin exposure appreciates and CEBE per share rises as fixed senior claims shrink in BTC terms. At $126k Bitcoin, CEBE reaches roughly 17,488 sats per share. $37.24 stock price with the multiple staying flat and zero new Bitcoin purchased :) Scenario 2: $200 million of SATA issued every month Same Bitcoin path. Same starting point. But Strive adds $200 million of SATA every month and uses it to acquire more Bitcoin. In this scenario, the stock goes from roughly $15.86 to $54.21. CEBE rises to roughly 25,456 sats per share. The Bitcoin stack grows from about 19,000 BTC to roughly 45,900 BTC. This is where the mechanism gets violent. The static balance sheet benefits from Bitcoin appreciation. The SATA issuance scenario benefits from Bitcoin appreciation plus monthly balance sheet expansion. That means the common equity is not simply waiting for Bitcoin to go up. It is watching the company potentially compound its Bitcoin exposure while the denominator gets partially protected by the capital structure. At the end of the model: Static case: $37.24 stock price SATA monthly case: $54.21 stock price Difference: +$16.97 per share Relative uplift: about 45.6% If SATA issuance is done at attractive terms and deployed into Bitcoin, the common wins big after Bitcoin moons. That is the whole game. This is amplified Bitcoin. And if the market starts pricing that correctly, the stock does not merely track Bitcoin. It can re-rate around the speed and quality of true Bitcoin-per-share growth:

Strive (ASST) is set up to absolutely moon. The catapult has been loaded. ASST holders might have this question: What happens to common equity if Bitcoin rises and the balance sheet either stays static or keeps accumulating through SATA issuance? Using CEBE math, I modeled two scenarios with Bitcoin going from roughly $68.5k to $126k. Scenario 1: Static balance sheet No new Bitcoin. No new SATA. No additional capital formation. Just the existing balance sheet riding Bitcoin higher. In that scenario, ASST goes from roughly $15.86 to $37.24. That is still a very strong outcome, because the company’s existing Bitcoin exposure appreciates and CEBE per share rises as fixed senior claims shrink in BTC terms. At $126k Bitcoin, CEBE reaches roughly 17,488 sats per share. $37.24 stock price with the multiple staying flat and zero new Bitcoin purchased :) Scenario 2: $200 million of SATA issued every month Same Bitcoin path. Same starting point. But Strive adds $200 million of SATA every month and uses it to acquire more Bitcoin. In this scenario, the stock goes from roughly $15.86 to $54.21. CEBE rises to roughly 25,456 sats per share. The Bitcoin stack grows from about 19,000 BTC to roughly 45,900 BTC. This is where the mechanism gets violent. The static balance sheet benefits from Bitcoin appreciation. The SATA issuance scenario benefits from Bitcoin appreciation plus monthly balance sheet expansion. That means the common equity is not simply waiting for Bitcoin to go up. It is watching the company potentially compound its Bitcoin exposure while the denominator gets partially protected by the capital structure. At the end of the model: Static case: $37.24 stock price SATA monthly case: $54.21 stock price Difference: +$16.97 per share Relative uplift: about 45.6% If SATA issuance is done at attractive terms and deployed into Bitcoin, the common wins big after Bitcoin moons. That is the whole game. This is amplified Bitcoin. And if the market starts pricing that correctly, the stock does not merely track Bitcoin. It can re-rate around the speed and quality of true Bitcoin-per-share growth:

Adam Livingston

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Bitcoin up 13% since November 2024. Ethereum up 14% in the same stretch. A year and a half and basically the same return. The BTC vs altcoin war online is louder than the actual gap. I know BTC has had its ATH in between, but I'd argue Bitcoin hasn't even had its real bull market yet, and that should get even BTC-only holders excited. Intro 00:00 Bitcoin vs. altcoins 00:45 Bitcoin hasn’t had bull market? 4:20 BTC and ETH returns 7:45 Crypto price action and support 11:45

Bitcoin up 13% since November 2024. Ethereum up 14% in the same stretch. A year and a half and basically the same return. The BTC vs altcoin war online is louder than the actual gap. I know BTC has had its ATH in between, but I'd argue Bitcoin hasn't even had its real bull market yet, and that should get even BTC-only holders excited. Intro 00:00 Bitcoin vs. altcoins 00:45 Bitcoin hasn’t had bull market? 4:20 BTC and ETH returns 7:45 Crypto price action and support 11:45

Dan Gambardello

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MetaPlanet traded at 10x its mNAV. For what? Bobbing up and down with the price of Bitcoin? If the market pays 10x for a treasury that bobs, what is one that makes money in any market actually worth? [long: $SRXH]

MetaPlanet traded at 10x its mNAV. For what? Bobbing up and down with the price of Bitcoin? If the market pays 10x for a treasury that bobs, what is one that makes money in any market actually worth? [long: $SRXH]

Eric Jackson

25,271 次观看 • 2 个月前

🚨SUPPORT IS IN THE "LOW 40s" IF $59K BREAKS Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton says BTC has failed at its 200-day MA and is sitting on a key Fibonacci level that, if broken, "oftentimes a full retracement happens." Stockton added that 75% to 80% drawdowns are still possible, but Bitcoin is long-term oversold and needs "a couple, three weeks of stabilization" before she's convinced the bottom is in. BTC is currently down over 50% from its all-time high of $125K.

🚨SUPPORT IS IN THE "LOW 40s" IF $59K BREAKS Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton says BTC has failed at its 200-day MA and is sitting on a key Fibonacci level that, if broken, "oftentimes a full retracement happens." Stockton added that 75% to 80% drawdowns are still possible, but Bitcoin is long-term oversold and needs "a couple, three weeks of stabilization" before she's convinced the bottom is in. BTC is currently down over 50% from its all-time high of $125K.

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$BTC A clip from SZ's livestream 👇 He broke down Bitcoin on the daily timeframe and compared it to previous market fractals. Based on that structure, there’s a potential swing long setting up here. Nothing is guaranteed but the similarities are worth paying attention to.

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The next question is... If the oil market is so tight, why haven't prices exploded? One theory: 🔹 China has dramatically reduced its oil imports. 🔹 But demand for gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel hasn't collapsed. So where is the oil coming from? If China has been drawing down its own stockpiles instead of buying on the global market... What happens when it has to start buying again?

The next question is... If the oil market is so tight, why haven't prices exploded? One theory: 🔹 China has dramatically reduced its oil imports. 🔹 But demand for gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel hasn't collapsed. So where is the oil coming from? If China has been drawing down its own stockpiles instead of buying on the global market... What happens when it has to start buying again?

Shazi

48,202 次观看 • 3 个月前

🚨 THE CRASH IS NOT STOPPING AND MICHAEL SAYLOR IS NOW IN REAL TROUBLE. Bitcoin just crashed nearly -5% in 30 minutes. $BTC hit a NEW 21-MONTH LOW. $STRC collapsed to a NEW ALL-TIME LOW. $MSTR is already down over -83% from its peaK. Read that again. Bitcoin is breaking down. STRC is breaking down. MSTR is breaking down. All at the same time. This is no longer just a crypto dump. This is the market starting to ask the question nobody wanted to ask: Could Strategy eventually be forced to sell Bitcoin? Because if liquidity keeps disappearing… Saylor’s Bitcoin empire becomes the next domino. Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS. I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again, that’s literally my job. If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.

🚨 THE CRASH IS NOT STOPPING AND MICHAEL SAYLOR IS NOW IN REAL TROUBLE. Bitcoin just crashed nearly -5% in 30 minutes. $BTC hit a NEW 21-MONTH LOW. $STRC collapsed to a NEW ALL-TIME LOW. $MSTR is already down over -83% from its peaK. Read that again. Bitcoin is breaking down. STRC is breaking down. MSTR is breaking down. All at the same time. This is no longer just a crypto dump. This is the market starting to ask the question nobody wanted to ask: Could Strategy eventually be forced to sell Bitcoin? Because if liquidity keeps disappearing… Saylor’s Bitcoin empire becomes the next domino. Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS. I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again, that’s literally my job. If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.

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🚨 BITCOIN AND SOFTWARE STOCKS HAVE MOVED AS TWINS SINCE 2021. $IGV (software ETF) just broke to new highs. Bitcoin? Down 3.73% on the week, sitting at $70.8K. The correlation didn't weaken. It completely snapped. $BTC looks extremely weak.

🚨 BITCOIN AND SOFTWARE STOCKS HAVE MOVED AS TWINS SINCE 2021. $IGV (software ETF) just broke to new highs. Bitcoin? Down 3.73% on the week, sitting at $70.8K. The correlation didn't weaken. It completely snapped. $BTC looks extremely weak.

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JUST IN: VanEck says the Bitcoin bear market is over. "There's nothing to worry about, even if BTC eventually trades down to $78k."

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Bitcoin Archive

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The Most Bullish Bitcoin Macro Setup in HISTORY?! Bitcoin is ripping higher while real yields are near the highest levels in the post-2010 data, the dollar is basically flat, and macro conditions are still far from an obvious tailwind. In this video, I break down why Bitcoin gaining roughly 18.5% through a major real-rate tightening window may be one of the most important signals in the market right now. We’ll look at the Treasury curve, DXY, gold, oil, inflation expectations, credit, and Bitcoin priced in gold to figure out what regime we’re actually in. Then we test the historical data to see how Bitcoin has behaved when the dollar and real yields move together, and what could happen if those headwinds eventually reverse. The big question is simple: if Bitcoin is already this strong before the macro tailwind arrives, what happens when the wind finally turns?

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