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Bitcoin is down 46% from its ATH. But here’s the real question no one’s asking: What happens to BTC if the stock market actually crashes? I broke down the correlation, drawdowns, and a quantified worst-case scenario 👇🏼

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On-Chain Mind

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22,716 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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🚨 THE STOCK MARKET IS SITTING AT THE MOST OVERVALUED LEVEL IN HISTORY. Stocks haven't even started selling yet. $BTC is already down 50% from its all-time high. This drop happened WITHOUT a stock market crash. What happens to crypto when the S&P actually rolls over?
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🚨 THE STOCK MARKET IS SITTING AT THE MOST OVERVALUED LEVEL IN HISTORY. Stocks haven't even started selling yet. $BTC is already down 50% from its all-time high. This drop happened WITHOUT a stock market crash. What happens to crypto when the S&P actually rolls over?

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🩸 THE BIGGEST BITCOIN TREASURY ON EARTH IS UNWINDING IN REAL TIME. Strategy is down 84% from its high. Tens of billions in market value gone. Its preferred stock $STRC was built to hold a $100 peg. It just broke to $75. Here is why this matters to all of Bitcoin. $MSTR did not just buy Bitcoin. It borrowed to buy Bitcoin. That structure is a rocket when price rises. And a trap when price falls. bitcoin:native is down 52% and the trap is closing. This is the leverage washing out of the entire market.

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Strive (ASST) is set up to absolutely moon. The catapult has been loaded. ASST holders might have this question: What happens to common equity if Bitcoin rises and the balance sheet either stays static or keeps accumulating through SATA issuance? Using CEBE math, I modeled two scenarios with Bitcoin going from roughly $68.5k to $126k. Scenario 1: Static balance sheet No new Bitcoin. No new SATA. No additional capital formation. Just the existing balance sheet riding Bitcoin higher. In that scenario, ASST goes from roughly $15.86 to $37.24. That is still a very strong outcome, because the company’s existing Bitcoin exposure appreciates and CEBE per share rises as fixed senior claims shrink in BTC terms. At $126k Bitcoin, CEBE reaches roughly 17,488 sats per share. $37.24 stock price with the multiple staying flat and zero new Bitcoin purchased :) Scenario 2: $200 million of SATA issued every month Same Bitcoin path. Same starting point. But Strive adds $200 million of SATA every month and uses it to acquire more Bitcoin. In this scenario, the stock goes from roughly $15.86 to $54.21. CEBE rises to roughly 25,456 sats per share. The Bitcoin stack grows from about 19,000 BTC to roughly 45,900 BTC. This is where the mechanism gets violent. The static balance sheet benefits from Bitcoin appreciation. The SATA issuance scenario benefits from Bitcoin appreciation plus monthly balance sheet expansion. That means the common equity is not simply waiting for Bitcoin to go up. It is watching the company potentially compound its Bitcoin exposure while the denominator gets partially protected by the capital structure. At the end of the model: Static case: $37.24 stock price SATA monthly case: $54.21 stock price Difference: +$16.97 per share Relative uplift: about 45.6% If SATA issuance is done at attractive terms and deployed into Bitcoin, the common wins big after Bitcoin moons. That is the whole game. This is amplified Bitcoin. And if the market starts pricing that correctly, the stock does not merely track Bitcoin. It can re-rate around the speed and quality of true Bitcoin-per-share growth:
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Strive (ASST) is set up to absolutely moon. The catapult has been loaded. ASST holders might have this question: What happens to common equity if Bitcoin rises and the balance sheet either stays static or keeps accumulating through SATA issuance? Using CEBE math, I modeled two scenarios with Bitcoin going from roughly $68.5k to $126k. Scenario 1: Static balance sheet No new Bitcoin. No new SATA. No additional capital formation. Just the existing balance sheet riding Bitcoin higher. In that scenario, ASST goes from roughly $15.86 to $37.24. That is still a very strong outcome, because the company’s existing Bitcoin exposure appreciates and CEBE per share rises as fixed senior claims shrink in BTC terms. At $126k Bitcoin, CEBE reaches roughly 17,488 sats per share. $37.24 stock price with the multiple staying flat and zero new Bitcoin purchased :) Scenario 2: $200 million of SATA issued every month Same Bitcoin path. Same starting point. But Strive adds $200 million of SATA every month and uses it to acquire more Bitcoin. In this scenario, the stock goes from roughly $15.86 to $54.21. CEBE rises to roughly 25,456 sats per share. The Bitcoin stack grows from about 19,000 BTC to roughly 45,900 BTC. This is where the mechanism gets violent. The static balance sheet benefits from Bitcoin appreciation. The SATA issuance scenario benefits from Bitcoin appreciation plus monthly balance sheet expansion. That means the common equity is not simply waiting for Bitcoin to go up. It is watching the company potentially compound its Bitcoin exposure while the denominator gets partially protected by the capital structure. At the end of the model: Static case: $37.24 stock price SATA monthly case: $54.21 stock price Difference: +$16.97 per share Relative uplift: about 45.6% If SATA issuance is done at attractive terms and deployed into Bitcoin, the common wins big after Bitcoin moons. That is the whole game. This is amplified Bitcoin. And if the market starts pricing that correctly, the stock does not merely track Bitcoin. It can re-rate around the speed and quality of true Bitcoin-per-share growth:

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Bitcoin up 13% since November 2024. Ethereum up 14% in the same stretch. A year and a half and basically the same return. The BTC vs altcoin war online is louder than the actual gap. I know BTC has had its ATH in between, but I'd argue Bitcoin hasn't even had its real bull market yet, and that should get even BTC-only holders excited. Intro 00:00 Bitcoin vs. altcoins 00:45 Bitcoin hasn’t had bull market? 4:20 BTC and ETH returns 7:45 Crypto price action and support 11:45

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MetaPlanet traded at 10x its mNAV. For what? Bobbing up and down with the price of Bitcoin? If the market pays 10x for a treasury that bobs, what is one that makes money in any market actually worth? [long: $SRXH]
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MetaPlanet traded at 10x its mNAV. For what? Bobbing up and down with the price of Bitcoin? If the market pays 10x for a treasury that bobs, what is one that makes money in any market actually worth? [long: $SRXH]

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🚨SUPPORT IS IN THE "LOW 40s" IF $59K BREAKS Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton says BTC has failed at its 200-day MA and is sitting on a key Fibonacci level that, if broken, "oftentimes a full retracement happens." Stockton added that 75% to 80% drawdowns are still possible, but Bitcoin is long-term oversold and needs "a couple, three weeks of stabilization" before she's convinced the bottom is in. BTC is currently down over 50% from its all-time high of $125K.

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$BTC A clip from SZ's livestream 👇 He broke down Bitcoin on the daily timeframe and compared it to previous market fractals. Based on that structure, there’s a potential swing long setting up here. Nothing is guaranteed but the similarities are worth paying attention to.

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🚨 THE CRASH IS NOT STOPPING AND MICHAEL SAYLOR IS NOW IN REAL TROUBLE. Bitcoin just crashed nearly -5% in 30 minutes. $BTC hit a NEW 21-MONTH LOW. $STRC collapsed to a NEW ALL-TIME LOW. $MSTR is already down over -83% from its peaK. Read that again. Bitcoin is breaking down. STRC is breaking down. MSTR is breaking down. All at the same time. This is no longer just a crypto dump. This is the market starting to ask the question nobody wanted to ask: Could Strategy eventually be forced to sell Bitcoin? Because if liquidity keeps disappearing… Saylor’s Bitcoin empire becomes the next domino. Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS. I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again, that’s literally my job. If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.

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Bitcoin whales are selling fast! BUT, this time, it’s actually bullish. I break down the real reason behind the move and what it means for the next phase of the market. Watch NOW on Crypto Insider:
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Bitcoin whales are selling fast! BUT, this time, it’s actually bullish. I break down the real reason behind the move and what it means for the next phase of the market. Watch NOW on Crypto Insider:

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BTC JUST CONFIRMED THE WORST CASE Mid-term roadmap: $67K → pullback, relief bounce $59K → acceptance below, sell-off begins Range → short consolidation Below $49K→ massive drop, next leg down This is the next wave down, not the bottom I called the ATH, the drop from $126K to $60K The people who followed early avoided the worst of it Turn on notifications - you don't want to miss the next call
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BTC JUST CONFIRMED THE WORST CASE Mid-term roadmap: $67K → pullback, relief bounce $59K → acceptance below, sell-off begins Range → short consolidation Below $49K→ massive drop, next leg down This is the next wave down, not the bottom I called the ATH, the drop from $126K to $60K The people who followed early avoided the worst of it Turn on notifications - you don't want to miss the next call

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Bitcoin usually bottoms after a correction in the U.S. stock market during the second half of the final year of its four-year cycle. Look at the pattern: 2015, 2018, 2022, 2026. So the real question is not about Bitcoin, it is about stocks. Is the US market about to crash?
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Bitcoin usually bottoms after a correction in the U.S. stock market during the second half of the final year of its four-year cycle. Look at the pattern: 2015, 2018, 2022, 2026. So the real question is not about Bitcoin, it is about stocks. Is the US market about to crash?

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🇺🇸 SOMETHING INSANELY BAD IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO THE U.S. STOCK MARKET. According to an old Wall Street market cycle paper, the S&P-500 is currently in the Euphoria stage. What comes next is an insane market crash below $2,000. If that happens, it will be worse then what we saw in 2008 and the dot-com crash in 2000. It will be written down in history books as the worst market crash. Most people are over-leveraged and not prepared for this. Regardless of what happens, always expect the worst. Stay prepared.

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81,642 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

We're deep in the bear market, and everyone is expecting deeper corrections from here. That's exactly why this is the moment to have a game plan. In this video I break down every scenario for Bitcoin, what I'll do in each one, and the exact altcoin positions I'm watching. What I cover: – Bitcoin: holding the 200-week MA right now. As long as that holds, this is the cycle bottom. If it breaks, I'll show you the levels and how I de-risk. – The STRC depeg: why the panic dragging Bitcoin down is overblown, and what's actually going on under the hood. – Ondo: why 25-27 cents is my accumulation zone if we sweep the lows. – NEAR: my largest position, and the levels where I'm adding. – Wormhole: the bullish divergence I'm tracking for a potential double. We're hitting the same bottoming levels we saw in 2012, 2015, 2018 and 2022. Accumulating here is the key part of this entire market period. Full breakdown 👇🏼
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We're deep in the bear market, and everyone is expecting deeper corrections from here. That's exactly why this is the moment to have a game plan. In this video I break down every scenario for Bitcoin, what I'll do in each one, and the exact altcoin positions I'm watching. What I cover: – Bitcoin: holding the 200-week MA right now. As long as that holds, this is the cycle bottom. If it breaks, I'll show you the levels and how I de-risk. – The STRC depeg: why the panic dragging Bitcoin down is overblown, and what's actually going on under the hood. – Ondo: why 25-27 cents is my accumulation zone if we sweep the lows. – NEAR: my largest position, and the levels where I'm adding. – Wormhole: the bullish divergence I'm tracking for a potential double. We're hitting the same bottoming levels we saw in 2012, 2015, 2018 and 2022. Accumulating here is the key part of this entire market period. Full breakdown 👇🏼

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