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Bitcoin just entered September, historically its worst month. Average return: -2.92% But right after comes Uptober. Average return: +19.92% Green in 10 of the last 13 years. 🚀

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Crypto Rover

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107,137 views • 8 days ago •via X (Twitter)

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🩸 WARNING: June is statistically the 2ND WORST month in $BTC history. Average return: -0.38%. Median return: -0.49%. Only September is worse. And June 2026 just opened with -3.56% in a single day...

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Bitcoin has historically performed well in July, closing the month green 9 out of 13 times with an average return of +7.6%. Even more interesting, every single red June in Bitcoin's history (5/5) has been followed by a green July. If history repeats itself, the odds are once again in favor of the bulls.
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Bitcoin has historically performed well in July, closing the month green 9 out of 13 times with an average return of +7.6%. Even more interesting, every single red June in Bitcoin's history (5/5) has been followed by a green July. If history repeats itself, the odds are once again in favor of the bulls.

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BITCOIN'S WORST MONTH JUST PRINTED ITS BEST NUMBER SINCE 2017. August: red in 9 of the last 13 years. Median return -6.99%. 2026: +24.39%. When the month that always bleeds prints green, the crowd is positioned wrong. That's exactly what 2017 looked like before Q4 tripled. The full plan is pinned.

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Watch how our climate has rapidly changed over the last 144 years. 'Summer' referred to here is the boreal summer and represented by the 3-month average of June, July & August. 2023 comes in hottest by considerable margin. 🔵 = cooler than average 🔴 = warmer than average The average is calculated from summers between 1951-1980.

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Bitcoin has had a strong start to July, up nearly 10% so far. But be aware of what usually comes next. August and September are historically the two weakest months of the year for $BTC. September especially, averaging around -4%.
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"Good news from GasBuddy — prices in Wisconsin are down... the average price for a gallon of regular is $2.73. That's nearly a 10 cent drop from last month..."

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💥 BITCOIN IS ON COURSE FOR ITS BEST AUGUST SINCE 2017. Up ~23% this month, in the worst-performing month in Bitcoin's history. The last time August looked like this, it kicked off one of the biggest bull runs ever.

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HOW BADLY DO WE NEED $STRC BACK AT PAR? Turning the STRC machine back on would juice MSTR’s return by as much as 11.55 percentage points on the exact same move to $100,000 Bitcoin... with zero mNAV expansion. Bitcoin goes from $64,846 to $100,000: +54.21%. With no new STRC, MSTR goes from $97.91 to $172.66: +76.35%, beating Bitcoin by 22.13 points. Then we restart the preferred trebuchet: $500M/month → MSTR +79.26% → beats BTC by 25.05 points $1B/month → MSTR +82.16% → beats BTC by 27.95 points $1.5B/month → MSTR +85.04% → beats BTC by 30.83 points $2B/month → MSTR +87.90% → beats BTC by 33.69 points The incremental return created specifically by new STRC is 2.92%, 5.81%, 8.69% and 11.55%, respectively. At $2B per month, STRC generates 13.14% of MSTR’s entire return and 34.29% of its outperformance over Bitcoin. Issuing $24B over the year buys 301,208 BTC at an average modeled price of $79,679. Those coins are worth $30.12B when Bitcoin reaches $100,000, while the additional preferred principal remains . That creates $6.12B of gross residual common equity before the associated dividend and dilution drag. After including that drag, CEBE still finishes 10,916 sats per share above the zero-issuance scenario, adding $11.31 to MSTR’s ending share price. Credit investors get a 12% coupon and a warm glass of milk. Common shareholders get whatever survives when $100,000 Bitcoin runs the fixed-dollar liability through an industrial meat grinder. The preferred stack is expensive capital when Bitcoin goes sideways. On an orderly climb, it becomes a machine for purchasing BTC below its destination price while the liability remains frozen in dollars. I love Strategy's model. It's simple. Continue to manufacture yield for the dollar economy, and then harvest the residual convexity for common shareholders:
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🐻‍❄: It's the return of New Thitipoom kub. 💪🏻: Why did you just come back? Where did you go before this? 🐻‍❄: Where? *asks Neen* 🎀: Makeup room. 💪🏻: With Tay Tawan? But now with Sotus gang na. 🐻‍❄: Return after 10 yrs. #SOTUS10thYearConcertLIVE #Newwiee

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We just observed the hottest month globally on record. This is how all the Julys since 1880 stack up. The 8 hottest Julys on record (for global average temperature) have all occurred in the last 8 years since 2016. No time to waste. #ActOnClimate via Scott Duncan
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We just observed the hottest month globally on record. This is how all the Julys since 1880 stack up. The 8 hottest Julys on record (for global average temperature) have all occurred in the last 8 years since 2016. No time to waste. #ActOnClimate via Scott Duncan

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16,267 views • 3 years ago

🚀3 PATHS TO $100 ASST🚀 ASST starts at $13.00. Reaching $100 requires a 7.69× total stock multiple. All three scenarios use a 24-month horizon. SATA issuance is expressed as a monthly average, meaning ASST could issue opportunistically rather than raising the exact same amount every month. PATH 1: BITCOIN-LED Average new SATA issuance: $0 per month BTC: $66.3K → $300K = 4.52× CEBE: 13,312 → 20,286 sats/share = 1.52× CEBE mNAV: 1.47× → 1.64× = 1.12× 4.52 × 1.52 × 1.12 = 7.69× Implied ASST price: $100 ASST issues no additional SATA. Its existing $782.95M preferred claim simply becomes much smaller when measured in BTC at $300K. PATH 2: BALANCED Average SATA issuance: $100M per month That means $2.40B of cumulative SATA issuance over 24 months, bringing the preferred balance to approximately $3.18B. At $200K Bitcoin: BTC holdings: 40,251 Senior claims: 14,912 BTC CEBE attributable to common: 25,339 BTC Diluted shares: 95.12M CEBE: 26,639 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.47× → 1.88× Return decomposition: BTC appreciation: 3.02× CEBE sats/share: 2.00× mNAV rerating: 1.27× 3.02 × 2.00 × 1.27 = 7.69× Implied ASST price: $100 This path cuts the projected SATA issuance rate by more than half. The tradeoff is that ASST must rerate from 1.47× to approximately 1.88× CEBE mNAV. PATH 3: SATA PLUS MULTIPLE EXPANSION Average SATA issuance: $150M per month That means $3.60B of cumulative SATA issuance over 24 months, bringing the preferred balance to approximately $4.38B. At $150K Bitcoin: BTC holdings: 56,162 Senior claims: 27,883 BTC CEBE attributable to common: 28,279 BTC Diluted shares: 99.02M CEBE: 28,558 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.47× → 2.33× Return decomposition: BTC appreciation: 2.26× CEBE sats/share: 2.15× mNAV rerating: 1.59× 2.26 × 2.15 × 1.59 = 7.69× Implied ASST price: $100 This is the lowest-Bitcoin path, but it demands the highest valuation. With BTC reaching only $150K, the market must eventually price ASST at approximately 2.33× CEBE mNAV. Reducing SATA issuance does not eliminate the path to $100. It changes which engine must do more work. Path one depends primarily on Bitcoin. Path two balances Bitcoin, $100M of average monthly SATA issuance, and moderate mNAV expansion. Path three relies on $150M of average monthly SATA issuance and a much larger valuation rerating. Every path reaches the same destination. The burden simply moves between Bitcoin appreciation, CEBE accretion, and mNAV expansion. Educational modeling only. Not investment advice.
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🚀3 PATHS TO $100 ASST🚀 ASST starts at $13.00. Reaching $100 requires a 7.69× total stock multiple. All three scenarios use a 24-month horizon. SATA issuance is expressed as a monthly average, meaning ASST could issue opportunistically rather than raising the exact same amount every month. PATH 1: BITCOIN-LED Average new SATA issuance: $0 per month BTC: $66.3K → $300K = 4.52× CEBE: 13,312 → 20,286 sats/share = 1.52× CEBE mNAV: 1.47× → 1.64× = 1.12× 4.52 × 1.52 × 1.12 = 7.69× Implied ASST price: $100 ASST issues no additional SATA. Its existing $782.95M preferred claim simply becomes much smaller when measured in BTC at $300K. PATH 2: BALANCED Average SATA issuance: $100M per month That means $2.40B of cumulative SATA issuance over 24 months, bringing the preferred balance to approximately $3.18B. At $200K Bitcoin: BTC holdings: 40,251 Senior claims: 14,912 BTC CEBE attributable to common: 25,339 BTC Diluted shares: 95.12M CEBE: 26,639 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.47× → 1.88× Return decomposition: BTC appreciation: 3.02× CEBE sats/share: 2.00× mNAV rerating: 1.27× 3.02 × 2.00 × 1.27 = 7.69× Implied ASST price: $100 This path cuts the projected SATA issuance rate by more than half. The tradeoff is that ASST must rerate from 1.47× to approximately 1.88× CEBE mNAV. PATH 3: SATA PLUS MULTIPLE EXPANSION Average SATA issuance: $150M per month That means $3.60B of cumulative SATA issuance over 24 months, bringing the preferred balance to approximately $4.38B. At $150K Bitcoin: BTC holdings: 56,162 Senior claims: 27,883 BTC CEBE attributable to common: 28,279 BTC Diluted shares: 99.02M CEBE: 28,558 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.47× → 2.33× Return decomposition: BTC appreciation: 2.26× CEBE sats/share: 2.15× mNAV rerating: 1.59× 2.26 × 2.15 × 1.59 = 7.69× Implied ASST price: $100 This is the lowest-Bitcoin path, but it demands the highest valuation. With BTC reaching only $150K, the market must eventually price ASST at approximately 2.33× CEBE mNAV. Reducing SATA issuance does not eliminate the path to $100. It changes which engine must do more work. Path one depends primarily on Bitcoin. Path two balances Bitcoin, $100M of average monthly SATA issuance, and moderate mNAV expansion. Path three relies on $150M of average monthly SATA issuance and a much larger valuation rerating. Every path reaches the same destination. The burden simply moves between Bitcoin appreciation, CEBE accretion, and mNAV expansion. Educational modeling only. Not investment advice.

Adam Livingston

12,608 views • 1 month ago

Shelby Miller last pitched in the bigs on September 1st of last season before undergoing TJS. Just 11 months later, he has made six rehab outings, is throwing harder than he did last season, and has a 40.0% K%. Nearing a major-league return. Absolutely remarkable.
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Shelby Miller last pitched in the bigs on September 1st of last season before undergoing TJS. Just 11 months later, he has made six rehab outings, is throwing harder than he did last season, and has a 40.0% K%. Nearing a major-league return. Absolutely remarkable.

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38,032 views • 20 days ago