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Bitcoin just entered September, historically its worst month. Average return: -2.92% But right after comes Uptober. Average return: +19.92% Green in 10 of the last 13 years. 🚀

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Crypto Rover

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107,137 Aufrufe • vor 9 Tagen •via X (Twitter)

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We just observed the hottest month globally on record. This is how all the Julys since 1880 stack up. The 8 hottest Julys on record (for global average temperature) have all occurred in the last 8 years since 2016. No time to waste. #ActOnClimate via Scott Duncan

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🚀3 PATHS TO $100 ASST🚀 ASST starts at $13.00. Reaching $100 requires a 7.69× total stock multiple. All three scenarios use a 24-month horizon. SATA issuance is expressed as a monthly average, meaning ASST could issue opportunistically rather than raising the exact same amount every month. PATH 1: BITCOIN-LED Average new SATA issuance: $0 per month BTC: $66.3K → $300K = 4.52× CEBE: 13,312 → 20,286 sats/share = 1.52× CEBE mNAV: 1.47× → 1.64× = 1.12× 4.52 × 1.52 × 1.12 = 7.69× Implied ASST price: $100 ASST issues no additional SATA. Its existing $782.95M preferred claim simply becomes much smaller when measured in BTC at $300K. PATH 2: BALANCED Average SATA issuance: $100M per month That means $2.40B of cumulative SATA issuance over 24 months, bringing the preferred balance to approximately $3.18B. At $200K Bitcoin: BTC holdings: 40,251 Senior claims: 14,912 BTC CEBE attributable to common: 25,339 BTC Diluted shares: 95.12M CEBE: 26,639 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.47× → 1.88× Return decomposition: BTC appreciation: 3.02× CEBE sats/share: 2.00× mNAV rerating: 1.27× 3.02 × 2.00 × 1.27 = 7.69× Implied ASST price: $100 This path cuts the projected SATA issuance rate by more than half. The tradeoff is that ASST must rerate from 1.47× to approximately 1.88× CEBE mNAV. PATH 3: SATA PLUS MULTIPLE EXPANSION Average SATA issuance: $150M per month That means $3.60B of cumulative SATA issuance over 24 months, bringing the preferred balance to approximately $4.38B. At $150K Bitcoin: BTC holdings: 56,162 Senior claims: 27,883 BTC CEBE attributable to common: 28,279 BTC Diluted shares: 99.02M CEBE: 28,558 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.47× → 2.33× Return decomposition: BTC appreciation: 2.26× CEBE sats/share: 2.15× mNAV rerating: 1.59× 2.26 × 2.15 × 1.59 = 7.69× Implied ASST price: $100 This is the lowest-Bitcoin path, but it demands the highest valuation. With BTC reaching only $150K, the market must eventually price ASST at approximately 2.33× CEBE mNAV. Reducing SATA issuance does not eliminate the path to $100. It changes which engine must do more work. Path one depends primarily on Bitcoin. Path two balances Bitcoin, $100M of average monthly SATA issuance, and moderate mNAV expansion. Path three relies on $150M of average monthly SATA issuance and a much larger valuation rerating. Every path reaches the same destination. The burden simply moves between Bitcoin appreciation, CEBE accretion, and mNAV expansion. Educational modeling only. Not investment advice.
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🚀3 PATHS TO $100 ASST🚀 ASST starts at $13.00. Reaching $100 requires a 7.69× total stock multiple. All three scenarios use a 24-month horizon. SATA issuance is expressed as a monthly average, meaning ASST could issue opportunistically rather than raising the exact same amount every month. PATH 1: BITCOIN-LED Average new SATA issuance: $0 per month BTC: $66.3K → $300K = 4.52× CEBE: 13,312 → 20,286 sats/share = 1.52× CEBE mNAV: 1.47× → 1.64× = 1.12× 4.52 × 1.52 × 1.12 = 7.69× Implied ASST price: $100 ASST issues no additional SATA. Its existing $782.95M preferred claim simply becomes much smaller when measured in BTC at $300K. PATH 2: BALANCED Average SATA issuance: $100M per month That means $2.40B of cumulative SATA issuance over 24 months, bringing the preferred balance to approximately $3.18B. At $200K Bitcoin: BTC holdings: 40,251 Senior claims: 14,912 BTC CEBE attributable to common: 25,339 BTC Diluted shares: 95.12M CEBE: 26,639 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.47× → 1.88× Return decomposition: BTC appreciation: 3.02× CEBE sats/share: 2.00× mNAV rerating: 1.27× 3.02 × 2.00 × 1.27 = 7.69× Implied ASST price: $100 This path cuts the projected SATA issuance rate by more than half. The tradeoff is that ASST must rerate from 1.47× to approximately 1.88× CEBE mNAV. PATH 3: SATA PLUS MULTIPLE EXPANSION Average SATA issuance: $150M per month That means $3.60B of cumulative SATA issuance over 24 months, bringing the preferred balance to approximately $4.38B. At $150K Bitcoin: BTC holdings: 56,162 Senior claims: 27,883 BTC CEBE attributable to common: 28,279 BTC Diluted shares: 99.02M CEBE: 28,558 sats/share CEBE mNAV: 1.47× → 2.33× Return decomposition: BTC appreciation: 2.26× CEBE sats/share: 2.15× mNAV rerating: 1.59× 2.26 × 2.15 × 1.59 = 7.69× Implied ASST price: $100 This is the lowest-Bitcoin path, but it demands the highest valuation. With BTC reaching only $150K, the market must eventually price ASST at approximately 2.33× CEBE mNAV. Reducing SATA issuance does not eliminate the path to $100. It changes which engine must do more work. Path one depends primarily on Bitcoin. Path two balances Bitcoin, $100M of average monthly SATA issuance, and moderate mNAV expansion. Path three relies on $150M of average monthly SATA issuance and a much larger valuation rerating. Every path reaches the same destination. The burden simply moves between Bitcoin appreciation, CEBE accretion, and mNAV expansion. Educational modeling only. Not investment advice.

Adam Livingston

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Shelby Miller last pitched in the bigs on September 1st of last season before undergoing TJS. Just 11 months later, he has made six rehab outings, is throwing harder than he did last season, and has a 40.0% K%. Nearing a major-league return. Absolutely remarkable.
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Shelby Miller last pitched in the bigs on September 1st of last season before undergoing TJS. Just 11 months later, he has made six rehab outings, is throwing harder than he did last season, and has a 40.0% K%. Nearing a major-league return. Absolutely remarkable.

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