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BITCOIN JUST PASSED AN IMPORTANT STRESS TEST Tom Lee says the reason Bitcoin didn’t behave like “digital gold” during the last bout of market turmoil was simple: crypto went through one of the biggest deleveraging events in its history. When leverage unwinds that aggressively, everything gets sold — even...

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CryptosRus

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35,769 次观看 • 6 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Mark Cuban has sold majority of his Bitcoin. Cuban originally bought Bitcoin with one thesis in mind: "It was a better version of gold than gold." A hedge against fiat currency losing its value. When the dollar weakens, Bitcoin should go up. But that thesis just blew up in his face. During the Iran war, when geopolitical risk was spiking and the dollar was sliding, Bitcoin dropped. Gold went to $5,000. Think about what he was expecting. Bitcoin is priced in dollars. When the dollar falls, Bitcoin becomes cheaper for buyers around the world. Global demand should kick in and push the price up. It didn't happen. Gold did exactly what it was supposed to do as a macro hedge. Bitcoin didn't. And for Cuban, that was the line. The whole premise of holding it was gone. He's more disappointed in Bitcoin than Ethereum. He had already written off memecoins as garbage entirely. This matters beyond just one billionaire's portfolio decision. The "Bitcoin as digital gold" narrative has been the backbone of institutional adoption for years. It's the reason pension funds, family offices, and corporate treasuries started buying. If that hedge thesis is broken, the next buyer at these prices needs a different reason to hold. The honest reality: Bitcoin is still trading like a risk asset. It correlates with tech stocks in a downturn and doesn't decouple when it matters most. Gold doesn't have that problem.
0:57

Mark Cuban has sold majority of his Bitcoin. Cuban originally bought Bitcoin with one thesis in mind: "It was a better version of gold than gold." A hedge against fiat currency losing its value. When the dollar weakens, Bitcoin should go up. But that thesis just blew up in his face. During the Iran war, when geopolitical risk was spiking and the dollar was sliding, Bitcoin dropped. Gold went to $5,000. Think about what he was expecting. Bitcoin is priced in dollars. When the dollar falls, Bitcoin becomes cheaper for buyers around the world. Global demand should kick in and push the price up. It didn't happen. Gold did exactly what it was supposed to do as a macro hedge. Bitcoin didn't. And for Cuban, that was the line. The whole premise of holding it was gone. He's more disappointed in Bitcoin than Ethereum. He had already written off memecoins as garbage entirely. This matters beyond just one billionaire's portfolio decision. The "Bitcoin as digital gold" narrative has been the backbone of institutional adoption for years. It's the reason pension funds, family offices, and corporate treasuries started buying. If that hedge thesis is broken, the next buyer at these prices needs a different reason to hold. The honest reality: Bitcoin is still trading like a risk asset. It correlates with tech stocks in a downturn and doesn't decouple when it matters most. Gold doesn't have that problem.

Milk Road Stocks

895,363 次观看 • 4 个月前

🚨 This is the most important macro + Bitcoin clip you’ll watch today. Tom Luongo just went on Simply Bitcoin and laid out how gold, silver, and copper have been suppressed for decades through paper markets — and why that entire system is now breaking in real time. That’s why commodities are going parabolic. And why Bitcoin is going to go on a historic run in the future. Davos just lost control of the narrative.
5:09

🚨 This is the most important macro + Bitcoin clip you’ll watch today. Tom Luongo just went on Simply Bitcoin and laid out how gold, silver, and copper have been suppressed for decades through paper markets — and why that entire system is now breaking in real time. That’s why commodities are going parabolic. And why Bitcoin is going to go on a historic run in the future. Davos just lost control of the narrative.

FinancialFreedom

75,093 次观看 • 8 个月前

Gold since April 2025: +60% Bitcoin since April 2025: -30% Gold since its January high: still near all-time highs. Bitcoin since its October high: -48%. 5 consecutive red months for Bitcoin. A 0.55 correlation with the S&P 500 as of March 1st. And people still call it "digital gold." Let me explain why that framing will cost you money: When the Middle East escalated, gold surged above $5,300. Bitcoin dropped. When equities sold off, gold held. Bitcoin sold with them. When uncertainty spiked, gold hit all-time highs. Bitcoin bled. This isn't an accident. It's the nature of WHAT these assets actually are. Gold is an asset that isn't somebody else's liability. It's not correlated with the general level of risk assets. It doesn't shift identities depending on what the market needs it to be that week. Bitcoin does. Sometimes it's digital gold. Sometimes it's correlated to NASDAQ. Sometimes it follows the dollar. Sometimes it follows liquidity. It depends on whatever narrative is convenient at the time. And narrative always follows price. That's the way it works. When Bitcoin was ripping to $126,000 in October, everyone called it a store of value. Now that it's trading at $66,000 with 5 red months, NOBODY talks about the digital gold thesis anymore. Gold doesn't have that problem. Central banks bought 863 tonnes of gold in 2025. Accumulating at the fastest pace in decades. China is buying like crazy for months. Nobody's buying Bitcoin for their sovereign reserves. Nobody's rewriting the gold thesis every quarter. I said this on back in April last year when Bitcoin was reclaiming $90,000 and everyone wanted me to be bullish on crypto: "If NASDAQ takes a header, if risk assets take another leg down, you want to bet Bitcoin goes up or down? I'd vote down." NASDAQ took a header. Risk assets took a leg down. Bitcoin went down. Gold went up. It's not complicated. Gold is insurance against irresponsible policies from central bankers and government officials. It protects you against the falling dollar. It's been doing this for 5,000 years. Bitcoin is a speculative instrument that acts like protection only when everything else is going up too. And in the environment we're heading into (geopolitical risk at generational highs, the dollar under pressure, central banks still buying, the Fed boxed in on rates) you want the real thing. Not the imitation. GOLD SURVIVED EMPIRES BITCOIN SURVIVED TWITTER
1:25

Gold since April 2025: +60% Bitcoin since April 2025: -30% Gold since its January high: still near all-time highs. Bitcoin since its October high: -48%. 5 consecutive red months for Bitcoin. A 0.55 correlation with the S&P 500 as of March 1st. And people still call it "digital gold." Let me explain why that framing will cost you money: When the Middle East escalated, gold surged above $5,300. Bitcoin dropped. When equities sold off, gold held. Bitcoin sold with them. When uncertainty spiked, gold hit all-time highs. Bitcoin bled. This isn't an accident. It's the nature of WHAT these assets actually are. Gold is an asset that isn't somebody else's liability. It's not correlated with the general level of risk assets. It doesn't shift identities depending on what the market needs it to be that week. Bitcoin does. Sometimes it's digital gold. Sometimes it's correlated to NASDAQ. Sometimes it follows the dollar. Sometimes it follows liquidity. It depends on whatever narrative is convenient at the time. And narrative always follows price. That's the way it works. When Bitcoin was ripping to $126,000 in October, everyone called it a store of value. Now that it's trading at $66,000 with 5 red months, NOBODY talks about the digital gold thesis anymore. Gold doesn't have that problem. Central banks bought 863 tonnes of gold in 2025. Accumulating at the fastest pace in decades. China is buying like crazy for months. Nobody's buying Bitcoin for their sovereign reserves. Nobody's rewriting the gold thesis every quarter. I said this on back in April last year when Bitcoin was reclaiming $90,000 and everyone wanted me to be bullish on crypto: "If NASDAQ takes a header, if risk assets take another leg down, you want to bet Bitcoin goes up or down? I'd vote down." NASDAQ took a header. Risk assets took a leg down. Bitcoin went down. Gold went up. It's not complicated. Gold is insurance against irresponsible policies from central bankers and government officials. It protects you against the falling dollar. It's been doing this for 5,000 years. Bitcoin is a speculative instrument that acts like protection only when everything else is going up too. And in the environment we're heading into (geopolitical risk at generational highs, the dollar under pressure, central banks still buying, the Fed boxed in on rates) you want the real thing. Not the imitation. GOLD SURVIVED EMPIRES BITCOIN SURVIVED TWITTER

George Noble

11,852 次观看 • 7 个月前

Bitcoin ETFs saw their biggest weekly inflow in 10 months "The fact that Bitcoin started pushing towards 80 was not just because shorts were being liquidated. That was not a leverage squeeze at all. What we can now see is that a big part of it was Bitcoin ETFs having their biggest weekly inflow in 10 months during the rally" "Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.92 billion in the week. Ether ETFs added another $697 million, which is a very large number" "I had Alex Thorn from Galaxy on Macro Monday this morning, and he pointed out that this was effectively the most volume we've seen on Bitcoin ETFs since the all time high for Bitcoin in price and for ETFs back in October" "So that cannot be ignored. People buying ETFs is not part of a short squeeze. It is general belief that the bottom is likely in, and this is the time to re-enter the asset class"
0:59

Bitcoin ETFs saw their biggest weekly inflow in 10 months "The fact that Bitcoin started pushing towards 80 was not just because shorts were being liquidated. That was not a leverage squeeze at all. What we can now see is that a big part of it was Bitcoin ETFs having their biggest weekly inflow in 10 months during the rally" "Bitcoin ETFs attracted $1.92 billion in the week. Ether ETFs added another $697 million, which is a very large number" "I had Alex Thorn from Galaxy on Macro Monday this morning, and he pointed out that this was effectively the most volume we've seen on Bitcoin ETFs since the all time high for Bitcoin in price and for ETFs back in October" "So that cannot be ignored. People buying ETFs is not part of a short squeeze. It is general belief that the bottom is likely in, and this is the time to re-enter the asset class"

The Wolf Of All Streets

25,347 次观看 • 1 个月前

The Most Bullish Bitcoin Macro Setup in HISTORY?! Bitcoin is ripping higher while real yields are near the highest levels in the post-2010 data, the dollar is basically flat, and macro conditions are still far from an obvious tailwind. In this video, I break down why Bitcoin gaining roughly 18.5% through a major real-rate tightening window may be one of the most important signals in the market right now. We’ll look at the Treasury curve, DXY, gold, oil, inflation expectations, credit, and Bitcoin priced in gold to figure out what regime we’re actually in. Then we test the historical data to see how Bitcoin has behaved when the dollar and real yields move together, and what could happen if those headwinds eventually reverse. The big question is simple: if Bitcoin is already this strong before the macro tailwind arrives, what happens when the wind finally turns?
17:38

The Most Bullish Bitcoin Macro Setup in HISTORY?! Bitcoin is ripping higher while real yields are near the highest levels in the post-2010 data, the dollar is basically flat, and macro conditions are still far from an obvious tailwind. In this video, I break down why Bitcoin gaining roughly 18.5% through a major real-rate tightening window may be one of the most important signals in the market right now. We’ll look at the Treasury curve, DXY, gold, oil, inflation expectations, credit, and Bitcoin priced in gold to figure out what regime we’re actually in. Then we test the historical data to see how Bitcoin has behaved when the dollar and real yields move together, and what could happen if those headwinds eventually reverse. The big question is simple: if Bitcoin is already this strong before the macro tailwind arrives, what happens when the wind finally turns?

Adam Livingston

19,972 次观看 • 9 天前

.Tyler Winklevoss and Cameron Winklevoss explaining their gold 2.0 thesis in 2017 when bitcoin was $17k "Whatever your reasons for investing in gold, whether is scarcity, durability, portability, fungibility. We think that bitcoin matches or beats gold across the board on all of those categories" "It's actually not scarce, it's fixed. You can send it around like an email. It's a lot harder to do that with a bar of gold" "The marketcap of bitcoin right now is $300 billion. The market cap of gold is $6 trillion." "We've been saying this since the market cap of bitcoin was $1 billion. We're 300x more correct today and we think theres a chance we'll be 20x more correct from here on out"
0:45

.Tyler Winklevoss and Cameron Winklevoss explaining their gold 2.0 thesis in 2017 when bitcoin was $17k "Whatever your reasons for investing in gold, whether is scarcity, durability, portability, fungibility. We think that bitcoin matches or beats gold across the board on all of those categories" "It's actually not scarce, it's fixed. You can send it around like an email. It's a lot harder to do that with a bar of gold" "The marketcap of bitcoin right now is $300 billion. The market cap of gold is $6 trillion." "We've been saying this since the market cap of bitcoin was $1 billion. We're 300x more correct today and we think theres a chance we'll be 20x more correct from here on out"

Jeremy

24,505 次观看 • 3 个月前

CHARLES SCHWAB DIRECTOR OF EQUITY RESEARCH ON WHY BITCOIN IS LAGGING RIGHT NOW: "Bitcoin is a hedge against uncertainty. And I think the market right now is very certain about one thing: AI will absorb the next decade of capital, earnings growth, power demand, semiconductor demand, everything. And so the attention is shifting there." That is the whole explanation in two sentences. Bitcoin thrives when the future is unclear. Right now the market thinks it knows exactly what the next decade looks like. AI wins. Everything else waits. The moment that certainty cracks, Bitcoin is the first place uncertain capital runs. Uncertainty is not gone. It is just temporarily overshadowed.
0:20

CHARLES SCHWAB DIRECTOR OF EQUITY RESEARCH ON WHY BITCOIN IS LAGGING RIGHT NOW: "Bitcoin is a hedge against uncertainty. And I think the market right now is very certain about one thing: AI will absorb the next decade of capital, earnings growth, power demand, semiconductor demand, everything. And so the attention is shifting there." That is the whole explanation in two sentences. Bitcoin thrives when the future is unclear. Right now the market thinks it knows exactly what the next decade looks like. AI wins. Everything else waits. The moment that certainty cracks, Bitcoin is the first place uncertain capital runs. Uncertainty is not gone. It is just temporarily overshadowed.

WOLF Bitcoin

71,242 次观看 • 3 个月前

🩸 THE BIGGEST BITCOIN TREASURY ON EARTH IS UNWINDING IN REAL TIME. Strategy is down 84% from its high. Tens of billions in market value gone. Its preferred stock $STRC was built to hold a $100 peg. It just broke to $75. Here is why this matters to all of Bitcoin. $MSTR did not just buy Bitcoin. It borrowed to buy Bitcoin. That structure is a rocket when price rises. And a trap when price falls. bitcoin:native is down 52% and the trap is closing. This is the leverage washing out of the entire market.
0:25

🩸 THE BIGGEST BITCOIN TREASURY ON EARTH IS UNWINDING IN REAL TIME. Strategy is down 84% from its high. Tens of billions in market value gone. Its preferred stock $STRC was built to hold a $100 peg. It just broke to $75. Here is why this matters to all of Bitcoin. $MSTR did not just buy Bitcoin. It borrowed to buy Bitcoin. That structure is a rocket when price rises. And a trap when price falls. bitcoin:native is down 52% and the trap is closing. This is the leverage washing out of the entire market.

Mister Crypto

17,277 次观看 • 3 个月前

“There was never any talk of the risk.” Peter Schiff is just lying at this point. The risk of $STRC was always obvious: it is preferred equity issued by a Bitcoin Treasury Company. Saylor said it clearly: if Bitcoin goes down long term or forever, that is the risk. And what are we seeing now? Bitcoin under pressure. Liquidity rotated into AI and IPOs. Maximum fear. STRC down. That is not some hidden scandal. That is risk premium repricing. Strategy does not magically control STRC’s market price. They can adjust the dividend rate, but the market prices the risk of Bitcoin and Strategy’s ability to keep paying dividends. And when Bitcoin starts going up again, what do you think happens? The same risk premium reprices in the other direction. If you buy preferred equity in a Bitcoin company, you are making one core assumption: Bitcoin goes up over the long term. That was never hidden.
0:42

“There was never any talk of the risk.” Peter Schiff is just lying at this point. The risk of $STRC was always obvious: it is preferred equity issued by a Bitcoin Treasury Company. Saylor said it clearly: if Bitcoin goes down long term or forever, that is the risk. And what are we seeing now? Bitcoin under pressure. Liquidity rotated into AI and IPOs. Maximum fear. STRC down. That is not some hidden scandal. That is risk premium repricing. Strategy does not magically control STRC’s market price. They can adjust the dividend rate, but the market prices the risk of Bitcoin and Strategy’s ability to keep paying dividends. And when Bitcoin starts going up again, what do you think happens? The same risk premium reprices in the other direction. If you buy preferred equity in a Bitcoin company, you are making one core assumption: Bitcoin goes up over the long term. That was never hidden.

Alex 👽

21,220 次观看 • 3 个月前

Kevin Warsh killed the debasement trade and gold, silver, and Bitcoin are all paying the price "The crypto market cheered when Trump picked a Bitcoin-friendly Fed chair. Then he scrapped the rate cuts and basically debased the bull case for Bitcoin, but more specifically for gold and silver" "The assets people were buying to hedge against debasement are no longer in favor. And that is gold and silver. And at least for narrative purposes we would like to think Bitcoin was part of that trade" "That is not how the market has been pricing it. If the debasement trade narrative completely disappears that could be problematic for markets in general"
1:55

Kevin Warsh killed the debasement trade and gold, silver, and Bitcoin are all paying the price "The crypto market cheered when Trump picked a Bitcoin-friendly Fed chair. Then he scrapped the rate cuts and basically debased the bull case for Bitcoin, but more specifically for gold and silver" "The assets people were buying to hedge against debasement are no longer in favor. And that is gold and silver. And at least for narrative purposes we would like to think Bitcoin was part of that trade" "That is not how the market has been pricing it. If the debasement trade narrative completely disappears that could be problematic for markets in general"

The Wolf Of All Streets

61,992 次观看 • 3 个月前

Former BlackRock fund manager Ed Dowd: "The metals are telling you that there's uncertainty out there and a lack of trust... [and] that gold and silver are going to be part of the new monetary system... [so] gold and silver are the trade and not Bitcoin so much." This clip of Dowd (Edward Dowd), who is also the founder of Phinance Technologies, is taken from a discussion with Michael Farris (Michael Farris) posted to YouTube on January 13, 2026. ---------------Partial transcription of clip--------------- "The metals are telling you that there's uncertainty out there and a lack of trust. I think the big, the moves in gold and silver are really discounting a lack of trust and fear of what is coming and what it's going to look like. And, and also it's also telling you that gold and silver are going to be part of the new monetary system. "And Bitcoin, interestingly enough, has stalled out. It's down 20% since October, the high in October and Bitcoin is barely up today. So, you know, there was always this thesis around Bitcoin that when when there's a new monetary system comes, it's going to, it's going to be protection against, you know, any of that kind of uncertainty. It's increasing. It's becoming increasingly obvious to me that gold and silver are the trade and not Bitcoin so much. "And Bitcoin, unfortunately, is very highly correlated to the Nasdaq and it's disconnected from the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq and Bitcoin have disconnected temporarily. Generally speaking, they're highly correlated. So what does that say? Does that say Nasdaq is going to catch up down to Bitcoin or is Bitcoin going to rally back up? I think that the Nasdaq is going to go down to bitcoin. So that's where we are."
1:15

Former BlackRock fund manager Ed Dowd: "The metals are telling you that there's uncertainty out there and a lack of trust... [and] that gold and silver are going to be part of the new monetary system... [so] gold and silver are the trade and not Bitcoin so much." This clip of Dowd (Edward Dowd), who is also the founder of Phinance Technologies, is taken from a discussion with Michael Farris (Michael Farris) posted to YouTube on January 13, 2026. ---------------Partial transcription of clip--------------- "The metals are telling you that there's uncertainty out there and a lack of trust. I think the big, the moves in gold and silver are really discounting a lack of trust and fear of what is coming and what it's going to look like. And, and also it's also telling you that gold and silver are going to be part of the new monetary system. "And Bitcoin, interestingly enough, has stalled out. It's down 20% since October, the high in October and Bitcoin is barely up today. So, you know, there was always this thesis around Bitcoin that when when there's a new monetary system comes, it's going to, it's going to be protection against, you know, any of that kind of uncertainty. It's increasing. It's becoming increasingly obvious to me that gold and silver are the trade and not Bitcoin so much. "And Bitcoin, unfortunately, is very highly correlated to the Nasdaq and it's disconnected from the Nasdaq. The Nasdaq and Bitcoin have disconnected temporarily. Generally speaking, they're highly correlated. So what does that say? Does that say Nasdaq is going to catch up down to Bitcoin or is Bitcoin going to rally back up? I think that the Nasdaq is going to go down to bitcoin. So that's where we are."

Sense Receptor

136,648 次观看 • 8 个月前

The real story with Strategy isn't a margin call, it's that buying Bitcoin is now only one of the many things it has to manage "Strategy is not facing an automatic Bitcoin margin call or the imminent liquidation of its treasury. The significance is much subtler. Even the company that created the model has entered a new and more complicated phase" "Strategy is no longer simply raising dollars to buy Bitcoin. It's issuing common and preferred securities, holding billions of dollars, paying dividends, servicing debt, managing liquidity, considering repurchases" "And selling Bitcoin when management believes that is less damaging than issuing more securities. That may be entirely rational"
0:42

The real story with Strategy isn't a margin call, it's that buying Bitcoin is now only one of the many things it has to manage "Strategy is not facing an automatic Bitcoin margin call or the imminent liquidation of its treasury. The significance is much subtler. Even the company that created the model has entered a new and more complicated phase" "Strategy is no longer simply raising dollars to buy Bitcoin. It's issuing common and preferred securities, holding billions of dollars, paying dividends, servicing debt, managing liquidity, considering repurchases" "And selling Bitcoin when management believes that is less damaging than issuing more securities. That may be entirely rational"

The Wolf Of All Streets

33,147 次观看 • 2 个月前

BITCOIN'S "DIGITAL GOLD" NARRATIVE JUST FAILED ITS BIGGEST TEST While gold surged past $5,000 and silver hit record after record... Bitcoin dropped 6% in 2025. Silver is up 138%. Bitcoin? Down 30% from its October high. The "digital gold" thesis is collapsing. But here's what most people are getting wrong about WHY... My good friend Michael Howell at CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes nailed it: This isn't a "Great Debasement" trade. If it were, Bitcoin would be celebrating and bonds would be in freefall. Neither is happening. THE REAL DRIVER: CHINA The People's Bank of China has added $1.1T to Chinese money markets over the past year. And they'll likely do the same again this year. This aggressive monetary debasement is pushing Chinese residents into gold as an inflation hedge. You see, Chinese residents are big gold buyers but NOT big Bitcoin buyers. Why? The PBoC banned cryptocurrencies onshore. So when China prints money, it flows into gold, not crypto. And because the Yuan is stable against the dollar (capital controls and trade surplus), changes in the Yuan gold price transmit virtually 1:1 into the US dollar gold price. Bitcoin gets none of this flow. THE LIQUIDITY PROBLEM Michael's research shows something critical: Cryptocurrencies are the most liquidity-sensitive assets on the planet. And Global Liquidity is starting to slow. During the last liquidity downswing from late 2021 through 2022, Bitcoin fell from $65k to under $20k. In the next upswing, it gained over $100k. Now liquidity is peaking again. Bond term premia have stopped rising. Bitcoin is flatlining. The correlation between Global Liquidity and Bitcoin is ironclad. And the cycle is turning against crypto. THE OCTOBER CRASH EXPOSED EVERYTHING On October 10, 2025, Trump's 100% China tariff threat triggered the largest single-day liquidation in crypto history. $19B wiped out in 24 hours. 1.6M accounts blown up. Bitcoin plunged from $126,000 to below $105,000. Order book depth collapsed 98%. This was a stress test And Bitcoin failed. THE "HEDGE" THAT ISN'T During recent geopolitical tensions over Greenland: Gold rose 8.6%. Bitcoin dropped 6.6%. NYDIG found that Bitcoin behaves like an "ATM" during crises. Investors sell it first to raise cash. That's not a hedge. That's a liquidity source. Meanwhile, central banks are buying gold at record levels. They're not touching Bitcoin. THE MINING DEATH SPIRAL Hashprice - the key profitability metric - fell to $35-36 per PH/s/day in November. Below breakeven for most operations. 2025 was the "harshest margin environment of all time." ROI on new mining rigs? 1,000 days. In 2017? Same equipment paid for itself in 3-6 months. AI data centers are outbidding miners for cheap electricity. The squeeze is structural. WHERE THIS IS HEADING Paolo Ardoino, Tether's CEO, said it himself last week: "There are foreign countries buying a lot of gold, and we believe these countries will soon launch tokenized versions of gold as a competitive currency to the US dollar." Gold is being repositioned as foundational collateral beneath a fragmented digital monetary landscape. The BRICS are building gold-backed currencies to accelerate dedollarization. And ironically, the US will use gold-backed stablecoins to DEFEND the dollar's dominance. Gold, forever the bane of the dollar's existence, is being resurrected as its savior. A new monetary age is coming. And Bitcoin isn't part of it. MY TAKE My good friend Michael is right: Monetary debasement is a long-term investment strategy, not a short-term trade. But Bitcoin's cycle is no longer a simple 4 year halving cycle based on supply. It's a complex demand cycle driven by Global Liquidity. And that liquidity is peaking. When Chinese liquidity floods into gold while Bitcoin sits banned on the mainland... When Global Liquidity peaks and crypto flatlines... When the asset fails every stress test thrown at it... There's a serious problem.
1:06

BITCOIN'S "DIGITAL GOLD" NARRATIVE JUST FAILED ITS BIGGEST TEST While gold surged past $5,000 and silver hit record after record... Bitcoin dropped 6% in 2025. Silver is up 138%. Bitcoin? Down 30% from its October high. The "digital gold" thesis is collapsing. But here's what most people are getting wrong about WHY... My good friend Michael Howell at CrossBorder Capital/ GLIndexes nailed it: This isn't a "Great Debasement" trade. If it were, Bitcoin would be celebrating and bonds would be in freefall. Neither is happening. THE REAL DRIVER: CHINA The People's Bank of China has added $1.1T to Chinese money markets over the past year. And they'll likely do the same again this year. This aggressive monetary debasement is pushing Chinese residents into gold as an inflation hedge. You see, Chinese residents are big gold buyers but NOT big Bitcoin buyers. Why? The PBoC banned cryptocurrencies onshore. So when China prints money, it flows into gold, not crypto. And because the Yuan is stable against the dollar (capital controls and trade surplus), changes in the Yuan gold price transmit virtually 1:1 into the US dollar gold price. Bitcoin gets none of this flow. THE LIQUIDITY PROBLEM Michael's research shows something critical: Cryptocurrencies are the most liquidity-sensitive assets on the planet. And Global Liquidity is starting to slow. During the last liquidity downswing from late 2021 through 2022, Bitcoin fell from $65k to under $20k. In the next upswing, it gained over $100k. Now liquidity is peaking again. Bond term premia have stopped rising. Bitcoin is flatlining. The correlation between Global Liquidity and Bitcoin is ironclad. And the cycle is turning against crypto. THE OCTOBER CRASH EXPOSED EVERYTHING On October 10, 2025, Trump's 100% China tariff threat triggered the largest single-day liquidation in crypto history. $19B wiped out in 24 hours. 1.6M accounts blown up. Bitcoin plunged from $126,000 to below $105,000. Order book depth collapsed 98%. This was a stress test And Bitcoin failed. THE "HEDGE" THAT ISN'T During recent geopolitical tensions over Greenland: Gold rose 8.6%. Bitcoin dropped 6.6%. NYDIG found that Bitcoin behaves like an "ATM" during crises. Investors sell it first to raise cash. That's not a hedge. That's a liquidity source. Meanwhile, central banks are buying gold at record levels. They're not touching Bitcoin. THE MINING DEATH SPIRAL Hashprice - the key profitability metric - fell to $35-36 per PH/s/day in November. Below breakeven for most operations. 2025 was the "harshest margin environment of all time." ROI on new mining rigs? 1,000 days. In 2017? Same equipment paid for itself in 3-6 months. AI data centers are outbidding miners for cheap electricity. The squeeze is structural. WHERE THIS IS HEADING Paolo Ardoino, Tether's CEO, said it himself last week: "There are foreign countries buying a lot of gold, and we believe these countries will soon launch tokenized versions of gold as a competitive currency to the US dollar." Gold is being repositioned as foundational collateral beneath a fragmented digital monetary landscape. The BRICS are building gold-backed currencies to accelerate dedollarization. And ironically, the US will use gold-backed stablecoins to DEFEND the dollar's dominance. Gold, forever the bane of the dollar's existence, is being resurrected as its savior. A new monetary age is coming. And Bitcoin isn't part of it. MY TAKE My good friend Michael is right: Monetary debasement is a long-term investment strategy, not a short-term trade. But Bitcoin's cycle is no longer a simple 4 year halving cycle based on supply. It's a complex demand cycle driven by Global Liquidity. And that liquidity is peaking. When Chinese liquidity floods into gold while Bitcoin sits banned on the mainland... When Global Liquidity peaks and crypto flatlines... When the asset fails every stress test thrown at it... There's a serious problem.

George Noble

133,956 次观看 • 8 个月前

The World Economic Forum doesn't talk about Bitcoin - so I made sure that we did in 2025. I took the chance to ask if the US will adopt a Bitcoin strategic reserve during the 'Crypto at a Crossroads' session inside this year's WEF conference. Coinbase's Brian Armstrong remains confident we will see a Bitcoin reserve in America. Interestingly, South Africa's Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago made it evident that many still don't understand the underlying value proposition of Bitcoin. Armstrong provided an important response: "Many things have been used as money over the years. I think it's clear at this point that, you know, Bitcoin is a better form of money than gold. It is provably scarce, just like gold, but it's more portable and divisible. So you can actually use it. It was the best performing asset of the last ten years. And so for a store of value, I think it's going to be important for governments to hold this over time. It may not it might start with being 1% of their reserves, but I think over time it'll come to be equal to or greater than gold reserves." Cointelegraph
4:31

The World Economic Forum doesn't talk about Bitcoin - so I made sure that we did in 2025. I took the chance to ask if the US will adopt a Bitcoin strategic reserve during the 'Crypto at a Crossroads' session inside this year's WEF conference. Coinbase's Brian Armstrong remains confident we will see a Bitcoin reserve in America. Interestingly, South Africa's Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago made it evident that many still don't understand the underlying value proposition of Bitcoin. Armstrong provided an important response: "Many things have been used as money over the years. I think it's clear at this point that, you know, Bitcoin is a better form of money than gold. It is provably scarce, just like gold, but it's more portable and divisible. So you can actually use it. It was the best performing asset of the last ten years. And so for a store of value, I think it's going to be important for governments to hold this over time. It may not it might start with being 1% of their reserves, but I think over time it'll come to be equal to or greater than gold reserves." Cointelegraph

Gareth Jenkinson

452,300 次观看 • 1 年前

WALL STREET WILL NEVER CONTROL BITCOIN 👀 Caitlin Long says #Bitcoin won’t be financialized the way gold was -- and the reason is ownership. Gold was always stored in banks & central banks. Bitcoin isn’t. She says roughly ~70% of $BTC is held by long-term holders, not institutions, and only a small portion trades daily. That supply isn’t there to “bail out” Wall Street. Bitcoin is voluntary, permissionless, and can move outside the financial system entirely -- even without the internet. Wall Street can participate, but it can’t control the supply. That’s the difference.
2:20

WALL STREET WILL NEVER CONTROL BITCOIN 👀 Caitlin Long says #Bitcoin won’t be financialized the way gold was -- and the reason is ownership. Gold was always stored in banks & central banks. Bitcoin isn’t. She says roughly ~70% of $BTC is held by long-term holders, not institutions, and only a small portion trades daily. That supply isn’t there to “bail out” Wall Street. Bitcoin is voluntary, permissionless, and can move outside the financial system entirely -- even without the internet. Wall Street can participate, but it can’t control the supply. That’s the difference.

CryptosRus

40,596 次观看 • 7 个月前

SELL IN MAY AND WALK AWAY: The most dangerous words in crypto: "This time is different." Sell in May. Everyone ignores it. Until they can't. Bitcoin corrected 60%+ during previous May phases. Price is entering that exact seasonal window now. Three consecutive green months during a bear market. Never happened in Bitcoin history. Buffett warns. Michael Burry shorts. Livermore's chart flashes. Now the seasonal pattern aligns. I'm not calling a crash. I'm calling for respect of the risk.
0:25

SELL IN MAY AND WALK AWAY: The most dangerous words in crypto: "This time is different." Sell in May. Everyone ignores it. Until they can't. Bitcoin corrected 60%+ during previous May phases. Price is entering that exact seasonal window now. Three consecutive green months during a bear market. Never happened in Bitcoin history. Buffett warns. Michael Burry shorts. Livermore's chart flashes. Now the seasonal pattern aligns. I'm not calling a crash. I'm calling for respect of the risk.

Merlijn The Trader

47,261 次观看 • 4 个月前

Bitcoin is starting to print the same structure that marked the end of the last bear market. After the 2021 top, Bitcoin lost the 200 Week Moving Average. What followed was a brutal bear market. But here's what happened next... Price slowly built a rounded base beneath the 200 Week Moving Average. Everyone expected another leg lower. Instead, Bitcoin reclaimed the 200 Week Moving Average... And the next bull market began. Now look at 2026. Bitcoin has once again lost the 200 Week Moving Average. And it's beginning to build a very similar rounded base. The reclaim hasn't happened yet. But if history starts to repeat... That could be the signal the bear market is finally coming to an end.
0:27

Bitcoin is starting to print the same structure that marked the end of the last bear market. After the 2021 top, Bitcoin lost the 200 Week Moving Average. What followed was a brutal bear market. But here's what happened next... Price slowly built a rounded base beneath the 200 Week Moving Average. Everyone expected another leg lower. Instead, Bitcoin reclaimed the 200 Week Moving Average... And the next bull market began. Now look at 2026. Bitcoin has once again lost the 200 Week Moving Average. And it's beginning to build a very similar rounded base. The reclaim hasn't happened yet. But if history starts to repeat... That could be the signal the bear market is finally coming to an end.

Mister Crypto

22,509 次观看 • 2 个月前

"The last big trade is usually the last big trade, not the next big trade" Mike McGlone on why he'd be short Bitcoin, gold and silver here "The key bias I'm looking at is the sentiment of people looking at the last big trade and not remembering that. That is, currency debasement, got to buy Bitcoin, got to buy gold. My headline tomorrow will be former studs turning to duds, they're complete duds right now." "You look at all that hiking priced in the market, 50 basis points, you don't want to buy risk assets in that environment." "Gold is the most highly correlated to the stock market almost ever with it going up, and we know Bitcoin is highly correlated. To me this is where the trading year of a lifetime might be kicking in." "The number one thing I'm worried about is copper. That's the one that looks to me just like Bitcoin and gold did a few months ago, it's ready to dump just like those did."
1:18

"The last big trade is usually the last big trade, not the next big trade" Mike McGlone on why he'd be short Bitcoin, gold and silver here "The key bias I'm looking at is the sentiment of people looking at the last big trade and not remembering that. That is, currency debasement, got to buy Bitcoin, got to buy gold. My headline tomorrow will be former studs turning to duds, they're complete duds right now." "You look at all that hiking priced in the market, 50 basis points, you don't want to buy risk assets in that environment." "Gold is the most highly correlated to the stock market almost ever with it going up, and we know Bitcoin is highly correlated. To me this is where the trading year of a lifetime might be kicking in." "The number one thing I'm worried about is copper. That's the one that looks to me just like Bitcoin and gold did a few months ago, it's ready to dump just like those did."

The Wolf Of All Streets

34,545 次观看 • 29 天前

Is Saylor selling Bitcoin low only to buy it back higher with STRC? "Clearly selling Bitcoin is not a problem, and the fact that he's not buying is seemingly not a problem for the market either. But the thing I'm wondering now, and this remains open ended, is now that he's selling Bitcoin to buy STRC, what happens when STRC inevitably gets back to a hundred bucks and the old machine of using STRC to buy Bitcoin kicks back into motion?" "Are they actually going to be selling STRC to buy Bitcoin back at a higher price? Are we selling the lows on Bitcoin after buying the highs, only to buy that Bitcoin back higher with the very same instrument he's buying back? I'd say Michael Saylor here is in a bit of a pickle" "Having this not be the main narrative for crypto at the moment is really good news. Michael Saylor spent years turning dollars into Bitcoin. Now he's discovered there's a reverse button, and I don't love it"
0:59

Is Saylor selling Bitcoin low only to buy it back higher with STRC? "Clearly selling Bitcoin is not a problem, and the fact that he's not buying is seemingly not a problem for the market either. But the thing I'm wondering now, and this remains open ended, is now that he's selling Bitcoin to buy STRC, what happens when STRC inevitably gets back to a hundred bucks and the old machine of using STRC to buy Bitcoin kicks back into motion?" "Are they actually going to be selling STRC to buy Bitcoin back at a higher price? Are we selling the lows on Bitcoin after buying the highs, only to buy that Bitcoin back higher with the very same instrument he's buying back? I'd say Michael Saylor here is in a bit of a pickle" "Having this not be the main narrative for crypto at the moment is really good news. Michael Saylor spent years turning dollars into Bitcoin. Now he's discovered there's a reverse button, and I don't love it"

The Wolf Of All Streets

36,187 次观看 • 1 个月前

🇺🇸 Bitcoin just broke out of months of stagnation and surged toward $80,000. Scott Melker thinks the catalyst came from Washington. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent increased purchases of long-term government bonds, sending a signal that the government is increasingly willing to intervene as borrowing costs rise. It wasn't QE. It wasn't technically yield-curve control. But Melker argues that markets understood the message anyway: when financial pressure becomes serious enough, Washington will step in. Bitcoin exploded out of its range, triggering billions in short liquidations. But crucially, it kept climbing after the leverage disappeared, driven by strong ETF flows and actual spot buying. Melker now believes this could be the beginning of a new Bitcoin bull market. And the bigger story isn't really Bitcoin. The U.S. just crossed $40 trillion in debt, while Melker argues neither political party has any realistic appetite for fixing the underlying fiscal problem. His expectation is straightforward: America eventually prints its way through the problem, deliberately debasing the dollar rather than allowing the debt system to break. That doesn't mean the dollar suddenly loses reserve-currency status. Melker actually thinks predictions of its imminent death are badly overblown. The dollar remains, in his words, the “prettiest pig in the pen.” But central banks are accumulating gold, trust in U.S. debt is weakening, and investors increasingly have reasons to own assets outside the fiat system. So Bitcoin hitting $80,000 may be more than another crypto rally. It may be the market beginning to price in something much bigger: Washington has a debt problem it probably cannot repay honestly. And Bitcoin was built for exactly that problem. The Wolf Of All Streets
28:41

🇺🇸 Bitcoin just broke out of months of stagnation and surged toward $80,000. Scott Melker thinks the catalyst came from Washington. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent increased purchases of long-term government bonds, sending a signal that the government is increasingly willing to intervene as borrowing costs rise. It wasn't QE. It wasn't technically yield-curve control. But Melker argues that markets understood the message anyway: when financial pressure becomes serious enough, Washington will step in. Bitcoin exploded out of its range, triggering billions in short liquidations. But crucially, it kept climbing after the leverage disappeared, driven by strong ETF flows and actual spot buying. Melker now believes this could be the beginning of a new Bitcoin bull market. And the bigger story isn't really Bitcoin. The U.S. just crossed $40 trillion in debt, while Melker argues neither political party has any realistic appetite for fixing the underlying fiscal problem. His expectation is straightforward: America eventually prints its way through the problem, deliberately debasing the dollar rather than allowing the debt system to break. That doesn't mean the dollar suddenly loses reserve-currency status. Melker actually thinks predictions of its imminent death are badly overblown. The dollar remains, in his words, the “prettiest pig in the pen.” But central banks are accumulating gold, trust in U.S. debt is weakening, and investors increasingly have reasons to own assets outside the fiat system. So Bitcoin hitting $80,000 may be more than another crypto rally. It may be the market beginning to price in something much bigger: Washington has a debt problem it probably cannot repay honestly. And Bitcoin was built for exactly that problem. The Wolf Of All Streets

Mario Nawfal

271,126 次观看 • 1 个月前