🚨 Bitcoin's long term holders are capitulating again. And every time, it marked a bottom. This indicator tracks the % of long term holders sitting in profit. Below 65%, bear market bottoms start to form. Every single time it hit this level, it was a capitulation bottom. 2015, 2019,... 2020, 2023. And where is it now? Right back in that same zone. When the diehards give up, the selling runs out.show more

Video explaining this chart:

love the signal but etf era might rewrite the script

LTH利润百分比到65%以下在历史上确实每次都对应底部区域，逻辑就是最坚定的那批人都不扛了，最后的多头投降。但这次和前几次不一样的地方在于，ETF和微策略的持仓占比变高了，这些资金的减持逻辑和早期散户不一样，不一定意味着彻底投降。

On-chain capitulation is just one piece of the puzzle. The missing piece is macro liquidity. $BTC is a pure risk-on asset, and the market is absolutely not ready for it yet. Look at where capital is actually flowing: Gold is dominating because smart money seeks safety and wealth preservation. Until the macro shifts back to a risk-on environment, this "bottom" can bleed for a long time.

if history rhymes, patience may pay here

Time will tell how this time goes.

"start to form"

LTH capitulation often marks stress

Soooo reversal tmrw

This is an interesting perspective. While historical data can provide context, it's important to remember that past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Market bottoms can be difficult to predict accurately.

Eveyone who is expecting a bottom in oktober, market makers will fck you up with a total crash in January or something

This is an important zone to watch. Capitulation can signal seller exhaustion, but historical confluence is not confirmation. Price structure still needs to show that supply has actually been absorbed.

Not a guarantee — but when long-term holders start giving up, it’s often when the strongest hands begin accumulating. 🟠

lth capitulation hands the next leg to retail

Good signal

lth capitulation below 65% again, historically that’s where bids start stacking