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BitGo CEO Mike Belshe says dollar debasement will be the real tailwind beneath Bitcoin's rise "People that have been in Bitcoin for a long time got into this for a pretty long-term view. And the fundamentals of Bitcoin have never been stronger, regardless of where the price may be...

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The Wolf Of All Streets

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VanEck CEO Jan van Eck on CNBC: “There’s something else going on within the Bitcoin community that non-crypto people need to know about. And that is: ultimately, VanEck has been around before Bitcoin. We will walk away from Bitcoin if we think the thesis is fundamentally broken. We don’t right now, but you always have to look at the underlying technology and the crypto. What the Bitcoin community has been asking itself is: Is there enough encryption in Bitcoin, because quantum computing is coming? And secondly: Is there enough privacy in Bitcoin? And so a lot of Bitcoin OGs or maxis have been looking at Zcash. Zcash is a token. It’s sort of related to Bitcoin with a lot more privacy. The kind of garbage that we got about Bitcoin four years ago was: ‘It’s used for all bad illicit behavior.’ But now everyone kind of realizes that when you move money around on the Bitcoin blockchain, you can see it. You can see it move from one wallet to another. And a lot of people are looking for more privacy.”

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Threadguy predicts this will be the first bull run in crypto history where Bitcoin doesn't participate "This is going to be the first bull run in the history of crypto where Bitcoin flat out does not participate. No role, no say, it will be minimal at best. It will be Bitcoin to $75k, Bitcoin to $80k, Bitcoin to $85k, and there will be mania on-chain." "My entire thesis is that the next cycle comes from new blood getting access to on chain through these apps. This new crowd doesn't even know what Bitcoin is. Anyone that joined because they saw Kimchi or Cented or Rasmr, they don't know what Bitcoin is. If there's a pocket of excitement and new blood in crypto, it will have nothing to do with Bitcoin, the same way Bitcoin had nothing to do with the disaster that on-chain became in 2025. You cannot have it both ways. The two have been separated for years."
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Threadguy predicts this will be the first bull run in crypto history where Bitcoin doesn't participate "This is going to be the first bull run in the history of crypto where Bitcoin flat out does not participate. No role, no say, it will be minimal at best. It will be Bitcoin to $75k, Bitcoin to $80k, Bitcoin to $85k, and there will be mania on-chain." "My entire thesis is that the next cycle comes from new blood getting access to on chain through these apps. This new crowd doesn't even know what Bitcoin is. Anyone that joined because they saw Kimchi or Cented or Rasmr, they don't know what Bitcoin is. If there's a pocket of excitement and new blood in crypto, it will have nothing to do with Bitcoin, the same way Bitcoin had nothing to do with the disaster that on-chain became in 2025. You cannot have it both ways. The two have been separated for years."

Kai

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Strive CEO Matt Cole describes what he believes could be a grand slam setup for Bitcoin: "I think we're set up for a structural decline in the dollar, more similar to the 80s or the early 2000s, which would be something that's never happened in Bitcoin's history." "This last week, Bitcoin broke out pretty definitively, in my view, versus the dollar... but also versus gold, which to me says it's reclaiming its role as the fastest horse that it should be." "I think this could really be a bull market for the ages for us."
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JEFF SNIDER: “I would buy a ton of Bitcoin…Those are the things you’re gonna want to own in a period of instability.” “If Bitcoin goes down with that level of price appreciation, the asymmetry works in your favor because there are so many long-run positives to owning Bitcoin.”
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JEFF SNIDER: “I would buy a ton of Bitcoin…Those are the things you’re gonna want to own in a period of instability.” “If Bitcoin goes down with that level of price appreciation, the asymmetry works in your favor because there are so many long-run positives to owning Bitcoin.”

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"They hear about Coldcard and go, Bitcoin's been hacked" James Butterfill on the impression the Coldcard hack has left on investors "This is the first question that comes up among investors. They hear about Coldcard and go, okay, well that's it, Bitcoin's been hacked. Clearly it hasn't, but that is the inference, and then they try to dismiss the whole asset completely" "I think that's an incredibly misguided view" "Partly because the Coldcard hack, although it's harsh for the people involved, was what, two and a half to three thousand Bitcoin in total, not a huge amount of Bitcoin that was vulnerable"
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"They hear about Coldcard and go, Bitcoin's been hacked" James Butterfill on the impression the Coldcard hack has left on investors "This is the first question that comes up among investors. They hear about Coldcard and go, okay, well that's it, Bitcoin's been hacked. Clearly it hasn't, but that is the inference, and then they try to dismiss the whole asset completely" "I think that's an incredibly misguided view" "Partly because the Coldcard hack, although it's harsh for the people involved, was what, two and a half to three thousand Bitcoin in total, not a huge amount of Bitcoin that was vulnerable"

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Volatility in action 💯 It has been reported that 80,000 $BTC worth $8.8billion was transferred into the market today, and the holder of these Bitcoins have been holding since 14 years! It has been allegedly reported that the whale has been confirmed to be Roger Ver, and early #Bitcoin pioneer and have been holding his #BTC since 2011 Below is a video of him from 2011 👇 Bitcoin price in 2011 All Time Low = $0.29 (January) All Time High = $29.60 (June) Closed price: $5.27 (December) This is not about making investment, it's about making the right investment decision at the right time.
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Crypto Psalm ₿

28,894 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

“I'm not a huge hater of the institutions. I wasn't a huge hater of altcoins. These institutional products are just kind of altcoins. People can go make their money. Go do your thing. But it's not Bitcoin. An ETF is not Bitcoin. With these centralized projects, you're not getting the core values of Bitcoin, the control, the censorship resistance, the privacy. You're putting it in a centralized wrapper, and if you put Bitcoin in a centralized wrapper, you lose everything that's good about it. It's not Bitcoin. It's just an affinity marketing thing. It's “Hey, you like Bitcoin, go buy my other project." Just like, "Hey you like bitcoin? Go buy my altcoin." It's not the same thing, and I think in many ways it's a step backwards. I don't hate these people, but they certainly shouldn't be celebrated. It's not forwarding our industry if we do treasury strategies, if we do ETFs, we cheer for BlackRock and Cantor. That's a step backwards. It's not something to be cheerful for. It's not a victory, in my opinion. A victory is having more people have direct ownership of real Bitcoin. We now have millions of people who've been onboarded into this fake paper thing that's a claim on a claim on a claim of something that has Bitcoin in the words, but it's not actually Bitcoin. They are never actually holding a wallet like many of us did back in 2012 where somebody sent us that first dollar and you say, "Wow, this is cool. I didn't need to give my ID and I'm able to control and hold this sound money for the first time." You now have a whole generation of millions of people that don't have that. They have some junk fiat product sitting like sludge on their centralized brokerage account at the centralized clearing firm, traded on a centralized exchange, with a centralized transfer agent, and a centralized custodian, and they have to trust six levels of people on a claim for something that has the word ‘Bitcoin’ in it. It's not a victory. It's not a step forward. I don't think it's something that should be celebrated at all.”
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“I'm not a huge hater of the institutions. I wasn't a huge hater of altcoins. These institutional products are just kind of altcoins. People can go make their money. Go do your thing. But it's not Bitcoin. An ETF is not Bitcoin. With these centralized projects, you're not getting the core values of Bitcoin, the control, the censorship resistance, the privacy. You're putting it in a centralized wrapper, and if you put Bitcoin in a centralized wrapper, you lose everything that's good about it. It's not Bitcoin. It's just an affinity marketing thing. It's “Hey, you like Bitcoin, go buy my other project." Just like, "Hey you like bitcoin? Go buy my altcoin." It's not the same thing, and I think in many ways it's a step backwards. I don't hate these people, but they certainly shouldn't be celebrated. It's not forwarding our industry if we do treasury strategies, if we do ETFs, we cheer for BlackRock and Cantor. That's a step backwards. It's not something to be cheerful for. It's not a victory, in my opinion. A victory is having more people have direct ownership of real Bitcoin. We now have millions of people who've been onboarded into this fake paper thing that's a claim on a claim on a claim of something that has Bitcoin in the words, but it's not actually Bitcoin. They are never actually holding a wallet like many of us did back in 2012 where somebody sent us that first dollar and you say, "Wow, this is cool. I didn't need to give my ID and I'm able to control and hold this sound money for the first time." You now have a whole generation of millions of people that don't have that. They have some junk fiat product sitting like sludge on their centralized brokerage account at the centralized clearing firm, traded on a centralized exchange, with a centralized transfer agent, and a centralized custodian, and they have to trust six levels of people on a claim for something that has the word ‘Bitcoin’ in it. It's not a victory. It's not a step forward. I don't think it's something that should be celebrated at all.”

Bruce Fenton

23,882 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

"Bitcoin's probably going towards 10,000, and we need to get MicroStrategy Saylor stopped out. There's only one thing that matters for him right now, Bitcoin has to go up" Mike McGlone on why crypto is in a severe bear market that's just getting started "Cryptos are in a severe, serious bear market and it should continue. Part of it is because we've got a lot of smart people who are not seeing the forest through the trees. The number one thing is rapidly advancing technology, which is bearish because there's an unlimited supply of cryptos" "Now we have to purge those, and we're just getting started. Bitcoin's just one of them. The fact that it's done what it's done this year is a good indication it's probably going towards 10,000" "There's only one thing that matters for Saylor right now, Bitcoin has to go up. And it's going down despite the stock market going up"
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"Bitcoin's probably going towards 10,000, and we need to get MicroStrategy Saylor stopped out. There's only one thing that matters for him right now, Bitcoin has to go up" Mike McGlone on why crypto is in a severe bear market that's just getting started "Cryptos are in a severe, serious bear market and it should continue. Part of it is because we've got a lot of smart people who are not seeing the forest through the trees. The number one thing is rapidly advancing technology, which is bearish because there's an unlimited supply of cryptos" "Now we have to purge those, and we're just getting started. Bitcoin's just one of them. The fact that it's done what it's done this year is a good indication it's probably going towards 10,000" "There's only one thing that matters for Saylor right now, Bitcoin has to go up. And it's going down despite the stock market going up"

The Wolf Of All Streets

171,076 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Carney on dollar for dollar retaliation: "The American economy is much, much bigger, at least for the time being, than the Canadian economy. We're catching up, of course. Because of this, it will be difficult to have dollar for dollar retaliation. So we might go the more targeted way."
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Carney on dollar for dollar retaliation: "The American economy is much, much bigger, at least for the time being, than the Canadian economy. We're catching up, of course. Because of this, it will be difficult to have dollar for dollar retaliation. So we might go the more targeted way."

Scott Robertson

305,052 Aufrufe • vor 16 Tagen

🚨NEW: Adam Curry nicely breaks down how Stablecoins work, Tether, and the likely future of the US Digital Dollar system. (Worth a watch if you don't know about this subject) "A stablecoin is a digital dollar thats pegged to the dollar so it's always a dollar. It's already being used all over the internet and the world. The only reason it's worth a dollar is because the stablecoin company that creates it has debt and paper to back it up. They buy America's debt, they buy treasury bonds or T-bills that pay a dividend that gives interest, and for each dollar they've bought in treasury they can create stablecoins. If you look at the company Tether they've bought more of the US debt than most countries. They have $160B worth of US debt. For each of those dollars they have a stablecoin. There's like 50 people in the company. They have $160B at 4% interest annually, they're making BANK just for holding this debt. I think that President Trump is very smart in seeing that we can flood the world with our stablecoin and we get a 2-for-1. We create a dollar of debt and we create another dollar that can be used all over the world as a reserve currency and that should result in some new monetary system that we need to come up with to have our dollar valued properly but also still remain the reserve currency and remain a strong export country. We don't make anything that we sell abroad, we can't all serve each other burgers and fries -- we have to build something. All of that went overseas. There's something big coming, and it has to happen. Trump is a meta guy. He's going to re-finance the country. It'll be digital and he Bitcoiners don't like this because they want Bitcoin to be the one currency that everyone uses but its now more like a digital gold that's much easier to move around. It's useful but it isn't money or currency the way it was originally intended -- but it is still very important and will be part of the US' strategic reserve. It looks to me like Stablecoins and Tether in particular will be the future of the US dollar payments. A lot of people on the right are afraid of being controlled on a grid because you can stop stablecoins -- but it seems there's no way of getting around some form of a digital dollar. I still like Bitcoin as a backup to protect from that control." Great breakdown Adam Curry - curryirc.com
4:51

🚨NEW: Adam Curry nicely breaks down how Stablecoins work, Tether, and the likely future of the US Digital Dollar system. (Worth a watch if you don't know about this subject) "A stablecoin is a digital dollar thats pegged to the dollar so it's always a dollar. It's already being used all over the internet and the world. The only reason it's worth a dollar is because the stablecoin company that creates it has debt and paper to back it up. They buy America's debt, they buy treasury bonds or T-bills that pay a dividend that gives interest, and for each dollar they've bought in treasury they can create stablecoins. If you look at the company Tether they've bought more of the US debt than most countries. They have $160B worth of US debt. For each of those dollars they have a stablecoin. There's like 50 people in the company. They have $160B at 4% interest annually, they're making BANK just for holding this debt. I think that President Trump is very smart in seeing that we can flood the world with our stablecoin and we get a 2-for-1. We create a dollar of debt and we create another dollar that can be used all over the world as a reserve currency and that should result in some new monetary system that we need to come up with to have our dollar valued properly but also still remain the reserve currency and remain a strong export country. We don't make anything that we sell abroad, we can't all serve each other burgers and fries -- we have to build something. All of that went overseas. There's something big coming, and it has to happen. Trump is a meta guy. He's going to re-finance the country. It'll be digital and he Bitcoiners don't like this because they want Bitcoin to be the one currency that everyone uses but its now more like a digital gold that's much easier to move around. It's useful but it isn't money or currency the way it was originally intended -- but it is still very important and will be part of the US' strategic reserve. It looks to me like Stablecoins and Tether in particular will be the future of the US dollar payments. A lot of people on the right are afraid of being controlled on a grid because you can stop stablecoins -- but it seems there's no way of getting around some form of a digital dollar. I still like Bitcoin as a backup to protect from that control." Great breakdown Adam Curry - curryirc.com

Autism Capital 🧩

365,662 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

If Bitcoin keeps going down, will MicroStrategy end up like FTX? Pio and Kaleo discuss the future of MicroStrategy. Pio: "Do you realistically think that $MSTR is going to have to sell 50,000 Bitcoin in the next two years?" Kaleo: "More, and I think it's their best option. They have made it their clear mission that they want to increase net Bitcoin, but what does that necessarily do to create value for $MSTR holders?" "I just think it's reckless right now, the way that $MSTR and the other assets are being advertised... MSTR is amplified Bitcoin... it's just a fancy word for saying it's leveraged." "You can also lose a lot more on the way down... they can't get rid of those dividends unless they buy $STRC back... the obligations accrue; they don't go away." "Look at what happened with FTX. Did anybody think that Bitcoin was going to go back down to 16k?... No. As Bitcoin price goes down, the MSTR compression of their multiple continues to go down."
4:40

If Bitcoin keeps going down, will MicroStrategy end up like FTX? Pio and Kaleo discuss the future of MicroStrategy. Pio: "Do you realistically think that $MSTR is going to have to sell 50,000 Bitcoin in the next two years?" Kaleo: "More, and I think it's their best option. They have made it their clear mission that they want to increase net Bitcoin, but what does that necessarily do to create value for $MSTR holders?" "I just think it's reckless right now, the way that $MSTR and the other assets are being advertised... MSTR is amplified Bitcoin... it's just a fancy word for saying it's leveraged." "You can also lose a lot more on the way down... they can't get rid of those dividends unless they buy $STRC back... the obligations accrue; they don't go away." "Look at what happened with FTX. Did anybody think that Bitcoin was going to go back down to 16k?... No. As Bitcoin price goes down, the MSTR compression of their multiple continues to go down."

Fibonacci 🥷

40,287 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.
11:54

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Chris Millas

36,835 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

JUST IN: ProCap Financial CEO Anthony Pompliano tells Fox Business ""As long as they keep printing money, Bitcoin's going to keep going up over the long run" 🚀 "There's a saying that Bitcoin has no top because the dollar has no bottom. I think people got reminded of that."
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JUST IN: ProCap Financial CEO Anthony Pompliano tells Fox Business ""As long as they keep printing money, Bitcoin's going to keep going up over the long run" 🚀 "There's a saying that Bitcoin has no top because the dollar has no bottom. I think people got reminded of that."

Bitcoin Magazine

138,979 Aufrufe • vor 15 Tagen

.David Sacks: Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Will Maximize Long-Term Value of U.S. Holdings "The reason why we need a Bitcoin reserve is that the federal government already owns some. In fact, it obtained around 400,000 Bitcoin over the past decade through criminal and civil forfeitures and seizures. And so the government has to have a strategy for how it deals with this. In the past, the strategy has been simply to sell it in an ad hoc way, almost willy-nilly, and that cost American taxpayers something like $17 billion in lost value. So we want to have a long-term strategy to maximize the value of these holdings. We’ve decided that Bitcoin is scarce, it’s valuable, and it is strategic for the United States to hold on to this as a long-term reserve asset. So that’s the plan with the 200,000 Bitcoin that we believe are in the possession of the federal government. I say 'we believe' because no one really knows for sure since we’ve never had a proper audit. That’s one of the first things this executive order provides: we’re going to do a full government-wide audit to find out what digital assets we actually have so they can be safeguarded and moved into a strategy that maximizes their long-term value."
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.David Sacks: Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Will Maximize Long-Term Value of U.S. Holdings "The reason why we need a Bitcoin reserve is that the federal government already owns some. In fact, it obtained around 400,000 Bitcoin over the past decade through criminal and civil forfeitures and seizures. And so the government has to have a strategy for how it deals with this. In the past, the strategy has been simply to sell it in an ad hoc way, almost willy-nilly, and that cost American taxpayers something like $17 billion in lost value. So we want to have a long-term strategy to maximize the value of these holdings. We’ve decided that Bitcoin is scarce, it’s valuable, and it is strategic for the United States to hold on to this as a long-term reserve asset. So that’s the plan with the 200,000 Bitcoin that we believe are in the possession of the federal government. I say 'we believe' because no one really knows for sure since we’ve never had a proper audit. That’s one of the first things this executive order provides: we’re going to do a full government-wide audit to find out what digital assets we actually have so they can be safeguarded and moved into a strategy that maximizes their long-term value."

Josh Caplan

90,888 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

“There was never any talk of the risk.” Peter Schiff is just lying at this point. The risk of $STRC was always obvious: it is preferred equity issued by a Bitcoin Treasury Company. Saylor said it clearly: if Bitcoin goes down long term or forever, that is the risk. And what are we seeing now? Bitcoin under pressure. Liquidity rotated into AI and IPOs. Maximum fear. STRC down. That is not some hidden scandal. That is risk premium repricing. Strategy does not magically control STRC’s market price. They can adjust the dividend rate, but the market prices the risk of Bitcoin and Strategy’s ability to keep paying dividends. And when Bitcoin starts going up again, what do you think happens? The same risk premium reprices in the other direction. If you buy preferred equity in a Bitcoin company, you are making one core assumption: Bitcoin goes up over the long term. That was never hidden.
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“There was never any talk of the risk.” Peter Schiff is just lying at this point. The risk of $STRC was always obvious: it is preferred equity issued by a Bitcoin Treasury Company. Saylor said it clearly: if Bitcoin goes down long term or forever, that is the risk. And what are we seeing now? Bitcoin under pressure. Liquidity rotated into AI and IPOs. Maximum fear. STRC down. That is not some hidden scandal. That is risk premium repricing. Strategy does not magically control STRC’s market price. They can adjust the dividend rate, but the market prices the risk of Bitcoin and Strategy’s ability to keep paying dividends. And when Bitcoin starts going up again, what do you think happens? The same risk premium reprices in the other direction. If you buy preferred equity in a Bitcoin company, you are making one core assumption: Bitcoin goes up over the long term. That was never hidden.

Alex 👽

21,220 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Tillman compares Zcash to CryptoPunks, a price held up by holders who don't need to sell "Here's the point I brought up earlier about like 40% of the public pool is owned by 100 wallets in Zcash." "They may all be diamond hands, like Bored Ape Yachts and CryptoPunks are. I'm just saying, that's the only reason why those things still command a price, because the people that own them are rich enough where they don't have to sell them." "And if the 40% of wallet holders on Zcash don't have to sell, because the price is up this high and they don't need the extra billion, then the price could go up higher." "But that's not real is the point. And people need to understand that." "That's not a real market, when you have concentration of that much of the currency in that few hands. What you want is a very, very shallow, very wide pool of holders."
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Tillman compares Zcash to CryptoPunks, a price held up by holders who don't need to sell "Here's the point I brought up earlier about like 40% of the public pool is owned by 100 wallets in Zcash." "They may all be diamond hands, like Bored Ape Yachts and CryptoPunks are. I'm just saying, that's the only reason why those things still command a price, because the people that own them are rich enough where they don't have to sell them." "And if the 40% of wallet holders on Zcash don't have to sell, because the price is up this high and they don't need the extra billion, then the price could go up higher." "But that's not real is the point. And people need to understand that." "That's not a real market, when you have concentration of that much of the currency in that few hands. What you want is a very, very shallow, very wide pool of holders."

The Wolf Of All Streets

32,400 Aufrufe • vor 1 Tag

Classic Market Manipulation. The Trump administration not only insider trades, but they manipulate the markets for personal profits. For anyone that doesn understand this, let me explain. Lets say the price of Bitcoin was $70,000 right now..... Barron could buy $10,000,000 in Bitcoin then get his dad to speak about Bitcoin positively in an interview, before this happens Barron uses his Bitcoin to bet that the price will increase with Leverage, He bets with the Power of $100,000,000 that the price will increase. Trump comes out in an interview and say the US will invest heavily in crypto currencies, crypto is the future ect... The price of Bitcoin instantly spikes to $80,000. Barron would profit $14.29M from that trade, then again they could do it the opposite way. They can short the market betting the price will go down, Buys 10 mill of Bitcoin, Shorts with Leverage. Trump comes out and says that the Crypto Clarity act may not pass, Bitcoin Price crashes, Barron Profits. We have seen the Trump administration do this already with Oil Prices with Barron making oil trades to the tune of $50 Million dollars just days before Trump invaded Iran and made Oil Prices spike. Every single one of these people need to go to jail.
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Classic Market Manipulation. The Trump administration not only insider trades, but they manipulate the markets for personal profits. For anyone that doesn understand this, let me explain. Lets say the price of Bitcoin was $70,000 right now..... Barron could buy $10,000,000 in Bitcoin then get his dad to speak about Bitcoin positively in an interview, before this happens Barron uses his Bitcoin to bet that the price will increase with Leverage, He bets with the Power of $100,000,000 that the price will increase. Trump comes out in an interview and say the US will invest heavily in crypto currencies, crypto is the future ect... The price of Bitcoin instantly spikes to $80,000. Barron would profit $14.29M from that trade, then again they could do it the opposite way. They can short the market betting the price will go down, Buys 10 mill of Bitcoin, Shorts with Leverage. Trump comes out and says that the Crypto Clarity act may not pass, Bitcoin Price crashes, Barron Profits. We have seen the Trump administration do this already with Oil Prices with Barron making oil trades to the tune of $50 Million dollars just days before Trump invaded Iran and made Oil Prices spike. Every single one of these people need to go to jail.

Bricktop_NAFO

102,303 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten