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🚨 BREAKING: Al Jazeera confirms Iran just established a massive new deterrence equation. Tehran officially declares that any further Zionist attacks on Lebanon will trigger direct and devastating Iranian retaliation. The US and Israel are completely trapped!

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Furkan Gözükara

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48,628 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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🚨Iran has now launched missiles toward northern Israel, following through on last week's warning that an Israeli strike on Beirut would trigger such a retaliation. As I argued earlier today (⬇️), Israel's strike on Beirut put Iran in a difficult position. After publicly warning that such an attack would trigger retaliation, failing to respond would have undermined the credibility of that threat and likely invited further U.S./Israeli escalation. Iran's missile attack on northern Israel should be viewed in that context. What we're witnessing is a classic deterrence contest, with each side trying to establish which actions will trigger retaliation and impose costs sufficient to deter their repetition. The key question now is whether a deterrence equilibrium emerges around the Beirut-northern Israel equation, or whether both sides continue probing each other's thresholds and credibility, whether through more Israeli attacks in Lebanon/Beirut, direct Israeli strikes on Iran, or both, pushing this already fragile "ceasefire" toward total collapse.
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🚨Iran has now launched missiles toward northern Israel, following through on last week's warning that an Israeli strike on Beirut would trigger such a retaliation. As I argued earlier today (⬇️), Israel's strike on Beirut put Iran in a difficult position. After publicly warning that such an attack would trigger retaliation, failing to respond would have undermined the credibility of that threat and likely invited further U.S./Israeli escalation. Iran's missile attack on northern Israel should be viewed in that context. What we're witnessing is a classic deterrence contest, with each side trying to establish which actions will trigger retaliation and impose costs sufficient to deter their repetition. The key question now is whether a deterrence equilibrium emerges around the Beirut-northern Israel equation, or whether both sides continue probing each other's thresholds and credibility, whether through more Israeli attacks in Lebanon/Beirut, direct Israeli strikes on Iran, or both, pushing this already fragile "ceasefire" toward total collapse.

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