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BREAKING: FED quietly injected $125 BILLION into the U.S. banking system, marking its largest short-term liquidity move since the 2020 COVID-19 crisis. PUMP IT BRO!

Carl ₿ MENGER ⚡️🇸🇻

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474,995 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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This is such an outright lie. In 2008, the Lehman Brothers collapse created a crisis in the entire world causing a worldwide economic fallout. While the entire world was reeling under the crisis, Manmohan Singh, the then PM of India deployed a multi-pronged strategy. The UPA Govt, between 2008-2009 rolled out three distinct stimulus packages totalling to approximately 1.86 lakh Crores which was around 3.5% of India's GDP then. The Govt slashed the Central Excise Duty across board by 4% and cut service taxes to boost domestic consumption. Govt spending was made to focus on rural development and infrastructure to keep a stable employment. Extra subsidies and credit line extensions were given to export oriented sectors. From a Banking POV, upon instructions of the Govt, the RBI aggressively cut the repo rate down to 4.75% to ease borrowing and encourage investments in the private sector. CRR and SLR were heavily slashed for all banks encouraging smaller banks to extend and improve their lending. These efforts injected Rs. 5.6 lakh crore liquidity (almost 9% of the GDP) into the banking system. Owing to these smart and aggressive measures, especially in the banking system, by 2010, the Indian GDP showed a quick rebound to an 8.5% growth rate. As a short term measure the repo rate cut down along with the CRR and SLR slash ensured that the domestic economy thrived even as the global crisis continued. Disclaimer: Anyone who blamed MMS's strategies during the 2008 crisis, either has no clue about economy or is lying through his teeth.

This is such an outright lie. In 2008, the Lehman Brothers collapse created a crisis in the entire world causing a worldwide economic fallout. While the entire world was reeling under the crisis, Manmohan Singh, the then PM of India deployed a multi-pronged strategy. The UPA Govt, between 2008-2009 rolled out three distinct stimulus packages totalling to approximately 1.86 lakh Crores which was around 3.5% of India's GDP then. The Govt slashed the Central Excise Duty across board by 4% and cut service taxes to boost domestic consumption. Govt spending was made to focus on rural development and infrastructure to keep a stable employment. Extra subsidies and credit line extensions were given to export oriented sectors. From a Banking POV, upon instructions of the Govt, the RBI aggressively cut the repo rate down to 4.75% to ease borrowing and encourage investments in the private sector. CRR and SLR were heavily slashed for all banks encouraging smaller banks to extend and improve their lending. These efforts injected Rs. 5.6 lakh crore liquidity (almost 9% of the GDP) into the banking system. Owing to these smart and aggressive measures, especially in the banking system, by 2010, the Indian GDP showed a quick rebound to an 8.5% growth rate. As a short term measure the repo rate cut down along with the CRR and SLR slash ensured that the domestic economy thrived even as the global crisis continued. Disclaimer: Anyone who blamed MMS's strategies during the 2008 crisis, either has no clue about economy or is lying through his teeth.

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🚨 JAPAN YEN CRISIS IS STARTING TO HIT THE U.S. BOND MARKET The Reverse Carry Trade is closing in, and the next pressure point is bonds and housing. Japan has already carried out another massive yen defense. Instead of dumping its huge pile of U.S. Treasuries, officials are using dollar-selling intervention and other liquidity tools to support the yen. Scott Bessent has also pushed for a larger FIMA repo facility, allowing Japan to raise dollar liquidity against its Treasuries instead of selling them directly. The reason is simple: WASHINGTON DOESN'T WANT JAPAN DUMPING TREASURIES INTO AN ALREADY FRAGILE BOND MARKET. But this is only can-kicking. Japan's August reserves fell sharply, while foreign securities holdings dropped by roughly $88 billion. That workaround is shrinking. When it runs out, forced Treasury sales become the remaining option. And once that happens, the impact spreads fast. Treasury yields rise. Mortgage rates follow. Housing comes under more pressure. Liquidity weakens. Carry trades unwind. Risk assets get margin-called. THAT'S WHY THIS IS MUCH BIGGER THAN JUST THE YEN. Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries. That is exactly why Washington joined the yen rescue. Not charity. To delay a fire sale of Treasuries into an already stressed U.S. bond market. The U.S. bond market is already under enough pressure that Scott Bessent announced larger Treasury buybacks and even discussed using the Treasury General Account to fund them. If Japan's selling wave arrives, mortgage rates follow Treasury yields. Housing gets hit harder. Liquidity thins across the world's benchmark bond market. The Reverse Carry Trade accelerates. And a U.S. funding shock can quickly spread into a global slowdown. THE INTERVENTION CAN DELAY THE PROBLEM - BUT IT CANNOT SOLVE IT. This is exactly what BoJ's Yuto 🇯🇵 warned about after Washington's intervention: "The suffering that will result from this will be amplified tenfold." WE'RE ABOUT TO WATCH THAT HAPPEN IN REAL TIME!👀

🚨 JAPAN YEN CRISIS IS STARTING TO HIT THE U.S. BOND MARKET The Reverse Carry Trade is closing in, and the next pressure point is bonds and housing. Japan has already carried out another massive yen defense. Instead of dumping its huge pile of U.S. Treasuries, officials are using dollar-selling intervention and other liquidity tools to support the yen. Scott Bessent has also pushed for a larger FIMA repo facility, allowing Japan to raise dollar liquidity against its Treasuries instead of selling them directly. The reason is simple: WASHINGTON DOESN'T WANT JAPAN DUMPING TREASURIES INTO AN ALREADY FRAGILE BOND MARKET. But this is only can-kicking. Japan's August reserves fell sharply, while foreign securities holdings dropped by roughly $88 billion. That workaround is shrinking. When it runs out, forced Treasury sales become the remaining option. And once that happens, the impact spreads fast. Treasury yields rise. Mortgage rates follow. Housing comes under more pressure. Liquidity weakens. Carry trades unwind. Risk assets get margin-called. THAT'S WHY THIS IS MUCH BIGGER THAN JUST THE YEN. Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries. That is exactly why Washington joined the yen rescue. Not charity. To delay a fire sale of Treasuries into an already stressed U.S. bond market. The U.S. bond market is already under enough pressure that Scott Bessent announced larger Treasury buybacks and even discussed using the Treasury General Account to fund them. If Japan's selling wave arrives, mortgage rates follow Treasury yields. Housing gets hit harder. Liquidity thins across the world's benchmark bond market. The Reverse Carry Trade accelerates. And a U.S. funding shock can quickly spread into a global slowdown. THE INTERVENTION CAN DELAY THE PROBLEM - BUT IT CANNOT SOLVE IT. This is exactly what BoJ's Yuto 🇯🇵 warned about after Washington's intervention: "The suffering that will result from this will be amplified tenfold." WE'RE ABOUT TO WATCH THAT HAPPEN IN REAL TIME!👀

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🚨 THE U.S. TREASURY JUST HANDCUFFED THE FED TO JAPAN: ONE HIKE AND THE TREASURY TRADE UNWINDS America’s biggest foreign creditor just became the FED’s problem. The Federal Reserve almost certainly cannot raise rates at the Sept 15–16 meeting. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has boxed the new chair in with two coordinated market operations that only work if the Fed stays on hold. First: Bessent is buying long-term Treasuries to cap long-end yields. The United States is already sitting on roughly $40 trillion of debt and does not have spare cash for that program. So Treasury funds the buybacks by issuing more short-term bills. If the Fed hikes, those new bills immediately reprice higher. The government would be paying a steeper rate on fresh short-term paper just to finance the long-bond purchases that were supposed to keep debt-service costs contained. That loop only holds if policy rates stay put. Second: Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, about $1.1 trillion. Japanese domestic yields have been rising, making JGBs more competitive with Treasuries. A disorderly yen slide raises the risk that Tokyo sells U.S. paper to defend its currency or reallocate. Bessent used Exchange Stabilization Fund euros to buy yen in a rare joint intervention with Japan… not to be generous, but to reduce the odds Japan dumps Treasuries and drives U.S. long yields higher. The calendar is the detonator. The Fed meets Sept 15–16. The Bank of Japan meets Sept 17–18. Bessent just met BOJ Governor Ueda and pressed for “decisive” monetary steps to correct yen undervaluation. If the Fed hikes two days before Japan’s meeting, the BOJ is under pressure to follow or the yen weakens again and the intervention is wasted. If both hike, the rate differential that Bessent tried to stabilize collapses, carry positions unwind, and the incentive for Japan to hold Treasuries deteriorates. That is the bind. Bessent’s long-bond buybacks require cheap short-term funding. His yen operation requires Japan not to sell Treasuries and not to be forced into a catch-up hike. A Fed increase in the next two weeks threatens both legs at once. The Fed’s next decision is no longer just a domestic inflation call. It is whether Bessent’s Treasury-Japan construction holds or whether the world’s two largest government-bond markets start pulling against each other. IF THE FED HIKES BEFORE JAPAN, BESSENT’S ENTIRE BOND STRATEGY COLLAPSES

🚨 THE U.S. TREASURY JUST HANDCUFFED THE FED TO JAPAN: ONE HIKE AND THE TREASURY TRADE UNWINDS America’s biggest foreign creditor just became the FED’s problem. The Federal Reserve almost certainly cannot raise rates at the Sept 15–16 meeting. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has boxed the new chair in with two coordinated market operations that only work if the Fed stays on hold. First: Bessent is buying long-term Treasuries to cap long-end yields. The United States is already sitting on roughly $40 trillion of debt and does not have spare cash for that program. So Treasury funds the buybacks by issuing more short-term bills. If the Fed hikes, those new bills immediately reprice higher. The government would be paying a steeper rate on fresh short-term paper just to finance the long-bond purchases that were supposed to keep debt-service costs contained. That loop only holds if policy rates stay put. Second: Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, about $1.1 trillion. Japanese domestic yields have been rising, making JGBs more competitive with Treasuries. A disorderly yen slide raises the risk that Tokyo sells U.S. paper to defend its currency or reallocate. Bessent used Exchange Stabilization Fund euros to buy yen in a rare joint intervention with Japan… not to be generous, but to reduce the odds Japan dumps Treasuries and drives U.S. long yields higher. The calendar is the detonator. The Fed meets Sept 15–16. The Bank of Japan meets Sept 17–18. Bessent just met BOJ Governor Ueda and pressed for “decisive” monetary steps to correct yen undervaluation. If the Fed hikes two days before Japan’s meeting, the BOJ is under pressure to follow or the yen weakens again and the intervention is wasted. If both hike, the rate differential that Bessent tried to stabilize collapses, carry positions unwind, and the incentive for Japan to hold Treasuries deteriorates. That is the bind. Bessent’s long-bond buybacks require cheap short-term funding. His yen operation requires Japan not to sell Treasuries and not to be forced into a catch-up hike. A Fed increase in the next two weeks threatens both legs at once. The Fed’s next decision is no longer just a domestic inflation call. It is whether Bessent’s Treasury-Japan construction holds or whether the world’s two largest government-bond markets start pulling against each other. IF THE FED HIKES BEFORE JAPAN, BESSENT’S ENTIRE BOND STRATEGY COLLAPSES

Stern Drew

117,958 Aufrufe • vor 18 Tagen

THIS IS REALLY CONCERNING 🇺🇸 US government's cash balance has almost reached $1T, its highest level in 5 years. The TGA (Treasury General Account) balance is up $300 billion over the past month, reaching almost $1 trillion. TGA is the US government's primary operating account, held at the Fed. When TGA balance rises, it drains liquidity from the system. When TGA balance falls, it pumps liquidity into the system. Right now, TGA balance is increasing at a rapid pace, which means liquidity is being taken out. Here's why this is bad: 1) Liquidity drain When TGA rises, bank reserves fall. This reduces the cash banks have available to lend or hold as buffers. When this gets extreme, it causes SOFR to spike, which creates stress in money markets. 2) Rising bond yields TGA is often funded by increasing T-bill supply. This pushes bond prices lower and yields higher, which is bad for the economy. 3) Downward pressure on assets When TGA rises quickly, SOFR spikes and bond yields surge. Both of them are bad for risk-on assets, especially crypto. In October 2025, the TGA balance almost reached $1T, and we all saw what happened to the crypto market after that. What could happen next? When liquidity gets drained, the crypto market feels it the earliest. Also, May has started, which has historically been bearish for the crypto market during mid-term election years. This doesn't mean BTC will drop immediately, but from here, the max pain is to the downside.

THIS IS REALLY CONCERNING 🇺🇸 US government's cash balance has almost reached $1T, its highest level in 5 years. The TGA (Treasury General Account) balance is up $300 billion over the past month, reaching almost $1 trillion. TGA is the US government's primary operating account, held at the Fed. When TGA balance rises, it drains liquidity from the system. When TGA balance falls, it pumps liquidity into the system. Right now, TGA balance is increasing at a rapid pace, which means liquidity is being taken out. Here's why this is bad: 1) Liquidity drain When TGA rises, bank reserves fall. This reduces the cash banks have available to lend or hold as buffers. When this gets extreme, it causes SOFR to spike, which creates stress in money markets. 2) Rising bond yields TGA is often funded by increasing T-bill supply. This pushes bond prices lower and yields higher, which is bad for the economy. 3) Downward pressure on assets When TGA rises quickly, SOFR spikes and bond yields surge. Both of them are bad for risk-on assets, especially crypto. In October 2025, the TGA balance almost reached $1T, and we all saw what happened to the crypto market after that. What could happen next? When liquidity gets drained, the crypto market feels it the earliest. Also, May has started, which has historically been bearish for the crypto market during mid-term election years. This doesn't mean BTC will drop immediately, but from here, the max pain is to the downside.

Crypto Rover

67,757 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

🚨 They’re Emptying America’s Gold Vaults: Europe Moved Its Gold Out of America and Into the One Place That Answers to No Government Over 500 tonnes of sovereign gold fled the United States. Guess Who’s Holding It Now: The City Of London. France just yanked EVERY last ounce, 129 tonnes, out of the New York Fed. The Netherlands and Germany followed by pulling ~86 and 300 tonnes from U.S. vaults and shipping it straight to London. The City of London: the one square mile that has never been fully subject to the same laws as the rest of Britain. A medieval corporation with its own police, its own courts, its own Lord Mayor, and a centuries-old mandate to engineer money, credit, and crisis on a global scale. While nations argue about tariffs and elections, the City quietly accumulates the physical metal that underwrites the entire system. Gold has surpassed U.S. Treasuries as global reserve asset. China is building a global network of gold vaults after China announced internationalizing the Chinese Yuan for trade and settlement for the first time ever. Hong Kong’s Government-Backed Gold Clearing System Began Trial Operations Linked To Shanghai Gold Exchange. When the next shock hits… sanctions, dollar weaponization, or something worse, the gold that used to sit under American concrete will already be sitting under the Square Mile. Ready to be pledged, leased, or frozen by the only jurisdiction that has always operated above the nation-state. They told you it was about “liquidity” and “crisis resilience.” They’re concentrating the real power in the one place that answers to no electorate. Watch the vaults. The metal is moving. The control is following it. This was exactly warned the famous City of London banker Lord Belgrave at the start of year. “The City was well aware of the situation and a financial crisis will be engineered by the central banks, IMF, BIS and G-SIBs.”

🚨 They’re Emptying America’s Gold Vaults: Europe Moved Its Gold Out of America and Into the One Place That Answers to No Government Over 500 tonnes of sovereign gold fled the United States. Guess Who’s Holding It Now: The City Of London. France just yanked EVERY last ounce, 129 tonnes, out of the New York Fed. The Netherlands and Germany followed by pulling ~86 and 300 tonnes from U.S. vaults and shipping it straight to London. The City of London: the one square mile that has never been fully subject to the same laws as the rest of Britain. A medieval corporation with its own police, its own courts, its own Lord Mayor, and a centuries-old mandate to engineer money, credit, and crisis on a global scale. While nations argue about tariffs and elections, the City quietly accumulates the physical metal that underwrites the entire system. Gold has surpassed U.S. Treasuries as global reserve asset. China is building a global network of gold vaults after China announced internationalizing the Chinese Yuan for trade and settlement for the first time ever. Hong Kong’s Government-Backed Gold Clearing System Began Trial Operations Linked To Shanghai Gold Exchange. When the next shock hits… sanctions, dollar weaponization, or something worse, the gold that used to sit under American concrete will already be sitting under the Square Mile. Ready to be pledged, leased, or frozen by the only jurisdiction that has always operated above the nation-state. They told you it was about “liquidity” and “crisis resilience.” They’re concentrating the real power in the one place that answers to no electorate. Watch the vaults. The metal is moving. The control is following it. This was exactly warned the famous City of London banker Lord Belgrave at the start of year. “The City was well aware of the situation and a financial crisis will be engineered by the central banks, IMF, BIS and G-SIBs.”

Stern Drew

557,406 Aufrufe • vor 14 Tagen

This could be one of the most volatile weeks crypto has seen in a while. Senate first procedural vote on the CLARITY Act is expected on Tuesday. One day later, the Fed announces its interest-rate decision, with markets now pricing close to a 90% chance of a 25bps hike. Neither event leaves much room for traders to relax. ETH is already moving like the market knows what’s coming. Sharp wicks, quick reversals and no real commitment in either direction. A large part of the expected hike is probably already reflected in price by now. That doesn’t remove the risk of another sell-off when the decision arrives but it does raise the possibility of a “sell the rumor, buy the news” reaction once the uncertainty is gone. ETF side is helping too. US spot Ethereum ETFs recently recorded around $218M in weekly net inflows, marking a third consecutive positive week. So while short-term traders are reducing risk ahead of the Fed, regulated capital is still adding exposure. Chart comes down to a few levels for me, • $2,405 - main demand and structural invalidation • $2,520 - short-term pivot • $2,600 - breakout confirmation • $2,750 - first expansion target Holding above $2,405 keeps consolidation intact. A clean reclaim of $2,520 would bring $2,600 back into play. If ETH gets through that area after the Fed and holds it, $2,750 becomes the next level I’m watching. This week is about surviving the volatility. Stronger move may begin once the vote, the Fed and the leverage around both events are finally behind us.

This could be one of the most volatile weeks crypto has seen in a while. Senate first procedural vote on the CLARITY Act is expected on Tuesday. One day later, the Fed announces its interest-rate decision, with markets now pricing close to a 90% chance of a 25bps hike. Neither event leaves much room for traders to relax. ETH is already moving like the market knows what’s coming. Sharp wicks, quick reversals and no real commitment in either direction. A large part of the expected hike is probably already reflected in price by now. That doesn’t remove the risk of another sell-off when the decision arrives but it does raise the possibility of a “sell the rumor, buy the news” reaction once the uncertainty is gone. ETF side is helping too. US spot Ethereum ETFs recently recorded around $218M in weekly net inflows, marking a third consecutive positive week. So while short-term traders are reducing risk ahead of the Fed, regulated capital is still adding exposure. Chart comes down to a few levels for me, • $2,405 - main demand and structural invalidation • $2,520 - short-term pivot • $2,600 - breakout confirmation • $2,750 - first expansion target Holding above $2,405 keeps consolidation intact. A clean reclaim of $2,520 would bring $2,600 back into play. If ETH gets through that area after the Fed and holds it, $2,750 becomes the next level I’m watching. This week is about surviving the volatility. Stronger move may begin once the vote, the Fed and the leverage around both events are finally behind us.

Arjantit

30,356 Aufrufe • vor 6 Tagen

🚨 WARNING: TOMORROW WILL BE THE WORST DAY OF 2026!! → The new Fed Chair confirmed interest rate HIKES. → Iran just officially CANCELLED the peace deal and launched ballistic missiles. → China and Japan started dumping U.S. Treasuries. When markets open on Monday, this won't be “just another dip.” Stocks will dump. Bonds will dump. Gold and Silver will dump. Bitcoin will dump even harder. Insiders already know what comes next. They are not buying the dip. They are cutting exposure and positioning for the largest risk-off event of the year. Meanwhile, pressure is building across the global financial system. China is reducing foreign Treasury holdings. At the same time, volatility in Japan's bond market has forced policymakers back into liquidity support measures. When the world's largest creditors step back from debt markets at the same time, liquidity disappears fast. → Japanese bond yields are surging → Foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries is weakening → Global bond markets are under severe pressure → Energy markets remain unstable → Liquidity is tightening worldwide → Volatility is spreading across every major asset class This is no longer an isolated problem. This is systemic pressure building across MULTIPLE fronts at the same time. And now geopolitical risk is entering the equation. Diplomatic efforts are breaking down. Tensions are escalating. Markets do not price uncertainty forever. They price ESCALATION. And once markets begin pricing the possibility of a prolonged regional conflict... Energy markets become impossible to stabilize. Oil does not move gradually. It goes parabolic. Shipping routes become vulnerable. Supply chains become disrupted. Inflation accelerates globally. Which means interest rates remain higher for longer. And risk assets? They do not dip. They DUMP. This is exactly how chain reactions begin. Because once markets start pricing prolonged instability instead of temporary uncertainty, the entire framework changes. I have spent years tracking macro trends, liquidity cycles, and systemic market reactions like this. When the next move becomes obvious, I will share it publicly. Follow and turn notifications on. Because by the time it reaches the headlines, it is already too late.

🚨 WARNING: TOMORROW WILL BE THE WORST DAY OF 2026!! → The new Fed Chair confirmed interest rate HIKES. → Iran just officially CANCELLED the peace deal and launched ballistic missiles. → China and Japan started dumping U.S. Treasuries. When markets open on Monday, this won't be “just another dip.” Stocks will dump. Bonds will dump. Gold and Silver will dump. Bitcoin will dump even harder. Insiders already know what comes next. They are not buying the dip. They are cutting exposure and positioning for the largest risk-off event of the year. Meanwhile, pressure is building across the global financial system. China is reducing foreign Treasury holdings. At the same time, volatility in Japan's bond market has forced policymakers back into liquidity support measures. When the world's largest creditors step back from debt markets at the same time, liquidity disappears fast. → Japanese bond yields are surging → Foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries is weakening → Global bond markets are under severe pressure → Energy markets remain unstable → Liquidity is tightening worldwide → Volatility is spreading across every major asset class This is no longer an isolated problem. This is systemic pressure building across MULTIPLE fronts at the same time. And now geopolitical risk is entering the equation. Diplomatic efforts are breaking down. Tensions are escalating. Markets do not price uncertainty forever. They price ESCALATION. And once markets begin pricing the possibility of a prolonged regional conflict... Energy markets become impossible to stabilize. Oil does not move gradually. It goes parabolic. Shipping routes become vulnerable. Supply chains become disrupted. Inflation accelerates globally. Which means interest rates remain higher for longer. And risk assets? They do not dip. They DUMP. This is exactly how chain reactions begin. Because once markets start pricing prolonged instability instead of temporary uncertainty, the entire framework changes. I have spent years tracking macro trends, liquidity cycles, and systemic market reactions like this. When the next move becomes obvious, I will share it publicly. Follow and turn notifications on. Because by the time it reaches the headlines, it is already too late.

0xNobler

214,675 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

THE REAL REASON BITCOIN JUST PUMPED TO $69,700 (and will keep pumping) Everyone is staring at the green Bitcoin candle, but the move started somewhere else entirely, in the US Treasury bond market The Treasury just doubled its long-term bond buyback program old max: $2 billion per operation new max: at least $4 billion targets: the 10 to 20 and 20 to 30 year bonds runs from September 9 through November 4 In plain terms, the Treasury is stepping in to support the market for long-term government debt That matters because when Treasury yields fall, risk assets like Bitcoin get more attractive Right after the announcement the yields dropped 10 year: -6 bps to 4.647% 30 year: -9 bps to 5.196% Then Bitcoin ripped $65,400 at 10:45 AM -> $67,600 at 11:26 AM -> $69,700 at 11:27 AM It gained more than $2,000 in a single minute That candle trapped everyone shorting Bitcoin, their leveraged shorts got liquidated and the forced buying pushed price even higher $1.59 billion in crypto liquidations in 24 hours $746 million in Bitcoin shorts wiped out in that one minute candle The chain was simple Treasury expands buybacks -> long-term yields fall -> Bitcoin pumps -> shorts get liquidated -> forced buying sends it even higher One correction, this is not QE and the Fed did not turn on the printer The Treasury is just buying back existing bonds to add liquidity, and the size is still small next to how much debt the US issues But the timing is the tell, the bond market moved first and Bitcoin followed, then the short squeeze turned it into an explosion Everyone is showing you the candle, almost nobody is talking about what happened right before it September 9 is the date to watch now

THE REAL REASON BITCOIN JUST PUMPED TO $69,700 (and will keep pumping) Everyone is staring at the green Bitcoin candle, but the move started somewhere else entirely, in the US Treasury bond market The Treasury just doubled its long-term bond buyback program old max: $2 billion per operation new max: at least $4 billion targets: the 10 to 20 and 20 to 30 year bonds runs from September 9 through November 4 In plain terms, the Treasury is stepping in to support the market for long-term government debt That matters because when Treasury yields fall, risk assets like Bitcoin get more attractive Right after the announcement the yields dropped 10 year: -6 bps to 4.647% 30 year: -9 bps to 5.196% Then Bitcoin ripped $65,400 at 10:45 AM -> $67,600 at 11:26 AM -> $69,700 at 11:27 AM It gained more than $2,000 in a single minute That candle trapped everyone shorting Bitcoin, their leveraged shorts got liquidated and the forced buying pushed price even higher $1.59 billion in crypto liquidations in 24 hours $746 million in Bitcoin shorts wiped out in that one minute candle The chain was simple Treasury expands buybacks -> long-term yields fall -> Bitcoin pumps -> shorts get liquidated -> forced buying sends it even higher One correction, this is not QE and the Fed did not turn on the printer The Treasury is just buying back existing bonds to add liquidity, and the size is still small next to how much debt the US issues But the timing is the tell, the bond market moved first and Bitcoin followed, then the short squeeze turned it into an explosion Everyone is showing you the candle, almost nobody is talking about what happened right before it September 9 is the date to watch now

Atlas

774,784 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Crypto liquidity has a habit of moving before the headline actually arrives. Hunter Biden recently teased $LAPTOP for September 9, with the token reportedly launching on Base. Since then, I’ve noticed more people talking about taking profits and keeping funds ready for the launch. There’s no clean data proving that LAPTOP caused the recent liquidity drain and it would be a stretch to blame one upcoming memecoin for the whole market cooling off. Rotation itself makes sense. When CT expects a major launch, traders often sell part of whatever has already run, move into stables and wait. That temporarily leaves less liquidity behind for the coins they exited. It’s one of those market dynamics that rarely shows up clearly on a chart but you can usually feel it in the price action. Bitcoin is showing some of that risk-off mood as well. $78.0K-$78.4K area is the first place I want to see defended. Price still has lower-high pressure above it and $79.6K remains the short-term pivot. Get back through $80.4K and the structure starts looking better, with $81.2K becoming the next liquidity area. Lose $78K and I’d expect the market to stay cautious while capital waits for its next destination. Sometimes the money doesn’t leave crypto. It just parks somewhere else for a while.

Crypto liquidity has a habit of moving before the headline actually arrives. Hunter Biden recently teased $LAPTOP for September 9, with the token reportedly launching on Base. Since then, I’ve noticed more people talking about taking profits and keeping funds ready for the launch. There’s no clean data proving that LAPTOP caused the recent liquidity drain and it would be a stretch to blame one upcoming memecoin for the whole market cooling off. Rotation itself makes sense. When CT expects a major launch, traders often sell part of whatever has already run, move into stables and wait. That temporarily leaves less liquidity behind for the coins they exited. It’s one of those market dynamics that rarely shows up clearly on a chart but you can usually feel it in the price action. Bitcoin is showing some of that risk-off mood as well. $78.0K-$78.4K area is the first place I want to see defended. Price still has lower-high pressure above it and $79.6K remains the short-term pivot. Get back through $80.4K and the structure starts looking better, with $81.2K becoming the next liquidity area. Lose $78K and I’d expect the market to stay cautious while capital waits for its next destination. Sometimes the money doesn’t leave crypto. It just parks somewhere else for a while.

Arjantit

20,343 Aufrufe • vor 12 Tagen

🚨 SOMETHING MUCH BIGGER MAY BE BUILDING BEHIND THE SCENES. Warnings about food, energy, debt, AI, and financial instability are suddenly coming from some of the most powerful people in global finance. JPMorgan research has warned that the next major global food crisis may not be short-lived and could emerge as soon as next year. Bill Gates has also been warning about hunger, malnutrition, and child mortality moving in the wrong direction after decades of progress. At the same time, Jamie Dimon says the risks are "bigger than other people think" and continues warning about serious stress building in bond markets. Ray Dalio, central bankers, and energy executives keep circling around the same risks: Food. Energy. War. Debt. AI disruption. WHEN THIS MANY PEOPLE ARE WARNING ABOUT THE SAME THINGS AT THE SAME TIME, IT'S WORTH PAYING ATTENTION. Now comments attributed to Bank of Japan voice Yuto 🇯🇵 are adding another layer to the story: the idea that policymakers could eventually point to an outside crisis as the explanation for economic pain already building underneath the system. We've seen a version of this sequence before. In 2019, the repo market suddenly seized up. Liquidity disappeared, overnight funding rates exploded into double digits, and the Fed was forced to inject cash into the system. Then COVID arrived. What followed was one of the largest monetary responses in modern history, with trillions of dollars created to keep the financial system functioning. THE FINANCIAL STRESS STARTED BEFORE THE CRISIS DID. And today, the underlying problems are arguably even larger. Global debt keeps climbing. Government deficits have become structural. Bond yields remain difficult to contain. Foreign demand for Treasuries is under pressure in key markets. Meanwhile, central banks have been accumulating gold at an extraordinary pace. THE WORLD'S MONETARY AUTHORITIES ARE CLEARLY PREPARING FOR A DIFFERENT KIND OF SYSTEM. That doesn't prove anyone is engineering the next crisis. But if another major shock hits food, energy, AI, or global trade while the financial system is already under pressure, governments and central banks could once again have the justification for extraordinary monetary intervention. THE REAL QUESTION ISN'T WHETHER THE NEXT SHOCK COMES? IT'S WHAT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM WILL LOOK LIKE AFTER IT DOES!👀

🚨 SOMETHING MUCH BIGGER MAY BE BUILDING BEHIND THE SCENES. Warnings about food, energy, debt, AI, and financial instability are suddenly coming from some of the most powerful people in global finance. JPMorgan research has warned that the next major global food crisis may not be short-lived and could emerge as soon as next year. Bill Gates has also been warning about hunger, malnutrition, and child mortality moving in the wrong direction after decades of progress. At the same time, Jamie Dimon says the risks are "bigger than other people think" and continues warning about serious stress building in bond markets. Ray Dalio, central bankers, and energy executives keep circling around the same risks: Food. Energy. War. Debt. AI disruption. WHEN THIS MANY PEOPLE ARE WARNING ABOUT THE SAME THINGS AT THE SAME TIME, IT'S WORTH PAYING ATTENTION. Now comments attributed to Bank of Japan voice Yuto 🇯🇵 are adding another layer to the story: the idea that policymakers could eventually point to an outside crisis as the explanation for economic pain already building underneath the system. We've seen a version of this sequence before. In 2019, the repo market suddenly seized up. Liquidity disappeared, overnight funding rates exploded into double digits, and the Fed was forced to inject cash into the system. Then COVID arrived. What followed was one of the largest monetary responses in modern history, with trillions of dollars created to keep the financial system functioning. THE FINANCIAL STRESS STARTED BEFORE THE CRISIS DID. And today, the underlying problems are arguably even larger. Global debt keeps climbing. Government deficits have become structural. Bond yields remain difficult to contain. Foreign demand for Treasuries is under pressure in key markets. Meanwhile, central banks have been accumulating gold at an extraordinary pace. THE WORLD'S MONETARY AUTHORITIES ARE CLEARLY PREPARING FOR A DIFFERENT KIND OF SYSTEM. That doesn't prove anyone is engineering the next crisis. But if another major shock hits food, energy, AI, or global trade while the financial system is already under pressure, governments and central banks could once again have the justification for extraordinary monetary intervention. THE REAL QUESTION ISN'T WHETHER THE NEXT SHOCK COMES? IT'S WHAT THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM WILL LOOK LIKE AFTER IT DOES!👀

DANNY

140,608 Aufrufe • vor 14 Tagen

🚨 CHINA IS BUILDING THE FOUNDATION FOR A NEW GOLD-BASED FINANCIAL ORDER. At today’s BRICS summit in India, Xi Jinping announced that China will take the presidency and open a third “GOLDEN DECADE.” That wording matters because it comes while China has been buying gold for 22 straight months, Hong Kong has launched a government-backed gold clearing system linked to Shanghai, and Beijing is pushing the yuan deeper into global trade and settlement. At the same time, BRICS countries are expanding alternative payment infrastructure designed to reduce dependence on SWIFT and the dollar system, while China has dumped roughly $70 BILLION in U.S. Treasuries in one of its biggest sell-offs since the financial crisis. THIS IS NOT RANDOM RESERVE MANAGEMENT. China is buying more gold, holding fewer Treasuries, expanding yuan settlement, and building the infrastructure for a more independent financial system. They do not need to announce that they are replacing the dollar tomorrow. The strategy is already visible in what they are building. THE GOLD IS BEING STACKED, THE TREASURIES ARE BEING SOLD, AND THE YUAN IS MOVING DEEPER INTO GLOBAL TRADE. This is how a monetary system starts to change: not with one announcement, but with a parallel system being built underneath the old one!👀

🚨 CHINA IS BUILDING THE FOUNDATION FOR A NEW GOLD-BASED FINANCIAL ORDER. At today’s BRICS summit in India, Xi Jinping announced that China will take the presidency and open a third “GOLDEN DECADE.” That wording matters because it comes while China has been buying gold for 22 straight months, Hong Kong has launched a government-backed gold clearing system linked to Shanghai, and Beijing is pushing the yuan deeper into global trade and settlement. At the same time, BRICS countries are expanding alternative payment infrastructure designed to reduce dependence on SWIFT and the dollar system, while China has dumped roughly $70 BILLION in U.S. Treasuries in one of its biggest sell-offs since the financial crisis. THIS IS NOT RANDOM RESERVE MANAGEMENT. China is buying more gold, holding fewer Treasuries, expanding yuan settlement, and building the infrastructure for a more independent financial system. They do not need to announce that they are replacing the dollar tomorrow. The strategy is already visible in what they are building. THE GOLD IS BEING STACKED, THE TREASURIES ARE BEING SOLD, AND THE YUAN IS MOVING DEEPER INTO GLOBAL TRADE. This is how a monetary system starts to change: not with one announcement, but with a parallel system being built underneath the old one!👀

Qmo

51,992 Aufrufe • vor 8 Tagen

Let's school the brain fogged PM on the performance of Indian Banks. Narendra Modi walked into SRCC yesterday and delivered perhaps the first non-performing timeline in the college’s hundred-year history: "2008 में बैंकों का संकट आया था, तो तब की सरकार ने 2000 तक उस संकट के पीछे छुपने की कोशिश की थी।" According to Modi, a banking crisis arrived in 2008 and the govt hid behind it until 2000. Eight years backwards. Modiji has apparently taken the country so far ahead that even chronology has started moving in reverse. The 2008 global financial crisis brought down some of the biggest names in international finance. Between 2008 and 2013, 489 insured banks and thrifts failed in the United States alone. India was certainly affected through its stock market, exports and economic growth. But its banking system remained standing. NOT ONE INDIAN COMMERCIAL BANK FAILED because of the subprime crisis. The RBI recorded that Indian banks had no direct exposure to the American subprime market and that the Indian banking system experienced no contagion. That was not cowardice. That was prudent regulation and competent crisis management by the RBI and Dr Manmohan Singh's govt. If Modi wanted actual examples of banks reaching the edge, he could have looked at his own tenure. By the beginning of 2019, eleven public sector banks and one private bank had been placed under the RBI’s Prompt Corrective Action framework. The govt had to announce a ₹2.1 lakh crore recapitalisation package. In 2020, Yes Bank was placed under a moratorium after what the RBI described as its "rapidly deteriorating financial position" and "serious governance issues". It required an SBI-led reconstruction. Lakshmi Vilas Bank was placed under a moratorium and had to be amalgamated with DBS Bank India. PMC Bank depositors were initially permitted to withdraw only ₹1,000 of their own money after the RBI discovered major financial irregularities, failed internal controls and false reporting. The bank was eventually amalgamated with Unity Small Finance Bank. Under Dr Manmohan Singh, a global banking earthquake struck and no Indian commercial bank fell. Under Modi, depositors at crisis-hit Indian banks were told how much of their own money they could withdraw. One has to admire the audacity. He walked into the country's most prestigious commerce college, rewrote the history of the global financial crisis, erased the banking emergencies of his own tenure and expected the students to applaud. At WhatsApp University, this may pass as economics. At SRCC, it is a fraudulent balance sheet.

Let's school the brain fogged PM on the performance of Indian Banks. Narendra Modi walked into SRCC yesterday and delivered perhaps the first non-performing timeline in the college’s hundred-year history: "2008 में बैंकों का संकट आया था, तो तब की सरकार ने 2000 तक उस संकट के पीछे छुपने की कोशिश की थी।" According to Modi, a banking crisis arrived in 2008 and the govt hid behind it until 2000. Eight years backwards. Modiji has apparently taken the country so far ahead that even chronology has started moving in reverse. The 2008 global financial crisis brought down some of the biggest names in international finance. Between 2008 and 2013, 489 insured banks and thrifts failed in the United States alone. India was certainly affected through its stock market, exports and economic growth. But its banking system remained standing. NOT ONE INDIAN COMMERCIAL BANK FAILED because of the subprime crisis. The RBI recorded that Indian banks had no direct exposure to the American subprime market and that the Indian banking system experienced no contagion. That was not cowardice. That was prudent regulation and competent crisis management by the RBI and Dr Manmohan Singh's govt. If Modi wanted actual examples of banks reaching the edge, he could have looked at his own tenure. By the beginning of 2019, eleven public sector banks and one private bank had been placed under the RBI’s Prompt Corrective Action framework. The govt had to announce a ₹2.1 lakh crore recapitalisation package. In 2020, Yes Bank was placed under a moratorium after what the RBI described as its "rapidly deteriorating financial position" and "serious governance issues". It required an SBI-led reconstruction. Lakshmi Vilas Bank was placed under a moratorium and had to be amalgamated with DBS Bank India. PMC Bank depositors were initially permitted to withdraw only ₹1,000 of their own money after the RBI discovered major financial irregularities, failed internal controls and false reporting. The bank was eventually amalgamated with Unity Small Finance Bank. Under Dr Manmohan Singh, a global banking earthquake struck and no Indian commercial bank fell. Under Modi, depositors at crisis-hit Indian banks were told how much of their own money they could withdraw. One has to admire the audacity. He walked into the country's most prestigious commerce college, rewrote the history of the global financial crisis, erased the banking emergencies of his own tenure and expected the students to applaud. At WhatsApp University, this may pass as economics. At SRCC, it is a fraudulent balance sheet.

Gaurav Pandhi

15,340 Aufrufe • vor 14 Tagen